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Economy contracted in ‘23 + an absolute ton of Aramco news

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Aramco is looking to ramp up LNG investments with US, Australian partners

Good morning, friends. We welcome the first day of Ramadan with a light issue. Aramco’s results and an unexpected slowdown in economic growth last year are the two big stories of the day.

ALSO- Happy Flag Day, everyone. The observance is a normal workday.

So, when do we eat? Maghrib is at 6:01 pm today. You’ll have until fajr prayers at 4:47 am tomorrow to finish your sohour.

The weather today in the capital city is looking warm (33°C) with wind picking up as early as 11amand continuing through taraweeh prayers. Look for sun with cloudy periods and a high of 24°C on Tuesday.

UP FIRST- King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud called on the international community to assume its responsibilities and “put an end to brutal crimes” by Israel against Gaza, state news agency SPA reported yesterday.

“It pains us that we observe Ramadan this year amid the suffering of Palestinians,” he said in a speech delivered by Media Minister Salman Al Dosari ahead of the Holy Month.

DATA POINTS-

#1- The Industrial production Index (IPI) fell 8.8% y-o-y in January 2024, state statistics agency Gastat said in a report (pdf) yesterday. The drop came on the back of a decline in mining and quarrying activity, which accounts for 61.4% of the index weight.

#2- Riyadh Season drew 20 mn local and foreign visitors between the start of the festival in October and its end this past Saturday, General Entertainment Authority (GEA) Chairman Turki Al Sheikh said in a statement (pdf) yesterday. He did not provide a breakdown of visitors from outside the country. The 20 mn figure is well above the 10-12 mn organizers were hoping to see pass through the festival.

#3- Spending on credit cards grew 17% y-o-y in 2023, American Express Saudi Arabia (Amex) CEO Fahad Al Guthami told Argaam. E-commerce transactions grew 40% y-o-y last year to over SAR 900 mn, he said, putting the number of POS machines at more than one mn.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- UAE-based logistics company Aramex has inaugurated its regional headquarters in Riyadh in a bid to boost the company’s capacity to serve both new and existing businesses in the region, according to a press release. It first announced its plan to establish a regional HQ here back in 2021.

#2- Digital security firm Elm is still in talks to buy the Public Investment Fund (PIF)’s stake in business service provider Thiqah, Elm CEO AbdulRahman Aljadhai told Al Arabiya in an interview (watch, runtime: 7:06). “The talks are moving in a good direction,” Aljadhai said, adding that Thiqah’s product offering aligns with Elm’s growth strategy and would help the company boost its market position. Elm began talks in June to fully acquire the PIF’s stake in Thiqah. The PIF is a majority shareholder in both Elm and Thiqah.

#3- We have a timeline for Ceer’s planned EV production facility: Ceer — the Kingdom’s first electric vehicle brand — expects to complete works at its electric vehicle complex “within two years,” Chief Public Relations Officer Mohammed Abuazzah told Al Arabiya in an interview yesterday (watch, runtime: 6:59). He refrained from providing an exact figure for the plant’s production capacity but said it was estimated in the multiples of 100k of vehicles. Ceer awarded last week a SAR 5 bn (USD 1.3 bn) construction contract for the complex to local contractor Modern Building Leaders.

#4- The Royal Commission for Riyadh broke ground on the 75.4 hectare AlUrubah Park, state news agency SPA reported yesterday. The park will be home to a 3 km panoramic pathway showcasing a full view of the capital’s landmarks. It is part of the ambitious urban forestation project Green Riyadh Initiative, which aims to plant 7.5 mn trees across the capital and raise vegetation cover to 9% of total area.

In context: 75.5 hectares is big enough to enclose about 122 football pitches.

#5- A new Saudization target rate for private-sector dental professionals went into effect yesterday, according to a post on X. The new 35% rate, up from 30% previously, covers general practitioners, dental consultants, surgeons, dental practitioners for children, and orthodontists. It applies to private-sector establishments employing three or more people, according to a procedural guide (pdf).

Saudization hitting the engineering sector in the summer: Private companies employing five or more engineers will be required to hire Saudi nationals for at least 25% of their engineering headcount starting 21 July. The rate is up from an applied 20% Saudization target for engineering professions.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s a quiet Monday morning in the global business press — and quieter still across the Arab world with the start of Ramadan. No single story has gripped the imagination of the business press.

Dueling “red lines”: Joe Biden says that Israeli forces invading Rafah would be a “red line,” prompting Benjamin Netanyahu to reply that his red line is preventing another Hamas attack. Biden told MSNBC on Saturday that he would not accept “30k more Palestinians dead.”

Palestinians in Rafah are starting the Holy Month on the verge of starvation. We have no words.

THE WEEK AHEAD:

  • OPEC will publish its monthly report tomorrow, while the International Energy Agencywill release its oil market report for the month on Thursday.
  • Joe Biden will present his 2025 budget proposal to Congress later today.
  • Russian voters go to the polls Friday through Sunday, with Vladimir Putin expected to be elected to a fifth term as president.

OSCAR WRAP-UP

The 2024 Oscars just wrapped up, with the red carpet being rolled up as we hit dispatch. The most notable wins went to:

  • Oppenheimer sweep: Cillian Murphy won best actor | Christopher Nolan won best director | Robert Downey Jr. won best supporting actor | It also won the most prestigious award of the night, best picture.
  • Best actress went to Emma Stone for her role in Poor Things.
  • Best original song went to Billie Eilish’s What Was I Made For on the Barbie soundtrack.
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ECONOMY

Real GDP contracts 0.8% y-o-y in 2023 due to fall in oil activity

Real GDP shrinks in 2023: The Kingdom’s real GDP dipped 0.8% y-o-y in 2023 on the back of a 9% fall in oil activity, according to figures from state statistics agency Gastat (pdf). Non-oil activity rose 4.4% y-o-y and government expenditure grew 2.1% y-o-y over the same period.

The gov’t had penciled-in near-zero growth: The government had estimated that GDP would rise 0.03% in 2023, with 6% growth in the non-oil sector. The current forecast is for the economy to rebound in 2024 with 4.4% growth, according to the budget statement (pdf).

REMEMBER- The Kingdom cut oil production by 500k barrels per day in April 2023 in a bid to arrest falling oil prices. That figure became a 1 mn bpd voluntary cut by June. Though originally seen ending in December 2023, the government extended the 1 mn bpd cut through 1Q 2024 and now seems poised to continue it through June 2024, maintaining production at 9 mn bpd.

A look at Q4: Real GDP shrank 4.3% on an annual basis during the fourth quarter of the year, the figures showed. The contraction was driven by a steep 16.2% decline in oil activity, which accounts for c. 40% of GDP (and about 75% of government revenues). Non-oil activity was up 4.2% y-o-y, with government activity also reporting a 3.1% growth on an annual basis.

Steeper than initially forecast: Real GDP was expected to contract by 3.7% y-o-y in the fourth quarter of the year, preliminary data (pdf) from Gastat showed in January.

Outlook for 2024: The Finance Ministry is targeting GDP growth of 4.4% in its budget for the current fiscal year, Finance Minister Mohamed Al Jadaan said in December. The IMF has cut its 2024 growth forecast for the Kingdom to 2.7%, pointing to the combined effects of lower oil prices and production cuts.

SOUND SMART- The GDP figure was calculated using the chain-linking methodology, which Saudi Arabia leveraged for the first time in the region — and first among G20 countries. IT estimates real growth rates against a continuously updated value of goods and services produced, rather than against a fixed base year for prices and weights. This method is widely believed to result in more accurate calculations.

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EARNINGS WATCH

Aramco’s latest earnings, dividends, outlook

Aramco recorded its second-highest ever net income in 2023 despite falling 25% y-o-y to USD 121.3 bn on sagging oil prices and lower production, according to its latest earnings release (pdf). Revenues fell 17.6% y-o-y to USD 440 bn over the same period, the company said in a filing to Tadawul. “Our resilience and agility contributed to healthy cash flows and high levels of profitability, despite a backdrop of economic headwinds,” said President and CEO Amin Nasser.

On a quarterly basis, the oil giant’s bottom line fell 18% y-o-y to USD 27.4 bn in 4Q 2023, and the top line was down 5.7% y-o-y to USD 122.5 bn, according to data seen by Argaam.

Capex rose 28% y-o-y to USD 49.7 bn in 2023 and is expected to come in between USD 48 bn and USD 58 bn this year. Meanwhile, capex is expected to drop by USD 40 bn in the next four years due to government instructions to cap the maximum production target to 12 mn bpd. 85% of the capex in 2023 was organic, signaling a focus on core and existing business and a sign of the company’s push for growth and efficiency, it said.

Dividend payouts rose 30% y-o-y to USD 98 bn in 2023 of which USD 43.1 bn was performance-linked. The government relies heavily on Aramco’s dividend to bridge the budget deficit and finance its diversification away from oil — oil accounts for about 75% of government revenues at present.

A big pot for PIF: The Public Investment Fund’s (PIF) will take away c. USD 5 bn in quarterly dividend payments, Bloomberg reports. The sovereign fund doubled up its stake in Aramco to 16% this week, a transfer of stock worth about USD 164.

Aramco is eyeing more investment in China, where oil demand remains robust, Reuters reported yesterday, citing statements by Nasser during a media call that followed the company’s results. "So far we are in the early part of 2024, demand is healthy and growing in China,” he said.

Aramco + MidOcean on LNG: Aramco could explore with LNG company MidOcean Energy the possibility of investing in LNG projects outside of Australia, he said. “We are partnering with MidOcean in Australia and we might partner with them in other enclaves,” Nasser said. His remarks came months after Aramco agreed to acquire a strategic minority stake in MidOcean Energy for USD 500 mn, marking its first foray into global LNG. Aramco is still awaiting necessary approvals for the transaction to close. MidOcean Energy has been seeking to acquire interests in four Australian LNG projects.

And a play for LNG in the US: Nasser confirmed that Aramco was kicking the tires on investments in US LNG projects, stopping short of getting into specifics. “We are in discussion with a number of companies,” he said.

Talks on Aramco acquiring a 15%-20% stake in a powertrain JV by French automaker Renault and China’s Geely are still ongoing, he said. The state-owned oil company signed a letter of intent last year to grab a minority stake in the planned JV which aims to develop and supply internal combustion engines (ICE) and hybrid technologies. The investment is part of a plan by Aramco to up investments in new, lower-emission technologies.

Market reax: Aramco’s shares were up 1.4% to SAR 32.2 apiece by the end of trading yesterday.

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EARNINGS WATCH

The latest earnings roundup as FY 2024 season continues in Saudi Arabia

Strap in and get ready for a quick overview:

TADAWUL GROUP-

Saudi Tadawul Group Holding’s net income fell 8% y-o-y to SAR 390 mn in 2023, and revenues dipped 1.6% to SAR 1.1 bn, it said in an earnings release (pdf). The Group’s BoD has approved a dividend payout of SAR 276 mn at SAR 2.3 per share for 2023, it said in a disclosure.

MARAFIQ-

Marafiq saw its net income drop 38% y-o-y to SAR 526 mn in 2023, while revenues inched down 1.8% y-o-y to SAR 6.4 bn, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The sharp decline in bottom line was attributed to a 74% increase in financing costs and a 1.78% y-o-y fall in revenues, which it explains comes as a result of decreased demand for power from some major customers in Yanbu Industrial City, and despite the increase in revenues from its water and gas sectors.

ELM-

Digital security firm Elm’s net income increased 46% y-o-y to SAR 1.4 bn in 2023, and revenues rose 28% y-o-y to SAR 5.9 bn, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The company’s BoD has approved a dividend payout of SAR 311 mn at SAR 4 per share for 2H 2023, it said in a separate disclosure. Payments will be made to eligible shareholders on Monday, 25 March.

ARDCO-

Arriyadh Development’s net income fell 9.6% y-o-y to SAR 271.5 mn in 2023, while revenues rose 31% y-o-y to SAR 339 mn, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The company’s BoD has approved a dividend payout of SAR 89 mn at SAR 0.5 per share for 2023, it said in a separate disclosure.

SAUDI CHEMICAL-

Saudi Chemical’s net income doubled y-o-y to SAR 183 mn in 2023, and revenues rose 31.4% y-o-y to SAR 4.9 bn, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul.

BURUJ-

Buruj Cooperative Insurance turned into the black with a net income of SAR 20 mn in 2023, while revenues declined 10.5% y-o-y to SAR 373 mn, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul.

MULKIA INVESTMENT-

Mulkia Investment’s net income increased 27.5% y-o-y to SAR 21 mn in 2023, and revenues rose 19% y-o-y to SAR 44 mn, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul.

GAS ARABIAN SERVICES-

GAS’ net income increased 21% y-o-y to SAR 81.5 mn in 2023, and revenues rose 45.5% y-o-y to SAR 721.5 mn, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul.

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SAUDI IN THE NEWS

What will it take for financial and professional services firms to set up regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia?

What will it take for banks as well as financial and professional services firms to set up HQs in Saudi? That’s at the heart of the Financial Times spotlight on the regional headquarters program, noting that some 350 corporates have set up their Mideast bases here.

Banks and professional services firms are more wary than some corporates, the salmon-colored paper writes, diving into the topic with more finesses than did the NYT’s DealBook, which recently indulged its inner Orientalist in looking at the Kingdom.

The issue for financial services firms: “It’s what the regulatory framework is going to be … [Saudi is] not a financial centre set-up,” said a senior exec at an international bank.

The ask: For King Abdullah Financial District to have its own financial regulator along the same lines as Dubai’s DIFC.

For professional services: It’s about moving revenue-generating partners into a setup that “is not intended to generate revenue,” the FT writes. “The regional headquarter rules ‘were drafted more with the mindset of companies that sell products rather than those who sell services,’ said Michael Bessey, a director at consultancy Albright Stonebridge Group’s Middle East and north Africa practice.”

First up- American performer Alicia Keys (pictured, above, at this year’s US Super Bowl) and rapper Pharrell Williams were took flack from the Guardian for performing in Saudi on International Women’s Day at the F1 Grand Prix.

Keys’ on-point retort: “I am thrilled to be back on stage, this time in Jeddah, performing in a place I have never performed in before, and in a way I never have in this region,” she said. “I’m also so inspired to connect in a meaningful way with the amazing women there to discuss cultural, creative and boundary-pushing narratives we are collectively and individually leading. In light of International Women’s Day, it’s the perfect time to discuss important issues affecting us,” she added.

MEANWHILE-

ALSO- Bloomberg ’s Fahad Abuljadayel and Christine Burke took a deep dive into the PIF’s sports investments, what it means for the local industry and how it aligns with the Kingdom’s strategy to diversify away from oil. The BBC gave some digital ink to Aramco’s latest results.

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ALSO ON OUR RADAR

GAS inches closer to the main market. Plus: Tech, manufacturing, logistics

IPO WATCH-

GAS could soon graduate to Tadawul’s main market: Gas Arabian Services (GAS) major shareholders is set to debut an additional 10% stake on the market in a secondary share sale to meet the requirements to transition to Tadawul’s main market. GAS hired Yaqeen Capital in January as financial advisor for the potential transaction.

ALSO- GAS has projects worth SAR 2.2 bn in the pipeline, including a SAR 730 mn project carrying over from 2023, CEO Faisal AlDabal told Argaam in an interview yesterday. GAS also has long-term contracts with Aramco and Saudi Basic Industries (SABIC) in the energy and petrochemical sectors, and long-term investments in four unnamed local manufacturing exporting companies, he said.

MANUFACTURING-

#1- Naqi Water transfers land lease rights to PepsiCo: Naqi Water inked a SAR 9.5 mn contract transferring rental rights for a plot of land in Riyadh’s second industrial city — owned by the Saudi Authority for Industrial Cities and Technology Zones (Modon) — to PepsiCo KSA, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul yesterday. The local beverage company said it has found a better-suited location for a planned factory.

#2- Lana Medical opened a treatment plant for high-risk medical waste in Hail Industrial City, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul yesterday. This brings Lana’s operating capacities across its medical waste treatment facilities to 85 tons a day. No further details were provided.

TECH-

Solutions to provide Aramco with computer gear: The Arabian Internet and Communications Services Company (Solutions), the tech subsidiary of telecom operator STC, signed a five-year framework agreement with Aramco to supply the oil giant with computing devices and accessories, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul yesterday. No exact financial details were provided on the agreement, but solutions are predicting that it will exceed 5% of its revenues in 2023 which by our math brings the contract value at above SAR 550 mn.

TELECOM-

Keir International has secured a SAR 30.7 mn contract from the Interior Ministry to oversee the ministry’s fiber optic network in Riyadh and Makkah, along with providing maintenance services, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul yesterday. The contract is set to be signed on 7 May.

LOGISTICS-

Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) signed a three-year contract with Danish shipping giant Maersk to increase the number of Maersk containers transported through its trains between Dammam’s King Abdulaziz Port and Riyadh’s Dry Port, according to a post on X by SAR. The partnership would help raise the Kingdom’s ranking in the World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index, maintain roads infrastructure and reduce emissions.

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PLANET FINANCE

Driving the conversation this week + Hedgies, bulge bracket balk at new India rules

It’s crickets on Planet Finance as traders gear up for a new workweek that will see 2023 earnings season limp to a close.

Driving the conversation this week: Nvidia’s big Friday slump has folks wondering what’s in story for the chipmaker as well as fellow AI darlings TSMC, AMD, ARM, and Super Micro Computer. We’re also looking at:

  • Oil reports from both Opec and the IEA
  • Inflation figures from the US, India, and a handful of European nations

Speaking of India: Hedge funds are threatening to pull out and bulge bracket banks are getting antsy because of “controversial new rules introduced in response to last year’s short seller attack on Adani, one of the country’s biggest companies,” the Financial Times writes.

Tell us who owns what: The rules from regulator Sebi would require foreign investors with more than USD 3 bn in Indian equities to “real all their end investors.” JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas, Société Générale, and UBS all wrote to Sebi last month expressing concerns about the changes.


GLOBAL MARKETS this morning: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is the only Asian benchmark in the green this morning (+1.4% at dispatch time) as Asian shares sagged in the first day of trading this week. The Nikkei leads the losers, down 2.2% as we prepared to hit “send” on this morning’s issue.

The look ahead: Stock futures are down slightly after the Dow posted its worst week since October 2024. European benchmarks also seem set for a soft open later today.

TASI

12,618.62

+0.3 (YTD: +5.4%)

MSCI Tadawul 30

1,603.58

+0.04% (YTD: +3.4%)

USD : SAR (SAMA)

3.75 Sell

3.75 Buy

Interest rates

6% repo

5.5% reverse repo

EGX30

32,919.95

+5.2% (YTD: +32.2%)

ADX

9,234.47

+0.1% (YTD: -3.6%)

DFM

4,253.08

+0.4% (YTD: +4.8%)

S&P 500

5,123.69

-0.7% (YTD: +7.4%)

FTSE 100

7,659.74

-0.4% (YTD: -1%)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,961.11

-0.3% (YTD: +9.7%)

Brent crude

USD 81.93

-0.2%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 1.83

+1.4%

Gold

USD 2,186.80

+0.1%

BTC

USD 68,660.75

+0.2% (YTD: +209.4%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The TASI rose 0.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 7.6 bn. The index is up 5.4% YTD.

In the green: Saudi Steel Pipe (+10%), Saudi Chemical (+9.9%) and East Pipes (+9.9%).

In the red: AlArabia (-10%), Tadawul Group (-3.9%) and SRMG (-2.8%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

#1- Mobily’s BoD has approved a 2.5 mn self-financed share buyback, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul yesterday. The move — which is still subject to EGM approval — falls in line with the company’s long-term incentive plan. The repurchased shares will have no voting rights, the telecom operator said.

#2- Walaa Cooperative Ins. Co is seeking Capital Market Authority (CMA) approval for a capital increase, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul yesterday. The amended rights issuance will see Walaa offer 42.5 mn ordinary shares at SAR 11 a piece to raise a total capital of SAR 467.5 mn instead of the initial recommendation of SAR 425 mn, according to the disclosure.


APRIL

8-11 April (Monday-Thursday): Saudi Super Cup, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): Eid al-Fitr (tbc based on the start date of Ramadan)

14-21 April (Sunday-Monday): IMF and World Bank spring meetings, Washington, DC

28-29 April (Sunday-Monday): World Economic Forum’s Special Meeting, Riyadh.

29 April-1 May: Future Hospitality Summit at Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

MAY

2-5 May (Thursday-Sunday): TownhallExpo, Riyadh.

19-21 May (Sunday-Tuesday): Saudi Energy Convention, Riyadh.

21-23 May (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Food Show, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in May:

  • Global Trade Review (GTR): KSA
  • Saudi Energy Convention

JUNE

5 June (Wednesday): World Environment Day.

Signposted to happen sometime in June:

  • Eid Al-Adha (national holiday)

AUGUST

12-15 August (Monday-Thursday): The Saudi Food Expo, Riyadh

SEPTEMBER

11-12 September (Wednesday-Thursday): The Saudi Event Show, Riyadh.

23 September (Monday): National Day (national holiday)

DECEMBER

2-13 December (Monday-Friday): Conference of the Parties (COP16) to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2024:

2025

FEBRUARY

10-13 February (Monday-Thursday): Leap 2025, the Kingdom’s premier tech investment conference

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