Tadawul sees sharpest one-day rally since 2020 on news of relaxing foreign ownership cap

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Gathern readies for 2028 IPO + Riyadh Integrated plans for next phase

Good morning. Tadawul’s main market has reversed course yesterday, logging its sharpest one-day gains since 2020 buoyed by news of an imminent relaxing of foreign ownership caps. Pundits are saying the potential move could unlock north of USD 10 bn of passive inflows into TASI, which might be enough to end its dry spell since 2025 started. Details on this, and more, are in today’s issue.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- The General Authority for Statistics is set to roll out July’s international trade data today, according to the state statistics agency’s calendar. Non-oil exports rose 8.4% y-o-y in June to SAR 17.9 bn, while oil exports dropped 2.5% y-o-y to SAR 64.7 bn during the month, stretching its downward trend.

#2- The 2025 Saudi Toyota Championship kicks off today at Al Janadriyah Parking Area and runs through 19 December. The event will feature top drivers from across the Kingdom and the region, alongside competitions designed to showcase young Saudi talent. Fans can watch multiple rounds of drifting and autocross, with drivers judged on precision, vehicle control, speed, and overall style, as well as tackle cone-lined courses testing skill and accuracy.

WEATHER- The thunder is still rolling, bringing with it showers across several regions of the Kingdom today, with the potential for strong winds, hail, dust, and reduced visibility. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected in Makkah, Al Baha, and Asir, while Jazan and Madinah could see thunderstorms with hail. Lighter rainfall is anticipated in Riyadh, Qassim, and Hail, as dust- and sand-raising winds continue to affect the Eastern and Najran regions.

Riyadh: 40°C high / 28°C low,
Jeddah: 36°C high / 32°C low
Makkah: 40°C high / 31°C low.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Homegrown alternative hospitality platform Gathern has its eyes set on a 2028 IPO, after raising USD 72 mn (c. SAR 270 mn) in Series B funding last month, CEO Latifah Altamimi told Bloomberg yesterday. Gathern said it will use the funds to expand locally and regionally, attract more international visitors, support long-term stays, invest in tech infrastructure, enhance user experience with AI, and grow its network of local hosts in preparation for the IPO.

About Gathern: Founded by Latifah Altamimi (LinkedIn) and Eman Alsuwailem (LinkedIn), the platform operates 72k units and has more than 5 mn registered users from 150 nationalities. It has paid out over SAR 2 bn to 33k Saudi hosts, controlling 40% of the national market share in alternative hospitality, with a 53% market share in Riyadh.

SILZ plans for next phase: The Riyadh Special Integrated Special Logistics Zone (SILZ) has leased 55% of its first phase’s land area and is moving to plan phase two, SILZ Chief Operating Officer Mohammed Alasseri told Zawya. The first phase spans 1 mn sqm of leasable land, whereas the second phase spans 1.6 mn sqm of land.

Who’s moving in? The first phase’s clients are fast fashion giant Shein; global tech player Lenovo; industrial robot-maker Sapphire, a JV comprising Japan’s Softbank and PIF-owned Alat; and logistics player Unipart, among others.

Global payments platform PayPal Holdings plans to invest USD 100 mn across the Middle East and Africa, according to a press release (pdf). The strategic investment will be spread across minority stakes, acquisitions, PayPal Ventures funding, human resources, technology deployments to help local firms scale, and attracting new customers.

REMEMBER- PayPal opened its first regional hub in Dubai in April, designed to expand the company’s global commerce capabilities and support businesses with cross-border payments and access to wider markets.

DATA POINTS-

The Real Estate Development Fund deposited a little over SAR 1 bn into the accounts of housing support program beneficiaries for September, it said in a statement yesterday. The funds were allocated to cover financing support on housing contracts under the initiatives from the Fund and the Municipal and Rural Affairs and Housing Ministry.

The Capital Market Authority (CMA) has issued a total of 68 experimental permits through its Fintech Lab by the end of 2Q 2025, with 36 companies already operational, 14 preparing to launch, and five having graduated, according to a press releas e. The Lab currently hosts 50 registered fintech firms, focusing on securities crowdfunding, robo-advisory, and digital trading platforms. It has enabled platforms for fund distribution, debt issuance, crowdfunding, and automated advisory services.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

International pages are leading with news of a deadly shooting at a US immigration office — a gunman opened fire at an ICE facility in Dallas, killing one and critically injuring two others before taking his own life. FBI investigators are pointing to anti-ICE messages at the scene as evidence of a politically motivated attack. President Donald Trump pledged in a post on Truth Social an executive order to “dismantle these domestic terrorism networks.” (Financial Times | Reuters | New York Times | The Guardian | Associated Press | Bloomberg)

LOOKING TO APPLE FOR A LIFELINE- Intel has held early talks with Apple about a potential investment as part of its comeback strategy, a week after Nvidia announced an agreement that will see it invest USD 5 bn in the chipmaker, Bloomberg reports. Such a deal would be symbolically powerful: Apple abandoned Intel’s processors in its Macs five years ago but has touted big plans for US manufacturing.

ALSO WORTH NOTING THIS MORNING- Taiwan reels after deadly typhoon: At least 17 people were killed when a barrier lake burst in a Taiwan town, prompting residents to seek shelters and an inquiry into what went wrong with evacuation orders. (Reuters | BBC | New York Times | The Guardian)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Riyadh will host the Digital Acceleration and Transformation Expo (DATE) on 8-9 December, at the JW Marriott hotel. The event, organized by Trescon, is expected to attract over 2k government officials, investors, and industry leaders advancements in AI, blockchain, FinTech, HealthTech, and the metaverse. It will be co-located with the Climate Action and Renewable Energy (CARE) series and will also feature initiatives to promote women in technology.

TASI sees sharpest one-day rally since 2020 on news of relaxing foreign ownership cap

Tadawul’s benchmark index TASI gained 5.1% to close at 11.4k points, after the Capital Market Authority (CMA) signaled it may relax the cap on foreign ownership in Saudi equities before year end. The sharpest one-day rally since 2020 — according to Bloomberg’s calculations — pushed market cap up to SAR 9.4 tn, with Alrajhi, Alinma, and SNB banks all logging 10% gains.

REFRESHER- The Capital Market Authority (CMA) is moving to raise the 49% ceiling on foreign ownership in Tadawul-listed companies, Abdulaziz Abdulmohsen Bin Hassan, CMA board member, told Bloomberg earlier this week. The changes “could come into effect before the end of the year,” he said without specifying the new ceiling.

The market is already pricing in the prospect of fresh demand, with JPMorgan estimating that a full removal of the cap could unlock USD 10.6 bn of passive inflows, while our friends at EFG Hermes expect around USD 10 bn, Bloomberg reported.

A sign of progress: “It’s a very exciting and progressive moment, something the market has been waiting for a long time,” Fahd Al Tarzi, CEO of CI Capital KSA, told EnterpriseAM Saudi, adding that the reform could channel foreign demand into sectors such as real estate, mining, and data center operators tied to the Kingdom’s AI agenda.

Corporates are also expected to tap the equity market, with looser ownership rules and the potential for dual-class share structures paving the way for fresh M&A activity and giving family businesses room to sell down stakes while keeping control, Al Tarzi said.

Where things stand today: Firms with the highest foreign ownership included Tawuniya, tech player Rasan, and telecom operator Etihad Etisalat — each with foreign stakes topping 20% but still shy of 25%, according to market data as of today’s close. Saudi National Bank (SNB) counted foreign investors holding more than 17% of its freefloat, while Al Rajhi Bank was under 15% and Alinma Bank slightly above 10%.

Who stands to gain: Al Rajhi would capture the lion’s share of incremental flows, potentially drawing USD 6 bn in fresh inflows, according to EFG Hermes and JPMorgan’s estimates. Saudi SNB and Alinma also set to draw strong investor interest, Bloomberg quoted JPMorgan analyst Pankaj Gupta as saying.

The MSCI factor at play: Raising the cap beyond 50% would overturn years of restrictions and give Saudi equities more heft in MSCI’s emerging-markets benchmarks, drawing in more passive and active flows. Saudi’s weight in the EM benchmarks could rise to roughly 4% from the current 3.3%, according to JPMorgan estimates.

The surge in Riyadh also fed through to broader emerging markets. The MSCI EM stocks benchmark rose 0.4% to its highest since July 2021, with Saudi banks among the top contributors, Bloomberg reported separately.

IN CONTEXT- Riyadh is looking to breathe life into a market that has lagged its peers this year. Just last month, the CMA introduced rules with a 10% ownership cap per non-resident foreign investor (excluding strategic investors) and a 49% aggregate cap for all foreign investors in any single listed company. Foreign strategic investors are also barred from selling shares for two years after acquisition. The move built on an earlier reform in January, when foreigners were first permitted to buy shares and convertible debt in Tadawul-listed real estate firms with assets in Makkah and Madinah.

Roshn League secures coverage in over 180 territories via multi-year media pacts

The Roshn Saudi League (RSL) secured new international broadcast agreements for the 2025/2026 season that will see its matches and highlights broadcast in more than 180 territories through 37 broadcasters, including ESPN, Fox Sports, Dazn, and YouTube, it said in a press release (pdf) yesterday. The value of the pacts was not disclosed. The full list of the new rights holders for this SPL season is available on their website.

Long-term commitments include six seasons with Fox Sports across the Americas and four-year agreements with Globo, Band TV, and Canal Goat in Brazil, Movistar+ in Spain, Sport TV in Portugal, SPOTV in Asia, and Fancode in India. Free-to-air coverage will be available in several markets, including Australia via Network 10, and France and Brazil via YouTube.

Digital and creator-led streaming: The league also signed a rights agreement with French Twitch creator Zack Nani to stream matches in France, part of a strategy to engage younger audiences through creator-led distribution. Highlights will also be available on YouTube, Dazn, Sky, and OneFootball, with select matches shown free on the RSL’s official YouTube channel in the UK, Nordics, Canada, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Serbia.

By the numbers: The league reported that over 230 mn viewers tuned in during the 2024/25 season, placing it among the most-watched football competitions globally. Broadcast revenue has grown for the third consecutive cycle, rising more than 20% over the past two seasons. The new agreements aim to expand the RSL’s footprint across multiple continents, with reported growth of more than 25% in Africa, 35% in Asia, and 32% in the Americas.

Saudi-Chinese agreements worth USD 1.7 bn signed amid Alkhorayef’s visit to Beijing

Saudi and Chinese private-sector firms signed 42 agreements worth USD 1.7 bn, spanning medical equipment, smart equipment, mineral resources, environmentally friendly materials, and advanced manufacturing, Asharq Business reported. The agreements were signed during an official visit by Industry and Mineral Resources Minister Bandar Alkhorayef to Beijing yesterday.

The Kingdom is looking to deepen mining and industrial cooperation with China, to cover not only exploration and raw materials but also related services like technology, finance, and supply chains, Alkhorayef told Asharq Business, noting that five licensed Chinese mining companies are currently operating in the Kingdom.

REMEMBER- China is our biggest trading partner, making up 18% of the Kingdom’s total foreign trade with a bilateral trade volume exceeding USD 107 bn. The latest data for 2Q showed China maintaining its lead as the destination for 14.2% of our exports and supplying 27.4% of our imports for the quarter.

Banks’ net income grew 18% y-o-y in 2Q 2025 -Kamco

Saudi banks posted an 18% growth in their net profits y-o-y in 2Q 2025, surpassing consensus forecasts by 3%, according to a Kamco Invest report (pdf). Retail banks, including Al Rajhi, SNB, and Al Bilad, saw their bottomlines coming in about 4% higher than forecasts, while corporate banks exceeded expectations by about 3%.

Aggregate lending growth remained robust at 16% y-o-y during the quarter, exceeding deposit growth and lifting up the system-wide loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) to 106%. The growth was mainly backed by Riyad Bank, SAB, Alinma, and Al Rajhi, according to the report.

Net interest margins (NIMs) extended their contraction during 2Q, hammered by tighter liquidity and rising competition in the corporate segment. Meanwhile, non-interest income jumped 26% y-o-y, boosted by higher fees, commissions, trading income, and foreign exchange gains.

Sector breakdown: Corporate real estate loans saw a modest growth of 0.3% q-o-q to hit SAR 221 bn in 2Q 2025, while retail loans grew by 2% q-o-q during the quarter, recording SAR 712 bn. However, the retail mortgage market remained “under pressure,” with new residential originations dipping 32% q-o-q in 2Q to SAR 19 bn, according to the report.

LOOKING AHEAD- Kamco Invest predicts a pickup in mortgage demand by 4Q 2025, driven by September’s rate cut, government housing initiatives, and seasonal bank promotions. “The recent amendment to the White Land Tax Law, which imposes a 5-10% tax on vacant plots to encourage development, is also expected to increase housing supply and support mortgage growth,” according to the report.

The segment will also be supported by the new real estate foreign ownership law, that will allow expatriates to buy homes in the Kingdom in designated zones starting January. The report also highlighted a shift in management focus towards cost optimization, looking to safeguard and gradually enhance NIMs.

Asset quality remained strong despite softer oil prices, with the majority of lenders reporting robust rebounds. Net non-performing loans (NPLs) stands unchanged from the first quarter, at 1.9%.

Time & savings deposits have also seen significant growth of 15.7% YTD, while demand deposits have reported only 3.7% growth, fueling competition for current and savings accounts and leading some banks, including SNB, to provide cost-bearing products, Kamco said.

Saudi’s push to narrow regional economic gap

The Kingdom’s efforts to reduce regional inequality through major state-backed projects in Aseer province got ink from the Financial Times, highlighting the government’s SAR 25 bn investment pledge in Aseer, of which SAR 20 bn will come from the Public Investment Fund (PIF) to support major developments including the flagship Soudah Peaks project — dubbed “Beverly Hills of Saudi Arabia.”

The salmon-colored paper is following the change already seen in Abha, including women in the driving seat, young Saudis taking jobs as baristas and taxi drivers, and dress-codes gradually relaxing. Private-sector projects are also emerging, including a retail and hotel complex, being developed by a Saudi company, and a USD 150 mn luxury hotel in Soudah mountains by US-based Amek Group.

Although unemployment in Aseer has fallen from 17% three years ago to 10.7% today, the paper notes it is still the highest among the Kingdom’s provinces, with average household income remaining far lower than that in Riyadh. This income gap between Riyadh and other provinces has pushed over 250k Saudis to move to the capital in the last five years, pushing rents up by 30%-40%. “Disparities in transition are normal. What’s important is to understand what’s driving them,” Economy Minister Faisal Alibrahim noted.

SNB Partners with Geidea and Tarabut to launch PoS lending for SMEs

FINANCIAL SERVICES-

#1- Saudi National Bank (SNB) is launching a point-of-sale (PoS) lending service for SMEs by partnering with Dubai-based Tarabut and homegrown Geidea, it said in a press release. The solution will allow merchants to access SNB-provided capital directly on their Geidea payment terminals, a process powered by Tarabut's open banking and lending technology, in order to simplify access to working capital. The program is pending final approval from the Saudi Central Bank (Sama).

BACKGROUND- Geidea and Tarabut inked an MoU back in November 2024 to tailor financing solutions for Saudi SMEs, with the aim to address a SAR 300 bn domestic funding gap by combining Geidea extensive PoS network with Tarabut’s advanced tech stack to deliver faster and more accessible lending options across the Kingdom.

#2- D360 + TerraPay open Saudi remittance rail: PIF-backed D360 Bank partnered with UK-based payment solutions company TerraPay to enable instant or next-day transfers into the Kingdom through bank accounts and mobile wallets, according to a press release published on Monday. The service covers uses from family remittances and business payments to tourism and pilgrimage spending, streamlining what was once a fragmented process with standardized compliance and security checks.

ICYMI- D360 Bank and MoneyGram inked an MoU during the Money 20/20 event to integrate MoneyGram’s global network with D360 Bank’s platform to provide its customers with cross-border payment and international remittance services.

AVIATION-

Thai AirAsiaX will begin direct flights between Riyadh and Bangkok on 2 December, marking the AirAsia Group’s first service to Riyadh, the airline said in a statement last week. The route will run four times weekly — on Tuesdays, Thursdays, Saturdays, and Sundays — using a 285-seat Airbus A330 with 30 premium flatbeds and 255 economy seats. The seven-and-a-half hr flight will connect Riyadh travelers to AirAsia’s wider network across Asean, Asia, and Australia via Bangkok. Saudi nationals can enter Thailand through e-visa and visa-on-arrival options.

Family offices stay the course amid volatility, lean into private equity -Citi Wealth

Family offices keep calm and hold steady as tariffs bite: Global family offices sat tight through a year of tariff tremors, inflation worries, and geopolitical noise, choosing resilience over reallocation, according to Citi Wealth’s 2025 Global Family Office report (pdf). The report surveyed 346 family offices — 23% of which are from EMEA — with an average net worth of USD 2.1 bn.

Private equity takes the crown: Allocations to private equity rose sharply, with 36% of respondents saying they boosted exposure and only 10% cutting back — a net increase of 26%. Growth equity drew the biggest share (28%) of fund allocations, followed by buyouts (21%) and venture capital (19%).

Direct transactions stayed hot: 70% of family offices said they’re active, with four in 10 stepping up activity last year. The sweet spot? Growth (52%) and early-stage companies (37%) remain the most popular targets, while secondaries (30%) outpaced pre-IPO transactions (22%), as families looked for liquidity amid a stalled IPO market.

Public equities still account for the largest share of portfolios, with a 27% average allocation, followed by private equity (20%, split between funds and direct), fixed income (15%), real estate (14%), and banknotes and equivalents (13%). Alternatives such as hedge funds (5%), private credit (3%), and commodities (1%) round out the mix. Meanwhile, digital assets are still marginal at just 1%.

EMEA families dialed up allocations to both banknotes and bonds — popular at times of volatility — signaling a more cautious stance, with fixed income allocations rising to 19% and banknote holdings up by four percentage points. Meanwhile, PE allocations stood at just 22%, the lowest of any region.

Other regional trends worth noting:

Asia Pacific offices sat on the highest liquidity buffers, with banknotes at 18% of portfolios amid tariff uncertainty;
Latin America leaned into private equity (24% allocation) and trimmed both banknotes and bonds;
North America remained equity-heavy, with public markets at 29% and real estate allocations (funds + direct) reaching 18%.

Returns? Still bullish. Nearly half of respondents expect returns of 5-10% this year, while another 30% are anticipating 10-15% returns. Larger offices are more optimistic: 10% of those with more than USD 500 mn in AUM anticipate gains above 15%. Negative return expectations were almost nonexistent across all regions. Meanwhile, only 70% of EMEA respondents expected portfolio returns above 5%, compared with nearly 90% in other regions.

Risks shift: Trade disputes and tariffs topped the worry list (60%), pushing last year’s bogeyman — interest rates — into fourth place. US-China relations (43%) and resurgent inflation (37%) rounded out the top concerns. By contrast, wars in the Middle East (14%) and Ukraine (9%) were seen as lesser risks than in 2024, suggesting investors feel markets have already priced them in.

Professionalization gap: Investment functions are getting sharper, with more family offices adopting investment committees and policy statements. But gaps remain elsewhere: 58% flagged shortcomings in risk management and cybersecurity, and nearly three-quarters still lack formal succession planning. Family unity and next-gen prep were also identified as major service gaps — despite being top-of-mind for principals.

Tech and AI edge in: Artificial intelligence is no longer hypothetical: 22% of offices said they’re already using AI for investment analysis or forecasting, and another 22% said they use it for automating operational tasks. But adoption is far from universal, with barriers ranging from lack of expertise to cybersecurity fears.

REMEMBER- Family offices surveyed by Goldman Sachs survey are rotating heavily into public equities (31%) while trimming private equity (21%), with strong exposure to AI and rising crypto holdings, particularly in APAC. Risk views also diverge, with Goldman Sachs respondents most concerned about geopolitical conflict. Overall, respondents in the Goldman Sachs survey showed a “pro-risk” tilt, while Citi’s survey respondents shifted towards boosting resilience and governance gaps.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mostly in the green this morning, save for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, which fell marginally in early trade. Meanwhile, China’s CSI 300 was flat. Over on Wall Street, futures are little changed as investors await unemployment data set to be published today.

TASI	11,426	+5.1% (YTD: -5.1%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,495	+5.7% (YTD: -1.0%)
NomuC	25,608	+1.2% (YTD: -18.6%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.75% repo	4.25% reverse repo
EGX30	35,949	+1.8% (YTD: +20.9%)
ADX	9,978	-1.3% (YTD: +5.9%)
DFM	5,872	-1.5% (YTD: +13.8%)
S&P 500	6,638	-0.3% (YTD: +12.9%)
FTSE 100	9,250	+0.3% (YTD: +13.2%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,465	-0.1 (YTD: +11.6%)
Brent crude	USD 69.10	-0.3%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.88	+0.6%
Gold	USD 3,773	+0.1%
BTC	USD 113,089	+0.6% (YTD: +20.9%)
Sukuk/bond market index	916.61	+0.1% (YTD: +1.6%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	150.63	0.0% (YTD: +7.6%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	16.18	-2.8% (YTD: -6.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 5.1% yesterday on turnover of SAR 14.5 bn. The index is down 5.1% YTD.

In the green: Alinma (+10.0%), Dar Alarkan (+10.0%) and Albilad (+10.0%).

In the red: MBC Group (-2.2%), Malath Insurance (-1.4%) and Amlak (-1.2%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 1.2% yesterday on turnover of SAR 40.5 mn. The index is down 18.6% YTD.

In the green: Almuneef (+14.9%), Balady (12.0%) and Bena (+9.4%).

In the red: Balsm Medical (-5.3%), Meyar (-5.0%) and Shalfa (-4.6%).

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