Good morning, ladies and gents. Emirates NBD sees Saudi Arabia facing a larger budget deficit in 2025 than anticipated, due to lower oil prices and increased spending. Speaking of spending, Diriyah Company awarded a USD 1 bn contract for the relocation of King Saud University facilities.
ALSO- Investment activity saw Stanhope Capital partnering with GIB for Saudi expansion, and I-Squared Capital planning to open a Riyadh office. The earnings season also marches on, with Alinma Bank, Astra and Saudi Ceramic reporting 1Q earnings. Let’s dive in.
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HAPPENING TODAY-
Automechanika Riyadh wraps up today at the Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center. The regional automotive aftermarket industry trade show — wrapping up on Wednesday — will feature over 450 exhibitors from more than 30 countries and eight international pavilions.
WEATHER- Thunderstorms may hit Riyadh, while Makkah and Madinah brace for a cloudy day.
- Riyadh: 40°C daytime / 25°C overnight
- Makkah: 41°C daytime / 29°C overnight
- Madinah: 38°C daytime / 25°C overnight
WATCH THIS SPACE-
Banque Saudi Fransi is set to issue additional tier 1 bonds in a bid to shore up its tier 1 capital, the bank said in a disclosure on Monday. The size and terms of the issuance will be determined based on market conditions and remain subject to regulatory approvals.
SOUND SMART- AT1s are high-risk bonds banks use to shore up their capital. They pay interest but can skip payments, and if the bank runs into trouble, the notes can be written off or converted into shares. They have no maturity date and sit just above equity in the capital structure, offering higher returns in exchange for greater risk.
ADVISORS- The lender enlisted HSBC, Mashreq, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Citigroup Global, Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, Emirates NBD Bank, Merrill Lynch, Mizuho International, MUFG Securities, and Saudi Fransi Capital as joint lead managers.
HanhwaAerospace may sign an agreement with the Kingdom to localize sourcing and producing military weapons by the end of the year, Global Defense President and CEO Michael Coulter told Bloomberg. “We are in discussions both in Saudi and UAE right now about programs that will create capacity in the Middle East that address the sovereign, but also help address the security threats,” Coulter said.
A deepening relationship: Hanhwa and the National Guard Ministry signed an MoU “to explore industrial opportunities in the Land Systems … to support the Kingdom’s goal to localize the defense sector” on the sidelines of the World Defense Show 2024 held in Riyadh, according to a press release. The agreement covered the armored vehicles, monitoring and reconnaissance systems, robotics, and satellite technologies.
IN CONTEXT- The Kingdom looks to localize over 50% of its military spending by 2030. That the localization rate of military spending reached 19.35% by November 2024, compared to 4% in 2018, Governor of the General Authority for Military Industries Ahmad Abdulaziz Al-Ohali said back then.
New affordable housing in the works: Saudi Arabia is set to develop affordable housing units priced between SAR 250k and SAR 1.2 mn at residential developments in Riyadh to raise local household ownership to 66% by the end of the year, Municipalities and Housing Minister Majid Al Hogail was quoted as saying by Aleqtisadiah.
Riyadh will see more than 70k units being delivered through developments such as Al Fursan, Khuzam, Asala, and Al Mashraqia to meet a rising demand. The capital requires 120k-130 new units annually, with the private sector meeting only 40-45% of that demand. The National Housing Company will also partner with local and international developers to fulfill about 38% of the gap, Al Hogail added.
IN CONTEXT- The Kingdom launched real estate reforms earlier in March to increase land availability, improve rental rules, and control rising property prices in Riyadh. The reforms are to include amending the White Land Tax Law — which Al Hogail expects to happen within days — and issuing new rental regulations.
REMEMBER- Riyadh saw the highest increase in its real estate prices in 1Q 2025, up 10.7% y-o-y. Last year, apartment prices in Riyadh rose 10.6% y-o-y, while villa prices increased 6.3%. Overall, the real estate price index rose 4.3% y-o-y over the same period, driven primarily by a 5.1% rise in residential property prices and a 2.5% uptick in commercial real estate prices.
PIF-backed Riyadh Air is on track to receive its first aircraft in 3Q 2025 and start commercial flights by the end of the year, the company’s VP of Marketing and Corporate Communications Osamah Alnuaiser told Asharq Business (watch, runtime: 5:04). The airline is receiving planes through two major agreements for Boeing 787 Dreamliners and Airbus A321neos. It also plans to integrate AI in its operations, with support from Microsoft and IBM, to improve data analysis and passenger services.
ICYMI- The carrier said earlier this week it was ready to purchase Boeing planes originally meant for Chinese airlines should they be impacted by the ongoing trade war between the US and China.
Dubai-based Khazna Data Centers is planning an expansion drive in Saudi Arabia, aiming to capture at least 25% of the kingdom’s growing data center market, CEO Hassan Alnaqbi told Bloomberg. The firm has picked two sites for expansion where it thinks local Saudi firms don’t have the capacity required by the increasing number of US hyperscalers — large cloud service and data center providers — that are looking to the Gulf’s cheap energy and real estate for expansion.
Khazna controls about 71% of the UAE’s existing data center capacity, and, in addition to European expansion plans, its 12 data centers under construction include sites in Turkey and Kenya.
DATA POINTS-
Consumer spending via point-of-sale (PoS) transactions in the Kingdom posted a slight decline of 0.8% w-o-w in the week ending Saturday, 26 April to settle at SAR 11.4 bn, according to the Saudi Central Bank’s report (pdf). The number of weekly transactions also fell by 1.1% w-o-w to 199.8 mn.
The details: Food and beverage made up the biggest chunk of spending in terms of value during the week, growing only 0.6% w-o-w to some SAR 1.7 bn. The figure nearly matched Restaurants and cafes, which dropped by 2.1% w-o-w to SAR 1.6 bn. PoS transactions on jewelry posted the steepest dip for the second straight week, slipping 18.2% w-o-w to SAR 320.8 mn.
Riyadh once again had the highest value of PoS transactions at SAR 4.1 bn, followed by Jeddah at SAR 1.7 bn.
SPORTS-
Al Ahli is officially the first 2025 AFC Champions League finalist after defeating Al Hilal three to one. The team directed by Matthias Jaissle scored twice before the first half-hour, and another goal during overtime. The Blue Waves attempted a comeback with a goal by Aldawasiri (42’) at the end of the first half, but found itself at a disadvantage after Koulibaly was sent off 15 minutes into the second half.
What’s next? Al Nassr will measure against Kawasaki Frontale today at 7:30pm. The winner will square off against Al Ahli in the championship final, set for Saturday, 3 May.
OVER IN ESPORTS- A new PUBG Mobile Championship: PUBG Mobile and the Saudi Esports Federation signed an agreement to launch the PUBG Mobile National Championship as part of the Saudi Esports League, according to a press release. Whoever comes on top will earn a spot in the global PUBG Mobile World Cup, distributing a total of USD 3 mn in prizes.
More details: The agreement aims to develop the local gaming scene and provide a path for Saudi players to compete globally. It also includes training programs through the Saudi Esports Federation Academy and university leagues to support young talent.
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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-
It’s all about US President Donald Trump’s 100 days in office in the global business press. His rally in Michigan to mark his 100th day made headlines, as Trump touted his time in office so far as the “most successful 100 days of any administration in the history of our country,” and defended his economic policies, including tariffs.
He also renewed his attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, saying he is not doing a good job and that he understands interest rates better during a rally in Michigan to mark his 100th day. He had already denied plans to fire the Fed chief after he criticized the pace of his rate cuts earlier this month. (Bloomberg | Reuters | Guardian | NBC)
As he defended tariffs, he also signed an executive order to give automakers in the US a two-year grace period to boost the percentage of domestic car parts before applying the 25% levy on foreign ones. Meanwhile, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC he had reached a trade agreement with one country on reciprocal tariffs, without mentioning the name of the country. (Reuters | AP | New York Times | Wall Street Journal)
MEANWHILE- A handful of 1Q 2025 earnings are getting attention, including Samsung’s, which beat analysts’ estimates with a record quarterly revenue — up 10% y-o-y — on the back of an increase in sales of chips and Galaxy S25 smartphones. (CNBC | Bloomberg)

