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Aramco raises USD 4 bn in first debt sale of the year

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: More money for Syria

Good morning, wonderful people. Saudi investments in the region are at the forefront of today’s issue, from new solar plants in Turkey worth USD 2 bn, to Acwa tightening its grip on Kuwait’s grid with a USD 4.1 bn power agreement, to news of a multi-USD bn investment package in Syria set to be announced in a few days’ time.

The big story today: Aramco closed its first debt issuance of the year, raising USD 4 bn to shore up its buffers, maintain dividend payments and power expansion plans. The high orderbook — put at some USD 22 bn — allowed the oil giant to tighten the spreads.

Happening today

WEATHER- Thunderstorms bringing rain and dusty winds are forecast over the Northern Borders, Eastern Region, Riyadh, Qassim, Hail, Madinah, and Makkah, while light rain and fog may form over the highlands of Al-Baha, Asir, and Jazan, as well as parts of Tabuk and the Eastern Region.

  • Riyadh: 25°C high / 17°C low.
  • Jeddah: 30°C high / 24°C low.
  • Makkah: 32°C high / 24°C low.
  • Dammam: 26°C high / 17°C low.

Watch this space

INVESTMENT — A multi-bn-USD Saudi investment package for Syria is set to be announced on Saturday, marking the largest economic commitment to the country since the US lifted sanctions in December, head of the Syrian Investment Authority Talal Al Helali told Reuters on the sidelines of the World Government Summit in Dubai.

Getting serious: The package targets projects in “telecommunications, and real estate, especially in the old towns,” Al Helali said, adding that most of the planned investments will be in ready-to-implement contracts, not non-binding MoUs. The Kingdom might also provide ins. coverage to encourage local companies to enter the Syrian market, an unnamed senior Syrian businessman told the newswire.

.. and a Syrian airline? The package will reportedly include investing in a new private Syrian airline, expected to launch with over a dozen aircraft, two unnamed sources said. Contracts to develop Aleppo International Airport are also in the cards.

Saudi has been a close friend of Syria ever since Assad was toppled in late 2024. The Saudi-Syrian Investment Forum held in July saw SAR 24 bn in agreements signed for investments in real estate, infrastructure, financial, energy, telecommunications, technology, tourism, manufacturing, and trade.


BANKING — Kingdom’s largest lender to tap SRTs? Saudi National Bank (SNB) is exploring “significant risk transfer” (SRT) transactions to unlock capital for more lending, Bloomberg reports, citing sources it said are in the know.

Sound smart: In SRTs, a bank pays a premium to investors to share the risk of a loan portfolio, allowing banks to free regulatory capital without selling loans.

Why? Easy liquidity in Saudi banking is hitting a wall, with a projected loan-to-deposit ratio reaching higher levels in 2026 than the 113% recorded in November. The shift should help sustain funding for mega-projects like Neom and the 2034 World Cup, Bloomberg notes.

Not just an SNB story: Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) is reportedly working with BNP Paribas on its own SRT, while global lenders like Deutsche Bank and HSBC are ramping up their own transactions.


REGULATION — The Real Estate General Authority has published draft amendments(pdf) to the executive regulations of the real estate registration system, aiming to streamline registration procedures and defining legal terms.

Important changes: The amendments abolish the Higher Committee for Real Estate In-Kind Registration. They also set a one-year limit from the date the property is registered for it to gain absolute legal finality, effectively capping ownership disputes.

Data point

56.3 — that’s the seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index for Saudi Arabia in January, marking a third consecutive monthly decline from December’s 57.4 and a six-month low, according to the Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia PMI (pdf). While still comfortably above the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction, it fell just short of the 56.9 long-run average.

The breakdown: Output and new business continued to rise at a robust clip, with 23% of companies reporting growth linked to resilient domestic demand. New orders received a significant boost from growing foreign demand, with export orders rising at their fastest pace since October 2025 due to increased activity from GCC and Asian markets.

Purchases up, jobs down: Companies increased purchases to build inventories and benefited from improved lead times. However, job creation slowed to a 12-month low. Input prices rose due to higher costs for fuel, metals, technology, and wages, prompting firms to lift selling prices at a rate well above the historical average.

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The big story abroad

US downs Iranian drone as negotiations continue: The simmering US-Iran situation saw a minor flare up after US forces shot down an Iranian drone approaching an aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea yesterday. US military officials claim the strike was in self defense, as the drone approached the USS Abraham Lincoln aggressively. Diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran, however, are still ongoing, US President Donald Trump confirmed.

The skirmish rattled oil markets, sending Brent crude up 1.6% to USD 68 a barrel. With markets anticipating escalations, Brent volatility has reached a peak since the last regional conflict.

MEANWHILE, IN MARKET NEWS- Analytics and software stocks fell sharply after Anthropic debuted AI tools that automate legal and analytical work, dragging down tech-heavy Nasdaq by 1.4% and S&P 500 by 0.8%. Analytics heavyweights Gartner and S&P Global saw 21% and 11% drops, respectively. Investors warned that the selloff could spill over to AI hyperscalers, since software companies are among their largest customers.

PLUS- Walmart made history as the first retailer to cross the USD 1 tn valuation mark yesterday, after rising roughly 26% in the past 12 months.

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THE BIG STORY TODAY

Aramco raises USD 4 bn in first debt sale of the year

Saudi Aramco raised USD 4 bnin its first international debt offering of the year, in a four-tranche bond that was heavily oversubscribed by international investors. The oil giant tightened pricing after drawing in over USD 22 bn in orders, a sign of confidence as the company’s free cashflow continues to face pressure from lower oil prices.

This marks the third time the oil giant has tapped the debt markets in nine months, including a USD 3 bn sukuk in September and a USD 5 bn conventional bond in May.

Why it matters

Aramco is shoring up its coffers in a bid to defend base payouts and back growth plans. Total dividends for 2025 are now expected to land around USD 85.4 bn, some 30% y-o-y decline from 2024, as performance-linked dividends are all but scrapped. It also has a massive capex program ahead, after raising its 2030 gas production capacity growth target in November to some 80% above 2021 levels.

The balance sheet allows it (for now): Net debt dipped by the end of the quarter for the first time since 2Q 2023, while the gearing ratio — an indicator of borrowing levels — slightly eased to 6.3%, allowing the company ample room to continue borrowing. Free cashflow also recovered nicely in 3Q, covering the over USD 21 bn dividends slated for the quarter, albeit with a thin USD 2.2 bn margin that doesn’t offer much breathing room.

It’s not just debt: Aramco has also been pulling other levers, including leaning on creative financing like last year’s USD 11 bn leaseback deal for its Jafurah gas facilities with BlackRock-backed GIP. The company is also cutting costs and reportedly looking to divest gas plants in a USD 4 bn agreement.

About the bond

The offering comprised four tranches across three, five, 10, and 30-year maturities. The strength of the order book allowed Aramco to significantly tighten spreads, with the 3-year tranche priced at just 60 bps over US Treasuries (down from 100 bps guidance), while the 30-year landed at 130 bps.

ADVISORS- Our friends at HSBC are acting as active joint bookrunners alongside Citi, Goldman Sachs International, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Bank of China, BofA Securities, BSF Capital, Emirates NBD Capital, First Abu Dhabi Bank, Mizuho, MUFG, Natixis, Riyad Capital, SMBC, and Standard Chartered are passive joint bookrunners.

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RENEWABLES

Saudi Arabia will invest USD 2 bn to set up solar farms in Turkey

The Kingdom will establish two solar farms in Turkey at an investment cost of USD 2 bn, under an agreement inked during Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Saudi Arabia. The two farms will add a combined 2 GW of capacity, powering over 2 mn households.

The details: The two solar projects will be set up in the regions of Sivas and Karaman. At a later stage, Saudi companies will add more solar and wind capacity to bring their total capacity in Turkey to 5 GW — the additional 3 GW will be “developed in accordance with the frameworks agreed upon by both parties.”

Buyer secured. A Turkish state-owned company will ink a multi-decade power-purchase-agreement securing the energy generated.

Who’s paying? The projects will be funded using external sources, with loans provided by international financial institutions, Turkey’s Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on X.

Expect to see more cooperation between the two nations, with Erdogan telling bin Salman that Turkey wants to take Saudi-Turkish ties to a higher level in sectors including renewable energy and defence.

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ENERGY

Acwa-led consortium seals USD 4.1 bn ECWPA in Kuwait

Acwa tightens grip on Kuwait’s power sector: An Acwa Power-led consortium signed a USD 4.1 bn energy conversion and water purchase agreement (ECWPA) with Kuwait’s Electricity Ministry for the second and third phases of Kuwait’s Az-Zour North project, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The signing follows initial contracts inked in August.

Who’s in? The 25-year build-operate-transfer agreement was struck between Kuwait’s Electricity, Water, and Renewables Ministry and the Gulf Alliance for Power and Water — a JV of Acwa, the Kuwait Authority for Partnership Projects (Kapp) and the Gulf Investment Corporation. Acwa’s effective stake in the project is 24%.

About the project: The independent water and power project is among Kuwait’s largest, with 2.7 GW of combined-cycle gas turbines and a seawater reverse osmosis desalination unit producing around 545.5k cubic meters per day. It will run on a mix of liquefied and high-pressure natural gas.

Acwa is moving swiftly

Just weeks ago, Acwa finalized the acquisition of Engie’s assets in the region, buying into the 1.5 GW Az-Zour North Phase 1 and taking a 45% stake in Bahrain’s 940 MW Al Ezzel and 1.22 GW Al Dur plants. Securing Phases 2 and 3 ensures a significant percentage of Kuwait’s privatized power and water capacity runs through Acwa’s books.

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EARNINGS WATCH

Go Telecom’s bottomline goes up in 3Q

Etihad GoTelecom’s net income rose 27.3% y-o-y to SAR 70 mn in 3Q FY 2025-26, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Meanwhile, its revenue increased 28% y-o-y to SAR 489 mn over the same period, driven by a 50% rise in wholesale and B2C segments, an 8% growth in B2B, and contributions from subsidiary Ejad Technology.

On a 9M basis, the company’s bottom line saw a 22.4% y-o-y climb to SAR 197 mn and its top line jumped 34.3% y-o-y to SAR 1.4 bn.

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MOVES

Al Jouf Cement appoints new CEO

Al Jouf Cement tapped Bakr Sindi (LinkedIn) as its CEO, the cement manufacturer said in a disclosure to Tadawul yesterday. Sindi has over 20 years of experience in governance and strategic planning — he has been the managing director of Al Jouf since January. Sindi is replacing Samir Mohammed Al Rehaili who was appointed last year.

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ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Mersal Media Capital lands SAR 5 to back digital media growth

Mersal Media Capital bags SAR 5 mn in first funding

Homegrown media investment company Mersal Media Capital (MMC) raised SAR 5 mn in its first funding round, led by an unnamed private investment fund, Jawlah reports. The company will use the funds to support its growth, strengthen operations, and build strategic partnerships in media asset development.

About MMC: Founded by Abdulwahed Alhumaid (LinkedIn) and Anas Al Humaid, MMC focuses on developing investments in digital media, targeting scalable and growth-ready assets, while adopting specialized operational models.

Zahrat Al Waha renews outstanding debt with Saudi Investment Bank

Tadawul-listed plastic-maker Zahrat Al Waha has renewed its SAR 120 mn sharia-compliant credit facility agreement with Saudi Investment Bank, it said in a filing to Tadawul. The company will use the funds to import raw materials and finance public investments.

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PLANET FINANCE

MSCI threatens Indonesia with frontier status over “deep-fried stocks”

The Indonesian stock market is facing a reckoning: Index provider MSCI warns of a potential downgrade to the ASEAN country’s status unless reforms are made by May, the Financial Times reports. The move comes amid growing alarm over the country’s “deep-fried stocks” — where concentrated ownership and opaque shareholding structures fuel extreme volatility and raise concerns about coordinated trading that distorts price formation.

The MSCI announcement triggered an immediate crisis in Jakarta, wiping more than USD 80 bn off the Jakarta Composite Index last week, followed by an additional 4.5% drop on Monday. The sell-off has alarmed regulators, who fear a downgrade could trigger bns of USD in capital outflows. Indonesia’s financial regulator and stock exchange chiefs have since resigned.

Just a blip, says the FinMin: Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa characterized the sell-off as a “temporary shock,” maintaining that the country’s economic fundamentals remain strong despite the market volatility.

Why it matters

The “emerging-market” classification, used by MSCI and FTSE Russell, ranks countries between frontier and developed markets, signaling investability while acknowledging some volatility. Indonesia’s status as an emerging market has attracted steady foreign investment, building Southeast Asia’s largest equity market. A downgrade to frontier could trigger up to USD 13 bn in forced outflows, weaken the IDR, raise borrowing costs, and slow growth and job creation, Goldman Sachs told Bloomberg.

Indonesia’s pain points-

The “deep-fried” problem: Investors have long flagged a disconnect between Indonesia’s blue-chip stocks and a group of closely-held companies owned by powerful tycoons. These “deep-fried” stocks often have restricted free floats — the portion of shares available to the public — allowing prices to be easily manipulated or driven to surges on thin trading. Last year, the MSCI Indonesia index fell 3.6%, while the Jakarta Composite rose 20.7%, the widest gap on record.

IN CONTEXT- MSCI’s warning also lands amid broader investor unease over President Prabowo Subianto’s fiscal stance and institutional independence. Steps seen as weakening central bank autonomy and loosening long-standing fiscal discipline have raised concerns over inflation, currency stability, and governance standards.

Don’t hold your breath: A total downgrade to frontier status is unlikely given the sheer size of the Indonesian economy, James Johnstone, co-head of emerging and frontier markets at investment manager Redwheel, told the salmon-colored paper. Still, the MSCI threat is seen as a “bold and dramatic” catalyst for reform, piling pressure on regulators to address long-standing governance issues and boost transparency and liquidity ahead of the May deadline to avoid a major outflow of international capital, he added.

It seems to be working

Regulators have moved to contain the fallout, announcing plans to double the minimum free-float requirement to 15% to improve liquidity and curb volatility, though this is still well below the 25% standard seen in regional peers like India and Hong Kong. MSCI said it will continue engaging with Indonesian authorities and market participants before deciding on next steps.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are mixed this morning in early trading as investors react to the tech-led selloff on Wall Street. Markets are also closely following the results of Japan’s Lower House election, which are also expected to significantly impact the JPY.

TASI

11,329

+0.1% (YTD: +8.0%)

MSCI Tadawul 30

1,527

+0.2% (YTD: +10.1%)

NomuC

24,044

+0.1% (YTD: +3.2%)

USD : SAR (SAMA)

USD 3.75 Sell

USD 3.75 Buy

Interest rates

4.25% repo

3.75% reverse repo

EGX30

48,978

+2.9% (YTD: +17.1%)

ADX

10,473

+1.3% (YTD: +4.8%)

DFM

6,614

+0.6% (YTD: +9.4%)

S&P 500

6,918

-0.8% (YTD: +1.1%)

FTSE 100

10,315

-0.3% (YTD: +3.9%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,995

-0.2% (YTD: +3.5%)

Brent crude

USD 67.85

+2.3%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.31

+2.3%

Gold

USD 4,935

+6.1%

BTC

USD 76,804

-2.2% (YTD: -12.4%)

Sukuk/bond market index

916.62

-0.1% (YTD: -0.3%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

151.39

-0.1% (YTD: -0.3%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

USD 18.29

+11.9% (YTD: +8.4%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.1% yesterday on turnover of SAR 5.1 bn. The index is up 8.0% YTD.

In the green: Chemical (+8.0%), Go Telecom (+6.8%) and Cherry (+5.8%).

In the red: Elm (-3.4%), KEC (-2.7%) and Jazira Takaful (-2.5%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.1% yesterday on turnover of SAR 28.7 mn. The index is up 3.2% YTD.

In the green: WSM (+6.9%), Taqat (+5.3%) and Jamjoom Fashion (+4.7%).

In the red: Sign World (-9.9%), Knowledge Tower (-7.1%) and Munawla (-6.6%).


FEBRUARY

2-4 February (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Media Forum, Riyadh.

2-4 February (Monday-Wednesday): Women Leaders Summit and Awards KSA, Riyadh.

9-10 February (Monday-Tuesday): Private Sector Forum 2026, Riyadh.

2-13 February (Monday-Friday): 2026 Asian Road Cycling Championship and Paralympic Cycling, Qassim.

3-4 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): RLC Global Forum Annual Meeting, Riyadh.

4 February (Wednesday): Michelin Guide’s Restaurant Celebration, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

5 February (Thursday): Deadline to submit bids for EPC contract for Ras Mohaisen-Baha-Makkah Independent Water Transmission System.

5-7 February (Thursday-Saturday): LIV Golf 2026 season opener, Riyadh Golf Club, Riyadh.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh.

8-9 February (Sunday-Monday): AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (ACEME), Maraya Hall, AlUla.

9-10 February (Monday-Tuesday): Global Games Show Riyadh 2026, Malf Hall, Riyadh.

9-14 February (Monday-Saturday): Asian Racing Conference, Crowne Plaza Riyadh RDC Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

11 February (Wednesday) Digital Transformation Summit Saudi Arabia (DTS), Riyadh.

11-14 February (Wednesday-Saturday): JeddaDerm, Jeddah.

13-14 February (Friday-Saturday): Jeddah E-Prix 2026, Jeddah.

15-17 February (Sunday-Tuesday): The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh Front & Exhibition Center.

16 February (Monday): King Salman Stadium design-and-build contract prequalification submission deadline.

16 February (Monday): First day of Ramadan (TBC).

22 February (Sunday): Founding Day.

26 February (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for 142.8k properties across 104 neighborhoods in Hail.

MARCH

12 March (Thursday): Deadline for real estate registration for 253.2k properties in 499 neighborhoods across Riyadh, Qassim, Makkah, and Hail.

18-23 March (Tuesday-Monday): Eid Al-Fitr holiday (TBC).

21 March (Saturday): Fanatics Flag Football Classic, Kingdom Arena, Riyadh.

31 March (Tuesday): Zatca’s 23rd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

APRIL

6 April (Monday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

6-7 April (Monday-Tuesday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-16 April (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center – Malham.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21 April (Tuesday): GC Summit Saudi Arabia 2026, Saudi Arabia.

22-23 April (Wednesday-Thursday): The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah.

27-29 April (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

MAY

3-5 May (Sunday-Tuesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh.

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

5-6 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh.

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid al-Adha holiday.

JUNE

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

  • 2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production in 2026.
  • November: UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.
  • November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh.
  • The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.
  • 6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

  • The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.
  • The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.
  • Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

  • The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.
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