Good morning from next door, where a number of us have joined the dozens and dozens of Saudi companies and investors attending the EFG Hermes One on One, the region’s premier investor conference, in Dubai.

It’s shaping up to be another huge morning for regional and global markets, with the big business story of the week being the Trump administration’s bid to reshape the post-Second World War trade order.

The sentiment here on the ground: A 10% tariff is the “new 0%,” and all major regional markets — from the Kingdom to the UAE and Egypt — benefit. That could be good for our manufacturing ambitions in Saudi, but we’ll face competition from Egypt (which is already cheaper than India) and from the UAE.

AND- Markets have a way of quickly equilibrating. One of the smartest investment bankers we know made the point yesterday that from the dotcom meltdown and the global financial crisis, to covid-19 and fallout from the war in Ukraine, financial markets adapt to crises in a fraction of the time they took in the 1970s, 1980s, or even 1990s. No promises, of course, but … is there any reason to think that this time will be different? (Other than, of course, the lack of policy clarity emanating from DC…)

MEANWHILE- Few expect new Saudi market activity to flatline this year, but we’re looking at an adjustment period. The prevailing mood at the moment is “let’s wait and see where this settles.” The (so-far) worst case anyone wanted to put on the table: Some IPOs may slip to the fall window from spring. M&As, meanwhile, seem even less likely to be scuppered by the market’s ongoing temper tantrum.

THE BIG QUESTION FOR THE KINGDOM: What will a lasting disruption to trade mean to oil prices? We’re thinking here not of first-order effects (price hikes, slowing trade, supply chain disruptions) or even second-order impacts (redomiciling manufacturing bases, longer-term changes in consumer behavior), but long-term, systemic impacts.

Oil falling durably below USD 60 per barrel will prompt difficult policy discussions in Riyadh about (a) an even slower buildout of gigaprojects and other major infrastructure investments vs. (b) running higher deficits. Much of the spending we’ve promised to take on is not really optional (Expo, the World Cup).

Most analysts were comfortable about the Saudi fiscal picture, with oil hovering around USD 70. Below USD 60, things get dicier.

Don’t be misled by the gnashing of teeth, though: Nobody is talking about a pullback from the Kingdom’s economic transformation. It’s more a question of how will policymakers adapt.

Companies from our part of the world are the stars of the show. Among the top Saudi firms attending:

  • Alinma Bank
  • Almarai
  • Aramco
  • Care
  • Cenomi Centres and Cenomi Retail
  • Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services
  • eXtra
  • First Mills
  • Jarir
  • Retal
  • Saudi Awwal Bank
  • Savola
  • SNB
  • STC
  • Tas’heel
  • Zain
  • .. and dozens more

HAPPENING TODAY-

It’s day two of the three-day Sports Investment Forum (SIF), which is taking place at the Ritz Carlton hotel in Riyadh, bringing together industry specialists and leaders to build cross-border partnerships. The forum’s objectives include showcasing advanced technologies, improving player and fan experiences, promoting sports academies, and using AI for sports analysis and smart stadiums.

☀️ WEATHER- Riyadh and Madinah are basking in sunshine, but Makkah might see some patchy rain.

  • Riyadh: 36°C daytime / 24°C overnight
  • Makkah: 49°C daytime / 27°C overnight
  • Madinah: 36°C daytime / 24°C overnight

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

Tesla’s debut in the Kingdom takes place this Thursday at the Bujairi Terrace in Riyadh. The event will showcase the company’s electric vehicles, solar-powered products, and new technology, including an autonomous taxi and humanoid robot.

ALSO- US Energy Secretary Chris Wright will visit the Kingdom over the weekend, as part of a two-week Middle East tour that will also start in the UAE tomorrow and include Qatar, Reuters reports, citing a source it says is in the know. Wright lands in the region ahead of an anticipated visit by US President Trump to the Kingdom that is slated for mid-May.

PSAs-

Today’s your last chance to weigh in on the draft guide for off-plan real estate sales and leasing, the Real Estate General Authority (Rega) said in a post on X. The guide, currently available for public consultation on the Istitlaa platform, outlines licensing procedures, developer requirements, and regulatory obligations for off-plan projects. Rega’s simplified guide is available here (pdf).

ALSO- Citizens can directly apply for residential land in newly developed areas through the Royal Commission for Riyadh’s soon-to-be-launched digital platform, according to a statement on Sunday. The commission warned against relying on mediators or third-parties, with further details and updates set to be released.

IN CONTEXT- The Kingdom is rolling out a comprehensive set of real estate reforms to address land shortages, improve rental regulations, and curb rising property prices. The plan includes offering 10k to 40k serviced residential plots annually, priced at a maximum of SAR 1.5k per sqm. The measures are part of a broader push to enhance Riyadh’s real estate market.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Saudi Arabia is restructuring and developing its aviation sector as part of a broader national transportation and logistics plan aimed at increasing the number of destinations connected to Saudi airports, Transport Minister Saleh bin Nasser Al Jasser told Al Ekhbariya in an interview yesterday (watch, runtime: 2:07).

The plan includes transitioning from a single national airport operator model to one with two major national carriers. It also covers fast-tracking the construction and design of the King Salman International Airport, alongside upgrades to arrival lounges at various airports, with development projects planned for airports in Jazan, Abha, Al Baha, Hail, Al Jouf, Taif, and others.

ICYMI- The King Salman International Airport — an expansion of the capital’s King Khalid International Airport — is poised to be one of the world’s largest, set to accommodate up to 120 mn passengers by 2030 and 185 mn by 2050. Officials announced In June plans to open the airport’s private aviation terminal in 2026, a passenger terminal in 2028, and its “iconic terminal” by 2030.

French President Emmanuel Macron reiterated his plan to co-chair a conference with Saudi Arabia on the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict In a press conference with the Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi in Cairo (watch, runtime: 23:46), Macron said the conference — which was announced last December to be held in June — will “be prepared in close coordination with regional partners.”

Palestinian statehood has been a friction point: The Kingdom has long publicly insisted on assurances for a credible path to a Palestinian state before engaging in any normalization of ties with Israel.

SPORTS-

United World mulls sports fund: United World Group is mulling a sports investment fund worth up to SAR 1 bn, Aleqtisadiah reports, citing Chairman Prince Abdullah bin Mosaad (LinkedIn) at the Sports Investment Forum. The fund will be capitalized with a 20% contribution by the group, and the rest by unnamed investors, as part of a new investment strategy that will focus on European football clubs while divesting away from India and the UAE, the chairman was quoted as saying.

DATA POINT- The sports sector’s market value reached SAR 32 bn in 2024, adding SAR 5 bn in the last six years and aiming to hit SAR 80 bn by 2030, Aleqtisadiah separately reported, citing a statement from the Investment Ministry during the forum.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Tariffs — and the global market turmoil they have sparked — are still the dominant theme across global business pages, though we also have news of impending US-Iran nuclear talks getting attention.

Markets continued to reel yesterday from the uncertainty around tariffs, with the S&P 500 entering the bear market briefly as it fell 20% from its peak — though stocks later saw a seven-minute rally as rumors on social media of a potential 90-day pause on tariffs circulated. The rally helped recover USD 2.5 tn in equity value, though that was later erased during the day. The story is everywhere in the global business press: CNBC | Reuters | WSJ

Trump threatened an additional 50% tariff on China after the country slapped a 34% retaliatory tariff on American imports, vowing to hike tariffs if they don’t backtrack on their countertariff by tomorrow midnight. The additional levy would bring total tariffs on Chinese imports to 120%. He also confirmed there would be no pause on tariffs, but said he would be open to negotiations with some countries. (FT | Bloomberg | Reuters)

The European Commission is also considering a retaliatory tariff of 25% on a range of US goods in response to President Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium, Reuters reports, citing a document it had seen.

MEANWHILE- Trump said the US and Iran will begin direct talks on Iran’s nuclear program on Saturday, saying if they don’t go well, Iran could be in “grave danger.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that indirect high-level talks would be held in Oman in an X post. (Reuters | Bloomberg)

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