Good morning, wonderful people. The scorching heat is starting to hit the Kingdom in full force, as we (almost) enter July. Business is showing no signs of slowing, however, with a smart food city unveiled in Najran, Dar Al Arkan closing its USD 750 mn sukuk issuance, and Tesla inaugurating its first center in Saudi Arabia.

The big story today: The International Monetary Fund revised our 2025 growth forecast upwards, citing strong domestic demand from government-led projects and the planned phase-out of Opec+ oil production cuts. Let’s dive in.

WEATHER- Riyadh is expected to see a high of 45°C and a low of 30°C today, while Jeddah’s mercury will go as high as 40°C and as low as 29°C. Makkah will see a 42°C high and 33°C low.

PSAs-

#1- Taxpayers will benefit from fine cancellation and penalty exemption for six more months, after the Zakat, Tax, and Customs Authority’s (Zatca) extended the deadline for the Cancellation of Fines and Exemption of Financial Penalties Initiative for an additional six months starting 1 July and ending 31 December, according to a statement on Friday.

ALSO- The next round of e-invoicing is here: Companies that had over SAR 750k in revenues subjected to VAT in 2022, 2023, or 2024 have until 31 March 2026 to integrate their e-invoicing solutions with Zatca’s Fatoora platform, according to a separate statement on Friday. This is the latest phase of an e-invoicing rollout that began in late 2021.

#2- Property owners in Madinah and the Eastern Province need to register their properties between 13 July and 16 October online via the Real Estate Registry website, the Real Estate General Authority said in a statement on Thursday. The newest phase of the authority’s real estate registration drive includes 40.5k properties across 21 neighborhoods in Madinah and 17.5k properties across 41 neighborhoods in the Eastern Province.

#3- Visitors can now extend their expired visit visas — of all types — within a 30-day window that began on 26 June for final departure from the Kingdom, after paying the applicable fines and fees, the General Directorate of Passports (Jawazat) said on X on Friday. The initiative is available via the Absher platform.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Acwa Power is set to seal a contract to build two 1-GW solar plants in the Turkish provinces of Karaman and Sivas, with an additional 3 GW of renewables capacity on the table, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar told Bloomberg last Tuesday. The financial details remain undisclosed

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What we know: The contract — set to be signed in a few days — will fix the electricity purchase price at a new all-time low, breaking the USD 0.0325 per kW/h record, Bayraktar said. The renewables giant plans to invest some USD 5 bn in energy and other sectors in Turkey, as the country seeks to generate 120 GW from renewables by 2035, Bloomberg reported earlier in October, citing national Turkish media.

Acwa Power has been on an expansion roll: The PIF-backed giant established new projects worth SAR 34 bn in 2024, mainly in the Kingdom, as well as in Egypt, China, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan.

OIL WATCH-

Opec+ is expected to announce its fourth production hike of the year at its upcoming 6 July meeting, adding 411k barrels per day (bbl / d) for August as it continues to claw back market share, four unnamed delegates told Reuters. While analysts anticipate the 411k bbl / d increase to proceed, some sources suggest a larger hike could be discussed at the meeting.

IN CONTEXT- The expected hike is part of a significant policy reversal in 2025, with the Kingdom unwinding 2.2 mn bbl / d of previous voluntary cuts. The strategy aims to reclaim market share lost to non-member producers, like the US, and to satisfy rising global demand. If approved, the incoming production hike could see the total output so far this year climb to 1.78 mn bbl / d.

Putin weighs in: Production increases are aligned with the group’s agreements and are a direct response to market needs, Reuters quoted Russian President Vladimir Putin as saying during a televised meeting. “The volumes of crude oil and oil products consumed in the world are rising due to the growth of the economy itself,” he said. “Production is increasing only in the volume that we agreed upon within the framework of Opec+, and it is designed for increasing demand, especially in the summer,” he added.

Volatility in the backdrop: The decision may be complicated by recent market volatility and geopolitical factors, including the potential increased Iranian supply. Oil prices swung to USD 68 a barrel on Friday after the Iran-Israel ceasefire calmed supply worries. This comes after a five-month high of over USD 81 a barrel on 23 June, which was registered following the US strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

SPORTS-

Cristiano Ronaldo signed a two-year contract extension with Al Nassr, keeping him at the Saudi club until 2027, Al Nassr said on X last Thursday. The 40-year-old ended speculation about his future with the words “A new chapter begins”, after the club reportedly offered the Portuguese superstar a better contract than the previous contract back in 2023.

While the financial terms of the extension were not officially disclosed, Ronaldo reportedly will earn some EUR 208 mn a year, plus a EUR 28.7 mn signing bonus and a 15% stake in Al Nassr worth over EUR 38 mn, an unnamed source told the Sun.

ICYMI- Al Nassr reportedly offered the world’s highest-paid athlete a “small” equity stake in the club earlier this year as part of his contract extension. Ronaldo scored 93 goals in 105 matches across all competitions since joining the club, although he is yet to snag any Saudi or regional titles.

Bad news for Al Hilal: Captain Salem Al Dawsari will miss the rest of the Club World Cup after suffering a hamstring injury, the club said on X yesterday. He is expected to be out for treatment for four to six weeks, ruling him out of Tuesday’s match against Manchester City. Al Dawsari scored in the team’s 2-0 win over Pachuca on Friday, which helped Al Hilal advance to the knockout phase.

ICYMI-Al Dawsari claimed the AFC Champions League Golden Boot with 10 goals in May, becoming the first Saudi national to claim the title.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

US, G7 reach trade agreement: The US and G7 members have agreed to create a “side-by-side solution,” under which US companies would be exempt from parts of the global minimum tax agreement. In return, Washington will scrap a retaliatory tax provision in Trump’s tax and spending bill, according to a statement from the US Treasury. The new “side-by-side” system recognizes existing US minimum tax laws and aims to stabilize the global tax framework.

Providing certainty and stability: The UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves welcomed the agreement, saying that it provides “much-needed certainty and stability” for UK companies that had feared substantial tax hikes. The agreement follows US President Donald Trump’s January executive order withdrawing the US from the Biden-era global minimum tax deal and threatening retaliatory taxes on countries taxing US firms under the 2021 agreement. (Reuters | Bloomberg | New York Times | Financial Times)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Metropolis Madinah Conference for civilizational capitals will be held between 24-26 November at Al Madinah’s King Salman International Convention Center, according to a press release published on Thursday. The three-day conference will bring together leaders and decision makers from the public, private, and social sectors to exchange ideas on the world's historic and modern capitals.