Good morning. Today’s issue is a mixed bag of good and not-so-good news. The banking sector is staying healthy, according to Sama’s latest monthly bulletin, while real estate prices are finally cooling down in 2Q with the residential sector logging very modest increases and Riyadh seeing the lowest y-o-y rate since 2022 started.
The not-so-good news: Tadawul has lagged behind regional and global markets in July, and Sabic posted its third quarterly loss in a row against analyst expectations. Let’s dive in.
WEATHER- It’s both hot and windy in the Kingdom today, with Riyadh expected to see a high of 44°C and a low of 31°C, while Jeddah’s mercury will go as high as 40°C and as low as 31°C. Makkah will see a 42°C high and 32°C low.
HAPPENING TOMORROW-
#1- Aramco is expected to publish its 1H 2025 earnings tomorrow, according to the company’s website. The oil giant is forecasted to post SAR 92.8 bn in net income for the quarter, down from SAR 106.2 bn recorded in the same period last year, according to Argaam.
REFRESHER- The company posted a 4.6% y-o-y drop in net income to SAR 97.5 bn (USD 26 bn) in 1Q 2025, exceeding analyst estimates by some SAR 3.4 bn amid weaker oil prices caused by global economic uncertainty.
#2- The Fiba AsiaCup 2025 is set to kick off tomorrow and run through Sunday, 17 August in Jeddah. The tournament will bring together 16 national teams from across the Asia-Oceania region to compete for the title of continental champion.The opening game will see New Zealand compete against Iraq.
OIL WATCH-
Another hike: Opec+ has approved an oil production increase of 547k barrels per day for September, concluding a phase of its supply restoration strategy one year ahead of schedule, according to a press release. The hike completes a gradual reverse of the bloc’s 2.2 mn bpd cut instituted in 2023, bringing Saudi Arabia’s quota to 9.75 mn bbl/d.
The unwinding started back in April, when eight of Opec+’s producers agreed to hike production by 411k barrels a day, citing “continuing healthy market fundamentals and the positive market outlook” as the reasoning behind its decision.
A lot to gain: Opec+ will likely benefit from its decision to prioritize market share over price stability, despite initial economic strain. Members are hoping to claw back market share ceded to US shale and other competitors, as oil supply growth from non-Opec producers is expected to slow by over 80% through 2027.
More in the bag: The group is still holding onto some 1.65 mn bbl/d per day from eight member countries, and an additional 2 mn bbl/d reduction across the entire alliance, Reuters reports. Both measures are scheduled to expire by the close of 2026.
Market reax: Oil prices slipped on the news, with Brent Crude futures falling to USD 69.24. Prices could drop to around USD 60 per barrel by year-end due to a market surplus, Bloomberg reports, citing estimates by JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. This could force Opec+ to reverse production hikes and resume output cuts to ease price pressure, energy consultancy FGE said.
What’s next? The cartel meets next on 7 September to discuss its policy for October.
WATCH THIS SPACE-
New subscription fee guidelines for shared property owners in the Kingdom: The Real Estate General Authority has set guidelines for owners’ associations in shared properties, Asharq Business reports. The authority introduced an annual fee per unit capped at 7% of market value for units under SAR 300k, and 3% for those above.
The fee will cover management, maintenance, utilities, and salaries. Associations can also receive funding from donations, endowments, special collections, and returns on common facilities.
The guideline joins a battery of reforms pushed recently to stimulate the real estate market. The changes allowed non-Saudis to own property and foreign investment in Makkah- and Madinah-based real estate companies, lifted development restrictions on 81 sq km of land in northern Riyadh, and saw amendments to the White Land Tax law, in addition to planning the release of 10k-40k affordable residential plots per year.
DATA POINTS-
Over 54k Saudi families benefited from the Kingdom’s subsidized housing programs during 1H 2025, the Municipalities and Housing Ministry said in a statement yesterday. More than 48k families settled into their new residences over this period.
The breakdown: The Subsidized Real Estate Financing program for low-income individuals concluded over 27k financing transactions, exceeding its 1H aim by 63%. Nearly 3.8k families receiving social security benefits were assisted through different developmental housing initiatives. The beneficiary satisfaction rate reached 90%, surpassing the annual target of 80%.
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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-
It’s a (very) calm morning in the international press, dominated by concerns over Trump’s erratic response to jobs data, and what comes next in the Gaza war.
Defending Trump: National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said the president’s firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner Erika McEntarfer is justified after the BLS made “extreme” downward revisions to job report data from May and June. Trump “wants his own people there” to make the data “more transparent and more reliable,” Hasset added.
Are revisions uncommon? US job data have been known to undergo revisions later, as some businesses do not file data before the reporting deadline, making the estimate more precise as time goes by.
OVER IN GAZA- The US and Israel appear to be shifting their approach towards an “all ornothing” agreement to end the war in Gaza, US envoy Steve Witkoff signaled in a meeting with families of Israeli captives on Friday. While Witkoff stopped short on providing more details, the shift could be motivated by mounting international pressure over the humanitarian situation in Gaza and calls for recognizing a Palestinian state.
Israel has been trying to secure a partial agreement for months, but Hamas insists on a comprehensive agreement that answers next-day questions, including governance in the enclave and the establishment of a Palestinian state. Arab states — along with the EU and 17 more countries — have called on the militant group last week to disarm and relinquish power to the Palestinian Authority “in the context of ending the war.”

In the third issue of our Destination Sahel series, we’re taking a look at how Sahel could become a year-round destination, the architecture underpinning new developments, and the impact of coastal cities on our shores.
Look for Destination Sahel, Issue III, in your inbox this Wednesday, 6 August.
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