Growing trade surplus

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

View United Real Estate gears up for main market transfer

Good morning, wonderful people, and happy THURSDAY. We’re rounding out the week with a relatively meaty issue to punctuate the Ramadan slowdown that’s taken hold over the past several days.

Leading the news well this morning is the latest development in the leveraged buyout of Electronic Arts (EA), with EA bondholders blocking a debt buyback maneuver that was designed to trim costs, saying the move would cheat them out of a mandatory payout. We also have fresh trade surplus figures, as well as new proposed regulations that could allow the subsidiaries of already-listed companies skip the IPO process to list on the main market directly.

WEATHER- Blowing dust and patches of fog: Active winds will whip up sand across Qassim, Riyadh, and the Eastern Province, stretching into Najran and sweeping through Makkah, Madinah, and Tabuk — especially along the coasts. Meanwhile, fog may form over the highlands of Jazan and Aseer, with misty conditions also possible in parts of Al Jouf and the Northern Borders.

Riyadh: 25°C high / 15°C low;
Jeddah: 29°C high / 23°C low;
Makkah: 31°C high / 23°C low;
Dammam: 26°C high / 14°C low.

Watch this space

CAPITAL MARKETS — View gears up for main market transfer: Nomu-listed developer View United Real Estate is eyeing a move to Tadawul’s main market, after its board signed off on a transition yesterday, according to a bourse filing. The move, subject to regulatory approvals, is a bid for higher liquidity and inclusion in broader indices, shifting the company from a growth play on Nomu to a more mature institutional asset.

Tapping deeper institutional liquidity following a tough 2025 for Nomu: Five parallel market IPOs were pulled last year, and the index shed 26% amid a broader flight to quality. View now joins Alwasail Industrial and Nofoth Food Products, both of which upgraded to Tadawul’s big league last month in a similar move.

REFRESHER- View is currently scaling its Prosperous Riyadh program, which partners with owners of white land to convert tax-liable plots into residential and commercial projects. With SAR 286 mn in recently inked contracts for residential towers in Al Nakheel and elsewhere in the capital, the jump to TASI would give it the capital-markets heft needed to become a large-scale urban developer.

EXPANSION — Zoho to scale up AI infrastructure operations in Saudi + UAE: Indian software firm Zoho plans to develop data centers in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and South Africa, Bloomberg reports, citing the firm’s Middle East and Africa head Hyther Nizam. The expansion to Saudi remains under discussion, while a UAE partnership with Equinix is already in motion.

Why it matters: Zoho is shifting from standard cloud software to local AI infrastructure, aiming to provide faster, regionally hosted services. By working with Equinix rather than US hyperscalers, the company offers a solution for regional firms concerned about data residency and excessive reliance on Western platforms.

The regional expansion is already in progress: The software solutions provider began its expansion into Saudi by obtaining a cloud service provider certification from the Saudi Communication and Information Technology Ministry in December. The certification allows the firm to host restricted government and commercial data. It also previously earmarked AED 100 mn for its UAE expansion, launching data centers in Dubai and Abu Dhabi last month.

OIL + GAS — Saudi tanker demand on the rise: Saudi Arabia’s National Shipping Company (Bahri) — the country’s biggest oil shipper — provisionally chartered at least five supertankers, piling into the spot market as rates rip higher, Bloomberg reports, citing brokers with knowledge of the matter. The ships, tracked by Tankers International and confirmed by brokers, are headed for Asia with Saudi barrels.

It’s a tell: Owners usually only dip into the spot market when their fleets can’t keep up with their own cargoes, and the oil market watches Bahri’s activities closely for clues on Saudi flows. The Kingdom has recently sold condensate from the Jafurah gas project — part of the LFDP — which would liberate domestic crude previously burned for power.

Rates are doing the talking: Middle East-to-China runs flirted with USD 200k per day this week, marking a first since 2020. VLCC earnings are also at their highest in years as geopolitical risk adds a premium, with traders bracing for any disruption tied to US-Iran tension and oil flows via Hormuz.

What’s next? Saudi plans to ship some 8 mn barrels of crude to China next month, after reducing prices to five-year lows — and the freight market is already front-running it.

OIL + GAS — Saudi Arabia is quietly boosting output and shipments just in case a potential US strike on Iran disrupts flows from the Middle East, Reuters reports, citing two sources it says are familiar with the matter. The Kingdom is preemptively raising output now so that if regional flows are suddenly cut, the world isn’t left scrambling. If the dust settles and diplomacy wins out, the taps will be tightened again to stay in line with Opec+ quotas, one of the sources said.

Crude exports are expected to hit a three-year peak this month, having reached 7.3 mn bbl / d so far, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Should the trend prevail for the rest of the month, that would amount to a m-o-m increase of just over 400k bbl / d.

It’s a move we’ve seen before: Last year, Riyadh boosted exports by some 0.5 mn bbl / d and redirected crude to overseas storage when Washington first turned up the heat on Tehran’s nuclear sites. US President Trump hasn’t been shy about the possibility of a strike to force Iran put its nuclear ambitions to rest.

Why the nerves? Iran isn’t a small player — it handles over 3% of global supply. But the real pinch is the Strait of Hormuz. If Tehran decides to retaliate by choking off that narrow passage, it would block 20 mn bbl / d from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar from reaching the global market.

ENERGY — Aramco suspended LPG exports from its Juaymah terminal this week, following structural damage to its propane and butane delivery infrastructure. Aramco canceled all propane and butane deliveries out of Juaymah for the next several weeks.

Data point

SAR 13.9 bn — that’s the total value of consumer spending via point of sale (PoS) in the Kingdom in the week ending 21 February, dropping 9.3% from the previous week, according to Saudi Central Bank data (pdf). The number of transactions also dipped, falling 12.5% to 220.6 mn. The decline was driven by a 28.3% w-o-w drop in the restaurants and cafes sector, followed by education (-26%), and personal care (-23.6%).

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The big story abroad

A single story is dominating headlines this morning: Nvidia’s latest earnings came in above analyst expectations, calming investor fears about a potential AI slowdown. The most valuable company in the world reported record revenues of USD 68.1 bn for the three-month period ending in January, up 73% y-o-y, driven by data center revenues.

Looking ahead: The company penciled in USD 78 bn in sales this quarter, excluding any income from China data centers, as the company remains unsure whether it will be able to do business in the country.

Markets reax: Nvidia shares gained 3% in after-hours trading following the news, pushing Wall Street up. “It’s clear from Nvidia’s latest numbers and [investors’] forecast that concerns about an AI slowdown simply are not showing up yet,” TECHnalysis Research’s Bob O’Donnell told Reuters.

Bondholders call the PIF’s bluff as S&P stalls EA debt maneuver

A bloc of Electronic Arts (EA) bondholders stalled a debt-buyback maneuver orchestrated by the PIF-led consortium taking EA private, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are in the know. Bondholders representing 75% of the 2031 notes and about 90% of the 2051 securities reportedly inked a cooperation agreement to reject a tender offer for USD 1.5 bn of senior unsecured notes, which they claim is designed to cheat them out of a mandatory payout.

What now? The consortium must now decide whether to sweeten the offer closer to the 101% par value or risk a protracted judicial battle that could delay the close of their landmark USD 55 bn acquisition, which is expected between April and June this year.

The defeasance trap

Typically, when a company is bought out in a leveraged buyout, a change of control clause is triggered, forcing the new owners to buy back existing debt at 101% of par (the full value).

The loophole: To avoid this multi-bn-USD bill, the PIF-led group — which includes Silver Lake and Affinity Partners — attempted a workaround maneuver called defeasance. They offered to buy a portfolio of US Treasuries to back the EA bonds, arguing that because the debt was now no-risk, it should be rated investment-grade.

This would have allowed them to retire the debt at a steep markdown, offering just USD 0.92 per USD 1 for the USD 750 mn 1.85% notes due 2031, and USD 0.74 for the USD 750 mn 2.95% notes due 2051. The tender is priced flat to the yield of on-the-run US Treasuries.

The S&P ratings roadblock

S&P upends the strategy: The plan relied on getting a top-tier credit rating for the Treasury-backed bonds to bypass the downgrade trigger. However, the gambit hit a wall last Friday when S&P Global said it would not grant the higher rating, stripping the group of its primary shield.

Bondholders are just digging in for better terms. While the 5% early premium (equivalent to 5 points of par) expired on Tuesday, the offer still stands. “We believe there is a high likelihood that bondholders will receive a better outcome by holding out,” CreditSights analysts wrote.

ADVISORS- JPMorgan is quarterbacking the tender offer as lead manager and consent agent, with Houlihan Lokey and Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld providing financial advice and counsel to the bondholders.

Trade surplus grows

Oil sector growth and a surge in re-exports pushed Saudi Arabia’s merchandise trade surplus up 26.3% y-o-y in 4Q 2025, according to preliminary Gastat data (pdf). Total merchandise exports rose 7.9% y-o-y to reach SAR 300 bn for the quarter, while total imports increased 4.7% y-o-y to SAR 248 bn.

Oil exports continued to lead the Kingdom’s trade profile, increasing 3.5% y-o-y. However, the share of oil in total exports declined to 67.5% from 70.4% over the same period last year, as the non-oil sector captured a larger portion of total trade value.

Re-exports are still climbing

Total non-oil exports, including re-exports, grew to their highest quarterly level since 2017, recording an 18.6% increase y-o-y to SAR 97.5 bn in 4Q 2025. The primary engine behind this surge was the re-export category, which jumped 67.4% y-o-y.

The main driver? A 78.6% increase in the machinery, electrical equipment, and parts category, which accounted for 23.2% of total non-oil exports.

Non-oil exports see mixed results

Excluding re-exports, national non-oil exports saw a slight dip, decreasing 1.5% y-o-y. Machinery and electrical equipment topped the list of non-oil exports, jumping 78.6% y-o-y. Chemical products followed, representing 20.2% of total non-oil exports, though they recorded a 6.9% decline over the period.

Meanwhile, merchandise imports rose 4.7% y-o-y. Machinery and electrical equipment led the Kingdom’s import mix with a 30.7% share, marking a 23% increase. Transportation equipment and parts came in second at 14.2%, despite a 2.1% decrease compared to 4Q 2024.

Our trading partners

China remained Saudi Arabia’s top trading partner in 4Q 2025, receiving 13.1% of the Kingdom’s exports, followed by the UAE (11.2%) and Japan (9.9%). Meanwhile, India, South Korea, the US, Bahrain, Egypt, Singapore, and Poland completed the top 10 export markets. China also led imports at 27.2%, ahead of the US (8.7%) and the UAE (5.7%), with Germany, India, Japan, Italy, France, Switzerland, and Egypt rounding out the top 10 import sources.

On a monthly basis

Total non-oil exports, including re-exports, increased 7.4% y-o-y in December 2025, according to separate Gestat data (pdf). This was driven by a 43.1% rise in re-exports, while national non-oil exports (excluding re-exports) decreased by 8.5%. Total merchandise exports rose 3.0% y-o-y, contributing to a 7.1% uptick y-o-y in the trade balance surplus.

The ratio of non-oil exports to imports increased to 37.7% in December, compared to 35.9% in the same month the previous year.

MEANWHILE- Oil exports increased 1.0% y-o-y in December 2025. Oil exports’ share of total exports declined to 67.4% during the month, compared to 68.7% in December 2024.

CMA aims to simplify subsidiary listings on the main market

Subsidiaries of companies listed on Tadawul’s main market could have a path to a fast-tracked listing that skips over the IPO process under a new draft framework (pdf). The Capital Market Authority (CMA) launched a 30-day public consultation on the proposed amendments, giving stakeholders until Friday, 27 March to weigh in.

What changed

Testing investor appetite: Under the draft amendments, issuers and their financial advisors could, before CMA approval, present key company information and financials to a select group of potential investors to test appetite for a direct listing. They could also share details with licensed capital market institutions to prepare research reports, as long as nothing is publicly released before CMA approval.

Direct listening preparations: The draft introduces a registration document for direct listings on the main market, covering the indicative share price mechanism, key risks, and other essential information — similar to requirements on the parallel market.

Independent oversight: Financial advisors must be independent from both the subsidiary and the parent company, reducing the risk of the parent influencing valuation or “guiding price” to the disadvantage of new minority shareholders.

Lock-up periods: To maintain market stability, the draft sets a 12-month restriction on share sales for the parent company and certain shareholders after trading begins.

Why it matters

By removing the IPO requirement, the CMA is offering a fast-track for established groups to unlock value from their subsidiaries, cutting both timelines and costs. It’s a structural shift aimed at deepening the market — not just through new listings but by unbundling major conglomerates already on TASI.

The timing isn’t a coincidence. Following the CMA’s move earlier this month to allow all categories of non-resident foreign investors on the main market, simplifying direct listings could maximize liquidity and valuations by tapping into this broader pool of international capital.

Kayan, Lumi post 2025 results

Kayan

Saudi Kayan Petrochemical’s net loss widened to SAR 2.3 bn in 2025 from SAR 1.8 bn the year prior amid lower average product selling prices despite the increase in sold quantities, it said in a Tadawul disclosure. Revenue fell 3.1% y-o-y to SAR 8.5 bn, while the accumulated losses reached SAR 6.5 bn.

Lumi

Lumi Rental’s net income rose 9.8% y-o-y to SAR 198.1 mn in 2025, as operating performance improved and finance costs decreased, it said in a Tadawul disclosure. Revenue grew 7.7% y-o-y to SAR 1.7 bn mn during the year, supported by steady growth in the lease and rental divisions.

Naf taps new leadership

Naf Company for Feed for Industry promoted Basel Al Harbi to the CEO role, a position he has held on an acting basis since last September, it said in a Tadawul disclosure. Al Harbi, who previously served as procurement manager and operations and staff supervisor, succeeds Murshid Abdulaziz Al Murshidi.

The company also appointed board member Abdullah Suleiman Khalifa Al Khalifa as its new managing director, according to a separate bourse filing. The transition came into effect yesterday, with Al Khalifa’s board status changing to executive member.

King Saudi University launches venture fund + Flyadeal expands its Madinah network

KSU + SparkLabs launch university-based tech fund

King Saud University (KSU) is turning its academic labs into a launchpad for the next generation of tech giants through the newly established King Saud University Venture Fund, according to a press release. In partnership with Silicon Valley-born SparkLabs, the university’s investment arm Riyadh Valley Company aims to transform scientific research and student-led projects into commercially viable, high-impact startups.

The details: Managed by SparkLabs, the fund and its accompanying accelerator will target early-stage ventures from KSU students and faculty, while also attracting external tech firms to the university’s research infrastructure.

Flyadeal grows Madinah network

Low-cost carrier Flyadeal is adding Jazan, Qassim, and Arar to its Madinah network from 1 March, bringing the number of non-stop domestic and international destinations served from the city to 10, according to a press release. The expansion follows the establishment of Madinah as its fourth operational base in January, lifting capacity by 40% and raising weekly frequencies to 94 flights.

More to come: The airline also plans to launch services to London and Dubai. To support this expansion, it introduced the Sfeer loyalty program for travelers, and it aims to expand its network to over 100 destinations by 2030.

Retail investors are becoming a force to be reckoned with

Individual investors are increasingly shaping price action across stocks and ETFs, with retail traders accounting for USD 5.4 tn in trading activity last year, marking a 47% y-o-y jump and the highest level on record since at least 2014, according to data from the research firm Vanda cited by the Associated Press.

After years of being dismissed on Wall Street as “dumb money,” retail investors have, at times, outperformed two of the most popular professionally managed index ETFs — SPY and QQQ. They are now a force to be reckoned with, or as Interactive Brokers’ Steve Sosnick puts it, “if you put enough ants together, they can move a very big log.”

No-commission trading apps, social media investing communities, and digital research tools have encouraged individuals to trade independently rather than entrusting their savings to managed funds. The pandemic lockdowns offered time and motivation, drawing mns to investment platforms during a period when the S&P 500 posted an almost uninterrupted climb since 2015.

At the same time, households accelerated the shift of moving idle money from checking accounts into investment vehicles, increasing transfers by 50% from 2023 to early 2025, according to a JPMorgan Chase report cited by the newswire. Analysts also note that some younger Americans, priced out of the housing market, have redirected their savings into equities instead.

Retail traders also have an increased appetite for risk. When the S&P 500 shed more than 10% over two days last April following unexpected tariff announcements by US President Donald Trump, retail investors bought more than USD 5 bn in stocks during the selloff. They did the same in October during another tariff-driven decline. Retail investors have also moved beyond stocks into riskier vehicles, with options trading alone accounting for roughly USD 650 bn of retail activity last year, according to Vanda.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific equities started out early trading in the green, as upbeat earnings from Nvidia eased panic over AI-driven disruption and ballooning costs. Japan’s Nikkei rose to a record high this morning. Meanwhile, futures edged much lower.

TASI	10,848	-0.5% (YTD: +3.4%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,473	-0.5% (YTD: +6.2%)
NomuC	22,917	-0.8% (YTD: -1.6%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	49,014	-2.7% (YTD: +17.2%)
ADX	10,638	0.0% (YTD: +6.5%)
DFM	6,676	+0.1% (YTD: +10.4%)
S&P 500	6,946	+0.8% (YTD: +1.5%)
FTSE 100	10,806	+1.2% (YTD: +8.8%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,173	+0.9% (YTD: +6.6%)
Brent crude	USD 70.97	+0.3%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.87	+1.3%
Gold	USD 5,226	+1.0%
BTC	USD 68,383	+6.8% (YTD: -22.0%)
Sukuk/bond market index	923.56	-0.2% (YTD: +0.5%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	153.66	0.0% (YTD: +1.2%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	17.93	-8.3% (YTD: +19.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.5% yesterday on turnover of SAR 3.8 bn. The index is up 3.4% YTD.

In the green: Marafiq (+8.5%), SPM (+6.1%), and Jamjoom Pharma (+4.6%).

In the red: Chubb (-5.1%), Saudi Kayan (-4.9%), and Solutions (-4.4%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.8% yesterday on turnover of SAR 17.0 mn. The index is down 1.6% YTD.

In the green: Alrashid Industrial (+8.9%), Yaqeen (+7.3%), and Sahat Almajd (+7.1%).

In the red: Almodawat (-11.7%), NAF (-10.0%), and Fadeco (-9.5%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Saudi German Health’s board recommended buying back up to 4.6 mn ordinary shares — equivalent to 5% of its issued capital — to be held as treasury shares, it said in a Tadawul disclosure. The proposed repurchase, to be funded through internal resources or bank facilities, reflects the board’s view that the share’s current market price is less than its fair value.

Riyadh’s power suhoor guide for Ramadan 2026

In Riyadh, the power lunch doesn’t vanish during Ramadan — it just shifts to suhoor. For 2026, late-night tables replace midday meetings, and business moves to the early hours. We have a quick guide on where to book, depending on what you need from the night.

For privacy, Beefbar in As Sulimaniyah remains a reliable choice. The dimly-lit, modern space is designed with well-spaced booths and corners that keep conversations contained. It’s a year-round business favorite, and its suhoor is priced at SAR 155 per person.

If timing and traffic matter, Fairmont Riyadh in Business Gate offers a logistical edge. Located north of the city center, it provides easier airport access and avoids central congestion. The gated business park setting means smoother entry and faster valet turnaround. Suhoor at Café Connect Terrace is SAR 175 per person — practical for back-to-back meetings in one night.

For a more formal, heritage-driven setting, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah hosts A Night of Tales Suhoor from 11pm to 3:30am, priced at SAR 275 per person. It’s suited for client hosting where atmosphere and setting carry weight alongside the conversation.

For a traditional, high-energy Ramadan environment, try the Mosaique Ramadan tent at Crowne Plaza Riyadh Hotel and Convention Center, offering a suhoor buffet from SAR 230 per person. For a more relaxed yet still business-focused setting, the hotel’s Brazilian grill, Wildfire, serves iftar and suhoor from SAR 276 per person — well suited for informal but outcome-driven dinners.

CALENDAR

FEBRUARY

26 February (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for 142.8k properties across 104 neighborhoods in Hail.

MARCH

12 March (Thursday): Deadline for real estate registration for 253.2k properties in 499 neighborhoods across Riyadh, Qassim, Makkah, and Hail.

18-23 March (Tuesday-Monday): Eid Al Fitr holiday (TBC).

21 March (Saturday): Fanatics Flag Football Classic, Kingdom Arena, Riyadh.

25-27 March (Wednesday-Friday): Future Investment Initiative Institute, Faena Hotel, Miami Beach.

31 March (Tuesday): Zatca’s 23rd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

APRIL

6 April (Monday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

6-7 April (Monday-Tuesday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-16 April (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center – Malham.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh

22-23 April (Wednesday-Thursday): The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah.

27-29 April (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

28 April (Tuesday): GC Summit Saudi Arabia, Riyadh.

MAY

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

5-6 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh.

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid al-Adha holiday.

JUNE

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

12-15 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

NOVEMBER

24-28 November (Tuesday-Saturday): Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun, Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
November: The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia;
6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh;
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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