Good morning, everyone, and happy THURSDAY. We’re rounding out the week with a much calmer news flow compared to yesterday, although there’s still plenty to keep things interesting. Leading our news well this morning is Modern Mills securing a SAR 871 mn murabaha facility from Saudi National Bank to restructure its debts.

BUT FIRST- King Salman has recovered from lung inflammation, medical tests confirmed, statenews agency (SPA) reports. The story got ink from Bloomberg.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Investment Minister Khalid Al Falih is in Islamabad today, leading a high-level delegation scheduled to discuss cooperation with Pakistani officials across several sectors. The minister and the accompanying delegations are expected to meet with officials from the energy, IT, communications, food security and research, and industries and production sectors, Pakistani news outlet Samaa reports, citing sources it said are in the know. Multiple investment agreements are likely to be finalized after the discussions.

On tomorrow’s agenda: The delegation will meet with Pakistan’s military leadership, and tour the National Aerospace Science and Technology Park.

⚠️WEATHER WARNING- Al Taif, Maysan, Adham, and Al Ardiyat in the Makkah Province, as well as Al Baha, Aseer, and Jazan will see moderate to heavy rainfall, coupled with strong winds and possible hailstorms until Sunday, according to a warning issued by the General Directorate of Civil Defense on X. Meanwhile, the Eastern Region, Madinah, and some areas in Makkah will see light to moderate rainfall.

OVER THE WEEKEND-

The capital city is gearing up for a busy weekend: Riyadh Season is set to kick off with theCrown Showdown, featuring boxing heavyweights Artur Beterbiev and Dmitry Bivol, as well as Shakur Stevenson versus Joe Cordina at the Battle of the Giants this Saturday. The events — which will be held at the Kingdom Arena — have drawn global attention to the ever-growing domestic sports scene.

MEANWHILE- The three-day Global Logistics Forum will host key discussions on the future of global trade, as experts from various sectors gather in Riyadh to give their two cents on critical supply chain issues, including international tensions, economic instability and climate change.

PSA-

Beneficiaries of the Sakani program can now extend their real estate financing repayment for up to 30 years under the Real Estate Development Fund’s new Tamkeen initiative, according to a statement. The move aims to boost beneficiaries’ purchasing power and provide more flexible financing options.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Some 20 Canadian companies expressed their interest in investing in Saudi’s tech and digital sectors, state news agency SPA reported. The identities of the companies, which signaled their interest during a meeting organized by the Federation of Saudi Chambers yesterday, were not disclosed.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Saudi’s trade surplus with the US fell 33.7% y-o-y to SAR 420 mn in August, Mubasher reports, citing US Census Bureau data. The Kingdom’s exports to the USA fell 17.9% to SAR 4.2 bn during the period, while its imports from the US decreased 18.6% to SAR 3.8 bn.

#2- Madinah welcomed 14.1 mn visitors in 2023, up 72% y-o-y, the Al Madinah Region Development Authority said on X. Tourist spending at the holy site surged to more than SAR 49.7 bn during the period while average stays by tourists stood at around 10 days.

SPORTS-

The Metropolitano Stadium is now the Riyadh Air Metropolitano: Atlético Madrid’s Metropolitano Stadium will be renamed Riyadh Air Metropolitano after Saudi Arabia’s second flag carrier Riyadh Air bought the naming rights to the stadium until 2033, according to a press release. The venue has been called Civitas Metropolitano since 2022 under an agreement with the Spanish real estate developer. The LaLiga club will reportedly bag between EUR 250-300 mn from the title sponsorship, according to the Madrid-based outlet Expansión.

OIL WATCH-

Kazakhstan continues to flout Opec+ production limits: Oil production at Tengiz, Kazakhstan’s largest oil field, hit a record 699k bpd this month as production at the site continues to ramp up following the conclusion of maintenance in August, Reuters reports citing sources with knowledge of the matter. The boost in output makes it less likely that Kazakhstan — which was cited by the oil producing cartel along with Iraq and Russia for lack of compliance in a meeting earlier this month — is adhering to Opec+ limits.

And numbers seem to confirm that Kazakhstan cheated in September: Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s production for the previous month exceeded its 1.468 mn bpd limit by some 170k bpd, the newswire said citing its own tally. The country is set to swing back to compliance this month as some oil fields go offline for maintenance, but excess production is expected to resume once more in November as maintenance efforts wrap up.

Are we seeing the last day of Opec+ voluntary cuts? Continued lack of compliance could push Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members to abandon oil cuts altogether, RBC Capital’s Helima Croft had told Reuters earlier this month.

Meanwhile Russian Deputy PM Alexander Novak expressed uncertainty about future market demand, saying it was “too early,” to determine if a plan to wind back some of the cuts and reintroduce 180k bbl / d of production was justified by market conditions, Reuters reported yesterday.

REFRESHER- Opec+ opted to stay the course on its planned production targets at its policy meeting last week, including plans to phase out supply cuts by December. The meeting also saw the Saudi-led cartel say that it was increasing its scrutiny of members that have a patchy compliance record. The group is scheduled to reconvene on Sunday, 1 December to decide whether to hold steady or adjust according to market conditions.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Hurricane Milton in the US and the looming Israeli retaliation on Iran are still getting top billing in the foreign press, as dozens were killed by Israeli airstrikes in an escalation of violence in northern Gaza. Meanwhile, Hurricane Milton is approaching landfall as it makes its way to Florida, though it has dropped to a Category 4 storm. (France24 | Reuters)

US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke yesterday as Biden looks to rein in the latter’s response to Iran’s airstrikes on Israel, and while it was the first phone call in over a month, there were no clear conclusions on next steps. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant promised a “lethal, precise, and surprising” retaliation against Iran, Reuters reports.

The US is trying to propose a milder response, like a fresh round of sanctions against Iran, sources told Bloomberg.

IN THE BUSINESS PRESS- Several stories are getting attention:

• BlackRock is eyeing an acquisition of investment firm HPS Investment Partners, as the latter weighs an IPO, with several others looking into possibly acquiring the firm. (FT | Bloomberg )
• Indian business tycoon and chairman of Tata Group Ratan Tata died yesterday aged 86. He ran one of India’s largest businesses for two decades. (FT | BBC | The Guardian)
• OpenAI wants to restructure as a public benefit corporation to stave off potential hostile takeovers, following in the footsteps of rival AI startups Anthropic and Elon Musk’s xAI. (FT)
• The US Federal Reserve’s minutes from its last policy meeting indicate some divide and caution towards aggressive rate cuts, with several supporting only a quarter-point cut. (Reuters | WSJ)

AND- The latest Nobel prize for chemistry went to US scientists David Baker and John Jumper and British Demis Hassabis for their work decoding the structure of and designing proteins using AI. Hassabis is CEO of Google’s AI research arm DeepMind, where Jumper also works as a senior research scientist. (Reuters | NYT | CNN)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Saudi Winter festivities are back, continuing until the end of March 2025, with over 1k events spread across seven key destinations: Riyadh, Jeddah, AlUla, the Red Sea, Eastern Province, Madinah, and Hail. The events include Riyadh Season, the Dakar Rally, MDL Beast’s music festival, hiking trails, camps, and winter caravans, with special offers available through the Visit Saudi app (Google Play | App Store).

The three-day 6 Kings Slam event at Riyadh’s Venue kicks off on Wednesday, 16 October, featuring all-star players competing for the largest purse in tennis history. The matches will see face offs between tennis champs Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, and Holger Rune (watch, runtime: 5:15). The final and third-place match will be held on Saturday, 19 October. Book your tickets here.

The Professional Fighters League’s (PFL) Battle of the Giants is coming to Riyadh on Saturday, 19 October. Headlining the card, MMA superstar Francis Ngannou will face PFL heavyweight champion Renan Ferreira for the title of inaugural PFL Super Champion. Meanwhile, women’s featherweight champion Cris Cyborg will square off against Larissa Pachecho for the World Title Fight in the co-main event. Expect fireworks with additional matchups featuring Johnny Eblen vs. Fabian Edwards and A.J. McKee vs. Paul Hughes.

The two-day Multilateral Industrial Policy Forum will kick off in Riyadh on Wednesday, 23 October. The forum will address global industrial challenges, focusing on topics like industrial policy, clean energy, and advanced manufacturing tech. The forum is organized by The Industry and Mineral Resources Ministry in partnership with UNIDO. The Kingdom will also host the UNIDO General Conference in 2025.

The four-day Biban24 Forum organized by Monsha’at will run from Tuesday, 5 November to Saturday 9 November in Riyadh. It will feature over 250 speakers and 1.4k exhibitors, focusing on supporting the growth and competitiveness of SMEs, as well as promoting entrepreneurship in the Kingdom. Biban24 will also host the Entrepreneurship World Cup finals, offer 420 workshops, and focus on key sectors like e-commerce and financing.

Cityscape Global will land in Riyadh’s International Convention and Exhibition Center on 11-14 November. With over 400 exhibitors, 500 speakers, and 7 conferences, the real estate event is stretching its scope this year with additional sectors like sustainable smart buildings, stadiums, attractions, and smart cities. Backed by the Municipalities and Housing Ministry, the event will also bring the Saudi sports infrastructure boom to the highlight, including newly-announced stadiums.

The Saudi Intermobility Expo 2024 will kick off on 11-13 November at the Jeddah International Exhibition and Convention Center. The largest transportation exhibition in the MENA region will bring together over 7k decision-makers from more than 30 countries, showcasing the latest trends in smart sustainable mobility, infrastructure, and urban planning.

The Saudi General Aviation Airshow Sand & Fun 2024 will run from Tuesday, 19 November to Saturday 23 at Al Thumamah Airport, Riyadh. Organized by the Saudi Aviation Club, the event will feature 100+ exhibitors and 15 airshow teams, with over 100k visitors expected. Sand & Fun is a key platform for exploring aviation tech, fostering partnerships, and driving industry growth.