We’re prepping for oil potentially reaching USD 180

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Trump threatens to attack Iran’s power plants

Good morning, wonderful people. We’re back in your inbox after what we hope was a relaxing Eid break you spent with your loved ones — and away from computer screens and the incessant barrage of news.

It was a rollercoaster over the past few days. US President Donald Trump’s suggestions of the war being almost over were swiftly followed by renewed attacks from both sides. Israel attacked the South Pars gas field — Iran’s primary energy resource — on Thursday, and Iran retaliated with strikes that took out 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity.

THEN- To top it off, Trump threatened on Saturday night to target Iranian power plants if it doesn’t fully open the Strait of Hormuz in 48 hours, which was met with an Iranian threat that “all energy infrastructure, as well as information technology […] and water desalination facilities, belonging to the US and the regime in the region will be targeted.”

BUT- Yesterday morning, Trump extended his ultimatum until Friday, citing progress in negotiations with Tehran, which he says agreed not to develop nuclear weapons. However, claims of secret negotiations with unnamed senior Iranian figures hit a wall when Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf — rumored to be the mystery negotiator — denied any direct or indirect talks (let alone agreeing on terms) with Washington.

Attacks on the GCC did not stop amid the uncertainty. The Kingdom faced repeated aerial barrages, including multiple ballistic missiles targeting Riyadh over the weekend, though defense systems have intercepted the majority of these strikes.

The response: A meeting of ministers on Thursday saw our Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan warn Tehran of the GCC’s defense capabilities, and urged Iranians to cease their attacks immediately. A couple of days later, the Foreign Ministry expelled Iran’s military attaché and three mission staff members on Sunday, declaring them “persona non grata” and ordering their departure within 24 hours.

Watch this space

Cancellations + reschedules are hitting more events: Our flagship tech conference Leap is rescheduled to 31 August, amid concerns the conflict will impact global participation.

Some execs are so busy putting out fires — figuratively and literally — they can’t make it to scheduled events. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser reportedly pulled out of S&P’s CeraWeek energy conference to be held in the US this week, unnamed industry sources told Reuters. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation CEO Nawaf Al Sabah is also reportedly staying home.

BUT- FII Priority is going ahead as planned: The annual summit is kicking off in Miami tomorrow and will continue through Friday, with US President Donald Trump set to headline a three-day gathering of Gulf capital and Wall Street heavyweights, Saudi Gazette reported.

Talk about a timely theme: The summit will explore how capital flows in a “fragmented global environment.” Speakers will include PIF Governor Yasir Al Rumayyan, Finance Minister Mohammed Al Jadaan, Tourism Minister Ahmed Al Khateeb, and Saudi Ambassador to the United States Reema bint Bandar. From the US side, Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff, Meta Vice Chair Dina Powell McCormick, and Donald Trump Jr. are scheduled to make appearances.

IPO — Ninja seems unfazed by market volatility: Homegrown quick-delivery unicorn Ninja is reportedly gauging investor appetite for a potential IPO on Tadawul’s main market, Bloomberg reports, citing sources it said are familiar with the matter. Ninja’s executives reportedly met with investors in London earlier this month, and are in the final stages of selecting investment banks, the sources added.

Are we looking at a much bigger valuation? The startup logged revenues of USD 1 bn last year and it is looking forward to generating USD 1.6 bn in 2026, the sources said. It was last valued at USD 1.5 bn following a funding round led by Riyad Capital in July.

What’s next? Sources say the four-year-old delivery startup will make a decision in the upcoming weeks, as its debut is projected in late 2026 or early 2027. Ninja has the option to raise capital privately if market volatility persists.

IN CONTEXT- Tadawul fared better than most neighboring markets since the conflict started, due to robust oil prices supporting energy heavyweights. The main market’s latest newcomer, mining company Saleh Abdulaziz Al Rashed & Sons, climbed 8% since its March debut.

LNG — The five-year fallout of the Ras Laffan attacks: Repairs to Qatar’s LNG facilities after this month’s missile strikes could take up to five years, Mees reports. Two liquefaction trains — roughly 12.8 mtpa, or 17% of capacity — have been knocked offline, forcing QatarEnergy to declare force majeure on long-term contracts with buyers in Europe and Asia. Each additional month of disruption removes around 1.5% from annual global LNG availability, intensifying competition for a shrinking pool of flexible supply.

LOGISTICS — TGA announces war-related license requirement exemption: The Transport General Authority (TGA) has suspended the requirement for valid maritime licenses and work permits for 30 days for vessels in the Arabian Gulf, according to a statement. The exemption is subject to renewal if necessary and aims to ensure maritime activity continues uninterrupted while enabling vessels to continue their work safely.

Supporting logistics in the east: The Saudi Ports Authority launched an initiative this week to supply ships in the Arabian Gulf with fuel, water, and food, as the waterway falls under pressure of a near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

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The big story abroad

The US-Israel war on Iran has not slowed down yet, but US President Donald Trump did announce a five-day pause in strikes and indicate a resumption of talks with Tehran. Trump notably walked back his threat to target the Islamic Republic’s power grid after being urged by US allies and Gulf states, unnamed sources told Bloomberg.

But Tehran has denied that it agreed to talk to Washington. “No negotiations have been held with the US, and fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped,” Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said.

WATCH THIS SPACE- There are two things we’ll be watching closely in the days to come: Whether Washington and Tehran will sit at the negotiating table, and whether Trump will stick to his decision not to target Iran’s energy infrastructure. Iranian media claims he already failed to follow through, reporting what so far appear to us to be limited attacks on the country’s gas facilities earlier today.

Oil prices eased on the news: Crude prices fell 11% yesterday following Trump’s decision to delay airstrikes on Iran’s energy facilities and his contested reference to resumed negotiations. Brent crude tumbled USD 12.25 — a 10.9% drop — to close at USD 99.94 per barrel.

Wall Street welcomed the decision to delay strikes, with its three major indexes closing in the green, up over 1%.

Also making headlines is the collision between an Air Canada Express jet and a fire truck at New York’s LaGuardia airport. Both pilots were killed and dozens were injured. Aviation safety experts said that air traffic staffing levels — an encroaching issue in US aviation — will be a part of the ensuing investigation.

MEANWHILE- In the world of AI: Asset management firm BlackRock’s CEO Larry Fink has raised the alarm over the AI boom, which he says could make wealth disparities more severe. AI stands to continue the trend of keeping gains among individuals who already own financial assets but “at an even larger scale,” Fink said.

Could oil go up to USD 180?

Riyadh is reportedly modeling a worst-case oil price scenario, as strikes on infrastructure and the closure of Hormuz threaten to push crude toward USD 180 a barrel by late April should disruptions persist, unnamed Saudi officials told the Wall Street Journal.

“This is really uncharted territory for the oil market, as there has never been such a large, prolonged, and unpredictable supply outage,” Gulf analyst at GlobalPartners Justin Alexander tells EnterpriseAM. USD 180 / bbl is “not implausible” as it would still be lower in real USD terms than when oil prices hit over USD 145 / bbl during the 2008 financial crisis, but that surge was demand-side driven, Alexander said.

It’s all about how long the Hormuz closure is going to last. “I don’t think USD 150 is out of the question in another month […] You start talking about June, I’ll give you USD 180,” CIBC Private Wealth Senior Energy Trader Rebecca Babin said.

Higher prices can be good for us — but only for a little while. The short-term impact of high prices on our budget would be favorable, Alexander added, as the Kingdom should be able to export well over half the pre-war levels. “If the oil price averages over USD 140 / bbl, then it's a net benefit.”

It’s a different story after that. The WSJ reports officials are concerned about a similar scenario: the volatility could tip the global economy into recession or trigger a lasting demand hit as oil consumers cut back. For the medium term, Alexander anticipates higher prices for a longer period, driven by the risk premium and reduced global reserves. Still, “a global recession could also hit demand, so it’s a complex picture.”

IN CONTEXT- Saudi Arabia has cut output by some 2 mn bbl / d since the closure of Hormuz last month, with Saudi Aramco’s CEO Amin Nasser raising alarm bells over “the biggest crisis the region’s oil and gas industry has faced.” The ongoing conflict has already withheld mns of barrels from the global supply, with prices doubling since the war began last month.

It could be much worse if the Trump administration follows through with its threats and bombs the Iranian power grid, to which Tehran wants to retaliate by targeting energy infrastructure throughout West Asia. “I sincerely hope there isn’t destruction of energy infrastructure, but can’t rule anything out in this war,” Alexander said.

Riyadh’s alternative route was already targeted right before Eid. The Kingdom’s facilities at Yanbu — the Red Sea outlet designed to bypass the Hormuz chokepoint — were targeted by an Iranian drone on Thursday. The port recorded some 4.2 mn bbl / d exiting its waters by last Wednesday as tankers lined up to offtake the redirected crude. However, another drone hit Samref refinery, raising concerns regarding the long-term security of the Gulf’s escape valve.

Why this matters

Pricing tightrope: Aramco is trying to price crude accurately while preventing global consumers from putting their pencils down and slashing oil use for good. Operators across the Kingdom and the wider Gulf are concerned about long-term market instability.

Europe, Japan, and Korea could take the biggest hit, with Aramco weighing how the surging cost of its crude imports will drive up the cost of energy, inflation, and interest rates, ultimately slowing economies and demand.

The bigger picture: Surging oil means the end of cheap energy and factory inputs, Wolfgang Lehmacher, former head of supply chain and transport industries at the World Economic Forum, tells EnterpriseAM. “A probable USD 8-12 / gallon gas price kills spending and spurs electric cars. Gulf aluminum plants will close without shipping from Hormuz. World trade growth will slow as costs soar,” he added.

Early signs of strain: Aramco has already cut its crude supply to Asian buyers for April for a second month running, Reuters reports, citing two insider sources. For now, the producer is only offloading Arab Light exports from Yanbu to term customers next month.

What’s next?

A 10-day countdown: All eyes are on 2 April, when Aramco is due to release its official selling prices. Until then, modelers are racing to identify the breaking point — the price at which gasoline demand starts to collapse and industrial activity becomes uneconomic.

Supply crunch ahead? Saudi light crude is being offloaded to Asian purchasers via Yanbu port for around USD 125 a barrel. We’re expecting to see physical shortage weigh heavier next week, as extra oil in storage –– a portion of which was shipped out of the Gulf prior to the war –– is used up.

Savvy to snap up ByteDance’s Moonton for USD 6 bn?

Savvy snags Moonton? PIF’s Savvy Games Group is buying mobile studio Moonton from China’s ByteDance for USD 6 bn, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are in the know.

More titles in the bag: The agreement — which sees the TikTok parent exiting traditional gaming at a 50% premium on its 2021 purchase price — would bring Mobile Legends: Bang Bang and its 1.5 bn installs under the PIF’s umbrella.

What’s next? The current management will remain in place as the agreement closes “in the near future,” according to Moonton CEO Zhang Yunfan in an internal memo the business information service says it has seen.

Why it matters

The acquisition aims to develop Savvy’s mobile games division and enhance its esports reach, Savvy CEO Brian Ward said in a statement. Savvy will expand its international footprint by entering Southeast Asia, where Moonton is most popular.

Gotta catch ‘em all: Moonton will join a Savvy portfolio that already includes Scopely, the Monopoly Go maker acquired for USD 4.9 bn in 2023, Niantic’s gaming division — maker of Pokémon Go — which Scopely acquired for USD 3.5 bn last year, and ESL Faceit, the esports tournament giant bought for USD 1.5 bn three years ago.

And in other gaming M&A news: Saudi’s Electronic Gaming Development Company has acquired a 5.03% stake in Japanese video game developer Capcom, Waya reports. PIF had acquired a 5% stake in the firm in 2022.

New SAR 4.5 bn real estate fund targets the holy cities

Dyar, Al Rajhi wager on the holy sites: Arabian Dyar and Al Rajhi Capital are launching an SAR 4.5 bn real estate fund to develop “high-quality” residential and hospitality projects in Makkah and Madinah, Arabian Dyar said in a statement.

Who’s doing what? The Haramain Projects Fund will see Al Rajhi Capital finance projects, while Arabian Dyar will be responsible for the development and selling processes, Arabian Dyar CEO Naif Alatawi told Bloomberg.

The pitch: The fund is designed to significantly increase the real estate supply in the area surrounding the Two Holy Mosques, targeting the creation of thousands of new units. “The current property supply in Mecca is very limited as most projects are just starting. Prices could hit SAR 50k per sqm when the market opens,” Alatawi added.

The supply is meant to meet the expected new demand from non-Saudi Muslims, who can now own property in Makkah and Madinah under the Real Estate Foreign Ownership Law, which went into effect last January.

Just a start: Alatawi says the fund could eventually deploy up to SAR 20 bn to meet the projected surge in foreign demand. The company is already working on SAR 10 bn worth of projects in Makkah’s Masar district, including 13 towers and 4k apartments, Alatawi said.

Dyar is not worried about the regional turbulence: “The demand is strong for the holy cities even in the current circumstances. These cities are seen as stable investment destinations that have stood there for centuries,” Alatawi argued.

More 2025 earnings roll in

Almunajem Foods

Almunajem Foods’ net income declined 42.6% y-o-y to SAR 159.9 mn in 2025, pulled down by lower share gains from Balady Poultry Company, it said in a Tadawul disclosure. Meanwhile, revenue inched down 0.2% y-o-y to SAR 3.3 bn during the year due to decreased selling prices of the red and white meat segments.

On a quarterly basis, the company’s bottom line decreased 5.1% y-o-y to SAR 57.2 mn during 4Q 2025, while its top line inched up 1% y-o-y to SAR 826.3 mn over the same period.

Umm Al Qura for Development

Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction’s net income soared 97.2% y-o-y to SAR 983.4 mn in 2025, it said in a Tadawul disclosure (pdf). Revenue rose 59.2% y-o-y to SAR 2.9 bn, thanks to revenue from the sale of a large number of land plots, as the year 2025 is being described as the company’s “best year yet,” according to CEO Yasser Abuateek.

L’azurde

Jewelry maker L’azurde’s net loss narrowed to SAR 33.7 mn in 2025, compared to SAR 63.2 mn in the previous year, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. However, revenue rose 37.8% y-o-y to SAR 2.9 bn over the same year, fueled by increased global gold prices and improved performance.

Dividends: The company’s board will not distribute dividends for 2025 due to losses incurred in the financial year, according to a separate bourse filing.

Bond market loses USD bns as war drags on

The damage to the international bond market from the regional war is starting to show, with USD 2.5 tn wiped off global bond values this month alone, Bloomberg reports. Government, corporate, and securitized debt have fallen from USD 77 tn at the end of last month to USD 74.4 tn currently. The usual safe haven has been experiencing a rout for some time now as the conflict continues to escalate.

Government debt is leading declines, with a Bloomberg index of sovereign securities falling 3.3% during the month, surpassing the decline in corporate bonds by 3.1%, the data show.

The culprit? An uptick in inflation is expected to erode the value of returns on bonds, making them suddenly not so attractive to investors. The US Federal Reserve’s recent decision to hold interest rates steady, and subsequent forecasts of a hike later in the year, is likely to add fuel to the inflation-concern fire and see the bond sell-off continue for the time being.

IN CONTEXT- Predictions for inflation growth have skyrocketed on the back of the ongoing war between the US/Israel and Iran. Look no further than the jumps seen in oil prices as more and more energy infrastructure is taken out and the movement, or lack thereof, of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remains sticky.

Similar situations around the world are hammering home the fact that the implications of this war are anything but regional, with the US, Japan, the UK, India, Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea all seeing an uptick in government bond yields as anticipation of higher inflation hits the market. In New Zealand, yields are at their highest in nearly a year, while over in Australia, certain bonds are seeing the highest yields since 2011.

The impact is most stark in markets that are the most reliant on energy imports, with the UK seeing a sell-off of government bonds wiping off GBP 108 bn in market value, the business information service reported elsewhere. That marks the worst month for bonds since the rout that preceded the ouster of Prime Minister Liz Truss in 2022.

The phenomenon seems to be yet another manifestation of stagflation. We recently reported on this unfortunate cocktail of stagnating economic growth and inflation rewriting the hedging rulebook — and it seems markets are already pricing in that sentiment, analysts say.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian-Pacific markets are up in early trading this morning, rebounding from losses seen a day earlier after statements from US President Donald Trump ignited hope that we’re nearing the end of the regional war. Over on Wall Street, futures are in the red after a trading day that saw all major indices jump over 1%.

TASI	10,946	+0.6% (YTD: +4.3%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,480	+0.3% (YTD: +6.7%)
NomuC	22,735	+1.3% (YTD: -2.4%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	47,612	+3.4% (YTD: +13.8%)
ADX	9,423	-1.6% (YTD: -5.7%)
DFM	5,383	-3.0% (YTD: -11.0%)
S&P 500	6,581	+1.2% (YTD: -3.9%)
FTSE 100	9,894	-0.2% (YTD: -0.4%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,574	+1.3% (YTD: -3.8%)
Brent crude	USD 99.94	-10.9%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.91	+0.5%
Gold	USD 4,453	+0.3%
BTC	USD 70,588	+4.0% (YTD: -19.4%)
Sukuk/bond market index	916.67	+0.1% (YTD: -0.3%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	149.15	-0.6% (YTD: -1.8%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	26.15	-2.4% (YTD: +74.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.6% on 16 March on turnover of SAR 6.3 bn. The index is up 4.3% YTD.

In the green: Almajdiah (+8.6%), Emaar EC (+8.3%), and Gasco (+6.6%).

In the red: Al Etihad (-9.9%), Build Station (-4.5%), and Yansab (-3.8%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 1.3% on 16 March on turnover of SAR 23.9 mn. The index is down 2.4% YTD.

In the green: AME (+8.3%), Group Five (+8.1%), and Taqat (+8.0%).

In the red: Paper Home (-5.0%), Knowledgenet (-3.7%), and Riyadh Steel (-3.7%).

CALENDAR

MARCH

25-27 March (Wednesday-Friday): Future Investment Initiative Institute, Faena Hotel, Miami Beach.

31 March (Tuesday): Zatca’s 23rd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

APRIL

6 April (Monday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

6-7 April (Monday-Tuesday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh

22-23 April (Wednesday-Thursday): The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah.

27-29 April (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

28 April (Tuesday): GC Summit Saudi Arabia, Riyadh.

MAY

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

5-6 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh.

19-21 May (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid Al Adha holiday.

JUNE

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

JULY

6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

AUGUST

31 August-3 Sep (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

12-15 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

NOVEMBER

24-28 November (Tuesday-Saturday): Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun, Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
November: The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh;
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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Trump threatens to attack Iran’s power plants