Good morning, wonderful people. The new workweek is off to a busy start, with the IMF lowering the Kingdom’s growth projections, a flurry of agreements signed at the recently-concluded Future Minerals Forum, updates on Ma’aden’s third phosphate mega complex, as well as the latest US inflation numbers and what they could mean for rate cuts. Let’s dive in.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

The five-day World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting will kick off tomorrow in Davos, Switzerland. The event will address global challenges, including geopolitical tensions, economic growth, technological advancements, and energy transitions.

Saudi Arabia at the WEF: A Saudi delegation led by Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan will be present at the WEF meeting, with ministers of tourism, investment, finance, economy and planning, industry and mineral resources, and communications and information technology (CIT), according to state news agency SPA. A session titled Saudi Arabia's Economic Shifts will take place on Thursday, where the Saudi ministers of economy, finance, and CIT will take the podium.

The Kingdom will also debut its first standalone Saudi House pavilion, hosting over 15 sessions, including 10 WEF-accredited discussions on trade, logistics, investment, sustainable tourism, and the global economy, SPA reports.

WEATHER- Riyadh will see a high of 21°C and a low of 9°C today, while Jeddah’s mercury will go as high as 30°C before tapering off to 23°C. Makkah’s weather will see a 32°C high and 20°C low.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- PIF-backed Manara Minerals is scanning Zambian minerals projects for potential investments, with a mining agreement likely to happen this year, Zambian Mines and Minerals Development Minister Paul Kabuswe told Reuters. Manara has yet to decide which projects it will invest in, but has clearly expressed interest, Kabuswe added.

REMEMBER- Manara Minerals — a JV between the Public Investment Fund and mining giant Ma’aden — was reportedly in advanced talks with Canada’s First Quantum Minerals for a 15-20% stake in its Zambian copper and nickel mines, before Japanese trading house Mitsui put down USD 2 bn to outbid Manara. The Zambian government is aware of ongoing talks between Manara and First Quantum but is not in on the details, Kabuswe told the news agency on Thursday.

Gulf investors, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are expected to play a pivotal role in Zambia’s push to increase its copper output to some 1 mn tons this year, up from the 720k tons it produced in 2024, Jito Kayumba, special assistant for finance and investment to Zambia’s president, was quoted as saying by Bloomberg.

Manara is doubling down on copper investments: Manara is also in talks for joint investments in copper with Chile’s Codelco, the world’s largest producer of the metal, with an announcement likely to emerge in the coming months, the state-owned company’s Chairman Maximo Pacheco told Reuters on the sidelines of FMF.

ALSO IN THE MINING SECTOR- Saudi Arabia is on the verge of finalizing its investment in Pakistan’s Reko Diq mine in the next few months after an agreement was approved by both sides to bring foreign exchange earnings into Pakistan instead of an overseas account, Pakistani news outlet The News International reports, citing a senior official familiar with the talks.

WE KNEW THIS WAS COMING- Pakistani Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik told Reuters last week that Manara could finalize its investment in Reko Diq within the next two quarters. He also expressed optimism about significant copper-related announcements this year, which may include additional investments by Manara at Reko Diq and nearby mines.

#2- Riyadh Air delays launch to 3Q 2025 amid Boeing delivery setbacks: PIF-owned Riyadh Air opted to push back its launch to 3Q 2025 from early this year after facing delays in its Boeing aircraft order, Bloomberg reports, citing anonymous sources. The delivery delay is expected to see the airline receive as many as four Boeing 787 Dreamliners this year — half of the original delivery.

REMEMBER-Riyadh Air also placed an order of 60 Airbus A321neos in October which are scheduled to arrive between 2H 2026 and 2030. The startup airline is also to place a new wide-body jet order by 1H 2025 to further expand its fleet, eyeing the Boeing 777X and Airbus A350-1000.

Turbulence in the aviation sector: Boeing’s 2024 was marred by delivery delays and general supply chain disruptions which are set to persist well into 2025. Lags in the aviation supply chain are impacting the sector at a global scale amid shortages of spare parts and issues with engine maintenance. Analysts expect the aviation sector’s challenges will persist for years with no quick resolution in sight.

#3- Reins. firms ease restrictions for Middle East policies amid progress on Gaza ceasefire agreement: Reins. firms, including Swiss Re, dropped a restrictive clause that allowed them to cancel Middle East coverage if the war on Gaza were to escalate, Reuters reports, citing industry insiders. Introduced in January 2024, the clause was removed as a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas was recently reached.

What does it mean? The change could be indicative of increased market competition, rather than an improved regional outlook, according to one source. While restrictions remain in high-risk areas like Israel and Yemen, analysts suggest that sustained stability could lead to further relaxation of underwriting policies.

#4- A GCC-UK freetrade agreement (FTA) could be finalized within a week in London, Aleqtisadiah reports citing a UK government spokesman. A delegation from the six GCC states will finalize the FTA, which could add GBP 8.6 bn annually to the trade balance between the UK and the GCC, up 16%, with a focus on technology, AI, and renewable energy.

We knew this was coming: The talks reportedly entered their final stages in November. GCC nations have been working on the draft agreement since 2022, which could be followed by individual trade pacts between the UK and GCC countries.

AND- Saudi and Thai Trade officials talk freetrade: Commerce Minister Majed Al Qasabi and Thai Trade representative Nalinee Thavisi discussed a potential FTA between Thailand and the GCC, according to Thailand’s The Nation. No further details on the meeting were provided.

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We’ve been getting warmer with Bangkok: Thailand’s Board of Investment opened up an office in Riyadh back in July, aiming to bolster trade and investment ties between the two countries.

#5- Automotive oil manufacturer Aqaseem secured approval from the Capital Market Authority for the public offering of debt instruments under a SAR 500 mn program, according to a statement from the authority. A prospectus for the undisclosed offering will be released in due time, the statement read.

#6- Amak to quadruple exploration spending: Tadawul-listed Almasane AlkobraMining (Amak) plans to quadruple its y-o-y exploration spending in 2025, with exploration licenses expanding to 25 this year, up from only two licenses five years ago, CEO Geoffrey MacDonald Day told Argaam.

DATA POINTS-

Aramco maintained its spot as the most profitable company for the third consecutive year on the Fortune Global 500 index. The company recorded the largest earnings of any company in 2024 with USD 120.7 bn, surpassing Apple (USD 97 bn), Berkshire Hathaway (USD 96.2 bn), and Alphabet (USD 73.8 bn).

OIL WATCH-

China and India are looking to the Middle East for oil supplies in Russia’s stead after the US Treasury Department’s recent package of sanctions on Russia from the US, estimated to be the toughest since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, Bloomberg reports. The sanctions were imposed on some 161 Russian oil tankers, with analysts like Macquarie Group estimating that the move could cause a loss of as many as 2.15 mn bbl / d in exports.

The details: Chinese and Indian buyers reportedly asked Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait for more oil, which might prove difficult to provide given their commitments to OPEC+ — where Moscow is a leading force — to keep supply short, writes the business information service. Aramco already turned down requests for February-loading cargos from some Chinese buyers, Reuters reports, citing sources it says are familiar with the matter.

Shipping rates are also on the rise, driven by the sanctions and higher demand for vessels to transport Middle Eastern crude to Asia, Reuters reports. The charter cost of a supertanker from the Middle East to China rose 15% to reach USD 4.1 mn, with tankers on other routes seeing similar hikes, shipbrokers told the news agency.

SPORTS-

#1- Fox Sports lands LIV Golf broadcasting rights: US broadcaster Fox Sports will start broadcasting LIV Golf events under a multi-year contract, according to a statement from LIV Golf. Upwards of half of the league’s schedule will be aired on FOX or the FS1 network under the agreement, with select events set to air on FS2, FOX Business Network, and the FOX Sports App. The value of the agreement was not disclosed. The story got ink from Bloomberg and the Associated Press.

#2- Rory McIlroy praises new LIV Golf CEO: PGA Tour star Rory McIlroy sang the praises of LIV Golf’s new CEO Scott O’Neil, who assumed the position on Wednesday to replace the outgoing Greg Norman, with whom McIlroy had a public spat during his tenure at the helm of the PIF-backed circuit, Reuters reports. O’Neil previously served as CEO of the parent company of the NBA's Philadelphia 76ers and NHL's New Jersey Devils, as well as the president of Madison Square Garden.

#3- Yazeed Al Rajhi became the first Saudi to take the Dakar Rally title, outpacing his closest competitor, South Africa's Henk Lategan, by almost four minutes, Reuters reports. The Associated Press also had the story.

#4- FROM THE RUMOR MILL- Massimiliano Allegri set to replace Matthias Jaissle as Al Ahli coach: Massimiliano Allegri, who was fired by Juventus last season due to an outburst towards the referees in the Coppa Italia final, is reportedly in the running to take over Al Ahli’s helm from Matthias Jaissle, Goal.com reports. Al Ahli currently is placed in the 5th spot at the Saudi Pro League.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s a busy day in global news, with an approaching ceasefire in Gaza set to begin in just over a couple of hours, the commentariat in a frenzy ahead of Trump being inaugurated as the 47th president tomorrow, and TikTok’s US operations potentially getting thrown a lifeline by the incoming administration all battling for digital ink.

Our corner of the world is for the first time in a while leading with positive news, with a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel set to begin at 8:30am Cairo time after 15 months of a brutal assault on Gaza that has killed tens of thousands — of which the UN estimates 70% to be women and children. The Egypt, Qatar, and US-brokered agreement from today sets out a six week period that will see an end to the assault, the entry of much needed aid, and the release of 33 Israeli and 2k Palestinian hostages, followed by more released throughout the period, before the more fragile second and third phases seeking to put an end to the war for good begins. (Reuters | New York Times | Wall Street Journal | Bloomberg

But the likes of Netanyahu and other warhawks seem to already be laying the groundwork for a potential return to the war, with the Israeli prime minister saying in a televised statement just hours ahead of the ceasefire that the country’s “campaign is not over” and that he has both Biden and Trump’s backing to restart its assault on Gaza “if the second stage [of the ceasefire] is fruitless. (Guardian)

While over in business news, Trump signaled he may grant TikTok a 90-day extension to avoid a nationwide ban set for today, citing the need for a “political resolution.” The Supreme Court upheld the ban as recently as Friday over national security concerns, giving the ByteDance-owned company the choice of divesting from its parent company or closing down its US operations. (Financial Times | Reuters | Associated Press | Washington Post)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

#1- The three-day Real Estate Future Forum kicks off on 27 January at the Four Seasons, Riyadh.

#2- The UFC returns to the Kingdom on 1 February, kicking off its 2025 collaboration with Riyadh Season, according to Forbes. The main event will see former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya face Nassourdine Imavov. The co-main event will see Shara Magomedov square off with Michael “Venom” Page. The card also includes several ranked fighters, with matchups spanning multiple divisions.

#3- LEAP 2025 will take place between 9-12 February at the Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center in Malham. The tech event will bring together over 1.8k global tech brands, 1k experts and some 680 startups. LEAP 2025 will feature over 300 hours of content across 17 tracks, covering AI, fintech, edtech, smart cities, and more. Co-located with LEAP is DeepFest, a major AI-focused event bringing thought leaders and innovators under one roof.

#4- The eight-day Big 5 Construct Saudi will take place from 15-18 February and 24-27 February at the Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center. The Kingdom’s largest construction event will feature over 2k exhibitors from more than 60 countries, showcasing innovations across the sector. The event is expected to attract over 75k participants.