Saudi’s economy grows at 4.5% clip in 2025, beating expectations

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Opec+ keeps hikes on ice through March

Good morning, friends. It is shaping up to be a good news / bad news kind of day as we start our countdown to Ramadan.

THE GOOD- The economy grew 4.5% last year, marking its fastest expansion since 2022 thanks to a 5.6% growth in oil activity.

THE BAD- TASI ended the first trading day of the month in the red, shedding 1.9% right after closing its best month since 2022 — the index jumped 8.5% in January to end the month at 11.4k points.

WEATHER- Thunderclouds bringing rain, active winds, and possible fog are forecast over the highlands of Jazan, Asir, Al Baha, Makkah, and parts of Madinah, while fog may also form in parts of the Eastern Province.

Riyadh: 29°C high / 14°C low.
Jeddah: 33°C high / 23°C low.
Makkah: 33°C high / 23°C low.
Dammam: 27°C high / 12°C low.

Watch this space

OIL — Opec+ decidedto keep its planned oil production hikes on ice through March, chalking up the move to “seasonality.” Further cuts or hikes this year will depend on market conditions, with the next meeting slated for 1 March.

Playing it safe: The pause gives the producers space to gauge market conditions amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. By delaying hikes despite healthy markets, Opec+ is also signaling it is more focused on keeping prices stable than they are on acquiring a bigger slice of the market share.

Opec expects global oil demand to rise by 1.39 mn bbl / d this year, while demand for their own Opec crude will hold steady at 43 mn bbl / d. If Opec holds this rate through 2026, supply would sit some 170k bbl / d below demand.

IPO — Saleh Abdulaziz Al Rashed & Sons is looking to raise up to SAR 251 mn from its IPO on Tadawul’s main market, the first real test of 2026 after what has been a bruising year for Saudi equities. The price range was set at SAR 43-45, valuing the construction materials and mining group at SAR 800-837 mn at listing, according to a news release (pdf).

What’s next? Institutional investors have until Thursday, 5 February to pick up the entirety of the 5.58 mn shares on offer. If demand falls short, up to 30% of the shares can be offered to retail investors between 12-17 February, with final allocations due on 24 February.

ADVISORS- ANB Capital is leading the transaction as financial advisor, lead manager, bookrunner, and underwriter. Receiving agents include ANB Capital, Alinma Capital, Saudi Fransi Capital, Al Rajhi Capital, Riyad Capital, Albilad Investment, Al Jazira Capital, Alistithmar Capital, Derayah Financial, SNB Capital, Yaqeen Capital, Al Khabeer Capital, Sab Invest, Sahm Capital, GIB Capital, Musharaka Capital, EFG Hermes KSA, Awaed Alosool Capital, and Dinar Investment.

INVESTMENT — Is EM private credit becoming more attractive? Saudi-based wealth management firm The Family Office sees stronger private credit opportunities in emerging markets than in developed economies, as interest rate cuts in major markets compress their returns, CEO Abdulmohsin Omran Al Omran told Asharq Business.

Why it matters: Turning to emerging-market private credit and secondary markets reflects a search for better value outside increasingly crowded Western markets, rather than continuing to chase yield in major economies.

A no-commodity strategy? The Family Office does not invest in gold or other commodities, Al Omran said, saying clients are exposed enough to oil. He expects the price to rise up to USD 6k an ounce, although it can see sharp corrections.

Data point

SAR 1.9 tn — that’s the value of assets held by the Saudi Central Bank (Sama) in December, down 2.4% m-o-m, according to Sama’s monthly bulletin (pdf). Despite the monthly pullback, assets were still up 1.9% y-o-y.

The monthly drop came as several components weakened. Investments in foreign securities — which account for 53.6% of total assets — edged down 0.3% y-o-y to SAR 1 tn, while banknotes in vault slid 39.7% y-o-y to SAR 13.6 bn. This was partially offset by a jump in deposits with banks abroad, which rose 25.2% y-o-y to SAR 400.1 bn.

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The big story abroad

It’s a quiet Monday morning in the global business press, with one story dominating the headlines — the gold and silver crash. Bloomberg is out with a piece looking at the role Chinese speculators played in the metals’ rally and subsequent crash. The rally seen by gold, sustained over years by central banks hedging against potential losses from the USD, was intensified in recent weeks by a wave of buying from Chinese investors and equity funds.

Then came the selloff: As soon as the greenback started heading upwards, boosted by news of Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair, Shanghai cashed out its holdings in gold. The fallout saw the metal dropping at one point by more than USD 200 an ounce in ten minutes.

Silver was another casualty of the sudden twist of fate, dropping by 27% on Friday — its biggest drop on record.

^^ We have more on the rebound of the USD and gold crash in this morning’s Planet Finance.

CLOSER TO HOME- Egypt, Qatar, Turkey to broker US-Iran talks this week: The Trump administration is reportedly open to a diplomatic solution with Iran, as Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey work to broker a sitdown in Ankara this week, Axios reported, citing sources it says are in the know. Negotiations would involve a meeting between White House envoy Steve Witkoff and high level Iranian officials to discuss averting the breakout of a regional war.

GDP grows at 4.5% clip in 2025, beating expectations

The Kingdom’s economy picked up steam in 2025, with real GDP expanding by 4.5% for the year — marking a major leap from the 2.7% recorded in 2024 and its strongest performance since 2022, according to flash estimates (pdf) released by the General Authority for Statistics.

Topping forecasts: The 4.5% growth rate slightly edged out the Finance Ministry’s own 4.4% projection and comfortably beat expectations from global players like the IMF (4.3%) and the World Bank (3.8%).

Under the hood-

Oil activities led the 2025 expansion, chugging along at 5.6% growth as Opec+ eased supply cuts. The Kingdom’s output hit an average of roughly 10 mn bbl / d in 4Q 2025 — the highest we’ve seen since early 2023, according to Bloomberg.

Non-oil was no slouch: Non-oil activities maintained robust momentum, growing at a 4.9% clip, “driven by oil derivatives and improvements in manufacturing (assembly),” MENA Economist Hamzeh Al Gaaod tells EnterpriseAM. Non-oil activities contributed 2.7 percentage points to the total GDP growth, nearly doubling the 1.4 percentage point contribution from oil.

Government activities grew at a steady 0.9%, adding a small but helpful 0.1 percentage point bump to the final tally alongside net taxes’ 0.2 percentage point contribution.

Ending the year on a high note

Real GDP rose 4.9% y-o-y in 4Q 2025, driven largely by a 10.4% y-o-y jump in oil activities. Non-oil sectors grew 4.1%, while government activities slipped 1.2% during the period.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, real GDP expanded 1.1% q-o-q in 4Q 2025, supported by a 1.4% rise in oil activities and a 1.3% gain in non-oil sectors. Government activity recorded a modest 0.2% decline.

TASI rises 8.5% in January, but metals rout hits top gainers

TASI’s honeymoon ended abruptly yesterday as fears of a US-Iran escalation and a metals slump snapped the market’s month-long streak. The index shed 1.9% on the first trading day of February, the highest slump in around 10 months, reversing a trend that saw the market price in the opening of the kingdom to mass foreign investment.

The drop comes immediately after TASI’s best monthly gains since 2022, which saw the index jump 8.5% in January to close at 11.38k points and claw back some of the heavy losses it suffered last year. Heavyweights led the surge as Aramco gained 8% in January, while banks broadly outperformed as expectations of stronger liquidity and foreign inflows took hold.

Why it matters

The market spent January wagering on structural reform: The Capital Markets Authority scrapped the Qualified Foreign Investor regime and welcomed all categories of non-Saudi investors as of yesterday, officially removing the USD 500 mn AUM barrier for foreign investors.

The rally was welcome news for the new class of investors as well as companies looking to IPO this year, but reality bit back yesterday. The optimism collided with geopolitical risk as the Trump administration’s deployment of forces and Tehran’s vow to retaliate spooked investors.

A sharp global slump in materials prices also reversed the bullish sentiment on metals, leading Amak and Maaden to become the biggest casualties of the sell-off, shortly after leading TASI’s gains in January.

The mining volatility could be a boon for other sectors: Hussein Al Raqib of Zad Consulting suggests the banking sector will emerge as the primary beneficiary of the new foreign inflows. With robust solvency and high profitability, banks like Al Rajhi and Saudi National are positioned as “safe havens” against the current volatility, Al Raqib told Asharq Business.

What’s next?

The bear case: Global capital was heading into 2026 with a risk-off sentiment toward the region. Major fund managers told Bloomberg earlier that despite the QFI opening, softer oil prices and the lack of immediate earnings catalysts are keeping them on the sidelines.

The removal of the QFI rules removes friction, but doesn’t create demand on its own, Aleqtisaih’s Ahmed Al Rasheed told Asharq Business. Foreign investors will now wait for 4Q earnings and clear fundamentals before deploying capital, Al Rasheed says.

The bull case: Kamco Invest’s Junaid Ansari argues the market is “oversold” and primed for a rebound, citing robust banking sector lending and earnings growth that ignore the geopolitical noise.

ANB’s net income rises 3% y-o-y in 2025, Nadec’s falls 49%

Arab National Bank

Arab National Bank’s (ANB) net income rose 3% y-o-y to SAR 5.1 bn in 2025 — in line with Bloomberg analysts’ expectations — a Tadawul disclosure showed. The growth was driven by a rise in income from fees, trading, and dividends, alongside lower impairment and administrative costs. This was partially offset by an uptick in staff-related and depreciation expenses.

MEANWHILE- The bank’s total income from financing rose 3.7% y-o-y to SAR 12.3 bn over the same period, while its total income from investments climbed 14.6% y-o-y to SAR 2.9 bn.

Dividends: The bank’s board agreed to distribute SAR 1.3 bn in interim dividends for the second half of 2025 at SAR 0.65 apiece, starting Monday, 16 February, according to a separate bourse filing.

Nadec

The National Agricultural Development Company (Nadec) saw its net income fall 49.2% y-o-y to SAR 393.4 mn in 2025, primarily due to the absence of a non-recurring gain of SAR 356.5 mn from investing in Arabian Mills, it said in a Tadawul disclosure. Meanwhile, revenue grew 9.5% y-o-y to SAR 3.5 bn during the period, driven by strong performance across the protein, agri, and dairy divisions.

Development & Expenditure Efficiency authorities tap new CEOs

The Saudi Development Authority appointed Badr Alherbish (LinkedIn) as its CEO, it said in a statement yesterday. Alherbish brings over 20 years of experience in strategy, business development, and project management, having previously served as Chief Strategy Officer, Executive Director of Strategy, and partnerships advisor at the Tourism Development Fund.

ALSO- The Expenditure Efficiency and Projects Authority named Abdulrahman Albesher (LinkedIn) as its CEO, it said in a statement yesterday. Albesher brings extensive experience in strategy, business development, financial management, digital transformation, and project management across both public and private sectors.

Sama greenlights another microfinance firm, Acwa eyes ammonia corridor

Sama greenlights Jarir’s consumer microfinance firm

Jarir Marketing secured preliminary approval from the Saudi Central Bank to establish a consumer microfinance firm, Rifd Integrated Company, with a capital of SAR 50 mn, it said in a Tadawul disclosure. The move remains subject to final regulatory clearance before the new entity can start its lending operations.

BACKGROUND- Jarir had signed a non-binding MoU to establish the company in December 2024. Under the agreement, Jarir will hold a 49% stake in Rifd, Aman Egypt will own 41%, and Hamad bin Abdullah bin Suleiman Al Manaya & Co. will control the remaining 10%.

Acwa Power eyes Saudi-German green ammonia corridor

Acwa Power inked an MoU with German companies to establish a green ammonia export corridor — slated for commercial operation in 2030, Argaam reported yesterday, citing a statement it has seen. The German partners include Energie Baden-Württemberg (EnBW), Rostock Port, and VNG.

The details: The green ammonia will be shipped from Acwa’s facility in Yanbu to Rostock Port, where it will be converted into green hydrogen by VNG and injected into Germany’s national grid. The development of Acwa’s facility is on track and is set to be completed by mid-2026, the power giant said.

Saco secures SAR 150 mn credit facility from Saudi National Bank

The Saudi Company for Hardware (Saco) secured a SAR 150 mn Shariah-compliant credit facility from the Saudi National Bank, according to a Tadawul disclosure. The 12-month facility will go toward financing working capital and buying letters of credit.

Crowded trades reverse as metals plunge and USD gains

A week of sharp market swings showed how quickly crowded trades can reverse. Tns of USD shifted as consensus bets stumbled, revealing the delicate positioning beneath an otherwise resilient bull market, Bloomberg reports. Precious metals bore the brunt of the volatility, with gold seeing its sharpest drop in decades and silver suffering a record-breaking plunge.

What happened? The USD index posted its biggest single-day gain since May, strengthening the greenback and unwinding the debasement trade that had fueled metals. The rebound crushed short-USD positions, sending gold down more than 9% and silver about 27% in a single session while triggering the worst relative day for emerging-market equities versus US stocks since May.

The selloff followed an extended period of crowding where gold had been trading around 44% above its long-term trendline — a premium last seen in 1980. Long gold was already flagged as the most crowded global trade, according to Bank of America’s fund manager survey for January, leaving markets vulnerable to a violent correction once sentiment turned.

What drove everyone to metals? The ever-increasing uncertainty taking over the global stage since January, fueled by unpredictable decisions made by the Trump administration, such as the sudden military operation in Venezuela and the looming threat of attacks on Iran.

“The unthinkable has been happening daily. The rally was obviously too much too fast,” Nicky Shiels, analyst at MKS Pam told the Financial Times.

The Warsh effect: The selloff accelerated after US President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair, with his hawkish reputation reviving uncertainty over the future path of rate cuts, according to Bloomberg analysts.

Investors weigh next moves: Some investors who rode gold’s rally are now questioning whether the pullback signals an early warning or just a pause. Jeff Muhlenkamp, whose USD 270 mn fund has benefited from the rally, told the business news service that the drop complicates exit decisions, as selling too soon risks missing further upside.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

It is shaping up to be another eventful week for markets, as investors digest the latest fluctuations in gold and silver prices, the USD’s rebound after hitting lows not seen in years, and Trump’s nominee for Jay Powell’s replacement as Fed chair. Asia-Pacific markets are in the red this morning in early trading, with South Korea’s Kospi leading losses.

TASI	11,167	-1.9% (YTD: +6.5%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,503	-2.1% (YTD: +8.3%)
NomuC	23,735	-0.7% (YTD: +1.9%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	47,663	-0.3% (YTD: +14.0%)
ADX	10,282	-0.8% (YTD: +2.9%)
DFM	6,435	-0.7% (YTD: +6.4%)
S&P 500	6,939	-0.4% (YTD: +1.4%)
FTSE 100	10,224	+0.5% (YTD: +2.9%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,948	+1.0% (YTD: +2.7%)
Brent crude	USD 69.32	-0.4%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 4.35	+11.1%
Gold	USD 4,745.1	-11.4%
BTC	USD 76,664	-2.1% (YTD: -12.3%)
Sukuk/bond market index	916.42	-0.1% (YTD: -0.3%)
S&P MENA bond & sukuk	151.48	-0.1% (YTD: -0.3%)
VIX (Fear gauge)	17.44	+3.3% (YTD: +16.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 1.9% yesterday on turnover of SAR 4.4 bn. The index is up 6.5% YTD.

In the green: Medgulf (+7.3%), Alaseel (+3.0%) and Avalon Pharma (+2.6%).

In the red: Amak (-9.9%), Maaden (-9.5%) and Sidc (-6.2%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.7% yesterday on turnover of SAR 21.5 mn. The index is up 1.9% YTD.

In the green: Miral (+7.4%), Tibbiyah (+6.8%) and Itmam (+5.3%).

In the red: Almodawat (-8.7%), Horizon Food (-7.7%) and Service Equipment (-7.6%).

CALENDAR

FEBRUARY

2-4 February (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Media Forum, Riyadh.

2-4 February (Monday-Wednesday): Women Leaders Summit and Awards KSA, Riyadh.

2-13 February (Monday-Friday): 2026 Asian Road Cycling Championship and Paralympic Cycling, Qassim.

3-4 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): RLC Global Forum Annual Meeting, Riyadh.

4 February (Wednesday): Michelin Guide’s Restaurant Celebration, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

5 February (Thursday): Deadline to submit bids for EPC contract for Ras Mohaisen-Baha-Makkah Independent Water Transmission System.

5-7 February (Thursday-Saturday): LIV Golf 2026 season opener, Riyadh Golf Club, Riyadh.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh.

8-9 February (Sunday-Monday): AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (ACEME), Maraya Hall, AlUla.

9-10 February (Monday-Tuesday): Global Games Show Riyadh 2026, Malf Hall, Riyadh.

9-14 February (Monday-Saturday): Asian Racing Conference, Crowne Plaza Riyadh RDC Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

11 February (Wednesday) Digital Transformation Summit Saudi Arabia (DTS), Riyadh.

11-14 February (Wednesday-Saturday): JeddaDerm, Jeddah.

13-14 February (Friday-Saturday): Jeddah E-Prix 2026, Jeddah.

15-17 February (Sunday-Tuesday): The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh Front & Exhibition Center.

16 February (Monday): King Salman Stadium design-and-build contract prequalification submission deadline.

16 February (Monday): First day of Ramadan (TBC).

22 February (Sunday): Founding Day.

26 February (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for 142.8k properties across 104 neighborhoods in Hail.

MARCH

12 March (Thursday): Deadline for real estate registration for 253.2k properties in 499 neighborhoods across Riyadh, Qassim, Makkah, and Hail.

18-23 March (Tuesday-Monday): Eid Al-Fitr holiday (TBC).

21 March (Saturday): Fanatics Flag Football Classic, Kingdom Arena, Riyadh.

31 March (Tuesday): Zatca’s 23rd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

APRIL

6 April (Monday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

6-7 April (Monday-Tuesday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-16 April (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center – Malham.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21 April (Tuesday): GC Summit Saudi Arabia 2026, Saudi Arabia.

22-23 April (Wednesday-Thursday): The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah.

27-29 April (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

MAY

3-5 May (Sunday-Tuesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh.

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

5-6 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh.

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid al-Adha holiday.

JUNE

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production in 2026.
November: UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh.
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.
6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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