IMF slashes our growth prospects as tariffs weigh down on global outlook

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Neom to confirm Aiman Al Mudaifer as CEO?

Good morning. It’s day three of the IMF and World Bank’s spring meetup and the event has been making waves in the international business press with the release of the Fund’s much anticipated World Economic Outlook report.

Leading the headlines are its warnings of a “significant slowdown” in the global economy with a half a percentage point downgrade of the Fund’s global growth projections on the back of tariff uncertainty and disruption.

** We’ve picked apart the report’s forecasts for Saudi Arabia in the news well below — and if that isn’t enough for you, we’ve also got a rundown of its outlook on the global economy in today’s Planet Finance section.

The Saudi delegation: Our Finance Minster Mohammed Al Jadaan and Sama Governor Ayman Al Sayari are to join the G-20 finance meetings. The Saudi delegation also includes officials from the Saudi Fund for Development, the National Debt Management Center, and the Zakat, Tax, and Customs Authority. You can check out the full schedule on the event’sofficialwebsite.

BUT FIRST- Would you like to have lunch with us on Monday, 5 May? If so, hit reply to this email to let us know you’re like to be considered and tell us a little bit about yourself and what you do as a professional.

Wait, lunch? Yes, lunch. We’re inviting a small group of readers to join us to talk over where the economy and business climate stand now and where they’re heading through 2030. Expect good food, good company, and frank talk about what we are convinced is the most exciting business opportunity in the world.

Seating is strictly limited and the gathering is invitation-only. The gathering will take place under Chatham House rules. We’ll be in touch over the course of the next week with the folks we’re inviting to drop them the details.

WEATHER- Winds will sweep through Riyadh and Madinah, while Makkah remains cloudy.

Riyadh: 38°C daytime / 26°C overnight
Makkah: 41°C daytime / 28°C overnight
Madinah: 41°C daytime / 28°C overnight

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Saudi Arabia is set to confirm Aiman Al Mudaifer as the new CEO of Neom, Reuters reported, citing two sources it said are in the know. Mudaifer has been serving as acting CEO since November, following the departure of Nadhmi Al Nasr, and is expected to take the role officially in the coming weeks. He previously led the PIF’s local real estate and infrastructure investments and has been closely involved in Neom’s development.

His appointment signals tighter oversight by the Public Investment Fund, which is under pressure to manage spending more carefully. Analysts say tighter oversight is needed to ensure Neom’s plans stay on track as the kingdom grapples with falling oil prices and pressure to prioritize spending.

Coffee chain Half Million and biscuit-maker Deemah are among the latest Saudi firms to sound out banks for an IPO on Tadawul, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. This comes amid a broader wave of F&B players looking to hit the market — including Barns and Hashi Basha — as the Kingdom’s push to diversify consumer spending away from oil gains traction.

The rush to list follows a sharp rise in discretionary spending, as the domestic entertainment and dining sectors expand, the business news service reports.

BUT- The IPO window may not be as forgiving as before: Pundits point to pressure on consumer incomes and persistent low oil prices as potential headwinds.

Social Development Bank (SDB) plans to double the number of entrepreneurs it supports to c. 10k and open four new branches by the end of next year to support its expansion, CEO Sultan Al Hamidi told Asharq Business. The expansion will enable the bank to increase SME finance while repositioning branches to act as business incubators, accelerators, and co-working spaces to provide clients with financing, training, and business development support, he added.

REMEMBER- SDB handed out SAR 1.7 bn in loans during 1Q 2025. A total of 1.8k small and large businesses took facilities worth SAR 505 mn, while the remaining SAR 1.2 bn went to support some 20k entrepreneurs.

The Kingdom is set to maintain its lead in the global Islamic finance market this year, with projects tied to the government’s wide-reaching diversification plans expected to generate sustained demand for shariah-compliant financing, according to an S&P Global report. The rating agency’s bullish outlook depends largely on the Kingdom’s ability to refinance at scale, especially through the international sukuk markets. Residential mortgage-backed securities could also give the domestic sukuk market a boost, S&P added.

IN CONTEXT- The global rating agency revised its oil price assumption downward to USD 65 a barrel for the rest of 2025 — a level that still supports growth but adds pressure to fiscal buffers across the GCC. The global Islamic finance market is on track to grow by 9-10%, with global sukuk issuances forecast to hit USD 190-200 bn this year.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Consumer spending via point-of-sale (PoS) transactions in the Kingdom dropped 6.9% w-o-w in the week ending Saturday, 19 April to c. SAR 11.4 bn, according to the Saudi Central Bank’s report (pdf). The number of weekly transactions also fell by 3.4% w-o-w to 202 mn.

The details: Restaurants and cafes made up the biggest chunk of spending in terms of value during the week, however, they dipped 4.6 w-o-w to some SAR 1.7 bn. The figure nearly matched food and beverage, which dropped by 9.3% w-o-w. PoS transactions on education posted the steepest dip with a 35.2 decline w-o-w to SAR 166.4 mn after jumping 2413% w-o-w to SAR 256.9 mn in the previous week as students returned back to schools after Eid El Fitr holiday.

Riyadh once again had the highest value of PoS transactions at SAR 4.1 bn, followed by Jeddah at SAR 1.7 bn.

#2- The Saudi Export-Import Bank’s lending more than doubled in 2024, rising 103.2% y-o-y to SAR 33.5 bn from SAR 16.5 bn amid its efforts to support non-oil exports growth in the Kingdom, it said in a post on X.

The bank’s credit facilities that were allocated to non-oil exports rose 70% y-o-y to SAR 11.96 bn in 2024, with around 7.66% of the bank’s total credit facilities distributed between financing and providing ins. to Saudi non-oil products exports, state news agency SPA reports. The total value of exports covered by credit ins. also rose 127% y-o-y over the same period to SAR 21.6 bn, up from SAR 9.5 bn.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The general theme in the news today? Backtracking — whether it’s US President Donald Trump denying plans to sack US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (and hinting at lower tariffs on China), Elon Musk saying he’ll take a step back from the US government to focus on Tesla, or Russian President Vladimir Putin saying he is prepared to halt his invasion of certain parts of Ukraine.

US stock futures reacted positively to Trump’s shift in tone on both Powell and China, rallying on the news as the USD also pared some of its losses following an earlier slump on Monday. (Reuters | Financial Times | WSJ)

Also rallying yesterday were Tesla’s shares, after Musk said he’ll be “significantly scaling back” his work with the government as he wraps up preparations for the Department of Government Efficiency (aka DOGE) to focus on Tesla, which reported a 9% y-o-y drop in revenues in its 1Q 2025 earnings report. Net income also plummeted 71% from a year earlier on the back of lower average selling prices and a need for manufacturing upgrades, according to Musk. (Financial Times | CNBC | Bloomberg | Reuters | WSJ)

Over in Russia and Ukraine, Putin reportedly said he’d be willing to give up parts of Ukraine that it does not control in return for an agreement with the US that could see it acknowledge Russia’s de facto control over Crimea, which was seized by Russia in 2014. Ukrainian officials are set to meet with representatives from the EU and the US in London later today to discuss the proposal. (FT)

IMF slashes the Kingdom’s growth prospects

IMF lowers its expectations for the Kingdom’s growth prospects: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its growth forecast for Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth during 2025 by 0.3 percentage points to 3% and for 2026 by 0.4 percentage points to 3.7%, down from its January estimates, the fund said in its World Economic Outlook report (pdf).

The regional outlook is not quite promising either: The fund sees growth in the MENA region reaching 2.6% in 2025, a downward revision of 0.8 percentage points. Growth is expected to accelerate to 3.4% in 2026, albeit down from previous forecasts at 4.1%.

Slower oil production recovery could be the culprit: The fund observed “a more gradual resumption of oil production” than previously predicted, coupled with “persistent spillovers from conflicts, and slower-than-expected progress on structural reforms,” which the fund cites as its reasons for lowering its growth forecast for the Middle East and Central Asia at large.

REMEMBER- GDP grew 1.3% y-o-y in 2024, exceeding the government’s 0.8% forecast, while 4Q growth hit 4.5% y-o-y GDP, the fastest in two years, supported by oil and non-oil activity. The Finance Ministry expected GDP growth of 4.6% in 2025, 3.5% in 2026, and 4.7% in 2027, fueled by non-oil expansion, job creation, and foreign investment.

Inflation forecasts inched higher: Inflation in Saudi Arabia is set to come in at 2% both in 2025 and in 2026, up from 1.7% in 2024, the report reads. The prediction for this year marks a a slight upwards revision of 0.1 percentage point from the fund’s previous forecast in December.

MEANWHILE- Saudi Arabia’s current account balance is expected to see a deficit of 4% of GDP this year, before reaching 4.3% of GDP in 2026, down from a deficit of 0.5% in 2024. This prediction is lower than the fund’s previous forecast, which saw the current account balance narrowing to -1.8% of GDP in 2025.

Oil prices to see a dramatic drop: The fund expects oil prices to decrease by 15.5% in 2025, bringing the average price per barrel to around USD 66.94. The decline in prices is expected to continue through to 2026 — albeit at a slower pace, with the fund predicting oil prices to drop to USD 62.38 per barrel, down from an average price of USD 79.17 per barrel in 2024.

The drop in oil prices could hit the Kingdom’s budget quite hard: Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit could widen to USD 67 bn (SAR 251.5 bn), or over 6% of GDP, in a scenario where oil prices average USD 62 per barrel in 2025, Goldman Sachs economist Farouk Soussa said earlier this month. The government needed oil at USD 93 a barrel to balance last year’s budget, according to Bloomberg Economics’ Chief Emerging Markets Economist Ziad Daoud.

The fund’s forecasts are mainly driven by a slowdown in global demand, due to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the subsequent escalation of the trade war between Washington and Beijing.

** We’ve got a rundown of the outlook on the global economy in today’s Planet Finance, below.

United Carton Industries sets IPO price range ahead of Tadawul listing

UnitedCarton Industries (UCIC) is guiding on an indicative price range of SAR 47-50 per share for its upcoming Tadawul IPO, according to a statement (pdf). The top of the range would allow the firm to raise SAR 600 mn in proceeds and would give it a market cap of SAR 2 bn at listing, according to our calculations. The final offering price will be determined after the book-building process is completed on Monday.

REFRESHER- UCIC is taking a 30% stake to the main market in a secondary offering, whereby selling shareholders will rake in all of the proceeds from the sale after deducting SAR 24 mn in offering-related expenses. The IPO will see three of UCIC’s five substantial shareholders sell down their position to a combined 70% stake, down from 100%. Their shares will remain on lock-up for a period of six months from the first day of trading.

What’s next? Institutions will be able to submit their orders until Monday, 28 April. For retail investors, a two-day subscription window will open on Monday, 12 May, with the final allocation of shares slated for Sunday, 18 May.

The size band: Institutional investors will have a minimum subscription limit of 100k shares and a maximum of about 1.99 mn shares each, while a retail investor can subscribe to anywhere between 10 and 400k shares.

ADVISORS- Al Rajhi Capital is quarterbacking the transaction as lead manager, financial advisor, bookrunner, and underwriter, with Stat Law Firm providing counsel. Meanwhile, Gibson, Dunn and Crutcher Law Firm is acting as counsel for Al Rajhi Capital.

Saudi companies grab lion’s share of GCC corporate earnings in 4Q 2024 -Kamco

Saudi-listed companies have continued to surpass their Gulf peers in 4Q 2024, reporting 3.1% y-o-y growth in net income at USD 34.8 bn, according to Kamco Invest’s GCC Corporate Earnings report (pdf).

The drivers: A sharp decline in the energy sector’s aggregate earnings was offset by healthy growth in the banking, telecom, and food sectors, helping Saudi companies account for some 61% of the GCC total.

The breakdown: The energy sector saw a 15.4% y-o-y decline in aggregate earnings during the quarter, driven by Aramco’s net income dropping 15.7% y-o-y to USD 24.1 bn. On the other hand, the banking sector’s aggregate earnings rose 20.4% y-o-y to USD 5.6 bn in 4Q 2024, with Saudi National Bank reporting a net income of USD 1.5 bn (+11.7%).

Biggest gainers: The telecom sector managed to lead the gains with a five-fold rise in its aggregate earnings to USD 3.9 bn during the first quarter. The food, beverages, and tobacco sector also logged an eight-fold increase at USD 2.8 bn.

Full-year snapshot: Saudi companies closed FY 2024 with aggregate earnings down 3.2% y-o-y at USD 150.9 bn. The banking and telecom sectors offset the steep decline in the energy sector.

Sector of the year: The telecom sector’s aggregate earnings rose 69.8% y-o-y to USD 7.6 bn in FY 2024. STC led the gains with an 85.7% increase at USD 6.6 bn, followed by Mobily at USD 828 mn (+39.2%). Meanwhile, Zain KSA’s income dropped 52.9% to USD 158.9 mn.

THE REGIONAL PICTURE-

Aggregate net income for GCC-listed companies hit USD 57.3 bn in 4Q 2024, up 2.0% y-o-y and marking a three-quarter low. The energy sector was the biggest drag, with earnings falling 16.6% y-o-y to USD 25.7 bn, while the utilities sector swung to a USD 1.3 bn net loss, driven by deeper losses at Saudi Electricity Co.

Oman led the region in 4Q earnings growth, going up 83.4% y-o-y, followed by Bahrain (+43.2%) and Kuwait (+37.1%). Dubai’s 20.1% gain outpaced both Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

For the full year, GCC-listed companies recorded USD 241.1 bn in net income, down 1.4% from 2023. The steepest declines came from the energy, utilities, and food and beverage sectors. Banking was the region’s strongest performer, with earnings for the year rising 10.3% to a record USD 60.1 bn. Telecoms followed, with a 171% y-o-y increase.

FinMin closes SAR 3.71 bn April sukuk issuance

The Finance Ministry raised an additional SAR 3.71 bn from fixed-income investors in the latest April sukuk issuance, marking a 40.5% increase compared to March’s SAR 2.64 bn, according to a National Debt Management Center s tatement (pdf). This is part of the government’s SAR-denominated sukuk program.

The April issuance was structured in four tranches:

A four-year tranche valued at SAR 1.31 bn with a 4.81% yield
A seven-year tranche valued at SAR 80 mn with a 4.85% yield
A 11-year tranche valued at SAR 765 mn with a 5.01% yield
A 14-year tranche valued at SAR 1.55 bn with a 5.11% yield

A glimpse into the Kingdom’s debt landscape: As of March 2025, Saudi Arabia’s total direct debt reached SAR 1.33 tn (USD 354.3 bn) — SAR 797.1 bn (USD 231.6 bn) in domestic debt and SAR 531.7 bn (USD 141.8 bn) in external debt, according to NDMC’s data. This marks a 9.3% increase from the previous year, highlighting the ongoing expansion of the Kingdom’s debt portfolio.

Balubaid’s SEC wraps up Nomu offering

The ServiceEquipment Company’s (SEC) Nomu offering was 1.5x covered, according to a filing to Tadawul. Final allocations were completed yesterday, with Yaqeen Capital now working with Tadawul to wrap up listing formalities and set a trading date. SEC is the automotive maintenance unit of Saudi conglomerate Balubaid Group.

About the offering: The Jeddah-based company is taking a 30% stake to market at SAR 84 a piece in a secondary share offering, where it is set to raise up to SAR 60.5 mn and boast a market cap of SAR 201.6 mn at listing.

ADVISORS- Yaqeen Capital is quarterbacking the transaction as financial advisor and lead manager, with RSM acting as accountant. Receiving agents include Derayah Financial, Alinma Investment, Al Rajhi Capital, SNB Capital, BSF Capital, Riyad Capital, ANB Capital, Alistithmar Capital, Albilad Capital, AlJazira Capital, GIB Capital, Alkhabeer Capital, SAB Invest, and Sahm Capital.

Saudi Arabia leads MENA VC surge as region defies global slowdown

Saudi led the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in venture capital funding in 1Q 2025, attracting USD 391 mn — over half of the region’s total — and topping global emerging markets, Bloomberg reports, citing Magnitt data.

The drivers: The Kingdom secured the largest share in both capital raised and agreement count thanks to a surge in Series A and B rounds, strong state-backed investment, and a maturing startup ecosystem positioning it as the “beating heart” of MENA’s venture ecosystem, Magnitt’s 1Q 2025 MENA Venture Investment Report reads.

MENA bucks the trend: VC investment in MENA climbed 58% y-o-y in 1Q to USD 678 mn — its strongest quarterly figure since late 2023 — driven by interest rate cuts, active sovereign wealth funds, and startup-focused events in Riyadh and Dubai. The strong growth comes amid a broader slowdown across emerging markets.

Smaller tickets made up the bulk: Small rounds (below USD 100 mn) accounted for USD 518 mn of the region’s total funding in 1Q, rising from USD 298 mn in the same period last year. Meanwhile, mega transactions (above USD 100 mn) rose to USD 160 mn.

The standout sectors: Fintech led the pack, capturing 57% of all funding — driven by homegrown Tabby’s USD 160 mn series E round. Enterprise software and edtech also saw strong growth, while e-commerce and retail experienced a slowdown.

AI investment also begun to pick up some rhythm in the region, accounting for 5% of total investment but still well below the 37% global average, said Magnitt CEO Philip Bahoshy.

Meet the investors: STV, Hassana Investment, Blue Pool Capital, and Wellington Management were the region’s most active VC players, closing some of the largest transactions. STV participated in Buildnow’s USD 9.7 mn investment round, Calo’s USD 25 mn series B round, and Tabby’s USD 160 mn series E round. Still, foreign support remained a key factor, as it accounted for roughly 40% of total investment, Bahoshy said.

ON THE M&A FRONT- The M&A sector hit a quarterly peak with an all-time high of 21 regional agreements, led by Egypt and the UAE with nine agreements each.

Looking ahead: While MENA’s momentum remains strong, Bahoshy warned that declining oil prices and market uncertainty are “affecting the whole funnel,” dampening investor confidence and potentially impacting LP capital deployment, VC decision-making, startup fundraising, and IPOs. However, long-term prospects remain robust, supported by government backing and tech sector growth.

ICYMI- A recap of last year: Despite a 44% y-o-y drop, Saudi led MENA with USD 750 mn in VC funding in 2024 (almost half the regional total) and saw the largest increase in transaction numbers (up 16% y-o-y at 178), according to Magnitt’s 2024 venture investment report. PIF-backed Sanabil was the top investor with USD 59 mn, and Saudi e-commerce firm Salla secured the largest transaction at USD 130 mn.

SNB sees “stellar” earnings this quarter

SAUDI NATIONAL BANK-

Saudi National Bank (SNB) saw its net income increase 19.5% y-o-y to SAR 6 bn in 1Q 2025 — its highest quarterly net income on record — driven by a 7.6% rise in total operating income and a 16.7% decrease in operating expenses, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. SNB’s total income from financing grew 2.6% y-o-y to SAR 10.9 bn, while its total income from investments went up 16.8% y-o-y to SAR 3.4 bn.

Shattering expectations: The earnings beat analyst estimates across operating income and EPS metrics, with CI Capital praising the results as “stellar,” Bloomberg reports. The results come amid the rollout of a new three-year strategy under CEO Tareq Abdulrahman Al Sadhan to boost operations and stock performance.

AL RAJHI BANK-

Al Rajhi Bank’s net income rose 34.1% y-o-y to SAR 5.9 bn in 1Q 2025, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Total income from financing grew 18.6% y-o-y to SAR 10.93 bn, while total income from investments climbed 40.9% y-o-y to SAR 2.24 bn.

ALDREES PETROLEUM AND TRANSPORT SERVICES-

Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services posted a 29.3% y-o-y increase in net income to SAR 100.1 mn in 1Q 2025, supported by solid performance across its Petrol and Transport divisions, increased income from deposits and Sukuk, and stronger returns from a JV, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul.

MEANWHILE- Revenue rose 33.8% y-o-y to SAR 5.8 bn over the same period, driven by an expanded station network and improved transport rates.

The golden age of boxing is back thanks to Riyadh’s deep pockets

Saudi money bringing back Boxing’s Vegas heyday era to Riyadh made headlines in the international press, with World Boxing Council President Mauricio Sulaiman telling Bloomberg that the Kingdom is driving a new golden age for the sport.

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Sulaiman was attending the Riyadh Season WBC Boxing Grand Prix, which for him was reminiscent of the sport’s glamorous era of Muhammad Ali and George Foreman. The Kingdom has hosted fights between some of the biggest names of the sport in the past two years, including Tyson vs. Oleksander last year, with 1.5 mn pay-per-view buys, rivaling the iconic Tyson-Holyfield rematch in 1997 with almost two mn pay-per-view buys.

Discussions are underway on tournaments, global events, and potentially a boxing museum, Sulaiman added. While still in the early stages, he sees Saudi investment as a potential unifier for the sport’s fragmented landscape. The PIF is partnering with TKO Group Holdings to create a new boxing promoter with plans to host its first event next year, Bloomberg reported separately.

The catch lies in whether the kingdom can keep the funds flowing with budget priorities shifting. Despite this, Sulaiman remains bullish. “The way it looks right now, the answer is yes,” he said.

Other promoters can’t compete with Saudi-sized purses: Established promoters are under pressure to stay competitive as the Kingdom’s deep pockets push them to boost ticket revenue or secure streaming and partnership agreements to stay afloat, Sulaiman said.

Private tourism sector to localize 41 professions amid Saudization push tourism sector

SAUDIZATION-

Saudi Arabia will implement a three-phase plan to localize 41 professions within the private tourism sector in a bid to increase Saudi professionals in the labor market, according to a procedural guide (pdf) published by the HR and Social Development Ministry.

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The first phase, commencing on 22 April 2026, will see roles such as central operator and hotel receptionist subject to a 100% Saudization rate. A 70% Saudization rate will then apply to positions like tour guide and hotel quality control specialist, followed by a 50% rate for roles such as tourism development specialist and tourism organizer.

What about the second and third phases? The second phase, starting on 3 January 2027, will see chef positions requiring a 30% Saudization rate, while the last phase will see a host of managerial professions requiring a rate of 50%, starting on 2 January 2028.

REMEMBER- The Ministry announced new directives in January to raise Saudization rates across 269 professions in sectors including engineering (30% for 184 roles), dentistry (45% starting July this year), accounting (40% for firms with over five accountants by October this year), and pharma (35% for community pharmacies, 65% for hospital roles, and 55% for other pharma-related jobs, all effective from July 2025).

M&A WATCH-

Tadawul-listed conglomerate Amwaj International bought an 18% stake in Dubai luxury developer Cledor for an undisclosed sum, according to a joint statement. The investment — which marks Amwaj’s first venture into the Emirati market — values Cledor at USD 100 mn. Cledor will manage Amwaj’s upcoming projects in the UAE as part of the agreement.

What’s the gain for each side? The acquisition gives Amwaj operational exposure in Dubai and a vehicle to deploy capital in a high-growth segment. For Cledor, the investment provides a runway to cover operating costs, access to Amwaj’s procurement and talent network, and institutional backing.

INFRASTRUCTURE-

The National Water Company (NWC) completed the implementation of two major water supply projects in the Riyadh Province, spanning over 26km at a total cost exceeding SAR 140 mn, according to a statement. These projects aim to boost water capacity by 146k cubic meters per day, improving water supply to the city of Diriyah and the Diriyah Gate project, as well as districts in Riyadh, including Hittin, Al Nakheel, and Al Khuzama.

REMEMBER- NWC broke ground on 30 new water and sewage projects across Riyadh valued at around SAR 2 bn earlier this month. The projects included around 1.9k km of new pipelines across the city of Riyadh and neighboring governorates, including Diriyah.

DEBT WATCH-

Renewables giant ACWA Power secured a seven-year SAR 750 mn loan fromAlinmaBank to finance the construction of its new headquarters in Riyadh, according to a statement.

IMF cuts growth forecasts as tariffs hit global economy

IMF forecasts lower global growth this year: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global growth to log 2.8% in 2025, down 0.5 percentage point from previous estimates, it said in its World Economic Outlook report (pdf). Growth is expected to edge up to 3.0% in 2026, though this remains below the IMF’s earlier projections at 3.3%.

We all know the culprit: The revision is a direct consequence of “new trade measures and their indirect effects through trade linkage spillovers, heightened uncertainty, and deteriorating sentiment.”

Major economies projected to take a hit: The US is now expected to grow 1.8% in 2025, down nearly one percentage point from the previous forecast, as “greater policy uncertainty, trade tensions, and a softer demand outlook” weigh down on consumption. Meanwhile, Japan’s growth was cut by 0.5 points to 0.6%, with tariff concerns expected to offset gains in private consumption and disposable income. The Fund also downgraded its forecast for Canada’s growth by 0.6 percentage points, and for the UK by half a point.

China and India will bear the brunt too: China’s 2025 outlook was cut by 0.6 points to 4.0%, as trade restrictions “offset the stronger carryover from 2024 and fiscal expansion in the budget.” The following year comes with a similar downward revision and growth forecast. Meanwhile, India’s growth was trimmed by 0.3 percentage points to 6.2%.

Across the Atlantic: Growth in the Eurozone is expected to decline “slightly” to 0.8% this year. Still, the IMF projects a stronger growth of 1.2% next year, driven by stronger consumption and rising wages as “debt brake” reforms in Germany spur growth.

Spain is a rare bright spot in the Fund’s updated forecasts, with an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points, leaving 2025 growth forecast at 2.5%. This reflects “a large carryover from better-than-expected outturns in 2024 and reconstruction activity following floods,” the IMF said.

Tariff clouds may turn into showers: Recent waves of US tariffs and the resulting retaliatory measures by China, Canada, and the EU have created “unprecedented” policy uncertainty. This is dragging down global trade volumes, which are now expected to grow just 1.7% in 2025 — a full 1.5 percentage points lower than previous expectations.

A new era: “The increased uncertainty and tightening of financial conditions could well dominate the short term, weighing on economic activity, as reflected in the sharp decline in oil prices,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in a blog post. Growth prospects could see immediate improvement, however, if countries managed to move past differences and forge new trade agreements, Gourinchas added.

The inflation outlook Global inflation is expected to decline the next two years, hovering at around 4.3% in 2025 (revised slightly upwards) and at 3.6% in 2026.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are in the green this morning, after comments from the Donald sparked hopes for tariff de-escalation. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is leading gains with a 1.8% increase, followed by Japan’s Nikkei at 1.7%. Wall Street futures are also inching up following strong gains yesterday, after Trump denied plans to remove the Fed chief.

TASI	11,586	+0.3% (YTD: -3.7%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,475	+0.6% (YTD: -2.3%)
NomuC	28,282	-1.2% (YTD: -10.2%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	5.0% repo	4.5% reverse repo
EGX30	30,844	-0.7% (YTD: +3.7%)
ADX	9,257	-0.2% (YTD: -1.7%)
DFM	5,134	+0.6% (YTD: -0.5%)
S&P 500	5288	+2.5% (YTD: -10.1%)
FTSE 100	8329	+0.6% (YTD: +1.9%)
Euro Stoxx 50	4961	+0.5% (YTD: +1.3%)
Brent crude	USD 67.94	+0.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.05	+1.3%
Gold	USD 3348.90	-2.1%
BTC	USD 92,859.30	+6.5% (YTD: -0.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.5% yesterday on turnover of SAR 5.4 bn. The index is down 3.7% YTD.

In the green: SFICO (+10.0%), Aljazira Reit (+9.9%) and Alistithmar Reit (+9.9%).

In the red: Jahez (-3.3%), Alandalus (-3.2%) and ACIG (-3.0%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 1.2% yesterday on turnover of SAR 26.7 mn. The index is down 10.2% YTD.

In the green: Dar Almarkabah (+20.9%), Mayar (+9.7%) and Aljouf Water (+6.0%).

In the red: NBM (-9.4%), Alrazi (-9.1%) and Horizon Food (-9.0%).

Modi visits Jeddah to boost strategic ties

Modi lands in Jeddah: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Jeddah yesterday for a two-day visit to hold talks with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, visit Indian factory workers, and co-chair a high-level meeting on bilateral cooperation. The visit comes at a time of global trade tensions and growing efforts by both countries to deepen economic and strategic ties.

Modi is likely to push for fresh Saudi investments in India, including in the energy and defense sectors, following past pledges of up to USD 100 bn. Cooperation in oil and petrochemicals remains key, but both sides are also exploring new areas like renewables, healthcare, and digital infrastructure.

The visit seems to have been cut short: The prime minister left Jeddah early this morning, with Indian news outlets citing a deadly terrorist attack in Kashmir — the worst in over a year — as the reason for the early departure.

CALENDAR

APRIL

17-23 April (Thursday-Wednesday): Saudi Film Festival, Dhahran.

21-26 April (Monday-Saturday): World Bank Spring Meetings, Washington.

23-25 April (Wednesday-Friday): Construction and Real Estate Development Exhibition, Jazan.

25 April-3 May (Friday-Saturday): AFC Champions League Elite Finals, Jeddah.

27-28 April (Sunday-Monday): First Saudi Statistics Forum, Movenpick Hotel and Residences, Riyadh

28 April- 30 April (Monday-Wednesday): Automechanika Riyadh, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh.

29 April (Tuesday): Rules for special purpose entities (SPEs) feedback deadline.

MAY

May: World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Global Awards 2025 announces finalists.

3 May (Saturday): Canelo Alvarez vs William Scull, Anb Arena, Riyadh.

4-8 May (Sunday-Thursday): Adeer Real Estate Nomu IPO offering period.

5 May (Monday): Opec+ meeting.

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

9 May (Friday): PFL Mena Season 2 Kick-off.

11-13 May (Sunday-Tuesday): Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah, Riyadh.

12-14 May (Monday-Wednesday): 2025 Saudi Giga projects Summit, Riyadh.

12-15 May (Monday-Thursday): Saudi Smart Manufacturing, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

23 May (Friday): Guns N’ Roses Show, Riyadh.

29 May (Thursday): 2024-2025 academic year ends.

JUNE

4-9 June (Wednesday-Monday): Hajj.

6-10 June (Friday-Tuesday): Eid Al Adha.

17-18 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

24-25 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): Tech-ecO-System Summit (ToSS), Riyadh.

30 June (Monday): Cancellation of Fines and Exemption of Financial Penalties Initiative by the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (Zatca) deadline.

JULY

July (Second week): World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Global Awards 2025 awards ceremony, Geneva.

7 July-24 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

29-30 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

31 July (Thursday): Deadline for companies with SAR 2.5 mn or more in 2022/2023 revenues to integrate e-invoicing solutions with Fatoora.

AUGUST

7 July-24 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

5-17 August (Tuesday-Sunday): 2025 Fiba Asia Cup, Jeddah.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Monday-Wednesday): Money 20/20 Middle East, Riyadh.

17-18 September (Wednesday-Thursday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

23 September (Tuesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

7-8 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global EV & Mobility Technology (GEMTECH) Forum, Riyadh.

17 October (Friday): Saudization for private healthcare roles enters its second phase.

22-23 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Private Capital Forum, Riyadh.

25-27 December (Saturday-Monday): The Fortune Global Forum 2025, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

3-9 November (Monday- Sunday): WTA Tour Finals, Riyadh.

23-26 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday) The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh.

27-30 November (Thursday-Sunday): World Rally Championship Saudi Arabia 2025, Jeddah.

30 November (Sunday): Zatca 21st E-invocing integration wave deadline.

DECEMBER

1-4 December (Wednesday-Saturday): International Conference on Nuclear and Radiological Emergencies, Riyadh.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

31 December (Wednesday): Zatca 22st E-invocing integration wave deadline.

2026

UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

2027

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.

Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

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