Good morning. EnterpriseAM Saudi is back in your inbox as we enter the last workweek of Ramadan, before welcoming back Eid Fitr (and the dearly-missed morning coffee).

In this calm morning’s news well: We delve into media reports on Aramco’s expansion into Peru’s fuel market, and unpack our construction sector’s performance in 2024 as well as forecasts for this year, according to latest data from JLL.

ALSO- Fund managers ready to boost investments in Saudi stocks, per SNB Capital survey results. Meanwhile, Aramco and Siemens Energy launch the Kingdom’s first Direct Air Capture test unit, and latest developments in Turkey as the arrest of main Erdogan challenger shakes the TRY, Borsa Istanbul 100. Let’s dive in.

🕡 When do we eat? Maghrib is at 6:05pm today in Riyadh. You’ll have until fajr prayers at 4:35am tomorrow to enjoy suhoor.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Talks on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire will return to Jeddah today, US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Wittkoff told Fox News in an interview (watch, runtime: 6:18) on Tuesday. The meeting will also cover shipping safety and involve military personnel as well as experts in port and civil infrastructure, Interfax reported on Wednesday, citing a press conference by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Presidential Palace in Helsinki.

BUT- Direct talks remain off the table: Zelenskiy said later that Ukraine will not sit down with Russia directly, and will instead rely on US-led “shuttle diplomacy,” to relay messages between the two sides, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing his speech in Norway. Kyiv is mapping out vital infrastructure assets in the energy, rail, and port sectors that could be safeguarded under a partial ceasefire arrangement.

IN CONTEXT- The Kingdom hosted talks between top US and Ukrainian officials in Riyadh earlier this month, after which Washington resumed military aid to Kyiv in exchange for agreeing to a unilateral 30-day ceasefire.

WEATHER- Riyadh is seeing cloudy skies today, while Makkah will be partly cloudy. Madinah is set for breezy winds.

• Riyadh: 23°C daytime / 17°C overnight
• Makkah: 30°C daytime / 15°C overnight
• Madinah: 27°C daytime / 12°C overnight

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

Umm Al-Qura for Development and Reconstruction will ring the bell on the main market Tadawul tomorrow, the stock exchange announced. The company’s shares are allowed to fluctuate within a ±30% band on the first three days of trading, with a static fluctuation band of ±10%. Starting from the fourth day, shares will be allowed to trade at ±10% as circuit breakers take effect, and the static fluctuation limit will be removed.

ICYMI- PIF-backed Umm Al Qura’s institutional offering was 241x oversubscribed, with total orders hitting SAR 473 bn, pushing the firm to price its IPO at SAR 15 apiece — the top of its indicative price range. This gives the firm an estimated market cap of SAR 21 bn at the time of listing.

PSAs-

Companies must complete all commercial registration and trade names related transactions before Thursday, 27 March, the Commerce Ministry said in a post on X. The agency plans a week-long freeze on services until Thursday, 3 April, in preparation for the launch of the new Trade Names law.

Suspended services during that period will include modifications to commercial registries, amendment of contracts, reservation of trade names, and establishment of companies. During this period, only commercial reports, licenses for discounts, commercial franchise services, and commercial statements will be available.

BACKGROUND- The new Trade Names Law introduces a ban on duplicated trade names for businesses, even if they operate in different sectors or on different commercial activities. Businesses must confirm their details electronically each year, under the new law, and penalties are replaced with a system of “warnings and notices”.

Companies with annual supplies exceeding SAR 40 mn have until 31 March to submit their tax returns for February 2025 via Zatca’s website or mobile app, according to a statement issued by the authority. Failure to meet the deadline will result in penalties ranging from 5% to 25% of the due tax.

ALSO- The next round of e-invoicing kicks off: Companies that recorded more than SAR 1 mn in revenues subject to VAT in 2022, 2023, or 2024 will gradually integrate their e-invoicing solutions with Zatca’s Fatoora platform by 31 December 2025, according to a separate statement. The phase is the latest of an e-invoicing rollout that began in late 2021.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Saudi, Emirati investors eyes minority stake in Arizona mine: PIF-backed Manara Minerals has been in talks since November to buy up to 30% of Canadian mining firm Hudbay Minerals ’ flagship Copper World project in Arizona within six months, Hudbay Minerals’ CEO Peter Kukielski told Bloomberg on Thursday. Other Saudi, Emirati investors and Japanese trading houses are also vying for the stake, Kukielski said.

The mine: The Copper World project mine spans over 257km with proven reserves of 319.4 mn tons as of 1 January 2024, according to Hudbay’s website. It is expected to produce 85k tons per year through its 20-year lifespan, according to Bloomberg.

The Capital Market Authority (CMA) greenlit five IPOs on Thursday:

• Dar Al Majed Real Estate Company will offer a 30% stake (90 mn shares) on the main market;
• Sport Clubs Company will offer a 30% stake (34.3k shares) on the main market;
• National Signage Industrial Company will offer a 20% stake (1.5 mn shares) on the parallel market, Nomu;
• Hamad Mohammed Bin Saedan Real Estate will offer a 15% stake (4.2 mn shares) on Nomu;
• Dome International Investment will offer a 14.53% stake (850k shares) on Nomu.

ALSO- The CMA cleared Investment banking firm TwoAtoms Capital to operate and manage investments in securities after fulfilling all requirements, according to a statement.

Expect visits from government-trained mystery shoppers: The Kingdom rolled out a mystery shopping program to monitor businesses’ compliance with consumer protection regulations, Executive Director of the Consumer Protection Association Ahmed Al Mehliki told Aleqtisadiah in an interview told Aleqtisadiah in an interview yesterday. The findings will be used to assess and classify businesses under efforts to improve overall market transparency and service quality. No further details were disclosed.

MARKET WATCH-

Tadawul’s benchmark index TASI logged modest gains last week, edging up 0.29% to 11.76k points on Thursday, according to weekly market data. Trading was active with SAR 26.5 bn changing hands across 1.14 bn shares and 2.36 mn trades. The index’s market cap remained unchanged on a weekly basis at SAR 9.6 tn.

Bullish: Entaj Foods — which made its debut on Tadawul last week — saw its share price rise 20% to SAR 60, followed by Retal (+13%) and Petro Rabigh (+11.5%).

Bearish: Saudi Paper Manufacturing’s share price posted the steepest decline during the week, falling 12.4%, followed by ACIG (-10.9%) and Cenomi Retail (-8.9%).

DATA POINTS-

The number of Umrah pilgrims rose 31% y-o-y in 4Q 2024 to 7.4 mn, according to data fromGastat (pdf). The quarter saw equal participation from male and female pilgrims, with the 30-39 age group accounting for 30%, while Saudis accounted for 4.5%.

OIL WATCH-

Opec+ plans deeper cuts to offset overproduction: The oil group has set a new plan for seven members to cut oil production beyond agreed limits to make up for previous overproduction, with monthly reductions ranging from 189k to 435k barrels per day (bbl / d) until June 2026, according to a press release from Opec. Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia are set to make the largest compensation cuts, while the Kingdom will make small cuts of 6k to 15k bbl / d over three months. The story also got ink from Reuters.

Unplanned increase: The decision was made following Kazakhstan’s recent rise in production which exceeded its Opec+ quota by 300k bbl / d, driven by Chevron’s expansion at the country’s largest oilfield Tengiz.

REFRESHER- Opec+ agreed to stick to plans to revive supply in April following repeated delays. The group cited “healthy market fundamentals” and a “positive outlook,” but kept the door open for future changes in policy.

SPORTS-

The Green Falcons keep the pace with Australia, both vying for direct qualification to the 2026 FIFA World Cup: Our men’s national football team emerged on top at a home match against China last Thursday — courtesy of a goal by Salem Aldawsari in the 50th minute — while Australia defeated Indonesia five goals to one to remain in second place. These results see the Falcons one point behind the Socceroos and ten points behind group-leaders Japan, both currently holding qualifying spots for the next football world cup with nine points in play.

When and against who do we play next? The next round of fixtures kicks off 25 March. We will face Japan at the Saitama Stadium starting 01:30pm, while Australia and China will meet at Hangzhou Sports Park Stadium half-hour later.

Al Lazeez relinquishes SPL position: The Saudi Pro League (SPL) accepted the resignation of Saad Al Lazeez from the positions of board vice chairman and recruitment program general supervisor, according to a statement. Al Lazeez was “one of the [League’s] most influential executives” since joining in 2021, playing a central role in marquee signings and also helping recalibrate the SPL’s transfer policy towards younger players, writes the Athletic.

***You’re reading EnterpriseAM Saudi, your essential daily roundup of business, economics, and must-read news about Saudi, delivered straight to your inbox. We’re out Sunday through Thursday by 7am Riyadh time.

EnterpriseAM Saudi is available without charge thanks to the generous support of our friends at Tas’heel.

Want to send us a story idea, request coverage, ask for a correction, or otherwise get in touch? Reach out to us on saudi@enterpriseAM.com.

DID YOU KNOW that we also cover Egypt, the UAE, the MENA logistics and climate industries?

Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy of EnterpriseAM Saudi delivered every weekday.
***

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Israel threatens Gaza annexation if hostages remain in captivity: Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz threatens that Israeli forces would begin seizing territory in Gaza, forcing civilians to evacuate more areas, unless Hamas releases remaining hostages. “The more Hamas continues its refusal to release the hostages, the more territory it will lose to Israel,” Katz said on Friday. Hamas said that it is looking into a US proposal to mend the collapsed truce, but declared that any future potential agreements must lead to a permanent end to the war. This comes after Israeli forces restarted ground operations in Gaza following the collapse of a two-month ceasefire. (Bloomberg | New York Times | The Guardian | CNN | BBC | Reuters)

AND- Israel-Hezbollah truce under pressure after cross-border fire: Israel launched multiple airstrikes on Hezbollah-controlled areas in southern Lebanon over the weekend, claiming retaliation for attacks fired from the Lebanese side of the border — strikes that Hezbollah has denied. The Israeli army “struck dozens of Hezbollah rocket launchers and a command center from which Hezbollah terrorists were operating in southern Lebanon,” the IDF said in a post on X. The cross-border escalation marks the most significant breach of the four-month truce between Israel and Hezbollah. (Bloomberg | BBC | AP | Reuters | CNN)

IN OTHER NEWS- Turkish authorities have extended a ban on demonstrations and imposed travel restrictions in and out of Istanbul in a bid to control protests that broke out following the detention of popular opposition figure and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. Imamoglu — widely seen as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s most formidable rival — was taken into custody last week on charges of corruption and terrorism, which he denies. We have more on what the move means for the Turkish market in the news well, below. (Reuters | Bloomberg | New York Times | BBC | AP | CNN)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Mexico’s Saul “Canelo” Alvarez will make his debut in the Kingdom as he faces Cuba’s William Scull on Saturday, 3 May at Riyadh’s ANB Arena for the IBF super middleweight title as part of Riyadh Season. A win for Canelo sets the stage for a potential September Superfight against Terence Crawford in Las Vegas, according to Queensberry.