Good morning, all. We have made it to the end of another week of a war that is showing few signs of slowing down.
Limited attacks on the Kingdom continued, with air defenses intercepting drones and missiles over Prince Sultan Air Base, the Eastern Province, Hafar Al Batin, and the Empty Quarter, and no reports of direct hits.
There were some hope of a safeguarded return to Hormuz – but it was all but crushed. Three vessels sustained damage yesterday morning off the UAE and Omani coastline from a “suspected but unknown projectile.”
BUT- Trade flows haven't stopped entirely: Iran is still reportedly going ahead with its oil exports to China and India, with “at least nine sanctioned tankers operating in or around the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours,“ according to maritime risk analyst Martin Kelly.
Watch this space
CUSTOMS — The Egyptian Customs Authority has suspended Advanced Cargo Information (ACI) requirements for transit shipments in and out of Gulf states, according to a circular seen by EnterpriseAM. The three-month suspension comes as Egypt works to both funnel Gulf energy out of the country and goods in as the closure of the Hormuz Strait closes the GCC’s main trade connection with the rest of the world.
The details: Indirect transit shipments heading that will then head to ports in Nuweiba, Ain Sokhna, or Safaga to cross the Red Sea into the Gulf, along with Gulf exports that will arrive in Egypt before moving to a third country are now exempt from preregistration to get an Advance Cargo Information Declaration number before arriving on Egyptian shores.
REMEMBER- This isn’t the only state-led effort to position Egypt as a logistics bridge for the GCC amid the Hormuz Strait closure, with the country offering up its Sumed pipeline that runs from Ain Sokhna to Sidi Kerir and 10 additional Red Sea storage facilities to help export our crude from the Mediterranean.
TOURISM — The war is costing the Middle East’s travel and tourism sector USD 600 mn every day in lost international visitor spending, the World Travel and Tourism Council estimates. Aviation hubs including Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Bahrain are facing severe disruptions amid Iranian strikes, direc
How long until things get back on track? Tourism demand can recover in as little as two months after the conflict is over, provided governments and the industry “act quickly to restore traveler confidence,” the council said.
FINANCE — Watheeq Capital received the Capital Market Authority’s approval for the public offering of its Watheeq SAR Murabaha Fund, according to an announcement on Tadawul.
Oil watch
IEA opens the emergency taps: In a turnaround, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said it is releasing 400 mn barrels of oil from the 32 member states’ strategic reserves. The barrels will be released over a set time period and be allocated according to each country’s needs.
We were expecting things to go differently after the G7 and IEA said they are holding off on releasing oil reserves earlier this week. We suspect that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards recently saying it wouldn’t allow “one liter of oil” to leave the region should US-Israeli strikes continue and Brent briefly hitting USD 120 bbl had something to do with the change of heart.
How much difference will 400 mn make? To put it into perspective, pre-war, around 20 mn barrels passed through the Strait of Hormuz everyday, representing around 25% of maritime oil trade. This means that the barrels should cover around 20 days’ worth of supply.
IN CONTEXT- The 400 mn figure is significantly larger than the 182 mn released by the agency when Russia invaded Ukraine, making it the largest move of its kind.
Iran’s message: “Get ready for oil to be USD 200 per barrel,” a military spokesperson said in comments picked up by Reuters.
Over at Opec+, the group said Saudi Arabia had hiked production in February before the war as part of a contingency plan anticipating that a US strike on Iran could disrupt supplies, Reuters reports, citing the group’s monthly report (pdf). The Kingdom’s production came in at 10.9 mn bbl / d during the month. Opec+ had previously agreed to keep output steady through 1Q of this year before raising production by 206k bbl / d in April.
Oil price rises, despite all efforts: Brent crude surged beyond the USD 100 / bbl mark this morning after Oman evacuated all vessels from its key oil export terminal and fresh attacks on two tankers in Iraqi waters, Bloomberg reports. These updates raised fears that we could be looking at supply disruptions that extend beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
Data point
SAR 16.1 bn — that’s the total value of consumer spending via point-of-sale (PoS) in the Kingdom in the week ending 7 March, marking an 11% w-o-w increase and a strong rebound in the first week following the outbreak of the US-Iran war, according to the Saudi Central Bank’s latest weekly report (pdf). The recovery follows a relatively sluggish February, with the number of transactions climbing 7.4% w-o-w to 226.2 mn.
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The big story abroad
Making headlines this morning is the US’ plan to release 172 mn barrels of oil from its emergency reserve, as part of a coordinated effort by the International Energy Agency to curb surging energy prices triggered by the Iran war. The Trump administration will start releasing barrels over the coming weeks and over a 120-day period.
^^ We have more on the IEA’s plan to release 400 mn barrels of oil in the news well, above.
ALSO- Several international outlets are taking note of how much the US has spent on its war on Iran — the bill came to an estimated USD 11.3 bn in the first six days of the campaign on the Islamic Republic.
Meanwhile, on Wall Street: Alternative investment firm Cliffwater has placed a 7% cap on redemptions of its flagship private credit fund, after investors tried to withdraw some 14% of shares — one of the largest requests seen in the market. Withdrawals from the fund came amid growing concerns over the quality of loans linked to software companies whose business models are now under threat from advancements in AI tech. Hours after news of the cap came to light, Morgan Stanley followed suit with similar limits.


