Good morning, wonderful people, and welcome to a new week. It’s a relatively calm start to one of the last work weeks of the year.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer lands in the region today for a GCC trip that will start in the UAE — where he will meet with Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan — then take him to the Kingdom where he is scheduled to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Bloomberg reports. The trip marks Starmer’s first to the Gulf since taking office.

On the agenda: Starmer’s time in the Gulf will see him push for new freetrade agreements and discuss the regional security at large, with a focus on the need to secure a ceasefire in Gaza.

ALSO- The government rolled over a USD 3 bn deposit at Pakistan’s central bank for one more year, after it was set to mature on 5 December, the State Bank of Pakistan said (pdf) on Thursday. The deposit was originally made in 2021, and it was rolled over in 2022 and 2023.Pakistan received last year USD 2 bn in financial assistance from the Kingdom, which has been among key backers of the crisis-hit country, which is struggling from depleted foreign reserves.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- Monsha’at Import and Export Week kicks off today in Riyadh, Madinah, Jeddah, and Al Khobar, according to a statement. The event, which runs until Thursday, will see key players from the public and private sectors come together to support SMEs in the Kingdom.

#2- How much did the economy grow last quarter? The GDP growth rate for 3Q 2024 is set to be released today by the General Authority for Statistics (Gastat), while the industrial production index for October will be out on Tuesday.

ICYMI- The World Bank downgraded its forecast for the Saudi economy to 1.1%for this year, compared to the 2.5% it had forecast in May. Meanwhile, the Finance Ministry is targeting 0.8% GDP growth for 2024, and 4.6% for next year.

WEATHER- Riyadh will see cloudy skies today, with temperatures reaching a high of 27°C and a low of 16°C. Makkah will see similar cloud cover, with a high of 34°C and a low of 21°C. Dammam will have a high of 28°C and a low of 14°C.

PSAs-

#1- Businesses subject to withholding tax must file their November tax returns by Tuesday via The Saudi Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority’s (Zatca) website, according to a statement. Missing the deadline could result in penalties of 1% of the unpaid tax for every 30 days of delay.

#2- More flights between KSA and Pakistan: Pakistan’s budget airline, Fly Jinnah, expanded its flight frequencies to three cities in the Kingdom — Dammam, Riyadh, and Jeddah — Trade Arabia reports. The airline will operate daily flights between Lahore to Jeddah, three weekly flights to Riyadh, and three to Dammam.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Nomu-listed Obeikan Glass Company filed an official request to the bourse to make the leap to the main market, after securing board approval for the move, it said in a filing to Tadawul.

Remember- Tadawul issuers must meet a minimum market capitalization of SAR 300 mn, up from SAR 10 mn for Nomu companies. In addition, Tadawul issuers must float at least 30% of issued shares, compared to only 20% or SAR 30 mn worth of shares — whichever is lower — for Nomu companies.

#2- Several Chinese railway firms are vying to construct the Riyadh Metro’s seventh line, a 65 km route connecting Qiddiya City, King Salman Park, Diriyah Gate, New Murabba, and King Khaled International Airport, China’s ambassador to the Kingdom Chang Hua told Aleqtisadiah.

Remember- The Riyadh Metro kicked off operations last week, spanning 176 km with 84 stations across six lines.

#3- Eldridge Industries is looking into setting up shop in the Saudi market, which would mark its second regional office after the inauguration of its Abu Dhabi office, Chairman and CEO of the US-based investor Todd Boehly told Bloomberg. Boehly pointed at Saudi Arabia’s promising sports, entertainment, infrastructure, and media sectors, adding that there’s “so much infrastructure to build” here.

#4- Saudi Arabia is gearing up to launch a comprehensive volunteer strategy in 2025 which “aims to empower 500k volunteers” and “promote environmental volunteerism,” Environment Minister Abdulrahman AlFadley said, state news agency SPA reports. More than 133k volunteers worked under the ministry’s initiatives this year, bringing in a return of SAR 65 mn, the minister said.

#5- Saudi Arabia is offering 50k sqm of land for exploration of minerals in 2025, Argaam reported quoting Deputy Industry and Mineral Resources Minister Khalid Al Mudaifer.

REMEMBER– Saudi Arabia has big mining plans: The ministry launched a fresh incentive package worth SAR 685 mn earlier this year as part of efforts to expand the sector and tap reserves of gold, phosphate and others. The goal is to attract local and foreign mining investors as part of a push to become a global hub for metals critical for the energy transition and become an EV manufacturing hub. The nation’s untapped mineral resources are now worth as much as USD 2.5 tn, or 90% more than the last forecast in 2016.

DATA POINTS-

The Kingdom saw a 121% y-o-y increase in issued tour guide licenses in 9M 2024, which exceeded 2.5k, state news agency SPA reports. Meanwhile, tourism activities licenses issued during the same period rose 49% y-o-y to 2.6k.

OIL WATCH-

Opec+ extends production cuts yet again: Opec+ pushed back the start date of production increases by three months to April 2025, with the overall production increases slated to be gradually implemented until the end of 2026, according to a statement from the oil cartel. The decision came on the back of weak demand and rising non-Opec production levels. The story got ink in Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, and FT.

Remember- Opec+ had initially planned to start phasing out production cuts in October, but later pushed the plans back as oil prices fell.

The breakdown: The current cuts total 5.85 mn barrels per day (bbl / d), or 5.7% of global demand, divided into three tranches — 2 mn bbl / d by all members, 1.65 mn bbl / d in the first stage of voluntary cuts by eight members (including Saudi Arabia), and another 2.2 mn bbl / d in the second phase of the voluntary cuts. On Thursday, Opec+ extended the first two tranches by a year until the end of 2026 and prolonged the 2.2 mn bbl / d tranche until September 2026.

The rationale: Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman told CNBC it would be unfeasible to add 2.5 mn bbl / d in one year, stressing Opec’s need to balance supply-demand fundamentals with market sentiment.

Oil price forecasts are a mixed bag for 2025: Morgan Stanley upgraded its Brent crude price forecast to USD 70 a barrel in 3Q and 4Q 2025, up from USD 68 and USD 66, respectively. ING penciled in USD 71 a barrel for the whole year, up from USD 69, Bloomberg reports. Meanwhile, HSBC maintained its forecast for the year at USD 70 a barrel, and Bank of America expects Brent to average USD 65 a barrel, according to Reuters.

SPORTS-

#1- The scoreboard for Saudi Pro League matchday 11 of 34:

• Al Shabab vs Al Fateh: 2-2
• Al Kholood vs Al Qadisiya: 0-3
• Al Orobah vs Al Riyadh : 0-1
• Al Ittihad vs Al Nassr: 2-1
• Al Khaleej vs Al Ettifaq:1-2
• Al Hilal vs Al Raed: 3-2
• Al Taawoun vs Al Ahli: 2-4

#2- Saudi Arabia’s 2034 World Cup bid may be ratified by applause instead of a vote at Fifa’s online congress on Wednesday, BBC reports, citing sources it says are in the know. The Kingdom is running unopposed to host the games in 2034 as are Spain, Morocco, and Portugal for the 2030 World Cup.

Among the supporters: Germany’s national football association (DFB) expressed full support for Saudi Arabia’s bid. There was not a single vote against this direction, said DFB President Bernd Neuendorf, DW reports.

#3- Saudi Arabia’s Ramzy Al Duhami secured gold in Jump Saudi’s CSI4* competition, qualifying him for the 2025 Show Jumping World Cup. The German David Will came in second, while the Saudi Abdullah Al Sharbatly came in third place, Jump Saudi said in a post on X.

#4- Torque GC Captain Joaquin Niemann took a narrow one-stroke lead at the USD 5 mn PIF Saudi International as he hit a 6-under 65 to sit at 17 under par, fending off challenges from RangeGoats GC’s Peter Uihlein and Legion XIII’s Caleb Surratt, according to a coverage from Liv Golf.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The increasingly likely collapse of Bashar Al Assad’s regime dominates the digital front pages this morning, as insurgents push closer to Damascus after a lightning offensive that captured key cities, including the full capture of Homs in the early hours of the morning. The capital is now cut off from the regime’s strongholds along the coast and the rebels are continuing to encircle Damascus.

Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, and Russia called on the warring parties to find a political solution in a joint statement after the nations’ foreign ministers met in Doha. Taking a decidedly different approach, President-elect Donald Trump took to X, stating, “The United States should have nothing to do with it. This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved.” (Wall Street Journal | Bloomberg | Financial Times | Reuters | Associated Press | New York Times | Guardian)

Also making headlines is South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol narrowly avoiding being impeached for imposing martial law after lawmakers from his People Power Party staged a walkout during the parliamentary vote, preventing the opposition from reaching the two-thirds majority needed to remove him from office. Yoon still appears to be on the out, however, with the leader of his party telling reporters after the vote that the president would resign. (Wall Street Journal | Bloomberg | Financial Times | Reuters | New York Times | Guardian)

While in business news, Allianz has paused merger talks with asset manager Amundi over disagreements on structure and control, effectively halting plans to create what would have been a EUR 2.8 tn asset management giant. (Financial Times)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Red Sea International Film Festival will run from 5-14 December in Jeddah.

The largest online real estate auction in the Kingdom is scheduled to take place on Saturday, 14 December, offering 103 properties across Riyadh, Eastern Province, Madinah, Qassim, and Asir. The auction will be organized by Al Joud Real Estate and hosted on the Saudi Auctions platform.

The two-day Impact Makers Forum (ImpaQ) is set to open its doors on 18 December, bringing together media influencers, industry experts, and digital content creators in Riyadh’s Mayadeen Hall.

The Fortune Global Forum is coming to Riyadh in December 2025, according to a pressrelease. The forum serves as a platform for the leaders of the world’s largest companies, policymakers, and other influential figures to discuss global economic and business trends, challenges, and opportunities.

The FIFAe Finals 2024 returns to Riyadh from 5-12 December at SEF Arena, BLVD Riyadh City, according to a press release. This year marks the first time the event will feature multiple esports titles, including the FIFAe World Cup with Rocket League (5-8 December) and two FIFAe World Cups with eFootball (9-12 December) on console and mobile. With a total prize pool of USD 450k, the event will showcase talent from 18 countries. Fans can attend in person or watch live on FIFAe’s Twitch channel. Register here.

The International Forum for Saudi Reef is scheduled for 16-18 December in the Intercontinental Al Ahsa, covering sustainable agriculture, rural entrepreneurship, and technology in farming, alongside a three-day exhibition of rural practices, handicrafts, and local work. Register here.

The Future Hospitality Summit will take place between 14-16 April, 2025 at Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah hotel in Riyadh. The forum will bring together top executives and decision-makers in the hospitality sector to probe potential investments and partnerships.