First prospectus of the year

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: SGR to gradually raise annual production to 5 mn ounces by 2028

Good morning, ladies and gents. We have a pretty busy and meaty issue for you this morning, driven by the news of Saudi Arabia’s first official prospectus. Saleh Abdulaziz Al Rashed is moving forward with a public offering on Tadawul’s main market, which could mark the first IPO after a year of flops and downturns on the Tadawul.

ALSO: We look under the hood of annual inflation figures, as well as the performance of the Kingdom’s venture capital market in 2025.

PSA

Businesses subject to VAT with more than SAR 40 mn in annual revenues have until 31 January to file their December tax returns, while those whose annual revenues are below SAR 40 mn must file their 4Q returns by the same date, the Zakat, Tax, and Customs Authority (Zatca) said in a statement. Late submissions may incur fines ranging from 5% to 25% of the declared taxes.

Watch this space

Saudi Gold Refinery (SGR) aims to gradually raise annual production to 5 mn ounces by 2028, ahead of a planned IPO between 2028 and 2030, Chairman Suliman Al Othaim told Argaam. The company expects 6-10 new mines to be operational before listing. SGR produced 1.5 mn ounces of gold in 2025, beating its target of 1 mn ounces.

SGR isn’t the only mining firm eyeing a public debut: Ajlan & Bros. Holding plans to list its mining subsidiary Ajlan & Bros Mining and Metals (ABM) between 2029-2030, CEO Fahad Alenezi told Argaam. ABM’s investment portfolio stands at 35% of its target to hit SAR 50 bn by 2030, Alenezi said.

ABM’s portfolio includes some 39 mining sites, with mineral production targeted at 120k tons this year before gradually scaling to 700k–800k tons by 2030, Alenezi said, adding that the company plans to produce over 800k tons of concentrates by 2030.

Aramco expects to generate USD 3-5 bn in technology-driven gains in 2025, compared with a total of USD 6 bn during 2023-2024, as AI and advanced technology help lower drilling and maintenance costs and boost well productivity, Bloomberg reports, citing CEO Amin Nasser as saying at Davos.

The strategy: Aramco is using nearly a century of geological data and AI to optimize production and reduce costs, drilling fewer wells per barrel and improving pipeline reliability. The company is also partnering with hyperscalers and PIF-backed Humain, while its USD 7.5 bn venture capital arm invests in industry-related tech that can be applied in-house.

Data point

USD 20 bn — the value of international bonds Saudi Arabia sold in the first three weeks of 2026. Faced with tighter liquidity in the market and rising credit demand to support the execution of Vision 2030 projects, banks in particular have been tapping the markets to capitalize on favorable rates and spreads at breakneck speed, Bloomberg reports.

The government accounted for the lion’s share of the YTD figure with its issuance of USD11.5 bn in USD-denominated notes within the first week of January. Saudi Electricity Company, Saudi National Bank, Riyad Bank, Al Rajhi Bank, Bank Al Bilad, and stc have also each tapped international debt markets with sales.

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The big story abroad

Is “Sell America” back? A massive selloff hit Wall Street last night, as US President Donald Trump stood his ground on plans to take over Greenland despite European opposition.

All three Wall Street indices fell to their lowest since October, with the S&P 500 down 2.1%. At the same time: The USD slid 0.9% against a basket of six peers, gold surged to a record high, and long-term US yields hit a four-month high.

Meanwhile, a historic rout in Japanese bonds sent yields above 4% for the first time ever on concerns over the country’s fiscal health, after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called for a snap election which could hand her a mandate to pursue stimulus plans, including the removal of a food sales tax.

Adding fuel to the fire: Danish pension fund AkademikerPension said it will exit US Treasuries by the end of the month on the back of concerns that the current administration has created too many credit risks.

What to watch: Trump will be landing in Davos today, where he is set to schedule a few meetings to discuss Greenland.

ALSO- Netflix is tightening its screws in the Warner Bros takeover race: The streamer is converting its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery into an allcash offer, matching one key advantage offered by Paramount Skydance’s Gulf-backed bid, Bloomberg reports, citing a filing. Netflix had previously proposed USD 27.75 per share using a mix of banknotes and stock for Warner’s studio and streaming assets. Investors are set to vote on the transaction in April.

Saleh Abdulaziz Al Rashed to sell 30% stake on Tadawul

Saleh Abdulaziz Al Rashed & Sons Co. is the first company to issue a prospectus for a Tadawul IPO in 2026, announcing plans to sell a 30% stake (5.58 mn shares) on the main market, according to its prospectus. The construction materials and mining company secured the necessary regulatory approvals for the listing back in September.

The structure: The entirety of the shares will be offered to institutional investors, each able to book 100k-930k shares during the bookbuilding period running from Sunday, 1 February to Thursday, 5 February. Up to 30% of the shares on offer will be open to retail investors from Thursday, 12 February to Tuesday, 17 February, with retail investors being able to apply for up to 250k shares each, with a minimum of 10 shares. Final allocations will be announced on Tuesday, 24 February.

Breaking the pattern?

Saleh Abdulaziz Al Rashed’s IPO is on track to be the first on the Tadawul after closing a bruising 2025, which saw the benchmark index fall nearly 13% in its steepest annual drop since the oil price crash of 2015.

It was also a tough year for IPOs, with a large handful of companies sustaining steep drops from their IPO pricing by the end of 2026, while others shelved their IPO plans altogether.

More transaction details

The selling shareholders will collectively retain a controlling 70% interest in the company. Abdulaziz Saleh Al Rashed — currently the largest shareholder with 35.8% — will see his stake reduced to 25.1%, while Abdullah Saleh Abdulaziz Al Rashed’s 20.8% stake will be diluted to 14.6%. Substantial shareholders will be subject to a six-month lock-up period starting from the first day of trading.

Unlike most IPO structures, the company will not receive any funds from this offering. After deducting estimated IPO-related expenses of SAR 20 mn, the net proceeds will be distributed entirely to the selling shareholders on a pro-rata basis.

About the company: Founded in 1975, Saleh Abdulaziz Al Rashed & Sons operates primarily in quarrying, crushers, and construction materials, supplying aggregates and related inputs across multiple regions in Saudi Arabia. The group runs operations in Riyadh, Jeddah, Jizan, Tabuk, Madinah, and Khamis Mushait, and positions itself as a beneficiary of Vision 2030-linked infrastructure and construction demand.

ADVISORS- ANB Capital is leading the transaction as the financial advisor, lead manager, bookrunner, and underwriter. Receiving agents for the offering include ANB Capital, Alinma Capital, Saudi Fransi Capital, Al Rajhi Capital, Riyad Capital, Albilad Investment, Al Jazira Capital, Alistithmar Capital, Derayah Financial, SNB Capital, Yaqeen Capital, Al Khabeer Capital, SAB Invest, Sahm Capital, GIB Capital, Musharaka Capital, EFG Hermes KSA, Awaed Alosool Capital, and Dinar Investment.

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Saudi inflation stabilizes at 2.0% in 2025 as housing demand masks cooling items

Annual inflation in 2025 masked a divergence between a red-hot rental market and a deflationary trend in tech and household goods, with the latest data from the General Authority for Statistics (Gastat) showing a 2.0% rise in the annual CPI index (pdf). At the same time, wholesale prices (WPI) also rose 2.0%, driven by higher prices in refined petroleum and agricultural products.

The headline figure indicates stability, but the engine of inflation has narrowed. Housing costs and specific industrial inputs are now the primary drivers of the CPI and WPI baskets, while traditional “cost of living” items like food and communications have largely stabilized or dropped.

The “rental trap” remains the primary driver: Housing and utilities prices jumped 6.1% over the year, driven almost exclusively by an 8.2% jump in actual rentals for housing. Other key pricing shifts:

The experience economy: Personal care and miscellaneous items rose 5.1%, fueled by an 18.6% rise in “other personal belongings,” while recreation and culture rose 2.5%;
Ins. and financial services were up 6.3%;
Stable sectors: Food (1.1%), tobacco (0.6%) and restaurants / accommodation (1.8%) saw modest growth.

Where the pressure eased: Tech and communications, home goods, and healthcare services were all on a deflationary path in 2026, with household maintenance leading the pack with a 0.8% decline.

Wholesale prices signal downstream pressure: The 2.0% increase in the WPI (pdf) suggests potential cost-push pressure for industries in 2026. Refined petroleum, agriculture and fishery, and manufacturing input prices were all up throughout 2025, with ores and minerals providing a slight reprieve as prices in that sector fell 1.2%.

What to expect this year

Price growth is projected to hold steady at somewhere between 2-2.2% in 2026, according to NBK, Finance Ministry, and World Bank forecasts. A cooling housing market — aided by the rent freeze in Riyadh — will help offset rising global commodity costs, NBK previously noted.

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Saudi Arabia’s VC market steps into a new realm of maturity

Saudi Arabia’s venture capital market has transitioned from government-pushed to market-pulled growth, becoming the second-most active emerging venture market (EVM) globally behind only Singapore. The Kingdom secured USD 1.72 bn across 257 transactions last year — a 145% y-o-y increase in value, according to Magnitt’s Saudi Arabia Venture Capital Report.

For the first time, Saudi Arabia overtook the UAE as MENA’s most active VC market by transaction count.

What changed? The “equity gap” in the middle of the funnel is closing. The Kingdom saw a fivefold y-o-y increase in series B funding (USD 448 mn), signaling that investors are no longer just betting on ideas, but are scaling companies to maturity. This has created a massive international pull: Foreign investor participation hit a record 34% in 2025, a 65% annual jump.

More international investors and record exits signal market evolution

Early-stage rounds continued to dominate VC activity in Saudi, rising 50% y-o-y to account for a record 87% of all transactions in 2025. Pre-seed funding reached a record USD 56 mn, up 78% y-o-y, across 82 transactions, while series A activity hit a new high with 16 transactions raising USD 201 mn, a 41% annual increase.

The year’s largest disclosed transactions included Ninja (USD 254 mn), Tabby (USD 160 mn), and Hala (USD 157 mn).

The local market’s signs of maturity go beyond record funding: The market maturity is driven by global growth investor interest, a rise in local participation, and an expanding track record of IPOs and secondary exits, Khwarizmi Ventures’ Managing Partner Abdulaziz Alturki said. The performance goes beyond the record capital deployment, with growth spreading across funding stages, international investor participation deepening, and early indications of a more complete venture cycle emerging, Magnitt’s CEO Philip Bahoshy said, according to a separate press release (pdf).

Exit activity stepped into a new high to usher in greater maturity, with Saudi Arabia recording 10 M&A transactions in 2025. Six of the acquisitions were led by Saudi-based buyers, while the remainder were driven by regional investors from Egypt and the UAE. Saudi Arabia’s VC market is pivoting more toward M&A amid an emergence of scale-ups, fueling exits and recycling talent and innovation, venture capitalist Ahmed Thukair has previously told us.

Investor base broadens as international capital deepens: The number of investors backing Saudi startups rose 38% y-o-y to a record 194 in 2025, driven by higher international investor participation. This international participation expanded across the entire funding cycle, rising 30% y-o-y at the early stage. At Series B, the investor base increased from eight to 40 participants, with international backers doubling to eight while Saudi and wider MENA-based investors saw an eightfold increase to 32.

Megarounds return, led by a fintech and e-commerce dominance

Growth was broad-based across the VC pipeline in 2025, with non-mega funding rising 101% y-o-y to a record USD 1.15 bn, highlighting sustained momentum at the early- and mid- stages. This was complemented by a sharp rebound in mega transactions of USD 100 mn and above, where funding jumped 339% y-o-y, signaling deeper liquidity and improving capital availability across both early-stage and growth-stage segments.

The sector breakdown: Fintech was king, securing USD 506 mn (up 172% y-o-y), accounting for 29% of all capital. Retail and e-commerce followed with USD 392 mn across 25 transactions, while gaming and logistics were more on the fringe, although they are emerging as the “second tier” of the VC economy.

What’s next?

Saudi Arabia is expected to remain the Middle East’s most structurally supported VC market in 2026, with funding volumes rising alongside sustained transactional activity, Magnitt Research Department Manager Farah El Nahlawi has previously told us. The Kingdom is also likely to continue attracting large Series A and growth rounds, with international investors maintaining a record share of both participation and deployed capital.

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Dar Al Majed + SPM secure shariah-compliant financing

Dar Al Majed Real Estate secured a SAR 500 mn shariah-compliant loan agreement with Arab National Bank (ANB), just days after inking a similar agreement with Alnima Bank, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The five-year ANB facility, which includes a two-year grace period, brings the newly listed developer’s fresh liquidity to SAR 1 bn in less than a week.

Where the money is going: The aggressive leveraging comes as the developer ramps up execution on a heavy pipeline, including an 8.1k sqm mixed-use development in Riyadh with Jadwa Fund and two residential projects being developed for Tatweej Contracting.

ALSO- Saudi Paper Manufacturing lined up a USD 40 mn shariah-compliant credit facility with Kuwait Finance House – Bahrain to support working capital and refinance medium-term debt, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The agreement, which includes a 12-month renewable working capital tranche, appears timed to support the operational ramp-up of its new massive production line, which adds 60k tons of annual capacity.

Naqel Express taps India’s Unicommerce for e-commerce logistics

Indian SaaS provider Unicommerce is partnering with Saudi Post-owned Naqel Express to integrate e-commerce logistics across the Kingdom and the wider GCC, according to an Indian exchange filing.

The details: The agreement links Unicommerce’s technology with Naqel’s 5k delivery points, allowing Saudi Arabia’s e-commerce platforms to manage warehousing, cross-border shipping, and last-mile delivery through a Unicommerce dashboard. The partnership establishes a formal cross-border channel for Saudi e-commerce sellers targeting the Indian market. These businesses will also be able to better deliver across GCC, Jordan, and Lebanon through the integrated platform.

Why it matters: The Kingdom’s legacy state-owned players are increasingly outsourcing their software layer to Indian tech firms to enhance tech adoption. Last month, Indian tech firm Zoho obtained a cloud service provider certification from the Saudi Communication and Information Technology Ministry, allowing the firm to host restricted government and commercial data.

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China’s export boom masks a domestic squeeze

China’s exports hit record highs in 2025, generating a USD 1.2 tn trade surplus, even as exporters faced an uphill battle during the year to tap new markets amid freefalling US orders. The shift, exporters tell Reuters, came at a hefty price tag in exchange for smaller, less profitable orders and more work, despite headline numbers suggesting a thriving global trade picture.

The export growth followed a pivot away from the US after President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes cut American orders by about a third. Chinese exporters shifted to markets in South America and Africa, where buyers often negotiated tougher terms and smaller orders. Meanwhile, industrial bottom lines fell 13.1% in November, the fastest decline in over a year.

A two-speed economy

Strong exports masked weaknesses at home: While China’s GDP grew 5% during the year, investment shrank, and consumption remained sluggish, Bloomberg notes. Government incentives, including a USD 72 bn loan-backing facility and interest subsidies for SMEs, aim to boost domestic spending and private investment. Still, interventionist policies, overcapacity, and declining household demand have left industrial profitability and wages under pressure.

Frontline realities

Manufacturers in China are struggling to keep their factories running, with widespread job cuts leaving many factories nearly empty, according to the Financial Times. The number of struggling companies — or “zombie companies” — has reached 12% of the total registered companies, more than doubling since 2018, according to a study by Natixis’ chief Asia-Pacific economist, Alicia García-Herrero.

The contrast highlights China’s economic divide, as exports surge while domestic industries struggle, leaving workers and households with stagnant wages, layoffs, and few prospects, the FT claims. Analysts expect the divide to widen as Beijing doubles down on its export-led growth by supporting its high-tech sector to compete with the US — allowing the housing market to keep deflating.

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MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are broadly in the red once again this morning, weighed down by Washington’s threats of imposing tariffs on European countries over Greenland. Investors continued to pour into safe havens, driving up gold prices even further. The Hang Seng Index and mainland China’s CSI 300 are just marginally in the green, while other markets including Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi are trading down. Futures indicate Wall Street is in for a better start to trading, with Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures trading up.

TASI	10,912	0.0% (YTD: +4.0%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,468	0.0% (YTD: +5.8%)
NomuC	23,358	0.0% (YTD: +0.3%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	45,905	+1.9% (YTD: +9.7%)
ADX	10,196	+0.3% (YTD: +2.0%)
DFM	6,375	+0.5% (YTD: +5.4%)
S&P 500	6,797	-2.1% (YTD: -0.7%)
FTSE 100	10,127	-0.7% (YTD: +2.0%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,892	-0.6% (YTD: +1.7%)
Brent crude	USD 64.16	-1.2%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.88	-0.8%
Gold	USD 4,838	+1.5%
BTC	USD 88,917	-4.0% (YTD: +1.5%)
Sukuk/bond market index	921.17	-0.1% (YTD: +0.2%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.64	0.0% (YTD: -0.2%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	20.09	+6.6% (YTD: +34.4%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI remained unchanged yesterday on turnover of SAR 4.0 bn. The index is up 4.0% YTD.

In the green: Saudi Cable (+9.7%), Amak (+9.3%) and Aljouf (+6.5%).

In the red: Tadco (-3.7%), Tadawul Group (-3.6%) and Herfy Foods (-3.5%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC remained unchanged yesterday on turnover of SAR 12.1 mn. The index is up 0.3% YTD.

In the green: Knowledgenet (+16.3%), Alhasoob (+7.7%) and Apico (+6.3%).

In the red: United Mining (-9.4%), Fadeco (-8.2%) and TMC (-6.9%).

CALENDAR

JANUARY

18-21 January (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Hospital Design and Build Expo, Riyadh.

26-27 January (Monday-Tuesday): SuperReturn Saudi Arabia, Hotel Fairmont, Riyadh.

26-27 January (Monday-Tuesday): GPRC Summit, Riyadh.

26-28 January (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Franchise Expo (SFE), Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre, Riyadh.

26-28 January (Monday-Wednesday): Real Estate Future Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 January (Monday-Wednesday): IFAT Saudi Arabia, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center, Riyadh,

27-28 January (Tuesday-Wednesday): SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh.

28 January (Wednesday): Data Center Nation Riyadh, Riyadh.

28-30 January (Wednesday-Friday): Jeddah International Travel and Tourism Exhibition (JTTX), Jeddah.

FEBRUARY

2-4 February (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Media Forum, Riyadh.

2-4 February (Monday-Wednesday): Women Leaders Summit and Awards KSA, Riyadh.

2-13 February (Monday-Friday): 2026 Asian Road Cycling Championship and Paralympic Cycling, Qassim.

3-4 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): RLC Global Forum Annual Meeting, Riyadh.

4 February (Wednesday): Michelin Guide’s Restaurant Celebration, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

5 February (Thursday): Deadline to submit bids for EPC contract for Ras Mohaisen-Baha-Makkah Independent Water Transmission System.

5-7 February (Thursday-Saturday): LIV Golf 2026 season opener, Riyadh Golf Club, Riyadh.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh.

8-9 February (Sunday-Monday): AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (ACEME), Maraya Hall, AlUla.

9-10 February (Monday-Tuesday): Global Games Show Riyadh 2026, Malf Hall, Riyadh.

9-14 February (Monday-Saturday): Asian Racing Conference, Crowne Plaza Riyadh RDC Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

11 February (Wednesday) Digital Transformation Summit Saudi Arabia (DTS), Riyadh.

11-14 February (Wednesday-Saturday): JeddaDerm, Jeddah.

13-14 February (Friday-Saturday): Jeddah E-Prix 2026, Jeddah.

15-17 February (Sunday-Tuesday): The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh Front & Exhibition Center.

16 February (Monday): King Salman Stadium design-and-build contract prequalification submission deadline.

16 February (Monday): First day of Ramadan (TBC).

22 February (Sunday): Founding Day.

26 February (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for 142.8k properties across 104 neighborhoods in Hail.

MARCH

12 March (Thursday): Deadline for real estate registration for 253.2k properties in 499 neighborhoods across Riyadh, Qassim, Makkah, and Hail.

18-23 March (Tuesday-Monday): Eid Al-Fitr holiday (TBC).

21 March (Saturday): Fanatics Flag Football Classic, Kingdom Arena, Riyadh.

31 March (Tuesday): Zatca’s 23rd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

APRIL

6 April (Monday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

6-7 April (Monday-Tuesday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-16 April (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center – Malham.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21 April (Tuesday): GC Summit Saudi Arabia 2026, Saudi Arabia.

27-29 April (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

MAY

3-5 May (Sunday-Tuesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh.

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid al-Adha holiday.

JUNE

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production in 2026.
November: UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh.
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.
6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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