Good morning. The conflict heated up over the weekend as the US and Israel ramped up attacks on Iranian infrastructure, including the Middle East’s highest bridge and steel and petrochemical facilities. Iran hit back by downing US aircraft and targeting GCC gas, steel, and aluminum assets as well as Israeli energy assets.
Another 48-hour deadline? Trump came out once again while markets were closed and reiterated his deadline for Iran to open up Hormuz before the US bombs their power grid and takes Tehran back “into the stone age.” We have more on that in the news well, below.
Hubs are shifting to remote work — temporarily: Building managers at The King Abdullah Financial District, Business Gate, and Al Faisaliah Tower are directing tenants to work from home until tomorrow morning, the Wall Street Journal reported. Al Faisaliah houses Apple and JPMorgan Chase’s offices in Saudi, while Business Gate is home to Microsoft and Dell, all on Tehran’s list of retaliation against US tech corporations.
Flight disruptions also continue: Flynas has extended its suspension of flights to Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Doha, Bahrain, and other destinations until 15 April, while Flyadeal is also suspending flights to Amman, Damascus, and Dubai until 14 April.
ALSO- Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni landed in Jeddah on Friday in an unannounced tour that includes Qatar and the UAE to send a message of solidarity and protect Italy’s energy supplies. The visit aims to assert the intention of big Italian companies to continue investing in the GCC, unnamed sources told Reuters.
WEATHER- Drizzle, drizzle: Light to moderate thunderstorms persist in the Northern Borders, Eastern, Riyadh, Qassim, Hail, and Madinah regions.
- Riyadh: 32°C high / 22°C low;
- Jeddah: 32°C high / 26°C low;
- Makkah: 36°C high / 27°C low;
- Dammam: 28°C high / 21°C low.
PSAs
The mandatory status adjustment deadline for land freight firms has been extended to 27 August, the Transport General Authority said on X on Thursday. The extension gives heavy freight businesses additional time to reclassify vehicle registrations from private to general transport and grants light freight operators a window to secure mandatory professional driver cards.
Watch this space
IPO — PIF to protect its SpaceX turf with IPO anchor bid: The Public Investment Fund (PIF) is considering a USD 5 bn anchor investment in SpaceX’s IPO, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. This move would partly protect PIF’s stake of just under 1% in the company from dilution. Elon Musk’s SpaceX submitted its draft IPO registration confidentially to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, targeting a June listing, Bloomberg reports.
SpaceX aims to raise a record USD 75 bn in its debut, surpassing Aramco’s USD 29 bn IPO back in 2019 and potentially aiming for a valuation of over USD 1.75 tn, according to Bloomberg. Wealthy investors served by the underwriting banks are expected to form a large portion of the allocation.The firm is also mulling a dual-class structure, with the listing predicted to have a large retail component, possibly allocating as much as 30% of the offering to small investors.
The multi-bn USD investment reinforces PIF’s commitment to its international portfolio despite the ongoing regional war, a message Governor Yasir Al Rumayyan reiterated at the FII event in Miami. The fund’s global dealmaking continues, with PIF’s Savvy Games also nearing the close of a USD 6 bn purchase of mobile game maker Moonton from TikTok maker ByteDance.
REMEMBER- The fund’s new five-year strategy — expected in the upcoming weeks — will concentrate capital into a smaller pool of portfolio companies and scale them into global champions across sectors such as logistics, mining, religious tourism, and AI.
The Musk connection deepens: The PIF’s AI arm Humain became a significant minority shareholder in SpaceX’s xAI in February after investing USD 3 bn into the firm’s Series E round. This follows a November partnership with xAI to develop a data center network and deploy Grok models in the Kingdom.
ADVISORS- SpaceX tapped Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley for senior roles in the IPO. It is also enlisting international banks to manage regional orders, with Citigroup coordinating their efforts. Barclays will handle the UK, while Deutsche Bank and UBS are overseeing European demand, and the Royal Bank of Canada will manage Canadian orders. Meanwhile, Mizuho Financial Group will lead regional allocations in Asia, and Macquarie Group will focus on Australia.
LOGISTICS — The US has doubled its reins. assurances for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz to USD 40 bn to lower “war risk” barriers for shippers, Bloomberg reports. The US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) expanded the program with insurers including AIG, Berkshire Hathaway, Travelers, Liberty Mutual Ins., Starr, CNA, and Chubb.
Upping the ante: The move builds on a USD 20 bn DFC program launched last month to revive shipping through the strait, but operators remain deterred by drone, missile, and naval mine risks despite Trump’s security assurances. The program’s lack of naval escort protections also isn’t boosting confidence.
Why it matters: The US has had to sweeten the pot because the strait’s disruption has driven up global energy prices, pushing US gasoline prices above USD 4 per gallon. Analysts say ins. costs and shipping activity are unlikely to normalize unless Iran’s military threat is reduced.
But there are other routes, courtesy of Saudi: The Kingdom’s East-West pipeline officially hit 100% capacity late last month at 7 mn bbl / d. This bypass is credited with preventing oil prices from hitting catastrophic highs. Meanwhile, on land, Saudi Arabian Railways launched a new 1.7k km rail freight route last month, connecting the Eastern Province to the Jordanian border and the Red Sea to bypass the strait entirely for non-oil goods.
Market watch
Opec+ is weighing an output increase it may not be able to deliver: Opec+’s eight members will meet on Sunday to discuss a possible increase in oil output — a step that would signal readiness to ramp up supply if flows through Hormuz resume, Reuters reports, citing two sources who said that formal consultations haven’t begun yet, while a third source said a pause remains on the table.
BACKGROUND- At its March meeting, Opec+ agreed to a modest 206k bbl / d increase for April after holding output flat in 1Q on oversupply concerns, just as the war began disrupting flows from key Middle East producers. Disruption escalated into the largest oil supply shock on record, with Saudi, Iraqi, Kuwaiti, and UAE output severely curtailed.
The main question is, how does any increase — if approved — actually reach the market? With no clear signs of a reopening of Hormuz, any increase would likely have little immediate impact on supply, serving merely as a signal that barrels are ready once tankers can move again. Other members such as Russia, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman sit outside the chokepoint, but their ability to raise output is limited.
“We need to react, at least on paper,” one Opec+ source told the newswire. The oil cartel is leaning on quotas as forward guidance rather than physical supply, using production targets to manage expectations. It’s a signaling game — an effort to cool down markets — until flows normalize.
Where things stand for us: Saudi’s oil exports declined by 50% m-o-m in March to an average of 3.33 mn bbl / d, as Iran continues to block tankers, Bloomberg reported, citing tanker tracking data. The monthly value does not include cargoes that remained stranded in the Gulf after being loaded onto vessels, amounting to some 55 mn barrels.
REMEMBER- The Kingdom currently depends on the East-West pipeline, which has a 7 mn bbl / d capacity, to supply its refineries and ports on the Red Sea. The full capacity includes 5 mn bbl / d for export through Yanbu, with the rest sent to refineries or used in power and desalination plants. We also supply customers in Europe and North America from storage tanks on Egypt’s Mediterranean coast and have several supertankers near Japan’s Okinawa island.
Data point
89 mn — that’s the number of visitors the Kingdom’s entertainment sector welcomed in 2025, the Saudi Gazette reported on Thursday. The sector issued 6.5k licenses last year and added 472 new entertainment destinations, bringing the total to 975 — up from 513 in 2024.
Sports
The Don returns: Cristiano Ronaldo scored twice on his return from a month-long injury as Al Nassr defeated bottom side Al Najma 5-2 in the Saudi Pro League on Friday. The 41-year-old had missed the club’s previous two league matches, as well as Portugal’s friendlies against Mexico and the US.
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The big story abroad
Tehran has 48 hours to open the Strait of Hormuz or face intense attacks, according to US President Donald Trump’s latest threat to the Islamic Republic. Tensions are especially high as Washington continues to search for a missing airman from one of two downed warplanes. Trump’s emphasis on the waterway contradicts previous signaling that his administration had largely abandoned the task of reviving traffic in the strait.
Closer to home, the conflict continues to damage key infrastructure. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation’s headquarters caught fire after an Iranian strike. The building — which also houses the nation’s Oil Ministry — was evacuated, and no injuries were reported.
Five EU countries have called for a windfall tax on the income of energy companies, following the spike in fuel prices stemming from the US-Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Finance ministers from Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Austria have argued that such a levy would help fund relief for consumers currently facing high fuel costs.
Meanwhile, in the world of finance: The jury is still out on whether the recent strain on theprivate credit sector — with investors demanding their money back from some funds — will simply blow over or usher in a full-blown financial crisis. Concerns surrounding the sector are rooted in how much private lending backs software companies, which are currently facing existential threats due to innovations in artificial intelligence.


