Capital Market Authority extends corporate debt fee waivers through 2027

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: BMI warns of a growth slowdown for the Kingdom if US-Iran friction persists

Good morning, ladies and gents. Business is taking it very slow this month, resulting in yet another brisk issue this morning. Our lead story dives into the extension of fee waivers for Tadawul and Edaa service charges for two more years, as regulators try to boost private-sector debt issuance.

WEATHER- Rain-bearing thunderclouds are expected over the Northern Borders, Al Jouf, Tabuk, Hail, Madinah, Makkah and Al Baha, with dusty winds in Riyadh and Qassim and mist in parts of the Eastern Province and the Kingdom’s southwestern highlands.

Riyadh: 28°C high / 16°C low.
Jeddah: 31°C high / 25°C low.
Makkah: 31°C high / 24°C low.
Dammam: 26°C high / 14°C low.

Watch this space

MACRO — Saudi’s oil and non-oil growth could face a notable slowdown if US-Iran tensions persist into 2026, according to a BMI research article. While Saudi Arabia can reroute a portion of its exports oil flows via the East-West (Petroline) pipeline to the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, the broader “halo effect” of regional stability would still be undermined by lower hydrocarbon exports.

A military conflict would hit both the oil and non-oil sectors, with the oil sector feeling the brunt. If combined with a partial or full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, hydrocarbon sector growth could see a 0.5 percentage point drop in a short-lived conflict and a 0.9 percentage point decline in a prolonged one.

Even a “status quo” scenario — marked by heightened security risks and increased ins. costs without physical disruption — could shave 0.1 percentage points off the Kingdom’s non-hydrocarbon growth, the report suggests.

GIGAPROJECTS — Will we see the Expo 2030 plan unveiled this month? The detailed master plan for the six-month Expo 2030 will reportedly be out in a matter of weeks, anonymous sources told AGBI. The UK-based consultancy Buro Happold is finalizing the details, after Germany’s Lava completed the concept design in September.

Where are we standing? Groundwork is already underway after Nesma & Partners secured the utilities and infrastructure mandate last month. The SAR 2 bn second phase will reportedly be awarded when the master plan is out, according to AGBI’s sources.

Recalibration likely won’t hit the Expo: The project is among time-sensitive developments that are widely expected to be prioritized, as the need for fiscal consolidation pushes a wave of delays and rethinking of less urgent projects, reportedly including Neom’s The Line, ski resort Trojena, and, more recently, the Mukaab.

DEBT — Ruya wants to seize Saudi’s lending opportunities: PIF-backed Ruya Partners plans to launch a USD 400 mn private credit fund to target GCC middle-market lending, the firm’s partner Omar AlYawer told Bloomberg. The new vehicle will focus on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with family offices, pension funds, and endowments expected to take part in the raise.

Why it matters: While mega projects and sovereign-backed firms can easily tap bank loans, mid-sized companies in the region often find traditional financing too slow or inflexible to support scaling. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are emerging as private credit hubs, and Abu Dhabi-based Ruya’s fund aims to fill the gap where demand for flexible capital exceeds supply, helping support economic growth. There’s particularly strong demand for USD 10-50 mn loans in Saudi Arabia, AlYawer noted.

What’s next? The fund’s first close is expected in the coming months, AlYawer said. Over the next three years, Ruya plans to expand the fund’s scope to include real estate and infrastructure credit.

SPORTS — Is LIV Golf putting its teams on the market? LIV Golf is reportedly gearing up to sell minority stakes in two of its teams for the first time, eyeing valuations of up to USD 300 mn per team, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The league reportedly tapped Citigroup to oversee the process, with a full control sale of one team also on the table.

Where things stand: The PIF-backed league operates 13 franchises, with team captains holding 25% equity. The executives’ endgame is to push each team toward a USD 1 bn valuation, driven by sponsorships and expanded use of rights.

AND- Benzema joins Al Hilal: France’s Karim Benzema has left Al Ittihad for Al Hilal, potentially threatening Cristiano Ronaldo’s hopes to secure his first league title. Ronaldo’s Al Nassr remains one point behind Al Hilal, the Kingdom’s most successful team with 21 league titles and four Asian Championships.

REGULATION — CMA to ease foreign ownership limits this year? The Capital Market Authority (CMA) is currently reviewing the 49% cap on foreign ownership in locally-listed companies and plans to tweak the rule soon. “We are committed to make it happen and we hope it’s going to be happening this year,” the regulator’s board member Abdulaziz Abdulmohsen Binhassan is quoted as saying at the Capital Markets Forum Select by Bloomberg.

The authority removing the cap could attract USD 10 bn in fresh capital inflows, according to Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan.

We’ve been anticipating the move for some time now, with Binhassan saying that the authority is nearing a final decision on the amendment back in September.

ENERGY— EIG Global to set up fund to hold onto Aramco assets: US investment firm EIG Global Partners is setting up a new fund for its stake in Aramco’s oil pipeline assets, as the current holding vehicle approaches the end of its term, Reuters reports, citing two sources it says are in the know. EIG Global has tapped investment bank PJT Partners to advise on the move, through which it intends to court new investors.

Remember: In 2021, a group of investors led by EIG paid USD 12.4 bn to partner with Aramco, securing a 49% stake in Aramco’s pipeline subsidiaries, while Aramco retained 51% ownership and control of the assets.

AND — KSA and Kuwait will issue tenders for the Al Durra field this year, Kuwaiti Oil Minister Tariq Al Roumi told Reuters yesterday, adding that all kinds of tenders will be on the table.

A point of contention: Gulf Cooperation Council ministers said the Al Durra gas field is only jointly owned by the KSA and Kuwait in 2024. Both nations have repeatedly affirmed their joint ownership, while Iran claims it has the rights to the field, which it names Arash.

Data point

SAR 1.6 tn — that’s the amount of consumer spending the Kingdom saw in 2025, up 11% y-o-y. Point of Sale (POS) spending rose 6% y-o-y to SAR 707.2 bn during the year, while e-commerce sales via Mada cards jumped 65% y-o-y to SAR 325.2 bn.

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The big story abroad

Elon Musk is merging SpaceX with xAI, creating a USD 1.25 tn venture, people in the know told Bloomberg. The move sets the stage for Musk to carry out his plan of setting up data centers in the planet’s orbit — he claims that that space will be the cheapest place for AI computing in two to three years. Properties formerly owned by xAI — Grok chatbot and X.com — now fall under SpaceX’s umbrella.

The world’s richest man still intends to take SpaceX public this year, in an IPO that could see the company raise as much as USD 50 bn, a source told Bloomberg.

AND- Our usual dose of global trade updates: US President Donald Trump has agreed to trim punitive tariffs on India on the condition that New Delhi stops buying Russian oil, reducing the levies from 25% to 18%. India will slash its levies on Washington down to zero. After a phone call with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Trump said New Delhi has agreed to buy more oil from Venezuela as well as upwards of USD 500 bn in US energy and other products.

Software giant Oracle has raised USD 25 bn in a blockbuster bond offering, attracting an orderbook of USD 127 bn at its peak, the Financial Times reports, citing people it says are familiar with the transaction. The funding came through amid concerns that Oracle was striking up an unsustainable level of debt to back its AI spending.

Circle your calendar

The two-day Private Sector Forum kicks off next Monday at the King Abdul Aziz International Conference Center. The event will bring together PIF portfolio companies, government entities, and global investors “to explore new opportunities and collaborate with peers driving Saudi Arabia’s economic future.”

Corporate debt issuers get regulatory service fee waiver extended through 2027

The Saudi Capital Markets Authority (CMA) isn’t ready to pull the plug on its support for corporate borrowers just yet. The fee waivers for Tadawul and Edaa service charges have been extended through the end of 2027, Argaam reports. The waiver reduces debt instrument offering costs by up to SAR 400k per public offering and as much as SAR 60k per private placement.

The details: The waiver applies to non-government issuers with an active publicly-disclosed credit rating from a CMA-licensed agency. It covers up to two issuances per issuer for both public debt offerings and private placements, though the private placements cannot exceed SAR 500 mn to qualify. Total waived fees are capped at SAR 5 mn per year.

Why it matters

Private-sector issuance is still modest at about USD 7 bn, but S&P Global expects it to gradually pick up as capital markets deepen and companies look for longer-dated, fixed-rate funding beyond bank loans. The CMA’s debt fee waiver is meant to accelerate that shift — coming just as Vision 2030 spending of USD 85-95 bn between 2025 and 2027 pushes domestic firms into heavier funding cycles.

IN CONTEXT- First rolled out in 2020, the waiver was set to expire in 2025 and covers service fees charged by Tadawul, the Saudi exchange, and Edaa, the securities depository. Since then, outstanding issuances climbed to 118 by end-2025 from 32 in 2021, while total market value grew from about SAR 90 bn to SAR 132 bn. Trading also picked up over the same period, with turnover in listed debt rising to more than 9% from just 0.46%.

Riyad Bank posts 11.7% increase in net income

Riyad Bank posted an 11.7% y-o-y rise in net income to SAR 10.4 bn in 2025, supported by 6.3% y-o-y jump in operating income and a dip in operating expenses, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The bank’s total income from financing grew 11.7% y-o-y to SAR 24.2 bn during the year, while its total income from investment rose 14.6% y-o-y to SAR 2.9 bn.

The bank’s board greenlit a SAR 1.6 bn dividend distribution for 2H 2025 at SAR 0.55 a piece. The distribution date has yet to be disclosed.

ALSO- The lender will raise its capital by 33.3% to SAR 40 bn through a bonus share issuance, it said in a Tadawul filing. The SAR 10 bn capital increase will be funded from the bank’s statutory reserve and retained earnings, with shareholders receiving one bonus share for every three held. The additional capital is earmarked for shoring up the bank’s solvency and supporting operational activities.

Tabuk Cement names Abdulqader Shweikan as CEO

TabukCement tapped Abdulqader Hamed Shweikan as its new CEO, succeeding Ali bin Mohammed Al Qahtani, who stepped down for personal reasons, according to a Tadawul disclosure. Shweikan brings over 20 years of experience in the cement and heavy industries sector and has been with the company since 2018.

FDI remains the missing piece in Saudi’s reform push

Saudi’s aggressive reforms and efforts to reel in FDI have drawn attention from Bloomberg, which is out with a piece spotlighting the flurry of reforms introduced over the past year, which included rent freezes, opening property ownership to foreigners, capital market liberalization, and a new privatization strategy. These moves are all aimed at attracting FDI — “the main lacking piece” in the Kingdom’s story,” as EFG Hermes’ Head of Macroeconomic Analysis Mohamed Abu Basha puts it.

Why now? Fresh foreign capital would support corporate expansion, infrastructure funding, and ease pressure on public finances. Saudi Arabia has faced fiscal deficits since 2022 and its current account has been in deficit for over a year now, prompting higher borrowing and a scaling back of gigaprojects.

Still trailing regional rivals: Despite the reforms, Saudi Arabia continues to lag the UAE — particularly Dubai — in attracting global capital, weighed down by housing and schooling constraints, traffic congestion, and disruptions from ongoing construction. However, investors remain optimistic — “over the long haul money will come here,” said TCW Group’s Richard Miller. “It’s maybe not going to go from here to there as fast they want it to, but there’s no way it doesn’t eventually get there.”

Enaya shareholders reject the Salama tie-up, SFD expands its industrial footprint in Oman

Enaya says no to Salama merger

Enaya Cooperative Ins.’s shareholders rejected a proposed merger with Salama Cooperative Ins, Enaya said in a Tadawul disclosure. The two insurers inked a binding MoU in August to merge Enaya into Salama by issuing 18.9 mn new shares at SAR 10 apiece to Enaya’s shareholders.

IN CONTEXT- Salama’s shareholders had already approved a 62.98% capital increase to SAR 488.9 mn via issuing 18.9 mn new shares last month, based on a swap ratio of 0.8215 Salama shares for each Enaya share.

Not a first: Enaya has rejected other strategic proposals in recent years, including a merger with United Ins. Company in December 2023 and a SAR 150 mn capital increase via a rights issue in December 2024.

Saudi gears up for USD 40 mn investment in Omani industrial city

The Saudi Fund for Development (SFD) will pour USD 40 mn into the establishment of Thumrait Industrial City in Oman under an MoU with Omani Finance Minister Sultan Al Habsi, state news agency SPA reports. The agreement aims to develop the industrial, logistical, developmental, and social sectors in the Dhofar Governorate through the 3.9 mn sqm industrial city.

IN CONTEXT- The SFD committed to invest SAR 1.2 bn to finance infrastructure development in the Special Economic Zone in Oman’s Ad Dhahirah under an MoU signed in 2023 with the Omani Finance Ministry.

Hamad Mohammed Bin Saedan lands development gig in Tuwaiq

Hamad Mohammed Bin Saedan Real Estate will manage and develop a SAR 17 mn commercial real estate project in Riyadh’s Tuwaiq district, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The firm will take on the design and implementation phases of the project, which are expected to take 18 months. It will receive 10% of the development costs as a development management fee.

The greenback at a crossroads with four scenarios to watch, BMI

It’s been a volatile week for the greenback, underscoring how fragile investor sentiment remains. Fitch Solutions’ research unit BMI is charting four scenarios for the USD as multiple forces shape its course over the coming months.

IN CONTEXT- A sharp slide last week has kept investors on edge even after the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady, reviving concerns that the USD could be drifting toward a broader decline reminiscent of early 2025. A rebound followed on Friday on news that US President Donald Trump is nominating a new Fed governor, with the gains steadying through Monday.

The scenarios

#1- In a bearish “sell America” scenario, BMI says doubts over fiscal discipline, sticky inflation, and the perceived erosion of Fed independence could drive investors away from US assets, pushing the greenback index toward the mid‑to‑high 80s. This decline could become self‑reinforcing if investors grow more concerned and begin to hedge or cut exposure to US assets more aggressively, according to BMI.

#2- The opposite outcome remains possible: A resurgence of global risk aversion — triggered by geopolitical shocks or emerging‑market stress — could quickly restore the USD’s safe‑haven appeal, lifting the currency back toward the 100-105 range as capital flows into US Treasuries.

#3- A bring-on-the-risk scenario assumes a shift toward global risk appetite, where more global players are emboldened by the US’ economic growth and higher commodity prices boost capital inflows. In this environment, stronger global growth, coupled with more aggressive currency policies in China and Japan, could weaken the USD index by around 5% to the 90-95 range, even as US assets benefit from larger repatriated income.

#4- Index through the roof? Strong US growth, coupled with increased FDI inflows from trade agreements and narrowing trade deficits, could push the greenback index into the 100-110 range. This outcome would likely heighten volatility for emerging market currencies as capital is pulled back toward the US.

What’s next?

For now, investors are reassessing their next move. With the Fed signaling patience rather than urgency, attention is shifting from rate cuts to policy credibility and political pressure. Any renewed doubts over central bank independence could weigh further on the USD. An intervention by Japan in the currency market could also put downward pressure.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

After a turbulent start to the week, markets are rebounding thanks to a jump in US factory activity and the initial shock after Trump unveiled his Fed chair nominee fading. Asia-Pacific markets are mostly in the green in early trading this morning, led by South Korea’s Kospi.

TASI	11,321	+1.4% (YTD: +7.9%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,524	+1.4% (YTD: +9.9%)
NomuC	24,013	+1.2% (YTD: +3.1%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	47,606	-0.1% (YTD: +13.8%)
ADX	10,338	+0.6% (YTD: +3.5%)
DFM	6,573	+2.1% (YTD: +8.7%)
S&P 500	6,976	+0.5% (YTD: +1.9%)
FTSE 100	10,342	+1.2% (YTD: +4.1%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,008	+1.0% (YTD: +3.7%)
Brent crude	USD 66.30	-4.3%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.23	-0.3%
Gold	USD 4,774	+2.6%
BTC	USD 78,850	+2.5% (YTD: -10.1%)
Sukuk/bond market index	917.60	+0.1% (YTD: -0.2%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.48	-0.1% (YTD: -0.3%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	USD 16.34	-6.3% (YTD: +10.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 1.4% yesterday on turnover of SAR 5.9 bn. The index is up 7.9% YTD.

In the green: Spimaco (+7.3%), Rasan (+6.5%) and KEC (+6.3%).

In the red: Najran Cement (-2.1%), Amak (-2.0%) and Saudi Cable (-1.9%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 1.2% yesterday on turnover of SAR 30.1 mn. The index is up 3.1% YTD.

In the green: Mulkia (+15.9%), First Avenue (+9.6%) and HKC (+7.1%).

In the red: Alfakhera (-6.5%), Hamad bin Saedan Real Estate (-5.6%) and Naas Petrol (-5.3%).

CALENDAR

FEBRUARY

2-4 February (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Media Forum, Riyadh.

2-4 February (Monday-Wednesday): Women Leaders Summit and Awards KSA, Riyadh.

9-10 February (Monday-Tuesday): Private Sector Forum 2026, Riyadh.

2-13 February (Monday-Friday): 2026 Asian Road Cycling Championship and Paralympic Cycling, Qassim.

3-4 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): RLC Global Forum Annual Meeting, Riyadh.

4 February (Wednesday): Michelin Guide’s Restaurant Celebration, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

5 February (Thursday): Deadline to submit bids for EPC contract for Ras Mohaisen-Baha-Makkah Independent Water Transmission System.

5-7 February (Thursday-Saturday): LIV Golf 2026 season opener, Riyadh Golf Club, Riyadh.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh.

8-9 February (Sunday-Monday): AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (ACEME), Maraya Hall, AlUla.

9-10 February (Monday-Tuesday): Global Games Show Riyadh 2026, Malf Hall, Riyadh.

9-14 February (Monday-Saturday): Asian Racing Conference, Crowne Plaza Riyadh RDC Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

11 February (Wednesday) Digital Transformation Summit Saudi Arabia (DTS), Riyadh.

11-14 February (Wednesday-Saturday): JeddaDerm, Jeddah.

13-14 February (Friday-Saturday): Jeddah E-Prix 2026, Jeddah.

15-17 February (Sunday-Tuesday): The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh Front & Exhibition Center.

16 February (Monday): King Salman Stadium design-and-build contract prequalification submission deadline.

16 February (Monday): First day of Ramadan (TBC).

22 February (Sunday): Founding Day.

26 February (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for 142.8k properties across 104 neighborhoods in Hail.

MARCH

12 March (Thursday): Deadline for real estate registration for 253.2k properties in 499 neighborhoods across Riyadh, Qassim, Makkah, and Hail.

18-23 March (Tuesday-Monday): Eid Al-Fitr holiday (TBC).

21 March (Saturday): Fanatics Flag Football Classic, Kingdom Arena, Riyadh.

31 March (Tuesday): Zatca’s 23rd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

APRIL

6 April (Monday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

6-7 April (Monday-Tuesday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-16 April (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center – Malham.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21 April (Tuesday): GC Summit Saudi Arabia 2026, Saudi Arabia.

22-23 April (Wednesday-Thursday): The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah.

27-29 April (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

MAY

3-5 May (Sunday-Tuesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh.

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

5-6 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh.

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid al-Adha holiday.

JUNE

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production in 2026.
November: UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh.
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.
6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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