Good morning, friends, and welcome back. We hope you and yours found Eid Al Fitr as refreshing as we did.

It’s back to business today for the private sector. Banks and the stock market are also open.

Where are markets right now as we wait for the opening bell on the Tadawul?

• All three major US indexes closed down last week on lackluster bank earnings (yes, it’s already 1Q earnings season) and geopolitical tensions;
• BTC has been on a wild ride since Eid vacation began, climbing to nearly USD 72k before sliding around the USD 63k mark this morning. It’s now down nearly 14% from its YTD high;
• Gold hit a fresh all-time high on Friday as investors eye safe-haven assets.

Egypt is closed today for the final day of the Eid holiday and the UAE reopens tomorrow after the weekend.

SIGN OF THE TIMES- Fast food nation. The number of registered fast-food businesses rose 17% y-o-y in 2023 to 44.8k, Al Eqtisadiah reported, citing data by the Commerce Ministry. The uptick in the number of companies operating quick-service restaurants came thanks to new business starts. Riyadh topped the list of provinces with the highest number of fast-food businesses in the commercial register at 13.6k, followed by Makkah, the Eastern Province, Madinah and Asir.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

#1- The 2024 spring meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) kicked off on Thursday and run until Saturday, 20 April, in Washington, DC.

We have full coverage of World Bank President Ajaya Banga’s press conference kicking off the gathering. Scroll down to Planet Finance, below.

What you need to know:

Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, will hold a press briefing on Thursday, 18 April, to discuss the global policy agenda, which will be followed by a separate briefing hosted by Jihad Azour, IMF’s director of Middle East and Central Asia department.

Sound smart: Georgieva just got a second, five-year term as IMF boss. Her next term begins on 1 October 2024. The IMF’s executive board said she was getting another term thanks to ger “strong and agile leadership … navigating a series of major global shocks.” Georgieva was named IMF boss just months before covid-19 kicked off.

Hisham Alsheikh, vice governor of the Digital Government Authority (DGA), speak on "Exploring Digital Public Infrastructure for Public Finance" scheduled for Wednesday, 17 April. Alsheikh will be joined by Sailendra Pattanayak, deputy division chief at the IMF. Before joining DGA, Alsheikh was the deputy CEO of the e-Government program Yesser from 2019 to 2021.

MEANWHILE- Alsheikh will also be sharing insights about the govtech market on a panel titled “New Economy Forum: A GovTech Playbook: Lessons Learned from Cross-Country Experiences.” The panel will feature bankers from the USA, Europe, IMF, and Rwanda.

Go deeper: Check out the full schedule for the gathering here.

#2-The Gulf Film Festival (GFF) kicks off today in Riyadh. The five-day event is organized by the Film Commission in cooperation with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) General Secretariat. The festival will feature a lineup of 29 films from across the region. An awards program will recognize short films, feature films, acting, screenwriting, and sound. The event wraps up on Thursday, 18 April.

SPEAKING OF FILM- Tawfik Alzaidi’s film Norah has been selected to make its international debut at Cannes’ Un Certain Regard section, making it the first Saudi film to screen at Cannes, according to Saudi Gazette. The drama, which premiered at the Red Sea International Film Festival in Jeddah last year, tells the story of an illiterate young orphan Norah, crossing paths with an artist called Nader, who moved to the village to be a school teacher. The encounter helps Norah unleash a passion for art and a better future. Cannes runs 14-25 May this year.

#3- The Gulf Cooperation Council-Central Asian countries summit will kick off tomorrow in Uzbekistan’s Tashkent, Bahrain News Agency reported yesterday. The summit will focus on bolstering ties between the two sides based on the Joint Action Plan for 2023-2027 that was signed in September 2022.

#4- A 50% break on accumulated traffic fines will be implemented across the Kingdom starting Thursday, Okaz reported yesterday, citing remarks by General Department of Traffic spokesman Mansour Al Shakrah. Want to take advantage of the break? Pay your fines in the next six months.

WEATHER- Folks in Riyadh can expect cloudy skies today with a high of 32°C and low of 21°C before a spell of rain forecast to continue until Tuesday.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Riyadh ranked 25th in the Institute of Management Development’s SmartCity Index for 2024 (pdf), moving up five spots up from last year’s ranking. Makkah’s ranking was unchanged at 52. Zurich, Oslo, and Canberra topped the ranking, with Abu Dhabi being the only regional city to make the top 10.

#2- The Industrial Production Index (IPI) fell 7.7% y-o-y in February 2024, state statistics agency Gastat said in a report (pdf). The drop came on the back of a decline in mining and quarrying activity, which accounts for 61.4% of the index weight.

#3- Oil giant Aramco saw a 20% y-o-y decrease in the number and volume of hydrocarbon spills in 2023, its annual 2023 report (pdf) showed. It reported 12 hydrocarbon spills last year compared to 15 in 2022, with volumes amounting to a total of c. 8.6k barrels last year from c. 142.9k a year earlier.

#4- Authorities have impounded some 1.2k vehicles engaged in unlicensed passenger transport at the Kingdom’s airports during the month of Ramadan, the Transport General Authority (TGA) said in a post on X. The TGA issued last month a warning that companies running unlicensed passenger transports would be slapped with fines of SAR 5k for each violation.

#5- Over 2.5 mn visitors visited Jeddah’s Historic District during Ramadan, statenews agency SPA reported. This comes under efforts to turn the area into a global culture and tourism attraction.

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MORNING MUST READ-

The race for AI supremacy in Middle East is measured in data centers, in Bloomberg Businessweek, which takes a deep dive into how Saudi and the UAE are positioning themselves as the natural leaders of AI in our part of the world.

Where we stand: Saudi has a little more than half of the UAE’s installed capacity: 123 MW of data centers to the UAE’s 235. We plan to add another 467 MW over the next few years, boosted most recently by recent (separate) announcements from Amazon and DataVolt worth a combined USD 10.3 bn.

WHY IT MATTERS- AI could contribute USD 135 bn to Saudi’s economy by 2030, according to a recent study by PwC.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Geopolitics looks set to dominate today’s news cycle after Iran lanched a missile and drone attack on Israel overnight in retaliation for an Israeli attack on Iran’s embassy in Syria that killed a number of high-profile military commanders. The story dominates front pages from the Financial Times to the New York Times and Bloomberg.

AND- Hamas has told Egyptian mediators that it won’t accept an Israeli ceasefire plan at the same time as Israel insists it will still push ahead with an assault on Rafah.

In US politics: Polls suggest that Joe Biden is closing the gap with Donald Trump. The two are virtually tied in the latest New York Times poll with Trump at 46% and Biden at 45%. That tracks with the findings of other polls in the past month, the Gray Lady writes.

MEANWHILE- Humane’s much-hyped AI Pin is out, and the verdict is a decidedly “meh.” The Verge’s David Pierce obviously loves its potential, but concludes: “There’s only one problem: it just doesn’t work.” His video review is one of the most enjoyable (and funniest) we’ve watched in a long time (watch, runtime: 16:46).

OIL WATCH-

Opec is predicting “robust oil demand” during the summer, leaving its 2024 forecast unchanged in its latest monthly report (pdf) out last week. The group expects demand jet fuel and kerosene to pick up as summer travel season begins. Opec stuck to earlier projections seeing global oil demand growing by 2.25 mn barrels per day (bpd) this year and 1.85 mn bpd in 2025.

And Opec shows no signs of backing away from production caps, writing that it will “remain vigilant, proactive and prepared to act, when necessary, to the requirements of the market.”

SOUND SMART- “Opec+’s control will allow cartel to define where prices go in the next 12 months,” the Financial Times writes, citing remarks by the head of commodities at hedge fund giant Citadel at a conference last week.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Saudi has imposed anti-dumping duties on seven imported products from ten European and Asian countries, Al Eqtisadiah reported, citing data it has seen.

At issue:

• Superabsorbent polymer from five countries will be hit with duties through March 2028;
• Iranian clinker and cement will now face a 67.5% anti-dumping duty
• Car batteries in the 35-115 amp range from South Korea have also been hit;
• Fluted cardboard and unpainted testliner cardboard from Spain and Poland will face sanctions.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Gulf Film Festival (GFF) will open from Sunday, 14 April till Thursday, 18 April in Riyadh. Organized by the Film Commission in cooperation with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) General Secretariat, the five-day event will showcase a selection of 29 films from across the region. It will also include three training workshops and six educational seminars focused on fostering artistic dialogue and raising awareness of cinema's social impact.

Riyadh will host a special meeting of the World Economic Forum on 28-29 April.

Automechanika Riyadh will open on Tuesday, 30 April till Thursday, 2 May at the Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center.The annual trade fair will showcase the automotive industry’s latest advances and innovations.

The King Salman bin Abdulaziz Royal Reserve Festival will kick off today at the Cultural Center in Al-Qurayyat governorate, state news agency SPA reports. The art and culture event runs until Thursday, 18 April.