State Dep’t approves missile sales to Saudi

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Hervé Renard re-appointed to lead Saudi national team

Good morning, wonderful people. It’s an uncharacteristically slow Sunday on the local front as we kick off the last week of October. Diplomacy and regional developments are the dominating themes both at home and internationally, as Israel struck military targets inside Iran and the US State Department approved missile sales to Saudi Arabia.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- The two-day Global PropTech Summit kicks off today at the Movenpick Hotel, Riyadh, expecting over 1k exhibitors and 22k visitors.

#2- The Human Resources and Manpower Expo gets underway in a few hours at the Riyadh International Exhibition and Convention, and will wrap up on Wednesday, 30 October.

WEATHER- Riyadh is looking at a high of 27°C and a low of 23°C today. Over in Jeddah, the temperature will peak at 38°C before dropping to 28°C. Meanwhile, Madinah will see a high of 38°C and a low of 26°C.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

The Future Investment Initiative Conference kicks off in the capital city this Tuesday, and runs until Thursday, 31 October. The conference — led by Public Investment Fund Governor Yasir Al Rumayyan — is expected to draw in top brass from the global finance stage, including Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, BlackRok CEO Larry Fink, Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser, and London Stock Exchange Julia Hoggett, according to Reuters.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

A unified tourist visa proposal for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is expected by year-end, enhancing economic integration and allowing tourists to visit all member states with a single entry visa, GCC Secretary-General Mohamed Al Badawi told Asharq Business.

OIL WATCH-

Oil prices closed last week higher, with North America benchmark West Texas Intermediate near USD 72 per barrel and global benchmark Brent above USD 76, as traders monitored rising tensions in the Middle East, Bloomberg reports. The lack of prospects for cease-fire talks between Iran and Israel have fueled uncertainty, sparking a surge in options trading. Adding to the pressure are fears of potential oversupply next year, driven by increased production from non-OPEC producers.

SPORTS-

Roberto Mancini resigned as head coach of Saudi Arabia’s national football team, according to a statement. The departure of the Italian coach, who was hired in August 2023, came through mutual consensus following Saudi Arabia’s recent home defeat to Japan during the 2026 World Cup qualifiers.

Out with the old, in with the… old? Former manager Hervé Renard was reappointed to lead the Saudi national team, the French coach confirmed on Instagram. Renard The French coach formerly managed the Saudi team between 2019 and 2023, leading a memorable victory over Argentina in the 2022 World Cup. The story got ink from Reuters, the Associated Press, BBC, and the NYT.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Israel strikes military targets inside Iran: Israel fighter jets struck western Iran and around Tehran over the weekend, killing four soldiers and causing what Iranian officials termed “limited damage” to military targets as the country sought to play down the magnitude of the strike. The strikes follow Iran’s 1 October ballistic missile attack on Israel.

The strike’s targets included missile factories, border radar systems, and solid fuel mixing facilities critical for ballistic missile production, among others. The strikes notably did not target Iran’s oil infrastructure or nuclear facilities — two areas that would be likely to trigger a strong Iranian response.

War of words: Iran struck a conciliatory tone in its statements following the strikes, emphasizing the overriding importance of securing a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon even as it condemned the raid and affirmed its right to defend itself. As Iran’s domestic media downplayed the attack, the Israeli government remained largely silent, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu banning his ministers from giving interviews in the hours after the strike. (Financial Times | Associated Press | Reuters)

On the other side of the globe, Donald Trump is once again making headlines following his interview with podcast host and MMA commentator Joe Rogan, which saw the former US president struggle to stay on-topic and remain cogent throughout the three-hour conversation. Trump repeated much the same rhetoric he has used throughout his campaign — including suggesting that the US is battling an “enemy from within” and reiterating the false claim that he was the winner of the 2020 US presidential election.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The five-day Jeddah International Motor Show revs up this Tuesday, 29 October, running through Saturday, 2 November. The event will showcase motorcycle and drift shows, sim and kart racing, a lineup of custom-tuned cars, and more.

WWE Raw is coming to Riyadh for the first time ever on 2-3 November, kicking off on the back of the WWE Crown Jewel event the day prior, Turki Alalshikh said in a post on X. You can book your Raw tickets here, and your Crown Jewel tickets here.

The two-day Road Safety and Sustainability Conference and Exhibition will open its doors on Sunday, 3 November, bringing global experts together to discuss technological advancements, AI applications, and sustainability in the transport sector.

The Kingdom will host the Ocean Race final in 2027 in Amaala, one of PIF-owned Red Sea Global’s flagship developments, according to a statement.

Washington OKs missile sale to Saudi + promises defense against Iran

US greenlights missile sale to Saudi Arabia, signals defense support against Iran: The US State Department approved a USD 440 mn sale of TOW missiles to Saudi Arabia, according to Reuters. NYSE-listed RTX Corp. will spearhead the transaction, though details on the quantity remain under wraps. The approved sale comes around two weeks after the State Department approved a total of USD 1.05 bn-worth of arms sales to Saudi, including Hellfire and Sidewinder missiles, as well as tank, artillery, and machine gun ammunition.

Background: The Biden administration lifted a three-year ban on the sale of offensive weapons to the Kingdom in August, saying that Riyadh upheld its end of an agreement with Washington on drawing back its conflict with the Houthis in Yemen.

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The approved sales come as Washington reportedly signaled it’s ready to defend Saudi Arabia against potential attacks from Iran or its proxies, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. Gulf states are concerned about the possibility of being pulled into the brewing conflict between Iran and Israel. Tehran has warned Gulf nations not to allow their airspace or military bases to be used in any attack, threatening that “Tehran will respond accordingly” if they do.

Saudi Arabia condemned Israel’s air strikes on Iran on Friday, referring to the attack as a breach of Iranian sovereignty and international law, SPA reports. The Kingdom also reiterated its warnings concerning continued escalation in the region, urging all parties to exercise restraint and pursue de-escalation. It also called on the international community to take positive steps towards safeguarding regional stability. Saudi officials deny that their country’s airspace was used in the strike against Iran, Reuters reports.

IN OTHER DIPLOMACY NEWS-

Saudi assistance to Palestine gets governance standards: The Arab Monetary Fund and the Palestinian government inked a letter of intent to roll out governance standards for financial assistance from the Kingdom to Palestine’s government on the sidelines of World Bank and IMF annual meetings in Washington, state news agency SPA reports.

The agreement will see aid efforts geared towards vital sectors accompanied with economic reforms, including steps to increase local revenue and limit expenditures, with additional measures to boost efficiency, governance, and transparency in public finances management while fostering business growth. Finance Minister Mohammed Al Jadaan reiterated the Kingdom’s commitment to monthly aid, while Palestine pledged transparency in fund management and reporting.

Non-oil exports rise 7.5% y-o-y in August

The Kingdom’s non-oil exports rose 7.5% y-o-y in August 2024, according to the latest data (pdf) from the General Authority for Statistics (Gastat). Non-oil exports — excluding re-exports — increased 3.0% y-o-y, while re-exports increased 18.9% during the same period. Imports fell by 3.9%, the data showed.

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ICYMI: The Kingdom’s non-oil exports rose 19.0% y-o-y in July, as oil exports continued to fall.

Non-oil exports continue to sprint ahead of imports: The ratio of non-oil exports to imports jumped 4.5 percentage points from the previous year to 42.5% in August on the back of a 7.5% rise in non-oil exports against declining imports (-3.9%).

Key exports and imports: Chemical product exports increased 9.3% y-o-y and made up 25.8% of total non-oil exports. These were followed by plastics, rubber, and derivatives which were up 1% and accounted for 23.9% of total non-oil exports. Machinery, electrical equipment, and parts were the largest import category, up 5.6% y-o-y and accounting for 26.2% of total imports. Transportation equipment and parts followed, falling 11.7% during the period and comprising 13.5% of imports.

China remained Saudi’s top export destination, accounting for 16.0% of merchandise exports, followed by South Korea (9.6%) and India (9.5%). Japan, the UAE, the USA, Bahrain, Egypt, Poland, and Malaysia were also among Saudi’s top-10 export partners, with merchandise exports to the 10 countries comprising 67.7% of total merchandise exports, including re-exports.

China is also our go-to for imports, contributing 22.2% of total imports in August, followed by the USA (9.6%) and India (6.2%). Germany, the UAE, Italy, Japan, Egypt, the United Kingdom, and South Korea followed in terms of import volumes, with imports from our top-10 import partners counting for 62.7% of total imports.

Ports of the month: Dammam’s King Abdulaziz Port handled 28.5% of imports in August 2024, followed by Jeddah Islamic Port (21.2%), and Riyadh’s King Khalid Int’l Airport (13.2%).

ON THE OIL SIDE-

Oil exports decline even further: Oil’s share of total exports dropped by 4.8 percentage points when compared to the previous year, and 2.8 percentage points m-o-m, to 70.3% in August 2024. Saudi’s revenue from oil exports declined 6% m-o-m to USD 17.4 bn in August 2024, hittings its lowest since June 2021, with the decline coming on the back of sluggish demand from China, falling oil prices, and increased competition from non-Opec+ producers led by the US, Bloomberg said.

Fresh regs for railway licensing + passenger services

The Transport General Authority rolled out comprehensive regulations governing railway operations, infrastructure, and passenger services. These regulations cover everything from safety protocols and ownership approvals to licensing requirements and maintenance standards.

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Ownership + infrastructure approvals: All public railway infrastructure projects now require sign-off from infrastructure owners, who will set the technical and safety benchmarks. Meanwhile, ownership transfers, asset guarantees, and concessions must receive formal approval from the authority. Contract terminations demand prior notification and a formal explanation.

Licensing + compliance: Operators must hold valid licenses and safety certificates, with all applications and renewals processed under the new regulations. Suspending operations now require approval from the authority. Non-compliance, unauthorized ownership changes, or lapses in safety could lead to license suspension or cancellation.

Operations + passenger rights: The authority oversees service operations, route allocations, and usage fees to ensure fairness. Operators must offer accessible, high-quality services, assist passengers with luggage, and compensate for service disruptions. Passengers are responsible for holding valid tickets and following safety rules, with complaints managed directly by the Authority to uphold service standards.

Maintenance + violations + penalties: Operators must adhere to safety and maintenance standards, whether in-house or outsourced. Penalties apply for violations such as unauthorized construction or negligence, unless exempted by force majeure. A full breakdown of the penalties is available here (pdf).

Alinma and Saib report growing bottom lines in 3Q 2024,

ALINMA BANK-

Alinma Bank’s net income was up 18.7% y-o-y at SAR 1.57 bn in 3Q 2024 on the back of higher gains from financing and investments, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The lender’s total income from financing grew 18.9% y-o-y to SAR 3.7 bn, while total income from investment jumped 20.9% to SAR 529.6 mn over the same period.

On a 9M basis: Alinma’s bottomline grew 22.3% y-o-y to SAR 4.3 bn during the first nine months of the year. Its total income from financing was up 26.5% y-o-y to SAR 10.5 bn, while total income from investment was up 23.6% to SAR 1.46 bn.

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SAUDI INVESTMENT BANK-

Saudi Investment Bank’s (Saib) net income was up 12.2% y-o-y at SAR 517.8 mn in 3Q 2024 on the back of gains to total operating income and declines in provisions for credit and other losses, the bank said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The lender’s total income from financing grew 20.3% during the period at SAR 1.77 bn, while total income from investment increased 8.9% at SAR 550.1 mn.

On a 9M basis: Saib’s bottomline grew 10.1% y-o-y at SAR 1.45 bn during the first nine months of the year, with the increase driven by gains to operating income as well as decreases to some categories of expenses. Meanwhile, total income from financing was up 24.9% at SAR 5 bn, and total income from investment was up 11.5% at SAR 1.55 bn.

Sindalah’s grand reveal makes the rounds

The upcoming reveal of Sindalah Island is getting international attention as the first component of Neom scheduled to open its gates, Bloomberg reports. A “handpicked” group of global financiers, entertainers, and influencers will preview the luxury resort island ahead of the Future Investment Initiative (FII), which begins this week.

Sindalah’s debut has been strategically timed to coincide with the FII and drum up investments for megaprojects, senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy Karen Young said.

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MEANWHILE- Kushner’s Saudi business is under scrutiny: Democratic lawmakers called on the US attorney general to appoint a special counsel to investigate former US President and current presidential candidate Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner’s business ties with Saudi Arabia, according to an open letter (pdf).

SWPC selects local consortium to develop the Ras Mohaisen independent water plant

INFRASTRUCTURE-

Gov’t names consortium for developing Ras Mohaisen desalination project: The Saudi Water Partnership Company selected a local consortium of Acwa Power, Haji Abdullah Alireza and Co., and AlKifah Holding as its preferred bidder for developing the Ras Mohaisen independent water plant, according to a post on X. Meanwhile, Spanish infrastructure developer Acciona was named as the reserve bidder.

About the project: The project primarily features a reverse osmosis desalination plant with a total production capacity of 300k cbm per day (100k cbm in the first phase), scheduled to operate in 1Q 2028, and 200k cbm in the second phase, expected to operate in 1Q 2030. The project also includes a 600k cbm water storage system, and a power substation.

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HOSPITALITY-

PIF-owned developer Ardara tapped US-based architectural design firm OBMI to design the first phase of AlWadi, the company’s flagship project in downtown Abha, including four- and five-star hotels, residences, and commercial facilities, among others, Ardara said on X. Ardara also signed an agreement with US-based, tech-focused construction firm Parsons for the project’s infrastructure and engineering designs, the developer said in a separate post. No investment tickets were disclosed.

AUTOMOTIVE-

The Commerce Ministry is recalling some 16k vehicles due to faulty brake fluid warning lights, it said in a post on X. The recalled models include 8.5k Chevrolet Silverado LD, Tahoe, and Suburban models, 6.9k GMC Yukon, Yukon XL, and Sierra LD models, and 579 Cadillac Escalades and Escalade ESVs.

Fitch trims MENA growth to 1.8% in 2024

Fitch warned that the Middle East region is entering 2025 “on shaky ground,” against the backdrop of the ongoing war, economic headwinds, and political uncertainty following the US elections, during a webinar earlier this week. The agency expects the region’s economy to grow at c. 1.8% in 2024, down from the 2.3% it penciled in last August, according to Fitch Solutions company BMI’s latest outlook (pdf).

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A rebound is expected next year: The regional economy will pick up to over 3% by next year, according to its forecast.

UAE to lead the region: BMI anticipates the Emirates’ economy to grow at the fastest pace in 2025, anticipated to accelerate to 5.2% in 2025, fueled by increased oil production and the government’s diversification efforts.

REMEMBER- The UAE is set to increase its oil production to 3.5 mn barrels per day (bbl / d) in 2025 after Opec+ raising its quota from the current 2.9 mn bbl / d.

BMI also sees strong growth for Saudi Arabia, forecasting the Kingdom’s economy to make a dramatic rebound from approximately 0.3% in 2024 to around 4.7% in 2025.

Downside risks remain: Potential risks that could hamper growth include Opec’s production cuts failing to lift oil prices, which could hinder diversification efforts in the region, Fitch analysts noted during the webinar.

ALSO WORTH NOTING-

Morocco plans to fully float its currency starting 2026, the country’s Central Bank Governor Abdellatif Jouahri said. Morocco intends to gradually remove the current EUR-USD peg and move towards a market-driven currency, with the central bank “technically ready” and preparing the banking system for the transition. (Bloomberg)
G7 countries finalized a USD 50 bn loan to shore up Ukraine’s budget and support military and reconstruction efforts. The multilateral loan is backed by income generated from frozen Russian central bank assets. (Bloomberg)
Global leaders at IMF and World Bank meetings criticized China’s President Xi Jinping’s recent stimulus package, citing ambiguity as well as a lack of focus on consumer spending and manufacturing overcapacity. Meanwhile, investors are on the lookout for additional fiscal measures out of upcoming meetings between Chinese legislators in November. (Bloomberg)

TASI	11,886	-0.1% (YTD: -0.7%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,495	0.0% (YTD: -3.6%)
NomuC	26,818	+1.7% (YTD: +9.3%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	5.5% repo	5.0% reverse repo
EGX30	30,553	+0.5% (YTD: +22.7%)
ADX	9,204	+0.1% (YTD: +3.9%)
DFM	4,479	+0.3% (YTD: +10.3%)
S&P 500	5,808	0.0% (YTD: +21.8%)
FTSE 100	8,249	-0.3% (YTD: +6.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	4,943	+0.2% (YTD: +9.3%)
Brent crude	USD 76.05	+2.3%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.56	+1.5%
Gold	USD 2,755	+0.2%
BTC	USD 67,096	-0.3% (YTD: +58.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.1% on Thursday on turnover of SAR 4.4 bn. The index is down 0.7% YTD.

In the green: Rasan (+10.0%), Arabian Mills (+3.0%) and Talco (+2.4%).

In the red: Al Baha (-6.7%), Uacc (-3.8%) and Cenomi Retail (-3.3%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 1.7% on Thursday on turnover of SAR 63.1 mn. The index is up 9.3% YTD.

In the green: Banan (+29.9%), Taqat (+18.5%) and Sama Water (+15.8%).

In the red: Meyar (-8.2%), Dar Al Markabah (-7.1) and Leaf (-5.9%)

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Alinma Bank will distribute SAR 745.7 mn in dividends to shareholders at SAR 0.3 per share for 3Q 2024, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The distribution date is set for Thursday, 21 November.

CALENDAR

OCTOBER

27-28 (Sunday-Monday): The Global PropTech Summit, Movenpick Hotels & Resorts, Riyadh.

27-30 (Sunday-Wednesday): Human Resources and Manpower Expo, Riyadh International Exhibition and Convention Center, Riyadh.

29-31 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Investment Initiative Conference, Riyadh.

29 October – 2 November (Tuesday-Saturday): Jeddah International Motor Show, Superdome, Jeddah.

30 October – 3 November (Wednesday-Sunday): Hia Hub 4.0, Riyadh.

31 October (Thursday): No-visa travel for Saudis to Montenegro on charter flights expires.

NOVEMBER

2 November (Saturday): WWE Crown Jewel, Riyadh.

3 November (Sunday): WWE Raw, Riyadh.

3-4 November (Sunday-Monday): Road Safety & Sustainability Conference: Innovating for Tomorrow, Riyadh.

2-9 November (Saturday- Saturday): WTA Finals, Riyadh.

3-23 November (Sunday-Sunday): NEOM Beach Games, Neom.

4-7 November (Monday-Thursday): Saudi Build, Riyadh.

5-9 November (Tuesday-Saturday): Biban24 Forum, The Front Exhibition and Conference Center, Riyadh.

11-14 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Center.

11-22 November (Monday-Friday): The Diplomatic Conference to Conclude and Adopt a Design Law Treaty, Riyadh.

26-28 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Saudi Electricity Expo, Riyadh.

11-12 November (Monday-Tuesday): World Advanced Manufacturing Logistics Summit & Expo, Riyadh.

11-12 November (Monday-Tuesday): Saudi Airport Exhibition, Riyadh.

11-12 November (Monday-Tuesday): Expenditure Efficiency Forum, The Hilton, Riyadh.

11-13 November (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Intermobility Expo 2024, Jeddah.

11-14 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh.

16 November (Saturday): Latino Night at Riyadh Season, Riyadh.

18-20 November (Monday-Wednesday): The Heavy Equipment and Truck Show, Dammam.

19-20 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): The Women’s Economic Forum 2024, Dammam.

19-21 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Saudi International Maritime Forum, Dammam.

23 November (Saturday): Red Sea 600, Jeddah Yacht Club and Marina.

25-27 November (Monday-Wednesday): World Investment Conference, Riyadh.

26-28 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Power Expo, Riyadh.

28 November-14 December (Thursday-Saturday): Noor Riyadh, Riyadh.

29 November-2 December 2024 (Sunday-Wednesday): World Sailing Youth Match Racing World Championship, Jeddah Yacht Club and Marina.

DECEMBER

1 December (Sunday): Opec+ to meet.

2-3 December (Monday-Tuesday) Wings of Change Middle East, Riyadh.

3-5 December (Tuesday-Thursday): The International Business Exchange – IBEX EVENTS, Riyadh.

4-5 December (Wednesday-Thursday): Zakat, Tax and Customs Conference, Riyadh.

11 December (Wednesday): Billboard Arabia Music Awards (BBAMAs), King Abdullah Financial District, Riyadh.

2-13 December (Monday-Friday): Conference of the Parties (COP16) to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, Riyadh.

5-8 December (Thursday-Sunday): World Sailing Women’s Match Racing World Championship, Jeddah Yacht Club and Marina.

11 December (Wednesday): FIFA Congress, which will decide the hosting countries for the FIFA World Cup 2030 and 2034

15-19 December (Sunday-Thursday): Internet Governance Forum, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

23-26 December (Monday-Thursday): Aqarat Expo, Riyadh.

2025

JANUARY 2025

14-16 January (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Minerals Forum, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

27-29 January (Monday-Wednesday): Real Estate Future Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 January (Tuesday-Wednesday): Sustainability Forum Middle East, Riyadh.

29-30 January (Wednesday-Thursday): Global Labor Market Conference, Riyadh.

FEBRUARY 2025

4-5 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): The RLC Global Forum, Riyadh.

6-8 February (Thursday-Saturday): Liv Golf season opener, Riyadh Golf Club, Riyadh.

10-13 February (Monday-Thursday): Leap 2025, the Kingdom’s premier tech investment conference.

14-15 February (Friday-Saturday): Formula E, Diriyah.

19-21 February (Wednesday-Friday): Saudi Media Forum, Riyadh.

22 February (Saturday): Founding Day.

MARCH 2025

31 March- 3 April (Monday-Thursday): Eid al-Fitr.

MAY 2025

31 May-5 June (Saturday-Thursday): Hajj.

JUNE 2025

6-9 June ( Friday-Monday): Eid al-Adha.

26 June (Thursday): 2024-2025 academic year ends.

SEPTEMBER 2025

23 September (Tuesday): Saudi National Day.

2026

UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

2027

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.

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