World Bank slashes our economic growth forecasts. PLUS: Vision 2030 enters final phase

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: US reportedly on the way to offer us a USD 100 bn arms package

Good morning. We’re ready to kickstart the week with a trove of data on the flourishing Saudi economy. In this morning’s news well, We have the latest growth forecasts from the World Bank, as well as a deep dive into the targets of Vision 2030, as the ambitious transformation strategy embarks on its final phase.

FIRST- We got an early snapshot from SPA of how non-oil exports performed in 2024, and it’s looking good. Non-oil exports reached an all-time high of SAR 515 bn (USD 137 bn) last year, logging a 13% y-o-y increase and a 113% jump since the inauguration of Vision 2030. Services exports reached SAR 207 bn, growing 14% y-o-y and 220% since Vision 2030, buoyed by exceptional growth in the travel and tourism sectors.

** We’ll get to dive deep in the official international trade figures for 2024 when they’re out from Gastat next Wednesday. Until then, we have our trade numbers in February 2025, in today’s issue.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Aqaseem Factory for Chemicals and Plastics opens subscription for its SAR 50 mn, five-year sukuk today, offering a 10% annual coupon rate to be paid in two-yearly installments, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Interested investors can subscribe to a minimum of five units each at a par value of SAR 1k until Thursday, 8 May.

REFRESHER- This issuance is Aqaseem’s first public debt issuance under a SAR 500 mn LCY borrowing program. Proceeds from the sukuk sale will be used to fund capital and operational expenses, launch new business activities, and acquire new facilities.

The two-day Saudi Statistics Forum begins today at the Movenpick Hotel in Riyadh, bringing together over 300 regional and international data experts to discuss key topics in the field of statistics.

WEATHER- Clouds will gather over Riyadh, haze will linger in Makkah, and breezes will sweep through Madinah.

Riyadh: 31°C daytime / 24°C overnight
Makkah: 42°C daytime / 29°C overnight
Madinah: 40°C daytime / 24°C overnight

WATCH THIS SPACE-

The US is preparing to offer Saudi Arabia an arms package valued at “well over USD 100 bn” during US President Donald Trump’s visit to the Kingdom in May, Reuters reported on Friday, citing sources it said are in the know. Several defense company executives are reportedly considering traveling to the region as part of a delegation, three sources told the newswire.

Which companies will be involved? Military airplane manufacturers Lockheed Martin and Boeing, aerospace and defense firms RTX Corp (formerly Raytheon) and Northrop Grumman, and nuclear energy technology and drone manufacturer General Atomics have all been mentioned as potential suppliers.

What we know so far: Lockheed Martin is expected to supply advanced weapons systems, including C-130 transport aircraft, missiles, and radars, according to the sources. General Atomics has also been involved in a USD 20 bn agreement, including MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones and other aircraft. All potential sales of advanced weaponry are subject to congressional approval.

BACKGROUND- The Biden administration lifted a three-year ban on the sale of offensive weapons to the Kingdom in August, saying that Riyadh upheld its end of an agreement with Washington on drawing back its conflict with the Houthis in Yemen.

London-based Virgin Group is eyeing tourism investments in Saudi Arabia, including the opening of a hotel, cruise operation, and space tourism, CEO Richard Branson said during a press conference held at King Khaled International Airport (KKIA), Alsharq Al Awsat reports. Branson explained that the airline is the first step before deploying other group brands like Virgin Holidays, Virgin Voyages, and Virgin Galactic.

IN CONTEXT- Branson made the comments during a press conference to celebrate Virgin Atlantic’s first daily flight from London’s Heathrow Airport to Riyadh’s KKIA. This follows a September agreement to launch daily Riyadh-London flights under a partnership with the Saudi Air Connectivity Program.

OIL WATCH-

Several Opec+ members are expected to push for a faster increase in oil production in June as disagreements grow over some countries defying their output quotas, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing three sources it said are familiar with the talks. Eight Opec+ members will meet on 5 May to decide on the June output plan, with some members eying a similar output hike to the May output plan of 411k barrels per day (bbl / d).

BUT- A few members — including Russia — favor slower, more gradual output increases to avoid putting pressure on prices, two separate Opec+ sources told the newswire.

ICYMI- Kazakhstan’s new Energy Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov stated last week that the country will prioritize its own needs when deciding on oil production levels, even if it goes against Opec+. He also emphasized that Kazakhstan cannot cut output at its major oil fields, as they are operated by foreign companies.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The world’s press descended on the Vatican for the Pope’s funeral — but of course Trump managed to steal the spotlight. A meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — their first since their February White House spat — is leading the digital front pages this morning. In a marked change of tone, Trump took to Truth Social to state that his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin may not “want to stop the war” and may need to “dealt with differently.” (Wall Street Journal | Financial Times | Bloomberg | Reuters | New York Times | Guardian)

And in our corner of the world, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas appointed longtime confidant Hussein Al Sheikh as his deputy — and likely successor — in a move seen as an attempt to quell mounting US, Arab, and international pressure for a clear succession plan. (New York Times | Reuters | Guardian)

While in Iran, a massive explosion tore through a port in Bandar Abbas killing at least 14 people and injuring more than 700 others, according to Iranian state media. Authorities said the blast — which unleashed a giant mushroom cloud and shattered windows kilometers away — was likely triggered by the ignition of improperly stored chemicals inside shipping containers. (Reuters | Financial Times | Guardian)

World Bank slashes Saudi economic growth forecasts amid global recession fears

The World Bank cut its GDP growth forecasts for Saudi Arabia to 2.8% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026 in its April MENA Economic Update (pdf). The bank had previously forecast 3.4% growth for 2025 and 5.4% for 2026.

The rationale: The projected growth is attributed to anticipated increases in oil production and ongoing diversification efforts to expand non-oil sectors. However, this outlook is subject to downside risks, including potential volatility in global oil markets, a slowdown in demand, and heightened uncertainty.

REFRESHER- OPEC+ is moving ahead with its planned supply hikes, citing a positive market outlook, but has left room to pause or reverse course if needed. This raises questions about the Kingdom sticking to output hikes, as falling oil prices could pressure the government’s fiscal position and lead to scaling back projects.

A mixed profile: While the Kingdom is less integrated into global value chains than some of its MENA neighbors, it has high “pure forward linkages” — including exports of refined petroleum and chemical products — the bank said. The report also highlighted a decline in labor productivity growth, as well as relatively low levels of investment in physical and human capital and R&D by the private sector.

MEANWHILE- A Reuters poll of 19 economists projected a more optimistic 3.9% growth for the year — a downward revision from 4.0% in January.

BUT- Concerns remain: "As global recession fears rise, a lower oil price would also weigh on Saudi exports and fiscal revenues … Given the weakening outlook for both the volumes and the prices of Saudi Arabia's key exports, we see downside risk to our growth forecast," Alina Slyusarchuk, chief CEEMEA economist at Morgan Stanley, told the newswire.

REMEMBER- The International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecast for the Kingdom’s GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points to 3% in 2025 and by 0.4 percentage points to 3.7% in 2026. S&P Global ealier expected our GDP to grow by 2.8% in 2025, while Fitch Ratings, more optimistic than most, penciled in 3.4% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026.

THE REGIONAL PICTURE-

The broader MENA region is forecast to expand 2.6% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, marking sharper downgrades from earlier forecasts of 3.4% and 4.1%. The downward revisions reflect tighter global financial conditions, as well as a projected fall in remittances and worsening external balances amid capital outflows due to dampened consumer confidence and investor sentiment leading to capital outflows.

GCC economies will fare better: The GCC, as a whole, is now projected to grow 3.2% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, with both years’ figures revised down by just 0.1 percentage points from the World Bank’s January estimates. The resilience of Gulf economies comes on the back of strong non-oil sectors such as tourism, construction, and financial services.

Non-oil exports inch up 0.7% y-o-y in February

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports rose 0.7% y-o-y to SAR 16.1 bn in February 2025, its lowest level in almost a year, according to initial data from the General Authority for Statistics (Gastat) (pdf). Total non-oil exports — including re-exports — were up 14.3% y-o-y, buoyed by a 45.9% increase in re-exports value, despite a 2.6% decrease in merchandise exports over the same period. Meanwhile, imports decreased 5.6% y-o-y to SAR 63.2 bn, and the surplus of the merchandise trade balance rose 4.0%.

EXPORTS BREAKDOWN-

Non-oil exports remained higher than imports, with the ratio rising to 41.3% in February, compared to 34.1% in the same month a year ago.

Chemical products, which accounted for 20.3% of non-oil exports, dropped 3.6% y-o-y. Plastics, rubbers, and their derivatives, making up 20% of non-oil exports, logged a 1.7% y-o-y decrease.

Machinery, electrical equipment, and parts were the most sought after by importers, making up 23.5% of total imports while dropping 0.7% y-o-y to SAR 14.9 bn. Transportation equipment and parts followed, accounting for 15.4% of total imports, recorded a 24.3% y-o-y increase to SAR 9.7 bn.

China remains #1 on the trade list: The Kingdom’s merchandise exports to China made up 16.2% of our total exports in January 2025, followed by South Korea (10.1%) and the UAE (9.8%). Meanwhile, Chinese goods accounted for just under a quarter of total imports over the same period, followed by the US (7.3%) and India (6.7%).

ON THE OIL FRONT- Oil’s share of total exports dropped by 4.2 percentage points y-o-y to 72.1% in February 2025, as total oil exports fell 7.9% y-o-y during the same period.

Vision 2030 enters final phase. Here’s how we’re doing so far

Phase two of Vision 2030 officially wrapped up, as the Kingdom moves into the third and final phase of its transformation journey, according to the 2024 Vision 2030 Annual Report (pdf). The report highlights Vision 2030’s accelerated progress, as 93% of its strategic KPIs have been achieved, exceeded, or are close to meeting interim targets, with 85% of the 1.5k initiatives either completed or on track.

SO CLOSE-

GDP is shy of the mark: Our 2024 GDP came in at USD 936.8 bn, up from USD 812.7 bn in 2016, on the back of a strong 4.3% increase in non-oil activities and 1.3% overall growth rate. However, the mark fell a little short of its 2024 target of USD 955.8 bn. The Kingdom targets USD 1.7 tn by 2030.

The non-oil sector is still a work in progress: Non-oil GDP revenue slightly missed its target of USD 694.8 bn for 2024, reaching USD 680.9 bn. Non-oil merchandise exports rose to USD 82 bn since the Vision’s launch, though their share of non-oil GDP remains at 25.2%, below the 35% target for 2024.

THE OVERACHIEVERS-

PIF stands strong: Since Vision 2030’s launch in 2016, the Public Investment Fund’s (PIF) assets increased 390% to USD 940 bn from USD 190 bn, exceeding its 2024 target of USD 880 bn. As a result, the 2030 asset goal was raised to USD 2.67 tn from USD 1.87 tn.

The PIF is also expected to beat that target and reach USD 3.2 tn (SAR 12 tn) due to strong annual returns, coming in between 7-8% and outperforming the global average of 5-6%, American Economic Association’s Ali Al Hazmi told Asharq Business.

ALSO- RHQ, unemployment, and tourism are ahead of the curve: Riyadh now hosts 571 regional headquarters, surpassing the 2030 target of 500. National unemployment dropped to 7% in 2024, achieving the 2030 goal. Women’s labor participation now stands at 33.5%, on track for the 2030 target of 40%, which is already an update to the 30% target achieved a decade earlier. The Kingdom also received 100 mn tourists seven years ahead of schedule, leading authorities to raise the 2030 target to 150 mn.

ON TRACK-

The private sector pulls its weight: The private sector’s contribution to GDP reached 47%, surpassing the 2024 target of 46% as it guns for 65% by 2030. SMEs alone now contribute 21.9% to GDP, beating their 20.2% goal for 2023 and progressing toward the 2030 target at 35%.

Foreign direct investment powers forward: FDI inflows exceeded its 2023 target by 16% at USD 25.6 bn, contributing 2.4% to GDP, despite a 1.31% dip since 2021 on the back of lower global liquidity and tighter monetary conditions. Foreign ownership in the financial market surpassed USD 100 bn for the first time to reach USD 112.8 bn in 2024.

Mining and military make resourceful progress: The mining sector’s value almost doubled to USD 2.51 tn since the Vision’s launch. The geological survey progress reached 51%, up from merely 1.7% in 2021, with the Kingdom securing first place in international mining investment growth and second in issuing mining licenses. Meanwhile, localization of military industries increased to 19.4% in 2023, up from 7.7% in 2016, and is progressing toward the 50% target by 2030.

Living better and longer: Saudi homeownership rose to 65.4%, meeting its 64% target for 2024, on track to the 70% target by 2030. Life expectancy rose to 78.8 years, surpassing its 2024 benchmark of 78.2 years and advancing toward the 2030 goal of 80 years. Healthcare service quality index reached 59%, outperforming the 2023 benchmark of 49%. On the happiness front, the Kingdom scored 6.6 on the World Happiness Index, higher than global and Gulf averages but slightly below the 6.78 target for 2024, with a goal of 7.54 by 2030.

MORE TARGETS ACHIEVED IN 2024 TARGETS -

Number of Saudi Sites on Unesco World Heritage List — eight actual vs. seven target
Population Clusters Covered by Healthcare Services — 97.4% actual vs. 96.5% target
Healthcare Services Quality Index — 97.4% actual vs. 96.5% target
Life Expectancy — 78.8 years actual vs. 78.2 target
Youth (5–17) Engaging in Daily Physical Activity — 18.7% actual vs. 10% target
Adults (18+) Engaging in Physical Activity — 58.5% actual vs. 53% target
Number of Foreign Umrah Pilgrims — 16.9 mn actual vs. 11.3 mn target
Financial Aid Beneficiaries Empowered — 33.7% actual vs. 32.5% target
Percentage of University Graduates Employed Within 6 Months — 43% actual vs. 41.2% target
Number of Employees in SMEs — 7.86 mn actual vs. 7.1 mn target

2024 TARGETS STILL IN PROGRESS-

World Happiness Index score — 6.6 actual vs. 6.78 target
Loans to SMEs as a Percentage of Total Bank Loans — 9.4% actual vs. 10% target
Local Content Share in the Oil & Gas Sector — 65.5% actual vs. 66% target
Local Content Share in Non-Oil Sector Spending — 55.8% actual vs. 59% target
Women’s Labor Force Participation Rate — 33.5% actual vs. 35.9% target

AviLease obtains USD 1.5 bn revolving financing facility from 20 global banks

AviLease secures USD 1.5 bn revolving loan from 20 global banks: PIF-owned aircraft leasing company AviLease secured a USD 1.5 bn unsecured revolving credit facility from a global syndicate of banks, it said in a post on LinkedIn. The three-year facility adds to AviLease’s existing USD 750 mn revolving credit facility, bringing its total available committed credit facilities to USD 2.25 bn, provided by 25 local and international banks from across the globe, the post added.

Where will the money go? The fresh funding will provide liquidity to AviLease’s expansion plans, including investing in more modern and energy-efficient aircraft, CEO Ted O'Byrne said. The plan is part of a larger business strategy that saw the company obtain a USD 1.1 bn, five-year unsecured loan to expand its fleet back in June 2023.

Some 450 and 500 additional aircraft over the next five years are required to cover the Saudi aviation market demand — valued at an estimated USD 35-45 bn, Deputy CEO Tariq Al Ghaziri told Asharq Business earlier. This represents a potential growth avenue for the aircraft leasing company, as approximately USD 20 bn is anticipated to go towards the leasing sector, he added.

Who provided the funding? Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, BNP Paribas, Bank of China, Crédit Agricole CIB, China Construction Bank (Asia), Citi, DBS Bank, Emirates NBD, First Abu Dhabi Bank, HSBC, ING, Intesa Sanpaolo, JP Morgan, Mizuho, Morgan Stanley, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking, OCBC, and Standard Chartered provided the latest revolving facility.

BACKGROUND- AviLease is looking to expand its fleet to 300 jets by 2030. The growth push should see the lessor’s cargo traffic double and increase its balance sheet to USD 20 bn from USD 8 bn by 2030 through M&A, buying individual planes, and placing large orders for aircraft, O’Byrne said back in August 2023. The firm also hopes to issue up to USD 2 bn in USD-denominated bonds annually as part of its strategy to help the Kingdom diversify away from oil and become a trade and logistics hub.

IN OTHER DEBT NEWS-

Saudi Binladin Group secures SAR 2 bn loan with Sab: Saudi Binladin Group, Binladin International Holding Group’s construction arm, lined up a SAR 2 bn loan with Saudi Awwal Bank (Sab) to fund King Fahd Sports City development in Riyadh and strengthen the group’s financial position, Asharq Al Awsat reported, citing a press release from the bank. No further details were disclosed.

BACKGROUND- The Finance Ministry has been mulling several measures to support the high-profile contractor and stabilize its financial position, including providing loans, helping reschedule payments owed to creditors, and boosting the government stake in the group. The news comes as the Kingdom gears up for a big construction push to build stadiums, infrastructure, and other projects for the 2034 FIFA World Cup and Riyadh Expo 2030.

SAIB, Yansab, First Mills post 1Q results

SAIB-

Saudi Investment Bank (Saib) saw its net income rise 13.8% y-o-y to SAR 503.3 mn in 1Q 2025, on the back of a 5.5% rise in total operating income and a 3.1% decrease in total operating expenses, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The bank’s total income from financing increased 10.2% y-o-y to SAR 1.7 bn during the period, while its total income from investment rose 11.9% y-o-y to SAR 550.2 mn.

YANSAB-

Yanbu National Petrochemical Co. (YANSAB) reported a net income of SAR 13.7 mn in 1Q 2025, dipping 86.2% y-o-y, due to increasing input costs and decreasing average sales prices, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul.

Despite lower prices, revenue rose 8.7% to SAR 1.5 bn over the same period on the back of higher sales volumes.

FIRST MILLS-

First Mills’ bottom line rose 2.5% in 1Q 2025 to SAR 79.7 mn as a result of growing flour and feed sales and a decrease in financial costs, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. Revenue also rose 2.6% y-o-y to SAR 283.6 mn on the back of rising sales of flour and feed, which were slightly offset by a decline in bran sales, and a small decline in operating income.

Spotlight on Saudi Arabia’s expanding footprint in South Africa

Saudi-South African investment ties are in Bloomberg’s spotlight, after it suprred USD 5 bn worth of agreements across renewable energy, logistics, gas stations, and real estate, with more on the way. Official and business missions have been shuttling between both countries since 2022, deepening bilateral investments and pushing the pair to consider launching a Johannesburg-Riyadh direct flight, the business information service reports.

Why go South? South Africa’s status as Africa’s most industrialized nation, coupled with a strong infrastructure and undervalued companies, is attracting strategic long-term investors. The country offers “high-quality management teams and intellectual property” at attractive valuations, said Investec M&A head Ruven Naidoo.

A budding relationship: Since the meeting between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and President Cyril Ramaphosa in 2022, ties between Saudi Arabia and South Africa have strengthened through the exponential growth of Saudi investment in the African economy, explained South Africa’s International Relations and Cooperation Ministry Spokesperson Chrispin Phiri.

More than trade and investment: Deeper economic and diplomatic ties have led to the institutionalization of relations through the Joint Economic Committee, whose upcoming session will be hosted in Riyadh next month. Moreover, Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 plan committed USD 41 bn to African investments by 2030.

Targeting new sectors: Efforts are also underway to boost cooperation in the pharma, automotive, financial services, commodities, and agriculture sectors, said Saudi-South Africa Business Forum Co-Chairman Stavros Nicolaou, reflecting the ongoing growth of bilateral trade. South African exports to Saudi Arabia rose to ZAR 7.3 bn in 2024 from ZAR 6.6 bn in 2023.

Growing trade, remaining hurdles. However, the lack of bilateral investment treaties and the presence of bureaucratic procedures complicate investments in South Africa, said Saudi Commercial Attaché in Johannesburg Hussam Algheraimil. On the other end, the drop in oil prices is putting pressure on Saudi investments abroad.

Aramco + NDMC Energy extend long-term engineering service partnership

ENERGY-

UAE-based NMDC Energy extended its long-term partnership with Aramco to provide engineering services to the Saudi oil giant, according to a press release. Under the agreement, NMDC Energy will provide services including detailed engineering, material procurement, fabrication, transportation, installation, and pre-commissioning of offshore facilities for projects in Saudi Arabia’s territorial waters.

BACKGROUND- Aramco inked a long-term partnership with NMDC Energy, opening the door to the engineering company to be involved in several projects. Within that framework, the NMDC Offshore fabrication yard in Ras Al Khair agreed to offer maritime engineering, equipment, material manufacturing, and fabrication services in January.

INS.-

Saudi Reins.Company(Saudi Re) announced that Moody's upgraded its Ins. Financial Strength Rating (IFSR) to A2 from A3, with a stable outlook, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The upgrade reflects more robust business and financial foundations after the PIF acquired a significant minority stake in the company.

Stable outlook: Saudi Re is also expected to benefit from new local ins. regulations and broader economic growth and diversification in the Kingdom. Moody’s noted that Saudi Re’s profitability should stay healthy over the next year or so, aided by good underwriting performance and strong investment returns.

REMEMBER- Saudi Re received CMA’s approval for a SAR 427.7 mn capital hike last November, which was snapped up by the PIF in exchange for a 23.1% stake.

AVIATION-

Swissport gains Saudi license: Swissport was awarded an economic license by the General Authority of Civil Aviation to offer ground handling services at seven airports across the Kingdom, the authority said in a post on X.

ICYMI- Back in November 2023, Asyad Holding Group acquired a 49% stake in Swissport International's Saudi division, which first entered the Saudi market in 2016, offering cargo handling and airport ground services.

REAL ESTATE

Egypt-based Al Ahly Sabbour subsidiary Grande-Sabbour signed a cooperation agreement with Sarat Investments to develop real estate projects across the Kingdom, according to a statement (pdf). Under the agreement, Grande-Sabbour will act as the company’s real estate arm in Saudi Arabia and develop projects in Jeddah, Riyadh, and Medina.

What they said: “This agreement deepens our footprint in the Saudi market, a promising market with numerous growth opportunities that will contribute to stimulating economic growth in the Kingdom and the region as a whole,” said Al Ahly Sabbour Chairman Ahmed Sabbour.

STARTUP WATCH-

Riyadh-based Jaree is officially live, connecting early-stage funding-seeking Saudi-based startups with venture capital from accredited investors, syndicates, and family offices, according to a press release. Founded by AlNaji and Noura AlNahedh (LinkedIn), Jaree was launched last January to with a goal help startups secure funding while easing investor access to promising ventures.

M&A WATCH-

ThimarDevelopment Holding signed a SAR 9 mn agreement to buy 26% of the Yamama Plus Serviced Apartments Company, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The acquisition will be settled through an in-kind consideration valued at SAR 7.6 mn, while the remaining SAR 1.4 mn will be paid in banknotes following its planned capital increase. Thimar has an exit option after three years at a minimum of SAR 15 mn — representing a minimum annual yield of 22%.

MENA fixed income outperforms as global risks loom

1Q 2025 saw MENA fixed income markets off to a strong start, according to Mashreq Capital’s latest quarterly outlook (pdf), even as risk sentiment takes a hit globally. The Bloomberg MENA USD Aggregate Bond Index climbed 2.6% in 1Q 2025, reversing a 2.6% drop in the previous quarter and outperforming broader emerging market (EM) debt.

The main draw: Gains were driven by a 40 bps drop in US 10-year treasury yields and steady appetite for the long-duration, high-grade regional bonds. With an average duration of 6.1 years and an A credit rating, MENA bonds continue to offer value, with yields close to 6%, about 100 bps above their five-year average, even as spreads remain tight by historical standards.

Gulf heavyweights did most of the lifting: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar drove fixed income gains in 1Q, together contributing 211 bps to overall performance. Sovereigns and government-related entities delivered most of the returns across MENA, accounting for 220 bps in total.

New debt looks to be pouring into the region: Issuance across MENA is picking up speed, with 40% of the total USD 120 bn expected this year already completed by the end of 1Q. Saudi Arabia and the UAE — both at a federal level and from Abu Dhabi — are expected to contribute the lion’s share of supply, whilst Kuwait is set to return to international markets after passing its long-delayed debt law.

Equities underperformed, but the flows didn’t stop: MENA stocks lagged EM peers by 57 bps last quarter, weighed down by soft oil prices. Still, foreign capital continued to flow in: Kuwait surged nearly 10%, Dubai rose 1.7% on the back of strong performance from real estate and bank stocks, and Saudi’s Tadawul gained 0.6%. Abu Dhabi was only up marginally as Adnoc stocks came under pressure.

Mashreq Capital has a more cautious stance for 2Q: The firm remains neutral on MENA fixed income but has trimmed risk, cutting high-beta names and adding modest duration through investment-grade bonds. The shift comes amid rising global volatility, with US trade tariffs and weakened Brent oil prices flagged as key downside risks.

The big picture: The UAE, Qatar, and Oman are expected to outperform thanks to low fiscal breakeven oil prices and solid external positions, according to the report. Oman and Morocco are on upgrade watch, while Bahrain and Sharjah remain underweight amid debt concerns and weaker fundamentals.

It is also backing sectors tied to domestic demand, including infrastructure, real estate, and tech, in markets like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and increasingly Oman. The firm says structural reforms and policy follow-through are anchoring long-term investor interest in these economies.

TASI	11,764	+0.7% (YTD: -2.3%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,501	+0.8% (YTD: -0.6%)
NomuC	28,599	+0.5% (YTD:-9.1%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	5.0% repo	4.5% reverse repo
EGX30	31,640	+2.6% (YTD: +6.4%)
ADX	9,392	-0.4% (YTD: -0.3%)
DFM	5,163	-0.6% (YTD: +0.1%)
S&P 500	5,525	+0.7% (YTD: -6.1%)
FTSE 100	8,415	+0.1% (YTD: +3.0%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,154	+0.8% (YTD: +5.3%)
Brent crude	USD 66.87	+0.5%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.94	+0.2%
Gold	USD 3,298.40	-1.5%
BTC	USD 94,195.60	-0.5% (YTD: +0.8%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.7% on Thursday on turnover of SAR 6.9 bn. The index is down 2.3% YTD.

In the green: SPM (+10.0%), Derayah (+8.2%) and Albaha (+6.3%).

In the red: Mulkia Reit (-4.7%), Musharaka Reit (-3.5%) and Saudi Cable (-3.2%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.5% on Thursday on turnover of SAR 28.9 mn. The index is down 9.1% YTD.

In the green: HKC (+9.3%), Almohafaza For Education (+7.8%) and Shalfa (+7.4%).

In the red: Osool And Bakheet (-8.1%), Tharwah (-7.9%) and Meyar (-7.3%).

Foreign Minister meets French counterpart to prepare for two-state conference

Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan met with his French counterpart Jean-Noel Barrot in Riyadh to discuss the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, the Saudi ministry said in a post on X. The pair discussed bilateral relations and other issues of common interest, with a focus on preparations for the upcoming High-level International Conference for the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-State Solution, to be co-chaired by Saudi Arabia and France and held in New York from 17 to 20 June.

REMEMBER- Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and French President Emmanuel Macron announced in December they will co-chair the conference focused on establishing a Palestinian state.

CALENDAR

APRIL

25 April-3 May (Friday-Saturday): AFC Champions League Elite Finals, Jeddah.

27-28 April (Sunday-Monday): First Saudi Statistics Forum, Movenpick Hotel and Residences, Riyadh

28 April- 30 April (Monday-Wednesday): Automechanika Riyadh, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh.

29 April (Tuesday): Rules for special purpose entities (SPEs) feedback deadline.

MAY

May: World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Global Awards 2025 announces finalists.

3 May (Saturday): Canelo Alvarez vs William Scull, Anb Arena, Riyadh.

4-8 May (Sunday-Thursday): Adeer Real Estate Nomu IPO offering period.

5 May (Monday): Opec+ meeting.

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

9 May (Friday): PFL Mena Season 2 Kick-off.

11-13 May (Sunday-Tuesday): Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah, Riyadh.

12-14 May (Monday-Wednesday): 2025 Saudi Giga projects Summit, Riyadh.

12-15 May (Monday-Thursday): Saudi Smart Manufacturing, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

23 May (Friday): Guns N’ Roses Show, Riyadh.

29 May (Thursday): 2024-2025 academic year ends.

JUNE

4-9 June (Wednesday-Monday): Hajj.

6-10 June (Friday-Tuesday): Eid Al Adha.

17-18 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

24-25 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): Tech-ecO-System Summit (ToSS), Riyadh.

30 June (Monday): Cancellation of Fines and Exemption of Financial Penalties Initiative by the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (Zatca) deadline.

JULY

July (Second week): World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Global Awards 2025 awards ceremony, Geneva.

7 July-24 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

29-30 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

31 July (Thursday): Deadline for companies with SAR 2.5 mn or more in 2022/2023 revenues to integrate e-invoicing solutions with Fatoora.

AUGUST

7 July-24 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

5-17 August (Tuesday-Sunday): 2025 Fiba Asia Cup, Jeddah.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Monday-Wednesday): Money 20/20 Middle East, Riyadh.

17-18 September (Wednesday-Thursday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

23 September (Tuesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

1-3 October (Wednesday-Friday): Saudi Green Building Forum, Riyadh.

7-8 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global EV & Mobility Technology (GEMTECH) Forum, Riyadh.

17 October (Friday): Saudization for private healthcare roles enters its second phase.

22-23 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Private Capital Forum, Riyadh.

25-27 December (Saturday-Monday): The Fortune Global Forum 2025, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

3-9 November (Monday- Sunday): WTA Tour Finals, Riyadh.

23-26 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday) The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh.

27-30 November (Thursday-Sunday): World Rally Championship Saudi Arabia 2025, Jeddah.

30 November (Sunday): Zatca 21st E-invocing integration wave deadline.

DECEMBER

1-4 December (Wednesday-Saturday): International Conference on Nuclear and Radiological Emergencies, Riyadh.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

31 December (Wednesday): Zatca 22st E-invocing integration wave deadline.

2026

UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

2027

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.

Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

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