A giga-pause in tender awards

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

A vote of confidence from the IMF

Good morning, friends. The regional war still holds sway as yet another facet of the Kingdom’s economy — its lineup of gigaprojects — falls victim to the resulting jitters, as m-o-m tendering activity sees a marked decline.

And that’s not all: The conflict has prompted Aramco to raise its Arab Light crude premium for its Asian customers by USD 17 a barrel for deliveries scheduled in May. In relative terms, the premium has never exceeded USD 10 a barrel over the past 26 years.

WEATHER- Looks like rain: Najran, Asir, and Jazan are in for a soaking today, while Riyadh, Makkah, Al-Baha, and the Eastern Region get off a little easier with just a sprinkle.

Riyadh: 29°C high / 18°C low;
Jeddah: 31°C high / 24°C low;
Makkah: 37°C high / 25°C low;
Dammam: 27°C high / 18°C low.

Watch this space

MACRO — The GCC can withstand war-related shocks, IMF chief says: Strong institutions and economic diversification will allow Gulf economies to absorb shocks from the US-Iran war, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Asharq Business. That being said, the global lender will “somewhat” lower its growth forecast for GCC nations, she added. Global growth, too, will see a downward revision.

Watch this space: The regional war and its economic impact is expected to dominate discussions among policymakers during the IMF and World Bank’s annual spring meetings, which will kick off on Monday, 13 April.

WAR WATCH — Debris from intercepted missiles lands near energy sites: Saudi Arabia intercepted seven missiles bound for the Eastern Province, with debris falling near energy facilities, according to statements by the Defense Ministry. The ministry said damage assessment was underway without specifying who launched the missiles.

OIL — South Korean envoy to lock in crude supplies in Saudi visit: South Korean presidential chief of staff Kang Hoon-sik is heading to Saudi Arabia to secure crude oil and naphtha supplies, Reuters reports. He kicks off his trip, which will also see him land in Kazakhstan and Oman, later today. Seoul relies on the Strait of Hormuz for over half of its crude imports.

PRIVATIZATION — Development plans for Prince Naif bin Abdulaziz International Airport are moving forward, as Matarat Holding and the National Center for Privatization & PPP (NCP) invite interested firms to submit credentials for the project’s prequalification phase, according to a statement. The tender has attracted 89 bidders — 55 local players and 34 international firms.

ICYMI: Matarat and NCP called for expressions of interest for the project — which includes the design, construction, operation, and maintenance of the facility — earlier this year. The project will be implemented under a build-transfer-operate contract with a concession period of 30 years.

Data point

13% — that’s how much Saudi Arabia’s total revenues are projected to rise in 2026, totalling SAR 1.3 tn, according to a SNB Capital report. The asset manager sees the Kingdom’s economy growing 4.3% this year — down from previous estimates of 4.7%.

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The big story abroad

US-Iran talks haven’t made much headway yet. US President Donald Trump shut down Iran’s 45-day ceasefire proposal, which he criticised for being “not good enough.” Trump warned that every bridge in Iran could be destroyed if a resolution — that reopens the Strait of Hormuz — was not reached by later today. “The entire country can be taken out in one night,” Trump said during a news conference yesterday.

Tehran hit back with a ten-point proposal, which reportedly demands assurances that Iran would not be attacked again, an end to Israeli strikes on Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and the removal of all sanctions, two senior Iranian officials told the New York Times.

Meanwhile, in the world of finance: Global investment bank Goldman Sachs said that the recent exodus of retail investors from private credit has created an opportune moment to invest in the asset class. The firm characterized the trend as a “meaningful shift” which will result in heavier reliance on institutional investors.

Also in the news orbit is Nasa’s latest mission, Artemis II, which has officially reached the farthest point in space ever travelled by humans. Launched earlier this week, the mission took four astronauts around the far side of the moon and they’re now on their way back to Earth.

Iran war causes a Giga-pause in tender awards

The Iran war is filtering into the Kingdom’s gigaprojects market, following a month of significantly reduced tendering activity. Only 25 major contracts worth USD 11.8 bn were awarded in March, down from 80 contracts (USD 26 bn) in February and 84 (USD 20.5 bn) in January, Meed’s head of content and research Ed James said in a webinar attended by EnterpriseAM. While these preliminary figures could be revised, the steep drop points to a sudden pause in awarding activity.

Hesitation at the finish line: Many contracts that were close to signing have been “kicked back a few weeks” as developers and contractors make last-minute reassessments to risk exposure, revisiting key terms around force majeure and pricing, HKA partner Haroon Niazi said.

The slowdown reflects caution rather than a structural pullback. Most projects are still expected to move forward once terms are recalibrated, Niazi said. However, rising ins. costs, tightening coverage, and growing logistics risks mean that prolonged conflict could turn temporary delays into longer-term disruptions.

Beyond the dotted line

Logistics headaches take the cake: Logistics delays are the biggest challenge linked to the conflict, cited by 37% of survey respondents. Niazi points out that the region is entering “uncharted territory” in terms of moving goods. Freight is being diverted mid-journey, long-lead materials face delays, and transport routes are becoming more complex — all driving up costs and slowing execution.

Ins. is becoming a key pressure point. War-related risks are pushing ins. premiums higher, and some coverage is now unavailable. “A number of ins. policies, particularly around logistics, don’t cover situations when there is a conflict,” Niazi said. Insurers are also increasingly reluctant to underwrite long-distance transport — complicating rerouting efforts and further delaying long-lead items.

PLUS- On-site jitters: On-site contractors are also dealing with intermittent stoppages and stricter safety protocols, including temporary demobilisation during security alerts.

Mitigation 101

Records, records, records: To mitigate cost impacts, Niazi advised companies to establish a clear contractual and regulatory strategy early and keep precise, categorized records of delays, disruptions, and increased costs. These records should clearly link cause and effect, rather than lumping costs together. These records should be shared with employers and engineers to document actions and mitigation measures, creating a clear, verifiable basis for claims.

Data centers taking shelter: There’s a growing trend to protect data centers from future conflicts, with plans to build more underground and strengthen power supply contingencies.

How fares the pipeline?

Several major contracts are still up for grabs, mainly in infrastructure, data centers, and the Kingdom’s high-priority developments. Over the next few months, Meed expects awards for Riyadh Metro Line 7, the first phase of the Oxagon data center campus, and the civil and telecom contracts for Q-Express Line 1. It also expects several contracts for various stadiums, King Salman International Airport, Diriyah, and Expo 2030.

Asia faces record premiums from Aramco

The cost of keeping the world's lights on just went up. Saudi Aramco is hiking the price of its flagship Arab Light crude for its Asian customers by USD 17 a barrel for May deliveries. That brings the total premium to an unprecedented USD 19.50 over the Oman-Dubai benchmark.

To put that into perspective: The premium never cracked the USD 10 mark over the past 26 years.

Aramco is aggressively raising prices across the board to record levels, regardless of destination. European buyers will have to shell out a USD 24-30 premium over Brent for Saudi oil next month.

What changed? The widening Middle East war and Iran's near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz snapped the region's traditional oil supply chains. A fifth of the world's oil typically flows through this narrow waterway. The disruption already sent Brent crude up more than 50%, trading at around USD 108 / bbl. A handful of Chinese, Indian, and Omani vessels navigated the strait recently, but the flow of global commerce is still way below its prewar levels.

REMEMBER- Riyadh has redirected the bulk of its shipments to Yanbu, its port on the Red Sea. Saudi and the UAE are practically the only Gulf producers with pipeline infrastructure capable of completely bypassing the strait. The rest of the region's output is mostly stuck.

BUT- Alternative routers are not nearly enough to plug the gap. Aramco is currently maxing out the East-West pipeline, pumping close to 5 mn barrels a day to the west coast. Despite handling record shipments at Yanbu, Saudi only managed to export about 50% of its normal overall oil volumes in March. Opec+ pledged on Sunday to boost production in May, but with the cartel's spare capacity bottlenecked behind the strait, those extra barrels are useless to the broader market.

The squeeze is set to hit Asian refineries the hardest, as they are structurally reliant on the specific sour crude grades the Middle East typically provides.

What comes next: A logistical headache for buyers. Aramco is reportedly now requiring customers to submit separate requests specifying how much oil they want from either port, explicitly noting that it will only supply the Arab Light grade out of Yanbu.

Saudization mandate targets back-office roles — with no exemptions for SMEs

The Ministry of Human Resources expanded its 100% Saudization mandate to cover 69 administrative support professions. The decree, which went into effect on Sunday, applies to every private sector entity operating in the Kingdom that employs one or more workers in these targeted roles.

The timeline: The ministry’s procedural manual splits compliance into two phases, forcing operators to immediately audit their front-line staff while giving them a six-month window to restructure mid-management back-office roles.

The immediate deadline hits the operational front line instantly, targeting positions including cashiers, regular and executive secretaries, data entry clerks, storekeepers, security guards, and interpreters.
The October deadline: Companies have a six-month grace period until 4 October to localize the more specialized professions. This list encompasses heavy-hitting corporate roles, requiring the localization of HR managers, institutional development managers, public relations directors, recruitment specialists, and general administrative assistants.

Why it matters: The expansion eliminates the small office blind spot that foreign rep offices, startups, and lean operators often rely on. If a company has a single administrative assistant or receptionist on the payroll, they must be Saudi. This will require an audit of back-office contracts, as operators can no longer rely on expatriate labor for basic organizational infrastructure.

What’s next?

Enforcement will be heavily automated, with ministry systems cross-referencing social insurance data and professional accreditations to detect non-compliance or attempts to disguise administrative roles under different job titles.

The cost mitigation strategy: Replacing expatriate back-office staff with Saudi nationals will likely trigger an immediate wage premium, making the Human Resources Development Fund (Hadaf) the critical pressure valve for operators. Hadaf — which poured SAR 8.3 bn into private-sector wage subsidies and training in 2025 — will subsidize a portion of new Saudi hires' salaries for up to two years. The April mandate will likely trigger a massive influx of new applications, with SMEs already making up 94% of the fund’s beneficiaries last year.

Aramco Ventures backs Via Separations

Aramco Ventures participated in a USD 36 mn round for US-based industrial separations player Via Separations, according to a press release. The funding will go toward scaling the startup’s modular filtration platform — as applied to pulp and paper — into the refining and chemicals sectors, improving efficiency and cutting emissions. Other backers include Embark Ventures, The Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment, Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, and Safar Partners.

What they said: “Via Separations’ modular platform addresses a critical step in industrial processing and has strong potential to enhance efficiency and unlock additional capacity within existing refining and chemical assets,” Aramco Ventures Senior Investment Director Tibor Toth said.

Global private equity activity slows down due to AI-related risks, geopolitical tensions

Global private equity’s nascent recovery has been stalled by a double-whammy of geopolitical conflict and technological anxiety. After 2025 closed out the year on notes of recovery and optimism, the first quarter of 2026 showed a sharp reversal in momentum.

By the numbers: Globally, 1Q 2026 buyout activity fell to USD 172 bn (down 36% q-o-q; 8% y-o-y), while exits dropped 33% q-o-q to USD 162 bn, the Financial Times reports, citing data from Dealogic. The industry is choking on a backlog of pre-2022 investments that have been difficult to exit or refinance amid high rates and geopolitical shocks. Consequently, fundraising remains dry. The USD 86 bn raised in 1Q 2026 falls just under the lackluster pace of the same period in 2025 — the sector's weakest year since 2018.

Behind the slowdown

The war in the Gulf isn’t helping: Several buyout firms paused signings altogether due to the heightened volatility from the war, with executives warning that the full economic fallout from the conflict has yet to materialise.

The biggest blow has been to the software sector: Traditionally, the safest and most lucrative wager for private equity, AI is now being approached with more caution. Investors fear that agentic AI — AI that can perform complex tasks autonomously — will cannibalize existing software business models. As such, many firms have adopted a “wait and see” approach, holding off on deploying capital into software until they can identify which companies are resilient to AI disruption.

Looking ahead

This AI reluctance could skew gains toward the few: BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s latest annual letter argued that the companies best positioned to use AI — those with the right data, infrastructure, and capital — will reap most of the benefits, leaving others behind and deepening the wealth gap between those that can invest in the technology and those that want to but lack the resources.

Our take: The steady revenue models that drove SaaS buyout over the past few years are now being called into question as AI starts to challenge traditional software pricing. That uncertainty is creating gaps in the market — gaps that well-capitalized GCC investors are well placed to step into, particularly as they look to rebound from the impact of the regional conflict.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mostly up in early trading this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei the only exception, having erased earlier gains and trading 0.3% lower. US stock futures are down as well after US President Donald Trump set an 8pm EST deadline for the US and Iran to reach a deal.

TASI	11,263	-0.1% (YTD: +7.4%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,516	0.0% (YTD: +9.3%)
NomuC	22,539	+0.1% (YTD: -3.3%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	47,652	+0.8% (YTD: +13.9%)
ADX	9,625	+0.3% (YTD: -3.7%)
DFM	5,448	-0.7% (YTD: -9.9%)
S&P 500	6,612	+0.4% (YTD: -3.4%)
FTSE 100	10,436	+0.7% (YTD: +5.1%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,693	-0.7% (YTD: -1.7%)
Brent crude	USD 109.77	+0.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.81	-0.1%
Gold	USD 4,685	0.0%
BTC	USD 68,655	-0.5% (YTD: -21.7%)
Sukuk/bond market index	913.52	-0.1% (YTD: -0.6%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	149.14	-0.3% (YTD: -1.8%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	24.17	+1.3% (YTD: +61.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.1% yesterday on turnover of SAR 4.5 bn. The index is up 7.4% YTD.

In the green: SPPC (+5.8%), Teco (+5.6%), and Banan (+5.2%).

In the red: Chubb (-4.2%), First Mills (-4.0%), and Emaar EC (-3.8%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC remained unchanged yesterday on turnover of SAR 22.8 mn. The index is down 3.3% YTD.

In the green: Altwijri (+16.6%), Service Equipment (+10.0%), and Smile Care (+9.2%).

In the red: Itmam (-8.3%), Accelerated Solutions (-6.2%), and Amwaj International (-6.0%).

CALENDAR

APRIL

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Future Aviation Forum, Riyadh.

MAY

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

19-21 May (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid Al Adha holiday.

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

JULY

6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

AUGUST

31 August-3 Sep (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

SEPTEMBER

9-10 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

9-10 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

12-15 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

NOVEMBER

24-28 November (Tuesday-Saturday): Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun, Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
September: Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center;
November: The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah;
SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh;
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh;
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Capital Markets Forum takes place in March in Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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