Good morning. We’re getting closer to the precious weekend of what is looking to be an uneventful week on the domestic front. Marafiq is leading a consortium to build a SAR 1.9 bn wastewater plant in Jubail II, while Wajd Life saw its Nomu IPO 1.8x oversubscribed, a hopefully good sign amid offering cancellations and YTD losses for the parallel market.

Regionally, it’s a different story: Things are dangerously escalating after Israel launched a stunning strike on Doha targeting Hamas’ political leadership. We have the details in our Big Story Abroad section, below.

BUT FIRST- Was your internet connection affected by the cable cuts? Now we know who the likely culprit is: shallow cabling. A commercial ship’s dragged anchor is probably what led to the four severed submarine internet cables in the Red Sea, which disrupted internet in at least 10 countries in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, the International Cable Protection Committee’s Operations Manager John Wrottesley told the Associated Press. Shallow cabling in the area makes it prone to such damage, which causes about 30% of global faults, Kentik’s Director of Internet Analysis Doug Madory said.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- Dar Al Majed Real Estate Company will debut on Tadawul’s main market today, according to a Tadawul disclosure. Shares will be allowed to fluctuate within a 30% range, with a static band of 10% for the first three days. Starting from the fourth day, shares will trade with a 10% daily volatility as circuit breakers take effect.

REFRESHER- The developer floated a 30% stake in a secondary offering, which saw its institutional tranche 107x oversubscribed and its retail offering 2.8x oversubscribed. The company raked in SAR 1.26 bn in proceeds, giving it a market cap of SAR 4.2 bn at listing. Shares were priced at the top of the guiding range at SAR 14 apiece.

#2- Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will deliver the annual royal speech addressing the Shura Council today, on behalf of King Salman, state news agency SPA reported. The royal address sets the policy roadmap for the Shura Council’s coming year.

ALSO- The Crown Prince chaired the weekly cabinet meeting, which saw the approval of the organizational structure of both the Transport and Logistics Services Ministry and the National Center for Transport Safety during the meeting held in Riyadh, as well ass approving a slew of MoUs, state news agency SPA reported.

WEATHER- Heavy rain persists over Makkah, Asir, Jazan, and Al Baha, along with moderate to light showers over Madinah, Riyadh, and Najran. Riyadh’s mercury will go as high as 42°C and as low as 31°C today, while Jeddah will witness temperatures peak at 38°C before cooling down to 32°C, and Makkah will see a 40°C high and 31°C low.

PSAs-

#1- The Saudi Exchange will be closed for the National Day on Tuesday, 23 September, halting trading at the end of the day on Monday, 22 September and resuming on Wednesday, 24 September, according to a Tadawul statement.

#2- Today is the last chance for businesses subject to withholding tax to file their August returns via Zatca’s website, the authority said in a statement on Sunday. Late submissions will face a 1% penalty for every 30 days of delay.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- The Public Investment Fund (PIF) will set out a new long-term investment strategy in the coming two months, Governor Yasir Al Rumayyan said during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington, extending the sovereign wealth fund’s roadmap to 2040 and beyond, Bloomberg reports.

The fund will continue to prioritize domestic projects, Al Rumayyan said, with about 80% of capital deployed inside the kingdom and the remainder invested abroad through co-investments and partnerships, Al Arabiya reports. “We need to increase and grow our local content and one of the best ways to do so is to get direct foreign investments into the country,” Al Rumayyan said.

REMEMBER- The fund is targeting SAR 4 tn in AUM by end-2025, up from SAR 3.4 tn currently, with 21% allocated to new sectors and 24% to international assets. Looking ahead, the fund aims to become the world’s largest, with USD 2-3 tn in assets by 2030 — a projection that aligns with Global SWF forecasts.

#2- Dubai-based luxury confectioner and café chain Bateel International is said to be weighing an IPO on Tadawul, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The group, which is majority-owned by Saudi royal family Al Sudairi, reportedly tapped Morgan Stanley and approached local banks to explore a public listing in Riyadh, though the size and timing remain undecided. This comes a year after reports that US private equity firm L Catterton, which is backed by French luxury house LVMH, was weighing a full exit of its 20% stake in Bateel.

About Bateel: Founded in 1936 as a Saudi date-farming venture, Bateel has since grown into a global luxury food and café brand, with CEO Nurtac Afridi outlining plans to triple revenues and expand its store network to 500 outlets by 2029, including a planned entry into the New York retail market next year.

#3- HSBC’s Saudi equity capital markets head to leave for PJT? Ramez Halazun is reportedly stepping down as head of equity capital markets for Saudi Arabia at HSBC Holdings, Bloomberg reports, citing sources it says are in the know. Halazun — appointed in 2024 as part of the bank’s expansion push — is set to lead Dubai-based advisory firm PJT deNovo ’s expansion into regional capital markets, the source said.

IN CONTEXT- While HSBC is cutting jobs and retreating from investment banking in the West, it has singled out the Middle East as a key growth area for agreements and IPOs. The move highlights the fierce competition for top banking talent in the region, driven by a booming Saudi-led IPO market that has raised nearly USD 5.7 bn this year alone, according to Bloomberg’s tally.

#4- Bahrain and Saudi Arabia plan a new passenger sea route: The Kingdom and Bahrain are gearing up to launch a new passenger sea route linking Khalifa bin Salman Port in Bahrain with King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, Aleqtisadiah reported, citing statements by Bahrain’s Transport and Telecoms Minister Shaikh Abdulla bin Ahmed Al Khalifa during the Maritime Industries Sustainability Conference.

The two countries are also in discussions on the planned 25 km King Hamad Causeway, which would expand rail and road capacity alongside the existing King Fahd Causeway.

MARKET WATCH-

The LNG market is on track to swing into oversupply from 2026, marking a sharp reversal after years of tightness following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Bloomberg reports. The International Energy Agency expects the biggest jump in liquefaction output next year since 2019. The market is set to start easing after 1Q 2026, with supply length building through late 2026 and 2027, Bloomberg reports citing BNP Paribas’ head of energy strategy Aldo Spanjer.

More than 174 mn metric tons of new capacity is currently being built, set to lift global supply to 594 mn tons a year by 2030 — a 42% increase over 2023, according to BloombergNEF. Developers have penciled in long-term demand growth as Europe replaces Russian pipeline gas and China accelerates coal-to-gas switching.

That supply surge will likely outpace consumption, with BloombergNEF projecting that supply will consistently exceed demand between 2027 and 2030. Morgan Stanley expects European and Asian gas prices to drop below USD 10 per mn British thermal units (mmbtu) by late 2026, down from an average of USD 14 last winter, while BNP Paribas sees prices slipping as low as USD 8 in 2027.

Prices at those levels could reshape trade flow. Cheaper LNG would encourage Asian utilities to substitute oil with gas and could unlock demand in South Asia and Africa, where import terminals have sat idle due to high prices. The anticipated price drop could also broaden LNG’s role in power generation and open new growth markets for producers.

Opec leans on six members to make up for oversupply: Opec has set a compensation schedule requiring six members to make additional supply cuts between August 2025 and June 2026 to offset overproduction, according to a statement. The total aggregate reductions per month range from 190k bbl / d to 829k bbl / d.

By the numbers: Kazakhstan shouldered the largest burden at 2.63 mn bbl, followed by Iraq at 1.4 mn bbl, Russia at 311k bbl, followed by the UAE at 309k bbl, followed by Oman and Kuwait at 70k and 59k, respectively, for a combined 4.8 mn bbl. The remaining OPEC members — including Saudi Arabia — were not required to make compensatory cuts.

ICYMI- Opec+ will raise output again next month, approving an additional 137k bbl / d from October as part of its accelerated rollback of supply cuts. The cartel said it will continue monthly hikes through September 2026, fast-tracking the return of 1.65 mn bbl / d that was previously set to stay offline until the end of 2026.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Israel has taken its cross-border campaign against Hamas into uncharted territory, launching what it claimed to be ‘a precision airstrike’ in Doha targeting the group’s political leadership. The strike — which killed five Hamas members including the son of top negotiator Khalil Al Hayya — came as Hamas leaders gathered to discuss a US-backed ceasefire proposal. While Hamas claims senior figures survived, the attack has upended fragile truce efforts and drawn sharp condemnation from Qatar, which labeled the strike a “flagrant violation.” A Qatari security officer was among those killed, and Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani warned that the talks now “lack any validity.”

Qatar said it will reserve the right to retaliate: The prime minister told reporters in a press conference (watch, runtime: 2:26) following the strikes that “Qatar is committed to act in a decisive way” against any threats to its territories and “will reserve the right to take all the needed measures to retaliate.”

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman also condemned the strike, calling it “criminal act” in a call with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. The Crown Prince also stressed that “the Kingdom is deploying all its capabilities” to support Qatar in safeguarding its security and sovereignty.

The US, meanwhile, sought to distance itself, with President Donald Trump calling the strike an “unfortunate incident.” (Reuters | The Guardian | New York Times | CNN | BBC | Bloomberg | Associated Press)

AND- Trump is calling on the EU to impose tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese and Indian imports in a bid to pressure Russia — and is promising the US will match them if Brussels steps up. Speaking during a closed-door US-EU meeting in Washington, Trump said the West should keep the tariffs in place “until the Chinese agree to stop buying [Russian] oil.” (Financial Times | Reuters)

ALSO- The iPhone 17 is here: Apple announced its latest wave of products — the iPhone 17 and updated versions of its Apple Watch and AirPods — but the market wasn’t impressed. Apple shares dipped 1.6% following the event, as critics called the product refresh “incremental” and warned that Apple has yet to make its promised leap into AI. (Reuters | Bloomberg | Financial Times | CNBC | CNN)

ALSO WORTH NOTING THIS MORNING-

#1- Macron appoints new PM: French President Emmanuel Macron has appointed his long-time ally and Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu as prime minister in a bid to push through a contested EUR 44 bn austerity plan and end months of political deadlock. His appointment follows the ousting of two prime ministers in less than a year and comes ahead of planned nationwide protests against proposed spending cuts. (Reuters | Financial Times | New York Times | Associated Press)

#2- A sweeping youth-led anti-corruption movement in Nepal forced Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli to resign yesterday. Protests were triggered by his government banning 26 social media platforms, including Facebook and Instagram. The movement has put fresh pressure on Nepal’s political class amid deep economic inequality and joblessness, with calls mounting for Kathmandu’s mayor Balendra Shah, a 35-year-old former rapper, to take the helm. (Reuters | BBC | Associated Press | New York Times)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Orgatech Workspace Saudi Arabia will run from 16 to 18 September at Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center. The three-day event will bring together architects, designers, and facility managers, among others, to explore innovative workplace solutions. It will feature over 50 global speakers and 100 workshops focused on the latest technologies, designs, and strategies for improving workflow and employee wellness.