Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. It’s a relatively busy hump day as the second and final day of the Global Logistics Forum in Riyadh brings a slew of new agreements, while OPEC+ released its monthly oil market report. We have chapter and verse on these stories and others in this morning’s news well, but first…

FACT CHECK- We may be weeks away from Riyadh Metro’s grand debut: The launch of the Riyadh Metro could be just around the corner, with the grand opening expected within weeks, Transport and Logistics Minister Saleh Al Jasser told Al Arabiya (watch: runtime: 12:23). The USD 22.5 bn project is now in the final handover phase, overseen by the Royal Commission for Riyadh City, the minister said. Al Jasser’s remarks follow media reports earlier this week claiming that the project’s launch would be postponed to early next year.

WEATHER WARNING- Al Taif, Maysan, Adham, and Al Ardiyat in the Makkah Province, as well as Al Baha, Aseer, Najran, and Jazan provinces will see moderate to heavy rainfall, coupled with strong winds and dust storms, flash flooding, and hailstorms until Friday, according to a warning issued by the General Directorate of Civil Defense. Meanwhile, Riyadh and the Eastern Province are expected to see light to moderate rainfall.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

#1- First Avenue will begin trading on Tadawul’s parallel market Nomu tomorrow, according to a Tadawul statement. First Avenue’s shares will be allowed to trade within a ±30% range for the first three days, before being capped at no more than 10% up or down when circuit breakers kick in, per the usual practice. The Riyadh-based real estate developer is taking to market a 8.7% stake at SAR 6 apiece, aiming to raise some SAR 98.5 mn.

#2- The three-day 6 Kings Slam event at Riyadh’s Venue kicks off tomorrow, featuring all-star players competing for the largest purse in tennis history. The matches will see face offs between tennis champs Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, and Holger Rune (watch, runtime: 5:15). The final and third-place match will be held on Saturday, 19 October. Book your tickets here.

PSAs-

#1- New employment service platform + AI open data platform from GOSI: The General Organization for Social Ins. (GOSI) launched an employment service linking job seekers with employers with a salary calculator included, as well as e-payment services and other offerings for contributors, retirees, employers, as part of several new e-services, according to a statement. GOSI also rolled out an AI-powered open data platform providing users with access to statistics and insights on social insurance in the Kingdom.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- IPO WATCH- Homegrown manpower provider Tamkeen HR’s institutional offering sold out within hours of opening on Sunday, having booked enough bids to fully cover the IPO’s largest tranche, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. The institutional window will run until this Thursday, 17 October, with the two-day retail subscription scheduled to kick off on Tuesday, 5 November. Tamkeen is taking a 30% stake to Tadawul’s main market, which could see it raise up to SAR 397.5 mn in IPO proceeds.

#2- Saudi Post is on track to launch the design phase of what’s touted to be the region’s largest “super sorting center” early next year, Saudi Post President Anef Abanomai tells Arab News. The potential center is set to feature a fully-automated, robotics-based system, marking a major upgrade from traditional manual sorting techniques, aimed at boosting productivity, lowering costs and cutting down delivery duration, he added. No further information was disclosed.

#3- French firms eyeing Saudi cybersecurity market: A group of 25 unnamed French cybersecurity companies are reportedly looking to secure major partnerships with King Salman Park, Diriyah Development Authority, General Entertainment Authority, and Qiddiya, to revamp the Kingdom’s IT infrastructure, Asharq Al Awsat quotes Director of Business France Saudi Arabia, Rachid Bouloin as saying.

#4- Test flights for the eVTOL aircrafts Saudi Airlines purchased from Germany’s Lilium are set for February 2025, a Saudi Airlines spokesperson told Asharq Al Awsat. The tests will be followed by training pilots and developing infrastructure until deliveries begin to trickle in by 2H 2026, spokesperson Abdullah Al Shahrani said during the Global Logistics Forum in Riyadh. Delivery of the entire fleet will take over six years, Al Shahrani added.

ICYMI- Saudi Airlines is getting 100 eVTOLs: The company finalized an agreement with Lilium in July to purchase 100 eVTOL aircraft. This transaction includes 50 confirmed orders and 50 optional ones, with the first deliveries expected in 4Q 2026.

A maintenance agreement is also in the works: Saudi Airlines is scheduled to sign a deal with Lilium’s customer service organization Lilium POWER-ON for aircraft fleet maintenance and other support services.

DATA POINTS-

#1- The Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) rose 0.3% w-o-w, with SAR 34.7 bn in turnover by the end of last week, according to a weekly report from the exchange.

Al Majed Oud saw the largest increase over the week with its shares increasing 78.7% in the WTD and also saw the highest trading volumes at SAR 2.5 bn. Saudi Aramco came in a close second at SAR 2 bn in trade volumes and no change to share value. Al Rajhi secured the third spot at SAR 1.9 bn in trading volumes, with its shares rising 1.6%.

IN CONTEXT- Saudi individual investors traded SAR 42.2 bn worth of shares while turnover among Saudi institutional investors came in at SAR 9.5 bn. Meanwhile, qualified foreign investors traded SAR 15.1 bn worth of shares, and GCC institutional investors traded SAR 717.7 mn, according to Tadawul’s weekly stock market ownership and trading activity report (pdf).

#2- The Social Development Bank provided SAR 1.5 bn in business financing to upwards of 18k citizens in 3Q 2024, according to state news agency SPA. The funds were distributed to freelancers and family business ventures (SAR 702 mn), SMEs (SAR 465 mn) and social financing initiatives (SAR 378 mn).

CAPITAL MARKETS-

Palestine-based brokerage Securities Co. (USC) added Aramco to its watchlist, assigning the oil giant’s shares a “buy” recommendation, at a target share price of SAR 30, according to a report seen by Mubasher. The only downside risk USC points to is a sharper-than-expected drop in crude prices.

ICYMI- BMI outlined three scenarios for the outlook on Brent crude prices, depending on how rising regional tensions play out.

The medium-term outlook: USC forecasted that Aramco’s bottom line will drop 7.3% y-o-y to SAR 420 bn in 2024, and SAR 403 bn in the next year, before climbing back up to SAR 410 in 2026. It also expects revenues to slightly dip y-o-y for the next two years — after inching up 1.3% y-o-y to SAR 1.675 tn this year, only to slip again to SAR 1.668 tn in 2026.

What they said: “We view Aramco's strong position in the oil and gas industry positively, driven by its access to a robust reserve base, low operating costs, growth potential in the downstream sector, and opportunities for gains in gas operations,” USC said.

REMEMBER- The government counts on Aramco dividends to bridge the budget deficit and to finance the economy’s diversification away from oil, with oil activities accounting for some 67% of government revenues at present. The company’s dividends pushed the Saudi Central Bank’s foreign reserves to an 18-month high of SAR 1.67 tn in May. Saudi Arabia’s government owns 97% of Aramco.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s a busier-than-usual Tuesday in the international press, so let’s jump right in with no further preamble:

#1- Canada expelled five Indian diplomats (including New Delhi’s high commissioner to Ottawa), prompting India to PNG six Canadians just hours later as a diplomatic rift between the two deepened. Canada’s soon-to-depart charge d'affaires in New Delhi said “Canada has provided credible, irrefutable evidence of ties between agents of the government of India and a murder of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil.” The story leads front pages on both sides of the Atlantic (New York Times | Financial Times | Reuters | BBC)

Further reading: How geopolitics caught up with Canada in the FT.

#2- The price of oil dipped nearly 3% overnight after a Washington Post report that Israel will not target Iran’s oil infrastructure in retaliation for Tehran’s 1 October missile strike. Benjamin Netanyahu is said to have told the White House Israel will attack only “military targets.”

MEANWHILE- Israel killed at least 21 people in an airstrike on northern Lebanon, BBC reports.

#3- Britain is prioritizing trade talks with GCC countries and India, the UK’s Business and Trade minister said yesterday. Talks between Britain and the GCC countries are set to resume next week, he said. Reynolds was in our part of the world last month to kickstart the talks.

#4- And the Nobel goes to… Three researchers who have focused on how colonial legacies impacted the relative prosperity of colonized countries shared the 2024 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. “Their research also indicates that more economically inclusive and politically democratic systems prove more conducive to technological innovation and long-run growth,” the FT noted. Check out the original announcement here.

OTHER NEWS worth knowing about on this busy morning:

• Google has ordered up to seven so-called “small modular” nuclear reactors to fire up its data centers as part of its AI growth plan. It’s thought to be the first-ever order for small modulars placed by a corporation.
• The latest in the US election: The Donald and Kamala Harris were in Pennsylvania overnight (it’s a key battleground state) and Harris has agreed to a sitdown with Fox News. There are 20 days left until Americans go to the polls.
• Did Elon fake part of his March of the Droids? “Tesla used humans to remotely control some capabilities of its Optimus robot prototypes at a recent event designed to generate investor enthusiasm for forthcoming products,” Bloomberg writes.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Professional Fighters League’s (PFL) Battle of the Giants is coming to Riyadh on Saturday, 19 October. Headlining the card, MMA superstar Francis Ngannou will face PFL heavyweight champion Renan Ferreira for the title of inaugural PFL Super Champion. Meanwhile, women’s featherweight champion Cris Cyborg will square off against Larissa Pachecho for the World Title Fight in the co-main event. Expect fireworks with additional matchups featuring Johnny Eblen vs. Fabian Edwards and A.J. McKee vs. Paul Hughes.

The three-day Seamless Saudi Arabia will take place at the Riyadh Front Center on Tuesday, 22 October. Business leaders and entrepreneurs from around the world will gather to discuss the latest trends shaping the digital commerce and fintech sectors. Notable speakers include representatives from the World Economic Forum, our friends at Cenomi, as well as Al Rajhi Bank, Riyad Bank, and Saudi Awwal Bank, among others.

The two-day Multilateral Industrial Policy Forum will kick off in Riyadh on Wednesday, 23 October. The forum will address global industrial challenges, focusing on topics like industrial policy, clean energy, and advanced manufacturing tech. The forum is organized by The Industry and Mineral Resources Ministry in partnership with UNIDO. The Kingdom will also host the UNIDO General Conference in 2025.

The four-day Biban24 Forum organized by Monsha’at will run from Tuesday, 5 November to Saturday 9 November in Riyadh. It will feature over 250 speakers and 1.4k exhibitors, focusing on supporting the growth and competitiveness of SMEs, as well as promoting entrepreneurship in the Kingdom. Biban24 will also host the Entrepreneurship World Cup finals, offer 420 workshops, and focus on key sectors like e-commerce and financing.

Cityscape Global will land in Riyadh’s International Convention and Exhibition Center on 11-14 November. With over 400 exhibitors, 500 speakers, and 7 conferences, the real estate event is stretching its scope this year with additional sectors like sustainable smart buildings, stadiums, attractions, and smart cities. Backed by the Municipalities and Housing Ministry, the event will also bring the Saudi sports infrastructure boom to the forefront, including newly-announced stadiums.

The Saudi Intermobility Expo 2024 will take place on 11-13 November at the Jeddah International Exhibition and Convention Center. As the largest transportation event in the MENA region, it will host over 7k decision-makers from 30 countries, highlighting the latest developments in smart sustainable mobility, infrastructure, and urban planning.

The Saudi General Aviation Airshow Sand & Fun 2024 will run from Tuesday, 19 November to Saturday 23 at Al Thumamah Airport, Riyadh. Organized by the Saudi Aviation Club, the event will feature 100+ exhibitors and 15 airshow teams, with over 100k visitors expected. Sand & Fun is a key platform for exploring aviation tech, fostering partnerships, and driving industry growth.