Good morning. The Kingdom is easing into the expected business slowdown as we approach the ten-day mark of Ramadan. It’s not the same on the political landscape, however, as we gear up for mediating high-profile talks between the US and Ukraine this week that could see an end to the years-long conflict with Russia.
In this morning’s news well: Gastat is out with latest estimates on GDP growth in 2024, while Capital Economics weigh in on Opec+ raising production levels in April, and whether Saudi Arabia will stick to the plans amid falling oil prices. We also delve into the latest data on the contracting sector’s performance in February. Let’s dive in.
When do we eat? Maghrib is at 6:00pm today in Riyadh. You’ll have until fajr prayers at 4:48am tomorrow to wrap up sohour.
HAPPENING TODAY-
Shares of Derayah Financial will begin trading today on Tadawul’s main market, according to a statement from the exchange. Shares can fluctuate within a ±30% range for the first three days, after which price fluctuations will be capped at ±10% as circuit breakers take effect.
REFRESHER- The first brokerage firm to hit the market priced its offering of a 20% stake (good for 49.95 mn shares) at SAR 30 apiece, after its institutional book was 162x oversubscribed. The pricing gives Derayah a market cap of SAR 7.49 bn, with proceeds from the sale earmarked to the selling shareholders after deducting some SAR 51 mn to cover IPO-related expenses.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrives in Saudi Arabia today to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. The meeting precedes talks between top US and Ukrainian officials in Riyadh tomorrow, which Zelensky will be skipping.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is also due to land in Jeddah today to join the US-Ukrainian talks, and to meet separately with the Crown Prince to advance US-Saudi relations, according to a statement from the US State Department. Rubio is planned to stay in Riyadh until Wednesday.
IN CONTEXT- The talks follow last week's heated exchange in the Oval Office between Zelensky and US President Donald Trump, which resulted in the White House abruptly suspending military assistance and intelligence sharing with Kyiv. The US administration has been pushing hard for a ceasefire lately, to deliver on one of Trump’s key campaign promises.
WEATHER- Stormy skies still hover over Riyadh, while Makkah and Madinah can expect windy weather today.
- Riyadh: 23°C daytime / 14°C overnight
- Makkah: 31°C daytime / 19°C overnight
- Madinah: 28°C daytime / 14°C overnight
PSAs-
#1- FINAL CALL- Businesses subject to withholding tax must file their February tax returns by end-of-day today through the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority’s (Zatca) website. Missing the deadline will result in penalties of 1% of the unpaid tax for every 30 days of delay.
#2- The procedural guide for off-plan real estate sales and leasing is up for public consultation on Istitlaa until 8 April. The guide — prepared by the Real Estate General Authority (Rega) — outlines licensing procedures, developer requirements, and regulatory obligations for off-plan projects. You can check out Rega’s simplified guide here (pdf).
WATCH THIS SPACE-
Coffee chain operator Ratio Specialty’s shares rose 15.2% on its Nomu debut yesterday to close at SAR 11.52 apiece, up from its final IPO price of SAR 10.00. The Al Ahsa-based company took a 25% stake to the parallel market, raising SAR 200 mn in proceeds in a secondary share sale that was 8.6x oversubscribed.
Ratio’s shares can fluctuate within a ±30% range for the first three days, after which price fluctuations will be capped at ±10% as circuit breakers take effect.
DATA POINTS-
#1- Saudi women currently hold 28% of leadership positions in the local digital economy, the Communications and Information Technology Ministry said in a post on X. Women make up 52% of the digital economy workforce.
#2- Hospitality licenses in Makkah jumped 80% y-o-y to over 1k in 2024, up from around 570 in the previous year, the Tourism Ministry said in a post on X.
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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-
It’s a quiet Monday morning in the global press, with no single story dominating the headlines. Among those worth noting:
#1- Ceasefire talks to bear fruit? A US envoy believes Hamas and Israel could reach a new ceasefire agreement within weeks. “I will say that I believe there is enough there to make a deal between what Hamas wants and what they’ve accepted and what Israel wants and it’s accepted,” envoy for hostages Adam Boehler told CNN’s State of the Union yesterday after holding talks with Hamas representatives. The new ceasefire agreement will see Hamas release the remaining 59 Israeli hostages.
IN CONTEXT- The news comes following Israel cutting electricity supplies to Gaza, which comes only days after Israel started blocking the entry of all humanitarian aid into Gaza in an effort to pressure Hamas into accepting amendments to the truce agreement. (Bloomberg | BBC | AP)
#2- Canada selects new prime minister: Former Governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney was elected to succeed Justin Trudeau as prime minister by the country’s Liberal Party. Carney will take office amid tensions with the US under President Donald Trump, who has recently slapped new trade restrictions on Canadian exports. (Reuters | AP | The Guardian | CNN)

