Saudi economy is “resilient,” IMF says

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: It’s Aramco earnings day

Good morning, wonderful people. We would say it’s not a particularly busy day here in the Kingdom, if it weren’t for earnings season being in full swing — with more to come in the days ahead. Besides the flurry of earnings reports, we lead our news well this morning with the latest IMF Article IV consultations on the Saudi economy, as well as a recap of the Capital Markets Authority’s 2024 annual report.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- Aramco is expected to publish its 1H 2025 earnings today, according to the company’s website. The oil giant is forecasted to post SAR 92.8 bn in net income for the quarter, down from SAR 106.2 bn recorded in the same period last year, according to Argaam.

REFRESHER- The company posted a 4.6% y-o-y drop in net income to SAR 97.5 bn (USD 26 bn) in 1Q 2025, exceeding analyst estimates by some SAR 3.4 bn amid weaker oil prices caused by global economic uncertainty.

Aramco’s earnings come as the oil major’s shares are down 14% YTD, despite Western oil companies’ stock prices rising, closing the premium gap that Aramco previously enjoyed over Western peers, Bloomberg reports. “National oil companies typically trade at discounts to Western integrated oils, Aramco was the exception. The market may be resetting valuations lower to align with those of national oil company peers,” Bloomberg quotes a Morningstar strategist as saying.

#2- The Fiba Asia Cup 2025 is set to kick off today and run through Sunday, 17 August in Jeddah. The tournament will bring together 16 national teams from across the Asia-Oceania region to compete for the title of continental champion. The opening game will see New Zealand compete against Iraq.

WEATHER- Riyadh is expected to see a high of 45°C and a low of 33°C today, while windy Jeddah’s mercury will go as high as 41°C and as low as 32°C. Makkah will see a 43°C high and 35°C low.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Saudi Arabia could be a primary recipient of investments from a new Kuwaiti investment company in the works, which plans to deploy KWD 50 bn (SAR 610 bn) into major regional projects, Aleqtisadiah quotes unnamed Kuwaiti sources as saying. The planned company would act as a sovereign investment arm, financing and operating major projects both inside and outside Kuwait, the sources are quoted as saying.

The details: The company is expected to invest across key sectors including energy, transport, infrastructure, smart cities, and industrial development. It will operate under a special legal structure designed to give it flexibility in cross-border investments. Investments in Saudi Arabia are expected to focus on large-scale ventures in strategic zones like Neom, The Line, and the Eastern Province.

What’s next? The legal and operational framework is being finalized and will be submitted to Kuwait’s Cabinet in the coming weeks.

REMEMBER- The move follows previous reports that the Kuwait Investment Authority was planning to open an office in Saudi to facilitate closer investment and trade ties.

#2- The General Authority for Competition signed off on Al Futtaim Group’s acquisition of a 49.95% stake in Cenomi Retail, the authority said on X yesterday. The two retail giants had inked a share purchase agreement for SAR 2.5 bn (USD 667 mn) last month. In addition to buying the stake from the founding Alhokair family shareholders, Al-Futtaim will provide a SAR 1.3 bn loan to shore up Cenomi’s finances and fund its recovery.

IN CONTEXT- The acquisition is a boon for both sides: It’s a lifeline for Cenomi, which has struggled with losses which resulted in a negative shareholder equity of SAR 991 mn in 1Q 2025, and SAR 5.43 bn in liabilities, outweighing assets of SAR 4.42 bn. It’s also big for Al-Futtaim, which will break into a Saudi retail market that is still in its infancy. Cenomi Retail has leases across the Kingdom and in other markets.

#3- Bahrain’s Investcorp Holdings is mulling selling IT provider Saudi NourNet, amid increasing investor sentiment in the Kingdom’s assets, Bloomberg reports, citing sources it said are in the know. Investcorp tapped HSBC Holdings for the potential transaction, with the sale’s final decision to be made following the ongoing negotiations.

About NourNet: Established in 1998, NourNet provides internet services to over 1.5k corporates across 10 industry verticals in the Kingdom, including managed services, cloud, connectivity, cyber security, and emerging technologies. It also invested in Saudi Arabia’s first truly carrier neutral data center north of Riyadh with a 4.5k-sqm, tier-3 certified facility and a capacity of 450 racks.

DATA POINTS-

#1- GCC countries saw an average inflation rate of 1.7% in 2024, continuing its downward trend from a 3.1% peak recorded in 2022, and bringing the inflation rate back to its 2020 level, a recent report (pdf) by the GCC Statistical Center showed.

Zooming in: The housing sector drove the bulk of the inflation in the region, with a 5.7% increase. Saudi Arabia recorded the highest housing inflation in the GCC at 8.8%. The UAE comes second at a rate of 3.3%, while Kuwait recorded a rate of 1.2%. Oman saw a 0.3% increase, Bahrain 0.2%, while Qatar stood out with a deflation rate of 3.3%.

The other movers: Several other sectors also saw inflationary pressures. Inflation in the restaurants and hotels sector registered a 1.8% increase last year, and the culture and entertainment sector followed with the same rate. Education inflation came at 1.7%, food and beverages with 1.5%, and goods and services with a rate of 1.1%.

Sectors that saw deflation: Average prices were on the decline across healthcare (-0.2%), clothing and footwear (-0.7%), communications (-1.0%), tobacco (-1.1%), furniture (-1.6%), and transportation (-2.0%).

#2- About 97.7% of the Kingdom’s establishments had internet access in 2023, with 57.7% using the internet for social media, and 94.1% of establishments having a business email, according to a report (pdf) from the General Authority for Statistics. The vast majority of establishments, 91.3%, used e-government services, while nearly 49.4% of establishments used cloud computing for off-the-shelf office software, with 65.6% utilizing it for financial or accounting software applications, while 38.8% used it for file storage.

#3- Saudi Arabia’s commercial real estate market maintained positive momentum in 2Q 2025 despite a slowdown in demand growth, according to the 2Q Global Commercial Property Monitor report (pdf) from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). Net tenant demand stood at 23%, a positive but slower rate than 2023 and early 2024 levels, Al Arabiya reported. Meanwhile, investor interest remained strong, with a 43% net increase in investment inquiries. Net supply for property sale also grew 30%, driven by higher asset sales and proactive owner strategies.

#4- Over 230 drilling rigs are operating in the Kingdom for oil and gas exploration, reflecting Saudi Arabia’s oil and gas activity boom, Houston-based Baker Hughes said in a statement on Saturday. This comes after the company stated in its August report that only 69 rigs were active in the country as of July, with 20 for oil — the lowest since February 2005 — and 49 for gas, according to Bloomberg.

Methodology: Baker Hughes only counts “active” rigs, which are currently used in drilling and have not yet reached target depth. It clarified that its standard global rig count does not encompass all operational rigs, excluding those used for production testing, non-rotational drilling, completions or workover rigs, and rigs currently in transit to new locations.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s a thoroughly mixed bag of headlines in the global business press this morning, with everything from the latest tariff threats from Washington against India, to Israel saying it’s coming up with “next steps” on Gaza.

Israel’s security cabinet is set to meet this week “to direct the IDF” on how to achieve the country’s “objectives” on Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said yesterday, referring to Tel Aviv’s goals to wipe out Hamas and rescue the remaining Israeli hostages. Netanyahu’s remarks — which come as the death toll from Israel’s attacks on Gaza surpass 60k — are reportedly being met with some disagreements within his cabinet, as some ministers and military officials see little more to be gained with continued military aggression. (Reuters | Bloomberg)

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump plans to impose “substantially” higher import tariffs on India because of its continued reliance on Russian oil imports. New Delhi — which Trump accused in a post on Truth Social of turning around and selling “much of the oil purchased” from Russia at a margin — is looking unlikely to budge on its current oil purchasing strategy despite the tariff threats. (Reuters | CNN | Financial Times)

Also worth knowing this morning:

Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered the country’s former president Jair Bolsonaro to be placed on house arrest (Axios)
Palantir’s quarterly revenues broke the USD 1 bn mark for the first time in 2Q 2025 (Financial Times | CNBC)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The three-day Global Internet of Things Congress 2025 will kick off at the Arena Riyadh Venue for Exhibitions on 21 October, bringing together 5k attendees, 200 exhibitors, and global speakers. The event, the largest IoT gathering in MENA, will feature keynotes, workshops, exhibitions, and partnership announcements.

Saudi economy is “resilient” and “favorable” -IMF

Saudi Arabia’s economy demonstrated “strong resilience to external shocks,” with a favorable outlook despite global uncertainty and emerging deficits, supported by strong policies and reform momentum, the IMF Executive Board said in a statement yesterday following its annual Article IV consultations.

By the numbers: Non-oil GDP grew 4.5% in 2024, offsetting oil production cuts that pulled oil GDP down by 4.4%, lowering overall growth to 2%. Unemployment also fell to a record low and inflation remained contained, though the current account shifted to a small deficit of 0.5% of GDP, down from a 2.9% surplus in 2023. Meanwhile, the banking sector remains robust, and foreign reserves are ample at USD 415 bn.

REMEMBER- The IMF upgraded Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth forecast by 0.6 percentage points to 3.6% for 2025 and by 0.2 percentage points to 3.9% for 2026 in its latest World Economic Outlook report published last week. The fund also amended its oil price outlook, now expecting a more moderate drop to an average of USD 68.18 per barrel in 2025, followed by a slower decline to USD 64.33 in 2026.

The near-term outlook is vulnerable to downside pressures from weaker oil demand, reduced government spending, and regional instability. However, growth could be boosted by higher oil production, increased Vision 2030 investments, or a rise in oil prices from a stronger global recovery.

But the medium term is more stable, thanks to strong domestic demand from Vision 2030 projects that are expected to keep non-oil growth above 3.5% and accelerate overall real GDP growth to 3.9% by 2026. Inflation is forecasted to remain contained; however, the current account deficit is projected to continue from investment-linked imports and remittance outflows, which will force more external borrowing. Reserve buffers should remain sufficient.

Recommendations for the Kingdom: The IMF Board recommended a countercyclical fiscal policy in the near term, followed by gradual consolidation through tax and subsidy reforms. It praised Saudi Arabia’s strengthened fiscal institutions, transparency, and well-capitalized banking sector, endorsing the currency peg to the USD while emphasizing sustaining Vision 2030 structural reforms to drive diversification and private sector investment regardless of oil prices.

Saudi capital markets extend gains across asset classes in 2024

The value of sukuk and debt instruments listed on Tadawul rose 20% y-o-y to SAR 663.5 bn last year, according to the Capital Market Authority’s (CMA) annual report (pdf). Proceeds from sukuk and debt offerings also climbed 35% y-o-y to SAR 40.4 bn by year-end, of which SAR 39.4 bn were raised through private placements offerings and SAR 1 bn were raised through public offerings.

On the equity side: The CMA approved 60 public offering and share registration applications in 2024, up 36.4% y-o-y. Total IPO proceeds reached over SAR 13 bn from 44 new listings (13 on the main market, 27 on Nomu).

Assets under management (AUM) by CMA-licensed fund and portfolio managers rose 20.9% y-o-y in 2024, surpassing SAR 1 tn. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded an unprecedented 935% jump, reaching SAR 6.7 bn, while venture capital fund assets rose 63% to exceed SAR 4 bn. Funds of funds also expanded sharply, with assets up 126.5% to more than SAR 10 bn.

The CMA signed off on 44 new public funds in 2024, up 51% y-o-y, as the market continued to diversify. The approvals covered 15 equity funds, seven endowment (Waqf) funds, five money market funds, five funds of funds, four ETFs, and two each of multi-asset and closed-end investment traded funds. Rounding out the list were one sukuk and debt fund, one capital-protected fund, one closed-end REIT, and one feeder fund. Investor appetite was on the rise, with subscribers to public and private investment funds climbing 47% to 1.7 mn by year-end.

New players in the game: The CMA licensed 25 new capital market institutions last year, bringing the total to 186 in 2024. Revenues across these firms climbed 29.6% to SAR 17 bn, while their combined net income jumped 39.3% to SAR 8.8 bn.

The regulator also expanded its fintech sandbox, granting four new permits, including models for fund distribution, robo-advisory, debt offerings, and social trading, bringing the total number of experimental fintech models to 46 by the end of 2024.

Acwa Power tapped for two solar photovoltaic projects in Morocco

Acwa Power was awarded the contracts for Morocco’s Noor Midelt 2 and 3 solar photovoltaic projects, Meed reports. Each plant has a capacity of 400 MW with a combined capacity of 602 MWh of battery energy storage systems (BESS).

What we know: The projects will be built under a build-own-operate (BOO) model and will follow with 30-year power purchase agreements with the Moroccan Agency for Sustainable Energy. They will be designed to enhance grid flexibility and deliver dispatchable power during peak demand, and are expected to offset some 1.2 mn tons of carbon emissions over their lifetimes.

More details: Acwa Power was selected after offering a competitive tariff structure, which included 200 freebattery usage cycles — a key differentiator over rival bids from France’s Engie and EDF, and UAE-based Masdar, Meed adds. For Noor Midelt 3, Acwa Power submitted the lowest levelized cost of electricity, securing both contracts in partnership with local energy firm Nareva.

Acwa has a lot of experience there: The company already has multiple solar projects in Morocco including the Noor I–III and Noor PV I solar plants. The Noor Midelt 2 and 3 projects bring Acwa’s total installed capacity in Morocco to 1.5 GW.

Salasa secures USD 30 mn in series B funding round

E-commerce fulfillment startup Salasa secured USD 30 mn in a series B funding round led by Artal Capital with participation from SVC, Wa’ed Ventures, 500 Global, Alsulaiman Group, and other strategic investors, according to a press release (pdf) published yesterday.

The company will use the funds to transition into a technology-first logistics provider by developing an AI-driven platform for predictive and automated operations. The investment will also fuel Salasa’s expansion by scaling its network of fulfillment centers, darkstores, and bonded zones across Saudi Arabia and the GCC. It should also enhance its cross-border shipping infrastructure to open new markets for its merchants.

About Salasa: Founded in 2017 by Abdulmajeed Alyemni (LinkedIn) and Hasan Alhazmi (LinkedIn), Salasa has shipped over 50 mn products to more than 1k clients, including brands like Noon, Amazon, and Cenomi.

IN OTHER STARTUP NEWS-

RifdFinance secured an undisclosed “strategic” investment from global early-stage VC Antler, according to a press release. Rifd will allocate the investment to continuing its development of its platform for Shariah-compliant securitization of SME receivables. The company will be guided by Antler, while expanding across the Kingdom and MENA. Rifd provides institutional investors with risk-adjusted returns in an untapped asset class.

JIMCO, the VC arm of Abdul Latif Jameel, joined Wuilt’s USD 2 mn funding round to support the Cairo-based e-commerce platform’s expansion into Saudi Arabia and the GCC, according to a press release. Other backers include Flat6Labs, MTF VC, Hub71, Purity Tech, and strategic angels. Wuilt will launch in the UAE in late 2025, with a Saudi and GCC rollout in early 2026.

About Wuilt: Founded in 2019, Wuilt allows businesses and individuals to create online stores without coding. The company recently made its core platform free, pivoting its revenue generating model to value-added services like payments and shipping.

Tawuniya, Ades Holding, Dallah Healthcare, Retal, Jabal Omar report 2Q earnings

TAWUNIYA-

The Company for Cooperative Ins. (Tawuniya) posted SAR 467.4 mn in net income in 2Q 2025, up 1.7% y-o-y, supported by higher ins. results (up 11.2%), improved claims management, and better investment returns (up 12.1%), it said in a disclosure to Tadawul yesterday. The company’s ins. revenue also rose 18.4% y-o-y to SAR 5.2 bn during the quarter, on the back of strong growth across the company’s main sectors and the addition of new clients.

On a 1H basis, net income grew 11.1% y-o-y to SAR 729.1 mn, while ins. revenue was up 17.6% y-o-y to SAR 10.3 bn.

Expansions, expansions: Tawuniya is launching MENA Primary Healthcare, establishing a reins. company, and investing in seven companies within its supply chain, CEO Othman Al Kassabi told Asharq Business.

ADES HOLDING-

Ades Holding’s net income slipped 5.2% y-o-y to SAR 191.7 mn in 2Q 2025, due to higher appreciation ratio and interest expenses, reflecting its expanding fleet, it said in a Tadawul disclosure yesterday. However, revenue inched up 3.5% y-o-y to SAR 1.6 bn, supported by stronger performance from the offshore segment in Egypt, Qatar, India, and Southeast Asia.

On a 1H basis, the company’s bottom line inched down 3.6% y-o-y to SAR 388.4 mn, while its top line dipped a slight 0.3% y-o-y to SAR 3.05 bn.

Of the 13 markets Ades operates in, the Saudi market makes some 60% of the company’s revenue, CEO Mohamed Farouk told Al Arabiya (watch, runtime: 09:01). Meanwhile, contracts in the pipeline amount to SAR 29.7 bn, the highest value ever in Ades’ history, with SAR 4.5 bn of these signed during 1H 2025 alone, and 75% of such transactions are inked with Saudi Aramco.

Dividends: The company’s board greenlit the distribution of SAR 231.2 mn in interim dividends for 1H 2025 at SAR 0.21 apiece, starting 1 September, according to a separate Tadawul disclosure.

DALLAH HEALTHCARE-

Dallah Healthcare saw its net income rise 11.1% y-o-y to SAR 124.3 mn in 2Q 2025, partially due to improved efficiency and operations in its newly acquired hospital in Khobar, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul yesterday. Revenue was also up 38.8% y-o-y up to SAR 1.1 bn, on the back of increased operational capacity and patient numbers, including the acquisition of Al Salam Medical Services Company and Al Ahsa Medical Services Company back in April.

On a 1H basis, the company’s bottom line climbed 21.1% y-o-y to SAR 279.8 mn, while its top line increased 22.3% y-o-y to SAR 1.9 bn.

Dividends: The healthcare provider’s board greenlit the distribution of SAR 50.6 mn in interim dividends for 2Q 2025 at SAR 0.5 per share, according to a separate Tadawul disclosure. Distribution is set for 4 September.

RETAL-

Our friends at Retal Urban Development logged a 5.7% y-o-y decrease in net income to SAR 72.1 mn in 2Q 2025, weighed down by weaker sales and a 71.1% y-o-y rise in SG&A expenses, which was partially offset by SAR 32.7 mn generated from selling some units in a real estate fund, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul yesterday. Revenues rose 5.3% y-o-y to SAR 488.4 mn, driven by a 5.5% y-o-y increase in development contract revenues on the back of higher project completion rates.

On a 1H basis, the company’s bottom line inched up 2.7% y-o-y to SAR 145.9 mn, while its top line grew 9.5% y-o-y to SAR 1.1 bn.

Dividends: The developer’s board greenlit the distribution of SAR 55 mn in cash dividends for 1H 2025 at SAR 0.11 apiece, starting 9 October, according to a separate Tadawul disclosure. The company is deliberately paying out less than its usual 80% of net income in order to strategically reinvest net income for long-term expansion, Executive Director Ammar Al Ghoul told Al Arabiya, adding that this decision is not a reflection of poor performance.

JABAL OMAR DEVELOPMENT-

Jabal Omar Development Company fell to the red with SAR 42.1 mn in net loss in 2Q 2025, compared to SAR 33.3 mn in net income during the same quarter last year, it said in a Tadawul disclosure. The fallout was due to a decline in hotel revenues and the recognition of a SAR 106 property impairment, which were partially offset by lower finance expenses and a reversal of a zakat provision. Revenue also declined 19.7% y-o-y to SAR 501.7 mn.

On a 1H basis, the company recorded SAR 903.9 mn net income, compared to SAR 52.3 mn over the same period last year. Meanwhile, revenue inched up 2.6% y-o-y to SAR 1.2 bn over the same period.

Brookfield appoints former head of Hassana Saad Alfadly as Saudi Chairman

Brookfield Asset Management appointed Saad Alfadly as the new chairman of its board of directors in Saudi Arabia, Bloomberg reported yesterday, citing a statement from the company. Alfadly previously served 12 years as the CEO of the USD 320 bn pension fund Hassana Investment. With over 25 years of experience, he has also held senior roles at NCB Capital, Morgan Stanley Saudi Arabia, and the Saudi Central Bank.

Alfadly’s appointment follows earlier reports from Bloomberg in February that he would be stepping down from his position at Hassana on 1 July.

UK police charge man in unprovoked killing of Saudi student

A 21-year-old has been charged with the murder of 20-year-old Saudi student Mohammed Algasim in Cambridge in what police described as an “unprovoked” attack, BBC reported yesterday. Algasim, who was in the UK for a 10-week study placement, was attacked and stabbed to death while walking to his accommodation last Friday. He was pronounced dead at the scene. A 50-year-old man has also been arrested on suspicion of assisting the offender and remains in custody. A post-mortem examination is scheduled for today.

The story also got ink in Al Arabiya and The Telegraph.

Dr Sulaiman Al Habib setting up Al Jubail Hospital for SAR 571 mn

HEALTHCARE-

Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group will establish Al Jubail Hospital for SAR 571 mn, under a 50-year lease agreement signed with the Royal Commission for Jubail and Yanbu for a 115.5k sqm plot of land at Jubail Industrial City, it said in a Tadawul disclosure yesterday. The hospital will have 145 beds and clinics in various medical specialties.

The timeline: Following regulatory approvals, the project is expected to kick off construction in 4Q 2025. It is set to be completed in 4Q 2028 and be operational in 2Q 2029. Al Jubail Hospital will be run by Al Habib’s subsidiary Bawabat Al Sharq for Healthcare Company, after receiving the board’s green light.

FINANCIAL SERVICES-

Wasl receives Sama’s initial approval for digital brokerage practice: Wasl platform, a JV between Azm for Communications and Information Technology and National Housing Company (NHC), received the Saudi Central Bank’s (Sama) initial approval to conduct digital brokerage activities in the Kingdom, Azm said in a Tadawul disclosure yesterday. The platform is yet to obtain its license.

BACKGROUND- Azm signed an MoU with the NHC in May to create a digital platform for financial and digital brokerage services, namely Wasl Platform for Communications and Information Technology, according to a separate Tadwul disclosure. Each side will hold a 50% stake in the platform’s capital.

DEBT WATCH-

Quara Finance secured a five-year, shariah-compliant credit facility agreement for SAR 100 mn with Bank Aljazira, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul yesterday. The financing will go to supporting Quara’s operational expansion and increasing its sales volume. The agreement is secured by a promissory note, assignment of receivables, and guarantees from the owners.

ICYMI- Quara secured a four-year, SAR 100 mn shariah-compliant credit facility from Al Rajhi Bank last month and a three-year loan from SHL Finance a month earlier. Both aim to increase the company’s sales volumes.

HOSPITALITY-

#1- PIF subsidiary Adeera Hospitality will operate a portfolio of hotels in Qiddiya City under an agreement with Qiddiya Investment Company, the PIF company said in a statement yesterday. Positioned as the Kingdom's emerging capital for entertainment, sports, and culture, Qiddiya City is projected to attract mns of visitors every year. The hotels that will be under Adeera’s purview include Alia (luxury), Sama (five-star), and Noor (mid-market).

#2-Thai hotel operator Dusit International tapped Al Ghadeer Group to manage the new DusitD2 Al Ahsa resort, Dusit’s EMEA VP of Development Rami Massoud said on LinkedIn. The resort, set to open in 2027, will feature 120 villa suites and is being designed by Cairo-based El Ghoneimi Architects. This marks Dusit’s second confirmed hotel in the Kingdom and is part of its broader expansion strategy in the Middle East.

TRANSPORT-

Hyundai Motor Group and Neom’s energy arm Enowa have completed a hydrogen mobility trial in Trojena, operating Hyundai’s Universe hydrogen fuel cell bus on steep, high-altitude routes, according to a press release. Supported by a new Enowa hydrogen refueling station, the trial marked the first test of such technology in mountain terrain.

Background: In September 2024, Hyundai Motor Group signed an MoU with Neom’s mobility sector to explore next-generation zero-emission mobility solutions for the region.

US tariffs are pushing Chinese manufacturers to consider repatriating offshore production

Trump promised to bring back manufacturing to the US, but it seems like China may be the one leading the push to onshore production. With the Trump administration’s decision to impose new tariffs on more than 90 countries starting 7 August, Chinese manufacturers are finding that the logic of offshoring production to avoid long-standing China tariffs — including from previous US administrations — may no longer make financial sense, the Financial Times reports.

Chinese factories abroad now face incoming US tariffs — some of which are higher than those imposed on China. The “China plus one” strategy had seen Chinese companies — often with state support — invest bns in opening up shop abroad in nearby countries to circumvent US trade restrictions and tariffs, which came to a crescendo under Trump’s first term. But with China now facing a much less severe 30% tariff — down from 145% — it makes little sense to stay in countries with higher tariff rates like Laos and Myanmar.

The impact may be felt further afield, possibly here in the MENA region. In addition to countries like Iraq facing significantly higher tariffs from China, all countries face a 40% tariff on goods understood to be transhipped from China to the US via a third country. The problem is that what qualifies as transhipped goods is not completely clear, with Chinese factories abroad that use inputs from China for production potentially falling prey to the rule. While many Chinese companies with existing operations here may stay put to wait and see, the move by the US will certainly weigh on Chinese investor sentiment for investments abroad.

But some think the move could also push Chinese companies to seek low-tariff markets outside of Southeast Asia, which is good news for countries in the region assigned the US’ baseline 10% tariff like the UAE, KSA, and Egypt. While some companies may move production back to China, others “will seek new manufacturing bases further afield,” according to Oxford Economics Asia economist Louise Loo.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

It’s another morning with Asian markets in the green — South Korea’s Kospi is looking at gains of 1.5%, Japan’s Nikkei is up 0.6%, and the Shanghai Composite is up 0.4%. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng is in the red, down 0.2%.

TASI	10,839	+0.1% (YTD: -10.0%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,397	-0.1% (YTD: -7.4%)
NomuC	26,891	+0.5% (YTD: -14.6%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	5.0% repo	4.5% reverse repo
EGX30	3,549	+1.1% (YTD: +15.0%)
ADX	10,299	-0.2% (YTD: +9.3%)
DFM	6,126	+0.2% (YTD: +18.7%)
S&P 500	6,330	+1.5% (YTD: +7.6%)
FTSE 100	9,128	+0.7% (YTD: +11.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,242	+1.5% (YTD: +7.1%)
Brent crude	USD 68.62	-1.5%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.93	-4.9%
Gold	USD 3,426	+0.8%
BTC	USD 115,310	+1.0% (YTD: +23.2%)
Sukuk/bond market index	911.32	-0.2% (YTD: +1.0%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	147.17	+0.2% (YTD: +5.2%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	17.52	-14.0% (YTD: +1.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.1% yesterday on turnover of SAR 4.9 bn. The index is down 10.0% YTD.

In the green: Teco (+9.6%), Sico Saudi Reit (+7.6%) and Takween (+6.6%).

In the red: Nice One (-10.0%), Thimar (-5.8%) and Al Etihad (-5.6%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.5% yesterday on turnover of SAR 21.5 mn. The index is down 14.6% YTD.

In the green: Osool and Bakheet (+9.3%), UFG (+8.6%) and Fadeco (+6.4%).

In the red: Naf (-10.3%), Horizon Educational (-9.3%) and Paper Home (-7.0%).

CALENDAR

AUGUST

7 July-24 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

5 August (Tuesday): Saudi Aramco to publish 2Q 2025 earnings.

5-17 August (Tuesday-Sunday): 2025 Fiba Asia Cup, Jeddah.

7 August (Thursday): Deadline for institutional investors to book a minimum of 50k shares and a maximum of roughly 800k shares each in Marketing Home Group IPO.

11-12 August (Monday-Tuesday): Monsha’at’s Jadeer Tour in Khobar, SME Support Center, Khobar.

19-20 August (Tuesday-Wednesday): Marketing Home Group IPO retail subscription period for investors to request 10k-250k shares each.

24 August (Sunday): Final allocations are due for Marketing Home Group IPO.

3Q 2025

The National Water Company is expected to award a construction contract for the Hail Region Water Networks project.

SEPTEMBER

3-4 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Sustainable Maritime Industry Conference (SMIC), Ritz-Cartlon, Jeddah.

9-11 September (Tuesday-Thursday): International Beauty Expo 2025, Jeddah Superdome.

9-11 September (Tuesday-Thursday): Seredo Real Estate Development and Ownership Exhibition, Jeddah Superdome,

15-17 September (Monday-Wednesday): Money 20/20 Middle East, Riyadh.

17-18 September (Wednesday-Thursday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

23 September (Tuesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

1 October (Wednesday): Electronic salary transfer via the Musaned platform to include employers with two or more domestic workers.

1-3 October (Wednesday-Friday): Saudi Green Building Forum, Riyadh.

1-3 October (Wednesday-Friday): FIBO Arabia 2025, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center.

7-8 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global EV & Mobility Technology (GEMTECH) Forum, Riyadh.

15 October (Wednesday): Russian-Arab Summit.

17 October (Friday): Saudization for private healthcare roles enters its second phase.

21-23 October (Tuesday-Thurday): Global Internet of Things Congress 2025 (GIoTC 2025), the Arena Venue, Riyadh.

22-23 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Private Capital Forum, Riyadh.

24 October-1 November (Friday-Saturday): AlUla Wellness Festival.

26-27 October (Sunday-Monday): The Global Proptech Summit 2025, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah, Riyadh.

27-30 October (Monday-Thursday): Global Health Exhibition, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Center, Riyadh.

28-30 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Investment Initiative (FII9), King Abdulaziz International Conference Center (KAICC) and the Ritz-Carlton, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

2 November (Sunday): Naming ASICS Innovation Pitch competition’s six finalists.

3-9 November (Monday- Sunday): WTA Tour Finals, Riyadh.

8-9 November (Saturday-Sunday): Del Monte Superleague Supercup, Jeddah.

11-13 November (Tuesday-Thursday): TouriseSummit, Riyadh.

17-20 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre, Riyadh.

22 November (Saturday): The Ring IV, ANB arena, Riyadh.

23-26 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday): The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday): Metropolis Madinah Conference for civilizational capitals, King Salman International Convention Centre (KSICC), Al Madinah.

27-30 November (Thursday-Sunday): World Rally Championship Saudi Arabia 2025, Jeddah.

28-30 November (Friday-Sunday): UIM F1H2O World Championship, Jeddah.

30 November (Sunday): Zatca 21st E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

DECEMBER

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): International Conference on Nuclear and Radiological Emergencies, Riyadh.

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): 61st ISOCARP World Planning Congress, Riyadh.

7-9 December (Sunday-Tuesday): CoMotion Global 2025, Riyadh.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

25-27 December (Saturday-Monday): The Fortune Global Forum 2025, Riyadh.

31 December (Wednesday): Zatca 22nd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

31 December (Wednesday): Cancellation of Fines and Exemption of Financial Penalties Initiative by the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (Zatca) deadline.

December: Made in Saudi exhibition, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh

2026

JANUARY

1 January (Thursday): Electronic salary transfer via the Musaned platform becomes mandatory for all domestic workers in the Kingdom.

13-15 January (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Minerals Forum, King Abdul Aziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

20 January (Tuesday): SuperReturn Saudi Arabia, Hotel Fairmont, Riyadh.

18-21 January (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Hospital Design and Build Expo, Riyadh.

26-27 (Monday-Tuesday): GPRC Summit, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Franchise Expo (SFE), Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): Real Estate Future Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

27-28 (Tuesday-Wednesday): SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh.

28 (Wednesday): Data Center Nation Riyadh, Riyadh.

28-30 (Wednesday-Friday): Jeddah International Travel and Tourism Exhibition (JTTX), Jeddah.

FEBRUARY

2-4 (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Media Forum, Riyadh.

2-4 (Monday-Wednesday): Women Leaders Summit and Awards KSA, Riyadh.

3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday): RLC Global Forum Annual Meeting, Riyadh.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh.

11 (Wednesday) Digital Transformation Summit Saudi Arabia (DTS), Riyadh.

11-14 (Wednesday-Saturday): JeddaDerm, Jeddah.

13-14 February (Friday-Saturday): Jeddah E-Prix 2026, Jeddah.

MARCH

31 March (Tuesday): Zatca’s 23rd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

APRIL

27-29 April (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

OCTOBER

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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