Consumer + business confidence indexes rise

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Al Hilal rises to the top of SPL leaderboard + Al Qadsiah beats Al Riyadh

Good morning, friends. The private sector appears to still be shaking off the holiday season, leaving the news cycle to be led by government data on consumer and business sentiment, as well as our services trade balance. We’ll also be keeping an eye out later today for the latest purchasing managers’ index numbers from S&P Global.

Happening tomorrow

Khaled Dhafer & Brother’s Logistics Services (KDL Logistics) rings the opening bell on the Nomu parallel market tomorrow, according to a Tadawul disclosure. The company’s shares will be allowed to trade within a 30% price fluctuation cap and a static 10% band.

REFRESHER- The firm is floating a 20% stake at SAR 23 per share in a secondary offering on Tadawul’s parallel market. KDL’s founding family is selling down its positions to a combined 80% stake, subject to a 12-month lockup period, and pocketing net proceeds.

WEATHER– Dust and sand are expected to blanket the Eastern Region, Riyadh, Madinah, Makkah, AlUla, and Tabuk, reducing visibility across the northern belt. Meanwhile, winds are expected to sweep through Hail and Al Qassim, with light showers possible in parts of Jazan.

Riyadh: 18°C high / 4°C low.
Jeddah: 31°C high / 23°C low.
Makkah: 31°C high / 22°C low.
Dammam: 18°C high / 7°C low.

Watch this space

OIL — Opec+’s core group is holding the line — at least for now. The eight producers, which are implementing voluntary production adjustments, agreed to maintain current production levels, reaffirming the decision taken in November to pause output hikes through 1Q 2026, according to a press release. The decision will uphold 3.24 mn bbl/d of production cuts, or 3% of global demand, after successive output increases between April and December.

Geopolitics crowds the room: Supply decisions aren’t being driven purely by demand, but rather by political uncertainty, with analysts suggesting that Opec+ is opting for stability over action at a time when tensions are at a peak.

Background: Tensions flared last week between Saudi Arabia and the UAE after the former launched airstrikes in southern Yemen against the separatist STC, which has been backed by the UAE in the past. Russia’s exports are under pressure from US sanctions over the war in Ukraine, while Iran is facing protests and US threats of intervention. The cherry on top was the kidnapping and detention of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the US.

Data point

SAR 24.9 bn — that’s the total net inflow of FDI in Saudi Arabia in 3Q 2025, rising 34.5% y-o-y, according to data (pdf) from the General Authority for Statistics. The rise was primarily driven by amendments made to the old Foreign Investment Law that came into effect last February, which were designed to attract more FDI as they unified regulations treating foreign investors the same as locals.

Sports

Al Hilal is sitting at the top of the Saudi Pro League (SPL) leaderboard after beating Damac 2-0 yesterday. The victory gives Al Hilal a narrow one-point advantage over Al Nassr, while Damac remained in 14th place with nine points.

Al Qadsiah, meanwhile, beat Al Riyadh 4-0 after gaining an early lead with the fastest goal in the SPL in over a year from Julian Quinones in the 16th second. Al Qadsiah is now in fifth place with 24 points.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

All eyes are still set firmly on the situation in Venezuela, as the US clarifies its position moving forward, with US Secretary Marco Rubio explaining that the US plans to dictate policy in the country rather than physically run or occupy it, as was previously suggested by US President Donald Trump. Trump issued a warning to Venezuela’s current de facto leader, Delcy Rodríguez, of a “big price” to pay if she does not comply with the conditions the US has set in order for the country to avoid any further attacks by the US. Those include: That the oil industry be “run for the benefit of the people”; an end to drug trafficking and “gang problems”; as well as the removal of Colombian militant groups and that the government not “cozy up” to “Hizbollah and Iran.”

Rodríguez has so far been “gracious” and open to meeting the US’ conditions, Rubio said.

In the meantime, the US plans to continue to block the entry and exit of oil tankers as “leverage” over Maduro’s successor. “We are going to make our assessment on the basis of what they do, not what they say publicly,” Rubio added.

^^The must-read on the topic: Donald Trump warns Venezuelan rulers as Washington prepares to dictate policy

MEANWHILE- Thousands of travelers were stranded for hours on Sunday in both Greece and Italy, as a collapse of radio frequencies hit air traffic communications in Greece and technical issues with the landing guidance system and poor visibility affected an airport in Milan that is mainly a hub for Ryanair flights, Reuters reported separately here and here. Flights have begun to resume after the issues were resolved.

Saudi confidence firms up as consumer sentiment rebounds, businesses stay upbeat

Saudi confidence indicators sent a broadly reassuring signal toward the end of 2025, with consumer sentiment rebounding from a summer dip and business confidence holding firmly in optimistic territory, according to figures from the General Authority for Statistics.

The breakdown

The Consumer Confidence Index (pdf) rose to 113.9 points in September, its highest level since the March peak of 114.6, marking a steady recovery from a July low of 110.2. The index has now stayed above the 100-point neutrality threshold continuously since January 2023, signaling sustained optimism among Saudi households regarding the economy.

The Current Economic Conditions Index remained the strongest component, rising to 131.5 points during the same month, reflecting positive consumer assessments of present economic conditions.

On the business side, the Kingdom’s Business Confidence Index (BCI) (pdf) stood at 60.7 points in November, slightly down from 61.1 in October, but still comfortably above the 50-point neutral level. Sector-level readings also remained firmly within optimistic territory, with industry confidence at 60.6 points (down 1.5% m-o-m), services confidence at 60.6 (up 3.8% m-o-m), and construction confidence at 60.7 points (down 2.3% m-o-m).

What the numbers mean

The alignment of these two indices suggests a positive cycle in the non-oil economy. Households are bullish about their current financial situation, which is directly feeding into the confidence of the services sector, where firms reported a jump in optimism during November.

Business leaders expect continued growth in sales, fixed investment expenditure, and overall business performance, suggesting that the slight monthly dip in industry and construction is likely a breather rather than a structural slowdown.

Services trade deficit narrows in Saudi Arabia as exports outpace import growth

Saudi Arabia’s services trade deficit is shrinking, with exports of international trade services rising 26.5% y-o-y in 3Q 2025 to SAR 58.2 bn, according to data (pdf) from the General Authority for Statistics. Total services exports hit SAR 58.2 bn during the quarter, up 26.5% y-o-y, while imports grew at a slower 5.3% to reach SAR 120.8 bn.

The export growth was primarily driven by travel services, which accounted for 58.1% of the total. Exports of transportation services followed at SAR 9.7 bn (16.7%), with air travel accounting for 39.6% of that figure. Also contributing to the total: Communications, computers, and information services (4%), construction (3.3%), and government services (3.6%).

Meanwhile, transportation services dominated imports at SAR 32.3 bn, contributing 26.7% to the total, followed closely by travel services at SAR 30.8 bn (25.5%). The remaining imports were construction services (15.3%), other business services (12%), government services (5%), and ins. and pension services (4.2%).

Keep an eye on transport exports

What’s next: While air transport currently leads the transport exports category, the anticipated launch of Riyadh Air and the expansion of the Landbridge rail project are the next structural levers intended to flip the transport balance from a net drain to a revenue driver.

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How Saudi Arabia shifted from being a buyer of games to a builder of the industry

2025 marked the year Riyadh shifted from being a high-profile gaming investor to the industry’s primary architect, vertically integrating the gaming value chain — from hardware to global publishing and distribution. With the USD 55 bn Electronic Arts (EA) takeover — the largest leveraged buyout in history — the Kingdom moved from passive equity into strategic control of the space where digital gaming meets global sport. The result is Riyadh’s emergence as a neutral digital hub, sidestepping West–East tech frictions while anchoring a sector now central to the non-oil economy.

Buying the “sports bridge”

The EA megadeal is economically defensible as a play for stable, cashflow-rich IPs like EA Sports FC and Madden NFL. Beyond that, by owning EA, the Kingdom now controls the digital stadiums where hundreds of mns of people spend their time daily. This allows the Kingdom to bypass traditional media hurdles and build direct cultural capital with a global, mobile-first demographic — particularly in growth markets like India.

The challenge shifts from ownership to optimization in 2026. The PIF-led consortium must now prove it can revitalize fan sentiment that has historically viewed EA as overly focused on monetization at the expense of player experience.

The Asian pivot

Savvy Games Group’s aggressive moves into China, Japan, and South Korea are not just about market share; they are about geopolitical arbitrage. As Western regulators tighten scrutiny on Chinese tech, Savvy is positioning Riyadh as a safe harbor for Asian giants like Tencent and NetEase to scale internationally without the political baggage of direct US-China friction. By 2030, the Kingdom aims to produce over 30 globally recognized games, and this pivot ensures that the Saudi-made pipeline will have access to the narrative depth of Japan and the technical online infrastructure of South Korea. In March

Infrastructure and record-breaking events

Meanwhile, esports took new strides as the seven-week Esports World Cup (EWC) 2025 hit viewership records and ticket revenues jumped. The event posted 350 mn hours watched (up 73% y-o-y) and drew 750 mn global viewers. Beyond the screens, the event was a hit on the ground. Ticket revenues doubled compared to last year, prompting EWC’s COO Mike McCabe to confirm that a larger, more permanent venue is in the cards for 2026 to accommodate the influx of visitors.

ICYMI- We sat down with McCabe in July to discuss the growth of esports in our Kingdom, its cultural and economic impact, and the foundation’s measures of success and future plans.

The EWC foundation unveiled the Esports Nations Cup (ENC) in August, a biennial tournament set to debut in Riyadh in November 2026. Unlike the club-based EWC, the ENC will feature over 100 national teams competing across more than 15 titles.

Twisted Labs also launched at Riyadh’s Boulevard City in February, providing a tangible boost to the Kingdom’s professionalization of exports. The JV between Twisted Minds and Riyadh Season houses training facilities, production studios, and nine entertainment zones, serving as the local scene’s new hub.

This hardware-first approach is a prerequisite for the Kingdom’s long-term competitive strategy. By front-loading capital expenditure on permanent facilities like Twisted Labs and the expanded EWC zones, the Kingdom is securing the capacity required to host the inaugural Olympic Esports Games in 2027.

Mazen Al Romaih takes over from Al Suhaimi at Tadawul Group

Saudi Tadawul Group tapped banking veteran Mazen Al Romaih (bio) as chairman for a four-year term starting 2 January, it said in a filing to the bourse (pdf). Al Romaih succeeds Sarah Al Suhaimi (LinkedIn), who led the group through its 2021 listing and its foundational phase, helping position it as a globally recognized emerging market.

Al Romaih brings more than 30 years of experience in financial services and investments, spanning both regional and international institutions. His career includes senior roles at Ernst & Young, Merrill Lynch, Gulf International Bank, and Samba Financial Group. He also previously served as director of corporate finance at the Capital Market Authority.

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AlJouf Cement reinstated the managing director role three months after scrapping it — suggesting tighter oversight of day-to-day operations — with Bakr bin Atef Sindi (LinkedIn) taking the reins, effective 4 January, according to a Tadawul disclosure. Sindi brings over 25 years of experience in institutional transformation, governance, supply chains, and strategic planning. Al Jouf eliminated the role in September to “boost operational efficiency” following the appointment of CEO Samir Al Rehaili.

Tassnief maintains Quara Finance’s investment-grade rating

Quara Finance keeps investment-grade stamp

Quara Finance has held onto its investment-grade status, with Saudi rating agency Tassnief maintaining its long-term entity rating at BBB- and its short-term rating at T-4 with a stable outlook, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The rating — the lowest rung of investment grade — highlights a fintech player that is successfully balancing aggressive growth in the retail and SME segments with a “superior” capitalization and liquidity profile that outperforms many of its peers.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

Oil markets remain unshaken by Maduro overthrow

Global oil markets yawned at the US’ attack on Venezuela, with prices remaining more or less stable as markets had already priced in “a conflict with Venezuela that would impact exports,” CNBC says. While a military intervention like the US’ would traditionally trigger a spike in crude prices, Brent fell as much as 1.2% in intraday trading before paring back losses and is now up less than 1%, according to Bloomberg.

Venezuela may have vast oil reserves, but its actual production has been falling over the past several years, and the majority of the country’s output is exported to China. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is already forecasting a 3.8 mn bbl / d surplus for 2026. With Venezuela currently producing just 500k bbl / d (1% of global output), there isn’t enough “live” production to lose to cause a price shock.

A USD 100 bn (very) long play: A US-led, USD 100 bn plan to revive Venezuela’s oil infrastructure is expected to eventually ramp up the country’s oil production again, but analysts are wary that this will be a “years-long” process, Bloomberg says. The plan hinges on US oil majors, including Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips to invest some USD 10 bn per year — a roadmap that the White House seemingly has not yet discussed with these private sector players, and one which would hinge on the companies seeing more stability in Venezuela before pouring in more money. It also remains unclear whether markets will actually want the additional oil output that would result from bringing Venezuela’s production back up to historical levels, analysts tell CNBC.

Meanwhile, traders are flocking to haven assets: Gold and silver prices surged as haven demand following the news of the US’ capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Gold prices rose sharply — rising above the USD 4,400 mark for the first time in history — as investors scrambled for geopolitical hedges, a move mirrored across silver markets.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Markets are starting off the new year in the green, with defense stocks pushing up Asia-Pacific markets in early trading. Japan’s Nikkei, South Korea’s Kospi, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, and mainland China’s CSI 300 are all firmly trading up. Wall Street is likely to follow suit when trading begins later today — futures indicate the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are set to open in the green, while Dow Jones futures are trading flat.

TASI	10,364	-1.8% (YTD: -1.2%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,370	-1.7% (YTD: -1.3%)
NomuC	23,372	-0.6% (YTD: +0.3%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	40,898	-2.2% (YTD: -2.2%)
ADX	9,995	0.0% (YTD: 0.0%)
DFM	6,114	+1.1% (YTD: +1.1%)
S&P 500	6,858	+0.2% (YTD: +0.2%)
FTSE 100	9,951	+0.2% (YTD: +0.2%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,850	+1.0% (YTD: +1.0%)
Brent crude	USD 61.02	+0.4%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.46	-4.4%
Gold	USD 4,406	+1.8%
BTC	USD 91,725	+0.4% (YTD: +4.1%)
Sukuk/bond market index	920.43	0.0% (YTD: +0.1%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.69	-0.1% (YTD: -0.1%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	14.51	-2.9% (YTD: -2.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 1.8% yesterday on turnover of SAR 2.6 bn. The index is down 1.2% YTD.

In the green: Sieco (+9.9%), Naqi (+2.5%) and Burgerizzr (+2.2%).

In the red: Gulf Union Alahlia (-4.6%), UCIC (-4.5%) and Ardco (-4.5%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.6% yesterday on turnover of SAR 20.8 mn. The index is up 0.3% YTD.

In the green: United Mining (+10.0%), Paper Home (+6.9%) and Dar Almarkabah (+6.7%).

In the red: Mayar (-8.3%), Lamasat (-8.1%) and Neft Alsharq (-8.0%).

Corporate actions

Burgerizzr’s board greenlit a 60% capital increase to SAR 56 mn, whereby three bonus shares will be issued for every five existing ones, the firm said in a Tadawul disclosure yesterday. The SAR 21 mn boost will be funded via retained earnings, bringing the company’s total share count to 56 mn.

Academy of Learning’s shareholders approved a 50% capital hike to SAR 135 via a bonus share issuance, the firm said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The SAR 45 mn increase will be executed by tapping retained earnings, with shareholders receiving one bonus share for every two held.

ALSO- The company approved a SAR 9 mn dividend payout for the fiscal year ending 30 June 2025 at SAR 0.1 per share. The distribution date is set for Thursday, 22 January.

CALENDAR

JANUARY

10-18 January (Saturday-Sunday): Public school mid-year break.

13-15 January (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Minerals Forum, King Abdul Aziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

15 January (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for 31.7k properties in 14 neighborhoods in the Eastern Province.

15 January (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for about 157.3k properties in 78 neighborhoods across the Eastern Province.

15 January (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for about 41.7k properties across 115 neighborhoods in Riyadh, Qassim, and the Eastern Province.

18-21 January (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Hospital Design and Build Expo, Riyadh.

26-27 January (Monday-Tuesday): SuperReturn Saudi Arabia, Hotel Fairmont, Riyadh.

26-27 (Monday-Tuesday): GPRC Summit, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Franchise Expo (SFE), Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): Real Estate Future Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): IFAT Saudi Arabia, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center, Riyadh,

27-28 (Tuesday-Wednesday): SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh.

28 (Wednesday): Data Center Nation Riyadh, Riyadh.

28-30 (Wednesday-Friday): Jeddah International Travel and Tourism Exhibition (JTTX), Jeddah.

FEBRUARY

2-4 (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Media Forum, Riyadh.

2-4 (Monday-Wednesday): Women Leaders Summit and Awards KSA, Riyadh.

2-13 (Monday-Friday): 2026 Asian Road Cycling Championship and Paralympic Cycling, Qassim.

3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday): RLC Global Forum Annual Meeting, Riyadh.

4 (Wednesday): Michelin Guide’s Restaurant Celebration, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

5-7 February (Thursday-Saturday): LIV Golf 2026 season opener, Riyadh Golf Club, Riyadh.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh.

9-10 February (Monday-Tuesday): Global Games Show Riyadh 2026, Malf Hall, Riyadh.

9-14 February (Monday-Saturday): Asian Racing Conference, Crowne Plaza Riyadh RDC Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

11 (Wednesday) Digital Transformation Summit Saudi Arabia (DTS), Riyadh.

11-14 (Wednesday-Saturday): JeddaDerm, Jeddah.

13-14 February (Friday-Saturday): Jeddah E-Prix 2026, Jeddah.

15-17 February (Sunday-Tuesday): The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh Front & Exhibition Center.

16 February (Monday) King Salman Stadium design-and-build contract prequalification submission deadline.

22 February (Sunday): Founding Day.

26 February (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for 142.8k properties across 104 neighborhoods in Hail.

MARCH

12 March (Thursday): Deadline for real estate registration for 253.2k properties in 499 neighborhoods across Riyadh, Qassim, Makkah, and Hail.

17-23 March (Tuesday-Monday): Eid Al-Fitr holiday.

21 March (Saturday): Fanatics Flag Football Classic, Kingdom Arena, Riyadh.

31 March (Tuesday): Zatca’s 23rd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

APRIL

6 April (Monday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

6-7 April (Monday-Tuesday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-16 April (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center – Malham.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21 April (Tuesday): GC Summit Saudi Arabia 2026, Saudi Arabia.

27-29 April (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

MAY

3-5 May (Sunday-Tuesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh.

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

24-28 (Sunday-Thursday): Eid al-Adha holiday.

JUNE

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production in 2026.
November: UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh.
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.
6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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