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Opec & IEA are painting different pictures for oil markets in 2026

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Taif is the next stop in airport privatization

Good morning, ladies and gents. We hope at least a handful of you out there are enjoying a quiet week as we race toward New Year’s Eve.

We lead this morning with a deep dive into the clashing narratives on oil market forecasts for 2026. Opec seems to think producers are firmly in control, demand is robust, supply cuts are working, and the market can absorb a cautious return of barrels. Meanwhile, the IEA says demand is faltering, and an oil flood is looming. We unpack what each scenario means for traders, and what signals to watch for.

ALSO- Our banks remained resilient in the face of headwinds this year, although tight liquidity is expected to put a damper on loan growth in 2026. Let’s dive in.


WEATHER- A haze of dust and sand is forecast to blanket the Eastern Region, Hail, Al Jouf, and Tabuk, reducing visibility across the northern belt. Meanwhile, winds are expected to sweep through AlUla, Al Qassim, and Al Kharj, with light showers to fall over Aseer, Makkah, Al Baha, and Jazan.

  • Riyadh: 21°C high / 13°C low.
  • Jeddah: 28°C high / 20°C low.
  • Makkah: 29°C high / 20°C low.
  • Dammam: 24°C high / 14°C low.

Watch this space

PRIVATIZATION — Taif is the next stop in the plan for privatizing the Kingdom’s airports. The National Center for Privatization (NCP) and Matarat Holding announced that several leading global consortia are in the running for the new Taif International Airport development project.

Who’s in the running?

  • Turkey’s Kalyon İnşaat is partnering with Al Bawani Capital for one of the bids;
  • Mada International Holding joining forces with Turkey’s TAV Airports;
  • A third consortium brings together Tamasuk and Bengaluru International Airport;
  • Vision Invest, Asyad, and Dublin-based daa International are putting in a joint bid;
  • New Delhi-based GMR qualified as a standalone company.

The new airport — which will be located 21 km from the existing Taif Airport — will follow a Build-Transfer-Operate (BTO) model for a 30-year concession and targets a handling capacity of 2.5 mn passengers by 2030.

The blueprint: The Tibah Consortium (Al Rajhi Holding + TAV Airports) provided the proof of concept that privately run local airports are good for business, after they successfully tripled capacity to 9.4 mn passengers at Prince Mohammed bin Abdulaziz International Airport since they took over in 2012.

REMEMBER- We’re waiting on the Abha International Airport concession to be awarded within three months. The winner will finance and build the infrastructure to take the airport’s capacity from 1.5 mn to 13 mn passengers over three phases. Qassim and Hail airports are also reportedly next in line.


REAL ESTATE — Riyadh rent freeze is now in force: Landlords will have a 10-day grace period to rectify rent violations once notified by the Real Estate General Authority (Rega), under new regs published in Umm Al Qura earlier this week. Failure to comply can result in fines equivalent to one year’s total rent.

What are the violations? Upping the rent for current tenants when renewing their contract, increasing the rent for future tenants compared to the last contract for vacant properties, or failing to register contracts on the Ejar platform. Refusing to renew contracts and demanding tenants to vacate will also prompt Rega to intervene.

Why it matters: Rega is digitizing enforcement, as it now has the mandate to manually overwrite the lease agreement within the Ejar platform to reflect the fair price, or renew contracts in case landlords hold out.

BACKGROUND- The five-year rent freeze in the capital — introduced earlier this year — is a bid to control spiraling inflation in rent prices. Apartment rents jumped 15% in the first half of the year, while villa rates climbed 8%.

Briefly noted

Al Nassr FC is the first club in the Roshn Saudi League to win its 10th consecutive opening match. The club beat Al Okhdood 3-0, with Cristiano Ronaldo scoring a brace. Al Nassr will play against Ettifaq away from home tomorrow.

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***

The big story abroad

With a holiday-shortened business week yet to begin in the west, the global business press is once again going long on geopolitics, offering deep dives into inconclusive talks yesterday between US President Donald Trump and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump called the talks to end the war in Ukraine “excellent” and said they had made “a lot of progress.” Zelensky was less enthusiastic.

We’ll see as the day wears on whether the Santa rally in equities continues… Asian markets opened mixed this morning.

…but commodities are doing well: Silver rallied to a record high north of USD 80 per ounce, gold edged higher, and Brent crude poked above USD 61. You can thank geopolitical tensions, a weaker USD, and Beijing making all the right noises about supporting domestic growth in 2026.

With news sparse, there’s lots of stocktaking about 2025 — and looking ahead to 2026 and beyond — if you’re in the mood:

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YEAR IN REVIEW

Opec & IEA are at odds on 2026 oil market forecasts

Clashing narratives from Opec and the International Energy Agency (IEA) on the oil market are turning next year into a high-stakes guessing game. On one hand, producers are firmly in control, demand is robust, supply cuts are working, and the market can absorb a cautious return of barrels. On the other hand, demand is faltering, and an oil flood is looming.

BACKGROUND- Opec+ rapidly unwound voluntary production cuts this year in a bid to regain market share from US shale producers. The policy reversal saw production ceilings increase by some 2.9 mn bbl / d since April.

Every barrel Opec+ brought back was one barrel too many, the IEA argues. The agency has been sounding the glut alarm for months, saying that supply is set to exceed demand by some 4 mn bbl / d next year. The key culprit is a surge in non-Opec production — like US shale fields, Canadian oil sands, and Brazilian and Guyanese offshore rigs.

The cartel and the agency can’t agree on demand. The gap between their oil consumption forecasts has widened to some 540k bbl / d as Opec sees global oil demand growing by 1.4 mn bbl / d in 2026, almost double the IEA’s forecast of just 860k bbl / d.

Where the divergence lies: Opec argues consumption in Asia (especially China) is resilient enough to offset slowdowns elsewhere. Meanwhile, the IEA thinks demand in key emerging markets has consistently underperformed as trends like EV adoption are nibbling away at oil’s growth.

Both agree on one thing, though — a quiet winter. Global oil demand always cools in 1Q, and the wider Opec+ group hit the pause button for 1Q 2026, agreeing not to add any more barrels — an implicit nod to the seasonal slowdown and some looming economic uncertainty.

The IEA, however, views that pause as a mere speed bump. Even with Opec+ holding back in 1Q, the agency expects the barrels to come flooding in later. The combined surge of non-Opec output plus Opec+’s phased return of its earlier cuts will push the market into a surplus for the year as a whole, the IEA argues.

Early warnings started to show up: Global observed oil inventories swelled by some 225 mn barrels between January and August, reaching a four-year high — signaling that supply was outpacing demand during the period.

Why this matters for traders

Many are hedging their bets on both scenarios. We saw it in the pricing: for most of this year, outright oil prices held relatively firm and even traded in backwardation (near-term prices higher than futures), signaling a tighter market than the IEA’s forecast. The sentiment shifted by 4Q, as futures for next year traded above prompt prices — a sign traders were pricing in downside balance risks the IEA had been flagging.

SOUND SMART- Oil futures don’t follow textbook supply-and-demand economics. Higher future prices don’t signal stronger future consumption; they reflect comfortable supply conditions. When oil is plentiful, spot prices soften while futures rise to reflect storage and financing costs, pushing the curve into contango. Backwardation is the opposite: buyers pay up for oil now when supply is tight, or demand is strong, lifting near-term prices above later delivery. That’s why the shift into contango late in the year wasn’t a vote of confidence in demand — it was the market pricing of looser balances ahead.

The stakes are high for the Kingdom

The Kingdom’s oil strategy is a high-wire act: Oil still constitutes 60% of state revenue and over 65% of exports. Drops in average oil prices can significantly increase budget deficits, which have run for the past eight quarters. The trend already spurred increased government borrowing to cover the gap, and talk of trimming big-ticket projects is growing.

BUT- Riyadh appears willing to tolerate short-term price weakness to send a message — punishing Opec+ quota violators and pushing back against US shale producers who might otherwise take market share. It’s a dangerous game, but one Saudi has played before (recall 2014-2016’s price wars).

ICYMI- We sat down with EFG Hermes’ Head of Research Ahmed Shams El Din earlier this year to give us his take on what low oil prices could mean.

What signals to look for next?

We’ll be watching out for oil futures curve. If contango persists or deepens going into 2026, it means the IEA’s view is winning the day, and Opec+ may need to react more decisively. Meanwhile, a return to backwardation would indicate that barrels are tightening up. Keep an eye on time spreads as they are the heartbeat of how traders perceive the situation.

The second signal is inventory levels. It’s one thing for analysts to predict a glut — it’s another to see crude stockpiles actually pile up to the rafters. If we continue to see outsized builds in US and OECD stock reports, or floating storage ticking up, the IEA’s surplus story will gain ground. Meanwhile, if inventories start drawing down unexpectedly (say, a cold winter sparks demand or Opec+’s pause wasn’t enough and they cut more), it will be a sign the market is tighter than the doomsayers had thought.

3

INFRASTRUCTURE

Acwa Power lands USD 400 mn PPP agreement to build Azerbaijani desalination plant

Acwa Power is cementing its foothold in Central Asia: The renewables giant signed a USD 400 mn public-private partnership (PPP) agreement with the Azerbaijani government to develop the country’s first large-scale Caspian Sea reverse-osmosis desalination plant, according to a disclosure.

Single-sponsor play: The agreement was inked with the Azerbaijan State Water Resources Agency and covers the full stack of design, construction, financing, ownership, operation, and maintenance. Acwa holds 100% of the project company, Caspian Sea Azerbaijan Project Company.

REMEMBER- Acwa was awarded the contract earlier this year in January, where Turkish firm IC İçtaş Inşaat was involved too.

Not the first Azeri venture: Acwa inked a cooperation agreement with Azerbaijan in February 2023 to develop a 1.5 GW offshore wind energy project as part of a larger 2.5 GW wind farm initiative that will also see the development of the country’s first battery storage systems. The company is also on track to bring the 240 MW Khizi-Absheron Wind Power Plant online by next year.

Central Asia is a crucial gateway for trade, and Acwa Power is planning on a strong presence there. The company has significant portfolios in Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan and has earmarked some USD 15 bn for decarbonization projects in the region, CEO Marco Arcelli said last year.

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YEAR IN REVIEW

Saudi banks remained resilient in the face of 2025 headwinds

Despite the shift toward a lower interest rate environment amid global monetary easing, Saudi Arabia’s banks showed financial resilience and growth throughout 2025. The Kingdom’s top lenders consistently reported double-digit growth in net income across the first three quarters of the year, while lending activity remained strong and banks worked to improve their operational efficiency.

The year was off to a good start, with Saudi-listed banks reporting record-breaking performances in 1Q 2025 as top-line revenues reached USD 34.6 bn. The sector’s aggregate net income grew by 6.3% q-o-q to SAR 22.2 bn, supported by higher fee income and cost-efficiency measures. Saudi Arabia also led the GCC in credit growth, registering a 16.3% y-o-y increase in outstanding credit facilities.

Sustained momentum: The sector’s growth trajectory continued through the following two quarters, with net income rising 18% y-o-y in the second quarter to reach SAR 23 bn. By the third quarter, major banks reported higher-than-expected earnings, with aggregate net income increasing 15.1% y-o-y to SAR 23.6 bn.

Shifting liquidity dynamics

While profitability remained high, the sector faced tightening liquidity toward the end of the year. Customer deposits in Saudi banks saw their first decline in five quarters during the back half of 2025. Additionally, many banks experienced a narrowing of net interest margins (NIM) as they began to feel the impact of interest rate cuts implemented in line with the US Federal Reserve.

REFRESHER- The Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) implemented three consecutive interest rate cuts in alignment with the Fed. Following a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points over the year, the repo rate was lowered to 4.25% and the reverse repo rate to 3.75%.

3Q saw a surge in loan-to-deposit ratio of 97.6%, highlighting challenges on the liquidity front in the banking sector and indicating higher external funding requirements in the near term.

What’s on the horizon for 2026

The outlook for the Saudi banking sector is currently “neutral,” characterized by a favorable operating environment anchored by Vision 2030 initiatives and robust non-oil GDP growth, which is forecast to average 4.5% through 2027, according to a Fitch note seen by EnterpriseAM.

The sector is facing a tightening of liquidity that is expected to moderate loan growth. This liquidity pressure has led to an increased reliance on non-deposit funding and a rising cost of funding (despite falling interest rates), which in turn has compressed NIMs. Meanwhile, the agency sees net foreign assets remaining in negative territory in 2026, and to reach levels below 5% by the end of 2026.

Asset quality in Saudi Arabia is expected to remain among the strongest in the GCC, with only a marginal uptick of 10 bps in impaired-loan ratios. The ratings agency sees capitalization levels as adequate, supported by strong internal capital generation and dividend flexibility, even as capital buffers have seen a slight decline due to rapid growth.

ALSO- Fitch expects issuance volumes to stay elevated in 2026, driven by over USD 10 bn in maturities, USD 1.8 bn of AT1 instruments reaching first call dates, strong financing demand, and lower interest rates.

5

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

TGA freezes land transport fines + Sama digitalizes check clearing

TGA freezes land transport fines for a year

Land transport operators will have a 12-month breathing room, as the Transport General Authority freezed all financial fines imposed by the Land Transport Law’s executive regulations, according to a decision published in Umm Al Qura (pdf). The move allows businesses to navigate the transition to the new framework without immediate financial pressure.

BACKGROUND- The fines were introduced to move the industry away from haphazard stops and toward a regulatory system that tracks trips and licenses operators. Weight limits for transport were also set to protect the road infrastructure.

Sama speeds up check clearing with new digital service

Sama is looking to slash the clearing window of checks to a single day, introducing the Electronic Check Clearing System (ECCS) into its e-services portal, it said in a statement on Thursday.

The rationale: Multi-day clearing windows trap liquidity. Reducing the cycle to a single business day could provide an injection for SMEs and corporate entities that rely on check-based payments for B2B transactions, allowing for faster reinvestment and more predictable working capital management.

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PLANET FINANCE

Passive funds surge as narrow markets punish active managers in 2025

Passive funds come out on top while stock pickers bleed: 2025 was another punishing year for active equity managers. About USD 1 tn was pulled from active equity mutual funds, extending outflows to an 11th straight year, while passive equity ETFs pulled in more than USD 600 bn, according to Bloomberg Intelligence estimates.

Concentration did the damage: A small cluster of US mega-cap tech stocks accounted for an outsized share of market gains, reinforcing a decade-long pattern. Investors trying to keep up with the market have been increasingly cornered into holding those stocks (and little else), leaving diversified portfolios at a disadvantage.

The hit rate collapsed: Roughly 73% of US equity mutual funds trailed their benchmarks in 2025, the fourth-worst showing since 2007. Underperformance worsened after April’s tariff scare faded and AI enthusiasm reasserted tech leadership.

Breadth never showed up: On many days this year, fewer than one in five stocks rose alongside the broader market. The S&P 500 consistently beat its equal-weighted version — a clear signal that gains remained narrow and unforgiving for stock pickers.

Active still worked, just not at home: A handful of managers outperformed by stepping far outside US large caps. Dimensional Fund Advisors’ International Small Cap Value portfolio gained just over 50%, driven by exposure to non-US financials, industrials, and materials rather than Big Tech.

Why 2025 felt harsher than usual: The Financial Times points out that this year’s gainers were dominated by AI-linked stocks, Asian chipmakers, defense names, and precious metals, while US consumer and advertising stocks lagged — reinforcing sector and regional divides that made broad-based alpha elusive.

The identity crisis of “active”: With deviation proving costly, many funds drifted closer to index weights, blurring the line between active and passive while still charging higher fees. Bloomberg says that dynamic has made investors increasingly unwilling to pay for underperformance.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are starting the final trading week of the year on a mixed note. Japan’s Nikkei is down 0.5%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and the Shanghai Composite are in the green in early trading. US futures are mostly trading flat ahead of the market opening later today.

TASI

10,417

-1.0% (YTD: -13.5%)

MSCI Tadawul 30

1,378

-0.8% (YTD: -8.7%)

NomuC

23,244

-0.8% (YTD: -26.2%)

USD : SAR (SAMA)

USD 3.75 Sell

USD 3.75 Buy

Interest rates

4.25% repo

3.75% reverse repo

EGX30

4,504

1.3% (YTD:45.9%)

ADX

10,033

0.0% (YTD: +6.5%)

DFM

6,134

-0.1% (YTD: +18.9%)

S&P 500

6,930

0.0% (YTD: +17.8%)

FTSE 100

9,871

-0.2% (YTD: +20.8%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,746

-0.1% (YTD: +17.4%)

Brent crude

USD 61.15

+0.8%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 4.48

+2.7%

Gold

USD 4,523

-0.7%

BTC

USD 87,912

+0.1% (YTD: -6.2%)

Sukuk/bond market index

912.01

-0.4% (YTD: +1.1%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

151.73

+0.1% (YTD: +8.4%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

13.60

+1.0% (YTD: -21.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 1.0% yesterday on turnover of SAR 2.4 bn. The index is down 13.5% YTD.

In the green: Flynas (+5.1%), Amak (+4.8%) and Sieco (+4.8%).

In the red: Mutakamela (-8.4%), Wafrah (-7.1%) and CGS (-7.1%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.8% yesterday on turnover of SAR 17.3 mn. The index is down 26.2% YTD.

In the green: Horizon Educational (+6.5%), Hamad Bin Saedan Real Estate (+6.0%) and Leaf (+5.4%).

In the red: Al Babtain Food (-9.8%), Naas Petrol (-9.4%) and Naba Alsaha (-9.3%).


DECEMBER

31 December (Wednesday): Zatca 22nd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

31 December (Wednesday): Cancellation of Fines and Exemption of Financial Penalties Initiative by the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (Zatca) deadline.

2026

JANUARY

1 January (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for 54k properties in 77 neighborhoods across Riyadh, Makkah, and the Eastern Province.

1 January (Thursday): Electronic salary transfer via the Musaned platform becomes mandatory for all domestic workers in the Kingdom.

10-18 January (Saturday-Sunday): Public school mid-year break.

13-15 January (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Minerals Forum, King Abdul Aziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

15 January (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for 31.7k properties in 14 neighborhoods in the Eastern Province.

15 January (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for about 157.3k properties in 78 neighborhoods across the Eastern Province.

15 January (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for about 41.7k properties across 115 neighborhoods in Riyadh, Qassim, and the Eastern Province.

18-21 January (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Hospital Design and Build Expo, Riyadh.

26-27 January (Monday-Tuesday): SuperReturn Saudi Arabia, Hotel Fairmont, Riyadh.

26-27 (Monday-Tuesday): GPRC Summit, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Franchise Expo (SFE), Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): Real Estate Future Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): IFAT Saudi Arabia, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center, Riyadh,

27-28 (Tuesday-Wednesday): SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh.

28 (Wednesday): Data Center Nation Riyadh, Riyadh.

28-30 (Wednesday-Friday): Jeddah International Travel and Tourism Exhibition (JTTX), Jeddah.

FEBRUARY

2-4 (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Media Forum, Riyadh.

2-4 (Monday-Wednesday): Women Leaders Summit and Awards KSA, Riyadh.

2-13 (Monday-Friday): 2026 Asian Road Cycling Championship and Paralympic Cycling, Qassim.

3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday): RLC Global Forum Annual Meeting, Riyadh.

4 (Wednesday): Michelin Guide’s Restaurant Celebration, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

5-7 February (Thursday-Saturday): LIV Golf 2026 season opener, Riyadh Golf Club, Riyadh.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh.

9-10 February (Monday-Tuesday): Global Games Show Riyadh 2026, Malf Hall, Riyadh.

9-14 February (Monday-Saturday): Asian Racing Conference, Crowne Plaza Riyadh RDC Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

11 (Wednesday) Digital Transformation Summit Saudi Arabia (DTS), Riyadh.

11-14 (Wednesday-Saturday): JeddaDerm, Jeddah.

13-14 February (Friday-Saturday): Jeddah E-Prix 2026, Jeddah.

15-17 February (Sunday-Tuesday): The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh Front & Exhibition Center.

16 February (Monday) King Salman Stadium design-and-build contract prequalification submission deadline.

22 February (Sunday): Founding Day.

26 February (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for 142.8k properties across 104 neighborhoods in Hail.

MARCH

12 March (Thursday): Deadline for real estate registration for 253.2k properties in 499 neighborhoods across Riyadh, Qassim, Makkah, and Hail.

17-23 March (Tuesday-Monday): Eid Al-Fitr holiday.

21 March (Saturday): Fanatics Flag Football Classic, Kingdom Arena, Riyadh.

31 March (Tuesday): Zatca’s 23rd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

APRIL

6 April (Monday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

6-7 April (Monday-Tuesday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-16 April (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center – Malham.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21 April (Tuesday): GC Summit Saudi Arabia 2026, Saudi Arabia.

27-29 April (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

MAY

3-5 May (Sunday-Tuesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh.

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

24-28 (Sunday-Thursday): Eid al-Adha holiday.

JUNE

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

  • 2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production in 2026.
  • November: UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.
  • November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh.
  • The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.
  • 6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

  • The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.
  • The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.
  • Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

  • The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.
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