Oil decline may lead to biggest deficit since 2020 -Goldman Sachs. PLUS: Tesla arrives in the Kingdom

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Sabic’s net income projected to drop in 1Q + UAE’s Presight plans to expand into the Kingdom this year

Good morning. We are starting the week hot with a somewhat packed issue, as uncertainty continues to loom over local and international markets.

The big stories today: Our budget deficit could hit USD 67 bn due to dropping oil prices, Goldman Sachs warned. Meanwhile, Tesla has officially landed in the Kingdom, set to face tough competition ahead from, BYD, Zeekr, and PIF-backed Lucid Motors, as the US-based automaker aims to escape problems at home.

ALSO- The Service Equipment Company has set its IPO price range ahead of its Nomu listing, aiming to raise up to SAR 60 mn. We also have the latest industrial production data from Gastat, and the latest Construction Sector Overview report from the Saudi Contractors Authority. Let’s dive in.

NEWS TRIGGERS-

Gastat set to roll out fresh inflation data: The General Authority for Statistics (Gastat) is scheduled to release the Consumer Price Index and Wholesale Price Index reports for the month of March on Tuesday.

ON THE SAME DAY- The Real Estate Price Index for 1Q is also due to come out this Tuesday.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The HumanCapability Initiative (HCI) Conference kicks off today at the King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh. Over two days, 300 speakers and over 12k attendees from over 100 countries will host discussions about skills, education, work, and technology to improve human capabilities.

Also under the HCI banner, the Education Global Exhibition (EDGEx) runs until Wednesday, 16 April at the Ritz Carlton, Riyadh. This event will showcase cutting-edge innovations and offer workshops to empower individuals and organizations.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

The 2025 Middle East Poultry Expo returns to the Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, running from Monday to Wednesday. The 15k sqm venue is gearing up to receive more than 320 exhibitors from over 40 countries, marking a significant growth compared to last year ’s 207 exhibitors from 37 countries.

The 11th Saudi FilmFestival will showcase 68 films from 17 to 23 April in Dhahran, including feature films, shorts, and documentaries from Saudi Arabia, the Gulf, and beyond. This year’s edition honors actor Ibrahim Al-Hasawi and introduces new sections like screenings at the Energy Exhibit, a focus on Japanese cinema, and curated films from Clermont-Ferrand and Japan’s Short Shorts Film Festival. The festival includes masterclasses, discussion panels, and a production market while streaming selected content online.

The F1 stcSaudi Arabian Grand Prix 2025 revs up this Friday, 18 April, at the Jeddah Corniche Circuit and wraps up the following Sunday. A friendly reminder that schools will be off on 20-21 April in Jeddah, Makkah, and Taif as the race takes over the streets. You can grab your tickets here.

Support races and entertainment: The race weekend will also feature support races like the FIA Formula 2 Championship and the all-female F1 Academy Series, according to a schedule from F1. Off track, expect performances from Egyptian rapper Marwan Pablo in addition to Usher, Major Lazer Soundsystem, and Jennifer Lopez.

WEATHER- Expect a cloudy day in Riyadh, while Makkah and Madinah will experience breezy conditions, with gusts picking up throughout the day.

Riyadh: 33°C daytime / 21°C overnight
Makkah: 33°C daytime / 19°C overnight
Madinah: 32°C daytime / 16°C overnight

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Saudi Basic Industries’ (Sabic) net income is projected to drop 47% y-o-y to SAR 130 mn in 1Q 2025, while revenue is expected to rise 6% y-o-y to SAR 34.6 bn, Riyad Capital said in a research note seen by EnterpriseAM.

IN CONTEXT- Sabic still missed projections in 2024 despite swinging to a SAR 1.5 bn profit in 2024, from a SAR 2.8 bn loss in 2023. The company reported a SAR 1.9 bn loss in 4Q 2024 on a slightly lower quarterly revenue of SAR 34.7 bn.

Petrochemical players are struggling with high costs and margin compression: The note projected a net income drop of 54% y-o-y to SAR 319 mn for the big eight in the sector, on the back of rising Chinese production, suboptimal global demand, and market uncertainty from US tariffs.

BUT- Riyad Capital believes that local producers may benefit from current market disruptions. US tariffs could offer a chance for Saudi firms to fill the supply gaps, the investment management firm said. Fertilizer products are also expected to perform better due to strong seasonal demand and higher prices for urea and ammonia, despite broader sector pressures.

Riyadh’s end of land freeze and anticipated White Land Tax Law reform are expected to boost its residential market, curb land hoarding, and expand housing supply and diversity, JLL’s Regional Director in Saudi Saud Al Sulaimani told Al Arabiya.

REMEMBER- Saudi Arabia launched a set of real estate reforms aimed at expanding land availability, improving rental regulations, and reining in soaring property prices in Riyadh. The plan includes offering 10k to 40k serviced residential plots annually, priced at a maximum of SAR 1.5k per sqm. In addition, new regulations will see the government lift a ban on land sales in Riyadh’s north, overhaul the White Land Tax Law, and introduce a new rental law.

Much needed reforms: Although around 30k new units are expected to enter the Riyadh market in 2025, demand continues to outpace supply, pressuring prices and reinforcing Riyadh’s position as the top city for residential investment returns in the Kingdom, Sulaimani said.

UAE’s G42-backed data analytics firm Presight plans to expand into Saudi Arabia in 2025, COO Adel AlSharji said at a media roundtable attended by EnterpriseAM UAE. The company is also eyeing the US, Kuwait, Egypt, and countries in Southeast Asia like Indonesia and the Philippines. The focus is mostly on the Global South, where there is high demand and a need for efficiency, a company spokesperson said during the event.

Presight aims to nearly double its revenue share from international markets to 40% from 23% last year, CEO Thomas Pramotedham told us on the sidelines. Other than the UAE, Presight operates in about 14 countries across Central and Southeast Asia as well as Africa through AI-powered applications that focus on digitizing urban infrastructure, energy, public defense systems, and emergency response and crisis management operations.

Saudi firms eye Egypt for new investment push: Some 100 Saudi investors and members of the Saudi-Egyptian Business Council led by the Federation of Saudi Chambers landed in Cairo yesterday to kick off a visit aimed at deepening investment ties between the Kingdom and Egypt, state news agency SPA reports.

On the agenda: The delegation will participate in a Saudi-Egyptian investment forum, hold B2B meetings, conduct site visits to major projects, and meet with Egyptian cabinet members and company representatives. Talks will spotlight prospects across different industries, including manufacturing, real estate, tourism, and trade zones.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Riyadh and Jeddah were listed among the 27 fastest-growing cities for m’naires, according to Henley and Partners' World’s Wealthiest Cities Report 2025. Riyadh saw a 65% increase in m’naires over the past decade, with over 20k high-net-worth individuals now based in the city, including 11 b’naires. Jeddah’s m’naire population grew by 50% to 10.4k, including nine b’naires.

REMEMBER- Saudi b’naires returned to Forbes World’s b’naire list for the first time since 2017, following a wave of IPOs and growing market transparency in the Kingdom. Some 15 Saudis made it to the list this year — up from 10 in 2017 — with a combined net worth of USD 55.8 bn.

#2- Riyadh ranked 27th in the Institute of Management Development’s SmartCity Index2025, followed by Makkah (29th), Jeddah (47th), Medina (67th) and AlUla (112th), who join the ranking for the first time. The UAE led rankings in the MENA region, with Dubai snagging 4th place and Abu Dhabi coming in 5th — the only Arab cities in the top 10.

#3- National carrier Saudia ranked first worldwide and second in the Mena region for both departure and arrival punctuality, with 94.1% on-time rates across 16k flights, according to a report (pdf) from Aviation Analytics firm Cirium.

Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport also ranked first as the most on-time large airport worldwide. The airport recorded a 93.9% on-time departure rate and a 91.9% on-time arrival rate over more than 19k flights. Dammam’s King Fahd International Airport ranked third among medium-sized airports globally, with a 91.6% on-time departure rate and 90.6% on-time arrival rate.

OIL WATCH-

Saudi oil shipments to China are set to increase to some 48 mn barrels in May, as buyers in Asia lock in extra barrels following a sharp drop in prices, Reuters reports, citing unnamed sources. The tally — representing a 35.5% m-o-m increase per our calculations — is the highest since 2024, marking the first allocation increase to China since the beginning of this year.

BACKGROUND- Aramco made its steepest oil price cut in over two years after slashing May prices for Arab light crude and other grades to Asia by USD 2.30, citing “healthy market fundamentals and the positive market outlook.” The move came on the back of Kazakhstan continuing to report record production figures and Iraq failing to comply with production cuts.

SPEAKING OF- Kazakhstan is showing no signs of slowing down, carrying on business as usual at the oil pump with no intention of cutting back production, with an operator saying that no formal reduction request was received, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. Non-conforming countries will have till mid-April to submit their plans to commit to production curbs, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee said in a statement last week following a meeting.

SPORTS-

Selected bidders for the six football clubs up for privatization will be unveiled by the end of 2Q 2025, Media and Marketing Deputy Minister Adel Bakheet Al Zahrani told Asharq Business on the sidelines of the Sports Investment Forum. Some 22 bids — including interest from foreign companies — are currently under evaluation as part of the second wave of privatization.

The clubs up for grabs in the first batch include: Al Zulfi, Al Nahda, Al Okhdood, Al Ansar, Al Orouba and Al Kholoud. The second batch to be offered at a later stage include: Al Shoulla, Hajar, Al Najma, Al Riyadh, Al Rawda, Jeddah, Al Taraji and Al Sahel.

REMEMBER- The first phase of the privatization program saw top football clubs Al Ittihad, Al Ahli, Al Nassr, and Al Hilal transformed into companies, with the PIF holding a 75% stake, helping the four clubs sign some of the world’s top football stars (Cristiano Ronaldo and Karim Benzema, among others). The transfers led the clubs to collectively spend almost USD 1 tn during last year’s summer transfer window.

SPEAKING OF TRANSFERS- Salah stays at Liverpool, shrugs off Saudi interest: Egyptian winger Mohamed Salah opted to extend his contract with Liverpool for another two years. The superstar has been linked with a move to Saudi which could have seen him make some GBP 500 mn, BBC reports, citing unnamed sources.

Never say never: Talks of a possible Saudi switch were first floated last February, and while Salah is staying put for now, the switch remains a future possibility, writes the British newswire.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The global tariff war is continuing to lead the news cycle across the global press, with both the business and national papers focusing on US President Donald Trump’s decision to spare smartphones, laptops, chips, and other electronics from his sweeping new tariff regime. The US Customs and Border Protection authority on Friday published a bulletin, listing all the products that will be “excluded from the reciprocal tariffs.” The carveout covers USD 390 bn worth of US imports in 2024 — including some USD 101 bn from China — shielding devices that aren’t manufactured in the US from the 10% global tariff and the much steeper 125% levy on Chinese goods. (Reuters | Bloomberg | Wall Street Journal | New York Times | Financial Times)

While a little closer to home, the US and Iran are back at the negotiating table. Tehran and Washington held their highest-level indirect talks in years on Saturday in Oman, marking a potential shift in a long-running standoff over Iran’s nuclear program. Both sides described the two-hour session — mediated by Omani officials — as “constructive” and agreed to resume talks next weekend. US envoy Steven Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly discussed a framework for a possible agreement aimed at scaling back Iran’s uranium enrichment activities in exchange for limited sanctions relief. (Financial Times | Reuters | Axios | AP | CNN | New York TImes)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Esports return to Riyadh with a record USD 70 mn prize pool: The Esports World Cup is set to run between 7 July and 24 August at Boulevard City, featuring 24 esports titles and boasting a record-breaking prize pool exceeding USD 70 mn, it said in a statement. Some USD 27 mn is allocated for the EWC Club Championship, while USD 38 mn will be allocated to game-specific championships — with winners set to bag USD 7 mn each.

ALSO- The 2025 edition will feature a club championship — including new additions such as competitive chess, Crossfire, and Valorant — and a gaming festival spreading across 50k sqm. Tickets are already available here.

AND- The Saudi Venture Capital Company (SVC) will launch its two-day Private CapitalForum on Wednesday, 22 October in Riyadh's King Abdullah Financial District. The event will bring together over 50 speakers around more than 15 panels to discuss the private investment ecosystem, including venture investing, private equity, and debt.

Oil decline may lead to biggest deficit since 2020 -Goldman Sachs

Budget deficit at risk of hitting USD 67 bn following oil price dips:The Kingdom’s budget deficit could widen to USD 67 bn (SAR 251.5 bn), or over 6% of GDP, in a scenario where oil prices average USD 62 per barrel in 2025, Goldman Sachs economist Farouk Soussa told Bloomberg. The projection would mark the biggest shortfall since the 2020 pandemic.

The breakdown: If prices remained around USD 62 a barrel this year, the budget deficit would rise significantly to around USD 70-75 bn, up from around USD 30-35 bn, Soussa told CNBC. The government needed oil at USD 93 a barrel to balance last year’s budget, according to Bloomberg Economics’ Chief Emerging Markets Economist Ziad Daoud.

Somewhat in line with recent forecasts: “The breakeven oil price for Saudi Arabia is USD 82-83 a barrel, so … you can expect a very big budget deficit between 4-5% this year, up from 2.3% in 2024. If oil prices drop to the USD 50 range, it could widen even further,” EFG Hermes’ Head of Research Ahmed Shams El Din told us last week.

.. and way above Riyadh’s initial plans: The government expected the budget shortfall to come in at 2.3% of GDP in the current fiscal year and to “continue at similar levels over the medium term.”

This shortfall poses a major risk to the non-oil sector, which Daoud warns will bear the brunt of falling oil revenues. “Lower prices mean spending cutbacks, slowing construction and reducing public-sector hirings,” Daoud added. Soussa shared a similar concern, saying that the Kingdom will need to see “some fiscal adjustment” as well as “a more aggressive re-prioritization” regarding projects.

More borrowing on the table? Unless spending cuts are made, the Kingdom could borrow an additional USD 16.5 bn before the year ends, Tim Callen, a visiting scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, told Bloomberg. Riyadh would also need to consider alternatives to the current volatile international markets to bridge the funding gap, including cutting spending, raising taxes, or selling stakes in its assets, Soussa told CNBC.

REMEMBER- The borrowing plan for FY 2025 outlined a requirement for some SAR 139 bn (USD 37 bn) in new public debt. The targeted amount is intended to bridge an anticipated SAR 101 bn (USD 27 bn) budget deficit penciled in for the new fiscal year, in addition to covering some SAR 38 bn required to meet principals’ repayments for loans maturing during the period.

BUT- Saudi Arabia still has a strong financial position, with USD 410.2 bn in reserves as of January. The country also saw its long-term foreign currency issuer credit rating get an A+ from both S&P and Fitch. Soussa emphasized that the Kingdom won’t jeopardize its financial stability or risk de-pegging its currency just to maintain current spending levels. “That’s just not going to happen.”

Tesla arrives in the Kingdom as EV market begins to stir

Tesla officially launched its operations in Riyadh on Thursday, 10 April, without the presence of its CEO, inaugurating a new chapter in a market it had kept at arm’s length for years. The US-based EV giant introduced the Cybertruck and Model Y to local enthusiasts at the Bujairi Terrace, marking the company’s entrance to the fourth Mena market after setting up shop in Jordan, Qatar, and the UAE.

Great potential: Our EV market remains relatively new, with some 2k EVs said to have been sold in the country last year — that is fewer EVs than Tesla sells in a single day globally, Telemetry VP Sam Abuelsamid told Reuters. Saudi aims for 30% of all vehicles in its capital to be electric by 2030, leading to the launch of the Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Company, charged with installing 5k chargers nationwide by 2030.

The competition: Tesla will be butting heads with Chinese EV manufacturers BYD and Zeekr, which already opened showrooms in Riyadh last year. “Tesla won’t be a pioneer in the market…so it will be a hard start,” S&P Global Mobility expert Tatiana Hristova told CNBC, predicting Tesla sales will stand somewhere between 10k to 15k units in the next two years.

Tesla will also be going up against PIF-backed Lucid Motors, which opened its first international manufacturing facility in King Abdullah Economic City, with plans to produce up to 155k EVs annually. Lucid became the first global automaker to bear the “Made in Saudi” badge in January, and exports its Saudi-made vehicles to other countries.

Tesla could still fill the gap: More than 40% of Saudis polled are considering purchasing an EV between 2024 and 2026, according to PwC’s eMobility Outlook. That, coupled with the low penetration of EVs in the local market, could signal the market has been holding out for a heavy hitter like Tesla, Hristova said.

Why now? Things are not looking good for Tesla on the homefront. The company’s struggle in the US market, where sales dropped 13% in 1Q 2025, highlights the need to expand internationally, according to S&P Global. The decline in domestic sales is attributed to rising competition, backlash against CEO Elon Musk's political involvement, and delays in the redesigned Model Y. Tesla’s performance also lagged due to new import tariffs and manufacturing cost pressures.

Trouble is also brewing on the other side of the Atlantic, where Tesla saw sales drop by 49% in the first two months of 2025, Reuters reports, citing the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association. The automaker is now focusing on growing its international presence to increase its global footprint, reduce risks, and tap a growing demand for EVs, taking advantage of a thaw in relations with the Kingdom after Donald Trump’s return to power.

REMEMBER- Tesla reportedly delayed its entrance into the Saudi market due to an unconfirmed spat between CEO Elon Musk and the Public Investment Fund (PIF) over a frustrated 2018 PIF buyout. Musk presented shareholders in 2018 with the option to sell at USD 420 or hold shares and go private, seemingly without an offer in hand.

ICYMI- Saudi is angling to become a global automotive industry hub: PIF has been actively investing in EV makers and the automotive value chain for some time as part of its diversification agenda, including investing multiple times in Lucid. The fund also launched its own EV maker Ceer in a JV with Taiwan’s Foxconn. In late 2023, PIF established a USD 550 mn JV with Italian tire manufacturer Pirelli to establish a Saudi plant with a production capacity of some 3.5 mn tires a year.

BUT- The sector is facing challenges: Summer temperatures often top 50°C in the Kingdom, raising concerns about battery performance, especially for drivers covering long distances between cities, Reuters reports, citing Al Futtaim Automotive Managing Director Carlos Montenegro. He noted that many customers still prefer hybrids due to range anxiety and limited charging options.

ALSO- Is Tesla eying more than EVs? Speculation is also swirling about plans of Musk’s The Boring Company to build an underground road system, a project that offers Riyadh an innovative solution to traffic jams for a rapidly growing city, the Gulf News reports, citing a Sabq article. However, neither Riyadh officials nor The Boring Company confirmed the news.

The story got ink in Al Arabiya.

Service Equipment sets IPO price range ahead of its Nomu listing

The Service Equipment Company (Sec) is guiding on an indicative price range of SAR 80-84 per share for its upcoming Nomu secondary offering of a 30% stake, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. Sec could raise up to SAR 60.48 mn from the offering at the top of the range and reach a market capitalization of SAR 201.6 mn at listing.

Subscriptions open today: The subscription is scheduled to run between 13-17 April. Qualified investors will be able to book a maximum of 119.9k shares and a minimum of 10. The final allocation is slated for Tuesday, 22 April.

Use of proceeds + lockup: Sec’s selling shareholders will rake in all of the proceeds from the sale — excluding some SAR 4 mn in IPO-related costs — with their shares remaining in lock-up for 12 months from the first day of trading.

Meet Sec: Founded in 1980, the Jeddah-based company distributes and markets maintenance workshop equipment, car inspection tools, and oil and lubrication systems. The company’s offerings also extend to the wholesale and retail trading of industrial machinery and fuel station components, including fuel pumps and storage facilities.

ADVISORS- Yaqeen Capital is quarterbacking the transaction as financial advisor and lead manager, with RSM acting as accountant. Receiving agents include Derayah Financial, Alinma Investment, Al Rajhi Capital, SNB Capital, BSF Capital, Riyad Capital, ANB Capital, Alistithmar Capital, Albilad Capital, AlJazira Capital, GIB Capital, Alkhabeer Capital, SAB Invest, and Sahm Capital.

Saudi Arabia’s Industrial production down 0.2% y-o-y in February

The industrial production index (IPI) fell 0.2% y-o-y in February, snapping a four-month growth streak due to a decline in mining and quarrying activity, according to a preliminary report (pdf) from the General Authority for Statistics (Gastat). The IPI increased by 0.7% on a monthly basis.

The main culprit: The mining and quarrying activity — which made up 61.4% of the index — decreased 0.7% y-o-y during the month due to a slowdown in oil production to 8.95 mn barrels per day (bbl / d), down from 9.01 mn bbl / d in February 2024. The sector’s sub-index also inched up 0.3% m-o-m.

The manufacturing sub-index was up 0.2% y-o-y on the back of 3.5% growth in the manufacturing of chemicals and chemical products and a 6.3% increase in food products. Growth was largely offset by a 5.5% y-o-y decline in coke and refined petroleum products. Meanwhile, the sector’s sub-index rose 0.9% m-o-m. Manufacturing makes up for 35% of the overall IPI, making it the second-heaviest component after oil and minerals.

The non-oil activities index rose 3.2% y-o-y in February, while the oil index declined 1.6%. On a monthly basis, non-oil activities increased 1.5%, and oil activities inched up 0.3%.

IN CONTEXT- Non-oil activity continued to expand in February, with the headline PMI easing to 58.4 from January’s decade-high of 60.5 as new business growth cooled slightly.

Utilities were on the up: The sub-index for electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply activity grew 1.1% y-o-y (up 5.8% m-o-m), while that for water supply, sewage, and waste management and remediation activities grew 13.1% y-o-y (down 0.8% m-o-m).

Awarded projects value hits SAR 5.4 bn in March

The Kingdom awarded a total of five projects in March 2025, with a value of SAR 5.4 bn, down from SAR 8.6 bn in February, the Saudi Contractors’ Authority (SCA) said in its Contracting Sector Overview report (pdf). Power and water sector contracts accounted for 70% of the total value, with some SAR 3.8 bn allocated across two projects. Building and construction contracts accounted for the remaining SAR 1.6 bn, distributed across three projects.

Top owners: The Saudi Electricity Company (Sec) topped the list of project owners with a SAR 2.3 bn contract for a PP12 combined cycle power plant in Riyadh. The Saudi Water Partnership Company (SWPC) and Buhur for Investment followed with a SAR 1.5 bn contract for an independent water transmission pipeline in the Eastern Province. IHG Hotels, InterContinental Hotels Group, Dana Bay Tourism, and Jenan Real Estate came in third with a SAR 937.5 mn contract for the InterContinental AL Khobar Dana Bay resort.

ALSO- A consortium of the Public Investment Fund (PIF), Retal Urban Development, and Roshn Real Estate awarded a SAR 491.3 mn contract for residential villas in Riyadh’s Sedra community. Retal Urban Development and Remal Al Khobar Real Estate awarded a SAR 168.8 mn contract to develop the Remal Business Court in Al Khobar.

Regional breakdown: Riyadh led in total project value with SAR 2.8 bn, followed closely by the Eastern Province with SAR 2.6 bn.

What’s next? Eight new projects are expected to be awarded this month, with half in building and construction and the other half in oil and gas. Big-ticket issuers will include Sec, Aramco, Diriyah Gate Development Authority, PIF, Neom, Saudi Basic Industries (Sabic), and the Sports Ministry.

Green Watt to recieve 1.6k EUVs from Tempo e-LV

EV-

Green Watt to receive 1.6k EUVs from Tempo e-LV: The Netherlands-based, VivoPower subsidiary Tembo e-LV will supply 1.6k electric utility vehicles (EUVs) to local energy and environmental solutions provider Green Watt under a USD 85 mn agreement, according to a press release. Green Watt will be responsible for distributing the vehicles across Saudi Arabia over the next five years.

SOUND SMART- An EUV is an electric vehicle used by different industries to transport goods or personnel over short to medium distances. It offers an eco-friendly alternative to traditional vehicles, as its design suits rugged terrains.

OIL-

Ades disclosed Aramco as the counterparty in a previously reported 10-year renewal contract for one of its key standard offshore jack-up rigs in a disclosure to Tadawul on Thursday. The rig, earlier identified as one of six suspended units in the Kingdom, is currently completing a medium-term contract in Egypt. No commencement date has been disclosed.

STARTUP WATCH-

Homegrown AI startup Stuck? closed an undisclosed pre-seed round led by Mena TechFund, with participation from Kaust Innovation Fund and other angel investors, Wamda reported, citing a press release. Stuck? will leverage the freshly raised funds to scale up its Arabic AI models, add Chinese language support, and roll out tailored solutions for enterprise clients.

The pitch: Founded in 2022 by Asmaa Naga (LinkedIn), the startup provides language support services in Arabic and English through combining AI-powered translation with human input.

EDUCATION-

The PIF partnered with Formula E to launch Driving Force, a global STEM and sustainability education program that will roll out across the kingdom, the US, and the UK, it said in a statement. The initiative, unveiled ahead of the Miami E-Prix, will offer hands-on learning experience for electric motorsport and sustainable technology, targeting to attract some 50k students worldwide by the end of 2025.

Tariff troubles loom over US March inflation relief

US inflation beats expectations, but tariff impact yet to surface: The US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) — which excludes food and energy — rose 2.8% y-o-y, marking its lowest annual increase since March 2021, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. While the figures outperformed Wall Street’s 3% forecast, economists caution that impending tariffs could soon reverse the trend.

Fed’s target still distant: Headline inflation has come down significantly to 2.4% from its 9.1% peak in June 2022. However, it remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% long-term target.

Not out of the woods yet: “The good news of an inflation soft print in March needs to be taken with a grain of salt,” Fwdbonds’ chief economist Christopher Rupkey told Reuters, pointing to the intensifying trade war with China. Mark Zandi of Moody’s seconded the notion, telling CNBC that the CPI data “means nothing” because it does not yet reflect recent tariff activity.

Why the delay? The full impact of tariffs hasn’t yet filtered through, as firms had stockpiled imports in early 2025 to get ahead of tariff hikes, Fitch Ratings’ Brian Coulton told CNN.

What are we looking at? Tariffs could push inflation up to 4% — double the Fed’s target — by year-end, CNBC reports, citing projections from Capital Economics and Vanguard. Analysts remain divided on whether this will be a temporary spike or a more persistent trend.

Uncertainty is the key word: Analysts are changing their projections continuously, as the tariff situation remains fluid, with little indicators on where things will stand once the dust settles. Trump recently postponed some country-specific tariffs for 90 days pending trade negotiations, but still maintained a 10% blanket levy on all imports as well as the steep 145% tariff (so far) on Chinese imports. The US administration also spared smartphones, laptops, chips, and other electronics from the sweeping new tariff regime in a bid to ease impact on consumer prices, covering USD 390 bn worth of US imports in 2024 — including some USD 101 bn from China.

Trump is not backing down on cuts: Despite policy volatility, Trump continues to wage his campaign on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. While central bankers remain cautious, markets anticipate three to four rate cuts by year-end, with the first expected in June. “Going forward the Fed is likely to face a difficult trade-off as tariff driven price increases start to feed through to the inflation data and activity remains soft,” CNBC quotes Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Kay Haigh as saying.

TASI	11,503	+3.7% (YTD: -4.4%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,463	+3.8% (YTD: -3.1%)
NomuC	29,925	+2.0% (YTD: -8.1%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	5.0% repo	4.5% reverse repo
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ADX	9,158	+0.4% (YTD: -2.8%)
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Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.53	-0.8%
Gold	USD 3,245	+2.1%
BTC	USD 85,438.90	+2.4% (YTD: -8.8%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 3.7% on Thursday, on turnover of SAR 8.3 bn. The index is down 4.4% YTD.

In the green: SPM (+10.0%), Chemical (+10.0%) and Ataa (+10.0%).

In the red: NCLE (-0.9%), Sedco Capital Reit (-0.6%) and Aljouf (-0.2%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 2.0% on Thursday, on turnover of SAR 38.8 mn. The index is down 8.1% YTD.

In the green: Apico (+16.4%), AlWaha Reit (+11.7%) and Almodawat (+10.5%).

In the red: Balady (-10.6%), iOud (-7.1%) and Balsm Medical (-5.0%).

Riyadh urges path to Palestinian state at Antalya meeting

Saudi reaffirms support for two-state solution: Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan reaffirmed the Kingdom’s commitment to the UN-sponsored two-state solution, a sustainable ceasefire in Gaza, and the establishment of a Palestinian state at the Antalya Ministerial Meeting on the Two-State Solution and Lasting Peace in the Middle East held in Turkey on Friday, state news agency SPA reports.

Weaponization of humanitarian aid: “The entry of aid to Gaza cannot be linked to a ceasefire, as this is a violation of the foundations of international law,” Faisal said, rejecting the use of humanitarian aid as a weapon of war and urging the international community to secure its delivery to civilians.

ALSO- China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao discussed US tariffs and countermeasures with his Saudi counterpart Majid bin Abdullah Al Qasabi during a video call, Reuters reports, citing a statement issued by the Chinese ministry. The ministers also explored ways to strengthen bilateral economic and trade ties as well as cooperation with GCC countries.

CALENDAR

APRIL

13-14 April (Sunday-Monday): Human Capability Initiative (HCI) Conference, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

13-16 April (Sunday-Wednesday): EdgeX HCI, The Ritz Carlton, Riyadh.

14-15 April (Monday-Tuesday): MESH Core Riyadh Conference for Innovation in Healthcare, Riyadh

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah, Riyadh.

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): Umrah and Ziyarah Forum, King Salman International Convention Center, Madinah.

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): 2025 Middle East Poultry Expo, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh.

17-23 April (Thursday-Wednesday): 11th edition of the Saudi Film Festival, Dhahran.

18-20 April (Friday-Sunday): Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, Jeddah Corniche Circuit, Jeddah.

21-24 April (Monday-Thursday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh.

22-23 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): AAM Middle East, Riyadh.

23-25 April (Wednesday-Friday): Construction and Real Estate Development Exhibition, Jazan.

25 April- 3 May (Friday-Saturday): AFC Champions League Elite Finals, Jeddah.

28 April- 30 April (Monday-Wednesday): Automechanika Riyadh, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh.

29 April (Tuesday): Deadline to submit feedback on proposed amendments to the rules for special purpose entities (SPEs).

MAY

May: The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Global Awards 2025 announces its results.

3 May (Saturday): Canelo Alvarez vs William Scull, Anb arena, Riyadh.

5 May (Monday): Opec+ meeting.

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

9 May (Friday): PFL Mena Season 2 Kick-off

12-15 May (Monday-Thursday): Saudi Smart Manufacturing, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-14 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global EV & Mobility Technology Forum, The Arena, Riyadh.

19-20 May (Monday-Tuesday): Tech-ecO-System Summit (ToSS), Riyadh.

23 May (Friday): Guns N’ Roses Show, Riyadh.

31 May-5 June (Saturday-Thursday): Hajj.

JUNE

6-9 June ( Friday-Monday): Eid Al Adha.

17-18 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

26 June (Thursday): 2024-2025 academic year ends.

30 June (Monday): Deadline for Cancellation of Fines and Exemption of Financial Penalties Initiative by the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (Zatca).

JULY

July: The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Global Awards 2025 awards ceremony, Geneva.

7 July-24 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

31 July (Thursday): Deadline for companies with SAR 2.5 mn or more in 2022/2023 revenues to integrate e-invoicing solutions with Fatoora.

29-30 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

AUGUST

7 July-24 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

5-17 August (Tuesday-Sunday): Fiba Asian Cup.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Money 20/20 Middle East, Riyadh.

17-18 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

23 September (Tuesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

22-23 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Private Capital Forum, KAFDC, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

3-9 November (Monday- Sunday): WTA Tour Finals.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday) The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh Front Convention & Exhibition Centre, Riyadh.

27-30 November (Thursday-Sunday): The World Rally Championship (WRC), Jeddah.

DECEMBER

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): International Conference on Nuclear Emergencies, Riyadh.

4-13 December (Thursday-Saturday): Red Sea International Film Festval, Jeddah.

December: The Fortune Global Forum 2025, Riyadh.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

2026

UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

2027

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.

Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

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