Binladen Group is now under FinMin control

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Catalyst Partners wants an investment bank in Saudi

Good morning, wonderful people. 2025 is barreling towards its last day, and the usual calm has been disrupted by two big stories in today’s news well.

The first? The finance ministry swapped debts for a stake in Binladen International Holding, effectively taking control after years of restructuring efforts of the debt-ridden group.

We’re also taking stock of labor market figures for the third quarter, which shows Saudi unemployment bounced back to 7.5%, signaling we’re not out of the woods yet (or not, depending on who you ask). Let’s dive in.

** PROGRAMMING NOTE- We’re off on Thursday for New Year’s Day, and will be back in your inboxes on Sunday, 3 January.

Watch this space

INVESTMENT — Egypt-based impact investor Catalyst Partners wants to scale its presence in Saudi, aiming to transition to a full-fledged investment bank in Riyadh, co-founder of Catalyst Partners Abdelaziz Abdel Nabi tells EnterpriseAM. Applications are pending approval from Sama and the Capital Markets Authority.

A bigger piece: The firm aims to shift from brokering deals to actively managing assets and scaling a lending portfolio in the Kingdom. "Currently, about 20% of our business comes from Saudi Arabia. We want to increase that to 50% or 60% within the next three years," Abdel Nabi tells us.

Non-banking financial services are a priority for Catalyst: “We have a major focus on financial leasing and factoring to aggressively grow our [Saudi] portfolio,” Abdel Nabi said. The company plans to further market penetration by acquiring controlling stakes in companies working in the sector or getting licensed directly.

Hot on the heels of big moves for Catalyst’s SPAC: Catalyst Partners Middle East — Egypt’s first blank check company or SPAC — closed up 20% on its first day of trading on the EGX on Sunday. This is three months after the company completed its acquisition of Qardy and Catalyst Partners through share swaps.

Dive deeper: Check out EnterpriseAM Egypt’s conversation with the Catalyst Partners Chairman Maged Shawky.

BANKING — Sama is cracking down on lenders asking for promissory notes before issuing credit card products . A new circular (pdf) bans all banks and finance companies from requiring promissory notes (or any commercial papers) from retail customers when issuing credit cards. The directive goes into effect on 1 February.

Not just for new business: Lenders must provide Sama with a corrective action plan within 30 days to return or cancel existing promissory notes currently held against cardholders. They will have a maximum of six months to be done with the cleanup.

Why this matters: Banks will now be forced to rely solely on standard credit guarantees — such as salary assignments and Simah reports — rather than holding a promissory note over the customer's head. Without promissory notes fast-tracking enforcement in case of defaults, lenders will have to engage in restructuring or settlement talks before they can trigger harsher measures.

Market watch

Saudi Arabia might cut crude oil export prices to Asia for the third consecutive month in February, unnamed sources told Reuters, citing weaker demand in spot markets amid rising supply. Refiners expect a drop in Arab Light prices of USD 0.10-0.30 per bbl, lowering premiums to USD 0.30-0.50 above the Oman/Dubai benchmark, extending the USD 0.60 per bbl loss from January.

By the numbers: Arab Extra Light crude may fall by USD 0.10-0.20, while Arab Medium and Arab Heavy grades could remain unchanged or dip by USD 0.10.

Estimates of oil prices have been in limbo as Opec+ spent the better half of the year unwinding cuts, and the International Energy Agency has been warning of a glut. Check our recent Year in Review story on the diverging outlooks for oil markets in 2026.

Happening tomorrow

The Six Flags Qiddiya City amusement park goes live tomorrow, the first entertainment asset to open its doors in Qiddiya City. The park — Six Flags’ first foray outside North America — offers 28 rides and a slate of headline attractions, including Falcon’s Flight, Rattler, and Spitfire.

Data point

SAR 1.7 tn — that’s how much MSMEs raked in total operating revenue in 2024, up 7% y-o-y, according to data (pdf) from Gastat. Wholesale and retail trade contributed 36.3% to the total, followed by manufacturing with 19.3% and construction with 15.7%. Meanwhile, total operating expenditure rose 5.7% y-o-y during the year to SAR 762.9 bn.

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The big story abroad

It’s only fitting that AI remains squarely in focus in the global business press as 2025 roars to a close.

#1- SoftBank Group is doubling down on the physical backbone of artificial intelligence, agreeing to acquire US-based digital infrastructure investor DigitalBridge Group in a USD 4 bn transaction that expands the Japanese conglomerate’s exposure to data centers, fiber networks, and other AI-critical assets.

Why it matters: The acquisition comes as SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son accelerates his push to position the group as a central player in what he calls “next-generation AI infrastructure.” Investors are racing to secure the computing power, connectivity, and energy capacity underpinning the AI boom.

#2- Nvidia has quietly completed a USD 5 bn investment in Intel, throwing another financial lifeline to the once high-flying US chipmaker.

MEANWHILE- It’s another geopolitics-heavy morning with sabre rattling heard from our corner of the world to the Taiwan Strait. Here’s what you need to know:

After a meeting with Netanyahu, Trump has promised to “knock the hell” out of Iran if it rebuilds its missile or nuclear programs. “I’m not concerned about anything that Israel is doing,” he told reporters at a joint presser in Florida.
Trump sidestepped questions about what’s next for Gaza.
Protests continue in Iran, with people taking to the streets in Tehran and other major cities to denounce the high cost of living.

AND- US stocks lagged emerging markets and just about everyone else this year. Here’s the breakdown:

S&P500 — up 17.4% YTD
MSCI All Country World ex-US — up 29%
MSCI Emerging Markets — up 31.8%
EGX30 — Up 40.3%

The S&P lagged China, Japan, Germany, and the UK as even “relatively unloved” markets made a comeback, the Financial Times notes.

FinMin is taking direct control of BinLaden group

The Finance Ministry is taking direct control of Saudi Binladin Group, upping its stake in Binladin International Holding Group — the holding company established in 2019 to manage the family's assets — to 86.38% from 36%, Asharq Business reports, citing a company statement. The massive debt-for-equity swap through a capital increase was approved by shareholders on Sunday, but the exact value remains under wraps.

Background

The move is the last act in a years-long saga to rescue the Kingdom’s most critical construction agent.

The liquidity crisis that nearly felled the Kingdom’s oldest contractor began in 2015, triggered by the infamous crane collapse incident at the Grand Mosque in Makkah that claimed over 100 lives. The immediate fallout was a ban on new contracts for several months, which was exacerbated by a crash in oil prices that forced the government to delay payments to contractors just as SBG’s balance sheets were bleeding.

How much were the group’s debts? Some USD 20-30 bn, unnamed sourced told Reuters back in 2019 when the company was looking for a financial adviser for restructuring its mounting debts. It found it later in 2020, hiring US-based Houlihan Lokey to oversee a restructuring program estimated at SAR 56.4 bn.

Gov’t to the rescue

The first real signal of a state rescue came in October 2024, when the National Debt Management Center stepped in to arrange a SAR 23.3 bn syndicated loan, shortly after the finance ministry laid out a plan to settle the group's outstanding cash dues to banks. The ministry said the plan would involve providing loans to the group and potentially increasing the government's stake.

“This initiative is designed to enhance the Binladin Group's ability to complete its ongoing projects, particularly those related to the Holy Mosques,” FinMin said back then.

Why it matters

Helping a vital private sector player the size of Binladen get their ducks in order — instead of being paralyzed by bankruptcy courts or liquidity crises — is always a good idea. The Kingdom is racing against a ticking clock to deliver infrastructure for Expo 2030 and the 2034 World Cup, while the construction sector is facing a capacity crunch. A Binladen collapse would also threaten tens of thousands of jobs.

Bankers can also sleep better: Local banks held significant exposure to the group — which Binladin International Holding Group CEO Khalid Al Gwaiz estimated at 70-80% of the total debt back in 2021.

What’s next? Pundits see the move triggering major new project announcements and board changes over the coming weeks.

Saudi unemployment bounces back up in 3Q

The unemployment rate for Saudi citizens rose for the second consecutive quarter to 7.5% in 3Q 2025, hitting its highest level in a year, figures from Gastat showed. The rise is a notable reversal from 1Q, when the Kingdom hit a historic low of 6.3% — a figure that had met the 2030 target years ahead of schedule.

The breakdown

Saudi male unemployment climbed to 5%, its highest level since Q1 2022. Female unemployment also spiked to 12.1% (up from 11.3%), the highest in four quarters.

The Saudi labor participation rate — which reflects the percentage of employed working-age nationals — dropped to 49%, its lowest since 2021. Female participation also dipped to 33.7%.

What the numbers mean

“What’s notable is the unemployment rate rose while participation fell, with the overall data indicating that a lot of people are just not even entering the workforce,” Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, told Bloomberg.

The reasons? Jobs may not be easy to come by, or more Saudis are taking time off or joining training programs, according to Malik.

Meanwhile, the economy continued to create jobs for expats: Non-Saudi unemployment remained unchanged at 1.4%, which could be a signal of a skill gap between the local and the expat workforce, Malik added.

Why it matters

Our labor market may not be out of the woods yet. With non-oil private sector growth slowing in 3Q, the economy is struggling to absorb new entrants at the pace required to hit the government’s newly revised, more ambitious unemployment target of 5%.

"The easy part of bringing unemployment down is done. The next phase is going to be more difficult, especially with the low oil price environment,” Malik added.

A contrarian view: Tis the season

Not everyone sees the rise as an alarm bell. Bandar Al Juaid, professor of economic media at King Abdulaziz University, told Asharq Business the 3Q spike is driven by "seasonal factors,” specifically the annual influx of new graduates hitting the market in the summer. Al Juaid dismisses the idea that oil price volatility is bleeding into the labor market, saying the friction is instead due to "sectoral shifts" as the workforce adapts to new flexible work patterns and tech-driven roles.

That would mean the long-term trend remains positive: Unemployment is still hovering near historical lows compared to the double-digit rates we saw a few years ago.

Road network overhaul enters phase 3 + Maaden-Hancock JV to explore Makkah gold belt

Riyadh kicks off phase 3 of its road network overhaul

Riyadh’s road network is getting a boost: The Royal Commission for Riyadh City launched six projects worth over SAR 8 bn in the third phase of the Riyadh Main and Ring Road Axes ‎Development Program, it said in a statement. The projects are expected to be delivered in three to four years.

The projects cover the Jeddah Road, which will see the development of 14 bridges and five main lanes, as well as multiple developments Taif Road, Thumamah Road , the northern section of both of King Abdulaziz Road, and Othman bin Affan Road. Phase two is also getting a polish, with the commission aiming to enhance traffic capacity by 40-60% through engineering enhancements across eight congested locations.

BACKGROUND- The first phase was launched in August 2024 and the second in February 2025 — with a total value of SAR 21 bn across 12 projects — as part of the Ring Roads Axes Development Program, which kicked off in 2019. The program includes upgrades to some 500 km of roads in Riyadh.

Maaden, Hancock fast-track Makkah gold belt with JV

The Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden) and Australia-based Midana Exploration launched a JV with an initial capital of USD 5 mn to explore Makkah’s Nabitah Al Duwaihi gold belt, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. Maaden owns a majority stake of 50.1% in the new entity and Hancock the remaining 49.9%.

BACKGROUND- The Industry and Mineral Resources Ministry awarded nine exploration licenses for 25 sites in the Nabitah Al Duwaihi belt in September. The companies and consortia awarded the licenses pledged to spend a combined SAR 156 mn on exploration at the sites.

AI startups lock in years of runway as investors brace for turbulence

AI startups are stockpiling liquidity. Global AI companies raised a record USD 150 bn in 2025, building multi-year funding cushions to brace against a possible sector downturn as investors grow wary that the boom could falter, the Financial Times reports.

The buffers aren’t evenly spread: A handful of mega-rounds — OpenAI’s USD 41 bn round, Anthropic’s USD 13 bn round, and Meta’s USD 14 bn investment into Scale AI — did most of the work, concentrating firepower among a small group of perceived outperformers, as investors look to tap into more certain ventures.

Those leaders now sit on four to five years of runway, far above historical norms, after locking in capital at peak valuations. Rather than the usual break of several years between funding rounds, AI heavyweights have only been waiting a few months recently before raising more capital — partially as a result of costly operational needs.

The playbook has shifted from scaling fast to staying above water. Investors are pushing founders to raise early and raise big, even at the cost of dilution. “When the market is providing the option, build a fortress balance sheet,” said Lucas Swisher of Coatue.

Liquidity doubles as leverage: Deep war chests let top firms outspend rivals on talent, compute, and infrastructure — and move fast on consolidation if sentiment turns. “It’ll be like an acquisition a week the minute there’s a spook in the public markets,” said Jeremy Kranz of Sentinel Global.

Why this caution makes sense: The AI boom rests on fragile plumbing, from self-reinforcing Big Tech financing loops to off-balance-sheet infrastructure funding that obscures leverage.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are having another mixed morning on the second-to-last trading day of the year. Japan’s Nikkei is slightly in the red in early trading, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is in the green, and the Shanghai Composite is essentially flat. Across the pond, it’s looking decidedly more red, with US futures suggesting the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq will all open lower later today.

TASI	10,490	+0.7% (YTD: -12.9%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,389	+0.8% (YTD: -8.0%)
NomuC	23,273	+0.1% (YTD: -26.1%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	41,732	+0.3% (YTD: +40.3%)
ADX	10,061	+0.3% (YTD: +6.7%)
DFM	6,137	+0.1% (YTD: +18.9%)
S&P 500	6,906	-0.4% (YTD: +17.4%)
FTSE 100	9,867	0.0% (YTD: +20.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,752	+0.1% (YTD: +17.5%)
Brent crude	USD 61.94	+2.1%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.95	-0.9%
Gold	USD 4,357	+0.3%
BTC	USD 87,125	-1.3% (YTD: -6.7%)
Sukuk/bond market index	911.83	0.0% (YTD: +1.1%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.73	+0.1% (YTD: +8.4%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	14.20	+4.4% (YTD: -18.2%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.7% yesterday on turnover of SAR 2.6 bn. The index is down 12.9% YTD.

In the green: Raoom (+9.7%), Salama (+7.3%) and Almasar Alshamil (+5.6%).

In the red: Alyamamah Steel (-5.5%), Amlak (-4.1%) and Saudi Cable (-4.0%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.1% yesterday on turnover of SAR 17.0 mn. The index is down 26.1% YTD.

In the green: Mayar (+13.5%), Sign World (+8.7%) and Knowledge Tower (+8.1%).

In the red: Balsam Medical (-10.0%), Mobi Industry (-8.0%) and Ghida Alsultan (-7.7%).

CALENDAR

DECEMBER

31 December (Wednesday): Zatca 22nd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

31 December (Wednesday): Cancellation of Fines and Exemption of Financial Penalties Initiative by the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (Zatca) deadline.

2026

JANUARY

1 January (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for 54k properties in 77 neighborhoods across Riyadh, Makkah, and the Eastern Province.

1 January (Thursday): Electronic salary transfer via the Musaned platform becomes mandatory for all domestic workers in the Kingdom.

10-18 January (Saturday-Sunday): Public school mid-year break.

13-15 January (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Minerals Forum, King Abdul Aziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

15 January (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for 31.7k properties in 14 neighborhoods in the Eastern Province.

15 January (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for about 157.3k properties in 78 neighborhoods across the Eastern Province.

15 January (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for about 41.7k properties across 115 neighborhoods in Riyadh, Qassim, and the Eastern Province.

18-21 January (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Hospital Design and Build Expo, Riyadh.

26-27 January (Monday-Tuesday): SuperReturn Saudi Arabia, Hotel Fairmont, Riyadh.

26-27 (Monday-Tuesday): GPRC Summit, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Franchise Expo (SFE), Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): Real Estate Future Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): IFAT Saudi Arabia, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center, Riyadh,

27-28 (Tuesday-Wednesday): SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh.

28 (Wednesday): Data Center Nation Riyadh, Riyadh.

28-30 (Wednesday-Friday): Jeddah International Travel and Tourism Exhibition (JTTX), Jeddah.

FEBRUARY

2-4 (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Media Forum, Riyadh.

2-4 (Monday-Wednesday): Women Leaders Summit and Awards KSA, Riyadh.

2-13 (Monday-Friday): 2026 Asian Road Cycling Championship and Paralympic Cycling, Qassim.

3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday): RLC Global Forum Annual Meeting, Riyadh.

4 (Wednesday): Michelin Guide’s Restaurant Celebration, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

5-7 February (Thursday-Saturday): LIV Golf 2026 season opener, Riyadh Golf Club, Riyadh.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh.

9-10 February (Monday-Tuesday): Global Games Show Riyadh 2026, Malf Hall, Riyadh.

9-14 February (Monday-Saturday): Asian Racing Conference, Crowne Plaza Riyadh RDC Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

11 (Wednesday) Digital Transformation Summit Saudi Arabia (DTS), Riyadh.

11-14 (Wednesday-Saturday): JeddaDerm, Jeddah.

13-14 February (Friday-Saturday): Jeddah E-Prix 2026, Jeddah.

15-17 February (Sunday-Tuesday): The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh Front & Exhibition Center.

16 February (Monday) King Salman Stadium design-and-build contract prequalification submission deadline.

22 February (Sunday): Founding Day.

26 February (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for 142.8k properties across 104 neighborhoods in Hail.

MARCH

12 March (Thursday): Deadline for real estate registration for 253.2k properties in 499 neighborhoods across Riyadh, Qassim, Makkah, and Hail.

17-23 March (Tuesday-Monday): Eid Al-Fitr holiday.

21 March (Saturday): Fanatics Flag Football Classic, Kingdom Arena, Riyadh.

31 March (Tuesday): Zatca’s 23rd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

APRIL

6 April (Monday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

6-7 April (Monday-Tuesday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-16 April (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21 April (Tuesday): GC Summit Saudi Arabia 2026, Saudi Arabia.

27-29 April (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

MAY

3-5 May (Sunday-Tuesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh.

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

24-28 (Sunday-Thursday): Eid al-Adha holiday.

JUNE

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production in 2026.
November: UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh.
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.
6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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