Non-oil exports up 13.1% in January + US imposes 10% tariffs on our exports

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Flynas cleared for IPO + Trump to visit the Kingdom in May?

Good morning, wonderful readers. We’re back in your inbox after a long hiatus that we hope you enjoyed with family and friends. It was very eventful, too: Trump’s “liberation day” saw tariffs imposed on all imports (including ours), and OPEC+ unexpectedly raised oil production more than three times originally planned.

In this morning’s news well, we delve into latest trade figures from Gastat, and sweeping real estate reforms that aim at opening up the sector for more private investments. We also have a flurry of last-minute 2024 earnings. Let’s dive in.

WEATHER- Riyadh is cloudy, while Makkah is expected to experience rain, and Madinah will see thunderstorms.

Riyadh: 37°C daytime / 24°C overnight
Makkah: 39°C daytime / 27°C overnight
Madinah: 38°C daytime / 27°C overnight

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

The EFG Hermes One on One kicks off tomorrow morning in Dubai. More than 200 companies from 29 countries attended last year’s iteration, meeting with 670 fund and portfolio managers from 250 global institutions.

It’s difficult to imagine a more opportune time for an EM-focused equities conference given the turmoil roiling markets as US President Donald Trump sets out to shake the foundations of the post-Second World War economic order. The gathering runs through Thursday.

Egypt’s Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk and CBE Deputy Governor Rami Aboulnaga are on stage tomorrow morning for the headline panel, followed by a UAE-focused panel discussion and the gathering’s customary EFG Hermes Live Research Poll. We’ll have full coverage all week long.

Want to catch up for coffee during the One on One? Hit reply to this email and let’s see if our schedules intersect.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Flynas cleared for IPO: Budget airline Flynas received approval from the Capital Market Authority (CMA) to proceed with an IPO that will see it offer 51.26 mn shares, representing a 30% stake, according to a statement. A prospectus for the offering is yet to be published.

We’ve been expecting it: Plans to go public this year were confirmed by the Kingdom Holding Company’s CEO Prince Al Waleed Bin Talal on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum. The airline had initially planned to make its market debut last year, having tapped Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Saudi Fransi Capital for the offering in late 2023.

IN CONTEXT- The listing would be the Gulf's third airline IPO — and the first in nearly two decades — following UAE’s Air Arabia and Kuwait’s Jazeera Airways.

About Flynas: The low-budget airliner is a private equity-backed company, operating over 1.5k weekly flights, servicing 139 routes to connect 30 countries with a 61-aircraft fleet.

ALSO- Specialized Medical Company received approval from the CMA to offer a 30% stake on Tadawul, according to a statement. The hospital operator must complete the offering of some 75 mn shares within six months, pending the publication of a prospectus.

US President Donald Trump signaled he might be visiting Saudi Arabia as early as next month during a presser at the Oval Office (watch, runtime: 3:41). Mid-May is pegged as the potential timeframe for the trip, four sources told Reuters.

On the agenda: The visit will focus on finalizing USD 1 tn in Saudi investments in the US, discussing the Russia-Ukraine war and the Gaza conflict, and exploring an expansion of the Abraham Accords — though The Kingdom’s involvement remains uncertain.

REMEMBER- Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had initially pledged an additional USD 600 bn investment package to the US over the next four years. Trump, however, had his sights set on a larger figure of USD 1 tn.

Homegrown auto distributor Jameel Motors and China’s Chongqing Changan Automobile plan to enter the South African market later this year, Bloomberg reports, citing statements from the two companies. The Abdul Latif Jameel Group subsidiary will invest ZAR 500 mn (USD 27.2 mn) to open 50 showrooms and offer Changan’s SUVs, pick-ups, sedans, and Deepal electric vehicles to Africa’s largest automotive market in 4Q 2025.

Saudi has growing interest in South Africa: Aramco is among the bidders for Shell’s downstream assets, while Zahid Group is negotiating to increase its stake in Barloworld.

OIL WATCH-

Eight OPEC+ countries agreed to raise oil production more than three times originally planned, according to a statement from the group. The 411k barrels per day increase fast-tracks three months’ worth of phased output hikes originally set to begin in April as part of the group’s plan to gradually unwind 2.2 mn bbl/d of voluntary cuts through September 2026.

The group said the move reflects “healthy market fundamentals” and a more positive demand outlook — though it emphasized that the hikes “may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions.” The countries included Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman.

The rationale? The decision comes after Kazakhstan continued to report record figures at the oil pump and Iraq failed to comply with production cuts, Reuters reported on Friday, citing three unnamed sources. During a video conference held on Thursday, Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman also cautioned that non-compliance with production targets will lead to further increments, calling the unexpected May rise an “aperitif,” said another unnamed source to Bloomberg.

The news saw Brent continue to fall in the markets, reaching a four-year low and collapsing around 14% to reach USD 65.58 a barrel by the end of trading on Friday. Adding fuel to the fire was the US’ imposition of blanket tariffs and the prospect of reciprocal tariffs from China, the EU, and other major trading partners.

SPORTS-

PGA Tour turned down a USD 1.5 bn investment by the Public Investment Fund (PIF) into its for-profit entity PGA Tour Enterprises, ESPN reported, citing unnamed sources. The offer was reportedly made with the condition that Liv Golf — PGA Tour’s PIF-backed rival league — remain intact, a stipulation the PGA Tour was unwilling to accept.

BACKGROUND- PGA Commissioner and golfer Adam Scott recently asked US President Donald Trump to mediate merger talks with Liv Golf “for the good of the game,” following an Oval Office meeting in February attended by PIF Governor Yasir Al Rumayyan. “Hopefully, the two tours are going to merge,” Trump was quoted as saying by the Associated Press.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The international business press is still trying to make sense of Trump’s tariffs that began to come into play over the weekend, with the US now collecting a 10% universal tariff on Saturday on most imports from dozens of countries, with further “reciprocal” tariffs of up to 50% on 57 major trading partners — including a 34% levy on Chinese goods — set to kick in on Wednesday. Countries across the globe are already starting to fight back, including China, which announced a 34% tariff on all US goods starting 10 April export controls on seven rare earth minerals used in high-tech manufacturing.

Trump’s tariff announcements on Wednesday triggered the worst week for global equities since the onset of the COVID pandemic, leading to the S&P 500 losing 9.1% through the week — including a 6.0% fall on Friday alone — erasing USD 5.4 tn in market value and the Nasdaq down more than 20% from its December peak. Exchanges outside the US fared little better, with the UK’s FTSE 100 losing 7.0% in the week and the EURO STOXX 50 down 8.2%. (Financial Times | Reuters | Bloomberg | Guardian)

Also ranking highly in this morning’s digital front pages are protests across the US against the sitting administration, with tens of thousands of demonstrators taking to the streets in all 50 states to protest Trump’s cuts to federal agencies, deportation crackdown, economic tariffs, and attack on civil liberties. (New York Times | Guardian | Reuters | Bloomberg)

Non-oil exports up 13.1% in January + US imposes 10% tariffs on our exports

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports rose 13.1% y-o-y in January 2025, according to the latest data from the General Authority for Statistics (Gastat) (pdf). Total non-oil exports — including re-exports — were up 10.7% y-o-y, aided by a 5.7% increase in re-exports value and a 2.4% increase in merchandise exports over the same period. Meanwhile, imports increased 8.3% y-o-y in January 2025, and the surplus of the merchandise trade balance declined 11.9% y-o-y.

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EXPORTS BREAKDOWN-

Non-oil exports maintained their lead across imports, with the ratio of non-oil exports to imports rising to 36.5% in January 2025, compared to 35.7% in the same month a year ago.

Chemical products accounted for 23.7% of non-oil exports, increasing 14.4% y-o-y. Plastics, rubbers, and their derivatives followed, making up 23% of non-oil exports, with a 10.5% y-o-y rise.

Machinery, electrical equipment, and parts were the most sought after by importers, making up 25.9% of total imports — up by 27.4% y-o-y. Transportation equipment and parts followed, accounting for 13.8% of total imports, with a 10.3% y-o-y increase.

China remains #1 on the trade list: The Kingdom’s merchandise exports to China made up 15.2% of our total exports in January 2025, followed by India (10.9%) and Japan (10.2%). Meanwhile, Chinese goods accounted for just over a quarter (26.4%) of total Saudi imports over the same period, followed by the US (8.3%), and the UAE (5.5%).

ON THE OIL FRONT- Oil’s share of total exports dropped by 2.1 percentage points y-o-y to 72.7% in January 2025, as total oil exports fell 0.4% y-o-y during the same period.

US SLAPS THE KINGDOM WITH 10% TARIFFS-

The latest trade numbers come as the US imposes a 10% tariff on all the Kingdom’s exports, as part of sweeping protectionist measures against all imports.

The Kingdom joins Arab neighbours such as the UAE, Egypt, Qatar, Bahrain, Morocco, Oman, Yemen, Sudan, Kuwait, and Lebanon. However, not everyone in the region was as fortunate, with Syria set to face a 41% tariff, Iraq a 39% tariff, Libya a 31% tariff, Algeria a 30% tariff, Tunisia a 28% tariff, and Jordan a 20% tariff.

It’s still unclear how the tariffs will affect trade relations. Our trade deficit with the US increased 121.6% y-o-y to USD 443.3 mn in 2024, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative. The US exported USD 13.2 bn to the Kingdom in 2024, down 4.8% y-o-y. Meanwhile, imports (which will face the 10% tariff) reached USD 12.7 bn, a 19.9% y-o-y decline.

Riyadh is getting serious about real estate reform — and it’s starting with the north

Saudi Arabia launched a set of real estate reforms aimed at expanding land availability, improving rental regulations, and reining in soaring property prices in Riyadh. A new royal directive published in the official gazette Umm Al Qura will see the government lift land freezes in the north of the capital and introduce an overhaul to the White Land Tax Law, in addition to new rental regulations aimed at balancing the landlord-tenant relationship.

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The details: Land freeze has been lifted on 81.5 sq km in northern Riyadh, as the new directive lifted the suspension on land sales, development, subdivision, and building permits in two newly activated zones totaling 33.2 sq km — adding to 48.28 sq km that were previously reactivated. The newly released zones are located north of King Salman Road and are bordered by Abu Bakr Al Siddiq Road, Prince Khalid bin Bandar Road, and the neighborhoods of Al Aarid and Al Qirawan.

Plots will be offered: Plans will also see the government offer some 10-40k serviced residential plots annually over the next 5 years at a maximum of SAR 1.5k per sqm. The new plots will be allocated to married citizens or individuals over the age of 25 who do not currently own any real estate assets. Buyers will be prohibited from selling, renting, or mortgaging their purchased plots for 10 years, unless it is for financing construction.

BUT- If the lands are not developed within this period, they will be reclaimed at the original purchase price, reads the directive.

Where to start? The Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC) is preparing to launch a digital platform through which citizens can apply for residential land in the newly released areas — set to be launched “soon,” according to a statement. The RCRC has also been tasked with providing planned and developed residential plots and monitoring real estate prices in Riyadh while submitting regular reports.

The rationale: The moves are being positioned as “a step that enhances fairness and attractiveness in Riyadh’s real estate market,” which would guarantee justice for all parties involved and boost investment in a transparent and efficient manner, Commerce Minister Majid Al Qasabi told Al Arabiya. Meanwhile, Economy Minister Faisal Al Ibrahim said the reforms would “enable the private sector to participate in quality development, creating housing and infrastructure with high urban standards.”

What’s next? The Kingdom is giving itself 60 days to amend the White Land Tax Law — aimed at encouraging faster development on vacant land, and 90 days to issue fresh regulations that will govern the landlord-tenant relationship.

REMEMBER- The Kingdom’s real estate price index rose 2.3% y-o-y in 2024, while apartment prices rose 10.6% and villa prices rose 6.3%. The rise in housing costs, particularly rent, was the primary driver behind the rise of the Kingdom’s annual inflation last year, reaching a peak of 2.0% in November.

ALSO- Riyadh’s real estate prices have been driving investors to its peripheries: Investors have started shifting focus to the capital’s outskirts on the back of real estate prices climbing to record highs in the capital city due to a demand-supply gap, fueled by population growth far outpacing urban expansion — which has been significantly ramped up under Vision 2030.

Future Vision prices Nomu IPO at SAR 7 a piece

FutureVision for Health Training priced its upcoming Nomu offering of 2 mn shares at SAR 7 apiece, amounting to 20% of its post-IPO capital, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The Capital Market Authority approved the company’s plan to list its shares on the parallel market in December, with the company announcing its IPO plan last month.

Use of proceeds + timeline: The health training provider is standing to rake in SAR 14 mn in proceeds, of which SAR 2 mn will cover offering expenses, while the rest will go to developing the company’s assets. Qualified investors can subscribe to a minimum of 100 shares and a maximum of 499k shares, starting today until Thursday, 10 April.

Post-IPO structure + lockup: Following the offering, major shareholders are expected to see their combined ownership drop to 53.97% from 67.46%, and they will be unable to sell their shares for 12 months.

About Future Vision: Founded in 2019, Future Vision specializes in vocational training and education in Riyadh, Jeddah and Madinah, offering certified courses accredited by the Saudi Commission for Health Specialities and life support programs approved by the American and Saudi Heart Associations.

ADVISORS- Yaqeen Capital is the financial and lead manager. Receiving agents include Derayah Financial, Alinma Investment, Al Rajhi Capital, SNB Capital, BSF Capital, Riyad Capital, ANB Capital, Alistithmar Capital, Albilad Capital, AlJazira Capital, GIB Capital, Alkhabeer Capital, SAB Invest, and Sahm Capital.

A flurry of 2024 earnings

MBC GROUP-

MBC Group’s net income rose 515.2% y-o-y to SAR 426.1 mn in FY 2024, pushed by a 30.7% y-o-y rise in gross income, the firm said in an earnings release (pdf). Meanwhile, revenue increased by 13.1% to SAR 4.2 bn, buoyed by gains in broadcasting and other commercial activities (up 21% y-o-y) and its streaming platform Shahid (up 27.9% y-o-y), despite a 19.8% y-o-y decline in advertising from delayed revenue recognition of completed projects.

REMEMBER- The Public Investment Fund (PIF) is the majority shareholder of MBC, after acquiring Istedamah Holding’s entire 54% stake for SAR 7.5 bn under a binding share sale and purchase agreement last year. The move was part of the PIF’s shift in strategy towards domestic investments.

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SADARA-

Sadara Chemical Company saw its net losses increase to SAR 4 bn in FY 2024, up from SAR 3.5 bn in the previous year, mainly due to an accounting adjustment that had a positive impact on the previous year’s financials, the company’s subsidiary Sadara Basic Services said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Meanwhile, revenues were up 8.2% y-o-y at SAR 11.5 bn during the year as a result of the impact of a major hydrocarbon turnaround on sales volume in FY 2023.

CENOMI RETAIL-

Cenomi Retail saw its net loss narrowed to SAR 197.5 mn in 2024, down from SAR 1.1 bn the year prior, driven by stable gross margins, a 23.2% decrease in selling, general, and admin expenses, and a 4.2% reduction in net finance costs, according to an earnings release (pdf).

Meanwhile, the company’s revenues were up 3.7% y-o-y at SAR 4.8 bn during the year, with mixed performances across its sectors. Local retail revenues fell 1.7% y-o-y due to the optimization program, while international operations grew 26.5%, led by strong results in Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Uzbekistan. The food and beverage segment saw a 13.5% drop, and online sales fell 2.9%.

A red flag from the auditor: The auditor flagged material uncertainty regarding the company’s ability to continue as a going concern, citing its SAR 1.61 bn in accumulated losses —140% of capital — and its current liabilities exceeding current assets by SAR 2.92 bn.

In 4Q 2024, the company’s net losses shrank to SAR 149 mn from SAR 1 bn in the same quarter a year earlier, mainly due to accounting adjustments. Revenues grew 14.3% y-o-y to SAR 1.32 bn during the quarter.

ENTAJ-

Arabian Company for Agricultural and Industrial Investment (Entaj Foods) reported a 56.8% y-o-y drop in net income to SAR 27.1 mn in 2024, according to its earnings release (pdf). The decline was driven by a 20.5% rise in the cost of sales, SAR 25 mn in depreciation linked to capacity expansion, SAR 9 mn in finance costs, and an SAR 8 mn impact from bio-asset revaluation and impairments. The company expects margins to recover in 2025 as recent investments and farm-level efficiencies begin to yield results.

MEANWHILE- Revenues rose 13.2% y-o-y to SAR 1.2 bn during the year, supported by a 14.3% increase in poultry sales (96% of total revenue) and a 56.5% rise in egg revenue (3% of total revenue).

ALSO- Entaj’s board recommended distributing SAR 15 mn in dividends for 2024 at SAR 0.5 per share, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The distribution date is yet to be announced.

TADWEER-

National EnvironmentalRecycling (Tadweer) saw its net income grow 40.2% y-o-y in 2024 to SAR 36.2 mn on the back of improved production efficiency, tighter cost controls, and lower operational expenses from replacing rental assets with owned assets, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. Meanwhile, the company recorded a 27.6% y-o-y growth in revenues during the year to SAR 806 mn, supported by the launch of a new production line and better utilization of existing lines.

SAUDI RESEARCH AND MEDIA GROUP (SRMG)-

Saudi Research and Media Group (SRMG) saw a 64% y-o-y drop in net income to SAR 201.7 mn in FY 2024 due to provisions for expected credit losses on trade receivables and impairment losses on goodwill, property, plant, equipment, and spare parts inventory linked to its printing and packaging segment, it said in a disclosure to Tadawu l. Revenues also fell 12.9% y-o-y to SAR 3.3 bn during the period on the back of declines across multiple operating segments, including PR and advertising, publishing and visual and digital content, and printing and packaging.

SAMCO-

The Saudi Marketing Company (Samco) saw its net income rise 16.7% y-o-y to SAR 25.4 mn in FY 2024, while revenues inched up 1.2% y-o-y to SAR 1.8 bn, driven by healthier returns from its entertainment segment and newly opened branches during the year, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul.

SMASCO-

Saudi Manpower Solutions (Smasco) saw its net income fall 24% y-o-y to SAR 126.4 mn in FY 2024, while revenues grew 3.6% y-o-y to SAR 1.9 bn over the same period, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul.

MIS-

Al Moammar Information Systems (MIS) posted a 785.7% y-o-y increase in net income to SAR 124 mn in FY 2024, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The company’s revenue declined 16.92% y-o-y to SAR 1.2 bn during the period, impacted by a drop in some operations and a change in its role as principal and agent.

ALSO- MIS will distribute SAR 96 mn in dividends for FY 2024 at SAR 3.2 per share, it said in a separate disclosure. The eligibility date is 9 April, with distribution set for 23 April.

Elm secures SAR 1.9 bn financing to fuel acquisitions

DEBT WATCH-

#1- PIF-owned Elm lined up a SAR 1.9 bn shariah-compliant loan with the Saudi National Bank (SNB), according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The homegrown digital solutions provider will use the five-year facility to finance corporate expansion and acquisitions.

REMEMBER- Elm’s board approved its acquisition of the PIF’s full stake in Thiqah Business Services in a SAR 3.4 bn transaction, following a share purchase agreement signed in January. Elm also agreed to a term sheet to raise its stake in Smart National Solutions to 40% in February.

#2- SHL Finance Company secured a SAR 200 mn renewed shariah-compliant loan from Bank Aljazira, with 125% of the outstanding balance of the facility covered by receivables, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The five-year financing, to be renewed annually, is aimed at driving the company’s expansion and sales growth.

ICYMI- SHL Finance renewed a SAR 1.9 bn shariah-compliant credit facilities agreement with Arab National Bank (ANB) last month.

OIL & GAS-

Aramco is eyeing investment in two planned Indian state-owned refineries, as it seeks long-term stable outlet for its crude oil in the world’s fastest growing emerging market, Reuters reported, citing Indian sources it says are in the know. Aramco is reportedly proposing to supply crude equivalent to three times its stake in each of the Bharat Petroleum Corp and Oil and Natural Gas Corp ventures — a condition Indian refiners have called “not possible,” a source told the newswire. An agreement may be reached ahead of Indian PM Narendra Modi’s expected visit to the Kingdom in 2Q 2025.

ALSO- Japanese drone services startup Terra Drone signed an MoU with Aramco to begin test runs later this year for inspecting Aramco’s facilities, with actual operations expected to begin in 2027, the company said in a press release. If officially awarded, the contract would be Terra Drone’s largest to date for drone inspection of oil and gas facilities, which marks a more enhanced inspection process than Aramco’s current method which requires two to three weeks for manual inspections.

Terra Drone entered the Saudi market in 2023 after securing USD 14 mn from Aramco’s VC arm Wa’ed Ventures. The drone startup has been conducting inspections and surveying for other firms in the Middle East. The story also got ink from Reuters.

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M&A WATCH-

Alareeb acquires 30% of Pioneer Landmarks: Alareeb Holding completed the acquisition of a 30% stake in local engineering consultancy services company Pioneer Landmarks, according to a statement on LinkedIn. This follows a joint MoU signed in February and is part of Alareeb's plan to grow in the consultancy sector and expand regionally. The transaction’s value was not disclosed.

ENERGY-

Mitsubishi Power + Doosan Enerbility to supply turbines for two IPP projects: Mitsubishi Power and Doosan Enerbility secured orders to supply six M501JAC gas turbines and related equipment for the Rumah-1 and Al-Nairyah-1 independent power plant (IPP) projects, the company said in a press release. The turbines will be assembled locally in Mitsubishi's Dammam factory.

REMEMBER- The Rumah-1 and Al-Nairyah-1 plants, located in the Central and the Eastern Provinces, each have a production capacity of 1.8 MW, with both making up for nearly 2.5% of the national grid’s capacity. Acwa Power owns a 35% stake in both plants, with the Saudi Electricity Company and Korea Electric Power Corp. (Kepco) also as shareholders.

Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs spark retaliation from China, trigger market sell off

Trump follows through with protectionist measures: US President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday a universal 10% tariff on all US imports, and higher reciprocal tariffs on specific countries, as he vowed to liberate the US from the “looting, pillaging, and raping” of the US by other countries.

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Who is targeted? The US slapped China with a 34% tariff, taking the total tariff on Chinese imports to 54%. It also targeted the EU with 20%, Vietnam with 46%, and Taiwan with 32%. The higher reciprocal tariffs will begin on 9 April, while customs agents have already begun collecting the baseline 10% tariff since yesterday.

A slight reprieve: Mexico and Canada will not be subject to tariffs beyond the 25% announced earlier. Products like steel, aluminum, and auto parts will also be exempt from the reciprocal tariffs and only subject to the previously announced levies.

China strikes back, others might soon follow: The move is set to ignite a global trade war after decades of liberal trade measures from the US, with trading partners widely expected to retaliate. Beijing led the pack with a 34% tariff on all goods imported from the US, with the EU expected to follow soon. Other countries are attempting to negotiate their way out of the measures, including Vietnam, whose president To Lam had a “ productive call ” with Trump, and will meet to negotiate a trade deal soon.

Off to bumpy start? Trump’s announcements on Wednesday triggered the worst week for US equities since the onset of the Covid pandemic, leading to the S&P 500 losing 9.1% through the week — including a 6.0% fall on Friday alone — erasing USD 5.4 tn in market value and the Nasdaq down 22.7% from its December peak.

Tech stocks in particular had a rough week, with chip maker Nvidia dipping 10.3% throughout the week and Apple seeing its share price fall 13.3% throughout the same period. Companies with significant exposure to China also saw a sell off, while recession fears drove investors to sell shares in banks and energy companies.

Exchanges outside the US fared little better, with the UK’s FTSE 100 losing 7.0% in the week and the EURO STOXX 50 down 8.2%. Further afield, Japan’s Nikkei 225 clocked a 7.3% decline during the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng recorded a 3.5% fall, while Korea’s Kospi and China’s Shanghai index survived the week in a better shape — albeit still in the red.

Investors across the globe are looking to government bonds as a way to guard against market volatility. Ten-year US Treasury notes saw yields fall 12.2 basis points to a six month low, while government debt instruments in Germany and elsewhere also saw their yields drop significantly. “A lot of investors I've talked to have just said in this kind of environment, let's go to cash and just wait it out,” Cherry Lane Investments Partner Rick Meckler told Reuters.

Some are already warning of an incoming recession, including Barclays Global Research Chair Ajay Rajadhyaksha, who told the Financial Times that “if the reciprocal tariffs are not walked back by April 9, which I don’t think they will be, you will probably be looking at a recession in the United States and the European Union.” Fed head Jay Powell is also warning that the tariffs will lead to “higher inflation and slower growth,” limiting the reserve’s monetary policy wriggle room with a growing concern that the country could enter into a period of stagflation.

The uncertainty also loomed over IPOs and M&A transactions: Swedish fintech Klarna, US-Based Chime and Stubhub all delayed IPOs or roadshows, Reuters reports. Market uncertainty, higher debt costs, and valuation risks are making it harder to close deals, an unnamed senior banker told the news agency.

TASI	11,883	-1.2% (YTD: -1.3%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,504	-1.3% (YTD: -0.3%)
NomuC	30,641	-1.4% (YTD: -2.7%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	5.0% repo	4.5% reverse repo
EGX30	31,700	-1.0% (YTD: +6.6%)
ADX	9,187	-0.8% (YTD: –2.5%)
DFM	4,951	-1.5% (YTD: -4.0%)
S&P 500	5,074	-6.0% (YTD: -13.7%)
FTSE 100	8,055	-5.0% (YTD: -1.4%)
Euro Stoxx 50	4,878	-4.6% (YTD: -0.4%)
Brent crude	USD 65.58	-6.5%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.84	-7.3%
Gold	USD 3,035.40	-2.8%
BTC	USD 82,917.00	-1.4% (YTD: -11.4%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 1.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 5.5 bn. The index is down 1.3% YTD.

In the green: Fitaihi Group (+9.7%), Zamil Indust (+6.6%) and Zain KSA (+5.0%).

In the red: Tadco (-8.6%), Entaj (-7.6%) and Raydan (-7.4%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 2.7% yesterday on turnover of SAR 35.4 mn. The index is down 2.7% YTD.

In the green: Horizon Educational (+13.1%), United Mining (+10.0%) and NBM (+9.0%).

In the red: Alqemam (-14.9%), Albattal Factory (-12.9%) and Leen Alkhair (-12.6%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Gulf Ins. Group’s BoD recommended a SAR 63 mn dividend distribution for FY 2024 at SAR 1.2 per share, according to a filing to Tadawul. The move is still pending shareholders’ and regulatory approval, after which a distribution date will be set.

Banque Saudi Fransi’s BoD recommended a share buyback of up to 15 mn treasury shares, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The bank will use its own resources to fund the move, and the shares will be allocated to the share-based employee remuneration plan. The move is pending shareholders’ and regulatory approvals.

HorizonFood’s BoD approved the company’s transition to the main market from the parallel market, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Financial Al Istithmar Capital was appointed as advisor for the transition, pending approval from the Capital Market Authority.

Wasata Capital was appointed as financial advisor to oversee the capital reduction of Tihama Advertising, according to a filing to Tadawul.

Tabuk Agricultural Development’s (Tadco) BoD recommended a 52.9% capital reduction through the cancellation of 20.7 mn shares, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The operation will shrink the company’s capital to SAR 184.4 mn to offset accumulated losses. The proposal is still pending regulatory and shareholders' approval, with a financial advisor yet to be appointed.

Crown Prince meets Sudan’s Al Burhan in Makkah

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met with Sudan’s Sovereign Council President Abdel Fattah Al Burhan in Makkah on Friday, 28 March, the Saudi Gazette reports. The two leaders discussed the latest developments in Sudan and efforts to bring peace and stability to the country. They also agreed to form a coordination council to strengthen mutual ties.

CALENDAR

APRIL

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh.

10 April (Thursday): Tesla launch event, Bujairi Terrace, Riyadh.

3-20 April (Thursday-Sunday): AFC Asian U17 Cup.

13-14 April (Sunday-Monday): Human Capability Initiative (HCI) Conference, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

13-16 April (Sunday-Wednesday): EdgeX HCI, The Ritz Carlton, Riyadh.

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah, Riyadh.

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): Umrah and Ziyarah Forum, King Salman International Convention Center, Madinah.

14-15 April (Monday-Tuesday): MESH Core Riyadh Conference for Innovation in Healthcare, Riyadh

17-23 April (Thursday-Wednesday): 11th edition of the Saudi Film Festival, Dhahran.

18-20 April (Friday-Sunday): Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, Jeddah Corniche Circuit, Jeddah.

21-24 April (Monday-Thursday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh.

22-23 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): AAM Middle East, Riyadh.

23-25 April (Wednesday-Friday): Construction and Real Estate Development Exhibition, Jazan.

25 April- 3 May (Friday-Saturday): AFC Champions League Elite Finals, Jeddah.

28 April- 30 April (Monday-Wednesday): Automechanika Riyadh, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh.

29 April (Tuesday): Deadline to submit feedback on proposed amendments to the rules for special purpose entities (SPEs).

MAY

May: The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Global Awards 2025 announces its results.

3 May (Saturday): Canelo Alvarez vs William Scull, Anb arena, Riyadh.

5 May (Monday): Opec+ meeting.

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

9 May (Friday): PFL Mena Season 2 Kick-off

12-15 May (Monday-Thursday): Saudi Smart Manufacturing, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-14 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global EV & Mobility Technology Forum, The Arena, Riyadh.

19-20 May (Monday-Tuesday): Tech-ecO-System Summit (ToSS), Riyadh.

23 May (Friday): Guns N’ Roses Show, Riyadh.

31 May-5 June (Saturday-Thursday): Hajj.

JUNE

6-9 June ( Friday-Monday): Eid Al Adha.

17-18 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

26 June (Thursday): 2024-2025 academic year ends.

30 June (Monday): Deadline for Cancellation of Fines and Exemption of Financial Penalties Initiative by the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (Zatca).

JULY

July: The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Global Awards 2025 awards ceremony, Geneva.

31 July (Thursday): Deadline for companies with SAR 2.5 mn or more in 2022/2023 revenues to integrate e-invoicing solutions with Fatoora.

29-30 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

AUGUST

5-17 August (Tuesday-Sunday): Fiba Asian Cup.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Money 20/20 Middle East, Riyadh.

17-18 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

23 September (Tuesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

3-9 November (Monday- Sunday): WTA Tour Finals.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday) The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh Front Convention & Exhibition Centre, Riyadh.

27-30 November (Thursday-Sunday): The World Rally Championship (WRC), Jeddah.

DECEMBER

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): International Conference on Nuclear Emergencies, Riyadh.

4-13 December (Thursday-Saturday): Red Sea International Film Festval, Jeddah.

December: The Fortune Global Forum 2025, Riyadh.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

2026

UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

2027

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.

Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

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