Banks are in for stable growth this year -S&P

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Aramco CEO sees healthy oil market demand in 2025

Good morning, wonderful readers. It’s another packed issue as we head towards the end of a very busy week, both at home and in the US. In today’s issue: S&P is out with its Banking Sector Outlook (and it’s looking good); PIF’s Social Impact Capital confirms its 88.7% stake in Egypt’s CIRA Education; and Gaca reports latest numbers on complaints against air carriers and airports. Let’s dive in.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Trading on Raoom Trading’s shares will be suspended starting today ahead of its main market transition, Tadawul said in a statement. The suspension will last a maximum of five trading sessions, although the exchange has yet to confirm when Raoom will formally debut on the main market.

WEATHER- Riyadh will see a high of 21°C and a low of 6°C today, while Jeddah’s mercury will go as high as 30°C before tapering off to 22°C. Makkah’s weather will see a 31°C high and 21°C low.

PSAs-

#1- Investors have until 4 March to purchase the bid document for a project to build, operate, and maintain a dry port east of Buraidah in Qassim under a 50-year contract, according to state news agency SPA. Details are available on the Furas platform.

#2- The Commerce Ministry is seeking feedback on its commercial registry system proposal, putting up the draft regs for consultation on Istitlaa until 15 February 2025. The new regs ban duplicated commercial names for businesses and give companies a five-year grace period to do away with their sub-records by establishing a new company, transferring the sub-record to another entity, or canceling it altogether. We’ve covered the regs in full detail here.

#3- The Interior Ministry introduced an advanced drone to its road security system, featuring a fully-electric engine that allows it to operate at altitudes of up to 6k meters, the Saudi Gazette reports. The drone can zoom up to 30x and detect objects within a 50 km range using radars, sensors, and dual cameras combining optical and thermal imaging. It is also built to withstand harsh weather conditions.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Olam Group and PIF-backed Salic are set to put pen to paper for the Olam Agri acquisition: The Singapore-based agricultural trader is close to finalizing the full sale of its agribusiness unit, Olam Agri Holdings, to Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Co. (Salic), with an announcement in the cards by the end of January or early February, Wall Street Journal reports, citing people familiar with the matter.

Where does this leave Olam Agri’s IPO plans? In August 2023, Olam Agri announced plans to pursue a dual listing in Singapore and Saudi Arabia by 1H 2024, though the timeline has been delayed due to “regulatory bottlenecks,” according to Reuters. It remains unclear whether the acquisition will see the agribusiness firm’s new owners scrap its IPO plans entirely, or if the offering could still materialize.

Background: Salic made a non-binding offer in November to take Olam’s remaining stake in the agribusiness unit, which stands at 64.57% after Salic acquired a 35.43% stake in 2022 in a USD 1.24 bn transaction — valuing the Olam Agri at USD 3.5 bn at the time. The follow-on transaction could push the value up to USD 4 bn, according to Bloomberg.

#2- Trump hints at eventual Saudi-Israeli normalization: US President Donald Trump hinted at the possibility of the Kingdom joining the Abraham Accords during his inaugural day remarks while signing executive orders (watch, runtime: 41:33). “I think it’s going to happen, maybe not quite yet, but they’ll end up being in the accords,” said Trump.

REMEMBER- Previous reports indicated that Trump is eager to secure a normalization accord between Saudi Arabia and Israel during his term, after a previous Biden-led effort that would have also included US security assurances to Riyadh, as well as cooperation on nuclear technologies and AI fell through due to the outbreak of the War in Gaza. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia insists on assurances for a credible path to Palestinian statehood before normalizing ties with Israel.

#3- GAS pulls the brakes on main market transition: Nomu-listed Gas Arabian Services (GAS) has withdrawn its request to transition to Tadawul’s main market, citing the need to square away additional liquidity and regulatory requirements, it said in a filing to the exchange.

REFRESHER- The Dammam-based company submitted its request to move up Tadawul’s big league back in September 2024. GAS planned to debut an additional 10% stake on the market in a secondary share sale to meet the necessary requirements.

#4- Dinar Investment Company received the green light from the Capital Market Authority for the public offering of its Dinar Saudi Equity Fund, the authority said in a statement. Dinar Investment received a license from the authority in October to carry out investment and fund management activities, as well as custody services.

DATA POINTS-

#1- The Interior Ministry’s Absher platform processed over 8.5 mn electronic transactions in December 2024, it said in a statement. Individuals accounted for over 6 mn transactions, including 84.7k ID verification checks and 38k ID renewals.

#2- Commercial registrations in the arts, entertainment, and amusement sector grew 20% y-o-y in 2024, the Commerce Ministry said in a post on X. Creative arts and entertainment activities saw 30% growth to 4.2k records, amusement parks 26% to 6.1k, recreational activities 25% to 14.2k, and sports clubs 18% to 8.1k.

#3- The Kingdom exported 1.5 bn tons of dates in 2024, nearly tripling from 579 mn tons in 2016, state news agency SPA reports citing figures from the National Center for Palms and Dates. Saudi Arabia has over 123k agricultural holdings cultivating 300 date varieties, with more than 37 mn palm trees producing over 3 bn tons of dates annually.

#4- In the past year, the Environment, Water, and Agriculture Ministry issued 1.4k water resource licenses, including 1.1k for groundwater use, 81 for bottled water factories, and 23 for well drilling activities, it said in a post on X. The ministry also granted 124 licenses for non-potable tanks and 66 for non-potable objects.

OIL WATCH-

A healthy oil market could see demand increase by 1.3 mn bbl / d this year to reach 106 mn bbl / d, Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told Reuters on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos. “We will wait and see [how US President Donald Trump’s plans to increase US oil output will] translate into tightness in the market, it is still in the early stage,” said Nasser.

ICYMI- Trump pledged to ramp up US oil production under his term, which could result in additional price pressures for MENA oil-producing states, with estimates from OPEC and the International Energy Agency projecting relatively weak demand for oil in 2025.

“We see good demand coming from China,” Nasser separately told Bloomberg, maintaining that the oil market is seeing “healthy and balanced” dynamics between supply and demand (watch, runtime: 19:43). Some 40% of global growth in oil demand comes from Asia — particularly China and India, Nasser said. While reports suggest that China’s demand for gasoline might dip as EVs gain traction, the country’s appetite for oil-derived chemicals is on the rise, he said. The state-owned oil giant has already started investing in China-based chemical-producing oil refineries, aiming for 10%-20% stakes in the projects. Contracts to supply these facilities with 60% of their oil needs are also in the works in a bid to secure long-term demand, Nasser said.

BACKGROUND- The Kingdom is set to dial back its crude oil shipments to China in February, cutting allocations to an estimated 43.5 mn barrels, down from January’s three-month high of 46 mn barrels, Reuters reported earlier this month. Key Chinese refiners including state-owned CNOOC and PetroChina, and privately-held Hengli, are set to take fewer barrels, even as Sinopec and Sinochem reportedly move to increase their deliveries.

Excess capacity to maintain market stability: Aramco has 3 mn bbl / d of excess capacity readily available to address the potential impact of the US’ sanctions on Russia or other changes in the market, based on the ministry’s monthly targets to maintain market stability. Some two-thirds of oil consumption today comes from the Global South, with that share expected to rise to 90% by 2050, creating space for growth, Nasser said.

And on Aramco’s dividend sustainability: Addressing concerns about dividends in 2025, Nasser maintained that Aramco plans to allocate 50-70% of freecash flow (after base dividends and external investments) to shareholders, subject to board approval. “We have a proven track record of delivering value to shareholders,” he said, dismissing similar past concerns. Aramco’s 2024 dividend payouts totaled USD 81 bn in 2024.

SPORTS-

Your move, Al Ittihad: Al Hilal dispatched Al Wehda 4-1 at home yesterday, adding a three-point cushion between them and their closest rival for this year’s Saudi Pro League season, Al Ittihad, who face Al Shabab today at 8pm. It’s been tit for tat so far this season between these two clubs, with only goal difference giving Al Hilal an advantage so far.

More highlights from matchday 16:

Al Nassr is still keeping pace with the league leaders after overcoming Al Khaleej 3-1 away from home courtesy of a Ronaldo brace;
Al Ahli beat Al Ettifaq two goals to one to close the gap on the top four;
Al Feiha and Al Akhdoud both broke out of the relegation zone following victories against Al Kholood and Al Raed;
One goal was enough for Al Riyadh to edge past 10-man Al Taawoun.

Still to come this matchday: Al Qadisiyah go to Al Orobah for an afternoon fixture (5pm), where they will look to retake third place from Al Nassr, while rock-bottom Al Fateh and 10th placed Damac square up at 5:55pm.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s another morning of the global business press being led primarily by newly-minted US President Donald Trump and his first hours in office, specifically a massive AI infrastructure investment plan — and, of course, the latest round of tariff threats for Chinese imports.

OpenAI, Softbank, and Oracle are planning a USD 100 bn investment in AI infrastructure in the US, which the three companies will execute under a new joint venture named Stargate. The JV — which Trump hailed as a “declaration of confidence in America” — could ramp up its investments to as much as USD 500 bn over the next four years, with SoftBank handling the financial responsibilities of the venture and OpenAI taking over operations. Stargate will be responsible for building out “physical and virtual infrastructure to power the next generation of advancements in AI and this will include the construction of colossal data centers,” Trump said. (Financial Times | Bloomberg | CNBC)

MEANWHILE- Trump is still considering slapping a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, saying he and his team could look to impose the new duty as early as 1 February. The tariff would be imposed due to China allegedly exporting fentanyl — a synthetic illicit drug that has caused scores of overdose-related deaths in the US — to Canada and Mexico. Trump also vowed to impose tariffs on the EU to address its skewed trade balance with the US. (Reuters | Bloomberg | CNBC)

AND- The flurry of decisions from the White House has led firms across the spectrum of industries to set up “war rooms” as executives scramble to digest their impact on their businesses and clientele, the Wall Street Journal says.

Banks are in for stable growth this year -S&P

It’s steady growth ahead for Saudi’s banking sector: The local banking sector is looking at a stable year on the back of strong corporate lending, mortgage demand, and funding needs for diversification push, despite lower interest rates, according to S&P Global’s Saudi Arabia Banking Sector Outlook 2025 (pdf).

Deep dive: Local banks are expected to see stable earnings this year, as higher volumes make up for narrower interest rate margins. Return on assets is estimated at 2.1%-2.2% for the year, while net interest margins are expected to narrow by 20-30 bps due to Saudi Central Bank’s (Sama) Fed-aligned rate cuts. Strong credit growth is expected to offset this decline.

Floating-rate corporate loans (50% of total loans) are expected to reprice quickly and rake in lower interest rate income, while fixed-rate long-term mortgages (25% of loans) will provide income stability. While lower interest rates will also decrease funding costs, further drops in rates may lead consumers to demand deposits, affecting bank funding portfolios.

Our banks are also well-capitalized: The banking sector reported a 19.2% capital adequacy ratio in late September, well ahead of the minimum 10.5% requirement. Dividend payout ratios are expected to average 50%, supported by strong earnings.

Diversification to fuel credit growth: Corporate lending will underpin a forecasted 10% credit growth, as companies look to bankroll diversification projects. Meanwhile, lower interest rates are expected to boost mortgage lending, while expanding mortgage portfolios will also be supported by growing demographics and a rising demand for residential real estate.

Non-performing loans are expected to inch up to 1.7% of total loans this year, up from 1.3% in September 2024, due to limited loan write-offs. The accumulation of NPLs is expected to remain slow due to low interest rates. Credit losses are expected to be capped at 50-60 bps through the coming two years due to strong loan provisions.

Private sector leveraging is set to increase due to lower interest rates, but will remain below 150% of GDP in the medium term, the report said.

On the flipside: The uptick in lending has outpaced deposit, straining liquidity. Saudi banks are turning to external funding to support diversification initiatives, with local banks transitioning to net external debt in 2H 2024. Liquidity is set be bolstered by initiatives such as Saudi Real Estate Refinance (SRC), Hassana’s mortgage-backed securities, and SRC’s BlackRock partnership that look to unlock foreign and local capital. The central bank could also intervene to mitigate any further strains.

Fiscal risks from rising debt are set to be softened by the recalibration ofgigaprojects, with the government expected to maintain a net asset position above 40% of GDP through 2027.

REMEMBER- Deficits aren’t all bad: Deficits of SAR 100-140 bn can be beneficial, Finance Minister Mohammed Al Jadaan told Al Arabiya late last year, as long as the returns on public spending exceed the cost of borrowing. The Kingdom looks to benefit from the interest rate reversal to increase borrowing, signalling fiscal expansion in 2025, 2026, and 2027.

A snapshot of bank ratings: Al Rajhi, Saudi National Bank, Riyad Bank, are all rated A-/Positive/A-2. Banque Saudi Fransi and Arab National Bank had same ratings but with stable outlooks, while Alinma Bank and Saudi Investment Bank were rated A-/Stable/– and BBB/Positive/A-2, respectively.

THE MACRO LENS-

S&P Global forecasts 4.0% GDP growth for Saudi Arabia between 2025-2027, up from 0.8% in 2024, on the back of non-oil sector growth. The state’s diversification agenda is set to be a key driver for non-oil economic growth in the medium run, leading to upswings in construction and services, with tourism also showing strong growth potential due to easier visitor access and increased options.

REMEMBER- The IMF revised down its projections for the Kingdom’s economy earlier this month, to 3.2% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026. The World Bank was more optimistic, forecasting 3.4% growth for 2025 and 5.4% growth in 2026, while Al Rajhi Capital expects GDP growth to come in at 4.6% this year and 4.3% in 2026.

Social Impact Capital confirms its 88.7% stake in Egypt’s CIRA Education

PIF-owned Social Impact Capital (SIC) will soon increase its stake in leading Egyptian private sector education provider CIRA Education to 88.7% from 51.2%. The additional 37.5% stake will officially change hands once the mandatory tender offer (MTO) is settled, the investment vehicle confirmed in a statement (pdf)

The EGP 3.4 bn (SAR 250 mn) transaction is being funded by a recent capital increase by SIC — the vehicle through which the founding El Kalla family holds its stake in Egypt’s leading private-sector education company — which was subscribed to by PIF-owned Afaq Al Elm Investments Company, with the agreement that the proceeds would go towards acquiring up to 100% of CIRA Education.

Afaq Al Elm’s parent company, the Saudi Egyptian Investment Company (SEIC), is a wholly owned PIF subsidiary set up in 2022 to invest in Egypt. Its holdings include sizable stakes in Mopco, Abu Qir Fertilizers, E-finance, and Alexandria Container and Cargo Handling.

Just over 96% of shares responded to Social Impact Capital, with soon-to-be previous shareholders agreeing to sell their stakes — in total amounting to 218.4 mn shares — for EGP 15.5 (SAR 1.16).

Contrary to SIC’s original plan, CIRA Education will remain on the Egyptian Stock Exchange, with an amendment earlier this month by CIRA Education cancelling a clause that stipulates the voluntary delisting of CIRA’s shares within two years of the acquisition’s execution, This meant that the company subsequently lowered its purchase offer to buy up to an additional 38.78% of CIRA’s shares — approximately 226 mn shares by our math — in a move that would bring its holding in the company to up to around the 90% mark.

Further expanding outside Egypt seems to be the plan going forward, with the statement reaffirming how the move is positioning the education services provider for regional expansion. “The collaboration will allow CIRA to forge pioneering partnerships with both local and global institutions to meet the region’s evolving educational needs,” the statement said.

What they said: “This transaction represents a bold leap toward realizing our ambition of reshaping education across the region, marking a pivotal milestone in CIRA’s journey. With the partnership of SIC and SEIC, we are poised to take our vision to the next level — supporting its aspiration to become a regional leader. This partnership reflects our shared goal to contribute to the future of education and empower the next generation. Together, we will continue to innovate, expand and deliver world-class education to students across the region,” said CIRA Education CEO Mohammed El Kalla.

REMEMBER- The transaction was nearly two years in the making, a source with first-hand knowledge of events told EnterpriseAM Egypt last year, but it took the float of the EGP this spring and CIRA’s clear ambition to become a regional player in education to bring it home. PIF is known to be exceptionally rigorous in its investment decision-making process, employing top advisors to make certain that it invests only in companies with clear growth prospects that fit the fund’s mandate to grow local and regional champions.

Advisors: Rothschild & Co is advising PIF, with Allen & Overy and Matouk Bassiouny doing legal duties. Our friends at EFG Hermes are advising the El Kalla family, while White & Case is legal counsel.

Capital market brokerages to see greater flexibility under new amendments

Brokerage firms in the Kingdom will no longer be subject to a fixed minimum capital requirement, providing greater flexibility in their legal structure, under the Capital Market Authority’s (CMA) fresh draft amendments to the Capital Market Law (pdf). The proposed amendments will be up for public consultation on Istitlaa until Thursday, 20 February.

The pitch: The proposed amendments grant the CMA greater flexibility in setting legal structures and capital requirements, aligning Saudi regulations with international best practices. By removing rigid entry barriers, these changes aim to attract more market participants, enhance competition, and support the growth of the brokerage and custody sectors.

What’s new? Executive regulations will define the minimum capital requirement, allowing for adjustments based on the nature of services provided, replacing the fixed SAR 50 mn threshold for brokerage firms. Similarly, the legal structure of brokerages will be determined by the regulations, broadening market participation beyond the current joint-stock company requirement.

Saudia and King Abdulaziz International Airport report lowest complaint rates in December -Gaca

Air carrier complaints dropped 17.9% y-o-y in December 2024 to around 1.1k, down from more than 1.3k in the same period last year, according to our calculations based on a report from the General Authority of Civil Aviation (Gaca). Meanwhile, airport complaints declined 47.4% y-o-y in December to 80.

Saudia Airlines had the lowest rate of complaints per 100k passengers in December, with 20 complaints — compared to last year’s 61 — and a 99% on-time resolution rate. Flynas followed with 21 complaints per 100k passengers, down from 42 last year, and a 100% on-time resolution rate. Flyadeal reported the highest complaints ratio, with 24 complaints per 100k passengers — although a notable improvement from last year’s 65.

For international airports handling over 6 mn passengers annually, King Abdulaziz International Airport and Prince Mohammed International Airport had the lowest complaint rate per 100k passengers, scoring 0.4, while King Khaled International Airport and King Fahad International Airport reported one complaint per 100k passengers. Prince Mohammed International Airport had the lowest actual number of complaints during December, with only 5 complaints.

For international airports handling less than 6 mn passengers annually, Prince Sultan International Airport had the lowest complaint rate, with one complaint per 100k passengers. Al Qaisumah Airport recorded the highest rate, with 8 complaints per 100k passengers.

Near perfect resolution: Most airports maintained a 100% on-time compliant resolution rate, with the only exceptions being Taif International Airport (83%), and King Abdulaziz International Airport (96%).

Laundry booking app Wilow wraps up pre-seed funding round

Homegrown laundry booking startup Wilow has raised an undisclosed sum in a pre-seed funding round led by an undisclosed group of angel investors, according to a press release.

Where the money is going: The company plans to use the funding to expand into new regions and improve its digital infrastructure.

About the app: Wilow (Google Play | App Store), was founded in September 2024 by Wejdan Al Otaibi (LinkedIn) and Mohammed Almarri (LinkedIn). The laundry booking mobile app allows users to schedule pickups and deliveries and offers weekly and monthly subscription plans.

Cabinet approves policy to eliminate forced labor

The council of ministers signed off on the National Policy to Eliminate Forced Labor, according to state news agency SPA. The policy looks to promote decent working conditions and provide non-discriminatory, rights-based support for victims while increasing coordination across concerned government entities, SPA reported separately citing a statement by HR Minister Ahmed bin Suleiman Al Rajhi. The specifics of the policy — which comes as part of Saudi Arabia’s cooperation with the International Labor Organization and International Organization for Migration — were not disclosed.

Also getting the green light at cabinet’s weekly meeting yesterday:

A decision amending safe distances around gas stations and the use of adjacent lands
An MoU for cooperation in Islamic affairs with Tajikistan
An MoU for collaboration in radio and television with Bahrain
An MoU on intellectual property with Kyrgyzstan

Aldrees’ net income was up 29.1% y-o-y 4Q 2024

Tadawul-listed Aldrees Petroleum’s net income rose 29.1% y-o-y to SAR 93.6 mn in 4Q 2024, driven by increased sales in its petrol and transport division and healthier JV investment returns, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. Meanwhile, revenues grew 32.8% to SAR 5.2 bn, on the back of the company setting up more operating stations and improving transportation rates.

In 2024, Aldrees’ bottomline increased 20.4% y-o-y to SAR 338 mn, while its topline rose 30% to SAR 19.3 bn.

ALSO- Aldrees will distribute SAR 150 mn in dividends at SAR 1.5 apiece for FY 2024, according to a separate filing. The distribution date is yet to be disclosed.

PIF’s wager on the first US and EU-listed Saudi bonds ETF

The Public Investment Fund (PIF)’s USD 200 mn wager on what’s believed to be the first Saudi bonds ETF listed in European and US markets, got ink from the Financial Times. PIF invested USD 200 mn in the SPDR JPMorgan Saudi Arabia Aggregate Bond Ucits ETF — which launched in December — as a seed investor earlier this month. The move comes in a bid to push the ETF beyond the minimum size threshold for many investors, while also upping credibility and attracting interest, Morningstar principal Kenneth Lamont told the salmon-colored paper.

Lamont however pointed to Kuwait’s 2019 ETF flop — which fizzled out due to insufficient appetite— as a cautionary tale, while also warning that the ETF’s success will largely hinge on the strength of the investment case for Saudi debt.

Saudi Exim inks USD 15 mn credit line agreement with Pakistan’s Bank Al Falah

DEBT WATCH-

Saudi Export-Import Bank (Saudi Exim) signed a USD 15 mn credit line agreement with Pakistani private lender Bank Al Falah to support Saudi non-oil exports to the South Asian country, according to a post on X.

TOURISM-

A rural tourism initiative coming to Taif tomorrow: The Sustainable Agricultural Rural Development Program (Saudi Reef) will roll out an initiative on Wednesday to promote rural tourism in Taif, state news agency SPA reports. The initiative will offer interactive activities and sessions on traditional farming practices. It will also feature 22 booths showcasing roses, aromatic plants, and handicrafts, among others.

HEALTHCARE-

Scientific andMedical Equipment House was awarded a SAR 105.1 mn contract by Riyadh’s First Health Cluster to maintain and repair medical equipment at several hospitals affiliated with the cluster, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The five-year contract, which kicks in 2Q 2025, covers King Salman Hospital, Al-Iman Hospital, Imam Abdulrahman Al-Faisal Hospital, Convalescent Hospital, and the Dental Complexes.

MANUFACTURING-

UAE-based The Marine Barrier Company (Ecocoast) opened a new factory in Yanbu Industrial City, according to a press release. The facility, located along the Red Sea coast, will produce a variety of marine barriers and offer turnkey marine solutions and 24/7 operational support. The facility, currently operational, will officially see a grand opening next month.

MINING-

Six local and global mining companies qualified for the government’s Exploration Enablement Program (EEP), according to a post on X from the Industry and Mineral Resources Ministry. The qualified companies are homegrown Ajlan & Bros Holding, Gold and Minerals Company (GMCO), Amak Mining Company, and Ma'aden, along with Jersey-based Royal Road Minerals, and UK-based EV Metals Group (EVM ).

TRADE-

Al Jouf Cement to export its products to Syria: Al Jouf Cement Company and Mohammed Shahi Al Ruwaili Contracting inked a SAR 38 mn contract to export cement and clinker goods to Mohammed Shahi Al Ruwaili Contracting, which will then export the products to Syria, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The agreement will go into effect from 2 February 2025 until 28 February, 2026.

The Kingdom has been pressing the west to ease sanctions on Syria to boost reconstruction efforts, arguing that “sanctions will hinder the aspirations of the Syrian people to achieve development,” Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said last week, according to Reuters.

Gender gap in VC funding widens as AI companies dominate

AI is crowding out female founders: Startups with at least one female founder accounted for just 21.7% of combined value of VC investments in the US throughout 2024 — the lowest rate since 2017 — as VC funds shift their focus to AI startups, according to Pitchbook. Last year’s reversal threatens to roll back some of the gains seen in terms of female representation over the past few years.

By the numbers: Female-founded startups collectively raised USD 45.3 bn in 2024, up almost 12% y-o-y. However, Anthropic — co-founded by Daniela Amodei — accounted for USD 9.2 bn of this total. Excluding Anthropic, funding for female-founded startups drops to USD 36.1 bn, out of combined value of investments at USD 209 bn. Anthropic barely makes the cut, as Amodei is the only female among seven co-founders.

Early-stage startup funding also saw a decline: Out of more than 3.1k first financings in 2024, only 20.5% involved a female co-founder, down from 26.5% in 2020. This is particularly concerning as early-stage funding is historically more equitable and has a higher number of female investors, according to Pitchbook.

Funds targeting female founders are also “scaling back size or struggling,” further narrowing prospects for female-led startups, GP at The Artemis Fund Diana Murakhovskaya said. The closure of global nonprofit Girls in Tech after 17 years in business, and the legal block enforced on US-based Fearless Fund’s grants for Black female-owned businesses, are some of the most recent indications of dwindling resources for female entrepreneurs.

Bias is bad for everyone: Lack of diversity in VC decision-making teams leads to “market blind spots” and missed prospects, Pitchbook argues. The imbalance also risks embedding systemic gender inequities into AI systems, as they will be developed mainly by male-founded ventures.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mixed this morning, as investors analyze Trump’s comments on China tariffs starting February. Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.5%, while Hang Seng (Hong Kong) declined 1.4%, and Shanghai Composite declined 1.0%. Wall Street futures are in the green after strong gains for the S&P 500 in the first trading day after Trump’s inauguration.

TASI	12,370	-0.1% (YTD: +2.8%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,549	-0.2% (YTD: +2.6%)
NomuC	31,318	0.0% (YTD: -0.5%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	5.0% repo	4.5% reverse repo
EGX30	29,827	+0.7% (YTD: +0.3%)
ADX	9,517	+0.1% (YTD: +1.0%)
DFM	5,220	+0.5% (YTD: +1.2%)
S&P 500	6049	+0.9% (YTD: +2.9%)
FTSE 100	8,548	+0.3% (YTD: +4.6%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,166	0.0% (YTD: +5.5%)
Brent crude	USD 79.51	-0.8%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.78	-4.4%
Gold	USD 2,743.01	+1.3%
BTC	USD 106,465.40	+3.8% (YTD: +13.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.1% yesterday on turnover of SAR 6.9 bn. The index is up 2.8% YTD.

In the green: Rasan (+10.0%), Saudi Cable (+10.0%) and Walaa (+6.2%).

In the red: Awca Power (-3.5%), Americana (-3.1%) and Almajed Oud (-3.0%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC was unchanged yesterday on turnover of SAR 55.3 mn. The index is down 0.5% YTD.

In the green: Naas Petrol (+7.8%), AlRasheed (+6.9%) and AlBabtain Food (+4.3%).

In the red: Arabica Star (-4.8%), Naba AlSaha (-4.5%) and Fesh Fash (-4.3%)

Foreign Minister to head to Lebanon, eyeing closer ties with Aoun

Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said he plans to visit Beirut this week, while also expressing cautious optimism for greater stability in Lebanon following the election of President Joseph Aoun and the selection of PM-designate Nawaf Salam, Al Arabiya reports citing statements by the top diplomat at Davos. Aoun’s accession points to the declining influence of Hezbollah on the Lebanese stage, with the Iranian-backed paramilitary having stood at odds with Saudi interests.

What they said: “We will need to see a commitment to a Lebanon that is looking to the future, not to the past, in order for us to raise our engagement,” Farhan said.

Positive tidings? A “last-minute push” by the Kingdom earlier this month was the deciding factor in Aoun’s pick as Lebanon’s new president, according to CNN. Amid greater engagement by Saudi Arabia in Lebanon, Prince Alwaleed bin Talal’s Kingdom Holding is taking on the reconstruction of Beirut's Four Seasons Hotel, aiming to reopen it by 1Q 2026.

CALENDAR

JANUARY

21-23 January (Tuesday-Thursday): The International Exhibition for Material Handling, Equipment, Warehouse Supplies, Forklifts & Heavy Equipment, Riyadh International Exhibition Center.

21-23 January (Tuesday-Thursday): Saudi International Exhibition for E-Marketing and E-Commerce, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center.

24-25 January (Friday-Saturday): UIM E1 World Championship Jeddah, Jeddah.

25 January (Saturday): The opening of the 2025 Islamic Arts Biennale, Western Hajj Terminal of King Abdulaziz International Airport, Jeddah

27-29 January (Monday-Wednesday): Real Estate Future Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

27-29 January (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Franchise Expo, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center.

28-29 January (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

28-29 January (Tuesday-Wednesday): Sustainability Forum Middle East, Riyadh.

29-30 January (Wednesday-Thursday): Global Labor Market Conference, Riyadh.

31 January (Friday): Deadline for businesses to update their registered customs items.

1Q: BinDawood Holding expected to close 100% acquisition of Zahrat Al Rawdah Pharma

1Q: Roshn expected to raise SAR 2.6 bn from international bank

FEBRUARY

1 February (Saturday): UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Imavov, The Venue, Riyadh.

2 February (Sunday): Flyadeal launches direct flights to Karachi, Pakistan, departing from Riyadh and Jeddah twice a week.

3-5 February (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi International Marine Exhibition (SIMEC), Riyadh.

4-5 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): The RLC Global Forum, Riyadh.

4-5 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Markets & ESG Finance, Hilton Riyadh Hotel & Residences.

6 February (Thursday): Property registration deadline for owners in several districts of seven Qassim cities.

6-8 February (Thursday-Saturday): LIV Golf season opener, Riyadh Golf Club, Riyadh.

8 February (Saturday): Sotheby’s first auction in the Kingdom, Diriyah.

9-12 February (Sunday-Wednesday): LEAP Tech Conference, Malham, Riyadh.

9-12 February (Sunday-Wednesday): DeepFest by Leap, Riyadh.

10-12 February (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Travel Market, Riyadh International Exhibition Center.

10-13 February (Monday-Thursday): Leap 2025, the Kingdom’s premier tech investment conference.

14-15 February (Friday-Saturday): Formula E, Diriyah.

15-18 February (Saturday-Tuesday): Week one of Big 5 Construct Saudi, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center.

16-17 February (Sunday-Monday): AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, AlUla.

18 February (Tuesday): The Capital Markets Forum, KAFD Conference Centre, Riyadh.

19-20 February (Wednesday-Thursday): The Capital Markets Forum, The Four Seasons, Riyadh.

19 February (Wednesday): Derayah REIT dividend distribution.

19-21 February (Wednesday-Friday): Saudi Media Forum, Riyadh.

21-22 February (Friday-Saturday): The Saudi Cup, Riyadh.

22 February (Saturday): Founding Day.

22 February (Saturday): Dazn Boxing event: Beterbiev vs Bivol II, Riyadh.

23-27 February (Sunday-Thursday): Riyadh International Disputes Week, Hilton Riyadh Hotel Granada.

24-25 February (Monday-Tuesday): The Riyadh International Humanitarian Forum, Riyadh.

24-27 February (Monday-Thursday): Week two of Big 5 Construct Saudi, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center.

MARCH

1-30 March: Ramadan (TBC).

18-19 March (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

31 March- 3 April (Monday-Thursday): Eid Al Fitr.

APRIL

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh.

3-20 April (Thursday-Sunday): AFC Asian U17 Cup.

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah, Riyadh.

18-20 April (Friday-Sunday): Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, Jeddah,

21-24 April (Monday-Thursday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh.

22-23 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): AAM Middle East, Riyadh.

25 April- 4 May (Friday-Sunday): AFC Champions League Elite Finals

MAY

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

12-15 May (Monday-Thursday): Saudi Smart Manufacturing, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-14 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global EV & Mobility Technology Forum, The Arena, Riyadh.

23 May (Friday): Guns N’ Roses Show, Riyadh.

31 May-5 June (Saturday-Thursday): Hajj.

JUNE

6-9 June ( Friday-Monday): Eid Al Adha.

17-18 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

26 June (Thursday): 2024-2025 academic year ends.

JULY

31 July (Thursday): Deadline for companies with SAR 2.5 mn or more in 2022/2023 revenues to integrate e-invoicing solutions with Fatoora.

29-30 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

AUGUST

5-17 August (Tuesday-Sunday): Fiba Asian Cup.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Money 20/20 Middle East, Riyadh.

17-18 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

23 September (Tuesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

3-9 November (Monday- Sunday): WTA Tour Finals.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday) The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh Front Convention & Exhibition Centre, Riyadh.

27-30 November (Thursday-Sunday): The World Rally Championship (WRC), Jeddah.

DECEMBER

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): International Conference on Nuclear Emergencies, Riyadh.

December: The Fortune Global Forum 2025, Riyadh.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

2026

UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

2027

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.

Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

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