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Sama tightens the screws on bank fee income

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Neom’s green hydrogen project is 90% done

Good morning, wonderful people, and a very happy Christmas Eve to all those among you who observe. The traditional news slowdown is still taking hold this morning, with our top story diving deep into Sama’s overhauled fees for banks (and what that means for the much-needed non-interest income growth). We’re also looking into what comes next for the PIF-led USD 55 bn EA buyout after it secured shareholder approval on Monday. Let’s dive in.

Watch this space

ENERGY — Neom’s green hydrogen project is on track: 90% of construction work is done across all sites, Renewables Now reported, citing a statement by the Neom Green Hydrogen Company (NGHC). Completion is tabled for 2026, with initial deliveries of green ammonia to start in early 2027.

The mega plant — located at its floating industrial complex Oxagon — will produce up to 600 tons per day of no-carbon hydrogen in the form of green ammonia. The facility sources its power from up to 4 GW of solar and wind energy.

Work at Oxagon is apparently going forward as planned, unaffected by the ongoingrecalibration of Saudi’s gigaprojects, especially Neom, which has reportedly been undergoing a comprehensive review for a long while.


ECONOMY — The GCC's real GDP is projected to expand by 4.4% in 2026, up from a projected 4% projected this year, buoyed by the non-oil sector, which now accounts for nearly 73.2% of the region's total GDP, according to an Oxford Economics report picked up by Zawya. The figure for this year beat Oxford Economic's expectations as an increase in oil production gave regional economies a boost, alongside momentum in the non-oil sector.

The region’s diversification strategies — from Saudi Arabia to Qatar and the UAE — are showing signs of maturing, making the regional economy more resistant to fluctuations in global crude prices.

Consumers in the region as well are said to be top performers, supported by lower unemployment rates and low inflation rates. Oxford Economics expects the inflation rate in the region to average 1.7% this year before rising to 2% in 2026.

Data point

USD 12.7 bn — the value of private equity and venture capital investments poured into the Middle East by the end of November, according to a report by S&P Global Market Intelligence. The figure beats the full-year total for 2024 by 46%.

Behind the figure: The Gulf’s economic diversification plans to move away from oil have pooled in ample funds from sovereign wealth funds and international private players alike. The region’s largest recorded investment this year was credited to Abu Dhabi with Emirates Global Aluminium’s USD 1.9 bn sale of its Al Taweelah power and water generation assets to Dubal Holding.

It hasn’t been a good year for PE fundraising. Data shows that the aggregate fund size for PE players in the region has fallen to USD 2.9 bn, down from nearly USD 4 bn last year. VC fundraising, however, was up 58.7% by the end of November to USD 2.2 bn.

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The big story abroad

It’s a quiet Christmas Eve morning in the global business press and there are few signs that will radically change as the day wears on: Asian stocks are trading sideways on thin volumes and many Western will close early today before taking tomorrow off entirely.

The US economy grew at a brisk 4.3% clip in the third quarter of the year, backed by consumer spending on healthcare and computing. That’s well ahead of the 3.2% pace at which analysts polled by Bloomberg expected the economy to expand. Investment by businesses slowed and exports fell in the same period.

Oil-price watchers, take note: The US has moved special operations forces into the Caribbean, ratcheting up pressure on Venezuela’s government. Washington is already enforcing a blockade of oil tankers moving into and out of the Latin American country.

CLOSER TO HOME- The Libyan Army’s chief of staff died in a plane crash yesterday evening after flying out of Ankara, where he and three other senior military officers were meeting with Turkish officials. The jet carrying the military leaders asked for permission to make an emergency landing shortly before the crash. There’s been no word on the cause of the incident.

Morning must-read

Longtime readers may remember we’ve frequently suggested in the past that women aren’t truly grownups until sometime around age 28 — and that for guys, it’s age 30 or later? That your prefrontal cortex isn’t fully “baked” until your mid-30s? We might have been onto something: New research suggests the brain’s “adolescent” phase runs from about age 9 through 32 — and that your noggin is then pretty stable until age 66, when early aging begins.

Go read: Your brain ages in five distinct stages in the Wall Street Journal or catch abreakdown from Cambridge University, where the research originated, if you’re not a Journal subscriber.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Michelin Guide Saudi Arabia will hold its first Restaurant Celebration on 4 February 2026 at the Four Seasons Hotel Riyadh. The invite-only event will recognize 52 restaurants from Riyadh, Jeddah, and AlUla featured in the 2026 guide and showcase six Michelin-selected restaurants. Michelin officially launched in the Kingdom this year.

This publication is proudly sponsored by

Easier life with Tasheel
From OUR FAMILY to YOURS
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THE BIG STORY TODAY

Sama tightens the screws on bank fee income

Sama slashes banking, payment fees: The Saudi Central Bank (Sama) is capping administrative fees on consumer loans and slashing charges for digital transfers, a move that threatens a reliable revenue stream for the Kingdom’s lenders just as they were leaning into non-funded income growth.

The gist: The new circular halves the maximum admin fee banks can charge on non-real estate finance — capping it at 0.5% of the loan or SAR 2.5k. International transaction fees are now limited to 2% of the amount, while fees for international cash withdrawals (excluding the GCC Net) are now capped at 3% a maximum limit of SAR 25. Reissuance rates for Mada cards were also slashed.

Why it matters: The "easy money" buffer is shrinking

The tightening comes at a precarious moment, as the banking sector’s bottomline growth in the third quarter was heavily reliant on the very fees Sama just capped. With net interest margins compressing last quarter due to high funding costs, banks pivoted to fee generation to maintain growth.

By the numbers: Non-interest income surged 7.5% q-o-q in 3Q, acting as the primary driver of the moderate 2.6% growth in net income, while core net interest income was virtually unchanged, according to Alvarez & Marsal’s 3Q Banking Pulse report.

Capping admin fees forces banks to look elsewhere for growth. Banks will need to process more loans to make the same fee income. They’ll also need to cut down on waste and optimize the efficiency of operations, as the cost-to-income ratio just became more essential for profitability.

The customer mix will make a difference: Banks with the largest retail customer bases — think Al Rajhi and Saudi National Bank — will be more affected compared to banks focused on corporate clients.

The digital nudge

The new rules nudge holdout customers — and banks — to cut down reliance on physical branches, charging just SAR 0.50 for transactions less than SAR 2.5k, and SAR 1 for transfers between SAR 2.5k and SAR 20k, while leaving a bigger room for charges on physical services.


What’s next? All financial institutions under Sama’s purview have 60 days to apply the new fees.

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M&A WATCH

EA deal is on the regulator’s table — US partners and rapport with Washington could help secure the green light

Shareholders signed off on the Public Investment Fund-led takeover of US gaming giant Electronic Arts on Monday, a move that pundits widely saw coming, given the lucrative premium at USD 210 a share. The USD 55 bn transaction — the largest take-private buyout in history — leaves the boardroom to face a high-stakes review by US regulators, a test case for the limits of Saudi capital in US tech.

Trump’s son-in-law could smooth things over

The deal structure sees the PIF taking a 93.4% controlling interest while Silver Lake and Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners hold the remainder. The presence of US minority partners (particularly Kushner) may be the necessary political capital to get the deal across the line, especially with data privacy for 700 mn users at play.

REMEMBER- Saudi is tight with Trump’s US: We had top level visits and investment conferences this year, with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, President Trump, and high-level delegations of senior government officials and business titans meeting in both Riyadh and Washington. The rapport could help smooth things over when it’s time for the US Committee on Foreign Investment to make its decision on whether to allow or block the deal.

What’s in it for the PIF?

Gaming and esports are a major component of the Kingdom’s diversification agenda. Ampere Analysis ’s Piers Harding-Rolls says the acquisition will accelerate the establishment of a major EA development hub within Saudi Arabia, effectively importing AAA game development capacity faster than organic growth ever could. This should be welcome news for game makers in the PIF’s portfolio, including Savvy Games and its subsidiary Scopely.

The debt component

The buyout loads nearly USD 20 bn in debt onto EA’s balance sheet, a leverage will likely force a "financialization" of the creative giant, Harding-Rolls notes. The immediate priority will shift to aggressive cash flow generation to service the loans

What this means: Expect doubling down on high-margin, recurring-revenue engines like EA Sports FC (Ultimate Team) and Apex Legends, while "rationalizing" high-cost California overhead and killing off speculative, non-core titles.

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ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Al Moammar snags Humain data center contract, STC brings UAE media arm home

Humain awards MIS a SAR 1.9 bn contract for an AI data center

Al Moammar Information Systems (MIS) will design and build an AI-focused data center for Humain under a contract valued at over 155% of its 2024 revenue, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The awarded contract is valued at about SAR 1.9 bn, based on our calculations.

MIS has a few data center projects under its belt: MIS is expanding Saudi Fransi Capital’s data center capacity by 64 MW at a cost of SAR 1.95-2.5 bn, and has signed a framework agreement to add up to 112 MW in capacity to Saudi Data Center Fund 1’s existing facilities.

STC absorbs UAE media arm, brings it home

STC is consolidating media operations, integrating Intigral — the media engine behind STC TV — into its core business and relocating its operations from the UAE to Riyadh, it said in a filing to the bourse yesterday.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

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PLANET FINANCE

Investors rotate into Chinese AI as bubble fears mount on Wall Street

Spooked by bubble risks in US AI, investors are redirecting capital east. Global funds are piling into Chinese AI and tech stocks as concerns grow over stretched valuations and the “circular” financing dynamics underpinning Wall Street’s AI boom, Reuters reports.

**Missed our primer on why investors are spooked about the self-inforcing loop of AI spending in the US — where Big Tech funds AI startups that then pay the same firms for cloud and compute? You can find it here.

China is emerging as the alternative wager: Foreign investors are leaning into Beijing’s push for AI self-reliance, backed by state funding, faster approvals, and domestic supply chains. Capital is flowing into Chinese chipmakers, cloud firms, and platform companies tied to local AI deployment, the newswire said.

Flows are already shifting: Asset managers including Ruffer told Reuters they have capped exposure to the US “Magnificent Seven” while adding Chinese tech. Chinese AI chipmaker MetaX Integrated Circuits, founded by former AMD executives, soared 700% in its Shanghai market debut last week, while larger rival Moore Threads rose 400% on its debut earlier this month.

Valuations add fuel to the rotation: The Nasdaq trades at roughly 31x earnings, compared with about 24x for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index, offering cheaper AI exposure via names such as Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, and SMIC, the newswire noted.

Structural benefits favoring China also form part of the appeal: “Big Short” investor Michael Burry warned the US risks losing the AI race if it continues to rely on Nvidia’s power-hungry chips, arguing China’s far larger and faster-growing electricity generation gives it a structural edge, Business Insider reports. In his view, the AI arms race is being fought on power infrastructure as much as silicon.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Most Asian markets have made marginal gains in early trading this morning, ahead of an early close in light of Christmas Eve. Meanwhile, Wall Street is having a jolly time this holiday season, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high yesterday, though futures are hovering near the flatline.

TASI

10,595

+0.4% (YTD: -12.0%)

MSCI Tadawul 30

1,399

+0.5% (YTD: -7.3%)

NomuC

23,267

0.0% (YTD: -26.1%)

USD : SAR (SAMA)

USD 3.75 Sell

USD 3.75 Buy

Interest rates

4.25% repo

3.75% reverse repo

EGX30

41,419

+0.8% (YTD: +39.3%)

ADX

10,057

+0.2% (YTD: +6.8%)

DFM

6,161

+0.1% (YTD: +19.5%)

S&P 500

6,909

+0.5% (YTD: +17.5%)

FTSE 100

9,889

+0.2% (YTD: +21.0%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,749

+0.1% (YTD: +17.4%)

Brent crude

USD 62.38

+0.5%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 4.44

+0.6%

Gold

USD 4,536.30

+0.7%

BTC

USD 87,593.70

-1.1% (YTD: -6.8%)

Sukuk/bond market index

916

+0.2% (YTD: +1.6%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

151.63

-0.1% (YTD: +8.4%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

14.00

-0.6% (YTD: -20.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI inched up 0.4% yesterday on turnover of SAR 3.4 bn. The index is down 12% YTD.

In the green: Al Masar Al Shamil (+10.0%), Saudi Cable (+10.0%) and Cherry (+4.2%).

In the red: Emaar (-3.6%), Derayah (-2.1%) and Tasheel (-2.0%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC was virtually unchanged yesterday on turnover of SAR 11.7 mn. The index is down 26.1% YTD.

In the green: Mobi (+6.2%), Axelerated Solutions (+5.8%) and Nofoth (+5.6%).

In the red: Mulkia (-10.5%), Altwijri (-7.2%) and Anmat (-5.2%).


DECEMBER

25 December (Thursday): Title title deed registration deadline for 64.4k properties across neighborhoods in Madinah, Makkah, Riyadh, and the Eastern Province.

31 December (Wednesday): Zatca 22nd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

31 December (Wednesday): Cancellation of Fines and Exemption of Financial Penalties Initiative by the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (Zatca) deadline.

2026

JANUARY

1 January (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for 54k properties in 77 neighborhoods across Riyadh, Makkah, and the Eastern Province.

1 January (Thursday): Electronic salary transfer via the Musaned platform becomes mandatory for all domestic workers in the Kingdom.

10-18 January (Saturday-Sunday): Public school mid-year break.

13-15 January (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Minerals Forum, King Abdul Aziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

15 January (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for 31.7k properties in 14 neighborhoods in the Eastern Province.

15 January (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for about 157.3k properties in 78 neighborhoods across the Eastern Province.

15 January (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for about 41.7k properties across 115 neighborhoods in Riyadh, Qassim, and the Eastern Province.

18-21 January (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Hospital Design and Build Expo, Riyadh.

26-27 January (Monday-Tuesday): SuperReturn Saudi Arabia, Hotel Fairmont, Riyadh.

26-27 (Monday-Tuesday): GPRC Summit, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Franchise Expo (SFE), Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): Real Estate Future Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): IFAT Saudi Arabia, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center, Riyadh,

27-28 (Tuesday-Wednesday): SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh.

28 (Wednesday): Data Center Nation Riyadh, Riyadh.

28-30 (Wednesday-Friday): Jeddah International Travel and Tourism Exhibition (JTTX), Jeddah.

FEBRUARY

2-4 (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Media Forum, Riyadh.

2-4 (Monday-Wednesday): Women Leaders Summit and Awards KSA, Riyadh.

2-13 (Monday-Friday): 2026 Asian Road Cycling Championship and Paralympic Cycling, Qassim.

3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday): RLC Global Forum Annual Meeting, Riyadh.

4 (Wednesday): Michelin Guide’s Restaurant Celebration, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

5-7 February (Thursday-Saturday): LIV Golf 2026 season opener, Riyadh Golf Club, Riyadh.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh.

9-10 February (Monday-Tuesday): Global Games Show Riyadh 2026, Malf Hall, Riyadh.

9-14 February (Monday-Saturday): Asian Racing Conference, Crowne Plaza Riyadh RDC Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

11 (Wednesday) Digital Transformation Summit Saudi Arabia (DTS), Riyadh.

11-14 (Wednesday-Saturday): JeddaDerm, Jeddah.

13-14 February (Friday-Saturday): Jeddah E-Prix 2026, Jeddah.

15-17 February (Sunday-Tuesday): The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh Front & Exhibition Center.

16 February (Monday) King Salman Stadium design-and-build contract prequalification submission deadline.

22 February (Sunday): Founding Day.

26 February (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for 142.8k properties across 104 neighborhoods in Hail.

MARCH

12 March (Thursday): Deadline for real estate registration for 253.2k properties in 499 neighborhoods across Riyadh, Qassim, Makkah, and Hail.

17-23 March (Tuesday-Monday): Eid Al-Fitr holiday.

21 March (Saturday): Fanatics Flag Football Classic, Kingdom Arena, Riyadh.

31 March (Tuesday): Zatca’s 23rd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

APRIL

6 April (Monday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

6-7 April (Monday-Tuesday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-16 April (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21 April (Tuesday): GC Summit Saudi Arabia 2026, Saudi Arabia.

27-29 April (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

MAY

3-5 May (Sunday-Tuesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh.

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

24-28 (Sunday-Thursday): Eid al-Adha holiday.

JUNE

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

  • 2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production in 2026.
  • November: UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.
  • November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh.
  • The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.
  • 6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

  • The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.
  • The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.
  • Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

  • The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.
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