Good morning. Despite US President Donald Trump signaling the war will end “very soon,” drone and missile attacks on the Gulf continue (albeit at a slower pace), while War Secretary Pete Hegseth said yesterday was the “most intense” day of the US-Israeli campaign against Iran so far, and Iran launched salvos of missiles towards Israel.
Hormuz remains effectively closed and is turning into a flashpoint. US forces destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the strait in an effort to keep the global chokepoint open, while Iran’s IRGC threatened to use submarines and missiles to completely halt the movement of US and allied fleets.
The crisis is triggering a “severe chain reaction” across shipping, ins., aviation, agriculture, and automotive supply chain,” Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said, noting that global inventories are already sitting near five-year lows. We have more on that (and Aramco’s 2025 earnings) in today’s big story, below.
Watch this space
DEFENSE — Riyadh is reportedly in negotiations with Kyiv to acquire USD mns worth of Ukrainian-made interceptor drones, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unnamed sources. The agreement could be signed as soon as today, an unnamed source told Kyiv Independent.
Why it matters: The Kingdom is seeking a cost-effective shield against the surge of Iranian-made Shahed drones currently targeting Gulf infrastructure. Riyadh has relied for years on US-made Patriot and Thaad systems, which fire interceptors costing upwards of USD 3 mn each, to down drones that cost as little as USD 20k to manufacture. Ukraine’s battle-tested interceptor drones — like the Sting or Octopus — promise to handle the high-volume saturation attacks Iran has unleashed since late February at much lower costs.
OIL — The Middle East’s oil machine is throttling back: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait have cut production by some 6.7 mn bbl / d — shaving some 6% off global oil supply, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. Saudi trimmed some 2.5 mn bbl / d, Iraq roughly 2.9 mn bbl / d, the UAE 500k-800k bbl / d, and Kuwait about 500k bbl / d. For Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait, that translates to roughly 20-25% below February output levels.
SPEAKING OF- Following Monday’s drop, oil prices eased further yesterday after the Wall Street Journal reported that the International Energy Agency is considering releasing more than 182 mn barrels of oil to curb the surge in prices seen since the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran war. A decision on the motion is anticipated today. The plan requires unanimous approval for immediate adoption, otherwise the process could be stalled.
Prices fell on the news, with Brent futures dropping 0.26% to USD 87.57 / bbl and West Texas Intermediate dipping 0.44% to USD 83.08.
Lower oil prices — driven by an artificial stockpile release — would not advantage the Kingdom, whose outlook was upgraded by Morgan Stanley over its exposure to higher energy prices earlier this week. The bank expected higher oil prices to translate into stronger economic activity and corporate earnings.
LOGISTICS — MSC offers inland alternatives to Hormuz: Global shipping giant MSC has alerted its customers of solutions for inland cargo transport, connecting King Abdullah and Jeddah ports to ports in the Arabian Gulf, it said in a statement. The Dragon and Jade services allow cargoes to bypass the Strait of Hormuz on their way to Asian destinations.
Data point
65 — that’s how many days Saudi Arabia could sustain exports if flows are redirected, or 36 days without redirection, giving it the Gulf’s largest oil storage buffer, Zawya reports, citing a JPMorgan note. Qatar follows with about 20 days, the UAE with 19 days if redirected and 16 days without, and Kuwait with roughly 14 days. Iraq has the smallest cushion at around six days — limited overseas storage capacity has slashed its output to below one-third after the Hormuz Strait closure halted exports.
What this means: Saudi Arabia’s sizable 65-day buffer allows it to fulfill contracts via the Red Sea even during a total Gulf blockade. By contrast, Qatar and the UAE are facing a 20-day “shut-in” clock, and Iraq’s six-day reserve has already triggered a near-total halt of its southern fields.
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The big story abroad
It’s another morning with the front pages all about the US and Israel’s continued campaign against Iran, which saw the most intense night of aerial bombardment on Tuesday. Earlier today, Iran retaliated by launching attacks on central Israel and US military sites in Bahrain.
That said, Washington urged Israel not to launch further strikes on Iranian energy facilities, especially oil infrastructure, three unnamed sources told Axios. The Trump administration reportedly argued that such attacks would harm the Iranian public and jeopardize future US cooperation with Iran’s oil sector post-conflict. Washington also cautioned that these strikes could provoke retaliatory strikes against Gulf allies and their own energy sites.
Meanwhile on Wall Street: Microsoft has cemented its support for Anthropic’s lawsuit against the Pentagon, arguing that moves to punish the AI startup would be detrimental to the broader US tech scene.


