Real estate prices on the rise

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: General Atlantic is setting up shop in Saudi

Good morning, and welcome to an uncharacteristically busy Monday. The big story here at home is the upcoming start of trading on Bank Albilad’s CSOP MSCI Hong Kong China ETF, which is set to be the Kingdom’s largest ETF to track Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks.

^^ We have chapter and verse on this story and others in this morning’s news well, below.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The two-day Global PropTech summit at the Mövenpick Hotel in Riyadh wraps up today. The event features over 100 speakers from 80 countries, with industry leaders and investors sharing their insights on the challenges, and prospects for prop-tech and digital transformation in the sector. The conference is hosted by the Real Estate General Authority.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

The Future Investment Initiative Conference kicks off in the capital city tomorrow, and runs until Thursday, 31 October. The conference — led by Public Investment Fund Governor Yasir Al Rumayyan — is expected to draw in top brass from the global finance stage, including Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, BlackRok CEO Larry Fink, Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser, and London Stock Exchange Julia Hoggett, according to Reuters.

WEATHER- Riyadh is looking at a high of 27°C and a low of 23°C today. Over in Jeddah, the temperature will peak at 38°C before dropping to 28°C. Meanwhile, Madinah will see a high of 38°C and a low of 26°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- PE firm General Atlantic is setting up shop here: General Atlantic is launching its first office in Saudi Arabia to deepen its presence and pursue potential investments in the region, Bloomberg reports. General Atlantic aims for the office to “build on the momentum of a growing entrepreneurial ecosystem and help build the next generation of market leading companies from the Middle East,” chief executive officer Bill Ford told the business information service. The firm has deployed USD 1 bn in the Middle East, North Africa, and Turkey since 2012.

Leading the KSA office: The firm tapped Ziyad Baeshen to lead the new office, with a focus on building relationships with local entrepreneurs and investing in high-growth companies across technology, healthcare, financial services, consumer markets, and climate industries.

#2- Almajed Oud plans to launch a fully owned subsidiary in Qatar, with SAR 50k in capital, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The perfume maker’s IPO retail offering in September was 8.2x oversubscribed, drawing in SAR 1.2 bn in demand for 20% of the shares on offer at SAR 94 apiece.

#3- A new consultancy in town: sustainability and social impact-focused consultancy Sada Impact has launched operations in the Kingdom, offering services including strategic advisory, workshops focused on corporate purpose, female leadership, and social impact for startups, according to an emailed statement (pdf) to EnterpriseAM Saudi.

#4- Saudi-based Gulf Electricity Interconnection Authority plans to invest over USD 1 bn in developing the power grid connecting GCC countries over the next five years, reports Mubasher quotes authority CEO Ahmed Al Ibrahim as saying. The authority previously invested around USD 1 bn to expand connections with Kuwait, the UAE, and Oman, according to Al Ibrahim. The interconnection with Kuwait will be completed by year-end, while projects with the UAE and Oman will start early next year, and will run for two to three years, he added. Meanwhile, the interconnection project with Iraq is 70% complete, with expectations for it to be operational next year.

#5- Tune in to SDAIA’s AI podcast: The Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority (SDAIA) launched the Gain Podcast to raise awareness in artificial intelligence and data, featuring industry experts, in a 14-episode series, it said in an emailed statement (pdf) to EnterpriseAM. You can watch the podcast on the profile of Global AI Summit on X.

#6- Aleph has expanded its partnership with Reddit to Saudi, the UAE and Egypt in a bid to support local advertisers and agencies in the region, it said in a statement (pdf). The extended partnership will see Aleph assist Reddit in expanding its digital advertising ecosystem to MENA, following successful rollouts in Central Europe and Asia-Pacific.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Election news, escalations between Iran and Israel, and chatter around a potential ceasefire in Gaza continue to push business news further to the bottom of the foreign press’ front pages.

Japan’s ruling coalition lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since 2009 in snap elections yesterday, according to public broadcaster NHK’s projections, casting the country into political uncertainty. While the Liberal Democratic Party lost seats, Japan’s largest opposition party — the Constitutional Democratic Party — made big gains.

Market analysts are expecting the JPY and the Nikkei to suffer from an expected uncertainty in the legislative process of the country, Semafor said. The JPY has already weakened to its lowest level in almost three months following the news, Bloomberg reports. The Nikkei, however, has yet to show signs of faltering, rising 1% in early trade this morning, while the Topix is also up.

Israeli and Iranian officials are making their thoughts known on the impact of Israel’s strikes on Iran on Saturday, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claiming the attack “severely [harmed] its defense capabilities and its ability to produce missiles that would be launched at us,” after Israeli officials initially kept quiet on the details of the strike, Bloomberg reports. Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, on the other hand, said the strike must “neither be downplayed nor exaggerated,” BBC reported.

What about that ceasefire in Gaza? President Abdel Fattah El Sisi said (watch, runtime: 21:55) yesterday that Egypt has proposed an initial two-day ceasefire in Gaza to exchange Israeli detainees of Hamas for Palestinian prisoners. The temporary ceasefire would then see permanent ceasefire talks resume within 10 days, El Sisi added.

It’s unclear if Israel and Hamas are on board: Unnamed sources told Al Arabiya that both sides signaled they will commit to the new accord, though Israeli reports claim Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still set on continuing his nation’s invasion and strikes on northern Gaza during ceasefire negotiations, going against one of Hamas’ key conditions.

The situation on the ground remains dire: El Sisi’s announcement came as Israeli strikes killed 75 Palestinians across Gaza, with the UN describing the situation in northern Gaza as “unbearable.”

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The five-day Jeddah International Motor Show revs up tomorrow, running through Saturday, 2 November. The event will showcase motorcycle and drift shows, sim and kart racing, a lineup of custom-tuned cars, and more.

WWE Raw is coming to Riyadh for the first time ever on 2-3 November, kicking off on the back of the WWE Crown Jewel event the day prior, Turki Alalshikh said in a post on X. You can book your Raw tickets here, and your Crown Jewel tickets here.

The two-day Road Safety and Sustainability Conference and Exhibition will open its doors on Sunday, 3 November, bringing global experts together to discuss technological advancements, AI applications, and sustainability in the transport sector.

The Saudi RailConference and Exhibition will take place on 20-21 November at the Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center. The event will showcase developments in the railway sector and provide insights from over 150 local and international speakers.

Bank Albilad to debut Saudi’s largest ETF tracking Hong Kong stocks

Bank Albilad’s CSOP MSCI Hong Kong China ETF is set to start trading on Tadawul this Wednesday, according to Bloomberg and the South China Morning Post. The ETF is going to Saudi Arabia’s largest ETF to track Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks. The fund will be launched in partnership with Hong Kong-based CSOP Asset Management.The lender last week raised USD 1.3 bn for the fund through its securities arm, USD 800 mn higher than what pundits had expected.

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REMEMBER: CSOP’s Saudi Arabia exchange-traded fund (2830.HK on Reuters) — the first ETF in Asia tracking Saudi equities — debuted in Hong Kong last year, and is now trading 5.2% higher than on its first trading day at HKD 81.6.

Facilitating access to Chinese stocks: The ETF aims to provide Saudi investors easier access to Chinese equities in local currency, allowing investments starting at SAR 10 in a fund that includes the 30 largest Sharia-compliant companies listed in Hong Kong.

What CSOP said: “This strategy worked well as the Saudi ETF listing in Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen have been very successful, which helps establish trust among the regulators,” said Ding Chen, CEO of CSOP Asset Management.

Breaking it down: The ETF will invest in Chinese equities through the Hong Kong-domiciled CSOP MSCI HK China Connect Select ETF, which counts e-commerce firm Meituan and sportswear maker Anta Sports Products among its biggest holdings, but excludes companies like HSBC and Alibaba to maintain Sharia compliance. The feeder fund has fully built positions via the master fund.

Another HK-focused ETF coming soon? Another ETF tracking Hong Kong stocks is set for launch before year-end by Saudi Awwal Bank’s SAB Invest which lined up Capital Market Authority (CMA) approval to offer its Hang Seng Hong Kong ETF on Tadawul.

Real estate prices rise across most categories in 3Q 2024

The real estate price index rose 2.6% y-o-y in 3Q 2024, driven by rising costs of residential real estate and commercial units, according to the latest General Authority for Statistics (Gastat) real estate index (pdf).

The culprit? The uptick owes to a 1.6% hike in residential real estate prices, while prices increased 1.9% y-o-y for apartments, and 1.5% for villas.

Bucking the trend: Prices of residential floors saw a decrease of 1.8%, and a 6.4% in commercial unit prices. There was also a 8.7% decline in the prices of agricultural real estate.

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REMEMBER- Rent has been cited as a major culprit driving consumer inflation in the Kingdom, with house rental prices — the heaviest weighted component in the domestic consumer basket — rising 11.2% y-o-y in September, fueled by a 10% surge in apartment rentals. This led to a 9.3% y-o-y increase in the prices of housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels.

On a quarterly basis: The real estate price index inched up 0.8% in 3Q, compared to the previous quarter, driven by a 0.2% increase in the prices of the residential sector, a 0.4% rise in villa prices, and a 1.8% increase in the prices of floors. Commercial real estate prices were also up 3%, driven by a 3.2% increase in commercial land plot prices, a 0.4% increase in building prices, and a 2.4% increase in gallery/shop prices. Meanwhile, agricultural prices fell 7.7% q-o-q in 3Q.

City Cement to acquire Umm Al-Qura Cement in SAR 1.1 bn share swap

City Cement (CCC) inked an acquisition implementation agreement to acquire 100% of Umm Al-Qura Cement (UACC) via a share swap, offering UACC shareholders 1.11 new CCC shares per UACC share, and valuing UACC at SAR 1.1 bn, the companies said in two separate disclosures to Tadawul here (pdf) and here (pdf).

This is an all-share transaction: In exchange for acquiring all 55 mn of UACC’s shares, CCC will issue 61.2 mn new ordinary shares to UACC shareholders, boosting its capital 43.7% to SAR 2.0 bn. CCC will disclose further details pertaining to the capital increase in a circular to shareholders after obtaining regulatory approval for the move.

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Post-merger structure: UACC shareholders will hold a combined 30.4% of CCC after the transaction goes through, while Al Abdullatif Holding Group — a related party — will retain a 19.7% stake, maintaining its position as CCC’s only major shareholder. Al Abdullatif Holding currently owns 24.5% of CCC and 8.7% of UACC.

ADVISORS- CCC tapped Al Rajhi Capital as its financial advisor and Abdulaziz bin Hamad Al Fahad and Partners as counsel. Meanwhile, UACC appointed BSF Capital as financial advisor and SuhailPartners LLP as counsel on the transaction.

IN OTHER M&A NEWS-

WSM for Information Technology inked a non-binding 12-month MoU to acquire 100% of Wasl Technology Information Systems, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. WSM will pursue regulatory approvals and complete negotiations for the final agreement during the MoU’s one-year term. The transaction’s value will be determined through financial evaluation and due diligence. The transaction will be funded by WSM’s own resources. Value Capital Company was appointed by WSM as its financial advisor for the transaction.

Bawan inks SPA to fully acquire Petronash Global

Building materials manufacturer Bawan inked a sale and purchase agreement (SPA) with Petronash Global to acquire Petronash Holding’s full stake, with the agreement valuing Petronash at USD 175 mn, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The move comes on the heels of the binding MoU inked by the pair in September. The SPA was initially set to be signed in late September, but had its date pushed forward due to procedural delays.

Terms of the sale: Bawan will initially purchase 80% of Petronash’s shares for USD 80 mn, with a follow-on payment of up to USD 60 mn. Petronash will need to meet three-year financial targets in order to unlock the follow-on payment. Bawan will acquire the remaining balance of Petronash’s shares after the company publishes its 2027 and 2028 financials for an amount that will be determined through an “agreed valuation method and specified mechanism,” reads the disclosure. Petronash reported SAR 69 mn in net income and SAR 699 revenues in 9M 2024, according to unaudited earnings cited in the disclosure.

How will Bawan foot the bill? The company will leverage its internal freecash flows as well as bank facilities to finance the transaction.

Petronash’s post-acquisition leadership structure: Petronash’s founder will remain as company chairman for three years following the signing of the SPA, alongside his senior executive management team, according to the previously signed MoU.

About Petronash: Established in 2000 in the UAE, the company specializes in manufacturing engineered packaged solutions for players in the oil and gas sector, boasting a total manufacturing area of 120k sqm spread across factories in the Kingdom, the UAE, Qatar, and India. Petronash’s main market is in the GCC, but it also exports its products to Africa, the Far East, and the Americas.

ADVISORS- Bawan tapped PwC as its financial advisor on the transaction, with Khoshaim and Associates providing legal counsel and Rystad Energy acting as commercial advisor. Meanwhile Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer and Piper Sandler are advising Petronash on the transaction.

Aramco-backed VC fund Wa’ed Ventures earmarks USD 100 mn for investing in AI startups

Aramco’s Wa’ed Ventures earmarked USD 100 mn for AI startup investments and appointed an advisory board of ex-Meta and Amazon employees to weigh on early-stage investments in the sector, Bloomberg reports, citing a statement from Wa’ed. The investments come as policymakers here push state institutions and the private sector alike to invest more in AI, data centers, and chipmaking.

The funds are slated for deployment over the next three years. “This investment will not only incentivize local entrepreneurs but also support the localization of global talent,” said Wa’ed’s acting CEO Anas Al Gahtani.

Aramco ♥️ AI: The USD 500 mn VC fund made its first direct investments in the US and South Korea, writing tickets to both South Korean chipmaker Rebellions and California-based AI software platform company aiXplain in July. Wa’ed Ventures has also recently invested USD 14 mn Series A funding round in Dubai-based proptech startup Stake, and contributed to robo-advisory Abyan Capital’s series A round in May.

IN OTHER STARTUP NEWS-

Homegrown agri-tech startup Nabt raised SAR 5.6 mn in a seed funding round led by Merak Capital, with contributions from unnamed angel investors, according to a press release. The fresh funds will enable Nabt to fast-track product development and broaden its market presence. Nabt aims to transform the fresh produce supply chain by directly connecting farmers with businesses through a B2B marketplace. Information about the structure of the investment, and the size of the stake the investors get in return wasn’t disclosed.

Fresh regs for commercial office requirements

New licensing regulations for commercial office spaces: The Municipalities and Housing Ministry is seeking feedback on new requirements for office licensing (pdf) that outline standards for safety, appearance, and design. The draft regulations will be up for public consultation on Istitlaa until 11 November.

Licensing procedures: All processes related to issuing, canceling, renewing, amending, and suspending licenses must follow the Municipal Licensing Procedures System and its executive regulations. Before any licenses are issued, approval from the Civil Defense Authority must be obtained, and applicants must provide a valid commercial register detailing the activities for which the license is sought. Businesses operating within incubators must secure approval from the General Authority for Small and Medium Enterprises (Monsha’aat).

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Building code compliance: Offices must comply with the Saudi Building Code, including its construction, electrical, mechanical, health, accessibility, and energy conservation requirements. All design work must be approved by engineering offices and contractors authorized by the Ministry.

Operational standards: The draft regulations specify standards for location, area, architectural design, safety measures, and employee conduct, including adherence to hygiene, professional appearance, and smoking guidelines.

Earnings season continues at full swing, with 3Q results from Al Rajhi Bank, Mobily, and others

AL RAJHI BANK-

Al Rajhi Bank’s net income was up 22.8% y-o-y at SAR 5.1 bn in 3Q 2024 as increases in total operating income offset increases in total operating expenses, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The lender’s total income from financing grew 19.4% y-o-y to SAR 10.3 bn, while total income from investment jumped 37.7% to SAR 1.9 bn over the same period.

On a 9M basis: Al Rajhi’s bottom line grew 14.1% y-o-y to SAR 14.2 bn during the first nine months of the year, marking the lender’s bst 9M performance since its establishment, according to a statement. Total income from financing was up 19.3% y-o-y at SAR 29 bn, while total income from investment was up 39.4% to SAR 5.2 bn.

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BANK ALJAZIRA-

Bank Aljazira’s net income was up 20.5% y-o-y at SAR 332.7 mn in 3Q 2024 on the back of an increase in total operating income that offset increases in total operating expenses, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The lender’s total income from financing grew 22.2% y-o-y during the period to SAR 1.5 bn, while total income from investment increased 25% y-o-y to SAR 539.1 mn.

On a 9M basis: Aljazira’s bottom line grew 28.4% y-o-y to SAR 950.7 mn during the first nine months of the year. Meanwhile, total income from financing was up 29.7% y-o-y to SAR 4.27 bn, while total income from investment was up 27.9% y-o-y to SAR 1.55 bn.

SAVOLA-

Foods giant Savola Group’s net income increased 22.8% y-o-y at SAR 181 mn in 3Q 2024, despite revenues falling 4.6% to SAR 6.1 bn during the quarter, according to a disclosure to Tadawul.

Details: The company attributed the improved bottom line to a considerable increase in net income from its retail segment which increased more than twofold y-o-y to SAR 57.3 mn on the back of a “favorable impact of Customer Experience Revival (CXR) program and overall enhanced operations,” the disclosure read. Greater shares in gains from associates, lower finance and zakat costs, and a one one-off gain due to a SAR 19.4 mn custom duty refund also contributed to the boost. At the same time revenues declined due to a fall in crude edible oil commodity prices and lower sales volumes that affected the food processing segment.

On a 9M basis:Savola Group saw its net income inch down 1% y-o-y to SAR 665.1 mn during the first nine months of the year, while revenues were down 5.1% to SAR 19.2 bn over the same period due to a decline in the food processing segment’s performance.

MOBILY-

Etihad Etisalat (Mobily)’s net income increased 58.2% y-o-y at SAR 829 mn in 3Q 2024 driven by higher revenues and a SAR 140 mn withholding tax reversal, among other factors, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Revenues were up 9.2% y-o-y to SAR 4.5 bn over the same period, with growth in all revenue streams and an increase in mobile subscribers to 11.7 mn, according to its earnings release (pdf).

On a 9M basis: The telecommunications giant saw its net income increase 43.1% y-o-y to SAR 2.13 bn in the first nine months of the year. Revenues grew 8.4% y-o-y to SAR 13.5 bn during the same period on the back of growth across all revenue streams, particularly the business segment.

SABIC AGRI-NUTRIENTS-

Sabic Agri-Nutrients’ net income dropped 21.2% y-o-y to SAR 827 mn in 3Q 2024 on the back of higher costs of goods sold that was partially offset by higher revenues, it said in an earnings release (pdf). Revenues were up 6.7% y-o-y to SAR 2.85 bn due to an increase in sales prices and volumes.

On a 9M basis: Sabic AN saw its net income drop 11.5% y-o-y at SAR 2.4 bn in the first nine months of the year due to lower average selling prices and higher cost of goods sold, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The company’s revenues saw a slight 0.2% decrease at SAR 8 bn.

Rounding the bend? The company’s market outlook improved from earlier in the year, when disruptions and seasonal falls in demand affected performance. China’s curtailing of urea exports and big orders from India supported prices for urea, but global demand was otherwise sluggish, the company said. Fourth quarter performance is also susceptible to disruptions due to winter energy costs, shortages in feedstock supplies, and unscheduled maintenance, and is largely dependent on year-end orders from India.

SOLUTIONS-

Arabian Internet and Communications Services Company (solutions) saw its net income increase 19.6% y-o-y to SAR 463 mn in 3Q 2024, despite its top line inching down 1.5% y-o-y to SAR 2.8 bn over the same period, according to a disclosure to Tadawul.

The details: The company attributed its improved bottom line to a SAR 113 mn decrease in operating expenses and a SAR 86 mn decrease in zakat and tax charges that offset falling revenues. Meanwhile, the downtick in revenues was attributed to decreased performance in the company’s Core ICT and IT Managed and Operational Services.

On a 9M basis:The Stc subsidiary saw its net income increase 23.3% y-o-y to SAR 1.27 bn in the first nine months of the year. Revenues were up 2% y-o-y at SAR 8.3 bn over the same period.

EMAAR THE ECONOMIC CITY-

Emaar The Economic City (EEC) registered a SAR 459 mn loss in 3Q 2024, on the back of lower revenues, higher operational expenses and finance costs, losses attributed to companies in which EEC holds shares, and other factors, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Revenues dropped 73.3% y-o-y to SAR 91 mn over the same period due to delayed contract signings and a slowdown in the hospitality segment. The fall in revenues is also attributed to an unfavorable base effect due to SAR 263 mn in one off gains recorded in 3Q 2023 from a periodic reassessment of life cycle cost estimates for residential and industrial projects.

On a 9M basis:EEC saw its net losses widen to SAR 1.15 bn during the first nine months of the year. Losses were driven by declining revenues, higher operational expenses and finance costs, as well as a SAR 69 mn in losses attributed to companies where EEC holds shares. Revenues were down 74% y-o-y at SAR 241 mn over the same period.

YANSAB-

Yanbu National Petrochemical (Yansab) is back in the black with a net income of SAR 130.6 mn in 3Q 2024, rebounding from a SAR 161.3 mn loss seen during the same period last year, the company said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The improved performance was driven by upticks in sales prices, production, and sales volumes while also being attributed to a positive base effect associated with plant shutdowns during the same quarter last year. Meanwhile, revenues rose 48.3% y-o-y at SAR 1.63 bn.

On a 9M basis:Yansab noted a net income of SAR 454.9 mn in the first nine months of the year, up from a SAR 503.6 mn loss observed during the same period last year. Revenues increased 51.4% to SAR 4.7 bn over the same period.

Tadweer taps Net-Zero for carbon credit issuance

CLIMATE-

Tadweer plans to issue carbon credits: Nomu-listed National Environmental Recycling Company (Tadweer) tapped Net-Zero Company (Coz) to help it meet the necessary requirements to qualify for issuing carbon credits, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. No further information was disclosed.

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LOCALIZATION-

Fresh agreements to localize wind energy steel towers: The Local Content and Government Procurement Authority signed agreements with Al Yamamah Steel Industries and the Arabian International Company for Steel Structure to localize the manufacturing of steel wind turbine towers, according to a statement. The investment ticket of the agreements was not disclosed.

TRADE-

Saudi Exim partners with three lenders to boost non-oil exports: The Saudi Export-Import Bank (Saudi Exim) signed MoUs with the Africa Finance Corporation, IDB Invest, and the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean to facilitate access of Saudi non-oil exports to global markets, according to a press release.

What they said: The agreements are aimed at “developing Saudi non-oil exports and improving their competitiveness in various global markets, thereby creating new [prospects] for local exporters to access diverse markets,” Saudi Exim’s CEO Saad bin Abdulaziz Al-Khalb said.

LOGISTICS-

Mawani adds new shipping service to Jeddah Islamic Port: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) added Akkon Lines’ FES shipping service to Jeddah Islamic Port, it said in a statement. The new service, which has a 3k standard container capacity, will connect the Jeddah port with the ports of Ambarli, Gebze, Gemlik, Izmir, and Iskenderun in Turkey, as well as Qingdao, Taicang, Ningbo, and Nansha in China.

AVIATION-

The General Authority of Civil Aviation signed 15 agreements and MoUs with several countries to boost cooperation in the aviation sector and expand the Kingdom’s connectivity network, according to a press release. Countries involved in the agreements included Uzbekistan, Suriname, Belarus, Cuba, Turkey, Liberia, Brunei Darussalam, Mongolia, Guinea, South Africa, and Latvia.

RETAIL-

Local fintech outfit Resal will provide Brands for Less customers with access to gift cards which can be used online and in-store to shop at the off-price retailer, according to a press release.

FINTECH-

Visa has inaugurated a new Innovation Center and office in the King Abdullah Financial District in Riyadh, according to a press release. The new facility is designed to support Visa's digital payment solutions, and assist local fintech companies and government entities.

Corporate market on thin ice: Record trade masks looming risks

The US corporate bond market wrapped up its busiest month on record in September with an average daily volume exceeding USD 43 bn, but cracks could be forming under the surface, the IMF warned last week in its Global Financial Sustainability Report. Although trading activity surged, narrow credit spreads are raising concerns about a sudden repricing of bonds if markets face turbulence, Bloomberg reports.

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A downturn could hit when it’s least expected: While current liquidity appears strong, the IMF cautioned that smooth trading conditions often vanish in times of stress. A sudden market shock — such as volatility surrounding the upcoming US presidential election — could trigger a rapid deterioration. “It just looks like a disaster in the making,” said Global Head of Investment Grade Debt at Goldman Sachs Group Jonny Fine.

The rise of e-trading is helping: Platforms like MarketAxess and Tradeweb have supported liquidity, with 50% of high-grade bonds now traded online. Portfolio trading, where large blocks of bonds are exchanged in a single transaction, has also become a key driver, making up 25% of dealer-client trades last month, up from near-zero in 2018.

Risks remain, despite record numbers: While the US Federal Reserve’s policy outlook supports the market, analysts warn that complacency could backfire. “My concern is the kind of self-fulfilling prophecy of everybody thinking liquidity is good and getting better,” the business information service quotes head of fixed income sales and trading at US Bank Blair Shwedo as saying. “Does that lead us to a point where, because everybody’s under the assumption that liquidity is really good, the music stops and we see a drastic deterioration?”

Bottom line: In anticipation of volatility striking at any time, analysts are already preparing for a tougher environment, with some pointing to weaker economic data, potential policy shifts, and corporate refinancing challenges as risks to watch.

Upcoming data points to watch:

USD 20 bn of high-grade US bond sales are expected next week.
US GDP for 3Q 2024 will likely come in at 3.1%, according to Bloomberg Economics.
October payrolls report on 1 November could show the first negative figure since 2020.
Eurozone inflation is projected to hold steady at 1.7% in October.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are broadly in the green in early morning trading, with the Nikkei up 1.5% and the Shanghai Composite up 0.2%. The Hang Seng Index is just barely in the red. Meanwhile, futures indicate Wall Street is set to open in the green later today.

TASI	12,069	+1.5% (YTD: +0.9%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,518	+1.5% (YTD: -2.1%)
NomuC	26,917	+0.4% (YTD: +9.7%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	5.5% repo	5.0% reverse repo
EGX30	30,812	+0.9% (YTD: +23.8%)
ADX	9,204	+0.1% (YTD: -3.9%)
DFM	4,479	+0.3% (YTD: +10.3%)
S&P 500	5,808	0.0% (YTD: +21.8%)
FTSE 100	8,249	-0.3% (YTD: +6.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	4,943	+0.2% (YTD: +9.3%)
Brent crude	USD 76.05	+2.3%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.56	+1.5%
Gold	USD 2,755	+0.2%
BTC	USD 67,762	+0.8% (YTD: +60.3%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 1.5% yesterday on turnover of SAR 5.5 bn. The index is up 0.9% YTD.

In the green: Miahona (+9.9%), Chubb (+7.8%) and Smasco (+7.3%).

In the red: Al Baha (-7.1%), Emaar (-1.9%) and (-1.7%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.4% yesterday on turnover of SAR 71.3 mn. The index is up 9.7% YTD.

In the green: Burgerizzr (+10.3%), Balady (+9.7%) and ASG (+8.8%).

In the red: Osool and Bakheet (-9.9%), Taqat (-9.2%) and Amwaj Int’l (-9.2%)

Saudi commits USD 55 mn in aid to the Sahel and Lake Chad region and Yemen

Saudi Arabia pledged an additional USD 30 mn in aid to the Sahel and Lake Chad region, bringing the Kingdom’s total assistance to the region since the start of the year to USD 51 mn, state news agency SPA reported. The funds were pledged via the Kingdom’s humanitarian agency KSRelief, and went towards the USD 1.1 bn raised during a donor conference hosted in Jeddah dedicated to supporting displaced persons and refugees in Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameroon, Burkina Faso and Mali.

Aid will also be dispatched to Yemen: KSRelief also signed a USD 25 mn mutual cooperation agreement with the UN’s World Food Program directed towards providing food assistance to vulnerable families in Yemen, state news agency SPA reported. The agreement will see 13,798 tons of food aid distributed in Yemen, in addition to initiatives to support local food production.

CALENDAR

OCTOBER

27-30 (Sunday-Wednesday): Human Resources and Manpower Expo, Riyadh International Exhibition and Convention Center, Riyadh.

29-31 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Investment Initiative Conference, Riyadh.

29 October - 2 November (Tuesday-Saturday): Jeddah International Motor Show, Superdome, Jeddah.

30 October - 3 November (Wednesday-Sunday): Hia Hub 4.0, Riyadh.

31 October (Thursday): No-visa travel for Saudis to Montenegro on charter flights expires.

NOVEMBER

2 November (Saturday): WWE Crown Jewel, Riyadh.

3 November (Sunday): WWE Raw, Riyadh.

3-4 November (Sunday-Monday): Road Safety & Sustainability Conference: Innovating for Tomorrow, Riyadh.

2-9 November (Saturday- Saturday): WTA Finals, Riyadh.

3-23 November (Sunday-Sunday): NEOM Beach Games, Neom.

4-7 November (Monday-Thursday): Saudi Build, Riyadh.

5-9 November (Tuesday-Saturday): Biban24 Forum, The Front Exhibition and Conference Center, Riyadh.

11-14 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Center.

11-22 November (Monday-Friday): The Diplomatic Conference to Conclude and Adopt a Design Law Treaty, Riyadh.

26-28 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Saudi Electricity Expo, Riyadh.

11-12 November (Monday-Tuesday): World Advanced Manufacturing Logistics Summit & Expo, Riyadh.

11-12 November (Monday-Tuesday): Saudi Airport Exhibition, Riyadh.

11-12 November (Monday-Tuesday): Expenditure Efficiency Forum, The Hilton, Riyadh.

11-13 November (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Intermobility Expo 2024, Jeddah.

11-14 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh.

16 November (Saturday): Latino Night at Riyadh Season, Riyadh.

18-20 November (Monday-Wednesday): The Heavy Equipment and Truck Show, Dammam.

19-20 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): The Women's Economic Forum 2024, Dammam.

20-21 November (Wednesday-Thursday): The Saudi Rail Conference and Exhibition, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh.

19-21 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Saudi International Maritime Forum, Dammam.

23 November (Saturday): Red Sea 600, Jeddah Yacht Club and Marina.

25-27 November (Monday-Wednesday): World Investment Conference, Riyadh.

26-28 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Power Expo, Riyadh.

28 November-14 December (Thursday-Saturday): Noor Riyadh, Riyadh.

29 November-2 December 2024 (Sunday-Wednesday): World Sailing Youth Match Racing World Championship, Jeddah Yacht Club and Marina.

DECEMBER

1 December (Sunday): Opec+ to meet.

2-3 December (Monday-Tuesday) Wings of Change Middle East, Riyadh.

3-5 December (Tuesday-Thursday): The International Business Exchange – IBEX EVENTS, Riyadh.

4-5 December (Wednesday-Thursday): Zakat, Tax and Customs Conference, Riyadh.

11 December (Wednesday): Billboard Arabia Music Awards (BBAMAs), King Abdullah Financial District, Riyadh.

2-13 December (Monday-Friday): Conference of the Parties (COP16) to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, Riyadh.

5-8 December (Thursday-Sunday): World Sailing Women’s Match Racing World Championship, Jeddah Yacht Club and Marina.

11 December (Wednesday): FIFA Congress, which will decide the hosting countries for the FIFA World Cup 2030 and 2034

15-19 December (Sunday-Thursday): Internet Governance Forum, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

23-26 December (Monday-Thursday): Aqarat Expo, Riyadh.

2025

JANUARY 2025

14-16 January (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Minerals Forum, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

27-29 January (Monday-Wednesday): Real Estate Future Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 January (Tuesday-Wednesday): Sustainability Forum Middle East, Riyadh.

29-30 January (Wednesday-Thursday): Global Labor Market Conference, Riyadh.

FEBRUARY 2025

4-5 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): The RLC Global Forum, Riyadh.

6-8 February (Thursday-Saturday): Liv Golf season opener, Riyadh Golf Club, Riyadh.

10-13 February (Monday-Thursday): Leap 2025, the Kingdom’s premier tech investment conference.

14-15 February (Friday-Saturday): Formula E, Diriyah.

19-21 February (Wednesday-Friday): Saudi Media Forum, Riyadh.

22 February (Saturday): Founding Day.

MARCH 2025

31 March- 3 April (Monday-Thursday): Eid al-Fitr.

MAY 2025

31 May-5 June (Saturday-Thursday): Hajj.

JUNE 2025

6-9 June ( Friday-Monday): Eid al-Adha.

26 June (Thursday): 2024-2025 academic year ends.

SEPTEMBER 2025

23 September (Tuesday): Saudi National Day.

2026

UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

2027

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.

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