Good morning, friends, and welcome to the first week of a new month. We spent our weekend wading through the wonderful feedback we got from all of you following our first issue on Thursday. From the bottom of our hearts, thank you — it is an honor for us to write to you every morning.

THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY in our part of the world- The Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) agreed to provide Egypt with EUR 318 mn in financing for the 660-km first phase of the Sokhna-Alexandria high-speed rail line.

^^ We have all the details on this story and more in the news well, below.

HAPPENING TODAY-

It’s the beginning of a new month (and quarter),with a handful of notable changes for logistics players in the region:

#1- UAE-Israel agreement on non-oil trade comes into effect: TheUAE-IsraelComprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which could see non-oil bilateral trade between the countries reach upwards of USD 10 bn, came into effect at the beginning of the month,according to a statement from the UAE’s Economy Ministry. The agreement will remove trade barriers, facilitate the international expansion of SMEs, and reduce or eliminate tariffs on 96% of product lines between the countries.

This is the latest in a series of similar agreements for the UAE, which has finalized pacts with India, Indonesia, Turkey and Georgia, the statement said. The agreements come as part of the country’s push to double its GDP to AED 3 tn by 2030.

#2- Higher Suez Canal transit fees for oil tankers went into effect at the beginning of the month. Tankers carrying crude oil and petroleum products will now be subjected to a 25% surcharge, while their empty counterparts are to pay an extra 15%, up from 5% for both laden and ballast vessels.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- KMG and ADPcould expand oil tanker fleet: KazMunayGas (KMG) and Abu Dhabi Ports(ADP) discussed the possibility of buying a tanker fleet with a deadweight of 8-12k tons for their JV, Caspian Integrated Maritime Solutions (CIMS), earmarked for the transport of oil through the Caspian and Black seas, according to a press release. Talks also involved the development of a service fleet specifically for the Kazakhstan area of the Caspian Sea. The JV was established in February of this year.

#2- Iraq to resume northern oil exports this week: Iraq’s federal government and the Kurdistan regional government (KRG) have reached an initial agreement to resume Kurdish oil exports through Turkey this week, KRG head Lawk Ghafuri said on Twitter. The agreement will continue to be in effect until an oil and gas law is approved by the Iraqi government, Ghafuri writes.

Refresher: The pact follows the recent arbitration case that halted oil exports of some 400k bpd of oil coming out of the Kurdish region of Iraq to Turkey, without the consent of Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO). The agreement will allow SOMO and KRG to jointly export and supervise Iraq's oil, Reuters cited an Iraqi official and KRG official as saying during the talks leading up to the agreement. Revenues of oil exports will be deposited into KRG’s ministry of natural resources account, and be supervised by Iraq’s federal government, the Iraqi official reportedly told Reuters.

DATA POINT- Egypt’s Alexandria Port had its busiest month in seven years in March, which saw a 42.2% m-o-m increase in the movement of ships, according to a port authority statement. Some 404 vessels called at the port in in March, 120 more than the previous month. Bulk vessels saw the highest rate of increase from February, rising 91% m-o-m, while ferries rose 83.2%, and general cargo vessels surged 41.3%.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Take that, Bretton Woods: A challenge to the USD’s dominance in global trade? China and Brazil said last week they will ditch the greenback and carry out bilateral trade in their domestic currencies last week, AFPreports. Egypt and India, meanwhile, are considering executing their trade in INR,Bloombergreports, citing an Indian government official. The greenback’s position at the center of global trade took another hit a few days ago when China settled a bill for LNG imports from the UAE in CNY for the first time. The country is also in talks with Saudi Arabia for a similar arrangement to settle oil shipments.

The man behind BRICS wants more: Former Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill is urging BRICS nations to expand and work together to curb the USD’s hegemony as the currency of international trade, according to a recently published paper picked up by Bloomberg. The economist — who was the first to coin the acronym BRICS — stressed that this realignment makes more than just good sense, saying the USD “plays a far too dominant role in global finance” and has “dramatic” knock-on effects. He also urged the bloc to restrict new admissions to members which further the group’s agenda and that the alliance zero in on initiatives that “focus on climate finance, improving healthcare and boosting trade,” according to the business information service.

Egypt wants to cut its reliance on the USD + get access to more development finance: Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi signed off on a multilateral agreement for Egypt to join the ranks of BRICS’ USD 100 bn multilateral lender New Development Bank (NDB) last week. The deputy chairman of Egypt’s House Economic Committee, Mohamed Abdel Hamid, said in January the move was part of a bid to curb the USD’s dominance of global trade.

About the NDB: The NDB is a multilateral development bank set up in 2014 by the BRICS to fund infrastructure projects in its member countries.

SOUND SMART- Why do countries trade with each other in USD? You can thank the Bretton Woods process in the wake of the Second World War. Listen to this great podcast from Planet Money (listen, runtime: 19:00) or read the transcript here.

MARKET WATCH-

OPEC+ yesterday made a surprise oil production cut of c.1.2 mn barrels per day (bbl / d) in a move that should translate into higher prices — and fresh global economic risk,Bloomberg reports. The production cuts came a day before the alliance’s ministerial panel was set to meet. Saudi Arabia led the herd, pledging a cut of 500k bbl / d, while the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Algeria also said they would cut production.

Analysts were caught flatfooted, havingpenciled in table output from tomorrow’s meeting through the end of 2023 amid heightened global inflation and concerns over supply. Oil traders see oil prices rising in 2H 2023 as demand grows by some 2 mn bbl / d this year, fuelled by China’s full emergence from years of covid-19 lockdowns, the business information service reports.

OPEC+’s oil production was already estimated to have declined in March due to oilfield maintenance in Angola and a halt in some of Iraq exports, according to a Reuters survey. The survey suggests OPEC+ pumped 28.9 mn bbl / d in March, down 70k bbl / d from February and more than 700k bbl / d from September. Iraq — one of OPEC’s biggest producers — saw its oil revenues fall around 33% y-o-y in March to USD 7.4 bn, weighed down by a drop in oil prices driven by the turmoil in the global banking industry, Zawyareported yesterday.

ICYMI- Crude futures plummet to c.USD 70 — a 15-month low — in tandem with the global banking crisis before paring losses to USD 80. The pledges bring the total volume of cuts by OPEC+ to 3.66 mn bbl / d, Reuters estimates.

MEANWHILE- The Baltic Dry Index, the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index fell to a six-week low last week on the back of lower shipping rates for capesize and supramax vessels, Reutersreports. The overall index — which takes into account the rates for capesize, panamax, and supramax shipping vessels — fell 1%, its lowest since 9 March. The capesize index fell 11.5% for the second consecutive week, while the supramax index was also down 10.1% for the week. Baltic Dry tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk goods.

Global sea freight volumes fell 2.5% in 4Q 2022, despite the final quarter traditionally being the busiest period of the year, according to the Global Shippers Forum’s container shipping market quarterly review, picked up by Supply Chain Digital. The report showed that sea trade volumes continued to fall steadily in early 2023 amid persistent inflation, high energy prices, and dimmed consumer demand for goods.

“This has stopped being just a supply chain or a shipping issue. Shippers and carriers are firmly in the hands of global economic forces,” Secretary General of Global Shippers Forum James Hookham said, adding that, although shippers have “undoubtedly benefited from the dramatic fall in spot rates over the past nine months,” weak demand “will be of more concern to shippers than the cost of their shipment.”

ALSO WORTH KNOWING ABOUT THIS MORNING-

India extends export ban on diesel and gasoline: India’s government will extendexportbans on diesel and gasoline in a bid to secure adequate domestic supply,Reuters reports, citing a notification from the Indian government. The government has asked refiners to redirect 50% of their annual gasoline exports and 30% of diesel exports to the domestic market. India had put the restrictions in place last year, after some refiners prioritized the re-export of marked-down Russian oil over domestic supplies.

AND- More than 100 lorries carrying flour for Yemeni traders are being held at checkpoints in Sanaa, Taiz, and Al Bayda, Arab News reports. The flour is being held by militia to push traders to pay their taxes, Arab News says.

Tags: