Everything you need to know about day one of the WEF in Riyadh

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Blinken on stage at World Economic Forum in Riyadh today

Good morning, friends. The second and final day of the World Economic Forum’s special meeting in Riyadh will get underway in just a few hours, with some 200 heads of state and government and other public figures joining more than 1k industry leaders in the capital city for the gathering, headlined “Global Collaboration, Growth, and Energy for Development.”

On the agenda today:

Investment Minister Khalid Al Falih will join BlackRock chief Larry Fink and Olayan Group’s Lubna Olaya to talk about “investing amid global fracture”;
Industry and Mineral Resources Minister Bandar Al Khorayef will join Gecko Robotics CEO and Co-founder Jake Loosararian for talks on risks and chances of growth for technology in the manufacturing sector;
The energy ministers of Tanzania and Indonesia along with Aramco CEO Amin Nasser, Nuveen CEO Jose Minaya and the chairman of Schneider Electric will chew over the tradeoffs of the “business case for the energy transition.”
Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, along Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, and Jordan’s Deputy Prime Minister of Foreign Affairs Ayman Al Safadi will discuss the war on Gaza and other regional issues;
Economy and Planning Minister Fasial Alibrahim will join Pakistan’s prime minister and WEF President Borge Brende, among others, to talk about the national and global policies needed to “lift economic prospects.”

THE BIG ONE? US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is on stage at 12:45 for a 30-minute interview. Blinken was in town for the WEF as well as meetings with Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman and other Arab and Saudi officials. He next heads to Israel and Jordan in a swing through the region set to wrap on Wednesday.

Watch public sessions live {here} or check out the full agenda {here}.

WEATHER- Riyadh will be mainly cloudy with a high of 34°C and a low of 22°C. There’s a chance of rain later today, setting the stage for two days of occasional rain and thundershowers through Wednesday. Meanwhile, AlTaif is expecting heavy thundershowers with a high of 24°C and a low of 17°C, and Makkah with a high of 37°C and a low of 26°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- IPO WATCH- Water treatment firm Miahona will release an indicative price range for its Tadawul IPO today as bankers kickstart the bookbuilding process. The company plans to sell a 30% stake on the main market.

#2- Qualified investors started placing orders for the Nomu IPO of Mohammed HadiAl-Rasheed yesterday, with the subscription period running until Monday, 6 may. The Riyadh-based construction and mining firm is gearing up to sell as 12% stake. Al-Rasheed is guiding on a price range of SAR 22-28 per share.

#3- Al Khabeer Capital’s Alkhabeer Diversified Income Traded Fund 2030 opened to subscriptions yesterday for investors in the Kingdom and the wider GCC region and will wrap up Thursday, 6 May, it said in a statement. Investors can subscribe for a minimum of SAR 1k per unit. Meanwhile, the asset manager is targeting a SAR 1 bn capital, and up to 8% in annual returns.

The fund will invest in multiple asset classes including sukuk, trade finance, Ijara transactions, asset backed loans, structured income tools, income funds and Murabaha, the statement reads.

Receiving agents: Aljazira Capital, Alkhabeer Tadawul, SNB Capital, Riyad Bank, Arab National Bank, Alrajhi Bank, Banque Saudi Fransi, and Alinma Bank as receiving agents.

#4- Another Chinese airline cleared to fly here: Chinese state-owned airline China Airlines will operate regular flights between Beijing and Riyadh starting Monday, 6 May, the General Authority for Civil Aviation (Gaca) said in a statement. It will start with three weekly flights in May, with flights set to rise to seven starting Tuesday, 2 July, according to the statement.

And one water salute to another: China Eastern Airlines’ first flight to Riyadh from Shanghai arrived yesterday, state news agency SPA reported.Gaca had previously cleared China Eastern Airlines to run three weekly flights between Shanghai and Riyadh starting this week. It also approved earlier this month launching passenger and air cargo flights by China Southern Airlines connecting Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen and Riyadh.

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DID YOU KNOW that we also cover Egypt and the UAE?

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Two big regional stories are setting the tone this morning in our corner of the world:

#1- A Hamas delegation is due in Cairo today to discuss a proposal by Egyptian negotiators that would see the Palestinian group release 20 Israeli hostages in return for a three-week ceasefire.

#2- Israeli officials are spooked by the prospect that the ICC could be readying arrest warrants, reports the New York Times. Netanyahu could be among those named in a warrant on charges of preventing the delivery of aid and the country’s “excessively harsh” assault on Gaza.

It’s a quiet morning in the global business press, but don’t expect that to continue into the rest of the week:

The US Federal Reserve will discuss interest rates Tuesday and Wednesday (see Planet Finance, below) — pundits will scour Jay Powell’s every utterance after the meeting on Wednesday;
Earnings seasons continues (Amazon.com, Apple, HSBC are among the bold-face names releasing this week);
England holds local elections on Thursday (look for mayoral elections in London, Birmingham, and Manchester);
We’ll get growth estimates for the EU, France, Germany, Italy and Spain tomorrow.

SPEAKING OF SPAIN- We should know in the next few hours whether Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will step down. He went into seclusion last week, saying he was debating whether to call it quits after a far-right group brought what most observers agree are trumped-up court proceedings against his wife. “I urgently need to answer a question that I keep asking myself: Is it worth it for me to remain [in office] in spite of the right and far-right’s mudslinging?”

All of Europe is waiting with baited breath to see whether the continent’s fifth-largest economy enters a “new period of political instability,” Politico writes in a must-read piece.

ALSO- Elon is in China trying to drum up business, authorities in the US continue to crack down on pro-Palestine protests on university campuses, and Israel may delay its assault on Rafah if hostages are released. At least 13 Palestinians were killed in Israeli strikes yesterday.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Riyadh will host this year’s edition of the World Investment Conference from 25-27 November, according to a statement. The flagship event by the World Association of Investment Promotion Agencies (WAIPA) will bring together leading investors, leaders and stakeholders for talks on global investment trends and avenues of growth.

Automechanika Riyadh will open on Tuesday, 30 April till Thursday, 2 May at the Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center.The annual trade fair will showcase the automotive industry’s latest advances and innovations.

Saudi Smash will open on Saturday, 4 May until Saturday, 11 May at the King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah. The smash event is Saudi’s first World Table Tennis (WTT) Grand Smash.

Here’s what you need to know about day one of the World Economic Forum’s special meeting in Riyadh

Day one of the World Economic Forum’s special meeting in Riyadh saw geopolitical threats, global growth, and energy take center stage. Top decision-makers, industry leaders and government officials discussed policy changes needed to revive struggling economies, achieve stability, and narrow the gap between developed and developing nations. Here’s everything you need to know about the first day:

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Geopolitical tensions are endangering the global growth outlook, Finance Minister Mohamed Al Jadaan said at the forum yesterday. “Today, to me, geopolitical risks are possibly the number one risk as you look at the global economy,” he said, adding that “policymakers will need to be very agile in dealing with this,” as the threat of fragmentation and protectionism looms. “You need to make sure that you actually de-escalate,” he said, adding that the “region needs stability.”

The proof? Economies are growing at a rate that is “weak-by-historic standards,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. She described a slowdown in global economic activities and “a significant divergence across the world” as two “very serious problems” that global decision makers ought to address. Georgieva said that while some countries are moving forward, others are “falling behind,” without providing further details. The IMF chief said states should implement reforms that are “mindful of the people,” as they become “transmission lines of prosperity,” when paired with health trade and financial flows.

On the other hand, artificial intelligence could potentially set the tone right for global growth: Economy and Planning Minister Faisal Alibrahim said that adopting AI technologies could see tns of USD poured into the global economy within the next decade as it ushers in new industries.

THE LOCAL ANGLE-

Early planning by the government helped cushion multiple external shocks, Al Jadaan said as he highlighted how structural reforms implemented by the government in the past years helped it address economic headwinds since the pandemic. Economic schemes should focus on adaptation and adjustment and outlining long-term plans ahead of crises, he said.

The Kingdom could drive faster GDP growth by pumping more oil,but it wouldn’t be “comprehensive and sustainable growth,” Al Jadaan said. “If we wanted, we could produce 10 mn barrels of oil per day instead of 9.5 mn and achieve a much larger growth in GDP,” he said.

TWEAKING THE PACE-

The government could “downscale” or “accelerate” some of the projects implemented under Vision 2030, Al Jadaan said. "A lot of the targets have been over delivered, there are challenges obviously, and this is why I said we don't have any ego. We will change, we will adjust [or] extend some of the projects. We will downscale some of the projects [and] accelerate other[s],” he said.

BACKGROUND- Al Jadaan first hinted late last year that delivery plans could be tweaked, with the government saying it will strategically slow the execution of some of its economic transformation projects.

ALL FORMS OF ENERGY ARE NEEDED-

The world will likely need “every source of energy,” Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said in a separate panel, reiterating the Kingdom’s openness to alternate sources of energy so long as their provision is economically viable. “We have no objection to partnering with everyone; we are ready to transport these particles, especially hydrogen in the form of ammonia through pipelines, but we face challenges, including the clarity of policies and incentives,” he said.

REMEMBER-The Kingdom’s policy was (and remains) consistent: “Fossil fuels will be with us for many, many decades to come,” Saudi climate envoy Adel Al Jubeir said during COP28 in Dubai last year. His statements came amid criticism of Saudi’s rejection of a phase-out of hydrocarbons. Al Jubeir reiterated the Saud continues to invest heavily in green projects, strategically directing investments totaling USD 186 bn into more than 80 projects and counting.

A STRONG 1Q FOR TOURISM-

The number of tourists visiting Saudi rose 10% in the first quarter of the year “despite current conditions,” Tourism Minister Ahmed Al Khateeb told Al Arabiya (watch, runtime: 6:12). He said tourist spending grew by 17%. The minister did not provide a breakdown of the visiting tourists numbers, yet said that the Kingdom is targeting 110 mn local and foreign tourists this year.

REMEMBER-The ministry recently doubled its target for 2030, hoping now to be host to 150 mn tourist trips after it hit its target last year ahead of schedule. The new 2030 target sees 80 mn by domestic travelers and 70 mn by international travelers.

GAZA CRISIS IN FOCUS-

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbasbrought the conversation on Gaza to the forefront of the event, by appealing to the US to urge Israel to halt its offensive. “We call on the United States of America to ask Israel to not carry on the Rafah attack. America is the only country able to prevent Israel from committing this crime,” he said, adding that strongly opposes the relocation of Palestinians to Jordan and Egypt. “The biggest catastrophe in the Palestinian people's history would then happen.”

LOCALLY-SOURCED LITHIUM WILL TAKE TIME-

The Kingdom will continue to source lithium from abroad as part of its plans for the nascent EV sector as securing domestic supplies were still at an early stage, Industry and Mineral Resources Minister Bandar Al Khorayef told Reuters. "Lithium is a very important mineral that happens to be part of a very important part of the supply chain, especially for batteries," he said. "There are some signs which are encouraging, but we need to do more," he said on sourcing lithium locally. "For something to be economically feasible there are two things we need to look at: the size of deposits and concentration. We do not have enough evidence to say that we have the right size of deposits and concentration." Al Khorayef said.

The Kingdom’s mineral sector is aiming for the sky: Manara, a JV between PIF and mining giant Ma’aden, is eying a stake in Zambia's First Quantum Minerals copper mines Sentinel and Kansanshi, and is also about to close a USD 1 bn investment in Barrick Gold’s Reko Diq copper and gold mining project in Pakistan. Meanwhile, Aramco is reportedly planning to extract lithium from brine found in its oilfields.

ON THE SIDELINES-

#1- The Energy Ministry and the EU are set to finalize a MoU on energy “in the next few months,” a statement by the Energy Ministry and the European Commission read (here and here). The announcement was made during a meeting between Energy Minister Prince Abdelaziz bin Salman and European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson. The pact will focus on accelerating private investment in the energy transition, including hydrogen, carbon capture, utilization and storage, electricity interconnection and others.

#2- Opec+ is set on drawing more capital into the oil industry, the group’s Secretary-General Hatem Al Ghais said in an interview with Asharq (watch: runtime: 10:22) yesterday. He added that the “ultimate goal of the Opec+ agreement,” beyond balancing out the market, is to promote investments in oil and gas to “supply the world with energy.” This is in tandem with “investing in new sources of energy and the needed technologies to reduce emissions.”

#3- The Kingdom has pledged some USD 500 mn to eradicate polio over the next five years, under a fresh partnership with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Reuters reports. The move makes the Saudi government among the foundation’s biggest national donors.

#4- Dubai-based luxury real estate developer Damac wants to boost its presence in Saudi: “Our focus in the next 10 years, other than Dubai, is going to be Saudi Arabia,” Damac’s founder and chairman Hussain Sajwani tells CNBC in an interview (watch: runtime: 6:33) on the sidelines of the event.

For context: Damac owns two local data centers — in addition to its real estate investments —, which are set to launch in 2Q 2024, according to Sajwani.

Neom taps Saudi banks for SAR 10 bn to finance short-term needs

Neom has secured a fresh revolving credit facility (RCF) worth SAR 10 bn from local banks to help it meet short-term financing needs as it picks up the pace for its USD 500 mn development, it said in a statement.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

What we know: The new facility, which follows a Murabaha structure, saw “strong interest” with the participation of nine local banks. The Saudi National Bank, Riyad Bank and Saudi Awwal Bank were lead arrangers for the RCF, while other participant banks included Al Rajhi, Alinma Bank, Arab National Bank, Bank Albilad, the Saudi Investment Bank, and Bank AlJazira.

Some of the city’s landmark projects have been lining up funds: Neom Green Hydrogen Company (NGHC) signed a SAR 23 bn (c. USD 6.1 bn) agreement in May last year with a number of local, regional and international banks to finance its USD 8.4 bn green hydrogen facility — slated to be the world’s largest green hydrogen production facility. It also secured a SAR 3 bn debt financing facility last year from Riyad Bank for the development of its luxury island destination Sindalah.

REMEMBER- Neom has been looking to diversify its funding sources away from the PIF, which has poured most of the funding into the project in the form of equity. It is reportedly planning a SAR-denominated bond sale in what could be the gigaproject’s first-ever sukuk sale. Officials have signaled that government projects will look abroad for financing amid policymakers’ concerns they could be seen as crowding-out private-sector borrowers by soaking up too much bank liquidity.

What they said: “This new credit facility, backed by Saudi Arabia’s leading financial institutions, is a natural fit within our wider strategy for funding. We continue to explore a variety of funding sources as we deliver transformational infrastructure assets while supporting the wider Vision 2030 program,” Neom CEO Nadhmi Al Nasr said.

SHOW AND TELL CONTINUES-

Neom hosted representatives of 52 unnamed global and local lenders to show actual progress in the futuristic city amid reports of a slower buildout, it said in a separate statement. Some 24 representatives from global banks from Germany, Spain, France, England, the US, China, Japan, and South Korea attended Neom’s show and tell. The event also saw the attendance of 13 regional banks from Qatar, Kuwait and UAE and 15 local financial institutions.

Neom just came off the road in China — officials have been particularly interested in driving interest from Hong Kong, Beijing, and Shanghai.

BACKGROUND- Bloomberg reported recently that the buildout of The Line was moving slower than planned. Officials at Neom replied quickly, bringing in top execs from some 100 global construction firms earlier this month to assure them the buildout is proceeding on schedule — and that more business is in the pipeline.

Foreign investment in Tadawul equities hit new record in 4Q 2023 to exceed SAR 400.6 bn

Foreign investment in Saudi equities rose 15.6% y-o-y in Q4 2023 to reach a new record of over SAR 400.6 bn, according to the {quarterly statistical bulletin for Q4 (pdf)} by the Capital Market Authority (CMA). The quarterly figure represents a 5.6x increase from the SAR 72.2 bn recorded in 2015 when the local exchange opened to foreign investors. Qualified foreign investors (QFIs) accounted for 80% of total foreign investment in listed Saudi equities in 2023 at SAR 320.4 bn.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

A look at offerings: The CMA approved four offerings on the main market in the fourth quarter of the year, down from seven in 4Q 2022. It also approved eight transactions on Nomu in the same period, down from 20 a year before. The bulletin showed 12 companies had filed in 4Q 2023 to sell shares or list on Tadawul’s main market, while 43 had filed for regulatory clearance on Nomu.

The current pipeline is looking robust, with the following offerings on deck for Tadawul’s main market:

Bankers leading the Miahona IPO will issue their indicative price range release alter today;
Fakeeh Care Group plans to sell a 21.5% stake on Tadawul’s main market;
Electronic retailer eXtra is looking to float a 30% stake UIHC, which operates its consumer finance arm under the Tasheel brand;
PIF-backed lender Riyad Bank is considering the listing of its investment banking arm Riyad Capital;

Hotels and resorts operator Boudl has filed to go public;
Labor agency Smasco is in the chute;
Fourth Milling Company will list before the end of June;
Singapore’s Olam Group is mulling the IPO of its Olam Agri subsidiary on Tadawul;
Hypermarket operator Lulu is said to be eyeing a dual listing on Tadawul and ADX;
Aster DM Healthcare looks set to spin-off its GCC assets and seek a dual listing on Tadawul and in the UAE.

The number of listed companies on Tadawul’s main market rose in the fourth quarter of 2023 to 231 companies, up from 223 in the same period a year earlier. The number of listed companies on parallel market Nomu stood at 79 at the end of last year, up from 46 the year before.

The number of Investment funds rose 36.6% y-o-y to a new record of 1.2k, including 291 public funds and 994 private funds. The number of subscribers in both funds grew 73.2% y-o-yin the same period to hit a record of 1.17 mn.

Real estate-led investment fund attracted the most attention among all investment funds, with REITs soaking up 66% of all private capital allocated to investment funds in the quarter and 51% of all inflows of public capital.

ESG commodities exchange Xpansiv hired to provide tech infrastructure for Saudi’s planned carbon credit exchange

One step closer for Saudi’s carbon credit exchange: The Regional Voluntary Carbon Market Company (RVCMC) has hired global ESG commodities exchange platform Xpansiv to provide a tech base for the PIF-backed company’s carbon credit exchange, which is set to launch this year, a joint statement read.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

What we know: The agreement will see Xpansiv offering buyers and sellers “institutional grade infrastructure” to ensure fast and secure transactions on the planned exchange. Xpansiv is best known for the world’s largest spot carbon credit marketplace CBL. It will offer an automatic, same-day settlement platform and a portfolio management system.

Only “high-integrity” carbon credit projects will be allowed to list: The RVCMC will set “tight guiderails for the exchange to ensure the listing of high-integrity carbon credit projects only.”

SOUND SMART- High-integrity is industry speak for credits that meet strict standards on emission reductions or removals — their data needs to be accurate and verifiable. The adoption of high-integrity credits could be what global carbon credit markets need, Reuters notes, after flaws in offsetting schemes caused carbon credit prices to fall for the first time in at least seven years in September 2024.

What they said: “Developing a carbon credit trading exchange is the next step in RVCMC’s mission to become one of the largest voluntary carbon markets in the world by 2030. Our work with Xpansiv will help us build the infrastructure the market needs for a thriving, transparent and increasingly liquid market, one that can maximize the role of carbon offsets in tackling climate change across the Global South.” RVCMC CEO Riham El Gizy said.

BACKGROUND- RVCMC sold 1.4 mn tons in 2022 in its first auction and another 2.2 mn tons of offsets in 2023.

Sabic Agri-Nutrients’ net income down 14% y-o-y in 1Q 2024 due to lower sales

SABIC AGRI-NUTRIENTS-

Sabic Agri-Nutrients’ net income dropped 14% y-o-y to SAR 841 mn in 1Q 2024 on the back of lower sales, it said in an earnings release (pdf). Its revenues fell 9% y-o-y over the same period to SAR 2.5 bn due to lower average selling prices.

Q1 was a tough quarter for the global fertilizer industry after production disruptions in Southeast Asia and US and instability at the Panama Canal and Bab Al Mandab strait forced importers to source replacement cargoes, according to Sabic Agri-Nutrients.

The upcoming quarter could prove to be “challenging” as demand falls “with the transition away from the spring agricultural season, which may reduce the pressure of price,” it said.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

RIYAD BANK-

Riyad Bank’s net income rose 25.9% y-o-y to SAR 2.2 bn in 1Q 2024, while revenues grew 1.3% y-o-y to SAR 4.1 bn, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul.

!_SuHbed_! ANB-

Arab National Bank’s net income fell 7% y-o-y to SAR 1 bn in 1Q 2024, while revenues rose 6% y-o-y to SAR 2.3 bn, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul.

SULAIMAN ALHABIB-

Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group’s net income increased 9% y-o-y to SAR 552 mn in 1Q 2024, and revenues rose 9.3% y-o-y to SAR 2.5 bn, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul.

AMIANTIT-

Saudi Arabian Amiantit turned into the black with a net income of SAR 414.4 mn in 1Q 2024, reversing a net loss of SAR 2.3 mn in the same quarter last year, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. This is due to the pipe maker raking in SAR 639 mn in accounting profits as it settled debts with Alinma Bank and Saudi National Bank, while minimizing finance costs, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Meanwhile, revenues inched up 1.4% y-o-y to SAR 200 mn over the same period.

SIPCHEM-

Sahara International Petrochemical’s net income fell 60% y-o-y to SAR 187 mn in 1Q 2024, and revenues were down 7.8% y-o-y to SAR 1.9 bn, it said in a regulatory filing to Tadawul.

YANBU NATIONAL PETROCHEMICAL (YANSAB)-

Yansab turned into the black with a net income of SAR 99.5 mn in 1Q 2024, reversing losses of SAR 370 mn in the corresponding quarter last year, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Revenues more than doubled y-o-y to SAR 1.4 bn, it said.

SSP-

Saudi Steel Pipe’s net income grew 13x y-o-y to SAR 76 mn in 1Q 2024 and revenues grew 3x y-o-y to SAR 515, it said in a filing to Tadawul.

UMM AL QURA CEMENT-

Umm Al Qura Cement’s net income rose by more than 2x to SAR 14.5 mn in 1Q 2024, and revenues grew 37.2% y-o-y to SAR 64.7 mn, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul.

Saudi Paper Manufacturing appoints Abdulrahman Al Mashal as new chairman

The board of Saudi Paper Manufacturing has appointed Abdulrahman Al Mashal (LinkedIn) as its new chairman for a three-year term, ending on 26 April 2027, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Al Mashal has been a board member at Saudi Paper Group since April 2021. He previously served as a senior equity analyst at Alinma Investment and an equity analyst at AlJazira Capital.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Nama Chemicals signs USD 45 mn murabaha financing agreement. Plus: more debt, investment and construction

DEBT WATCH-

#1- Nama Chemicals inked an agreement with the AISFinancial Group to issue up to USD 45 mn in murabaha financing in the next two years to finance its working capital, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The agreement is regulated by the Swiss Securities Authority, the disclosure reads.

#2- Tilal Al Riyadh is getting a new SAR 275 mn educational complex, which will be developed through a joint venture owned by Al Akaria (25%), Riyadh Holding (25%) and Riyadh Development (50%), according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The agreement is valid for 25 years.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

INVESTMENT WATCH-

The board of Tadawul-listed Almunajem Foods has approved setting up a food plant in Jeddah at a cost of SAR 157 mn, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The factory will span a total area of 56k sqm in Jeddah’s 3rd Industrial City. It will have a production capacity of 35k tons annually of poultry, red meat, seafood and dairy products. The project will be partly self-financed and partly from “external sources,” it said, without providing further details. It expects the project to be completed in the first quarter of 2026.

CONSTRUCTION-

Tadawul-listed Retal Urban Development will build eight residential buildings in Riyadh’s Sedra district, under a 26-months SAR 240 mn agreement with its subsidiary Building Construction, it said in a filing to the exchange.

Nobody expects the US Fed to move on interest rates this week, but pundits are still arguing about where rates will settle

Expect US interest rates to be front and center on the news agenda this week as the Federal Reserve holds its two-day federal open markets committee meeting Tuesday and Wednesday.

There’s no clear trigger in sight for the Fed to start cutting rates, and Fed boss Jay Powell has made clear that the central bank is in no hurry after a surprise uptick in US inflation this year.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

And some traders are now putting money on what the Financial Times says was until recently “unthinkable”: The (still small) chance that the Fed could raise rates once again, so fearful is it of inflation. Options data reviewed by the salmon-colored paper suggests there’s a 20% probability the Fed will raise rates in the next 12 months — compared to a probability of less than 10% at the beginning of the year. Food for thought.

Perhaps the bigger question in the long term: Where do rates settle, the Wall Street Journal wonders this morning. “At issue is the neutral rate of interest: the rate that keeps the demand and supply of savings in equilibrium, leading to stable economic growth and inflation.”

What’s the neutral interest rate (or “r-star” or r* in insider-speak) likely to be? It’s tough to tell, because you can only really judge it in your rearview mirror. Five years ago, many figured it was below 2.4%. Today, with US businesses and consumers shrugging off interest rates north of 5%, some wonder if it isn’t set higher thanks to new dynamics in the global economy.

What dynamics? Per the WSJ: “Soaring government deficits and strong investment driven by the green-energy transition and an artificial-intelligence-fueled frenzy for electricity-intensive data centers. Higher productivity from AI could also lift long-run growth” and, with it, the neutral rate.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian benchmarks are in the green in early trading this morning, with the Shanghai Composite the only outlier (it’s down less than 0.1%). Markets are closed in Japan today for Shōwa Day, which honors the birthday of Emperor Hirohito. Stock futures for European and major US indexes are comfortably in the green right now, suggesting they’re likely to open in positive territory later today.

TASI	12,231	-0.2% (YTD: +2.2%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,545	+0.4% (YTD: -0.3%)
NomuC	26,231	-1.7% (YTD: +6.9%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	3.75 Buy	3.75 Sell
Interest rates	6% repo	5.5% reverse repo
EGX30	24,640	-4.9% (YTD: -1%)
ADX	9,042	+0.01% (YTD: -5.6%)
DFM	4,148	-0.5% (YTD: +2.2%)
S&P 500	5,100	+1% (YTD: +6.9%)
FTSE 100	8,140	+0.8% (YTD: +5.3%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,007	+1.4% (YTD: +10.7%)
Brent crude	USD 89.50	+0.6%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 1.92	-3.2%
Gold	USD 2,347	+0.2%
BTC	USD 63,602	+0.5% (YTD: +50.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.2% yesterday on turnover of SAR 4.9 bn. The index is up 2.2% YTD.

In the green: Thimar (+9.9%), SSP (+5.1%) and APC (+5.1%).

In the red: Chubb (-9.9%), AlSagr Ins. (-8%) and Salama (-7.2%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 1.7% yesterdayon turnover of SAR 31.3 mn. The index is up 6.9% YTD.

In the green: View (+9.4%), Watani Steel (+5.4%) and Nofoth (+4.8%).

In the red: United Mining (-10.6%), Meyar (-7.7%) and Apico (-7.3%)

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

#1- Leading food company Savola submitted an application to the Capital Market Authority (CMA) to more than double its capital to SAR 11.3 bn through a SAR 6 bn rights issue, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul.

#2- STC’s shareholders approved a special one-time dividend of SAR 4.9 bn at SAR 1 per share for 2023, it said in a filing to Tadawul (pdf). Payments are set to roll out on Wednesday, 15 May, it added.

#3- Shareholders of Nomu-listed Marble Design approved a dividend payout of SAR 10.2 mn at SAR 1.7 a share for 2H 2023, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul.

CALENDAR

APRIL

27-29 April (Saturday-Tuesday): RiseUp Saudi at KACST, Riyadh.

27-30 April (Saturday-Wednesday): Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) Group's 2024 Annual Meetings, Riyadh.

27-30 April (Saturday-Wednesday): Saudi International Luxury Week 2024, Jeddah.

28-29 April (Sunday-Monday): World Economic Forum Special Meeting, Riyadh.

28-29 April (Sunday-Monday): International Conference on Economics Finance and Accounting 2024, Riyadh.

28-30 April (Sunday-Tuesday): Saudi Mechanical Engineering Technology Conference and Exhibition 2024, Al Khobar.

29 April-1 May (Monday-Wednesday): Future Hospitality Summit at Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

30 April-2 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Automechanika Riyadh 2024 at Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center.

30 April (Tuesday): GC Summit Saudi Arabia 2024, Riyadh.

30 April (Tuesday): HR Leaders Conference Riyadh 2024, Riyadh.

MAY

2-5 May (Thursday-Sunday): Townhall Expo, Riyadh.

6-9 May (Monday-Thursday): Saudi Smart Manufacturing, Riyadh.

6-9 May (Monday-Thursday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh.

13-15 May (Monday-Wednesday): Smart Future Expo, Riyadh.

13 May (Monday): Saudi Giga Projects, Riyadh.

14-15 May (Tuesday and Wednesday): Saudi Great Futures, Riyadh.

19-21 May (Sunday-Tuesday): Saudi Energy Convention, Riyadh.

20-21 May (Monday-Tuesday): Future Projects Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

20-22 May (Monday-Wednesday): Future Aviation Forum 2024, Riyadh.

21-23 May (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Food Show, Riyadh.

27-28 May (Monday-Tuesday): Smart Data & AI Summit Saudi, JW Marriott Hotel, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in May:

Global Trade Review (GTR): KSA
Saudi Energy Convention

JUNE

4-7 June (Tuesday-Friday): Saudi Sports Show, Riyadh.

4-7 June (Tuesday-Friday): Aqarat Expo, Riyadh.

5 June (Wednesday): World Environment Day.

14-22 June (Friday-Saturday): Banks and capital markets closed for Eid Al Adha holiday.

AUGUST

12-15 August (Monday-Thursday): The Saudi Food Expo, Riyadh

SEPTEMBER

11-12 September (Wednesday-Thursday): The Saudi Event Show, Riyadh.

17-19 September (Tuesday-Thursday): EV Auto Show, Riyadh.

24-26 September (Tuesday-Thursday) Saudi Infrastructure Expo, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Monday): National Day (national holiday)

NOVEMBER

2-9 November (Saturday- Saturday): WTA Finals, Riyadh.

25-27 November (Monday-Wednesday): World Investment Conference, Riyadh.

26-28 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Saudi Electricity Expo, Riyadh.

11-14 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh.

DECEMBER

2-13 December (Monday-Friday): Conference of the Parties (COP16) to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2024:

The AFC Champions League Elite

2025

FEBRUARY

10-13 February (Monday-Thursday): Leap 2025, the Kingdom’s premier tech investment conference.

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