Inflation cools to 1.7% in February — but a supply shock could be ahead

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

GCC could see worst economic slump since Gulf War

Good morning, lovely people. We’re only a few sleeps away from the end of Ramadan and a much, much needed Eid break. We are hoping to unplug from the endless barrage of news that has been going on for the past couple of weeks.

It’s still mostly business as usual in the Kingdom, save for limited drone interceptions over Riyadh and the Eastern Province, as we’ve been spared the brunt of Iranian attacks targeting critical infrastructure all over the region.

Tehran is claiming it is “not responsible” for strikes on our oil infrastructure, including strikes on Ras Tanura and the Shaybah oil field, Iran’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia told Reuters.

Iran seems to want a second look at Gulf relations: Diplomatic relationships with Gulf countries are due for a “serious review” following US-Israeli strikes, the ambassador said. He called for deeper ties between GCC nations and the Islamic Republic and warned against “excessive reliance on external powers” and “an exclusionary approach [within the region].”

**PROGRAMMING NOTE- EnterpriseAM Saudi will be off for Eid Al Fitr starting tomorrow, and will be back in your inboxes at the usual time on Tuesday, 24 March.

Watch this space

ECONOMY — A grim forecast if the Iran conflict drags on: The GCC could see the worst economic slump since the 1990s Gulf War, but Saudi Arabia is positioned to weather the storm far better than its regional peers, economists tell Bloomberg.

What changed: A two-month shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz could vaporize 14% of GDP in Qatar and Kuwait this year. The Kingdom is looking at a much softer 3% contraction.

Why? The divergence comes down to infrastructure and defense. The Kingdom can reroute its crude exports away from the vulnerable Hormuz waterway. Riyadh continues to successfully thwart most incoming Iranian strikes, allowing domestic airspace and businesses to remain open with limited physical disruption.

What’s next? Non-oil sectors like tourism and real estate will inevitably take a hit from regional anxiety, yet there is a possibility the war actually improves Saudi’s balance sheet for 2026, analysts told the business information service. Brent crude topped USD 103 / bbl on Friday — if the Kingdom sustains an average output of 7.5 mn bbl / d with oil staying in the USD 90 / bbl range, its budget deficit could shrink by 1% this year, beating the government’s initial forecast of a 3.3% shortfall.

ADCB says the war could be a boon for Saudi’s deficit, too — but only if the conflict remains limited. We have more on that in today’s news well, below.

ENERGY — Gulf producers watch bns of USD slip through Hormuz: The near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has already erased an estimated USD 15 bn in energy revenues for Gulf exporters, according to Kpler data picked up by the Financial Times.

The breakdown: The chokepoint typically moves some USD 1.2 bn worth of crude, refined products, and LNG every day (based on last year’s prices and volumes), and currently, at least USD 10.7 bn worth of cargoes are still stranded inside, awaiting safe passage. Losses are piling up unevenly, however, with Saudi Arabia alone missing out on some USD 4.5 bn in revenues since the start of the war.

Meanwhile, Asia looks to the US to diversify oil sources beyond the Middle East: The Hormuz chokepoint is pushing Asian countries to seek US energy suppliers as alternatives to reduce Middle East dependence, Bloomberg reports. US companies have secured USD 50 bn worth of investments in the past 48 hours, US Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin told the business information service.

It would currently take around eight days to ship from the US, compared to 28 days from the Middle East via the now-restricted Strait of Hormuz. This is pushing Indo-Pacific countries to gravitate toward US energy exports, prioritizing logistical reliability over potential volatile tariff policies, Zeldin said.

LOGISTICS — The Saudi Ports Authority added CMA CGM’s Redex shipping service to Jeddah Islamic Port, according to a statement on X. The French shipping giant’s service — which has a total carrying capacity of 2.59k standard containers — connects the port to Malta Freeport, Egypt’s Port Said and Alexandria ports, as well as Jordan’s port of Aqaba.

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The big story abroad

The regional war is still getting ink from all international dailies — no surprise there — as Washington raises the stakes. US President Donald Trump has warned Nato that it faces a “very bad” future if the coalition does not help the US in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, he told the Financial Times. Trump also signaled that he may delay his sit-down with China’s President Xi Jinping — scheduled for later this month — in efforts to pressure Beijing to act.

And in the world of e-commerce: Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com has launched its online marketplace — Joybuy — in European markets, as it prepares to face off with its major rival Amazon. China’s largest direct online retailer has stepped foot into the UK, Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg, diversifying its offerings away from its home market, where retailers face fierce competition vis-a-vis fast delivery times.

AND- This year’s Oscars are wrapping up as we hit send this morning. Among those who secured awards during the ceremony: Jessie Buckley won best actress for her performance in Hamnet and Sinners’ Michael B Jordan was awarded best actor. One Battle After Another took home the award for best picture.

The calm before the supply shock

Inflation cooled to 1.7% in February, but a wartime rebound is looming. The annual inflation rate decelerated from 1.8% in January, according to the latest data (pdf) from the General Authority for Statistics (Gastat).

Housing remains the main anchor: The 1.7% headline figure was driven almost entirely by the housing and utilities segment, which surged 4.1% y-o-y on the back of a 5.1% jump in actual housing rents. Personal care and miscellaneous goods also jumped 8.2%. Price action was largely muted otherwise, with food, beverages, and clothing remaining flat.

A little inflation isn’t a bad thing. A 1.7% print is “somewhat lower than necessary” for a rapidly expanding economy, MENA economist Hamzeh Al Gaaod tells EnterpriseAM. To sustain its economic diversification targets, the Kingdom needs a touch of demand-pull inflation to signal healthy investment and consumer appetite, he argues.

What comes next: A war-driven supply shock

The data captures the market just before the outbreak of the war, setting the stage for a likely rebound in the cost of living.

If the regional conflict persists beyond the first few weeks, the disruption to supply chains is expected to drive up the cost of housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, Al Gaaod says. “These essential services could increase inflation [...] in Saudi Arabia due to, of course, the outbreak of the war,” Al Gaaod noted.

ALSO- Wholesale pressure is already building: The wholesale price index accelerated to 3.5% in February, fueled primarily by a massive 34.1% annual surge in basic chemicals and a 3.9% rise in refined petroleum products, according to separate Gastat data (pdf).

Land bridge over troubled water

Gulf trade is looking for alternative roads, and Saudi is the bridge: The Transport Ministry launched a logistics corridor initiative linking the Kingdom’s west-coast ports to inland transport and customs routes feeding Gulf markets to keep supply chains moving while navigating risk around the Strait of Hormuz.

The move turns Red Sea ports into a fallback gateway for Gulf trade. Cargo arriving via the Suez Canal can land at Jeddah Islamic Port, King Abdullah Port, or Yanbu Commercial Port before moving overland to Gulf markets. In practice, that means goods from Asia or Europe could reach the Gulf without passing through Hormuz.

Disruptions are forcing traders to look for alternatives: Shipping companies are already avoiding Hormuz as ins. costs and war risk escalate. Under normal conditions, around one-fifth of global seaborne oil and gas trade passes through the strait, along with a significant share of Gulf-bound goods.

Why this matters

The push for alternative routes reflects a broader shift in supply chains. We are seeing a shift where customers are requiring a plan B shipping option or “backup offer” — a consideration often neglected by large global industries in the past, until recent crises exposed the fragility of single-route supply chains, Folk Maritime CEO Poul Hestbaek told us last year.

The stakes are significant: When shipping through Hormuz became unreliable, the Gulf’s entire trade model came under pressure. Saudi’s Red Sea ports and overland transport network offer one of the few existing pathways that can reroute cargo at scale without relying on the eastern coast.

Some carriers are adapting, Neil Lowry, Athens correspondent at Lloyd’s List, said in an overview talk attended by EnterpriseAM. Lowry pointed to the AE19 service launched by Gemini carriers that sails around the Cape of Good Hope into the Mediterranean and then into Jeddah, where cargo can move onward to Gulf markets via land bridge and rail connections.

Port operators are already bracing for the shift: DP World — which operates the South Container Terminal at Jeddah Islamic Port — expects rising volumes at its Red Sea terminals as the closure of the strait diverts traffic away from Gulf ports, CEO Yuvraj Narayan said. He noted that terminals such as Jeddah are likely to see higher traffic as cargo is rerouted.

The advantage? Spare port capacity. Ports along the Kingdom’s west coast have an annual capacity exceeding 18.6 mn TEUs, much of it not fully utilized.

REMEMBER- The Red Sea is getting a second chance: At least 25 supertankers were heading toward the Kingdom’s Yanbu Commercial Port to keep crude flowing. The play hinges on the east-west pipeline — the Kingdom’s emergency bypass around Hormuz. Crude flows through the pipeline are ramping up toward its full 7 mn bbl / d capacity within days.

This second chance could create a “healthy” competition: Saudi investments in inland logistics zones and Red Sea gateways will narrow the perceived gap with established hubs in the UAE, Wolfgang Lehmacher, former head of supply chain and transport industries at the World Economic Forum, tells EnterpriseAM.

BUT- In a world of weaponized interdependence, there’s more value in a connected Middle Eastern platform of interoperable hubs — Jeddah, Yanbu, Dammam, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Salalah, Aqaba, and others — rather than in a zero-sum race where everyone tries to become “the” hub, Lehmacher said. The advice would be to compete on performance but collaborate on standards, data, and interoperability, ensuring the region becomes more indispensable and resilient to global shippers and investors, he added.

What’s next?

Players could opt to design portfolios of corridors that give them options when geopolitics, markets, or climate turn against us, Lehmacher said. “By shifting part of the flow away from the Gulf and toward the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, these corridors do not make Hormuz irrelevant, but they do change the geometry of power in the region: market access, risk, and bargaining leverage will no longer be concentrated in a single narrow waterway,” he added.

For now, the real indicator will be cargo movement itself — whether cargo shifts in scale and shipping lines actually shift flows. Early signals suggest the market is already testing alternatives. If rerouting accelerates, the Kingdom’s Red Sea ports could move from backup option to central gateway for GCC trade even after the conflict eases.

ADCB sees shrinking deficit path for Saudi in 2026

ADCB sees narrower deficit ahead for Saudi: A temporary spike in oil prices coupled with a post-conflict production ramp-up could see the Kingdom’s fiscal deficit narrow more than previously expected this year, according to an Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) research note cited by Asharq Business.

How? The conclusion of the Iran conflict could pave the way for Opec+ to meaningfully increase output, Monica Malik, chief economist at ADCB, said in the note. This shift would play directly to the strengths of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which hold the lion’s share of the world’s spare production capacity.

The caveat: The forecast assumes that the duration of the conflict remains limited, allowing for a swift normalization of energy markets. That is looking increasingly unlikely after the US started targeting oil export infrastructure on Iran’s Kharg Island over the weekend, prompting the IRGC to threaten wide targeting of oil infrastructure across the region.

Two scenarios

ADCB’s projections are looking at two scenarios for 2026, both of which represent a shift from the bank’s pre-war forecast of 5.3% of GDP:

In a baseline scenario, the shortfall drops to 4.2% of GDP — down from 5.8% in 2025 — if Brent averages USD 72 / bbl. This holds even if daily exports dip to an average of 6.2 mn bbl / d;
A second scenario sees the deficit shrinking further to 3-3.5% of GDP if Brent averages USD 80 / bbl. This scenario hinges on the Kingdom scaling exports to over 7 mn bbl / d during 2H this year.

The second scenario brings ADCB’s outlook closer to the government’s targets. Saudi Arabia is shifting toward fiscal consolidation in 2026, looking to narrow its budget deficit to 3.3% of GDP (SAR 165 bn).

ADCB isn’t alone in its projections, with economists telling Bloomberg that the Kingdom could be facing a 3% drop in GDP — which would be its worst hit since the Covid pandemic in 2020 — but will ultimately fare best among its Gulf peers during a protracted war. High oil revenues and export volumes could allow the country to exceed expectations this year, most of the economists said.

The outlook

ADCB expects the Kingdom to lean more heavily on domestic borrowing if the conflict dampens appetite for international bond issuances. Low government debt and robust foreign exchange reserves provide a “sufficient cushion” to navigate the current fog of geopolitical uncertainty, according to the note.

A flurry of 2025 earnings

Riyadh Cables Group

Riyadh Cables Group’s net income climbed 32.3% y-o-y to SAR 1.1 bn in 2025, supported by an improved product mix and sales growth, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Revenue rose 18.5% y-o-y to SAR 10.6 mn.

Dividends: The company’s board recommended an SAR 336.9 mn dividend payout for 2H 2025 at SAR 2.25 apiece, it said in a separate disclosure. The distribution date is yet to be announced.

MBC Group

MBC Group’s net income edged up 2.7% y-o-y to SAR 382.5 mn in 2025, even as content write-downs and higher amortization weighed on its bottom line, according to its earnings release (pdf). The media giant’s top line climbed 28.5% y-o-y to SAR 5.4 bn during the year, supported by a 16.8% rise in broadcasting and commercial activities, a 28.2% jump in Shahid revenue, and a 69.6% increase in the media and entertainment segment.

Retal

Retal Urban Development reported a record net income of SAR 293.3 mn in 2025, up 10.2% y-o-y, it said in a Tadawul disclosure. Revenue also hit an all-time high of SAR 2.4 bn, rising 18.2% y-o-y, driven by 20.9% growth in development contract revenue and an 11.2% increase in property and facility management income. Growth was also supported by higher completion rates on ongoing projects and the start of new ones.

Budget Saudi

The United International Transportation Company (Budget Saudi) saw its net income rise 9.9% y-o-y to SAR 345.8 mn in 2025, supported by higher fleet utilization and the first full-year contribution from Autoworld’s leasing business, it said in a Tadawul disclosure. Revenue grew 22.7% y-o-y to SAR 2.4 bn, bolstered by fleet expansion, logistics growth, and increased vehicle sales.

Dividends: Budget Saudi’s board recommended the distribution of SAR 78.2 mn in dividends for 2H 2025 at SAR 0.75 per share, it said in a separate disclosure. The distribution date is yet to be announced.

Tasnee

National Industrialization Company (Tasnee) saw its net loss widen to SAR 1.8 bn in 2025 from SAR 27.9 mn a year earlier, largely due to asset and investment impairments at the Jazan and Jubail plants and in Tronox, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Revenue also fell 17.7% y-o-y to SAR 2.4 bn, weighed down by lower selling prices and volumes across most products.

Group Five Pipe Saudi

Group Five Pipe Saudi Co. posted a 276% y-o-y jump in net income to SAR 144.8 mn in 2025, driven by higher selling prices and lower production costs, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Revenue more than doubled during the year, rising 107.8% y-o-y to SAR 2 bn.

Dividends: The company’s board recommended the distribution of SAR 120.4 mn in dividends for 2025 at SAR 4.3 per share, it said in a separate disclosure. The distribution date is yet to be announced.

Acwa tightens grip on Shuaibah, SIIG + Unibio targets bio-protein

Acwa becomes majority shareholder in Shuaibah Water and Electricity

Acwa raised its stake in Shuaibah Water and Electricity Company to 62% after acquiring a 32% share — through its Al Waha Projects unit — from PIF subsidiary Water and Electricity Holding Company for SAR 843.3 mn, according to a Tadawul disclosure. The acquisition, funded from internal reserves, boosts Acwa’s control over the 900 MW power and 880k cbm/d desalination facility.

Why it matters: Shuaibah is a money-spinner. As Saudi Arabia’s first independent water and power project, it offers Acwa a stable revenue stream under a power and water purchase agreement running through 2030, reinforcing Acwa’s balance sheet and supporting its other projects, it said in an earlier disclosure.

SIIG to develop a SAR 1.4 bn bio-protein production facility with Unibio

The Saudi Industrial Investment Group (SIIG) is partnering with Denmark’s Unibio to develop a dry gas-based bio-protein production facility in Jubail Industrial City, it said in a bourse filing. The project, valued at approximately SAR 1.4 bn, will utilize a dry gas feedstock allocation from the Energy Ministry to produce 50k tonnes of single-cell protein annually.

Stakeholders and funding: SIIG will maintain an 80% majority stake, while Unibio will hold the remaining 20%. Financing for the development will be sourced through a combination of SIIG’s internal capital, commercial loans, and government funding.

The timeline: Construction is expected to start in 2H 2026 and finish by 2H 2027, with a six-month pilot phase in late 2027 and commercial production starting in 1H 2028.

Out with old hedges, and in with the new

Stagflation is writing the hedge book now. With oil threatening to keep inflation elevated amid softening growth, investors are looking toward alternatives like specific equities, option overlays, CDS, commodities, and the USD for protection while moving away from typical safe havens like bonds.

But first, what exactly is stagflation? Stagflation is what happens when the economy sees a toxic mix of inflation and stagnation of growth — usually accompanied by higher unemployment and tighter monetary conditions. Prices rise, but consumers’ purchasing power dwindles, and low economic growth hits business confidence. This often happens at times of significant supply chain disruptions. We went through what that looks like in practical terms in our explainer a couple of years ago, when similar concerns had been rampant in light of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war.

Bond yields have soared as traders expect slower economic growth and a surge in consumer prices. Two-year US yields climbed about 9 bps on Thursday to their highest since August, while German two-year yields climbed 8 bps to 2.39%, and UK bonds rose as much as 30 bps to 4.17%, though later pared the gains, Bloomberg reports.

Stocks are also victims of the selloff: Global equities have shed USD 6 tn since the war started. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 dropped more than 5% in a single day, the business information service reported elsewhere. The drop was relatively contained in the US, with the S&P 500 falling 0.6% on Friday — but the outlook isn’t looking good. JPMorgan has turned “tactically bearish” on US stocks, while veteran strategist Ed Yardeni assigned the S&P 500 a market meltdown probability of 35%, up from 20% earlier.

So what hedges are proving safe? Goldman Sachs Asset Management has added non-linear downside protection — think protective puts and options — and credit hedges, while Invesco is steering investors toward commodities routed through the Strait of Hormuz — aluminum and grains included — as shipping risk becomes an investable theme.

Currencies are snapping back to instinct: Bloomberg’s USD index is near a two-month high, despite investors entering the conflict positioned for USD weakness — what Barclays strategist Mitul Kotecha described as a market that had been “hedging America” before running back to the USD when the headlines worsened.

Not every refuge looks old-school, though: Chinese equities are holding up on diversified energy supply, Australia’s currency is drawing support from stronger commodity prices, and some Asian managers are rotating into nuclear-energy and digital-economy names instead of classic defensives.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are starting the week mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei and the Shanghai Composite down and the Hang Seng and South Korea’s Kospi in the green, as investors digest the latest developments in the regional war and fluctuating oil prices. Over on Wall Street, stocks are set to open in the red, with futures down this morning.

TASI	10,887	-0.1% (YTD: +3.8%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,475	-0.1% (YTD: +6.3%)
NomuC	22,439	+0.3% (YTD: -3.7%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	45,927	-1.9% (YTD: +9.8%)
ADX	9,480	-1.6% (YTD: -5.1%)
DFM	5,426	-1.7% (YTD: -10.3%)
S&P 500	6,632	-0.6% (YTD: -3.1%)
FTSE 100	10,261	-0.4% (YTD: +3.3%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,717	-0.6% (YTD: -1.3%)
Brent crude	USD 103.14	+2.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.13	-3.2%
Gold	USD 5,062	-1.3%
BTC	USD 72,513	+1.9% (YTD: -17.2%)
Sukuk/bond market index	916.04	-0.1% (YTD: -0.4%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	150.55	-0.4% (YTD: -0.9%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	27.19	-0.4% (YTD: +81.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.1% yesterday on turnover of SAR 3 bn. The index is up 3.8% YTD.

In the green: Spimaco (+8.1%), Chemanol (+7.4%), and Shaker (+7.2%).

In the red: Modern Mills (-5.4%), SFICO (-5.2%), and Tasnee (-5.0%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 28.4 mn. The index is down 3.7% YTD.

In the green: AME (+17.0%), Edarat (+9.5%), and Alqemam (+7.4%).

In the red: Group Five (-15.2%), Food Gate (-10.0%), and AlRashid Industrial (-9.8%).

CALENDAR

MARCH

18-23 March (Tuesday-Monday): Eid Al Fitr holiday (TBC).

21 March (Saturday): Fanatics Flag Football Classic, Kingdom Arena, Riyadh.

25-27 March (Wednesday-Friday): Future Investment Initiative Institute, Faena Hotel, Miami Beach.

31 March (Tuesday): Zatca’s 23rd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

APRIL

6 April (Monday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

6-7 April (Monday-Tuesday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-16 April (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh

22-23 April (Wednesday-Thursday): The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah.

27-29 April (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

28 April (Tuesday): GC Summit Saudi Arabia, Riyadh.

MAY

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

5-6 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh.

19-21 May (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid Al Adha holiday.

JUNE

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

JULY

6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

12-15 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

NOVEMBER

24-28 November (Tuesday-Saturday): Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun, Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
November: The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh;
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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Inflation cools to 1.7% in February — but a supply shock could be ahead

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GCC could see worst economic slump since Gulf War