IMF raises our growth forecast to 3.6% in 2025

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: The Fed to decide on interest rates today

Good morning. Our issue this morning is setting up a happy ending for July with a healthy dose of good news. The IMF has revised growth forecasts up for us (and the world’s economy), citing lower-than-expected tariffs and a weaker USD. Dar Al Majed’s IPO was also reportedly sold out in minutes, signaling the strong demand for the Kingdom’s listings is not waning just yet.

ALSO- Acwa Power tapped Tecnicas Reunidas, Sinopec Guangzhou for designing Saudi Arabia’s second green hydrogen plant, the Eastern Province is planning a SAR 650 mn Global City in Dammam, Foodtech startup Calo closed a USD 39 mn Series B extension round, and SRMG Media Solutions tapped Nedaa Al Mubarak as CEO. Let’s dive in.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The US Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee wraps up its two-day meeting today, which analysts expect will see the Fed staying the course and hold rates steady despite continued pressure from US President Donald Trump. The Fed is broadly expected to gradually begin reducing interest rates starting in September.

THE HOMETOWN ANGLE- Considering Saudi Arabia’s monetary policy typically moves in line with the Fed, a rate cut could whet investor appetite for debt instruments, particularly longer-term instruments, “as benchmark yields decline and opportunity costs decrease,” United Securities international broker Ashraf Jarrar told EnterpriseAM. “This would support the valuations of issuances and open greater appetite for new corporate issuances,” Jarrar said. Meanwhile, on the equity side, lower interest rates could give a shot in the arm to real estate and consumer equities, Jarrar said, although this impact “will be uneven due to local factors.” If rates remain unchanged, liquidity flowing into emerging markets like Saudi Arabia could be restricted, and investors could be more biased towards short-term fixed-income instruments as a safe haven, he told us.

WEATHER- Temperatures in Riyadh are set to soar to a scorching 45°C before easing to a warm 30°C as night settles in. Jeddah will ride a humid coastal breeze, peaking at 40°C and dipping to a cooler 32°C by evening. In Makkah, expect a high of 41°C and a low of 33°C, with a chance of showers offering brief relief from the heat.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

Local sports tech startups have until tomorrow to register for the ASICS InnovationPitch competition, which offers a prize pool of SAR 35k for the top three winners. The competition is launched in partnership with the Saudi Sports for All Federation following a three-year partnership agreement signed with ASICS Ventures back in January.

PSAs-

Riyadh’s new Infrastructure Projects Code (pdf) will come into effect on Thursday, 7 August, covering the entire 400k sq km region — including the capital and its 22 governorates — the Riyadh Infrastructure Projects Center said on X.

About the code: The first of its kind in the region, the code applies to all stakeholders and governs the full infrastructure lifecycle — from planning to maintenance — with standards for roads, sensitive areas, and underground services. It also introduces performance indicators to track safety, environmental issues, timelines, and stakeholder satisfaction.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Al Rajhi Capital expects the Kingdom’s oil revenues to drop 16% y-o-y in 2Q 2025, as crude prices reached an average of USD 65.2 per barrel and production levels hit 9.18 mn bbl / d, Trade Arabia reports, citing a report by the investment bank. The Kingdom is also projected to see its adjusted crude income fall 17% y-o-y during the quarter to SAR 88.5 bn, with upstream earnings set to be hit by weaker prices, partly offset by stronger refining margins.

ICYMI- Opec+ agreed earlier this month to raise production by 548k bbl / d in August, up from its previous monthly increments of 411k bbl / d for May, June, and July.

#2- The global ESG sukuk market is set to surpass USD 60 bn outstanding by the end of 2026, according to Fitch Ratings. The market reached USD 50 bn in 1H 2025, up 12% y-o-y, with the GCC accounting for more than half of this and the UAE and Saudi Arabia being responsible for the majority of outstanding issuances within the GCC.

The outlook for the rest of the year: Fitch expects a seasonal slowdown in 3Q before a rebound for the final quarter of this year — in line with trends in the wider sukuk market. Potential headwinds including geopolitical risks, oil price volatility, and greenwashing concerns could affect issuance.

The broader picture: Global sukuk issuance fell 15% y-o-y to USD 101.3 bn during the first six months of this year, according to an S&P Global report. However, foreign currency sukuk saw a 9% uptick to USD 41.4 bn, and the agency expects sukuk to be a major source of financing for countries reliant on oil revenues next year.

#3- City Cement’s acquisition bid for Umm Al Qura halted: The Capital Market Authority (CMA) rejected Tadawul-listed City Cement Company ’s request to publish its offer to acquire 100% of Umm Al Qura Cement via a share swap, according to a disclosure. The authority cited unmet governance requirements, while City Cement said it will consider resubmitting the offer after ensuring regulatory compliance.

REFRESHER- City Cement inked an acquisition implementation agreement in October to acquire 100% of Umm Al Qura Cement via a share swap, offering Umm Al Qura’s shareholders 1.11 new shares in City Cement for each of their shares and valuing Umm Al Qura at SAR 1.1 bn.

DATA POINTS-

#1- The number of car rental contracts issued in the Kingdom hit over 1.6 mn in 2Q 2025, up 19.7% y-o-y, according to the Transport General Authority’s post on X. Riyadh accounted for the largest share of contracts at 32%, followed by Makkah at 23%, and the Eastern Province at 16%.

MEANWHILE- Intercity buses in the Kingdom transported more than 958k passengers in the second quarter, according to a separate post on X. More than 44k trips were recorded during the quarter. Makkah saw the highest passenger volume at 226k, followed by Riyadh with 222k and the Eastern Province with 144k.

#2- The Kingdom now ranks among the world’s top 20 countries in AI talent density, holding 0.4% of the global pool and coming in the 19th place, according to the Global AI Competitiveness Index (pdf) issued by the International Finance Forum and Deep Knowledge Group. The report also highlighted King Abdullah University of Science and Technology’s entry into the world’s top 150 universities for AI talent production — the highest in the Middle East.

SPORTS-

Portugal forward Joao Felix signed a two-year contract with Al Nassr, the club said in a statement yesterday. The 25-year-old joins from Chelsea, where he made a permanent move just last August before being loaned to AC Milan, Al Arabiya reports. Felix will now reunite with Portugal captain Cristiano Ronaldo under the guidance of coach Jorge Jesus.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s relatively calm in the foreign press this morning, as we gear up for a much busier few days heading into the weekend.

What to watch out for: Today’s Fed decision and indicators for future rates decisions; a slew of corporate earnings, including from Meta and Microsoft later today and Apple and Amazon tomorrow; and a potentially big day for markets on Friday, when higher US tariffs are set to take effect.

For now, the story getting the most attention in the foreign press: The US and China have wrapped their trade talks in Stockholm with no agreement in sight yet, though US President Donald Trump said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent felt “good” about the talks. Trump would have to give final approval on any agreement, Bessent confirmed. The 90-day pause on tariffs is set to expire on 12 August, after which Chinese exports could be subject to up to a 125% tariff — as floated by Trump earlier in the year. (Bloomberg | CNBC | Reuters | Guardian)

Speaking of tariffs: Procter & Gamble is forecasting a USD 1 bn hit on the back of US tariffs, and said it would hike prices “moderately” in the US as part of its long-term strategy. (Financial Times)

Also getting ink: AI firm Anthropic is eyeing a USD 170 bn valuation with a USD 5 bn new funding round set to be led by Iconiq Capital, with potential investments from the the Qatar Investment Authority and Singapore’s sovereign fund GIC. This comes shortly after a note to staff from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said he’s looking towards the region for funding despite still holding it in contempt. (Bloomberg | CNBC)

ALSO- The UK said it would recognize Palestine if Israel does not end the war by September, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said yesterday, following in the footsteps of French President Emmanuel Macron, who said France will recognize the Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September. (DW | BBC | NPR)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

TheSeredo Real Estate Development and Ownership Exhibition will take place from 9 to 11 September at the Jeddah Superdome, according to a press release. The event will bring together real estate developers, banks, and financial institutions to showcase residential projects and financing offers. Organizers expect over 100k visitors this year, with expanded programming including discussions on smart homes, sustainable building, auctions, and geospatial data’s role in reshaping the sector.

IMF raises Saudi 2025 growth forecast to 3.6%

Finally, an upgrade: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth in 2025 to 3.6%, up 0.6 percentage points from its April projection, the fund said in its World Economic Outlook report (pdf). Growth for 2026 is also expected to rise to 3.9%, revised upwards by 0.2 percentage points.

Region-wide rebound: The MENA region is now expected to grow 3.2% in 2025, up 0.6 percentage points from April forecast. The 2026 outlook remained unchanged at 3.4% in 2026.

Oil prices to drop, but not as sharply as feared: The fund now expects oil prices to fall by 13.9% in 2025 to an average of USD 68.18 / bbl — a more moderate drop than previously anticipated. The decline is set to continue in 2026, though at a slower pace, with prices forecast to fall 5.7% to USD 64.33 per barrel.

REMEMBER- GDP grew 1.3% y-o-y in 2024, exceeding the government’s 0.8% forecast, while 4Q growth hit 4.5% y-o-y GDP, the fastest in two years, supported by oil and non-oil activity. The Finance Ministry expected GDP growth of 4.6% in 2025, 3.5% in 2026, and 4.7% in 2027, fueled by non-oil expansion, job creation, and foreign investment.

Still, challenges lie ahead: Trade policy uncertainty, continued geopolitical tensions, and potential disruptions in energy markets could dampen the outlook. While global financial conditions have eased and oil prices have stabilized for now, any escalation in tariffs or regional conflicts could quickly shift sentiment, the report said.

** We’ve got a rundown of the outlook on the global economy in today’s Planet Finance, below.

Dar Al Majed’s offering sold out in minutes

Dar Al Majed’s IPO saw its institutional tranche fully booked within minutes of opening yesterday, setting the offer price within the SAR 13.5-14 range per share, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. At the top of the range, the share sale could see the property developer raise up to SAR 1.26 bn in proceeds, implying a market cap of SAR 4.2 bn at listing.

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REFRESHER- Dar Al Majed is taking a 30% stake to Tadawul’s main market through a secondary offering of 90 mn existing shares, open to both local and regional investors. Selling shareholders — who will see their combined stake fall to 51% from 73% — will get all the proceeds, excluding SAR 40 mn in IPO-related costs.

What’s next: Institutions have until Monday, 4 August to buy into the offering, with each able to book between 250k and 15 mn shares. Some 20% of the IPO will be open to retail investors between 14 and 18 August, provided there is sufficient demand. Final allocations will take place on Wednesday, 20 August.

Why the rush to market? Dar Al Majed’s IPO adds to a growing roster of real estate firms turning to Tadawul for visibility, fresh capital, and shareholder liquidity, a trend fueled by rising housing demand, tighter bank credit, and expanding project pipelines. Developers also stand to benefit from the Kingdom’s new rules on foreign property investment and broader efforts to raise home ownership under the government’s diversification agenda.

IN CONTEXT- This momentum mirrors that of PIF-backed Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction’s debut, which floated a 9.1% stake in a SAR 2 bn primary offering back in March, what was 1Q’s biggest IPO and the second-largest in the Kingdom year-to-date. More real estate players are waiting in the wings, with Alramz Real Estate recently securing approval to float a 30% stake and Al Othaim Investment preparing to list later this year.

ADVISORS- Saudi Fransi Capital is quarterbacking the transaction as financial advisor, lead manager, underwriter, and bookrunner, while Baker McKenzie is providing counsel. PwC is acting as a financial due diligence advisor, while Colliers is serving as a market consultant.

Receiving agents include our friends at EFG Hermes KSA, along with Al Rajhi Capital, Sab Invest, Alinma Capital, Riyad Capital, Aljazira Capital, Alisthimar Capital, ANB Capital, SNB Capital, Derayah Financial, Yaqeen Capital, Alkhabeer Capital, and Sahm, among others.

ALSO IN THE PIPELINE-

Marketing Home Group was the latest to move beyond receiving the Capital Market Authority’s (CMA) approval;
Meanwhile, IT firm Ejada Systems, which missed its six-month IPO window, is set to resubmit an IPO application to the CMA;
Coldchain manufacturer Consolidated Grunenfelder Saady Holding got the regulators’ all-clear to float a 30% stake on Tadawul;
PIF-backed Saudi Global Ports, Tabreed District Cooling, Medical procurement firm Nupco, Riyad Capital, and BNPL platform Tabby are among companies that tapped banks for potential IPOs;
F&B players Barns, Half Million, Deemah, and Hashi Bashi are said to be sounding out banks for potential debuts on the main market;
Almosafer is preparing for a public listing on Tadawul by late 2025 or early 2026;
PIF-backed CloudKitchens is reportedly eyeing an IPO in the Kingdom or the UAE (or both);
Meal subscription startup Calo is also said to be eyeing an IPO here at home by 2027.

Acwa Power taps Tecnicas Reunidas, Sinopec Guangzhou for designing Saudi Arabia’s second green hydrogen plant

A second green hydrogen plant incoming: Acwa Power is tapping Spain's Tecnicas Reunidas and China’s Sinopec Guangzhou for a front-end engineering design contract for Saudi Arabia's second multi-bn USD green hydrogen plant in Yanbu, Bloomberg reports, citing a trading note by the Spanish firm. The two firms will complete the plant’s design within 10 months before bidding for the construction contract.

About the project: The new plant, which will run on solar and wind power, will have an electrolysis capacity of 4 GW and is expected to produce 400k tons of green hydrogen annually for export markets. Commercial operations are slated for 2030.

Doubling down: The project follows limited commercial traction for Acwa Power’s initial USD 8.5 bn green hydrogen plant at Neom, which is set to start operations in 2027 and aims to produce 219k tons of green hydrogen annually. Acwa, Neom, and Air Products’ JV Neom Green Hydrogen Company are reportedly shifting attention to the local market after a slowdown in securing international buyers.

Plotting ahead: Acwa just completed a SAR 7.1 bn rights issue this week, after the rump offering was 6x oversubscribed, according to a statement. The issuance will grant the company the immediate firepower to continue aggressive expansion, with 75-86% of the proceeds directed toward new projects in the Kingdom, CEO Marco Arcelli told EnterpriseAM Saudi earlier this month.

REMEMBER- The renewables giant inked multiple agreements and MoUs with European partners earlier this month to lay the groundwork for a green hydrogen and renewables export corridor between Saudi Arabia and Europe earlier this month.

Eastern Province is planning a SAR 650 mn Global City in Dammam in partnership with Thai investors

Dammam is getting a SAR 650 mn tourism project: The Eastern Province Municipality is partnering with unnamed Thai investors to develop the Global City in Dammam, a large-scale entertainment and tourism destination with a total planned investment of SAR 650 mn, state news agency SPA reported on Monday. The project’s first phase is valued at SAR 200 mn.

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Project details: The 600k sqm Global Village will feature 16 pavilions — each themed after the culture of a different country — a man-made lake with a floating market, and a 7k-seat open-air amphitheater — expandable to 10k seats. The project will also include a 17k-sqm amusement park and an outdoor skating rink.

This is set to be one of two Global Villages in the Kingdom, along with the 2 mn sqm Expo 2030 site — located around Wadi Al Sulai, north of Riyadh — which will be transformed into a Global Village when the event wraps.

Riyadh-based foodtech Calo closes USD 39 mn Series B extension round, gears up for expansion

Riyadh-based foodtech startup Calo raised USD 39 mn in a Series B extension round, bringing its total Series B funding to USD 64 mn and surpassing its initial target of USD 50 mn, according to a press release. The extension was led by Aljazira Capital, with participation from recurring investors STV, Nuwa Capital, Khwarizmi Ventures, and Al Faisaliah Group, with Oraseya Capital jumping on the bandwagon.

Where will the funds go? Calo plans to use the fresh funds to expand its product line into retail with long-life snacks and frozen meals for retail shelves, CEO Ahmed Alrawi told Bloomberg. Calo also plans to develop an on-demand delivery service — commercial cooking spaces designed for food delivery, which requires establishing ghost kitchens and a logistics network.

More in the works: Calo is expanding its product offerings by introducing new meal segments for athletes and lifestyle customers and launching a new line of healthy consumer packaged goods. The company is also piloting Calo Black, an AI-powered private chef experience to generate personalized menus.

REMEMBER- The subscription-based meal service provider raised USD 25 mn in its initial, oversubscribed series B funding round, which was led by Nuwa Capital in December 2024. The company’s prior funding includes USD 26 mn from local and regional investors like Nama Ventures, 500 Startups, and Vision Ventures. Calo also plans to pursue a Saudi IPO by 2027.

The year so far: The foodtech startup launched in Oman earlier this year, and expanded into the UK in April by acquiring meal-subscription brands Fresh Fitness Food and Detox Kitchen.

About Calo: Founded in 2019 by Ahmed Al Rawi (LinkedIn) and Moayed Al Moayed (LinkedIn), Calo operates in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait. The company now operates more than 10 physical locations across the GCC and says it delivered over 10 mn meals across the region in 2024.

Arabian Drilling, United Carton, and Mouwasat Medical post 2Q earnings

ARABIAN DRILLING-

Arabian Drilling saw its net income drop 65% y-o-y to SAR 7 mn in 2Q 2025, driven by a drop in rig utilization to 79% from 91% in 2Q last year, along with increased finance expenses from higher debt, it said in its earnings release (pdf). Revenue also slipped 8.2% y-o-y to SAR 862 mn during the same period due to a 43.2% decline in the offshore segment, despite 23.7% growth in the land segment.

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On a 1H basis, the company’s bottom line was down 50% y-o-y to SAR 83 mn, while its top line fell 6.9% y-o-y to SAR 1.8 bn.

Looking ahead: For 3Q 2025, Arabian Drilling anticipates a potential revenue decline of up to 10% from 2Q, citing ongoing rig suspensions and market uncertainties. The company expects its strong backlog and cost optimization efforts to streamline operations ahead of a challenging 2H.

Dividends on pause: The company’s board recommended pausing dividends for this year due to rig demand fluctuations, ongoing capital investments in its fleet, and regional expansion plans, it said in a filing to the bourse. The proposal requires shareholders’ approval.

ALSO- Arabian Drilling opened a new branch in the UAE’s Sharjah to serve as a regional base for its GCC and international operations, according to a separate disclosure to Tadawul.

MOUWASAT MEDICAL SERVICES-

Mouwasat Medical Services’ net income increased 22.4% y-o-y to about SAR 187 mn in 2Q 2025, backed by revenue growth, higher income streams, lower impairment provisions, reduced financing costs, and lower Zakat expenses, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul yesterday. Revenue also rose 15.4% y-o-y to SAR 796.4 mn during the quarter, driven by higher outpatient visits, stronger inpatient occupancy, and continued benefits from improved client contracts.

On a 1H basis, the company’s bottom line widened 18.4% y-o-y to SAR 384 mn, while its top line grew 10.4% y-o-y to SAR 1.6 bn.

UNITED CARTON INDUSTRIES CO.-

Tadawul newcomer United Carton Industries Company (UCIC) posted a 71.4% y-o-y drop in net income to SAR 8 mn in 2Q 2025, weighed down by higher raw material costs, particularly paper, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul yesterday. Meanwhile, revenue rose 6.3% y-o-y to SAR 335 mn during the quarter, supported by higher sales volumes in the corrugated and folding carton segments.

On a 1H basis, UCIC’s net income declined 57.4% y-o-y to SAR 26.7 mn, while revenue rose 2.1% y-o-y to SAR 684.8 mn.

SPECIALIZED MEDICAL CO.-

Tadawul newcomer Specialized Medical Co. (SMC) reported a net income of SAR 36.4 mn in 2Q 2025, down 28.6% y-o-y, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The decline was mainly due to the company’s shift away from long-term care services, as well as transition-related costs, including staff retention, pre-opening expenses for new clinics, and one-off charges tied to rebranding and IPO preparation.

Revenue rose 6.6% y-o-y to SAR 380 mn during the quarter, supported by the launch of 21 new outpatient clinics and the ramp-up of 20 clinics opened in 1Q.

On a 1H basis: SMC posted SAR 66 mn in net income for the first six months of 2025, down 34.1% from the same period last year. Meanwhile, revenue rose 4.1% y-o-y to SAR 748.9 mn.

Nedaa Al Mubarak tapped as CEO of SRMG Media Solutions

Media group SRMG appointed Nedaa Al Mubarak (LinkedIn) as CEO of its media sales arm SRMG Media Solutions (SMS), according to a statement. Al Mubarak has served as the managing director of SRMG Think, SRMG's research and advisory subsidiary, since October 2023. Prior to this, she held several advisory roles at the Tourism, Investment, and Economy ministries.

What they said: “With SRMG Media Solutions, we’ve built a future-ready platform that meets the region’s evolving media and advertising needs with precision, creativity, and scale. Nedaa brings the vision, experience, and ambition to accelerate this next chapter,” said Jomana Alrashid, CEO of SRMG.

Launched in April 2025, SMS is the commercial representative for over 30 SRMG brands spanning finance, tech, sports, and culture. These include Asharq News, Arab News, Hia, Sayidaty, Billboard Arabia, Manga Arabia, and Thmanyah, which secured exclusive rights last month to distribute Saudi Pro League content across the region for six seasons through 2031.

ALSO- HSBC has appointed Mohammed Fannouch (LinkedIn) as co-head of capital markets and advisory for the Middle East, North Africa, and Turkey, pending regulatory approvals, according to a press release (pdf). Fannouch is currently the managing director of investment banking advisory at HSBC Saudi Arabia and has over 20 years of experience in the investment banking sector in Saudi Arabia and the wider region. He will continue to be based in Riyadh, and will work alongside UAE’s Samer Deghaili (LinkedIn).

China’s WeRide gets the green light to operate its Robotaxis in Saudi Arabia

AUTOMOTIVE-

WeRide secured an autonomous driving permit, the first in the Kingdom, to operate its Robotaxis nationwide, the Chinese autonomous driving tech firm said in a press release on Monday. The license follows the company’s expansion in May, which allowed it to start testing and deploying its Robotaxis, among other autonomous driving products, in Riyadh and Al Ula. Robotaxi trial operations on Uber are set to begin in the coming months, with full commercial services expected by year-end.

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IN CONTEXT- The Transport General Authority launched the initial 12-month operational phase of Riyadh’s autonomous vehicles project, an initiative that saw the contribution of WeRide among other public and private entities. The self-driving taxis will operate on designated routes with 13 stations, covering seven locations that connect King Khalid International Airport, major highways, and specific city center destinations.

M&A WATCH-

#1- Aictec lands stake in Sign Max: Advance International for Telecommunications and Information Technology (Aictec) finalized an agreement to acquire a 25% stake in Sign Max Advertising Company for SAR 3 mn, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The acquisition will be financed through Aictec’s own resources, as it seeks to expand its presence in the advertising, exhibition, and conference organizing sectors.

BACKGROUND- Aictec and Sign Max received the green light from the General Authority for Competition last week and signed the initial MoU for the move back in June. Crowe Solutions Consulting served as Aictec’s financial advisor for the acquisition.

#2- Kamco Invest’s private equity team acquired an undisclosed stake in Foodics, according to a press release. The investment was part of Foodics’ USD 170 mn Series C funding round back in 2022. Although the investment was completed in 4Q 2024, the final legal and regulatory procedures were concluded recently.

REMEMBER- Local restaurant management and POS solutions provider Foodics plans to invest USD 100 mn in fintech and AI solutions for restaurants. The company has also fully acquired UK-based online ordering solutions provider Solo Venture for an undisclosed fee and invested undisclosed amounts in three startups — AI analytics firm Norma, accounting system platform Add, and F&B supply chain manager Arzaq Plus.

MEDIA-

MBC FZ, an MBC Group unit, was awarded a SAR 541.6 mn service order to provide media services for ARA International Productions (AIP), it said in a Tadawul disclosure yesterday. The one-year agreement will see MBC FZ provide AIP with operational and broadcasting support for radio stations, content production, technical services, marketing, brand development, and management for TV channels and digital platforms. MBC Group’s chairman holds a 50% stake in AIP’s parent company.

TOURISM-

The Tourism Ministry launched Ahluha platform in a bid to assimilate the largest database of beneficiaries of programs and job vacancies in the tourism sector, it said in a post on X. The platform targets to draw national workers, job seekers, tourism facilities operators, and fresh graduates. It will also facilitate direct communication between the ministry and those registered on the platform, state news agency SPA reports.

MANUFACTURING-

NMDC Energy kicked off operations at its new fabrication yard in Ras Al Khair, according to a statement. The 400k sqm facility is equipped to handle both offshore and onshore energy projects, with an estimated production capacity of 40k tons annually. Around 1.8k workers will be relocated from Abu Dhabi to the Kingdom to support project delivery. Work is already underway on nine offshore jackets for Aramco.

REFRESHER- Aramco inked a long-term partnership with NMDC Energy in January, allowing the firm to take part in multiple projects. Within that framework, the NMDC Offshore fabrication yard in Ras Al Khair agreed to offer maritime engineering, equipment, material manufacturing, and fabrication services. The partnership was extended in April to cover additional offshore work, including procurement, installation, and pre-commissioning support in Saudi waters.

LOGISTICS-

AECOM to provide advisory services for SILZ’s integrated zone project in Riyadh: US engineering firm AECOM will serve as a project management consultant for the Special Integrated Logistics Zones Company’s (SILZ) integrated zone project in Riyadh, according to a press release. Under an agreement signed between AECOM and SILZ, AECOM will provide strategic advisory services for the country's first integrated logistics zone that is located near King Khalid International Cargo Village.

Lower-than-expected tariffs and weaker USD prop up IMF’s global growth outlook

The IMF revises global growth forecast upwards: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now forecasts global growth to reach 3.0% in 2025, a 0.2 percentage point upgrade from its previous estimate in April, it said in its latest World Economic Outlook report (pdf). The fund expects growth to slightly accelerate to 3.1% in 2026, revising up its previous estimate by 0.1 percentage point.

Behind the upgrade: The upward revision came on the back of stronger-than-expected front-loading of economic activity by firms and households in anticipation of higher tariffs, the fund said. The revision is also supported by lower average US tariff rates than were initially assumed in April. “At the time of the April forecast we had an effective tariff rate of 24%. We’re now looking at an effective tariff rate of 17%, [...] still much higher than where we were in January,” IMF’s chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told the Financial Times.

A weaker USD had also helped the outlook: The USD is down by some 9% in the year-to-date against a basket of currencies including the EUR and the GBP, mainly due to the trade war and attacks on the Federal Reserve, Gourinchas added.

Major economies saw modest upgrades: The IMF now expects the US to grow 1.9% in 2025, a 0.1 percentage point upgrade from the previous forecast. Meanwhile, Japan’s 2025 growth was revised up by 0.1 percentage point to 0.7%. The fund also upgraded its forecast for Canada’s growth by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6% and for the UK by 0.1 percentage point to 1.2%.

China and India also see stronger outlooks: China’s 2025 outlook got a significant upgrade by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%, reflecting stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of the year and a significant reduction in US-China tariffs. Meanwhile, India’s growth forecast was revised slightly upward to 6.4% for both 2025 and 2026 due to a more benign external environment.

Across the Atlantic: Growth in the Eurozone is now projected at 1.0% in 2025, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points, mainly driven by a strong GDP outturn in Ireland, which was boosted by front-loading of pharma exports to the US. The IMF projects 1.2% growth for the area in 2026, unchanged from April.

Trade distortions cloud the picture: Global trade volumes are now expected to grow 2.6% in 2025, a 0.9 percentage point upgrade from April, due to the front-loading of trade flows ahead of anticipated restrictions. However, this effect is expected to fade, with a "payback" materializing through 2026, leading to a 0.6 percentage point downgrade in the 2026 trade volume forecast, where it’s expected to log 1.9% increase, the fund said.

A hazy horizon: The IMF warns that the outlook is marked by "tenuous resilience amid persistent uncertainty," with risks tilted to the downside. An escalation of protectionist measures could dampen global growth. However, growth prospects could improve if trade negotiations lead to a predictable framework and a decline in tariffs.

The inflation outlook: Global headline inflation is expected to continue its decline over the next two years, falling to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026. This forecast is "virtually unchanged" from the April report. However, the report notes cross-country differences, with inflation projected to remain above target in the US while being more subdued in other big economies.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

It’s another mixed morning for Asian markets, as investors await for updates on US-China trade talks. The Shanghai Composite is up 0.4%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is down 0.5%, and Japan’s Nikkei is unchanged. US investors are also bracing for the Fed’s decision today, leaving Wall Street futures unchanged.

TASI	10,824	-0.6% (YTD: -10.1%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,394	-0.4% (YTD: -7.6%)
NomuC	26,726	-0.2% (YTD: -15.1%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	5.0% repo	4.5% reverse repo
EGX30	34,086	0.0% (YTD: +14.6%)
ADX	10,342	-0.2% (YTD: +9.8%)
DFM	6,178	+0.2% (YTD: +19.8%)
S&P 500	6,371	-0.3% (YTD: +8.3%)
FTSE 100	9,136	+0.6% (YTD: +11.8%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,379	+0.8% (YTD: +9.9%)
Brent crude	USD 72.51	+3.5%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.08	+3.1%
Gold	USD 3,384	0.0%
BTC	USD 117,571	-0.2% (YTD: +25.7%)
Sukuk/bond market index	911.63	-0.2% (YTD: +1.1%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	146.42	+0.2% (YTD: +4.6%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	15.98	+6.3% (YTD: -7.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.6% yesterday on turnover of SAR 4.4 bn. The index is down 10.1% YTD.

In the green: Baan (+8.7%), Amlak (+6.1%) and Maadaniyah (+2.3%).

In the red: Teco (-10.0%), Arabian Drilling (-10.0%) and UCIC (-7.5%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.2% yesterday on turnover of SAR 17.0 mn. The index is down 15.1% YTD.

In the green: Taqat (+9.1%), Aljouf Water (+5.6%) and Almuneef (+5.6%).

In the red: Anmat (-8.4%), Apico (-7.0%) and WSM (-6.5%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Electrical Industries’ board recommended a SAR 140.6 mn dividend payout for 1H 2025 at SAR 0.125 per share, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The distribution date is set for 24 August.

City Cement will distribute SAR 91 mn in interim dividends for 1H 2025 at SAR 0.65 per share, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul yesterday. The distribution starts on 25 August.

Saudi Ceramics will distribute over SAR 49.8 mn in interim dividends for 1H 2025 at SAR 0.50 apiece, starting 2 September, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul yesterday.

Saudi Arabia, France co-host UN conference backing two-state solution

Saudi + France lead peace drive: The Kingdom and France co-hosted a UN ministerial conference in New York on Monday to rally international support for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestanian conflict, the Saudi Gazette reported. The meeting — backed by 125 countries including 50 ministries — aimed to map out steps toward the creation of a Palestinian state and a long-term resolution to the conflict, despite the absence of Israel and the US.

Actionable blueprint: The conference put forth a 15-months roadmap to a sovereign and viable Palestinian state, including establishing a transitional government in Gaza under the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) supervision, full unification of Gaza and the West Bank, and a public Israeli commitment to the two-state solution. Services provided for Palestinian refugees by UNRWA will be handed out to the PA after a just resolution to the refugee crises.

Under the plan, Hamas will hand out all captives to Israel and its arms to the PA, effectively giving up Gaza rule, in accordance with a “one authority, one weapon” policy. The plan also pushes for the adoption of the Arab-led Gaza reconstruction plan, denouncing the use of starvation as a method of warfare by Israel.

The Kingdom’s position remains unchanged: Saudi won’t normalize ties with Israel without the establishment of a Palestinian state, Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan stated during the conference (watch, runtime: 8:30).

Train of recognition on the move: Just days after France announced it will formally recognize Palestine at the UN General Assembly on 21 September, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a similar move if Israel fails to take “substantive” steps to end the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza (watch, runtime: 1:27).

ALSO- Interior Ministry Prince Abdulaziz bin Saud met with his French counterpart Bruno Retailleau in Paris, where the two signed a document to expand security cooperation between their ministries, Saudi Gazette reports. The agreement covers areas such as fighting organized crime, drug trafficking, and money laundering, and aims to boost technical cooperation.

The story also got ink in the Associated Press.

CALENDAR

JULY

8 July-24 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

29-30 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

31 July (Thursday): Deadline for companies with SAR 2.5 mn or more in 2022/2023 revenues to integrate e-invoicing solutions with Fatoora.

31 July (Thursday): Deadline for companies with SAR 40 mn in revenues from goods and services during June and 2Q 2025 to integrate e-invoicing solutions with Fatoora.

31 July (Thursday): Deadline for companies to register for the ASICS Innovation Pitch competition.

AUGUST

3 August (Sunday): Opec+ meeting to decide on production levels for September.

5 August (Tuesday): Saudi Aramco to publish 2Q 2025 earnings.

7 July-24 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

5-17 August (Tuesday-Sunday): 2025 Fiba Asia Cup, Jeddah.

3Q 2025

The National Water Company is expected to award a construction contract for the Hail Region Water Networks project.

SEPTEMBER

3-4 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Sustainable Maritime Industry Conference (SMIC), Ritz-Cartlon, Jeddah.

9-11 September (Tuesday-Thursday): International Beauty Expo 2025, Jeddah Superdome.

15-17 September (Monday-Wednesday): Money 20/20 Middle East, Riyadh.

17-18 September (Wednesday-Thursday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

23 September (Tuesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

1 October (Wednesday): Electronic salary transfer via the Musaned platform to include employers with two or more domestic workers.

1-3 October (Wednesday-Friday): Saudi Green Building Forum, Riyadh.

7-8 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global EV & Mobility Technology (GEMTECH) Forum, Riyadh.

15 October (Wednesday): Russian-Arab Summit.

17 October (Friday): Saudization for private healthcare roles enters its second phase.

22-23 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Private Capital Forum, Riyadh.

24 October-1 November (Friday-Saturday): AlUla Wellness Festival.

26-27 October (Sunday-Monday): The Global Proptech Summit 2025, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah, Riyadh.

27-30 October (Monday-Thursday): Global Health Exhibition, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Center, Riyadh.

28-30 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Investment Initiative (FII9), King Abdulaziz International Conference Center (KAICC) and the Ritz-Carlton, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

2 November (Sunday): Naming ASICS Innovation Pitch competition’s six finalists.

3-9 November (Monday- Sunday): WTA Tour Finals, Riyadh.

8-9 November (Saturday-Sunday): Del Monte Superleague Supercup, Jeddah.

11-13 November (Tuesday-Thursday): TouriseSummit, Riyadh.

17-20 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre, Riyadh.

22 November (Saturday): The Ring IV, ANB arena, Riyadh.

23-26 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday): The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday): Metropolis Madinah Conference for civilizational capitals, King Salman International Convention Centre (KSICC), Al Madinah.

27-30 November (Thursday-Sunday): World Rally Championship Saudi Arabia 2025, Jeddah.

28-30 November (Friday-Sunday): UIM F1H2O World Championship, Jeddah.

30 November (Sunday): Zatca 21st E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

DECEMBER

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): International Conference on Nuclear and Radiological Emergencies, Riyadh.

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): 61st ISOCARP World Planning Congress, Riyadh.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

25-27 December (Saturday-Monday): The Fortune Global Forum 2025, Riyadh.

31 December (Wednesday): Zatca 22nd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

31 December (Wednesday): Cancellation of Fines and Exemption of Financial Penalties Initiative by the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (Zatca) deadline.

December: Made in Saudi exhibition, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh

2026

JANUARY

1 January (Thursday): Electronic salary transfer via the Musaned platform becomes mandatory for all domestic workers in the Kingdom.

13-15 January (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Minerals Forum, King Abdul Aziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

20 January (Tuesday): SuperReturn Saudi Arabia, Hotel Fairmont, Riyadh.

18-21 January (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Hospital Design and Build Expo, Riyadh.

26-27 (Monday-Tuesday): GPRC Summit, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Franchise Expo (SFE), Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): Real Estate Future Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

27-28 (Tuesday-Wednesday): SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh.

28 (Wednesday): Data Center Nation Riyadh, Riyadh.

28-30 (Wednesday-Friday): Jeddah International Travel and Tourism Exhibition (JTTX), Jeddah.

FEBRUARY

2-4 (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Media Forum, Riyadh.

2-4 (Monday-Wednesday): Women Leaders Summit and Awards KSA, Riyadh.

3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday): RLC Global Forum Annual Meeting, Riyadh.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh.

11 (Wednesday) Digital Transformation Summit Saudi Arabia (DTS), Riyadh.

11-14 (Wednesday-Saturday): JeddaDerm, Jeddah.

13-14 February (Friday-Saturday): Jeddah E-Prix 2026, Jeddah.

MARCH

31 March (Tuesday): Zatca’s 23rd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

APRIL

27-29 April (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

OCTOBER

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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