Good morning. Our issue this morning is setting up a happy ending for July with a healthy dose of good news. The IMF has revised growth forecasts up for us (and the world’s economy), citing lower-than-expected tariffs and a weaker USD. Dar Al Majed’s IPO was also reportedly sold out in minutes, signaling the strong demand for the Kingdom’s listings is not waning just yet.

ALSO- Acwa Power tapped Tecnicas Reunidas, Sinopec Guangzhou for designing Saudi Arabia’s second green hydrogen plant, the Eastern Province is planning a SAR 650 mn Global City in Dammam, Foodtech startup Calo closed a USD 39 mn Series B extension round, and SRMG Media Solutions tapped Nedaa Al Mubarak as CEO. Let’s dive in.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The US Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee wraps up its two-day meeting today, which analysts expect will see the Fed staying the course and hold rates steady despite continued pressure from US President Donald Trump. The Fed is broadly expected to gradually begin reducing interest rates starting in September.

THE HOMETOWN ANGLE- Considering Saudi Arabia’s monetary policy typically moves in line with the Fed, a rate cut could whet investor appetite for debt instruments, particularly longer-term instruments, “as benchmark yields decline and opportunity costs decrease,” United Securities international broker Ashraf Jarrar told EnterpriseAM. “This would support the valuations of issuances and open greater appetite for new corporate issuances,” Jarrar said. Meanwhile, on the equity side, lower interest rates could give a shot in the arm to real estate and consumer equities, Jarrar said, although this impact “will be uneven due to local factors.” If rates remain unchanged, liquidity flowing into emerging markets like Saudi Arabia could be restricted, and investors could be more biased towards short-term fixed-income instruments as a safe haven, he told us.

WEATHER- Temperatures in Riyadh are set to soar to a scorching 45°C before easing to a warm 30°C as night settles in. Jeddah will ride a humid coastal breeze, peaking at 40°C and dipping to a cooler 32°C by evening. In Makkah, expect a high of 41°C and a low of 33°C, with a chance of showers offering brief relief from the heat.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

Local sports tech startups have until tomorrow to register for the ASICS InnovationPitch competition, which offers a prize pool of SAR 35k for the top three winners. The competition is launched in partnership with the Saudi Sports for All Federation following a three-year partnership agreement signed with ASICS Ventures back in January.

PSAs-

Riyadh’s new Infrastructure Projects Code (pdf) will come into effect on Thursday, 7 August, covering the entire 400k sq km region — including the capital and its 22 governorates — the Riyadh Infrastructure Projects Center said on X.

About the code: The first of its kind in the region, the code applies to all stakeholders and governs the full infrastructure lifecycle — from planning to maintenance — with standards for roads, sensitive areas, and underground services. It also introduces performance indicators to track safety, environmental issues, timelines, and stakeholder satisfaction.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Al Rajhi Capital expects the Kingdom’s oil revenues to drop 16% y-o-y in 2Q 2025, as crude prices reached an average of USD 65.2 per barrel and production levels hit 9.18 mn bbl / d, Trade Arabia reports, citing a report by the investment bank. The Kingdom is also projected to see its adjusted crude income fall 17% y-o-y during the quarter to SAR 88.5 bn, with upstream earnings set to be hit by weaker prices, partly offset by stronger refining margins.

ICYMI- Opec+ agreed earlier this month to raise production by 548k bbl / d in August, up from its previous monthly increments of 411k bbl / d for May, June, and July.

#2- The global ESG sukuk market is set to surpass USD 60 bn outstanding by the end of 2026, according to Fitch Ratings. The market reached USD 50 bn in 1H 2025, up 12% y-o-y, with the GCC accounting for more than half of this and the UAE and Saudi Arabia being responsible for the majority of outstanding issuances within the GCC.

The outlook for the rest of the year: Fitch expects a seasonal slowdown in 3Q before a rebound for the final quarter of this year — in line with trends in the wider sukuk market. Potential headwinds including geopolitical risks, oil price volatility, and greenwashing concerns could affect issuance.

The broader picture: Global sukuk issuance fell 15% y-o-y to USD 101.3 bn during the first six months of this year, according to an S&P Global report. However, foreign currency sukuk saw a 9% uptick to USD 41.4 bn, and the agency expects sukuk to be a major source of financing for countries reliant on oil revenues next year.

#3- City Cement’s acquisition bid for Umm Al Qura halted: The Capital Market Authority (CMA) rejected Tadawul-listed City Cement Company ’s request to publish its offer to acquire 100% of Umm Al Qura Cement via a share swap, according to a disclosure. The authority cited unmet governance requirements, while City Cement said it will consider resubmitting the offer after ensuring regulatory compliance.

REFRESHER- City Cement inked an acquisition implementation agreement in October to acquire 100% of Umm Al Qura Cement via a share swap, offering Umm Al Qura’s shareholders 1.11 new shares in City Cement for each of their shares and valuing Umm Al Qura at SAR 1.1 bn.

DATA POINTS-

#1- The number of car rental contracts issued in the Kingdom hit over 1.6 mn in 2Q 2025, up 19.7% y-o-y, according to the Transport General Authority’s post on X. Riyadh accounted for the largest share of contracts at 32%, followed by Makkah at 23%, and the Eastern Province at 16%.

MEANWHILE- Intercity buses in the Kingdom transported more than 958k passengers in the second quarter, according to a separate post on X. More than 44k trips were recorded during the quarter. Makkah saw the highest passenger volume at 226k, followed by Riyadh with 222k and the Eastern Province with 144k.

#2- The Kingdom now ranks among the world’s top 20 countries in AI talent density, holding 0.4% of the global pool and coming in the 19th place, according to the Global AI Competitiveness Index (pdf) issued by the International Finance Forum and Deep Knowledge Group. The report also highlighted King Abdullah University of Science and Technology’s entry into the world’s top 150 universities for AI talent production — the highest in the Middle East.

SPORTS-

Portugal forward Joao Felix signed a two-year contract with Al Nassr, the club said in a statement yesterday. The 25-year-old joins from Chelsea, where he made a permanent move just last August before being loaned to AC Milan, Al Arabiya reports. Felix will now reunite with Portugal captain Cristiano Ronaldo under the guidance of coach Jorge Jesus.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s relatively calm in the foreign press this morning, as we gear up for a much busier few days heading into the weekend.

What to watch out for: Today’s Fed decision and indicators for future rates decisions; a slew of corporate earnings, including from Meta and Microsoft later today and Apple and Amazon tomorrow; and a potentially big day for markets on Friday, when higher US tariffs are set to take effect.

For now, the story getting the most attention in the foreign press: The US and China have wrapped their trade talks in Stockholm with no agreement in sight yet, though US President Donald Trump said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent felt “good” about the talks. Trump would have to give final approval on any agreement, Bessent confirmed. The 90-day pause on tariffs is set to expire on 12 August, after which Chinese exports could be subject to up to a 125% tariff — as floated by Trump earlier in the year. (Bloomberg | CNBC | Reuters | Guardian)

Speaking of tariffs: Procter & Gamble is forecasting a USD 1 bn hit on the back of US tariffs, and said it would hike prices “moderately” in the US as part of its long-term strategy. (Financial Times)

Also getting ink: AI firm Anthropic is eyeing a USD 170 bn valuation with a USD 5 bn new funding round set to be led by Iconiq Capital, with potential investments from the the Qatar Investment Authority and Singapore’s sovereign fund GIC. This comes shortly after a note to staff from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said he’s looking towards the region for funding despite still holding it in contempt. (Bloomberg | CNBC)

ALSO- The UK said it would recognize Palestine if Israel does not end the war by September, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said yesterday, following in the footsteps of French President Emmanuel Macron, who said France will recognize the Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September. (DW | BBC | NPR)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

TheSeredo Real Estate Development and Ownership Exhibition will take place from 9 to 11 September at the Jeddah Superdome, according to a press release. The event will bring together real estate developers, banks, and financial institutions to showcase residential projects and financing offers. Organizers expect over 100k visitors this year, with expanded programming including discussions on smart homes, sustainable building, auctions, and geospatial data’s role in reshaping the sector.

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