Supply chain woes hit renewables target

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

JPMorgan offloads debt to power the PIF’s takeover of EA

Good morning, ladies and gents. Business is in full-on wait-and-see mode this week, as all signs point to further escalation that could prolong the war by at least a few more weeks — increasing the human toll and compounding the far-reaching implications of the looming energy crisis.

Our 2030 renewables target may be further derailed by the war, with actual installed capacity expected to be just shy of 75 GW, compared to a target of 130 GW. Saudi and GCC banks might also have to slash their 2026 dividends if they want to stay in the game. We have more on this in today’s news below.

We’re part of a quadrilateral summit to ease the tensions: Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan met with counterparts from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey in Islamabad, with discussions aiming to establish a “permanent end” to the month-long war.

Islamabad is the frontrunner to host the talks: Pakistan announced today that it will soon host direct or indirect talks between the US and Iran, a diplomatic channel that is considered a last-ditch effort before a potential US ground invasion.

WEATHER- More rain incoming: Thunderstorms will blow across most of the Kingdom today through Thursday. While most areas will see light to moderate rain, parts of Riyadh and the Eastern Province should brace for a heavier downpour. Next week is shaping up to be more of the same.

Riyadh: 33°C high / 19°C low;
Jeddah: 32°C high / 22°C low;
Makkah: 34°C high / 22°C low;
Dammam: 29°C high / 17°C low.

Watch this space

DEBT — JPMorgan offloaded some USD 15 bn in debt to finance the record USD 55 bn takeover of Electronic Arts (EA) by the PIF-led consortium including Silver Lake and Affinity Partners, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are in the know. Investor demand climbed past USD 50 bn, allowing the debt sale — code-named Project Eagle — to close with significant momentum, despite fears that the Iran war would freeze the leveraged buyout market.

This is a W for the PIF-Affinity-Silver Lake triad, signaling that Saudi-backed mega M&As can still clear Wall Street even during peak geopolitical volatility. The loans popped on their first day of trading, suggesting the pricing (98.5 cents on the USD) was sweet for investors.

What the pundits are saying: “The immediate term is so influenced by the conflict in the Middle East and how that unfolds [...] But if you step back, you see that demand for these [transactions] has generally been good,” Senior Portfolio Manager at Impax Asset Management David Kinsley said.

Wait, didn’t bondholders block this? Yes, but the PIF is buying the peace. Last month, a bloc holding 75-90% of EA’s 2031 and 2051 notes signed a cooperation agreement to oppose the offering, pushing back on a defeasance structure that would have swapped the bonds for lower-yielding US Treasuries and avoided a multi-bn-USD payout at 101% of par. That strategy lost traction after S&P Global declined to assign the Treasury-backed bonds a top-tier rating.

OIL — Saudi oil heading to Pakistan through Hormuz? An oil tanker carrying some 650k barrels of Saudi crude crossed the strait yesterday, Bloomberg reported, citing tracking data. The ship reportedly passed through a narrow route between islands close to the Iranian border, alongside two LPG tankers and four bulk carriers from the GCC.

That’s still a small fraction of the prewar levels of Saudi crude passing through the strait, which remains effectively closed. Saudi used to ship almost 5.5 mn bbl / d, accounting for some 38% of all crude shipments through Hormuz. Most of our exports are now rerouted through the East-West pipeline and shipped through the Yanbu Port.

It’s business as usual for Iranian tankers: Iran-linked crude continues to cross the strait, carrying an average of 1.6 mn bbl / d in the first three weeks of March, Bloomberg cited data from TankerTrackers.com.

ENVIRONMENT — UN commends Saudi on land restoration: The United Nations has praised Saudi Arabia for restoring 1 mn hectares of degraded land, state news agency SPA reports. UN Convention to Combat Desertification Executive Secretary Yasmine Fouad singled out the Kingdom’s adoption of international environmental initiatives, like the Middle East Green Initiative and the Global Land Initiative.

The roundup of news and trends that move your markets and shape corporate agendas delivered straight to your inbox.

Subscribe here

***You’re reading EnterpriseAM Saudi, your essential daily roundup of business, economics, and must-read news about Saudi, delivered straight to your inbox. We’re out Sunday through Thursday by 7am Riyadh time.

EnterpriseAM Saudi is available without charge thanks to the generous support of our friends at Tas’heel and Hassan Allam Properties.

Want to send us a story idea, request coverage, ask for a correction, or otherwise get in touch? Reach out to us on saudi@enterpriseAM.com.

DID YOU KNOW that we also cover Egypt, the UAE, the MENA logistics industry, and the MENA <> India corridor?***

The big story abroad

Tehran has signaled that it is ready to confront a land invasion by Washington, as 3.5k US troops arrive in the region. The Pentagon is reportedly prepping for weeks of ground operations in the Islamic Republic, which would likely be limited to targeted raids by special forces and infantry, rather than a full-scale invasion, US officials told The Washington Post.

US President Donald Trump wants to “take the oil in Iran,” and indicated a willingness to seize Iran’s key export hub of Kharg Island, he told the Financial Times. Trump said that his “preference would be to take the oil,” in a similar move to what his administration did in Venezuela.

Pakistan is positioning itself as a broker for talks, signaling its readiness to facilitate peace talks between Washington and Tehran. “Pakistan is very happy that both Iran and the US have expressed their confidence in Pakistan to facilitate their talks,” the country’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said yesterday following discussions with his counterparts from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.

Houthi strikes send ripples in the oil market: The entry of Yemen’s Houthis into the fray pushed Brent up more than 3% to USD 116.43 per barrel, putting it on track to hit a record monthly gain. The global benchmark is up around 60% since the beginning of the month.

Renewables push is under pressure

Saudi is on track to miss its ambitious renewables target, something that’s now exacerbated by unprecedented supply chain disruptions. Analysts at GlobalData expect the Kingdom to reach some 74.2 GW of renewables capacity by 2030, well below its target of 130 GW.

Where are we at now? Installed capacity stood at just 13 GW as of last year. That leaves Saudi needing to add over 23 GW annually over the next four years to close the gap. The pace is now looking increasingly difficult as the ongoing regional tensions begin to spill into logistics, shipping, and project execution.

Constraints are shifting: The problem is no longer whether Saudi can tender projects — it’s whether those projects can be built on time, on budget, and at scale in a region where logistics are becoming less predictable. What used to be a linear buildout is now exposed to delays, cost volatility, and sequencing risks that sit outside the control of developers.

Solar and wind buildouts are heavily dependent on predictable supply chains. Panels, battery cells, inverters, cables, nacelles, blades, and substation components all move through the same trade arteries now being hit by ins. premiums, rerouting, and vessel hesitation.

The solar energy push remains reliant on imported hardware, with China dominating up to 85% of solar manufacturing capacity.

Wind could face an even sharper bottleneck: Large wind components are a logistics headache even in stable times. Turbine blades exceeding 80 meters, towers, and heavy nacelle equipment require specialized handling, port infrastructure, and inland transport corridors.

If conflict-related shipping volatility persists, the lead times for these components could stretch further, creating sequencing problems across installation schedules. One delayed shipment can stall an entire project timeline because the buildout chain is tightly coordinated.

Delays hit where it hurts: Every extra day at sea pushes back project commissioning schedules, while every spike in freight rates feeds directly into capex assumptions that were often built on tight tariff bids.

Why this matters: Saudi’s recent solar and wind tenders were awarded at aggressively low tariffs, leaving very little room for cost overruns. Even modest logistics inflation can erode project economics and delay financial close.

The silver lining

Missing the target does not necessarily mean failure — the more meaningful question is whether Saudi can still build enough renewable capacity to materially reduce its domestic reliance on liquid fuel generation. If the Kingdom reaches anything close to the projected 74 GW range, that is still a massive buildout by regional standards and would materially reshape the power mix.

GCC lenders may trade dividend growth for safety margins

GCC banks — including Saudi heavyweights — boast enough capital to weather a two-month escalation in the US-Iran war, but that safety comes with a price tag, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence report picked up by Alsharq Business. To keep their Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratios from dipping into the “danger zone” below 13%, banks might have to slash 2026 dividend payouts by as much as 50%.

CET1? CET1 is a bank’s core financial shock absorber. It is the highest-quality capital a bank holds to protect it against unexpected losses. Regulators watch the CET1 Ratio, which measures this “pure” capital against the risk of its loans, to ensure a bank can stay stable even during a crisis.

Safety margin math: The sector is expected to absorb a 5–15% hit to net income as risk costs climb and credit growth starts to cool off. By halving 2026 dividends, the industry could hang onto some USD 10 bn in capital. In banking terms, the move would add roughly 50 bps to risk-weighted assets as an extra “safety margin” to the balance sheet to survive the volatility.

While Saudi banks are generally some of the best-capitalized in the world, not everyone has the same breathing room: Any bank watching its CET1 ratio slide toward 14% is expected to prioritize fortifying its balance sheets over aggressive distributions to investors. The report specifically flags Bank Al Jazira and Saib as having slightly thinner capital buffers compared to the Kingdom’s giants.

Survival mindset to take over past the 60-day mark: If the conflict stretches past the 60-day mark, Bloomberg Intelligence sees these dividend cuts becoming a certainty rather than a precaution as the regional banking environment shifts from a “high-growth, high-payout” model to a state of capital preservation.

What this means for the market: To protect their capital, banks are expected to pull back on non-essential corporate lending, potentially slow down non-priority private-sector projects as lenders focus their remaining capacity on strategic sovereign priorities.

Maharah, Cenomi Centers post 2025 results

Maharah

Maharah Human Resources Company’s net income rose 56% y-o-y to SAR 272.8 mn in 2025, driven by higher revenue, improved margins, lower provisions, and a one-off SAR 105 mn gain from the sale of its stake in Care Shield Holding, it said in an earnings release (pdf). Revenue climbed 39% y-o-y to SAR 3.1 bn over the year, supported by strong demand across key segments — corporate services (up 50%) and individual services (up 15%) — alongside a 23% increase in average workforce deployed.

Dividends: The company distributed SAR 67.5 mn in dividends for 2025 at SAR 0.15 apiece.

Cenomi Centers

Cenomi Centers posted a 4.2% y-o-y increase in net income to SAR 1.3 bn in 2025, supported by ins. proceeds and a gain from the sale of Al Kharj land, it said in an earnings release (pdf). However, 2024 was weighed down by one-off financing write-offs and higher impairments, leaving underlying net income for 2025 broadly flat (up 0.3%). Revenue fell 2.4% y-o-y to SAR 2.3 bn in 2025, mainly due to the prior-year inclusion of Dhahran Mall, while on a like-for-like basis, revenue rose 5.5%.

Najran Cement

Najran Cement’s net income dropped 46.3% y-o-y to SAR 36.7 mn in 2025, which it attributed to lower revenues and higher cost of production inputs, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Its topline declined 3.4% y-o-y to SAR 516.1 mn during the year on the back of drops in sales prices and volumes.

Also, Najran Cement secured a SAR 49 mn facility from Saudi National Bank to back its electrical grid connection project, it said in a separate disclosure. The facility will be repaid over two years.

Humain + Turing are building an AI marketplace, Siniora opens Jeddah plant, Red Sea International plans sukuk

Humain, Turing team up to launch enterprise AI Agent Marketplace

Humain partnered with US-based Turing to develop the world’s first enterprise-scale AI Agent Marketplace on Humain One, according to a press release (pdf) revealed at the FII Priority Miami Summit. The platform will allow companies to deploy AI agents across business functions and enable developers to publish and monetize them.

Why it matters: The marketplace plays into the Kingdom’s push to become an exporter of global AI infrastructure, with Turing already signed as its first US-based customer. It also points to a shift from SaaS to agent-based systems, where AI executes workflows rather than supports them — a transition Humain CEO Tareq Amin sees as the next phase of enterprise tech.

Jeddah gets a new frozen food plant

Jordan’s Siniora Food Industries opened a new food manufacturing plant in Jeddah, according to a press release. The first phase of the plant spans 11.5k sqm, has an annual production capacity of 10k tons of frozen and chilled products, and cost SAR 150 mn to build. The Saudi Industrial Development Fund (SIDF) financed 50% of the investment.

Why it matters: As the Kingdom prioritizes local content requirements, regional players like Siniora are shifting from export models to local manufacturing to protect their market share. The 50% SIDF backing signals that the Kingdom is willing to foot the bill to de-risk this transition for foreign operators.

Red Sea International to raise SAR 100 mn via sukuk

Red Sea International is planning a SAR 100 mn sukuk issuance under its murabaha sukuk program, according to a Tadawul disclosure. Proceeds will support working capital and cover remaining costs from restructuring initiatives, including cost optimization and the closure of unprofitable operations outside Saudi Arabia.

ADVISORS- Tarmeez Capital Financial Company was appointed as the sole lead arranger.

Maersk adds three shipping services to our ports

Shipping giant Maersk has added three new shipping services to Jeddah Islamic Port and King Abdullah Port linking them to key regional and international hubs — India’s Nhava Sheva and Mundra, and Oman’s Salalah — supporting a total capacity of 14.4k TEUs, according to a statement.

Gold nears bear market territory

Gold is teetering dangerously close to bear market territory, with prices falling 19% from their January peak as the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint sparks an international energy crisis and triggers more stagflation fears, Bloomberg reports. It’s not just gold — bonds, another typical hedge, have been caught in a rout since the start of the war, while BTC is at roughly half its pre-war peak.

Gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are also slated for the largest outflow in nearly four years following an almost 14-month-long rally, with all inflows of this year already erased, Bloomberg reported elsewhere.

Still, some are buying the dip: Gold prices ticked up 3% higher by market close on Friday after banks and money managers stepped in. Persistently high inflation and fiscal tightening are among key factors that continue to make gold attractive, Fidelity International’s George Efstathopoulos told the business news service.

But other headwinds could keep pressuring prices: Central banks could also start offloading gold holdings to prop up currencies, with Turkey already starting to sell and swap over USD 8 bn worth of gold reserves to the same end. Energy import-dependent countries are among those that have accumulated gold holdings recently, and they might look to sell them off in an environment of sustained high oil prices to shore up funds.

However, for now, a slowdown in accumulating reserves rather than a full-blown selloff is more likely, TD Securities’ Daniel Ghali said. Citigroup’s Max Layton expects gold to be higher within a year following a temporary shakedown.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are down sharply in early trading this morning as the regional war shows no signs of slowing down. Japan’s Nikkei is down over 4.6%, and South Korea’s Kospi is down 3.8%. Over on Wall Street, equity futures are in the red as investors await the March job report out at the end of the week.

TASI	11,076	-0.1% (YTD: +5.6%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,489	-0.5% (YTD: +7.3%)
NomuC	22,752	+0.1% (YTD: -2.3%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	46,404	-1.3% (YTD: +10.9%)
ADX	9,597	-0.1% (YTD: -4.0%)
DFM	5,511	-0.1% (YTD: -8.9%)
S&P 500	6,369	-1.7% (YTD: -7.0%)
FTSE 100	9,967	-0.1% (YTD: +0.2%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,506	-1.1% (YTD: -4.9%)
Brent crude	USD 116.55	+3.5%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.03	+3.3%
Gold	USD 4,524	+2.6%
BTC	USD 65,841	-0.8% (YTD: -24.9%)
Sukuk/bond market index	920.79	+0.1% (YTD: +0.2%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	148.74	-0.4% (YTD: -2.1%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	31.05	+13.2% (YTD: +107.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.13% yesterday on turnover of SAR 3.7 bn. The index is up 5.6% YTD.

In the green: Saleh Alrashed (+10.0%), Bawan (+7.6%), and Anaam (+6.4%).

In the red: Alkhaleej Training (-4.5%), Al Sagr Ins. (-2.9%), and Sarco (-2.8%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.1% yesterdayon turnover of SAR 20.1 mn. The index is down 2.3% YTD.

In the green: Dar Almarkabah (+17.7%), Alfakhera (+14.3%), and Leaf (+14.2%).

In the red: Almodawat (-11.8%), Mayar (-8.8%), and Itmam (-8.8%).

CALENDAR

MARCH

31 March (Tuesday): Zatca’s 23rd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

APRIL

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh.

28 April (Tuesday): GC Summit Saudi Arabia, Riyadh.

MAY

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

19-21 May (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid Al Adha holiday.

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

JULY

6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

AUGUST

31 August-3 Sep (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

SEPTEMBER

9-10 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

9-10 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

12-15 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

NOVEMBER

24-28 November (Tuesday-Saturday): Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun, Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
September: Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center;
November: The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah;
SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh;
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh;
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Capital Markets Forum takes place in March in Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

Sections

About

Privacy & Support

Get EnterpriseAM daily

Supply chain woes hit renewables target

An independent publication supported by

Today at a glance

JPMorgan offloads debt to power the PIF’s takeover of EA