Aramco is managing the export crisis with tenders and trims

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Trump says war will end “very soon”

Good morning, ladies and gents. We’re rapidly approaching the final third of the holy month, and hoping it will be less stressful than what we’ve seen these past 10 days.

Things appear to have calmed down in our neck of the woods, with the pace of attacks slowing down significantly in the Gulf and few reports of Iranian missiles and drones targeting infrastructure.

Did Trump just give us reason to believe the end of the war is upon us? US President Donald Trump last night said that the war will end “very soon.” The messaging from the White House sent oil prices tumbling from nearly USD 120 / bbl during trading to below USD 90 / bbl.

Before you get your hopes up: Trump threatened bombing “at a much, much harder level” if Tehran disrupted oil supplies. The administration aims to keep down oil prices after they “went artificially up” following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, Trump said.

Tehran isn’t backing down: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said it would not allow “one liter of oil” to leave the region if US-Israeli strikes continue.

IN TODAY’S ISSUE- We’re still trying to figure out how the escalation will impact us, from reports of Aramco resorting to the spot market — and slowing down production? — to gauging how investment bankers see our IPO pipeline this year and how resilient our banking sector’s liquidity is in the face of the storm. Let’s dive in.

Happening tomorrow

Tadawul’s first new listing of 2026 is finally here: Saleh Abdulaziz Al Rashed will begin trading on the main market on Wednesday. The construction materials and mining company is listing a 30% stake — good for some 5.58 mn shares.

It could be a while until we see another listing: Some investment bankers are advising clients to abandon the April-June listing window following the sharp regional escalation — unless they are already in the final stages of regulatory sign-off. We have more on this in today’s news well, below.

Watch this space

MARKET WATCH — Morgan Stanley gave Saudi Arabia the “overweight” upgrade, positioning the Kingdom as the region's premier defensive play amid rising Middle East uncertainty, according to a note to clients picked up by Investing.com. The bank’s strategists pointed to three core pillars behind the call: the economy’s positive exposure to higher energy prices, relatively light positioning by global emerging market funds, and the stability of the SAR’s USD peg.

Outperforming the neighborhood: Unlike its neighbors, Saudi equities historically outperform during periods of USD strength, the bank said — a trend currently supported by safe-haven flows. With valuations looking attractive, Morgan Stanley expects higher oil prices to translate directly into stronger economic activity and corporate earnings.

Regional view: This upgrade comes as Morgan Stanley shifts away from Egypt and the UAE, both now rated “equal weight” as they face higher risks from oil price shocks and geopolitical impacts on tourism and trade.

OIL — G7, IEA are readying the emergency oil taps as Brent surges. G7 finance ministers and the International Energy Agency (IEA) held an emergency meeting to discuss a massive, coordinated release of strategic oil reserves, though they decided to hold off for now while the group monitors the situation, Bloomberg quotes France’s Finance Minister Roland Lescure as saying.

This would come after a historic surge in crude prices — triggered by the conflict in the Gulf — propelled Brent 24% higher in Asia to trade at over USD 116 as of Monday before cooling down after Trump signaled that the war is nearing its end.

US officials are reportedly considering a release of up to 400 mn barrels, CNBC reports, nearly 30% of the total IEA reserve, in an effort to soothe markets. Analysts suggest the record price spike has left them little choice, despite previous reluctance under the Trump administration.

AUTOMOTIVE — Hormuz closure triggers car market paralysis: While used vehicles could become a primary market focus due to an expected decline in demand for premium brands in a high-price environment, as we reported last week, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has paralyzed a corridor for Japanese and South Korean used-vehicle exports, Nikkei Asia reports. The halt on re-exports through the UAE is expected to trigger a supply crunch and jack up prices across Middle Eastern and African markets.

TECH UPDATE — Will hyperscalers reroute Gulf data traffic eastward? The escalating war has reportedly prompted hyperscale cloud providers like Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Microsoft Azure to begin redirecting data center workloads from the UAE and Oman to India and Singapore, Economic Times reports, citing unnamed sources. To maintain the low latency required for critical traffic, especially banking, companies are reportedly securing immediate capacity in Mumbai, Chennai, Hyderabad, and Kochi.

REMEMBER- A series of drone strikes last week hit two AWS data centers in the UAE and one in Bahrain, causing structural damage.

Sports

A 95th-minute header from Mohamed Simakan snagged Al Nassr a 1-0 victory over Neom SC in the Saudi Pro League on Saturday. The W grants three points to Al Nassr, putting it at the top of the league table — two points ahead of Al Ahli Saudi FC and three clear of Al Hilal with nine games remaining.

This was the team’s first match without Cristiano Ronaldo, sidelined for several weeks with a hamstring injury sustained in last week’s W over Al Fayha. The injury sent him to Spain for treatment.

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The big story abroad

Apart from Trump’s comments on the regional war (which we dive into in the news well, above), a few stories are getting top billing.

#1- Anthropic is suing the Pentagon and other federal agencies for designating the AI firm a “supply chain risk” and attempting to cancel its federal contracts. The row began when Anthropic demanded assurances that its AI tools wouldn’t be leveraged by the Pentagon for mass domestic surveillance or autonomous weapons.

#2- Goldman Sachs has pitched a new hedge fund that allows it to assume a short or long position on corporate loans, the Financial Times reports. The financial product would allow clients to capitalize on further falls in loans made to software companies, after the sector saw its stocks tumble as AI developments threatened its business offerings.

#3- Washington agreed to resolve its longstanding prosecution of Turkey’s state-run Halkbank, which it had accused of aiding Iran in evading US-imposed sanctions.

Aramco is managing the war with tenders and trims

Aramco is maneuvering to keep crude moving: With its primary export arteries under fire, Saudi Aramco is trading its traditional long-term playbook for more agile spot-market tactics and output cuts in an effort to manage a crisis that is edging closer to the wellhead.

What happened

Aramco has reportedly offered some 4.6 mn barrels of crude across spot tenders in recent days, including Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, and Arab Heavy, as disruption traps cargoes and forces barrels onto alternative routes.

The trades: Some 2 mn barrels of Arab Extra Light were sold to Japan’s Idemitsu Kosan from a supertanker positioned near Taiwan at a USD 30-40 / bbl premium to official selling prices, Bloomberg reports, citing traders. Aramco also offered 2 mn barrels of Arab Heavy to load at Egypt’s Ain Sokhna between 10-30 March on an FOB basis for Asian buyers. In another tender, 650k barrels of Arab Light on a CFR basis were offered from Yanbu, with delivery timing tied to voyage duration.

The tenders signal a market under pressure. Aramco rarely sells crude through spot tenders and normally moves most barrels under long-term contracts, but disrupted export routes are forcing a change in play. The alternative routes are now in action, with the Kingdom pushing unusually large volumes west through the East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea.

The Red Sea system is already working overtime: Shipments from Saudi’s western terminals have surged to around 2.3 mn bbl / d so far this month — roughly 50% higher than any monthly flows from those terminals since late 2016.

While there’s a storage buffer…: The Kingdom holds the largest crude storage capacity compared to other Gulf states, equivalent to some 36 days of exports. If shipments are rerouted to Red Sea terminals — as is the case now — that buffer can stretch to around 65 days. But if shipments cannot move fast with volume, storage fills, and production slows.

…production has started slowing: The state giant has reportedly begun curtailing output at two oilfields, Reuters reports, citing two anonymous sources. It is not clear which fields or how much production is being curtailed, but the move fits the broader picture now unfolding across the Gulf oil trade — producers are trying to reroute some cargoes, but export capacity is still finite when the main shipping artery is constrained.

What this means: The whole chain is beginning to adjust in sequence. First come trade tools like spot tenders to reposition cargoes, then logistical shifts through alternative routes, and eventually production adjustment when export capacity — not production capacity — becomes the constraint. Disruptions are now pushing stress upstream — from tankers to the wellhead.

Putting listings on ice

The Kingdom’s IPO pipeline could be hitting a hard calendar wall. Some investment bankers are advising clients to abandon the April-June listing window following the sharp regional escalation — unless they are already in the final stages of regulatory sign-off.

While the TASI pared back some initial losses, a geopolitical markdown is now being baked into valuations, making 1H listings increasingly unattractive for those not desperate for liquidity.

“We are advising clients to temporarily pause IPO plans,” Chiro Ghosh, group head of research at Sico Capital, tells EnterpriseAM, adding that a formal de-escalation could help draw in more foreign demand for Saudi listings.

1H is starting to look like a write-off

The process of getting the regulatory green light alone can take months, senior investment banker Mustafa Fahim tells EnterpriseAM. He estimates a minimum eight-month lead time from start to listing, between fixing corporate governance, finalizing financials, and navigating multiple rounds of CMA Q&As. “If a company comes to us today, it’s going to take until the end of the year to potentially list,” he said.

For those who are ready to list, going public now comes with the risk of a valuation haircut, as the risk premium for Saudi equities has spiked. “The multiples have been reduced,” Fahim tells us. A company that might have listed at a 15x P/E multiple last year is now looking at 11-12x. “There is a significant valuation degradation taking place because of geopolitical risk and demand suppression,” Fahim says.

Nomu is also feeling the slowdown. Institutional investors are increasingly gravitating toward larger, main market material companies, leaving smaller listings with thinner coverage and weaker demand, Fahim tells us. That shift is making the parallel market a tougher venue for new issuers and complicating plans for companies hoping to graduate to TASI.

Who’s exposed (and who isn’t)?

Companies in hospitality, aviation, and consumer discretionary, as well as exporters whose trade routes depend on the Strait of Hormuz, are seen as particularly exposed to the current tensions, according to Ghosh.

Meanwhile, utilities and rent-seeking businesses with long-term contracts — such as energy infrastructure and engineering services — are being pitched as war-proof havens because their demand isn’t cyclical, Fahim tells us.

The pressure isn’t just geopolitical

Fahim also notes a top-down squeeze as the PIF scales back funding for gigaprojects like Neom and The Line. The reduction in stimulus is hitting earnings and dampening the “IPO exuberance” of previous years, as roughly 80% of the corporate ecosystem is tied to government spending.

It’s not all doom and gloom

Primary issuances raising fresh capital still have a good fighting chance. “These transactions can proceed despite short-term market volatility as long as management does not see a material threat to their operating plans or capital deployment,” Ghosh said. By contrast, offers for sale by existing shareholders tend to be more sensitive to market sentiment and investor risk appetite.

For expansion-heavy companies that can’t wait for the window to reopen, the sukuk market is a viable alternative, Fahim tells us.

MEANWHILE- Private equity remains unattractive, with multiples (7-8x) trailing even weak public market valuations, he said.

A September traffic jam in the making?

The pipeline is alive, but it’s forming a backlog. Companies are still coming in to prepare for IPOs, particularly those thinking beyond the current volatility, Fahim tells us. While the first half of 2026 looks significantly slower, he expects an “inversion” of last year’s trend, with momentum building toward 2H 2026 and 2027.

“I’m bullish on sectors like energy infrastructure, data centers, telecommunications, AI, and cybersecurity,” he said, adding that he expects “listings from the consumer sector as well, especially F&B companies and real estate developers.”

The liquidity gap facing Saudi banks

The escalation is testing the liquidity buffers of Saudi banks, threatening to drive up the cost of wholesale funding just as lenders need it most to finance Vision 2030. A prolonged regional conflict could trigger between USD 111-260 bn in deposit outflows across the broader GCC, according to a recent Bloomberg Intelligence report picked up by Asharq Business and an article by Fitch Solutions’ research unit BMI.

Saudi banks are heading into this storm with less structural liquidity than their regional peers. The Kingdom’s banking sector is currently sitting on a negative cashflow gap of SAR 572 bn (USD 152 bn), equating to roughly 12% of total assets. Some lenders, including Bank Al Jazira, Saib, Saudi Awwal Bank, Banque Saudi Fransi, and Alinma, are showing notable negative liquidity gaps.

Why it matters

The real vulnerability for Saudi lenders is the wholesale debt market. Since 2022, Saudi banks have aggressively expanded their reliance on short-term external funding, such as certificates of deposit, which now make up 28% of their funding sources.

If airspace closures, trade disruptions, and war-risk premiums persist, the cost of this vital cross-border funding will spike, squeezing net interest margins and potentially slowing capital accumulation. This dynamic could ultimately complicate the massive pipeline of corporate lending required to back the Kingdom’s gigaprojects.

The silver lining? High oil prices and heavy state backing. Elevated oil prices translate directly into stronger government revenues, providing a crucial tailwind for state deposits. Government and state-linked entities already account for 32% of all deposits in the Saudi banking sector, offering a massive domestic firewall against external shocks.

ALSO- Expats make up only 44% of the Kingdom's population — meaning Saudi banks are far less exposed to the sudden “flight to safety” retail withdrawals currently threatening the UAE.

More 2025 earnings

Nahdi Medical Company

Nahdi Medical Company’s net income edged up 1.2% y-o-y to SAR 830.7 mn in 2025, it said in an earnings release (pdf). Revenues rose 8.1% y-o-y to SAR 10.2 bn during the year. Growth was driven mainly by a 6.2% expansion in the firm’s retail segment, alongside its healthcare (up 75.3%) and UAE (up 35.5%) businesses, despite higher expansion and digital investment costs and increased finance and lease interest charges.

Dividends: The company’s board will distribute an SAR 390 mn dividend payout for 2H 2025 at SAR 3 apiece, it said in a separate disclosure. The distribution is scheduled for Thursday, 9 April.

Petro Rabigh

Petro Rabigh posted a net loss of around SAR 3.9 bn in 2025, down 14.1% y-o-y, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Management attributed the loss to lower financing costs and early repayment of loans. The company’s revenues slid around 9.5% y-o-y to SAR 35 bn over the same period, on the back of lower average selling prices for refined and petrochemical products.

First Milling

First Milling’s net income rose around 10.6% y-o-y to SAR 277.4 mn in 2025, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The firm’s top line rose 9.3% y-o-y to SAR 1.1 bn in the same period, which management attributed to higher production capacity following an acquisition and growth in the feed segment.

Dividends:The company will distribute SAR 92.2 mn in dividends for 2H 2025, at SAR 1.67 per share, it said in a separate disclosure.

Scientific & Medical Equipment House

Scientific& Medical Equipment House saw its net income climb 8.4% y-o-y to SAR 28.4 mn in 2025 thanks to a decrease in general and administrative expenses and financing costs, as well as eliminated losses from discontinued operations of a subsidiary firm, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Its revenues were essentially unchanged at SAR 876.7 mn.

Dividends:The company’s board recommended a dividend payout of SAR 30 mn for 2025, at SAR 1 per share.

Talco

Al Taiseer Group Talco Industrial posted a 2.2% y-o-y increase in its bottom line in 2025, amounting to around SAR 84.5k, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. This growth stemmed from higher sales and lower zakat expenses. Talco’s top line rose 10.4% y-o-y to 780k for the same period.

Muhlah gets expansion fuel from seed round

Muhlah bags SAR 28.3 mn in seed investment

Homegrown microlending fintech Muhlah secured SAR 28.3 mn (c. USD 7.5 mn) in a seed round led by BIM Ventures and Japan’s SBI Group, according to a press release. The round saw participation from Al Suhaimi Holding Group and Fakhr Investment Holding Company.

Where will the money go? The funding will help Muhlah expand its shariah-compliant financing capacity, using off-balance-sheet and partner-backed structures. The company also plans to explore additional funding sources and international partnerships to support future growth.

About Muhlah: Founded by Abdulaziz AlRammah (LinkedIn) in 2024 and licensed by Sama, Muhlah is a BIM Ventures venture-studio spinoff focused on providing consumer financing solutions.

Aldawaa Medical Services divests subsidiaries outside KSA

Aldawaa Medical Services will liquidate its subsidiaries abroad, transferring their operations into the Kingdom, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. This includes Hollinz GmbH and Ronzak GmbH in Germany as well as Glanzzen Freezone and Aldawaa Medical Services Freezone in Dubai.

Investors seek protection through credit default swaps

US and European credit markets are on edge, and investors are starting to hedge while it’s cheap. Banks and financial advisors like Barclays and Morgan Stanley are recommending clients turn to credit default swap (CDS) protection on the high-yield US index to hedge against possible defaults, Bloomberg reports. This comes as risks around prolonged geopolitical tensions, AI concerns, and a weakening US jobs market threaten markets.

Turning to derivatives: Prices were up 3 basis points this past week for protection on high-grade US corporate bonds as spreads on cashbonds tightened. Investors are being advised to sell less profitable protection to fund the swaps, and bullish positions in high-grade credit-default swap indexes fell by about a fifth in recent weeks, according to data from the business information service.

Why now? The risks from geopolitics and signs of cracks in the private credit market aren’t fully priced in, making this a good time to lock in protection, portfolio manager at Saba Capital Management Andrew Weinberg said.

ICYMI- Private credit is under the microscope. The asset class is currently struggling with slow inflows, mounting withdrawals, and warnings of defaults spiking as corporate, AI boom-linked debt rises. UBS forecast private credit default rates could reach 15%, though Ares Management’s CEO Mike Arougheti called that “absolutely wrong,” and Goldman Sachs’ CEO said the fears are overblown.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets rebounded strongly in early trading this morning, coinciding with falling oil prices and easing concerns over the war in the region, especially after Trump said the war is nearing its end. Japan’s Nikkei surged over 3%, while South Korea’s Kospi jumped more than 6%. The sentiment is yet to hit Wall Street, with futures broadly in the red.

TASI	10,831	-1.6% (YTD: +3.2%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,464	-1.7% (YTD: +5.5%)
NomuC	22,277	-1.5% (YTD: -4.4%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	46,415	-0.8% (YTD: +11.0%)
ADX	9,863	-0.4% (YTD: -1.3%)
DFM	5,754	-2.8% (YTD: -4.9%)
S&P 500	6,796	+0.8% (YTD: -0.7%)
FTSE 100	10,250	-0.3% (YTD: +3.2%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,685	-0.6% (YTD: -1.8%)
Brent crude	USD 88.84	-10.2%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.08	-1.2%
Gold	USD 5,152	+1.0%
BTC	USD 68,460	+3.1% (YTD: -21.9%)
Sukuk/bond market index	919.58	0.0% (YTD: 0.0%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	1,030	+0.1% (YTD: +3.8%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	25.73	-13.3% (YTD: +84.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 1.6% yesterday on turnover of SAR 7.1 bn. The index is up 3.2% YTD.

In the green: Petro Rabigh (+9.9%), Chemanol (+9.9%), and Sisco Holding (+6.7%).

In the red: MBC Group (-8.5%), Nayifat (-7.0%), and Budget Saudi (-3.0%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 1.5% yesterday on turnover of SAR 38.5 mn. The index is down 4.4% YTD.

In the green: Alqemam (+7.9%), Alrazi (+7.6%), and Alhasoob (+6.5%).

In the red: Naba Alsaha (-9.6%), Future Vision (-9.2%), and Dkhoun (-8.7%).

CALENDAR

MARCH

12 March (Thursday): Deadline for real estate registration for 253.2k properties in 499 neighborhoods across Riyadh, Qassim, Makkah, and Hail.

18-23 March (Tuesday-Monday): Eid Al Fitr holiday (TBC).

21 March (Saturday): Fanatics Flag Football Classic, Kingdom Arena, Riyadh.

25-27 March (Wednesday-Friday): Future Investment Initiative Institute, Faena Hotel, Miami Beach.

31 March (Tuesday): Zatca’s 23rd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

APRIL

6 April (Monday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

6-7 April (Monday-Tuesday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-16 April (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh

22-23 April (Wednesday-Thursday): The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah.

27-29 April (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

28 April (Tuesday): GC Summit Saudi Arabia, Riyadh.

MAY

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

5-6 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh.

19-21 May (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid Al Adha holiday.

JUNE

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

12-15 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

NOVEMBER

24-28 November (Tuesday-Saturday): Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun, Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
November: The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia;
6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh;
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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