Budget deficit to reach 3.8% of GDP this year -Fitch

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Consultancy firms reportedly vying to fill PwC void + Alpha Data aims to triple Saudi sales by next year

Good morning, wonderful people. We are saying goodbye to the second workweek of Ramadan with a meaty issue, as we delve into Fitch’s latest projections for our budget deficit, and PIF-backed Scopely snaps up Pokemon Go from US-based Niantic.

ALSO- Siemens Energy has landed a USD 1.6 bn project for two gas-fired power plants, and BSF agreed to lend Diriyah SAR 6 bn for Wadi Safar project. Let’s dive in.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- Rawasi Albina Investment will list its SAR 70 mn sukuk on the Tadawul for trading today, with the notes carrying a SAR 1k par value and semi-annual payments at a 10.25% rate, Tadawul said on X.

#2- The final allocation of shares in Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction is scheduled to happen today, after the retail bookbuilding period wrapped up on Sunday.

REMEMBER- Umm Al Qura is offering a 9.1% stake on Tadawul’s main market priced at the top of its indicative range at SAR 15 per share, with the institutional tranche oversubscribed by 241x. The pricing would see it raise SAR 2 bn in proceeds and give the firm a market cap of SAR 21 bn at listing, making it the largest IPO on Tadawul so far this year.

WEATHER- Riyadh and Madinah will see thunderstorms, while Makkah will see some rain today.

Riyadh: 27°C daytime / 16°C overnight
Makkah: 32°C daytime / 20°C overnight
Madinah: 28°C daytime / 16°C overnight

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Filling the PwC-shaped hole: Consultancy firms including Deloitte and EY are moving to expand their presence in the Kingdom after the PIF sidelined PwC from advisory contracts, Bloomberg reports, citing sources it says are in the know. Some firms have already been invited to bid on “lucrative” consultancy contracts for giga-projects including Neom, according to the business information service’s sources.

Talent shortage? Deloitte and EY managers have reportedly instructed staff to brace for an uptick in projects, with EY already bringing in more than a dozen staff members to Saudi Arabia from other offices in anticipation of securing new assignments. This shift comes as PwC’s competitors struggle to scale up and absorb the additional workload due to a limited local consultant pool.

REMEMBER- PwC was reportedly barred from securing advisory and consulting contracts from the fund and its subsidiaries until February 2026, two years after setting up its regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia, where it employs over 2k people. The consulting firm informed employees in an internal memo that the situation pertains to a “client” matter rather than a regulatory issue, while the Financial Times said it was due to the consultancy firm’s attempt to hire Neom’s then-chief internal audit officer Jason Davies.

#2- Abu Dhabi-based Alpha Data aims to triple Saudi sales to 10% by next year as it expands beyond the UAE, CEO Fayez Al Abini told Asharq Business. The digital and IT services provider opened offices in Saudi Arabia and Qatar in 2022 but is adopting a cautious approach toward its expansion, focusing on projects that can “[ensure] payment commitments” and “avoid delays in signing and implementation," Al Abini said.

ICYMI- Alpha Data debuted on the ADX yesterday with a 40% stake sale that raised AED 600 mn (USD 163 mn).

#3- The Royal Commission for Riyadh City extended the deadline to submit bids for the contract to design and build Riyadh Metro Line 7 to Sunday, 15 June 2025, according to Metro Rail Today. The line is set to be developed in two phases, with phase 1 spanning a 65 km stretch, linking 19 stations to key areas including Qiddiya Entertainment City and King Salman Park. Meanwhile, phase two — still in the design stage — will extend the line northeast to connect Diriyah Gate, New Murabba, and King Khaled International Airport.

Who’s in? Several major global companies are reportedly bidding for the contract, including Germany's Alstom, Japan’s Hitachi Rail, Siemens, Samsung Construction and Trading, and China’s CRRC, Freysinnet Contracting, Turkey’s Mapa and Limak. Local firms competing for the project include Alayuni, Albawani, Almabani, FCC, and WeBuild, Nesma and Partners, and OHLA.

REMEMBER- The orange line (Line 3) — the final link in Riyadh’s network — was launched earlier in January, bringing the total number of operating metro lines to six. This milestone follows a successful pilot earlier in December, which introduced three of the network’s six lines, followed by the launch of Lines 2 and 5 mid-month.

#4- Riyadh Air is exploring partnerships with Air India and IndiGo to strengthen its presence in India as the airline’s CEO Tony Douglas leads a delegation visiting India for three days, according to a statement. “India has long been a crucial part of Riyadh Air’s network planning ahead of our operations launch,” Douglas said.

#5- Derayah Nomu Market Fund gets the go-ahead: Derayah Financial Company received the green light from the Capital Market Authority for the public offering of its Derayah Nomu Market Fund, the authority said in a statement.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Consumer spending via point-of-sale (PoS) transactions in the Kingdom dipped 25.5% w-o-w in the week ending Saturday, 8 March to c. SAR 13 bn, according to the Saudi Central Bank’s report (pdf). The number of weekly transactions also fell by 19.8% w-o-w to just under 185.5 mn.

The details: PoS transactions on furniture saw the largest decline in terms of value, falling 38.7% w-o-w to SAR 321.5 mn, followed by restaurants and cafes, whose value fell 38.3% to just under SAR 1.3 bn. Food and beverages came in a close third, with the value of transactions falling 38.1% w-o-w to SAR 2.0 bn. In terms of volume, restaurants and cafes recorded the steepest decline during the week (-35.8%). Education transactions jumped 144.6% w-o-w to SAR 200.7 mn as students returned from their second semester vacations following Founding Day.

Riyadh once again had the highest value of PoS transactions at SAR 4.6 bn, followed by Jeddah at SAR 1.8 bn. The lowest value was recorded in Abha, with SAR 139.7 mn in spending across 2,391 transactions.

#2- The Kingdom’s commercial records for importing precious metals and gemstones rose 37% y-o-y in 2024, driven by government reforms to attract investment and improve transaction transparency, according to Aleqtisadiah. Registrations for precious metals and gemstones imports reached 1,081, up from 788 in 2023, while sales registrations grew 29% y-o-y to 1,269. Riyadh led in imports and exports, followed by Makkah and the Eastern Province.

OIL WATCH-

Opec+ oil output jumped in February to 41.01 mn bbl / d, rising 363k bbl / day from the previous month, according to Opec’s monthly oil market report (pdf). The increase was driven primarily by higher output from Kazakhstan, which added 198k bbl / d to its monthly production — “at least 300k bbl / d above its Opec+ ceiling,” Bloomberg notes.

REMEMBER- Opec+ agreed to stick to plans to revive supply in April following repeated delays, with the group citing “healthy market fundamentals” and a “positive outlook.” Opec+ kept the door open, however, for future changes in policy, saying that the increase may be paused or reversed depending on market conditions. “This flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability,” the group said.

SPORTS-

#1- Saudi clubs comfortably head into the Asian Champions League Elite quarterfinals: Al Hilal recovered from a 1-0 loss in the first leg of the round of 16 to beat Uzbek side Pakhtakor 4-1 on aggregate, while Al Nassr put three past Iran’s Esteghlal following a goalless draw in the reverse fixture. Meanwhile, Al Ahli added two clean goals to the three-goal cushion they took home against Qatar’s Al Rayyan in the previous leg.

What’s next? Qatar’s Al Sadd joined our three Saudi clubs, with the four teams qualifying to the finals from the West region, which can only draw teams that qualified from the East in the next round — including Japan’s Yokohama F. Marinos and Vissel Kobe, Thai side Buriram United, as well as China’s Shanghai Shenhua. The quarterfinals draw will take place next Monday, 17 March. Apart from the round of 16, the competition’s finals will be played over just one leg and within a 10-day stretch between 25 April and 4 May.

#2- Chess teams are recruiting top players for the Esports World Cup this summer, where sixteen players will compete in Riyadh from Thursday, 31 July to Monday, 4 August, for a USD 1.5 mn pool, Reuters reported yesterday.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It seems like we can’t go a single morning without bringing up the Trump tariffs: US President Donald Trump threatened to introduce additional tariffs on EU imports, after the bloc responded to his 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, saying it would increase tariffs on USD 28 bn worth of US goods starting April. “Whatever they charge us with, we're charging them,” Trump said in response to the news. (Reuters | Bloomberg | AP | BBC)

“Tariffs are taxes. They are bad for business and worse for consumers,” EU President Ursula von der Leyen said, adding that “nobody needs that — on both sides, neither in the European Union nor in the United States.”

CLOSER TO HOME- Israel and Lebanon kicked off US-backed talks over their border and the possible withdrawal of Israeli troops. Delegates from the two sides met earlier this week in the presence of US and French mediators (Bloomberg)

Fitch sees Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit widening to 3.8% of GDP this year

Aramco’s recent decision to cut dividends by 31.0% in 2025 is expected to cause the Kingdom’s budget deficit to widen to 3.8% of GDP in 2025, up from 2.8% in 2024, Fitch Ratings said in a research note.

REFRESHER- Aramco plans to reduce its 2025 dividend payouts to USD 85.4 bn, which it attributed to financial pressure from high payouts and subdued oil prices, which have strained its balance sheet and contributed to its net-debt position. The dividend will include a base payment and a smaller performance-linked portion.

For Fitch Ratings, the change in dividend payments is no surprise: Aramco’s plan for dividend payments is aligned with the agency’s view that total dividend payments will average around USD 82 bn annually over 2025-2028, the note reads.

Fitch’s deficit forecast is a more conservative estimate than that of Capital Economics, which penciled in a prediction of the deficit widening to 4.0% of GDP in 2025. Meanwhile, Emirates NBD said in February that it sees Saudi Arabia recording a budget deficit of 5.6% of GDP this year.

The latest gov’t projections tell a different story: The government expects the budget shortfall to come in at 2.3% of GDP (SAR 101 bn) in the current fiscal year, and to “continue at similar levels over the medium term,” it said in its budget for FY 2025.

To meet diversification targets, some gov’t adaptation will be necessary: “We believe the authorities retain flexibility to adjust expenditure, particularly on investment, as they look to balance capital spending priorities and fiscal targets,” Fitch said. However, this could lead to lower investment spending, which could have an impact on the Kingdom’s diversification efforts as investment projects are scaled back.

How increased oil production will impact GDP growth: The agency sees oil production rising by around 10% by the end of 2026 to around 10 mn bpd, contributing to an “expansion in oil sector GDP of 2.7% in 2025 and 6.4% in 2026” — and, ultimately, causing economic growth to accelerate to 3.4% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, from 1.3% in 2024.

Fitch’s prediction for GDP growth is more optimistic than most: S&P Global sees Saudi Arabia’s GDP growing by 2.8% in 2025, while the IMF and the World Bank slashed the Kingdom’s 2025 growth projections to 3.2% and 3.4% respectively, citing extended Opec+ production cuts. Meanwhile, Capital Economics penciled in an even more optimistic prediction of 3.5%, citing anticipated oil output cuts, “but activity in the non-oil sector is likely to soften on the back of a turn to fiscal consolidation.”

PIF-backed Scopely acquires Pokemon Go from US-based Niantic

Scopely closes in on Pokemon Go acquisition: US-based game developer Scopely — a subsidiary of PIF’s Savvy Games Group — agreed to acquire Pokemon Go and other titles from American software developer Niantic for USD 3.5 bn, Niantic said in a statement. Niantic will contribute USD 350 mn from its balance sheet to the offer price, bringing the total value of the transaction to USD 3.85 bn for Niantic shareholders.

ICYMI- Reports of a potential acquisition have been swirling since last month, with the move coming as Scopely focuses on boosting its gaming portfolio with “community-driven, social gaming experiences.”

The details of the agreement: Scopely will acquire Niantic’s game development teams and games, including Pokémon GO, Pikmin Bloom, and Monster Hunter Now. It will also take over companion apps such as Campfire and Wayfarer, which support the main games. Following the takeover, Niantic will separate its mapping technology platform into a new independent company, Niantic Spatial, which will focus on geospatial AI. The transaction will also see Scopely inject an additional USD 50 mn into Niantic’s AI spinoff, Niantic Spatial. “All of Niantic’s original investors will also continue to be shareholders of Niantic Spatial.”

The bigger picture: The move marks the latest in the Kingdom’s USD 40 bn push to become a global gaming hub, as part of the government’s broader economic diversification plans led by the PIF — the primary executing arm for these ambitions. In fact, PIF’s gaming unit Savvy snapped up Scopely for USD 4.9 bn last year in the “largest investment Savvy has made to-date,” CEO Brian Ward at the time. Savvy also signed an MoU with SBI Holdings last month to introduce Japanese gaming companies into its Esports ecosystem.

Niantic's gaming division engages over 30 mn monthly active users and generated more than USD 1 bn in revenue last year. Among its top titles, Pokémon GO continues to be a global sensation, consistently ranking in the top 10 mobile games since its launch nearly a decade ago, with over 100 mn unique players in 2024.

A rough patch for Niantic: Niantic has had “several tough years,” with mass layoffs in 2022 and 2023, Reuters notes. “Beyond the runaway success of Pokémon Go, many of Niantic’s other games have struggled to gain traction or have shut down entirely,” Bloomberg added.

Siemens Energy lands USD 1.6 bn project for gas-fired power plantstech to two gas-fired power plants

Siemens Energy tapped for USD 1.6 bn projects: Germany’s Siemens Energy bagged a USD 1.6 bn contract to provide key tech to the Rumah 2 and Nairyah 2 gas-fired power plants, according to a press release (pdf) from Siemens. China’s Harbin Electric International is the main EPC contractor.

The details: The company will manufacture six gas turbine, four steam turbines, and ten generators, along with other components at its Energy Dammam Hub, which is currently expanding. Siemens will also handle long-term maintenance for 25 years in collaboration with Harbin.

About the plants: The two plants will provide a capacity of 1.8 GW each to the national grid, enough to power around 1.5 mn homes and offset 60% of emissions compared to traditional oil-fired stations, the statement said. Simple cycle operations are set to begin in 2027, with full operations slated for 2028.

SOUND SMART- The projects will incorporate high-efficiency gas turbines in combined-cycle mode, which allow for the use of carbon capture technologies. They are expected to contribute to the government’s energy mix strategy engineered to meet growing demand and diversify energy sources. The Kingdom aims to generate 50% of its electricity needs from natural gas by 2030, with the other half coming from renewables.

Sounds familiar? In November, Abu Dhabi’s National Energy Company (Taqa), Japan’s Jera, and Saudi’s Al Bawan were awarded contracts on a build, own, and operate basis for the two plants, with Taqa acting as the managing and technical lead, and Jera serving as a technical member.

REMEMBER- Siemens is active in the Kingdom: The Saudi Electricity Company signed an agreement with Siemens Energy in October on high-voltage gas-insulated switchgears, as well as seven more agreements for the localization of component production. Siemens also partnered with Egypt's Elsewedy Electric to develop a USD 800 mn power plant in Rabigh, set to be fully completed by the end of 2026.

BSF agrees to lend Diriyah SAR 6 bn for Wadi Safar project

PIF-owned Diriyah Company secured a SAR 6 bn (USD 1.2 bn) financing agreement from Banque Saudi Fransi (BSF) to fund the development of Diriyah’s Wadi Safar project, the company said in a statement on LinkedIn. No further details were provided on the financing terms.

ICYMI- Work began on the Wadi Safar project in July 2024, after the master developer awarded a SAR 8 bn contract to a joint venture comprising local contractor Al Bawani and Urbacon Saudi to build four luxury hotels as well as the Royal Diriyah Equestrian and Polo Club.

About the project: Wadi Safar is a master-planned gated community with resorts, branded residences, and retail outlets. The development “is set to attract over 50 mn visitors by 2030, making it one of the world’s most important cultural and tourism destinations,” Diriyadh said in its statement.

Saudi club spending on int’l transfers slows in 2024 — but remains the highest in the Arab region

The Saudi Pro League remains the largest spender in the Arab region on international signings, despite spending 52.1% less y-o-y in 2024, according to an Asharq Mercato report (pdf). Saudi football clubs’ total spending on international transfers fell to USD 465 from USD 970 mn, marking a sharp contrast with the 18.3x growth experienced between 2022 and 2023.

Targeting young talent: Saudi Pro League clubs invested a combined EUR 153.1 mn on players under the age of 23 during the year, up from EUR 54 mn in 2023. Notable signings include 21-year-old Marcos Leonardo moving from Benfica to Al Hilal for EUR 40 mn, as well as Brazilian promising talents Angelo Gabriel (EUR 23 mn) and Wesly Gassova (EUR 18 mn) arriving to Al Nasr from Chelsea and Corinthians, respectively.

REMEMBER- Officials reportedly asked clubs to focus on homegrown talent and luring promising young international players that can now “learn from the best,” following the 2023 summer transfer window which saw the likes of Neymar, Karim Benzema, and Sadio Mane join the SPL. “This strategic focus on youth players allows us to build long-term success, competitiveness, and sustainability for both the league and the clubs,” an SPL spokesperson said last year.

The regional picture: Arab clubs’ spending on international transfers fell 45.3% y-o-y to USD 667.7 mn in 2024, following a 12.5x growth clip to USD 1.2 bn in the previous year. Meanwhile, revenues were up 40.5% y-o-y at USD 71.2 mn.

We spend the most, but we also make the most: Saudi clubs’ average revenue grew 65.1% y-o-y to SAR 27.9 mn over the same period — outpacing and out-earning their Arab peers, bagging USD 54.8 mn between 2020 and 2024. The SPL was followed by Egypt’s EPL (USD 46.3 mn) and Morocco’s Bottola Pro 1 (USD 42.9 mn). Meanwhile, Saudi spending came in at some SAR 1.6 bn, with Qatar (USD 394.7 mn), the UAE (USD 175.4 mn), and Egypt (USD 38.9 mn) trailing behind.

And it’s paying off: Saudi Arabia’s sports sector added USD 6.9 bn to the Kingdom’s GDP in 2023 — up from USD 2.4 bn in 2016, a report by Surj Sports Investment revealed in December. In 2023, the local sports market grew 12.5% y-o-y to USD 7.2 bn, and forecasters predict the market may hit USD 22.4 bn by 2030.

ICYMI- The Sports Ministry unveiled a SAR 1.7 bn package to three sports initiatives for the 2024-2025 season last December in a bid to support club development.

Savola Group bottom line jumps more than 1,000% in 2024 on Alamari transaction

SAVOLA GROUP-

Savola’s Group’s net income rose 1,009.2% y-o-y to SAR 9.9 bn in FY 2024, driven primarily by a SAR 11.3 bn net gain from offloading its entire stake in Almarai, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The higher bottom line came despite Savola incurring losses from divestments in Iran and discontinued operations in Sudan, as well as its food processing segment seeing its net income fall by SAR 2.1 bn. Meanwhile, Savola also incurred SAR 139 mn in FX losses from the EGP.

Savola’s revenue edged down 0.7% y-o-y to SAR 23.9 bn during the year, with revenue growth in the retail and frozen food segments offset by weaker food processing sales, weighed down by lower commodity prices and divestment from Savola Morocco Company.

The company will not distribute dividends for FY 2024, as it had already distributed SAR 21.1 bn worth of Almarai shares to eligible shareholders in December, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul.

ARABIAN DRILLING-

Arabian Drilling saw its net income decline 46.9% y-o-y to SAR 321.4 mn in FY 2024 due to the deployment of 13 offshore and three land rigs, and higher finance and depreciation expenses, according to an earnings release (pdf ). Revenue grew 4.1% y-o-y to SAR 3.62 bn during the same period.

Looking ahead: Arabian Drilling is targeting SAR 800 mn in revenue for FY 2025, reaping the rewards of its SAR 1.3 bn in 13 new unconventional gas rigs, CEO Ghassan Mirdad told Asharq Business. The company is focusing on tenders in Southeast Asia and West Africa, while also pursuing onshore contracts in Kuwait. Mirdad anticipates stable domestic rig demand supported by shifts from oil to gas platforms.

Dividends: The company’s board approved the distribution of SAR 120.2 mn in dividends for 2H 2024 at SAR 1.35 per share, set to be distributed on 8 April, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. This brings the total dividend payout for FY 2024 to SAR 240.3 mn.

THEEB-

Theeb Rent a Car’s net income increased 28.6% y-o-y to SAR 182.7 mn in FY 2024, driven by stronger performance of short- and long-term rental segments and reduced operational costs, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Revenue also increased 14.7% y-o-y to SAR 1.3 bn on the back of healthier returns, offsetting a decline in income from its short-term rental segment.

Dividends: The car rental car company will be distributing SAR 25.4 mn in dividends for 4Q 2024 at SAR 0.59 per share, it said in a separate disclosure. Eligibility date is set for 16 March, with distribution scheduled for 26 March.

SAICO-

Saudi ArabianCooperativeIns. (SAICO) saw its net income fall 30.6% y-o-y to SAR 49.3 mn in FY 2024 on the back of lower returns from its medical business and rising operating expenses, which were offset by better return on investments, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The company logged a 3.5% y-o-y revenue growth to SAR 1.1 bn during the year.

SUSTAINED INFRASTRUCTURE HOLDING-

Sustained Infrastructure Holding Company (Sisco) reported a net loss of SAR 740k in FY 2024 due to non-recurring provisions and losses, increased investment costs, and higher finance charges, according to a press release (pdf). Revenue fell 17.6% y-o-y to SAR 1.3 bn during the period.

NORTHERN REGION CEMENT-

NorthernRegion Cement’s net income grew 78.9% y-o-y in 2024 to SAR 100.9 mn, driven by gains from selling part of its investments in Iraq, lower financing costs, and lack of settlements, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. Meanwhile, revenue fell 9.7% y-o-y to SAR 622.5 mn, despite a higher average sales price.

Diriyah unveils Armani Residences & Media District at MIPIM Cannes

REAL ESTATE-

Diriyah Company launched its Media and Innovation District and Armani Residences during the MIPIM festival in Cannes, according to a press release. Located near the Diriyah Arena, the 250k-sqm district is set to feature 450 residential homes, over 15k sqm of retail space, and a 325-room 1 Hotel Diriyah.

AND- The Italian studio Armani / Casa will design the 15 limited-edition residences Armani Residences Diriyah and a 70-room Armani Hotel Diriyah, it said in a separate release.

IN CONTEXT- Diriyah is expanding its luxury residential portfolio with branded residences from Baccarat and Ritz-Carlton to provide housing options for 100k residents, attract 50 mn annual visitors, and contribute with USD 18.6 bn directly to Saudi Arabia’s GDP.

LOGISTICS-

RSGT drops anchor in Djibouti: Port operator Red Sea Gateway Terminal (RSGT) inked an MoU to operate and manage Djibouti’s Tadjourah Port for 30 years in a bid to optimize efficiency across port operations, according to a statement. No investment ticket or timeline for the project was disclosed.

Making moves in Djibouti: A consortium of Saudi investors inked a 92-year contract in June to establish a 120k sqm Saudi Logistics City in Djibouti Port freezone — poised to become the Kingdom’s largest foreign logistics zone. The project is set to position Djibouti’s port as a gateway for Saudi exports to Africa.

FINANCIAL SERVICES-

EtihadAtheebTelecommunication (Go Telecom) to establish Hulool Al Intilaq Finance, a micro-consumer financing subsidiary with an initial capital of SAR 20 mn, after obtaining a license from the Saudi Central Bank, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The telecom company is currently in the process of meeting all licensing requirements, which need to be completed within six months from the initial approval, before applying for a full license.

INFRASTRUCTURE -

SEPC + Roshn sign agreement for infrastructure work in Jeddah: India-based construction engineering company SEPC signed a framework agreement with Roshn Group to carry out infrastructure work in three zones of Jeddah North, Phase 1A for a combined amount of SAR 893 mn, according to a filing (pdf) to the Indian exchange. SEPC is expected to receive orders for at least one of the three zones they've bid for. No further details were provided.

Positive inflation report offers relief to battered US stocks

It’s been a turbulent week for the US economy. Fresh inflation data showed price pressures easing slightly, but fears of escalating trade tensions and a potential recession have rattled Wall Street.

How inflation fared last month: Price pressures eased slightly last month with headline inflation coming in at 2.8%, below economists’ forecasts of 2.9-3%, the Financial Times reports. The consumer price index from the US’ Bureau of Labor Statistics showed core inflation increased 0.2%, less than the 0.3% expected and down from January’s 0.3%, but still sits above the Fed’s targeted 2%. Futures markets are now expecting between two and three interest rate cuts this year from the Fed, according to the salmon colored paper.

Despite cooling inflation, recession risks persist. JP Morgan’s chief economist Bruce Kasman told Reuters there is a 40% chance of a US recession this year, citing economic uncertainty and the potential impact of US President Donald Trump’s import tariffs.

The positive inflation report gave US stocks some respite after the battering they took earlier this week, with most indexes gaining some ground. The S&P 500 ended Wednesday up 0.5% after swinging between a stronger early rally and a midday pullback. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 1.2%.

ICYMI- The S&P 500 briefly entered correction territory on Tuesday, down more than 10% from its recent peak, as investor confidence eroded. It also wiped out USD 4 tn on Monday. The sharp sell-off has been driven largely by a 14% plunge in the “Magnificent 7” tech stocks, according to Goldman Sachs, with their price-to-earnings ratio falling from 30x to 26x.

Still, Wall Street is growing increasingly pessimistic about economic stability, with Goldman Sachs cutting its S&P 500 year-end target to 6.2k from 6.5k, citing slower growth and heightened policy risks, Reuters reports. “There’s a huge reset going on right now and a lot of trepidation in the market,” Dec Mullarkey, managing director at fund manager SLC Management, told the FT.

Hopes for a so-called “Trump put” — the belief that the president would intervene to stabilize markets — are fading. Unlike his first term, when stock sell-offs often led to policy reversals, investors now fear Trump may tolerate market turbulence to push through his economic agenda.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei and Topix, as well as South Korea’s Kospi, all up in early trade, while China’s CSI 300 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down marginally. Over on Wall Street, futures indicate a strong open to continue yesterday’s rally.

	TASI	11,705	-0.1% (YTD: -2.8%)
	MSCI Tadawul 30	1,477	-0.4% (YTD: -32.4%)
Uo	NomuC	31,173	+1.3% (YTD: -1.0%)
	USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
	Interest rates	5.0% repo	4.5% reverse repo
	EGX30	31,049	+0.4% (YTD: +4.4%)
	ADX	9,416	+0.4% (YTD: 0.0%)
	DFM	5,157	+0.7% (YTD: 0.0%)
	S&P 500	5,603	+0.6% (YTD: -4.6%)
	FTSE 100	8,541	+0.5% (YTD: +4.5%)
	Euro Stoxx 50	5,359	+0.9% (YTD: +9.5%)
	Brent crude	USD 70.95	+2.0%
	Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 4.01	-1.7%
	Gold	USD 2,945	-0.1%
	BTC	USD 83,800	+1.1% (YTD: -10.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.1% yesterday on turnover of SAR 5.4 bn. The index is down 2.8% YTD.

In the green: AlBaha (+8.3%), Albabtain (+7.1%) and Artex (+6.5%).

In the red: Siig (-4.0%), Savola Group (-3.5%) and Acwa Power (-3.3%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 1.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 28.4 mn. The index is down 1.0% YTD.

In the green: Mulkia (+9.9%), KnowledgeNet (+8.6%) and Aictec (+7.2%).

In the red: Alwaha Reit (-8.0%), Keir (-5.9%) and Ratio (-3.9%).

CALENDAR

MARCH

1-30 March: Ramadan.

13 March (Thursday): Final allocation of shares for Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction’s Tadawul IPO.

16 March (Sunday): Surplus refunds for Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction’s Tadawul IPO.

17 March: Settlement date for Saudi National Bank’s USD-denominated Formosa bonds.

18-19 March (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

31 March-3 April (Monday-Thursday): Eid Al Fitr (TBC).

31 March (Monday): Deadline for applying to theReal Estate General Authority’s Regulatory Sandbox Program.

31 March (Monday): Deadline for applying to the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Global Awards 2025

APRIL

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh.

3-20 April (Thursday-Sunday): AFC Asian U17 Cup.

13-14 April (Sunday-Monday): Human Capability Initiative (HCI) Conference, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

13-16 April (Sunday-Wednesday): EdgeX HCI, The Ritz Carlton, Riyadh.

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah, Riyadh.

17-23 April (Thursday-Wednesday): 11th edition of the Saudi Film Festival, Dhahran.

18-20 April (Friday-Sunday): Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, Jeddah Corniche Circuit, Jeddah.

21-24 April (Monday-Thursday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh.

22-23 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): AAM Middle East, Riyadh.

23-25 April (Wednesday-Friday): Construction and Real Estate Development Exhibition, Jazan.

25 April- 4 May (Friday-Sunday): AFC Champions League Elite Finals

28 April- 30 April (Monday-Wednesday): Automechanika Riyadh, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh.

MAY

May: The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Global Awards 2025 announces its results.

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

12-15 May (Monday-Thursday): Saudi Smart Manufacturing, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-14 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global EV & Mobility Technology Forum, The Arena, Riyadh.

19-20 May (Monday-Tuesday): Tech-ecO-System Summit (ToSS), Riyadh.

23 May (Friday): Guns N’ Roses Show, Riyadh.

31 May-5 June (Saturday-Thursday): Hajj.

JUNE

6-9 June ( Friday-Monday): Eid Al Adha.

17-18 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

26 June (Thursday): 2024-2025 academic year ends.

30 June (Monday): Deadline for Cancellation of Fines and Exemption of Financial Penalties Initiative by the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (Zatca).

JULY

July: The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Global Awards 2025 awards ceremony, Geneva.

31 July (Thursday): Deadline for companies with SAR 2.5 mn or more in 2022/2023 revenues to integrate e-invoicing solutions with Fatoora.

29-30 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

AUGUST

5-17 August (Tuesday-Sunday): Fiba Asian Cup.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Money 20/20 Middle East, Riyadh.

17-18 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

23 September (Tuesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

3-9 November (Monday- Sunday): WTA Tour Finals.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday) The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh Front Convention & Exhibition Centre, Riyadh.

27-30 November (Thursday-Sunday): The World Rally Championship (WRC), Jeddah.

DECEMBER

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): International Conference on Nuclear Emergencies, Riyadh.

4-13 December (Thursday-Saturday): Red Sea International Film Festval, Jeddah.

December: The Fortune Global Forum 2025, Riyadh.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

2026

UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

2027

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.

Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

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