Aramco pulls in USD 20 bn in bond orders + Alrajhi closes USD 1 bn issuance

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Gov’t to adopt flexibility in pursuing goals, Crown Prince says in Shura speech

Good morning. The Kingdom’s borrowing extravaganza is leading this morning’s busy news well, with updates on USD-denominated issuances from Aramco, Alrajhi Bank and Bank AlJazira. Real estate IPOs are also taking center stage, as Almajdiah stumbled on its first day of trading, while Hamad Mohammed Bin Saedan’s Nomu offering was over 110% covered.

ALSO- Saudi’s growth story was in focus at EFG Hermes London conference this week, and our weekly My Morning Routine section features work and life insights from Ahmed Al Mashhadi, founder and CEO of Veem Solutions.

BUT FIRST- Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman delivered the annual royal address to the Shura Council, outlining the Kingdom’s economic achievements and affirming positions on key regional issues.

Non-oil activities now constitute 56% of the gross domestic product (GDP), which contributed to 660 international companies choosing Saudi Arabia for their regional headquarters, a figure that exceeds the target set for 2030, the Crown Prince said. Robust infrastructure and advanced technological services helped attract companies to the Kingdom, while recent agreements in AI are also set to establish Saudi Arabia as a global center for AI in the coming years, he added.

Localization of defense industries also saw significant progress, increasing to over 19%. Efforts continue to elevate defense capabilities to the highest international standards in collaboration with strategic partners, the Crown Prince added.

Regarding the real estate market, Bin Salman acknowledged that residential property prices in some areas have risen to "unacceptable levels." The government is working on policies to rebalance the sector, aiming to lower costs, encourage investment, and provide suitable housing options for citizens, he said.

The government will adopt flexibility in pursuing its goals. "We will not hesitate to cancel or make any radical amendment to any programs or targets if it becomes clear to us that the public interest requires it,” he added.

Talking about foreign policy, the Crown Prince condemned "the aggressions of the Israeli occupation authority in the region," specifically the "brutal aggression against the brotherly state of Qatar." He also condemned attacks, forced displacement, and starvation tactics targeting Palestinians in Gaza, and argued the Arab Peace Initiative is a viable path to a Palestinian state.

WEATHER- Heavy rain still persists over Makkah, Asir, Jazan, and Al Baha, along with moderate to light showers over Najran. Riyadh will see temperatures peak at 42°C before cooling down to 30°C today, while Jeddah’s mercury will go as high as 41°C before cooling down to 32°C, and Makkah will see a 41°C high and 32°C low.

PSAs-

Businesses subject to excise tax must submit their July and August tax returns by Monday, 15 September, via Zatca’s website, the authority said in a statement yesterday. Late submissions will face a 5% penalty for every 30 days of delay.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Financing for Blackrock’s Jafurah investment locked in? A consortium led by BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) has arranged a financing package of nearly USD 10 bn to fund its investment in Saudi Aramco’s Jafurah natural gas project infrastructure, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter.

The details: The package includes a seven-year loan facility with a refinancing option and a separate 19-year loan. Major US and Japanese banks are taking part, including Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Mizuho Financial Group, and Sumitomo Mitsui, the newswire’s sources said.

IN CONTEXT- The financing supports a USD 11 bn lease and leaseback agreement signed la st month between GIP’s consortium and Aramco, creating the Jafurah Midstream Gas Company (JMGC) joint venture in which Aramco holds 51% and the consortium 49% to manage the USD 100 bn Jafurah project’s infrastructure.

Saudi is bolstering ties with Europe: Investment Minister Khalid bin Abdulaziz Al Falih is heading a delegation to Poland on an official visit to strengthen economic ties and explore new investment opportunities, state news agency SPA reports. The agenda includes bilateral meetings with government officials and executives of major Polish companies, as well as participation in the Saudi-Polish Investment Forum in Warsaw, featuring workshops and discussions between public and private sector representatives.

ALSO- Development agency Invest Northern Ireland will lead a trade delegation of nine companies to the Kingdom and the UAE on 15-19 September, according to a press release. The mission is set to visit Riyadh, Dubai, and Ras Al Khaimah in a bid to discuss potential investments in major construction and sustainability projects.

The visits come hot on the heels of the Great Futures summit in London, which saw the signing of over GBP 360 mn in new joint investments. The agreements, unveiled by UK Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds, are expected to create 187 jobs in both countries, with 97 of them located in the UK.

Not just Europe: Chinese firms are also doubling down on GCC. Nearly 90% of Chinese companies plan to expand in the Middle East, PwC’s latest survey shows. Some 44% of the 136 firms surveyed have already formalized business plans — with 84% eyeing Saudi Arabia and 79% of respondents targeting the UAE, while Egypt came in third for top investment destinations.

The rationale: Profitability is on the rise, with 40% of firms reporting positive returns from regional operations, while the share of loss-makers has fallen to 15%. Companies are also moving from representative offices to full-scale entities — 77% now operate through local entities — with growing interest in digital tech, renewables, AI, and biopharma.

What they want: Nearly three-quarters of surveyed firms called for clearer and more efficient regulations, while 72% are seeking tax incentives outside freezones, PwC said.

MARKET WATCH-

Global crude oil inventories are set to expand by more than 2 mn bbl / d through the first quarter of 2026, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its latest short-term energy outlook (pdf). The agency had previously expected the surplus in 4Q 2025, but revised its view as supply growth outpaces demand. The updated forecast doesn’t yet factor in the additional production that Opec recently agreed to roll out.

The accumulation of inventories is expected to weigh on prices, with Brent seen averaging USD 51 / bbl next year — well below its current USD 66.50 / bbl, according to the EIA outlook. The agency added that the market imbalance could force Opec+ and other producers to dial back output later in 2026 to stabilize prices.

Some forecasts see prices in the 50s: Goldman Sachs also expects an oil surplus in 2026, revising its estimate to 1.9 mn bbl / d, and sees Brent averaging USD 56 / bbl in 2026. S&P Global is also projecting weaker crude prices by year-end, with dated Brent seen falling toward USD 55 / bbl as Opec continues to release additional supply.

Can China help? China’s stockpiling of crude oil, which absorbed surplus supply throughout this year, is expected to persist at a comparable pace into 2026, Reuters reported citing Gunvor head of research Frederic Lasserre.

SPORTS-

The Call of Duty League’s (CDL) Vegas Falcons will relocate to Riyadh for the 2026 season, rebranding as the Riyadh Falcons, according to an X post. The team also signed 2021 world champion McArthur “Cellium” Jove, who joins as its third North American player after a seven-year tenure with Atlanta FaZe, it said in a separate post.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

There’s only one story leading the conversation in the international press this morning: Prominent pro-Trump conservative influencer and co-founder of Turning Point USA Charlie Kirk was assassinated last night — shot dead while speaking at a Utah university. The 31-year-old, credited with mobilizing youth and minority voters for President Donald Trump’s second-term victory, was struck in the neck moments after taking a question on gun violence.

ON THE MARKETS FRONT- Oracle’s blowout quarter briefly made chairman Larry Ellison the world’s richest person yesterday, overtaking Elon Musk after the software giant’s shares jumped 36%. Ellison’s net worth hit a peak of USD 386 bn before easing back by the market close, while Oracle’s market value surged to USD 922 bn on the back of huge cloud contracts tied to OpenAI and other AI leaders. (Financial Times | Bloomberg | The Guardian | BBC | Axios | Washington Post | Reuters)

CLOSER TO HOME- Israel launched airstrikes on Yemen — killing 35 and injuring over 100 — after the Houthis launched a drone attack that hit an Israeli airport. The attack comes one day after Israel launched an attack on Qatar. (AP | New York Times | Reuters | Bloomberg)

ALSO WORTH NOTING THIS MORNING-

#1- Poland has become the first NATO member to fire on suspected Russian drones during the war in Ukraine, after 19 objects crossed into its airspace overnight during a Russian air attack on Ukraine. Prime Minister Donald Tusk called the incident a “large-scale provocation” and activated Article 4 of the NATO treaty, requesting emergency consultation with allies. (Reuters | Associated Press | The Guardian | BBC | New York Times)

#2- Life on Mars? NASA scientists say new rock samples collected from an ancient riverbed on Mars could hold the strongest evidence so far of ancient microbial life — though they stress much more analysis is needed. (Associated Press | CNN)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Jeddah Construct will run from 28 to 30 September at the Jeddah Superdome,

convening over 13k professionals and 200 exhibitors from over 25 countries to showcase over 3.5k products, solutions, and opportunities in the Western Province’s USD 692 bn construction market.

The 2025 Saudi International Falcons and Hunting Exhibition will run between 2-11 October in Riyadh. Organized by the Saudi Falcons Club, this year’s edition will feature a falcon auction, the Shalayel Museum, safari events, equestrian shows, and the Falconer of the Future event for children.

Aramco pulls in USD 20 bn in bond orders as debt hits three-year high + Alrajhi closes USD 1 bn issuanceh

Saudi Aramco is back in the bond market with a two-part USD-denominated sale, and it’s already drawing serious attention with orders reportedly exceeding USD 20 bn, Bloomberg reports, citing sources it says are familiar with the matter. The final size hasn’t been set yet, the sources added.

The high demand tightened the yields: The issuance includes a five-year tranche priced at 70 basis points above US Treasuries and a 10-year slice at 80 bps. Both came in about 35 basis points tighter than what the company initially hinted at.

This is Aramco’s second USD-denominated issuance this year, after raising USD 5 bn in May to fund projects and cover its beefy dividends. The oil giant said it may keep borrowing, including through commercial paper.

IN CONTEXT- With Aramco shares down 17% this year, selling bonds is looking a lot more attractive than selling shares. Yields on its USD debt maturing in 2035 have already dropped by 50 basis points to 4.92% since May. Aramco’s borrowing comes as the company’s finances feel some pressure after net debt hit USD 30.8 bn in the three months ending June, the highest level in three years, while net income dropped for a tenth straight quarter on the back of softer oil prices.

Part of a bigger Saudi wave: It’s the third big transaction in just a week, afte the government and the Public Investment Fund raised USD 7.5 bn combined. The Kingdom borrowed nearly USD 20 bn so far this year, getting close to a record set in 2017, making it one of the busiest emerging market borrowers around.

ADVISORS- Our friends at HSBC, alongside Al Rajhi Capital, Citi, Dubai Islamic Bank, First Abu Dhabi Bank, Goldman Sachs International, JP Morgan, KFH Capital and Standard Chartered Bank are serving as active joint bookrunners. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Albilad Capital, Alinma Capital, Bank of China, Emirates NBD Capital, Mizuho, MUFG, Sharjah Islamic Bank and SMBC are passive joint bookrunners.

MORE ISSUANCES-

#1- Al Rajhi wraps FCY debt sale: Al Rajhi bank raised USD 1 bn from the sale of tier 2 social trust certificates, priced at a yield of 5.651%, according to a bourse disclosure, with proceeds earmarked to support its financial and strategic objectives. The Reg S-compliant notes carry a 10.5-year maturity callable after five years. The issue, announced earlier this week as part of the lender’s international trust certificate program will be listed on the London Stock Exchange. Settlement is due for Tuesday, 16 September.

ADVISORS-The bank lined up a syndicate of global banks including our friends at HSBC, alongside Citi, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, DBS Bank, MUFG Securities EMEA, Natixis, Nomura International, Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank and Standard Chartered and Al Rajhi Capital as joint leads and bookrunners.

#2- Bank AlJazira eyes AT1 sale: Bank AlJazira is planning to issue USD-denominated additional tier 1 (AT1) capital certificates under its newly established AT1 sukuk issuance program, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The size and pricing of the offering — open to both local and international investors — are subject to market conditions. This comes a little under one year after Bank AlJazira last tapped the debt market with an AT1 sukuk sale.

ADVISORS-The bank mandated our friends at Mashreq alongside its own unit AlJazira Capital, as well as Citi, JP Morgan, Standard Chartered, Dubai Islamic Bank, and Emirates NBD as joint leads and bookrunners.

DATA POINT- Saudi banks are leaning harder on hybrid capital instruments to fund growth, S&P Global says. Local lenders issued USD 9.5 bn in sukuk YTD as of late August, up from USD 5.3 bn over the same period last year. Of this, USD 4.2 bn were AT1s, more than double the USD 2 bn raised a year earlier.

Why all the AT1 action? The surge comes as lending growth outpaces deposits under Vision 2030, pushing banks to diversify their funding mix while shoring up capital buffers, the rating agency said. AT1s are attractive because they count toward regulatory capital, carry coupons competitive with senior sukuk, and allow issuers to suspend distributions or write down principal if capital levels fall.

Almajdiah stumbles on Tadawul debut, despite strong IPO demand

Dar Al Majed Real Estate (aka as Almajdiah) joined a roster of muted debuts on Tadawul’s main market, inching down 1.2% to close at SAR 13.83 yesterday. This is despite an institutional offering that was 107x oversubscribed in early August, while the retail tranche closing 2.8x oversubscribed. The stock swung between a high of SAR 14.50 and a low of 13.40, with SAR 547.4 mn in value traded across 48.3k trades.

REFRESHER- The developer priced shares at SAR 14 apiece, the top of the indicative range. Selling shareholders raked in SAR 1.26 bn in proceeds from the sale of a 30% stake. The company landed Sinad Holding as a cornerstone investor with a 2.2% stake in July..

ADVISORS- Saudi Fransi Capital quarterbacked the transaction as financial advisor, lead manager, underwriter, and bookrunner, while Baker McKenzie provided counsel.

Receiving agents included our friends at EFG Hermes KSA, alongside Al Rajhi Capital, SAB Invest, Alinma Capital, Riyad Capital, Aljazira Capital, Alisthimar Capital, ANB Capital, SNB Capital, Derayah Financial, Yaqeen Capital, Alkhabeer Capital, and Sahm, among others.

ALSO IN THE PIPELINE-

Cherry Trading was the latest to secure approval from the Capital Market Authority to IPO a 30% on the main market;
Meanwhile, IT firm Ejada Systems, which missed its six-month IPO window, is set to resubmit an IPO application to the CMA;
Local contractor Mutlaq Al Ghowairi Contracting (MGC) and fast delivery app Ninja are said to be considering a Tadawul IPO as early as next year
Meanwhile, fintechs Emkan Finance and Tamweel Aloula are also rumoured to be eyeing main market IPOs;
Coldchain manufacturer Consolidated Grunenfelder Saady Holding got the regulators’ all-clear to float a 30% stake on Tadawul;
PIF-backed Saudi Global Ports, Tabreed District Cooling, Medical procurement firm Nupco, Riyad Capital, and BNPL platform Tabby are among companies that tapped banks for potential IPOs;
F&B players Barns, Half Million, Deemah, and Hashi Bashi are said to be sounding out banks for potential debuts on the main market;
Almosafer is preparing for a public listing on Tadawul by late 2025 or early 2026;
PIF-backed CloudKitchens is reportedly eyeing an IPO in the Kingdom or the UAE (or both);
Meal subscription startup Calo is also said to be eyeing an IPO here at home by 2027.

Hamad Mohammed Bin Saedan Nomu IPO slightly oversubscribed

Hamad Mohammed Bin Saedan Real Estate Company’s Nomu IPO was 114.2% covered, according to a disclosure. The real estate player is selling 4.24 mn shares (17.6% of its pre-IPO capital, or 15% post-IPO) at SAR 13.50 per share, valuing the company at SAR 381.2 mn at listing.

Use of proceeds: Net proceeds — after SAR 3.5 mn in offering costs — will go toward the company’s SAR 53.7 mn expansion plans and future projects. Management may also tap its own liquidity or raise additional financing if needed, while any surplus will be funneled to working capital. Existing shareholders will not receive any proceeds from the offering.

ADVISORS- Alinma Capital is acting as the lead manager on the transaction, Merchants Capital is serving as the financial advisor, and AlShareef & Partners is providing counsel.

Receiving agents include Alinma Capital, AlJazira Capital, Albilad Capital, Alkhabeer Capital, ANB Capital, Al Rajhi Capital, BSF Capital, Derayah Financial, GIB Capital, Alistithmar Capital, Riyad Capital, Sab Invest, Sahm Capital, SNB Capital, and Yaqeen Capital.

ALSO IN THE NOMU PIPELINE- Medical equipment supplier Wajd Life Trading Company’s Nomu IPO was 1.8x oversubscribed. Meanwhile, Sign World’s IPO was 108.7% covered. The Capital Market Authority also recently approved the listing of online supplement store Alwazn Almithaly for Trading and two new equity funds on the parallel market.

Transformation, innovation, and confidence: Saudi’s capital markets in focus at EFG Hermes London conference

Saudi’s growth story in focus at EFG Hermes London conference: Capital markets across the region — from Egypt to the UAE to Oman — are continuing to evolve, giving plenty of reason for optimism despite challenging regional dynamics, EFG Holding Group CEO Karim Awad said at the EFG Hermes Annual Conference in London earlier this week. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are continuing to lead the way regionally as we see “constantly evolving” capital markets, supported by “the vital role played by the Capital Markets Authority,” Awad said. This year’s edition of the conference has a “dedicated focus” on Saudi Arabia, zoning in on major themes in the Kingdom including the continuous growth and sophistication of Saudi capital markets, as well as the country’s booming real estate sector.

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“A story of transformation, innovation, and confidence.” That’s how Capital Market Authority (CMA) Board Commissioner Abdulaziz Abdulmohsen bin Hassan described Saudi’s capital markets journey over the past decade. Bin Hassan pointed out that, along with strong growth in several sectors of the economy including tourism, technology, and renewable energy, Saudi Arabia’s capital markets have also developed to foster a “thriving” environment for IPOs. “Today, Saudi Arabia’s capital market is the largest in MENA with a market cap exceeding USD 2.7 tn, representing 62% of the MENA region’s capitalization. But what sets us apart is not size — it’s our scale, liquidity, governance, and ambition.”

The IPO market speaks for itself: Saudi Arabia now sees an average of 40-50 IPOs each year, rising dramatically from an annual average of five to six debuts five years ago, CMA Deputy of Market Institution Raed Al Humaid said in a panel on the Kingdom’s growth story. This volume has positioned Saudi Arabia’s capital markets among the “top 10 [globally] when it comes to the number of IPOs,” supported by the introduction of key reforms such as streamlined listing regulations, Al Humaid said. Also expected to support the market’s growth is forthcoming SPAC regulations, which Al Humaid notes will provide “additional flexibility for issuances to go into the market.”

The country’s debt markets are also booming, doubling in value in five years to reach SAR 864 bn, compared to SAR 348 bn in 2019, according to Al Humaid. DCM fundraising — which currently stands at SAR 131 bn — has now surpassed the value of IPO equity fundraising, Al Humaid said. Saudi has already seen two public debt offerings this year, with another two expected by the end of 2025, Saudi Exchange CEO Mohammed Al Rumaih said. Next year, the exchange expects the number of debt offerings to hit the double digits, according to Al Rumaih.

What’s next? “Our next chapter is about deepening global connectivity,” bin Hassan said. “The CMA is introducing offshore business security licensing, enabling global institutions to serve their clients and key funds and sovereigns from Riyadh,” bin Hassan said, noting that this direction will help Riyadh take shape as “a preferred global capital hub” over the next few years.

ALSO- Keep an eye on the derivatives market, which the Saudi Exchange and CMA are working on revamping, after recently-launched futures and options trading “did not reach our targets,” Al Rumaih said. After working with international market makers to redesign these products’ specifications, the Saudi Exchange expects “this market to be very active,” which will bring in more liquidity and attract more investors in 2026.

Industrial production climbs 6.5% y-o-y in July

The Kingdom’s Industrial Production Index (IPI) rose 6.5% y-o-y in July, supported by growth across the manufacturing, mining and quarrying, and utilities sectors, according to data (pdf) from the General Authority for Statistics.

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Manufacturing was the fastest-growing sector during the month, rising 7% y-o-y on the back of 13.8% y-o-y growth in the manufacture of petroleum coke and refined petroleum products and an 8.9% y-o-y increase in the manufacture of chemical products.

Mining and quarrying activity saw a 6.5% y-o-y increase, with the Kingdom’s oil output rising to 9.53 mn bbl / d, up from 8.94 mn bbl / d in the same month last year.

Utilities were no slouch either: The sub-index of water supply, sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities rose 8.5% y-o-y, while the sub-index of electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply activity bumped up 0.9% y-o-y.

MEANWHILE- The oil activities index jumped 7.8% y-o-y in July, and the non-oil activities index posted a 3.5% y-o-y increase.

REMEMBER- Saudi Arabia’s non-oil business activity expanded at a slower pace in July, with the Riyad Bank PMI falling to 56.3 from June’s three-month high of 57.2. While overall growth was supported by higher output and new orders, the pace of expansion in both areas softened during the month.

STC Bank named fastest-growing in the Kingdom

STC Bank received the Fastest Growing Bank in Saudi Arabia Award at the GlobalBrand Frontier Awards, it said in a statement. The bank was recognized for expanding its digital banking services, including quick account opening, instant transfers, and diverse savings options.

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Saudi Amana to construct Pirelli tyre factory in KAEC for SAR 628 mn

MANUFACTURING-

Mena Tyre taps Saudi Amana for Pirelli plant construction: Mena Tyre Company has awarded a SAR 628 mn (USD 167 mn) contract to Saudi Amana, the local arm of UAE-based Group Amana, to build a Pirelli tyre manufacturing plant in the King Salman Automotive Cluster at King Abdullah Economic City (KAEC), Meed reported yesterday. UK-based firm Jones Lang LaSalle is the project consultant.

The details: Set to begin production in 2026, the facility will have an annual capacity of 3.5 mn tyres. It will produce passenger vehicle tyres under the Pirelli brand while also launching a new local brand for domestic and regional markets.

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STARTUP WATCH-

#1- Homegrown online pharma platform Dawadose raised an undisclosed amount in a pre-seed funding round, with participation from unnamed angel investors, it said in a statement last week. Dawadose will allocate the fresh funds to set up its headquarters in the Kingdom, as the primary development and operations hub.

About Dawadose: Established in 2019 by Rushdi Abdalghani (LinkedIn) and Osama Almabroum (LinkedIn), the platform targets providing pharmacies, drugstores, and consumers with e-commerce solutions in a bid to be the first integrated B2B and B2C e-pharma platform in the Middle East.

#2- Digital healthcare startup 21Doctors has closed an undisclosed sum in a pre-seed round with a group of angel investors, it said in a statement last week. The company will use the funds to set up its headquarters in Saudi Arabia as a development and operations hub for the Kingdom and Gulf markets, with a focus on advancing Arabic-language AI medical tools.

About 21Doctors: Founded by Osama Al-Mabroum (LinkedIn) and Rania Abu Taleb (LinkedIn), the platform connects patients with doctors, pharmacies, and laboratories, while helping healthcare providers expand their reach and visibility.

EVs-

Jeddah to get a new EV charging network: Jeddah Transport Company signed an MoU with Petromin — a Saudi Aramco-ExxonMobil JV — to develop an integrated electric vehicle (EV) charging network across the city, state news agency SPA reported on Monday. The agreement covers site assessment, as well as the design, installation, and operational support for the new charging stations.

M&A WATCH-

India’s Cupid entered a term sheet to acquire an undisclosed “strategic stake” in local fragrance brand Mansam, according to a filing (pdf) to the National Stock Exchange of India. The move, part of a global expansion plan for the Indian birth control products provider, will be executed through a fund structure managed by GII Investment Management.

Fitch lifts 2025 global growth forecast as China and eurozone improve, but warns of US slowdown

Fitch Ratings revised upward its 2025 world growth forecasts to 2.4% from 2.2% in June, citing stronger 2Q data in China and the eurozone, according to its global economic output report (pdf). However, the agency warned that global activity is still set to slow sharply from 2.9% in 2024, with evidence of a US deceleration now emerging in hard data.

China’s growth projection was raised to 4.7% from 4.2%, helped by a weaker exchange rate, falling export prices, and fiscal easing that has cushioned exports from the US tariff shock. However, Fitch warned that domestic demand is softening and deflation is “increasingly entrenched.”

The eurozone outlook was also upgraded to 1.1% from 0.8% after better-than-expected 1H trade data, though Fitch cautioned that much of the strength reflected front-running US tariffs. With consumer momentum fading, the bloc is unlikely to expand in 2H, though German fiscal support should add some cushion in 2026.

While the US’ growth forecast was lifted slightly to 1.6% from 1.5%, this is still below trend and significantly below the 2.8% growth rate recorded last year. Fitch flagged weaker consumption and hiring as tariffs, rising inflation, and tighter immigration squeeze growth. Consumer spending has already slowed, job growth has decelerated, and more inflationary pressure is likely to kick in soon. Fitch expects the Fed to respond with two more cuts this year and three in 2026.

Tariffs are set to weigh on near-term growth…: Fitch estimates the average US effective tariff rate at 16% — among the highest in the world. While pass-through CPI has so far been modest, inflationary effects are expected to intensify later this year, further weighing on household incomes. “Greater clarity about US tariff hikes does not alter the fact that they are huge and will reduce global growth,” said Brian Coulton, Fitch’s chief economist.

… and into 2026: The agency sees global growth slowing to 2.3% in 2026, well below trend. Long-term bond yields in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan remain under upward pressure, reflecting concerns about supply and fiscal sustainability, while the European Central Bank is unlikely to cut rates further, limiting chances of a near-term USD rebound.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Early morning trading is mixed in Asia-Pacific markets today, with Japan’s Nikkei hitting a fresh high on the back of tech investment group Softbank’s shares rising nearly 10% since markets opened. South Korea’s Kospi is also in the green, but Hong Kong’s HSI and mainland China’s CSI are both trading down. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures are trading mostly flat, after the S&P 500 hit another all-time high at market close yesterday, while the Dow Jones closed down.

TASI	10,498	-0.3% (YTD: -12.8%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,365	-0.1% (YTD: -9.6%)
NomuC	25,075	-0.5% (YTD: -20.3%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	5.0% repo	4.5% reverse repo
EGX30	34,670	+0.8% (YTD: +16.6%)
ADX	9,927	-0.3% (YTD: +5.4%)
DFM	5,923	-0.6% (YTD: +14.8%)
S&P 500	6,532	+0.3% (YTD: +11.1%)
FTSE 100	9,225	-0.2% (YTD: +12.9%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,361	-0.1% (YTD: +9.5%)
Brent crude	USD 67.58	+0.1%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.03	-0.1%
Gold	USD 3,682	0.0%
BTC	USD 113,954	+2.1% (YTD: +21.8%)
Sukuk/bond market index	917.49	+0.12% (YTD: +1.7%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	149.77	-0.1% (YTD: +7.0%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	15.35	+2.1% (YTD: -11.5%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI lost 0.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 3.7 bn. The index fell 12.8% YTD.

In the green: Retal (+2.9%), Al Masane Al Kobra Mining (+2.6%) and Malath Ins. (+2.4%).

In the red: Obeikan Glass (-6.1%), Thimar (-4.7%) and Build Station (-3.7%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC closed 0.5% down yesterday on turnover of SAR 25 mn. The index declined 20.3% YTD.

In the green: Naas Petrol (+13.4%), Horizon Food (+9.0%) and Leaf (+6.9%).

In the red: Jana (-14.8%), Natural Gas Distribution Co. (-9.4%) and Dar Al Markabah (-8.8%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Bupa Arabia for Cooperative Ins. received the go-ahead from the Ins. Authority for its restructuring into a holding company, it said in a Tadawul disclosure. The proposal involves demerging Bupa Arabia’s core ins. Business into a new, wholly-owned subsidiary, while the current listed entity would become the parent holding company. Bupa still needs shareholder approval and other regulatory procedures before it can finalize the move.

ADVISORS- Bupa tapped Lazard Saudi Arabia as its financial advisor and Zeyad Sameer Khoshaim Company (K&A) as legal advisor for the restructuring.

The board of Riyadh Cables Group greenlit a SAR 299.4 mn dividend distribution for 1H 2025 at SAR 2 per share, it said in disclosure to Tadawul yesterday. The distribution date is set for 14 October.

My Morning Routine: Ahmed Al Mashhadi, founder and CEO of Veem Solutions

Ahmed Al Mashhadi, founder and CEO of Veem Solutions: Each week, My Morning Routine looks at how a successful member of the community starts their day and then throws in a couple of random business questions just for fun. We spoke to Ahmed Al Mashhadi, founder and CEO of Veem Solutions, the parent company behind the AI platform vminds.ai. Edited excerpts from our conversation:

My name is Ahmed Al Mashhadi, and I’m the founder and CEO of Veem Solutions. I have more than 22 years of experience in the business sector with major companies like Procter & Gamble, PepsiCo International, Mobily, and Axiom, in addition to my background in industrial engineering and automation control. I’ve had the privilege of leading multi-mn USD projects in over 12 countries and have also worked in consulting for various companies and with governments on strategies for digital transformation and export sector development, making for a diverse and humbling journey.

I founded Veem Solutions about four years ago, an idea born out of my time in consulting where I consistently saw gaps in the market: underserved needs, a lack of service integration, and inefficient use of technology in business operations. If I could build a tech company that truly understood these challenges from the inside, we could offer more effective solutions. It wasn’t just about studying the market, but rather building solutions based on direct experience with these frustrations, with the ultimate goal of creating a tech-centric company that could address these needs with practical applications and services.

vminds was created to address a clear gap in the market, as the massive and rapid evolution of AI is causing something of a paralysis for both individuals and companies. People hear about AI everywhere, but they often don't know where to start, what tools to use, what’s safe, or what’s affordable. Our main objective is to democratize AI, to make it accessible for everyone.

Our platform not only consolidates over 200 AI tools under a single subscription, but also incorporates critical safety features. For example, we have tools to combat AI "hallucinations,” which is crucial for anyone relying on AI for reports or analysis. We prioritize user privacy, confidentiality, and data accuracy so users can work with peace of mind, with everything happening within our secure and seamless platform.

Our business is divided into two main arms: a services sector and an applications sector. The services arm provides smart and immersive tech solutions like AI, AR, and VR for exhibitions and conferences.

Under our solutions arm, we have projects like shrwd, a business intelligence platform that uses AI for competitive analysis and tracking brand health. It’s about 85% complete and should be on the market by the beginning of next year. We are also developing ptchr, a platform designed to support the creative economy by enabling users to generate books — from cover to content — using AI.

My management style is a balance between discipline and freedom, a philosophy I’ve developed after years of experience with different companies. I believe in following the most modern administrative approaches, which means mixing commitment and discipline with freedom and innovation. A person is not a machine; you have to consider the psychological and emotional aspects to create an environment where employees feel like they are part of the entity, not just a cog in the wheel.

We employ a revenue-sharing system, where a percentage of the revenue from each project is allocated to the team that worked on it, to ensure loyalty and commitment to quality. We also operate on a flexible work model where we demand performance but don't dictate how or when the work gets done. If someone works best at 10 pm, that’s their choice.

I’m an early riser, usually waking up around 4:30-5am. After Fajr prayer, I organize my schedule for the day. Rather than creating long-term personal plans, I work week by week, setting targets and ensuring they are met by the end of the week. My workday of planning starts around 7-7:30 am, when I begin with looking at emails. The official workday kicks off around 9:15am, kicking off daily check-in meetings with the project teams to review accomplishments and plan tasks for the rest of the week.

I embrace mobility and don't believe in being tied to an office. I find the traditional, closed-office work style restrictive. My laptop is my office, and I often work from cafes or other public places because being on the move keeps me energized. This freedom isn’t just for me; it extends to our entire team. This lifestyle allows me to enjoy my work despite all the pressure.

Outside of work, family time is important, so we take short trips, and I often spend my leisure time watching my daughters at their sports practices. For myself, I have two main outlets: video games and meditation. I am an avid gamer because I find it's a form of therapy; it energizes a part of my mind that allows me to see problems from different angles and find solutions. I enjoy puzzle games, strategy games like DomiNations, and shooters like PUBG. To balance this high-energy lifestyle, I also practice meditation, often just walking without a destination to clear my mind.

If I had to give one piece of advice, it would be this: succeed or die trying. Don’t let negativity stop you. I started my business with practically no resources after a family situation left me with nothing, facing a tremendous amount of pressure and discouragement from people who told me it was impossible. But every time I heard "impossible," my determination grew stronger. I believed in the value of what I was trying to create. So only listen to people who have your best interests at heart. If you are convinced of your idea, trust in God, and don't hesitate.

CALENDAR

9-11 September (Tuesday-Wednesday):The Saudi Food and Drug Authority and the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization’s Hack4safeFood, Riyadh.

9-11 September (Tuesday-Thursday): Index Saudi Arabia, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center.

9-11 September (Tuesday-Thursday): International Beauty Expo 2025, Jeddah Superdome.

9-11 September (Tuesday-Thursday): Seredo Real Estate Development and Ownership Exhibition, Jeddah Superdome.

15 September (Monday): Deadline for businesses subject to excise tax file their July and August tax returns via Zatca’s website.

15-17 September (Monday-Wednesday): Smart Cities Saudi Expo 2025, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

15-17 September (Monday-Wednesday): Money 20/20 Middle East, Riyadh.

15-17 September (Monday-Wednesday): Global Infrastructure Forum, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center.

16-18 September (Tuesday-Thursday): Orgatech Workspace Saudi Arabia, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

17-18 September (Wednesday-Thursday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

23 September (Tuesday): Saudi National Day.

28-30 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Jeddah Construct, Jeddah Superdome.

29-30 September (Monday-Tuesday): Cultural Investment Conference, King Fahd Cultural Center, Riyadh.

29 September-1 October (Monday-Wednesday): Intersec Saudi Arabia, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Centre, Riyadh.

29 September-1 October (Monday-Wednesday): World Travel Market (WTM) Spotlight, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

30 September (Tuesday): Deadline for businesses subject to VAT to file their August tax returns.

3Q 2025

The National Water Company is expected to award a construction contract for the Hail Region Water Networks project.

OCTOBER

1 October (Wednesday): Electronic salary transfer via the Musaned platform to include employers with two or more domestic workers.

1-3 October (Wednesday-Friday): Saudi Green Building Forum, Riyadh.

1-3 October (Wednesday-Friday): FIBO Arabia 2025, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center.

2-11 October (Thursday-Saturday): 2025 Saudi International Falcons and Hunting Exhibition, Riyadh.

5 October-8 January 2026: Title deed registration for 3.2k properties in Al Yasmin district, Hail.

6-8 October (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Lifestyle Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

7-8 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global EV & Mobility Technology (GEMTECH) Forum, Riyadh.

12 October-15 January 2026: Title deed registration for 31.7k properties in 14 neighborhoods in the Eastern Province.

12 October-15 January 2026: Title deed regiswatch tration for about 157.3k properties in 78 neighborhoods across the Eastern Province.

15 October (Wednesday): Russian-Arab Summit.

16 October (Thursday): Aviation Impact Middle East, Hyatt Regency Riyadh Olaya .

17 October (Friday): Saudization for private healthcare roles enters its second phase.

21 October (Tuesday): The Visual Arts Commission will hold a public talk and a live performance in Paris through Asia NOW under its Art & Ideas program.

21-22 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Saudi Festival of Creativity (Athar), JAX District, Riyadh.

21-23 October (Tuesday-Thurday): Global Internet of Things Congress 2025 (GIoTC 2025), the Arena Venue, Riyadh.

22-23 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Private Capital Forum, Riyadh.

23-25 October (Thursday-Saturday): Zenos Wellness Summit, Bab Samhan Hotel, Riyadh.

24 October-1 November (Friday-Saturday): AlUla Wellness Festival.

26-27 October (Sunday-Monday): The Global Proptech Summit 2025, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah, Riyadh.

27-30 October (Monday-Thursday): Global Health Exhibition, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Center, Riyadh.

27-30 October (Monday-Thursday): Future Investment Initiative (FII9), King Abdulaziz International Conference Center (KAICC) and the Ritz-Carlton, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

2 November (Sunday): Naming ASICS Innovation Pitch competition’s six finalists.

3-9 November (Monday- Sunday): WTA Tour Finals, Riyadh.

5-9 November (Wednesday-Sunday): Jewellery Salon Expo, Riyadh.

7-8 November (Sunday-Monday): The Visual Arts Commission will conclude its Art & Ideas program with a two-day symposium in Riyadh.

8-9 November (Saturday-Sunday): Del Monte Superleague Supercup, Jeddah.

9 November (Sunday): The deadline for applications for the second batch of the Standard Incentives for the Industrial sector deadline.

11-13 November (Tuesday-Thursday): TouriseSummit, Riyadh.

17-20 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre, Riyadh.

19-22 November (Wednesday-Saturday): PIF Saudi International Golf Championship, Riyadh Gold Club.

20 November (Thursday): Deadline for title deed registration for 14.6k properties across 21 neighborhoods in Qassim.

22 November (Saturday): The Ring IV, ANB arena, Riyadh.

23-26 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh.

23-27 November (Sunday-Thursday): Global Industry Summit by United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Riyadh.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday): The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday): Metropolis Madinah Conference for civilizational capitals, King Salman International Convention Centre (KSICC), Al Madinah.

25-26 November (Thursday-Saturday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue, Ghirnatah.

25-29 November (Thursday-Monday): General Aviation Airshow 2025 - Sand & Fun, Riyadh.

27 November (Saturday): Deadline for title deed registration for 8.7k properties in Jeddah’s Al Sheraa and Al Amwaj neighborhoods.

27-30 November (Thursday-Sunday): World Rally Championship Saudi Arabia 2025, Jeddah.

28-30 November (Friday-Sunday): UIM F1H2O World Championship, Jeddah.

30 November (Sunday): Zatca 21st E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

DECEMBER

1-3 December (Monday-Wednesday): Industrial Transformation Saudi Arabia, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): International Conference on Nuclear and Radiological Emergencies, Riyadh.

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): 61st ISOCARP World Planning Congress, Riyadh.

7-9 December (Sunday-Tuesday): CoMotion Global 2025, Riyadh.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

11 December (Thursday): Deadline for title deed registration for 214.2k properties across Riyadh and the Eastern Province.

25-27 December (Saturday-Monday): The Fortune Global Forum 2025, Riyadh.

31 December (Wednesday): Zatca 22nd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

31 December (Wednesday): Cancellation of Fines and Exemption of Financial Penalties Initiative by the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (Zatca) deadline.

December: Made in Saudi exhibition, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh

2026

JANUARY

1 January (Thursday): Electronic salary transfer via the Musaned platform becomes mandatory for all domestic workers in the Kingdom.

13-15 January (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Minerals Forum, King Abdul Aziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

20 January (Tuesday): SuperReturn Saudi Arabia, Hotel Fairmont, Riyadh.

18-21 January (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Hospital Design and Build Expo, Riyadh.

26-27 (Monday-Tuesday): GPRC Summit, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Franchise Expo (SFE), Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): Real Estate Future Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

27-28 (Tuesday-Wednesday): SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh.

28 (Wednesday): Data Center Nation Riyadh, Riyadh.

28-30 (Wednesday-Friday): Jeddah International Travel and Tourism Exhibition (JTTX), Jeddah.

FEBRUARY

2-4 (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Media Forum, Riyadh.

2-4 (Monday-Wednesday): Women Leaders Summit and Awards KSA, Riyadh.

3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday): RLC Global Forum Annual Meeting, Riyadh.

5-7 February (Thursday-Saturday): LIV Golf 2026 season opener, Riyadh Golf Club, Riyadh.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh.

9-14 February (Monday-Saturday): Asian Racing Conference, Crowne Plaza Riyadh RDC Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

11 (Wednesday) Digital Transformation Summit Saudi Arabia (DTS), Riyadh.

11-14 (Wednesday-Saturday): JeddaDerm, Jeddah.

13-14 February (Friday-Saturday): Jeddah E-Prix 2026, Jeddah.

MARCH

31 March (Tuesday): Zatca’s 23rd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

APRIL

6 April (Monday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

6-7 April (Monday-Tuesday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-16 April (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21 April (Tuesday): GC Summit Saudi Arabia 2026, Saudi Arabia.

27-29 April (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

OCTOBER

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh.
The 2026 World Route Development Forum (Routes World), Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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