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Sunday, 15 Jun 2025

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Israel-Iran escalation puts Saudi economy at a critical juncture

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Today at a glance

1

ECONOMY

Israel-Iran escalation puts Saudi economy at a critical juncture.
2

DEBT WATCH

SNB to issue USD-denominated tier 2 capital debt instruments.
3

Investment Watch

Dubai-based Stake launches real estate development fund in Saudi.
4

Investment Watch

Over SAR 428 mn in Saudi-Dutch agriculture agreements signed in Amsterdam.
5

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Capital Intelligence affirms Saudi credit rating at AA- with stable outlook.
6

PLANET FINANCE

PE and VC activity in MENA took a hit last year, but momentum looks strong for 2025 -Pitchbook.

Sunday, 15 Jun 2025

What We’re Tracking Today
Economy
Banking
Investment Watch
Investment Watch
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Calendar
1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Saudi-French peace conference postponed after Israel’s attack on Iran

Good morning. The world’s focus is once again firmly on our part of the world as Israel and Iran enter into a dangerous escalation that risks significantly upending the region’s stability. We lead today’s issue with how the war could affect Saudi Arabia and the GCC, and what scenarios could unfold from this unpredictable conflict.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The two-day subscription window for the retail offering of Specialized Medical Company’s (SMC) Tadawul IPO opens today, Tadawul said in a post on X on Thursday. Individual investors can subscribe to a minimum of 10 shares and a maximum of 1 mn each, with the final allocation of shares slated for Tuesday, 24 June.

REFRESHER- The private healthcare provider is taking a 30% stake to market in a secondary offering. The IPO was priced at SAR 25 per share — the top of its indicative range — after its institutional bookbuilding was 65x oversubscribed. The total offering, expected to be the third-largest of the year, will rake in some SAR 1.9 bn, giving SMC a market cap of SAR 6.3 bn at listing.

WEATHER- Riyadh is expected to see a high of 45°C and a low of 30°C today, while Jeddah’s mercury will go as high as 38°C and as low as 29°C. Makkah will see a 45°C high and 31°C low.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

Property developer Asas Makeen’s shares are due to hit Tadawul’s parallel market Nomu tomorrow, according to a Tadawul statement. The company’s shares will be allowed to fluctuate within a 30% band, with a static fluctuation band of 10% on the first three trading days. Starting from the fourth day, shares will be allowed to trade at a 10% volatility as circuit breakers take effect.

REFRESHER: The firm floated a 10% stake in a secondary offering that was 19.5%oversubscribed. Some c. 500k new shares were up for grabs at SAR 80 a piece, giving Asas Makeen a market cap of SAR 800 mn at listing.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Peace conference postponed after Israel’s attack on Iran: The Saudi-French co-chaired UN conference in New York on the two-state solution for Israel and Palestine was postponed following major Israeli military strikes on Iran, according to statements by the French President Emmanuel Macron (watch, runtime: 18:52). The meeting, originally set for 17-20 June, was intended to address post-ceasefire security in Gaza, reconstruction, and establishing a Palestinian state. Bloomberg also had the story.

Logistical hurdles prevent key attendees: Macron said that the Palestinian Authority and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman were unable to travel due to the military escalation.

The conference will be rescheduled as soon as possible, Macron said without specifying a date. He reaffirmed his commitment to achieving a two-state solution and his intention to recognize the state of Palestine alongside a collective international movement to give the decision greater impact.

In the background: The US administration, under President Donald Trump, has actively discouraged global participation in the conference, warning of potential repercussions for countries taking measures against Israel, Reuters reported, citing a diplomatic cable it says it has seen.

ALSO- Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman won’t attend the G7 summit taking place from 15 to 17 June in Kananaskis, Canada, an unnamed senior diplomat told Reuters on Thursday. No reason was given for his absence, but the Crown Prince also skipped last year’s summit in Italy.

ChatGPT-maker OpenAI kicked off discussions with the Public Investment Fund for a USD 40 bn financing round, alongside India’s Reliance Industries and existing Emirati state-owned shareholder MGX, with each potentially funneling hundreds of mns of USD into the AI powerhouse, Reuters reports, citing The Information.

IN CONTEXT- This potential investment is part of a larger effort by OpenAI, led by SoftBank, to secure capital for its advanced model development and its ambitious USD 500 bn Stargate AI infrastructure plan.

Hong Kong-listed Saudi ETF’s assets under management have exceeded USD 1.3 bn after 18 months since listing in 2023, highlighting the increasing interest of GCC Investors in Hong Kong-listed equities and financial products, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) Markets head Gregory Yu told Argaam. HKEX is currently in talks with several Saudi technology and financial services companies over potential or dual listings, Yu added.

REFRESHER- Saudi Arabia’s first investment-grade sukuk ETF debuted in Hong Kong lastmonth. The physically replicated Premia BOCHK Saudi Government Sukuk ETF offered investors direct exposure to government-issued sukuk denominated in SAR or USD, carrying an annual total expense ratio (TER) of 0.35% and an A credit rating.

OIL WATCH-

Oil markets shift from a potential oversupply to a fear of shortage: The Israel-Iran escalation of hostilities sent oil prices up by as much as 13% on Friday midday before settling up 7% — the largest daily hike since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Reuters reported (here and here).

The rapid price increase is partly because the spare oil production capacity held by Opec and its allies is only about equal to Iran’s total output, raising concerns about the ability to cover a significant supply disruption, the newswire cited analysts and Opec watchers as saying.

Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have the immediate capacity to increase oil production, collectively able to add about 3.5 mn bbl / d, which is roughly equivalent to Iran’s current production of 3.3 mn bbl / d, of which over 2 mn bbl / d are exported, according to analysts and industry sources. Saudi Arabia is the only member with tangible, readily available barrels, one source said, dismissing the rest as “paper” capacity.

IN CONTEXT- Saudi Arabia’s oil output is expected to surpass 9.5 mn bbl / d in July, with another 2.5 mn bbl / d of extra capacity, which has only been utilized once in the past decade when it went head-to-head with Russia for market share in 2020. Meanwhile, Opec+ production hikes had already tested the production limits of some members without having to make up for Iran’s share, all while the group keeps 4.5 mn bbl / d of the five-year-old cuts in place.

Conflicting messages: Head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Fatih Birol voiced the agency’s readiness to release emergency oil stocks from its 1.2 bn-barrel reserve to address any potential market shortages, Reuters reported separately. This statement was immediately criticized by Opec’s Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais, who accused the IEA of creating “false alarms” and “market fear,” insisting that current market conditions do not warrant such measures.

SPORTS-

#1- Saudi Arabia and Qatar will host the fourth round of Asia’s 2026 Fifa World Cup qualifiers from 8 to 14 October, joining Iraq, Oman, Indonesia, and the UAE to compete for a spot in the upcoming world football tournament, the African Football Confederation said in a statement. A draw will be held on 17 June to divide teams into two groups — teams taking first place will qualify directly, while runners-up will head to a playoff next November.

#2- Al Ittihad, Al Qadsiah, Al Hilal, and Al Nassr will compete for the Saudi Super Cup in Hong Kong from 19 to 23 August, after SMC Group — SAFF’s exclusive commercial partner — and SUM KM Sport reached a hosting agreement, according to a press release. Matches will be held at the Hong Kong Stadium, with the tournament draw set to take place soon.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

There’s no shortage of front page news in the global press this morning, with the war between Israel and Iran into its third and even more concerning day, politically motivated assassinations shaking the US, and millions coming out to protest Trump’s birthday bash military parade.

The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran looks set to continue and become even more deadly, with strikes between the two countries continuing throughout the night and accompanied by Iranian vows to take revenge and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s threats that attacks to come will be “nothing compared with what they will be handed in the coming days.” Since sparking the conflict on Friday morning with strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sights, in addition to assassination strikes on senior military figures and nuclear scientists, at least 138 Iranians and 9 Israelis have been killed.

Last night’s attacks saw Israel expand its targeting to include Iranian energy sites, including on the world’s largest gas field and on oil facilities in the country. Adding to energy market jitters were Iranian threats to close the oil supply chokepoint Straight of Hormuz — potentially leading to the cutting off about 20% of the world’s daily oil supply. (Reuters | Associated Press | New York Times | Financial Times | Wall Street Journal | BBC | Guardian)

The Kingdom condemned Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, missile production facilities, and senior military figures, labelling the action “a clear violation of international laws and norms,” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement posted on X on Friday. The Kingdom called on the international community and the Security Council to intervene and bring an end to the aggression.

Saudi + Egypt emerge as key air corridors: Saudi Arabia and Egypt became the primary southern corridors for this diverted air traffic after the clearing of airspace over Iran, Iraq, and Jordan prompted a large-scale rerouting of flights. (Reuters)

While over in the states, a manhunt is on for a suspect alleged to have murdered a Democratic state politician Melissa Hortman and her husband, in what Minnesota Governor Tim Walz described as a likely “politically motivated assassination”. In a separate attack, the suspect is also understood to have shot Democratic state lawmaker John Hoffman and his wife, who are currently in hospital receiving treatment. (Reuters | Associated Press | New York Times | Washington Post)

Also ranking high on the world’s digital front pages is Donald Trump’s military parade that was overshadowed by nationwide protests, which some outlets estimate numbered in the millions of protestors across more than 2k sites. The parade — purportedly to celebrate the 250th anniversary of the US Army, but also landing on Trump’s 79th birthday — sparked protests under the banner No Kings in opposition to what they describe as creeping authoritarianism. (Associated Press | CNN | Washington Post | New York Times)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The countdown began for the 2025 Esports World Cup, which will to be held in Riyadh from July 7 to August 24, the state news agency SPA reports. The tournament will bring together over 2k professional players and 200 clubs from more than 100 countries to compete across 25 tournaments for a record-breaking USD 70 mn prize pool. This year’s lineup includes top games, such as League of Legends, Dota 2, PUBG, Fortnite, Call of Duty, Valorant, and Tekken 8.

ALSO- The Esports World Cup Foundation signed a three-year agreement with Amazon Ads to boost global reach and improve fans’ experience, according to a press release. The collaboration builds on previous agreements to deliver Esports World Cup content via Twitch, Prime Video, Alexa, and Wondery.

AND- Cristiano Ronaldo is the new Esports World Cup Global Ambassador, according to a press release. Ronaldo has been involved with the tournament since its launch in 2023 and made an appearance at last year’s closing ceremony. He will also appear as a playable character in one of the tournament’s featured games, Fatal Fury: City of the Wolves.

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2

ECONOMY

Israel-Iran escalation puts Saudi economy at a critical juncture

The military exchange between Israel and Iran could have profound implications for the Saudi economy, National Bank of Kuwait's Issa Hijazeen told EnterpriseAM. The possibility of supply disruptions, retaliatory missile strikes, and even the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has become a credible threat, with both sides vowing continued escalation.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The strikes have already driven oil prices higher, due to expectations of risk to global energy supply chains, Hijazeen notes. Higher oil prices would increase fiscal revenues and strengthen the Kingdom's external position, allowing the government to narrow its budget deficit in the short term. However, a prolonged conflict that disrupts air travel or threatens strategic infrastructure could undermine non-oil growth in many sectors including tourism, logistics, and finance, Hijazeen added.

BY THE NUMBERS- Brent crude jumped 7.0% on Friday to USD 74.23 a barrel, marking the largest intraday moves since 2022, Reuters reports. But despite the sudden rise, prices remain in the red y-o-y and well below their 2022 peaks reached a few years back after Russia launched its war on Ukraine.

But oil prices could rise further, with Israel now targeting Iranian energy sites: Israel expanded its focus to include Iran’s energy infrastructure yesterday, with a strike on an Iranian natural gas processing facility in the South Pars gas field — the world’s largest. Although the field’s output is primarily for the domestic market, Israel’s turn towards energy targets could add even more volatility to the international energy market.

While Israel’s attacks have not yet disrupted oil supplies, an Iranian retaliation, like closing the Strait of Hormuz — a channel for some 20% of the world’s oil supply — or attacking regional oil infrastructure could cause prices to rise by a further USD 20 per barrel, former Opec official and Rystad’s head of geopolitical analysis Jorge Leon told the newswire.

THREE SCENARIOS-

“The degree to which the conflict escalates will determine whether the region emerges more fiscally empowered, or whether gains in diversification, trade, and investment will be overshadowed by regional instability and investor caution,” Hijazeen said.

#1- In the optimistic scenario, the conflict between Israel and Iran remains geographically contained, with Iran avoiding attacks on GCC oil infrastructure or US bases, and the Strait of Hormuz stays open under increased monitoring. Brent crude prices would stabilize in the USD 80–85 per barrel range due to supply risk premiums rather than actual production cuts, and Saudi Arabia's oil production schedules would remain unchanged for this year.

Higher hydrocarbon prices would help narrow the projected budget deficit to about 4% of GDP, and the increase in oil revenues is expected to maintain calm in capital markets. However, growth in Saudi Arabia's non-oil sector could slightly decelerate to around 3.5% in 2025, though it would remain strong, supported by ongoing reforms and significant FDI inflows.

#2- The baseline scenario will see a prolonged war with partial supply disruptions, characterized by continued Israeli targeting of Iranian military sites and limited Iranian responses against US assets or GCC infrastructure. The Strait of Hormuz will remain open, though maritime insurance costs will go up.

Oil prices are expected to rise to USD 95–100 per barrel, with increased insurance premiums and potential small-scale physical disruptions due to the loss of some Iranian crude, partially offset by spare capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Rising defense and strategic reserve spending will pressure the Saudi budget towards a higher deficit, despite the increase in oil revenues. The non-oil sector — including tourism, aviation, and regional non-trade, will experience tangible slowdowns, and FDI decisions may be delayed, negatively impacting non-oil growth across the GCC, while the financial sector will likely increase provisions to counter the potential increase in non-performing loans.

#3- Finally, a pessimistic scenario of a full-scale conflict could involve Iran attempting to block the Strait of Hormuz or targeting Saudi and UAE oil infrastructure, regional airspace would face intermittent shutdowns. This would cause Brent oil prices to surge to USD 100-120 per barrel due to expected supply losses and heightened risks to shipping routes.

While record oil revenues would be generated, they would be offset by increased emergency spending, reconstruction efforts, and subsidy increases, potentially leading to record fiscal deficits in both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Hijazeen argued. Non-oil sectors like tourism, aviation, logistics, and real estate would contract, capital flight would increase due to heightened risk aversion, and long-term investor confidence would decline, severely disrupting trade due to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz or attacks on shipping.

Across all scenarios, the monetary policy of Saudi Arabia and the UAE will remain tied to the US Federal Reserve's decisions, Hijazeen concludes. Central banks will have limited independent flexibility and will likely mirror any policy changes made by the Fed, as both currencies are pegged to the USD.

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3

BANKING

SNB to issue USD-denominated tier 2 capital debt instruments

Tadawul-listed Saudi National Bank (SNB) plans to issue USD-denominated tier 2 capital debt instruments under its euronotes medium-term program, SNB said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The issuance is set to be carried out through a special purpose vehicle and will be offered to qualified investors both inside and outside the Kingdom.

The details: The value of the issuance has yet to be announced and is expected to be determined alongside the terms of the issuance at a later stage based on market conditions. The bank intends to issue the instruments for the "improvement of tier 2 capital,” as well as for “general corporate purposes and to fulfill the SNB’s financial and strategic objectives.”

ADVISORS: Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, DBS Bank, Emirates NBD, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, JP Morgan Securities, Mashreq bank, Mizuho International, SNB Capital, SMBC Nikko Capital Markets, and Standard Chartered will act as joint lead managers and joint bookrunners for the potential offering.

SNB has been active in the debt market as of late: SNB has recently closed a SAR-denominated additional tier one (AT1) perpetual sukuk offering, raising SAR 1.73 bn from local investors. The offering, which kicked off in early May, was open to both institutional and qualified investors in the Kingdom.

More in the pipeline: Bank Albilad is currently planning a USD-denominated AT1 sukuk under its USD 2 bn program. Meanwhile, Cenomi Centers is gearing up to issue up to SAR 3.75 bn in sukuk.

REMEMBER- As of March 2025, Saudi Arabia’s total direct debt reached SAR 1.33 tn (USD 354.3 bn), with SAR 797.1 bn (USD 231.6 bn) in domestic debt and SAR 531.7 bn (USD 141.8 bn) in external debt, according to recent data from the National Debt Management Center. This marks a 9.3% increase from the previous year, highlighting the ongoing expansion of the Kingdom's debt portfolio.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

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4

Investment Watch

Dubai-based Stake launches real estate development fund in Saudi

Dubai-based real estate investment platform Stake launched a private real estate development fund in Saudi, Asharq Business reports, citing a company statement. The fund is being rolled out through the Stake Saudi Arabia app, opening up Riyadh-based shariah-compliant investment prospects for both local and international investors.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

The details: The fund offers investment in a mixed-use development spanning 60k sqm in Riyadh’s upscale Al Malqa district. The site will include a hotel, serviced apartments, commercial offices, and retail outlets.

The partners: The fund is being launched in partnership with Tharawat Financial as the fund manager, Rasf Investment as the developer, and Mawan Real Estate as the project manager.

Stake has previously signaled its expansion plans for the Kingdom, announcing plans to invest SAR 1 bn in Saudi real estate in 1H 2025. The platform has reportedly been in talks with Al Rajhi Seventh to acquire a commercial property in North Riyadh as the fund’s initial asset. Stake has also partnered with Mulkia Investment to manage future funds in the country.

About Stake: The platform launched in Saudi Arabia in 2024, becoming the first Capital Market Authority-regulated vehicle that allows international investors to access the Saudi real estate market. The company raked in more than SAR 135 mn across three private real estate funds in Riyadh from investors in over 70 countries, Arabian Business reports. It is backed by major institutional investors, including Mubadala Investment Company, Aramco’s Wa’ed Ventures, Al Jomaih Holding Group, and Middle East Venture Partners.

LOOKING AHEAD- Stake plans to introduce more investment products across Riyadh and Dubai in the coming six months, with an eye on scaling up investor participation, Co-CEO Rami Tabbar said.

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5

Investment Watch

Over SAR 428 mn in Saudi-Dutch agriculture agreements signed in Amsterdam

Saudi and Dutch entities inked 27 agreements and MoUs worth over SAR 428 mn in the environmental, water, and agricultural sectors, state news agency SPA reports. The agreements aim to develop and localize advanced technologies in agriculture, water, and environmental sustainability. Al Arabiya also has the story.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

Agricultural development and investment: Homegrown Dava Agricultural Company partnered with firms specializing in agriculture, fertilizers, and software, with agreements exceeding SAR 292 mn. Meanwhile, Saudi Greenhouses Management and Agri. Marketing partnered with Plantae and Certhon to invest in localizing agricultural innovations, Saudi Gazette reports.

Crop-specific projects: Lehaa Group for Trade and Agricultural Investment, Dutch Royal HZPC Group, and Gal Sahara Potato Production will invest over SAR 76 mn to establish a French fries factory and improve potato farming productivity.

In biotechnology, research, and technology transfer:

Livestock and animal health: The Saudi National Program for the Development of the Livestock and Fisheries Sector and the Dutch company VigGuard will cooperate on localizing livestock disease control research under a freshly signed MoU.

At the GreenTech exhibition in Amsterdam, Estidama agreed to collaborate with Hudson River Biotechnology on transferring genomic technologies to improve crop resilience, SPA reports. In addition, the National Company for Agricultural Services (AgriServ) will work with Delphy on transferring best practices and provide specialized training and technical support for farmers, Arab News reports.

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6

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Capital Intelligence affirms Saudi credit rating at AA- with stable outlook

ECONOMY-

Capital Intelligence Ratings affirmed the Kingdom’s long-term foreign and local currency rating at AA- and short-term rating at A1+, with a stable outlook, it said in a statement (pdf). The action was supported by strong international liquidity and growing reliance on non-oil manufacturing, in addition to low government debt, solid banking and fiscal buffers, and small foreign funding. Ratings may improve with deeper economic reforms, improving medium-term economic and fiscal outlooks, and further reliance on non-oil economy.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

TRADE-

Saudi Exim + Credit Oman sign export agreement: The Saudi Export-Import Bank (Saudi Exim) signed an MoU with Credit Oman during the TXF Global 2025 conference in Copenhagen — which took place between 10-12 June — to boost cooperation on joint export projects and share expertise, state news agency SPA reported on Friday. The agreement aims to support Saudi non-oil exports and strengthen trade ties between the two countries.

LOGISTICS-

The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) added MSC’s Himalaya Express shipping service to King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam and Jubail Commercial Port, it said in a statement last Thursday. The new service — with a capacity of 14k TEUs — will connect the two ports to 12 regional and international ports, including Jebel Ali and Abu Dhabi in the UAE, Hamad in Qatar, Nhava Sheva, Mundra, and Vizhinjam in India, Sines in Portugal, Valencia, Barcelona, and Malaga in Spain, and Gioia Tauro and Genoa in Italy.

ICYMI- Mawani has recently added four new shipping services to Jeddah Islamic Port, including CMA CGM’s MEDEX with a capacity of 10k TEUs, SeaLand’s WARM with a handling capacity of up to 600 TEUs, 5CX with a 1.5k standard container capacity, and RESIN with a 1k standard container capacity.

AVIATION-

Saudia launched its first direct, regular flights from Riyadh to Vienna, it said in a post onX last Thursday. The route — introduced in partnership with the Air Connectivity Program — will run four flights a week on Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays, and Sundays between King Khalid International Airport and Vienna International Airport.

ICYMI-Saudia began operating five weekly flights to Italy last Friday, connecting Riyadh and Jeddah to Venice. Riyadh now has three weekly departures, while Jeddah operates two weekly flights to the Italian city.

STARTUP WATCH-

Paris-based agritech startup Kumulus Water raised about USD 3.6 mn in seed funding to support its expansion into the Kingdom, where demand for sustainable water solutions is high, it said in a press release earlier this month. The round was funded by multiple investors, including France’s Bpifrance, Belgium’s Spadel, and regional VCs such as PlusVC, Khalys Venture, and Flat6Labs.

About Kumulus: The tech company makes machines that turn air into drinking water, providing a sustainable source of mineralized water for hotels, companies, and factories.

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7

PLANET FINANCE

PE and VC activity in MENA took a hit last year, but momentum looks strong for 2025 -Pitchbook

Dealmaking in the Middle East took a slight hit last year, though bright spots still emerged across both venture capital and private equity, according to PitchBook’s latest MENA private capital breakdown report (pdf). Exits remained on the low side, with combined PE and VC-backed exit value in MENA dropping 42% y-o-y, while volume was down 16%. IPO appetite also waned, though select names braved public markets, including Arabian Mills in Saudi and the UAE’s NMDC Energy and Talabat.

Total private market fundraising also fell last year to USD 13.4 bn across 56 funds, with PE commanding the lion’s share.

PRIVATE EQUITY-

Total PE transaction value hit USD 13.7 bn across 147 plays in 2024, crossing the USD 10 bn mark for the fifth year in a row despite shedding 19.2% y-o-y in value. Of this, USD 3.7 bn across 43 buyouts was recorded in 4Q alone, with transaction value climbing nearly 30% q-o-q.

Fewer fund closures, bigger checks: Private equity funds in the region pulled in USD 9.5 bn last year, a three-fold increase compared to the previous year, despite a sharp drop in the number of fund closures. Mubadala Capital’s USD 3.1 bn MIC Capital Partners IV fund and the USD 5.2 bn Future Fund Oman headlined the year.

PE exits dropped 46.1% to their weakest level since 2019 at USD 7.4 bn, but things picked up in 4Q, with exits during the quarter accounting for nearly 72% of full-year exit value, which could signal some momentum in the exit pipeline this year.

Tech continued to draw outsized attention: IT-related PE investments rose 14.7% y-o-y to USD 1.4 bn, buoyed by standout transactions like Arcapita and DGPays’ USD 385 mn acquisition of Mashreq’s NeoPay. Oman also emerged as a bright spot, notching two of the region’s largest transactions, including Apollo’s USD 600 mn acquisition of 50% of Vale Oman Distribution Center.

Cross-border interest propped up the numbers: MENA-based investors were involved in USD 56.7 bn worth of European PE transactions last year, marking an all-time high, led by Adnoc’s USD 16.3 bn proposed takeover of Germany’s Covestro. The numbers point to MENA players’ growing interest in broadening their geographical footprint, even as foreign limited partners (LPs) ramped up activity in the region.

Who’s pulling the strings? Sovereign wealth funds, namely UAE’s Mubadala Investment Company, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), were among the most active regional players in non-MENA PE transactions over the last seven years. Bahrain’s Investcorp and Tunisia’s Africinvest rounded out the top five.

Sector-focused strategies also gained traction, with our friends at EFG Hermes closing a USD 300 mn Saudi Education Fund targeting private schools, and real estate funds bouncing back with USD 1.2 bn raised, led by Cenomi Centers and GIB Capital’s SAR 1 bn Real Estate Fund. The trend signals a shift toward fewer, larger vehicles with clearer mandates, as the region positions itself to absorb and deploy capital at scale.

VENTURE CAPITAL-

On an annual basis, VC activity declined 33% y-o-y to USD 2.8 bn across 678 transactions amid a tougher funding environment and more cautious investor sentiment. The UAE led regional activity, accounting for over 30% of transactions, while Saudi Arabia posted a 41.6% increase in transaction count to 143 in 2024. Meanwhile, regional VC fundraising rose 49.7% y-o-y to USD 1.8 bn.

Similar to the PE side of things, 4Q marked a positive end to a lackluster year: MENA-based VCs closed USD 1.2 bn in transaction value during 4Q 2024 — the highest quarterly total since 4Q 2023 — according to PitchBook’s 2025 MENA Private Capital Market Review. A major contributor was the USD 500 mn round raised by Turkish martech platform Insider, led by US-based General Atlantic.

Who are the most active players? Since 2018, the most active global VC investors in MENA have been 500 Global (232 deals), Flat6Labs (111), and Wamda Capital (73). MENA-based investors have also been active abroad, with VentureSouq (272), Kube VC (259), and Morningstar Ventures (201) being among the most prominent in international VC transactions. In 2024, MENA investors participated in a record USD 41.2 bn in North American VC transaction value.

LOOKING AHEAD-

The 2025 outlook for PE in MENA is broadly bullish, underpinned by deepening regional capital markets, expanding multi-asset strategies, and an ongoing push by governments to position the region as a global investment magnet. Still, geopolitics could throw a wrench in momentum, potentially weighing on global risk appetite.

Private market fundraising more generally in the region is projected to rise over USD 20 bn in 2025, supported by the growth of fund managers seeking several asset classes, expanding regional tech hubs, and the greater use of private capital markets. The region’s favorable tax and business policies are projected to attract capital, with fundraising set to be driven by local and international LPs and sizable government capital.

TASI

10,841

-1.5% (YTD: -9.9%)

MSCI Tadawul 30

1,392

-1.0% (YTD: -7.8%)

NomuC

26,798

-1.6% (YTD: -14.9%)

USD : SAR (SAMA)

USD 3.75 Sell

USD 3.75 Buy

Interest rates

5.0% repo

4.5% reverse repo

EGX30

32,512

-1.3% (YTD: +9.3%)

ADX

9,564

-1.3% (YTD: +1.5%)

DFM

5,365

-1.9% (YTD: +4.0%)

S&P 500

5977

-1.1% (YTD: +1.6%)

FTSE 100

8851

-0.4% (YTD: +8.3%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5290

-1.3% (YTD: +8.1%)

Brent crude

USD 74.23

+7.0%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.58

+4.0%

Gold

USD 3452.80

+1.5%

BTC

USD 1044,940.10

-0.6% (YTD: +12.2%)

Sukuk/bond market index

911

-0.1% (YTD: +1.0%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

144.23

-0.1% (YTD: +3.1%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

20.82

+15.5% (YTD: +20.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 1.5% on Thursday on turnover of SAR 5.3 bn. The index is down 9.9% YTD.

In the green: Sedco Capital REIT (+0.9%), Cenomi Retail (+0.7%) and TAPRCO (+0.7%).

In the red: AlOmran (-9.2%), Ayyan (-7.4%) and TALCO (-7.3%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 1.6% on Thursday on turnover of SAR 34.4 mn. The index is down 14.9% YTD.

In the green: Anmat (+29.5%), Taqat (+7.1%) and TAM Development (+6.7%).

In the red: Knowledgenet (-13.5%), Ghida Alsultan (-9.6%) and Future Care (-7.2%).

Tags:

CALENDAR

JUNE

17-18 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

24-25 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): Tech-ecO-System Summit (ToSS), Riyadh.

30 June (Monday): Cancellation of Fines and Exemption of Financial Penalties Initiative by the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (Zatca) deadline.

JULY

July (Second week): World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Global Awards 2025 awards ceremony, Geneva.

7 July-24 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

29-30 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

31 July (Thursday): Deadline for companies with SAR 2.5 mn or more in 2022/2023 revenues to integrate e-invoicing solutions with Fatoora.

AUGUST

7 July-24 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

5-17 August (Tuesday-Sunday): 2025 Fiba Asia Cup, Jeddah.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Monday-Wednesday): Money 20/20 Middle East, Riyadh.

17-18 September (Wednesday-Thursday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

23 September (Tuesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

1-3 October (Wednesday-Friday): Saudi Green Building Forum, Riyadh.

7-8 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global EV & Mobility Technology (GEMTECH) Forum, Riyadh.

15 October (Wednesday): Russian-Arab Summit.

17 October (Friday): Saudization for private healthcare roles enters its second phase.

22-23 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Private Capital Forum, Riyadh.

28-30 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Investment Initiative (FII9), King Abdulaziz International Conference Center (KAICC) and the Ritz-Carlton, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

3-9 November (Monday- Sunday): WTA Tour Finals, Riyadh.

11-13 November (Tuesday-Thursday): TouriseSummit, Riyadh.

17-20 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre, Riyadh.

23-26 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday) The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh.

27-30 November (Thursday-Sunday): World Rally Championship Saudi Arabia 2025, Jeddah.

30 November (Sunday): Zatca 21st E-invocing integration wave deadline.

DECEMBER

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): International Conference on Nuclear and Radiological Emergencies, Riyadh.

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): 61st ISOCARP World Planning Congress, Riyadh.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

25-27 December (Saturday-Monday): The Fortune Global Forum 2025, Riyadh.

31 December (Wednesday): Zatca 22st E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

2026

UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

27-29 April (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

2027

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.

Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

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