GDP grows 2.7% in 1Q 2025 + Gastat updates 2023 figures amid wider revisions

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Opec+ pushes forward with production increase in June

Good morning, wonderful people. It’s the first issue in May, and we’re getting more and more data on how the economy, debt markets and listed companies performed in the first quarter.

In this morning’s news well: The Kingdom's GDP grew 2.7% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2025, primarily driven by non-oil sector expansion, while Gastat significantly revised the 2023 GDP figures. We also dive into IMF’s latest Regional Economic Outlook insights on MENA and GCC growth.

ALSO- The PIF raised USD 1.25 bn via sukuk, and Banque Saudi Fransi secured USD 650 mn in AT1 bonds. On the capital markets front, Asas Makeen is preparing for a Nomu IPO, while the earnings season is picking up steam with Tawuniya, Bank AlJazira, and Fourth Milling and more announcing 1Q earnings.

BUT FIRST- Three major indices have just landed in our Planet Finance table, to help you stay on top of the shifting fixed income landscape: our sovereign sukuk/bond market index, the S&P MENA bond & sukuk index, and Bloomberg’s VIX. These indices give a clear snapshot of Saudi’s sovereign debt, regional bond and sukuk performance, and overall market volatility.

AND ON OUR RADAR- We will get an insight into the effect Trump’s tariffs are having on the Kingdom’s non-oil private sector activity this week, with the release of Riyad Capital’s PMI data for April — the first such release since what the US head of state called Liberation Day.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Adeer Real Estate kicks off its Nomu IPO offering today. Adeer offers a 20% stake (1 mn shares) at SAR 85 per share, with qualified investors able to subscribe to a minimum of 10 shares and a maximum of 250k shares. The offering will wrap up on Thursday, 8 May, with final shares allocation expected by 12 May.

ADVISORS- Musharaka Financial Company is quarterbacking the transaction as lead financial advisor and bookrunner, while Alsaleh, Alsahli & Partners Law Firm is providing legal counsel. Receiving agents include AlRajhi Capital, Derayah Financial, Alistithmar Capital, Albilad Capital, BSF Capital, Riyad Capital, SAB Invest, ANB Capital, Alinma Capital, AlJazira Capital, Yaqeen Capital, AlKhabeer Capital, Sahm Capital, GIB Capital, and SNB Capital.

WEATHER- Riyadh is expected to see a high of 41°C and a low of 29°C today, while Jeddah’s mercury will go as high as 32°C and as low as 27°C. Makkah will see a stormy 36°C high and 25°C low.

PSAs-

Taxpayers may benefit from a waiver on fines for late registration, payment, filing, and VAT corrections until Monday, 30 June, Zatca said in a post on X. To qualify, taxpayers must be registered, submit overdue returns, and settle outstanding tax debts.

OIL WATCH-

Opec+ will accelerate oil production increments for the second month in a row, adding 411k barrels per day in June, according to a statement. That’s a three-month worth of supply increments that will be delivered all at once next month. The oil group once again cited healthy market fundamentals as the driver behind the decision.

The rationale: The recent moves mark a strategic shift toward regaining market share after years of cutting production, former Opec employee and Rystad Energy A/S geopolitical analyst Jorge León told the Financial Times writes. “Last month’s decision was a wake-up call. Today’s decision is a definitive message,” Leon said.

The move is also seen as a bid to punish overproducing members (Kazakhstan and Iraq) by sending crude prices tumbling, Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed Opec+ delegates.

Ripple effects: The price drop threatens to pressure Opec+ economies, including Saudi Arabia, which needs prices above USD 90 to balance its budget, according to IMF estimates.

BUT- Riyadh is prepared to weather the storm: Saudi officials are reportedly briefing allies and experts that the Kingdom is ready to endure low oil prices without further supply cuts, Reuters reported, citing sources it says are in the know.

The next meeting: “We do see a case for forgoing another triple-decker increase next month [but] we do not rule out another plot twist,” RBC Capital Markets Helima Croft told Reuters separately. The group is expected to meet again 1 June.

What about Western producers? Despite a 16% drop in crude prices in April to a near four-year low, Western oil giants like Exxon and Chevron are pressing ahead with plans to boost their production by 7% and 9% this year, citing break-even costs of at least USD 60 per barrel, Bloomberg reported separately.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

The US approved a USD 3.5 bn weapons sale to the Kingdom, including 1k advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles and support services, with US-based RTX as the main contractor, according to a statement from the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency. The US Congress still needs to sign off on the transaction, which aims to boost Saudi defense without altering the regional military balance, the statement read.

IN CONTEXT- The agreement, approved ahead of US President Donald Trump’s mid-May visit to the Kingdom, aims to reinforce ties with the Kingdom and put pressure on Iran. Trump is also expected to unveil a broader USD 100 bn arms package and advance potential USD 1 tn Saudi investments to the US.

BACKGROUND- The former Biden administration lifted a three-year ban on the sale of offensive weapons to the Kingdom in August, saying that Riyadh upheld its end of an agreement with Washington on drawing back the conflict with the Houthis in Yemen.

DATA POINTS-

Saudi Railways network carried more than 3.3 mn passengers (+24% y-o-y) and sold over 10k tickets during 1Q 2025, according to a statement. Meanwhile, the volume of goods transported across the web of rail lines exceeded 7.4 mn tons to clock a 17% y-o-y increase.

During Ramadan season, our trains carried 1.2 mn passengers over 3.3k trips, with a daily high reaching 48k passengers.

SPORTS-

A packed King Abdullah Sports City Stadium saw Al Ahli secure a 2-0 victory — and its first AFC Champions League title — against Japan's Kawasaki Frontale yesterday. The crown makes Al Ahli the third Saudi team on the tournament’s hall of honors, alongside Al Ittihad and Al Hilal.

SPEAKING OF- Al Hilal and head coach Jorge Jesus have parted ways by mutual consent, days after the team’s semifinal loss to Al Ahli, the club said in a post on X. Mohammed Al Shalhoub is stepping in as interim coach, with reports suggesting a foreign replacement will be hired before Al Hilal faces Real Madrid in the FIFA Club World Cup on 18 June, according to AP News.

BACKGROUND-Appointed in July 2023, Jesus led the club to a record 34-game streak and its 19th Saudi Pro League title, but trails Al Ittihad by six points this season with five matches left.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Warren Buffett blindsided investors with a surprise announcement that he wants to stepdown as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway by the end of the year, to be replaced by Vice Chairman Greg Abel. The 94-years old Wall Street icon has spent some 60 years at the helm of Berkshire — which he turned from a textile manufacturer into a USD 1.2 tn conglomerate with a super-successful investment strategy that earned him the nickname “Oracle of Omaha.”

OVER IN POLITICS- Australia’s Anthony Albanese secured a second term in the prime minister’s office, continuing a streak of gains for left-leaning parties after Mark Carney swapped up Canada’s elections last week.

CLOSER TO HOME- Israel is reportedly getting ready to expand its military operations in Gaza within days and call on tens of thousands of reservists. The news comes after an escalation in Syria that saw Israel hit unidentified targets near the presidential palace in Damascus on Friday, in a bid to “send a message” to the new government.

Saudi Arabia’s economy grows 2.7% in 1Q 2025 + Gastat updates 2023 figures amid wider revisions

Saudi Arabia’s economy expanded 2.7% y-o-y in 1Q 2025, driven by a 4.2% increase in non-oil activities and a 3.2% rise in government services, according to flash estimates (pdf) from the General Authority of Statistics (Gastat). Oil activities declined 1.4% in 1Q 2025 as the Kingdom continued to implement voluntary output cuts under Opec+ agreement.

On a quarterly basis: The Kingdom’s seasonally adjusted real GDP rose 0.9% q-o-q in 1Q 2025, largely driven by a 4.9% q-o-q jump in government activities and a 1.0% increase in non-oil activities. Oil activities fell by 1.2% compared to 4Q 2024, softening the overall momentum.

Looking ahead: The Finance Ministry is targeting GDP growth of 4.6% for FY 2025, backed by non-oil activities and private sector participation.

ICYMI- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points to 3% this year and by 0.4 percentage points to 3.7% in 2026, compared to its January estimates. The downward revisions reflect ongoing uncertainty around oil production levels and the pace of non-oil sector expansion.

GASTAT REVISES 2023 GDP-

Saudi Arabia’s 2023 GDP was 14.1% higher than earlier estimates, which puts the economy’s size at SAR 4.5 tn, up from SAR 3.94 tn, according to revised figures from Gastat under its comprehensive GDP update project.

By the numbers: The update shows that the non-oil sector now makes up 53.2% of GDP, a 5.7 percentage point increase from previous estimates, reflecting faster growth in construction, retail, transport, and services, as well as stronger contributions from small- and medium-sized enterprises, the authority said.

The sector breakdown: Construction saw the biggest upward revision, with activity rising 61%, followed by a 29.8% upward revision in wholesale, retail hospitality and restaurants, and a 25.6% boost in transport and communications. The revised numbers also show higher government and household spending than previously reported.

What changed? Gastat launched the revision project at the beginning of 2024, using updated survey data and new sources, including the comprehensive economic survey, the household income and expenditure survey, and the comprehensive agricultural survey. The authority also adopted a chain-linking method in line with global standards to provide more accurate real GDP growth estimates. This resulted in the number of tracked economic activities rising to 134, up from 85.

Vision 2030 reforms buffer Saudi Arabia from global uncertainty -IMF

Reforms shield the Kingdom from the brunt of oil shocks: Saudi Arabia will see strong growth over the next two years, despite challenges like trade wars and low oil prices, IMF Middle East and Central Asia Director Jihad Azour told Al Arabiya commenting on the latest Regional Economic Outlook (pdf).

The drivers: Vision 2030 investments, job creation reforms, diversification, expanding women’s participation, and record-low unemployment are helping reduce oil dependency and oil shock vulnerability, Azour said.

BUT- Oil prices remain a major slice of the GDP pie: Azour noted that oil prices have dropped USD 7-10 below earlier estimates. A decline of USD 10 potentially cuts the balance of payments by 2.5-2.7%, and weighs down on budgets by 2.2-2.3% of GDP, leading to weaker surpluses and strained public finances in 2025.

ICYMI- The World Bank cut Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth forecasts to 2.8% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026. Meanwhile, the IMF downgraded its forecast for the Kingdom to 3% for 2025, down 0.3 percentage points from its January estimates, and to 3.7% for 2026, down 0.4 percentage points. Saudi Arabia is now expected to show a larger deficit of 4% of GDP in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026.

Zooming out: The IMF significantly lowered its 2025 growth forecast for the broader MENA region to 2.6% from 4%, citing geopolitical issues, oil market volatility, weak demand, and trade uncertainty. Oil exporters in the region are now expected to grow by 2.3% in 2025, down from 4%, while importing economies are projected to growth 3.4% over the same period, down from 3.9%.

MEANWHILE- GCC economies are projected to outperform the region with a 3% growth in 2025, a downward from the previous 4.2% forecast due to extended Opec+ cuts and slower non-oil activity. Diversification in Saudi Arabia and the UAE will support medium-term resilience, the IMF said.

Risks remain tilted to the downside, Azour told Reuters, citing global trade tensions, declining oil prices, and regional conflicts. “Uncertainty could impact the real economy, consumption, [and] investment,” he said, though limited trade integration with the US may reduce direct tariff exposure. The report also flagged the conflict in Gaza and delayed reforms in Egypt as presenting headwinds regionally.

What could help: “Trade diversification, acceleration of structural reforms, and improvement of productivity are all elements that will help the non-oil sector to maintain a strong level of growth," Azour added.

PIF closes USD 1.25 bn sukuk offering with 6.5x oversubscription + Banque Saudi Fransi raises USD 650 mn in AT1 bonds

It’s been a busy week for the Kingdom (and GCC) in the international debt markets, continuing the trend as the largest emerging market issuer of debt so far this year — and in 2024 — with new USD denominated issuances from the PIF and Banque Saudi Fransi.

#1- The Public Investment Fund (PIF) closed its USD 1.25 bn sukuk issuance, after the seven-year USD-denominated offering was more than 6.5x oversubscribed, receiving over USD 9 bn in orders, it said in a statement. The sukuk will be listed on the London Stock Exchange’s International Securities Market, as part of PIF’s international sukuk issuance program.

The fresh proceeds will be allocated to general corporate purposes, the Aa3 Moody’s-rated institution stated.

We knew this was coming: The PIF earlier reported its plan to issue USD 1.5-2 bn in sukuk within weeks, as the Kingdom looks to fill budget gaps caused by falling oil prices. The PIF had raised some USD 11 bn at that time.

#2- Banque Saudi Fransi secured a USD 650 mn short-term unsecured debt as part of its capital note program, it said in a filing to Tadawul on Thursday. BSF announced its intention to offer additional tier-1 (AT1) bonds last week, opening the process to local and international investors.

The details: The lender sold 3.25k USD-denominated bonds at USD 200k each, with an annual yield of 6.4%. Although the notes do not come with a specific maturity date, investors wishing to cashout may do so after six years.

SOUND SMART- AT1s are high-risk bonds banks use to shore up their capital. They pay interest but can skip payments, and if the bank runs into trouble, the notes can be written off or converted into shares. They have no maturity date and sit just above equity in the capital structure, offering higher returns in exchange for greater risk.

ADVISORS- The bank enlisted HSBC, Mashreq, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Citigroup Global, Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, Emirates NBD Bank, Merrill Lynch, Mizuho International, MUFG Securities, and Saudi Fransi Capital as joint lead managers.

Asas Makeen to open subscription for its Nomu IPO on 19 May

Asas Makeen for Development and Real Estate Investment is set to float 10% of its share capital (good for 1 mn shares) on the Nomu parallel market, the company said in its prospectus (pdf).

What’s next? The IPO subscription period will run between 19-25 May, with the minimum subscription set at 10 shares per qualified investor and the maximum at c. 500k shares. The final allocation will be announced by 28 May, while the final offer price is yet to be disclosed.

It's a secondary share sale: All shares offered will be sold by the company’s current shareholders, meaning Asas Makeen will not receive any proceeds from the offering. Some SAR 4 mn will be deducted from the proceeds to cover transaction-related expenses.

Following the IPO, existing shareholders will retain a 90% stake, maintaining control of the company. The only substantial shareholder will see his holding diluted to 86.4%, down from 96%, and will be under a 12-month lock-up period from the first day of trading.

Earnings snapshot: The company’s net income rose 27.1% y-o-y to SAR 25.3 mn in 1H 2024, while its revenues declined 32.6% to SAR 89 mn.

ADVISORS- Yaqeen Capital is acting as lead manager and financial advisor on the transaction, while RSM is the auditor. Receiving agents include Alistithmar Capital, Alinma Capital, SNB Capital, Aljazira Capital, Riyad Capital, ANB Capital, Derayah, Alrajhi Capital, BSF Capital, SAB Invest, AlKhabeer Capital, Sahm, and GIB Capital.

Other Nomu listings to watch out for in 2025:

Auto equipment distributor Service Equipment Company is guiding on a price range of SAR 80-84 per share for its upcoming Nomu IPO of a 30% stake;
Al Khalidi Logistics lined up the Capital Market Authority’s (CMA) approval in December to take a 7% stake to the parallel market;
Qudra for Communications and IT got the go-ahead from the CMA to list 5 mn shares — good for an 18.2% stake — on Nomu last month ;
Hawiya Auctions was also approved to offer a 12% staks — 2.4 mn shares — on Nomu;
The National Signage Industrial Company, a subsidiary of Tadawul-listed Arabian Contracting Services, was cleared last month to IPO a 20% stake — amounting to 1.5 mn shares — on Nomu;
School operator Dome International for Investment is floating some 850k new shares on Tadawul’s parallel market Nomu, representing 14.53% of its post-IPO capital.

Debt capital market expected to exceed USD 500 bn by year-end - Fitch

The Kingdom’s debt capital market is on track to cross the USD 500 bn mark by year-end, buoyed by a widening budget deficit and a growing need to diversify funding in light of weaker oil prices, according to a Fitch commentary. Roughly 94% of rated Saudi sukuk sit in the A range, with most issuers holding a stable outlook, according to Fitch.

By the numbers: Saudi Arabia’s debt capital markets grew 16% y-o-y to USD 465.8 bn outstanding in 1Q 2025, with sukuk accounting for 60.4%. Meanwhile, foreign investors ramped up their exposure to Saudi debt, holding 7.7% in 1Q, up from 4.5% at the end of last year.

What the pundits are saying: Falling oil prices and growing budget gaps will lead to more debt being issued in 2025 and 2026. Banks, companies, and projects will likely turn to the debt capital markets for more varied funding, said Bashar Al Natoor, managing director and global head of Islamic finance at Fitch.

Saudi has a solid sukuk market: “We [Fitch] rate about 80% of the outstanding [USD] Saudi sukuk market, with almost all investment-grade and no defaults,” Al Natoor said.

Saudi issuers topped the charts for USD debt in emerging markets (excluding China) last quarter. Globally, the Kingdom was also the largest issuer of USD-denominated sukuk in 1Q, and dominated the GCC debt capital markets, raising USD 31.2 bn across 46 bond and sukuk issuances. Saudi corporate issuances accounted for the lion’s share of the market, raking in some USD 32.1 bn, against USD 19.4 bn in sovereign debt.

ON THE MACRO PICTURE- Fitch expects the government’s budget deficit to widen to 5.1% of GDP in 2025, up from 2.8% last year, as oil revenues and Aramco dividends come under pressure. This falls below the government projection, which sees the deficit coming in at 2.3% of GDP this year.

Government debt is forecast to climb nearly 37% of GDP by the end of next year, up from 29.9% last year. The shift comes as Opec+ production cuts and tariff-driven global volatility weigh down on crude prices — with Brent now forecast to average USD 65 per barrel through 2026, a far cry from the USD 83-85 the Kingdom needs to balance the books.

Nqoodlet lands USD 3 mn in seed funding round + Tuba raises USD 8 mn in pre-seed round

Homegrown fintech startup Nqoodlet secured USD 3 mn in a seed funding round led by Aramco’s VC arm Wa’ed Ventures, according to a press release (pdf). Omantel, 500 Sanabil investment, Oqal, and Seed Holding, along with several strategic angel investors, also participated in the round.

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Where will the money go? The fresh capital will be used to develop Nqoodlet’s platform features, expand its GCC regional footprint, and grow its network of partners.

About Nqoodlet: Founded in 2021 by Mohamed Milyani (LinkedIn) and Yara Ghouth (LinkedIn), Nqoodlet offers an all-in-one financial platform that aims to streamline SME operations with smart corporate cards, real-time expense tracking, tax automation, and payment tools.

IN OTHER STARTUP NEWS- Homegrown healthcare startup Tuba raised USD 8 mn (SAR 30 mn) in a pre-seed round led by Al Waalan Investment, with participation of unnamed angel investors, according to a press release.

Where will the money go?The company plans to use the proceeds to launch its operations in the Kingdom, develop technical infrastructure, and hire new staff as it seeks to capitalize on the digital transformation of the healthcare sector across the country.

“We aim to create a significant shift using artificial intelligence, helping make healthcare management more efficient, equitable, and inclusive,” founder and CEO Fayez Alanazi said.

About Tuba: Founded by Alanazi (LinkedIn) in 2024, Tuba leverages AI to improve healthcare management by delivering transparent, patient-centric solutions for both providers and users via its platform.

The earnings season is gaining momentum

TAWUNIYA INS.-

The Companyfor Cooperative Ins. (Tawuniya) posted a net income of SAR 261.7 mn in 1Q 2025, up 33% y-o-y, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Revenue also rose 16.8% y-o-y to SAR 5.1 bn during the quarter on the back of strong growth across the company’s main sectors.

Tawuniya is setting its sights on expanding in the facultative reins. sector, which it began last year, with a dedicated strategy to be announced by 3Q 2025, CEO Othman Al Kassabi told Al Arabiya. The company is also working with the Ins. Authority to develop the sector, which is expected to double within five years.

BANK ALJAZIRA-

Bank AlJazira reported a 20.2% y-o-y increase in net income to SAR 361 mn in 1Q 2025, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. Total income from financing grew 17.4% y-o-y to SAR 1.58 bn, while income from investment increased 1.2% y-o-y to SAR 496.9 mn.

ELECTRICAL INDUSTRIES CO.-

Electrical Industries Company saw its net income jump 64.1% y-o-y to SAR 123.4 mn in 1Q 2025, pushed up by a shift toward higher-margin product sales despite higher operating costs, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. Revenue dropped 6.5% y-o-y to SAR 506.7 mn during the period due to lower sales, as some shipments were postponed at the request of customers.

SAUDI STEEL PIPE-

Saudi Steel Pipe’s net income slipped 9.2% y-o-y to SAR 69 mn in 1Q 2025 amid rising selling, marketing, and distribution expenses, which were partially offset by an increase in gross profit and other income streams, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. Revenue also fell 11.8% y-o-y during the quarter at SAR 454 mn due to lower sales volume.

HALWANI BROS.-

Halwani Bros reported a net income of SAR 11.5 mn in 1Q 2025, reversing course from a SAR 4.6 mn net loss in the same period last year, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. However, revenue dropped 11% y-o-y to SAR 237.8 mn, due to the impact of currency devaluation on the company’s Egyptian subsidiary, despite higher local sales.

FOURTH MILLING-

Fourth Milling’s net income rose 8.4% y-o-y to SAR 52.7 mn in 1Q 2025 on the back of a 2.8% increase in sales and and a SAR 2.3 mn gain from lower deferred tax liabilities, which were partially offset by increased selling and admin expenses, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Revenue rose 2.8% y-o-y to SAR 170.1 mn, driven by an improved product mix, with flour sales up 4.3% and feed and bran remaining stable.

ALSO- The company is investing SAR 265 m to expand its Al Kharj plant in 2025, adding a new flour mill and a feed mill to boost its daily flour capacity by 750 tons to 1.4k tons and daily feed by 240 tons, it said in a separate disclosure. The projects will be funded through shariah-compliant bank facilities and internal funding, aiming to complete the feed mill plant in 2H 2026 and the flour mill in 2H 2027.

STV closes USD 100 mn shariah-compliant investment fund

INVESTMENT WATCH-

STV closes shariah-compliant investment fund: Saudi Technology Ventures (STV) closed its USD 100 mn STV Nice Fund I, which offers shariah-compliant non-dilutive capital to tech startups in Saudi Arabia, according to a statement. Launched on 30 April, the fund is backed by SAB Invest through its Alternative Financing Fund and supported by the National Technology Development Program (NTDP).

More details: The fund aims to help founders grow their businesses without giving up equity using an instrument called Non-Dilutive Investment in Callable Equity (Nice), all the while offering investors the chance to capitalize on tech ventures under a shariah-compliant framework. STV has already invested in companies like Morni, RedBox, and Invygo.

AVIATION-

Riyadh Air signed 11 agreements with travel and tech companies during the Arabian Travel Market in Dubai, Al Arabiya reports. The agreements focus on technology integration to cover sales, distribution, and digital loyalty tools, aiming to ease operations and booking with Riyadh Air across more than 125 countries.

New partners include Amadeus, Air Retailer, dnata, Sabre, TP Connects, Verteil Technologies, and Loyalty Juggernaut.

REGULATION WATCH-

The Real Estate General Authority approved a new guide for selling and leasing off-plan real estate projects, published in Umm Al Qura on 2 May, Argaam reports. The document provides guidance to real estate projects, developers, and other parties in 55 different scenarios, covering cases like application by private companies and individuals to the developers’ registry, changes and updates to a developer’s registry, and suspension or removal of registered developers.

REAL ESTATE-

The National Housing Company (NHC) opened interest registration for the Tabuk Valley 2 residential development, which spans 778k sqm and features 874 housing units, according to a statement. The project includes 38k sqm of green spaces with recreational areas, as well as essential services such as schools, a health center, mosques, and shopping centers

GCC share of emerging market USD debt climbs to 35% in 1Q -Fitch

Gulf countries accounted for over 35% of all non-China emerging market USD debt issued in 1Q 2025, up from 25% in 2024, according to Fitch Ratings’ latest debt capital markets (DCM) analysis. Governments and corporates in the region are increasingly turning to capital markets to fund budgets, diversify financing, and support major infrastructure projects, the rating agency said.

By the numbers: The GCC’s total debt market size surpassed USD 1 tn across all currencies by the end of March, up 10% y-o-y. Quarterly issuance stood at USD 89 bn, up 11% from 4Q 2024 but down 3% y-o-y.

Sukuk under pressure, conventional bonds rising: Islamic bonds made up 40% of total debt, though sukuk issuance slumped 51% y-o-y in 1Q to USD 18.2 bn. In contrast, conventional bond issuance rose 29%. Still, 83.5% of Fitch-rated GCC USD sukuk are investment-grade, with 57.8% rated in the A category and the majority carrying stable outlooks. Kuwait Financial Center Markaz pegged the figure at USD 17.8 bn.

Sustainability-linked issuance is gaining ground: ESG-related issuance across the GCC has now exceeded USD 50 bn, driven by initiatives such as the UAE’s Sustainable Islamic M-Bills and Qatar’s green finance framework. Fitch also highlighted growing investor and regulatory support for green and socially responsible debt.

Market maturity varies across the bloc: The UAE and Saudi Arabia continue to lead in terms of market depth and development. In contrast, foreign investor participation in local currency DCMs in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman remains limited due to the lack of Euroclear or Clearstream links. In Saudi Arabia, foreign holdings of local government debt rose to 7.7% in 1Q from 4.5% in 2024.

Looking ahead: Fitch expects issuance momentum to continue, citing a “healthy pipeline,” supported by strong regional and Islamic investor liquidity. While the agency noted that “the region’s credit quality remains resilient” — with no rated sukuk or bonds defaulting in 2024 or 1Q 2025 — fiscal pressure could intensify due to global macro uncertainties. Brent crude is forecast to average USD 65 through 2026, a level that may widen deficits in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. By contrast, Abu Dhabi, Qatar, and Kuwait are expected to remain fiscally buffered due to their sovereign wealth assets.

BACKGROUND- Fitch had said earlier the UAE will be the most active among emerging markets in 2025 — particularly in sukuk. The UAE’s DCM grew 8.3% y-o-y to USD 309 bn in 1Q 2025, with issuances surging 109% y-o-y to USD 29.1 bn. The country ranked as the second-largest DCM in the GCC and fourth among emerging market USD debt issuers (ex-China), buoyed by sukuk growth, ESG momentum, and robust USD-denominated issuance.

TASI	11,544	-1.1% (YTD: -4.1%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,472	-1.1% (YTD: -2.5%)
NomuC	28,130	-0.5% (YTD: -10.6%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	5.0% repo	4.5% reverse repo
EGX30	32,126	+0.3% (YTD: +8.0%)
ADX	9,579	+0.2% (YTD: +1.7%)
DFM	5,291	+0.4% (YTD: +2.6%)
S&P 500	5687	+1.5% (YTD: -3.3%)
FTSE 100	8596	+1.2% (YTD: +5.2%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5285	+2.4% (YTD: +8.0%)
Brent crude	USD 61.29	-1.4%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.63	+4.3%
Gold	USD 3243.30	+0.7%
BTC	USD 96,210	-0.5% (YTD: +2.9%)
Sukuk/bonds market index (Tadawul)	913.7	-0.1% (YTD: +1.3%)
S&P MENA bond & sukuk	143.7	-0.2% (YTD: +2.7%)
VIX (Fear gauge)	22.7	-7.8% (YTD: +30.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 1.1% on Thursday on turnover of SAR 5.1 bn. The index is down 4.1% YTD.

In the green: SPPC (+6.2%), Tawuniya (+5.2%) and EIC (+2.8%).

In the red: Saudi Cement (-5.8%), Almoosa (-5.4%) and SAB (-5.1%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.5% on Thursday on turnover of SAR 19.9 mn. The index is down 10.6% YTD.

In the green: Multi Business (+4.5%), FAD (+4.5%) and Almohafaza For Education (+4.0%).

In the red: Clean Life (-6.4%), Leaf (-6.4%) And Aljouf Water (-5.9%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Foods Gate Trading Company lined up approval from the Capital Markets authority to raise its capital to SAR 31.5 mn from SAR 21 mn by issuing one bonus share for every two existing shares, according to a statement. The capital increase will be financed via retained earnings, raising the total number of shares to 3.15 mn.

CALENDAR

MAY

May: World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Global Awards 2025 announces finalists.

4-8 May (Sunday-Thursday): Adeer Real Estate Nomu IPO offering period.

5 May (Monday): Opec+ meeting.

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

9 May (Friday): PFL Mena Season 2 Kick-off.

11-13 May (Sunday-Tuesday): Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah, Riyadh.

12-14 May (Monday-Wednesday): 2025 Saudi Giga projects Summit, Riyadh.

12-15 May (Monday-Thursday): Saudi Smart Manufacturing, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 May (Monday-Thursday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

23 May (Friday): Guns N’ Roses Show, Riyadh.

29 May (Thursday): 2024-2025 academic year ends.

JUNE

4-9 June (Wednesday-Monday): Hajj.

6-10 June (Friday-Tuesday): Eid Al Adha.

17-18 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

24-25 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): Tech-ecO-System Summit (ToSS), Riyadh.

30 June (Monday): Cancellation of Fines and Exemption of Financial Penalties Initiative by the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (Zatca) deadline.

JULY

July (Second week): World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Global Awards 2025 awards ceremony, Geneva.

7 July-24 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

29-30 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

31 July (Thursday): Deadline for companies with SAR 2.5 mn or more in 2022/2023 revenues to integrate e-invoicing solutions with Fatoora.

AUGUST

7 July-24 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

5-17 August (Tuesday-Sunday): 2025 Fiba Asia Cup, Jeddah.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Monday-Wednesday): Money 20/20 Middle East, Riyadh.

17-18 September (Wednesday-Thursday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

23 September (Tuesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

1-3 October (Wednesday-Friday): Saudi Green Building Forum, Riyadh.

7-8 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global EV & Mobility Technology (GEMTECH) Forum, Riyadh.

17 October (Friday): Saudization for private healthcare roles enters its second phase.

22-23 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Private Capital Forum, Riyadh.

25-27 December (Saturday-Monday): The Fortune Global Forum 2025, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

3-9 November (Monday- Sunday): WTA Tour Finals, Riyadh.

23-26 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday) The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh.

27-30 November (Thursday-Sunday): World Rally Championship Saudi Arabia 2025, Jeddah.

30 November (Sunday): Zatca 21st E-invocing integration wave deadline.

DECEMBER

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): International Conference on Nuclear and Radiological Emergencies, Riyadh.

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): 61st ISOCARP World Planning Congress, Riyadh.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

31 December (Wednesday): Zatca 22st E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

2026

UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

2027

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.

Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

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