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IsDB closes USD 1.75 bn sukuk issuance

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: EV maker Lucid will export 92% of its production + CMA approves IPOs on Tadawul, Nomu

Good morning. We’re halfway through Ramadan’s third workweek, and we have a meaty issue for you today, with bustling activity in debt and IPO markets. The region is also witnessing tremors as Israel broke the ceasefire agreement early in the morning and launched vicious attacks on the Gaza Strip with hundreds of casualties.

In this morning’s news well: IsDB closed USD- denominated sukuk issuance, and Saudi Kayan secured multi-bn murabaha facilities to refinance outstanding debt. Meanwhile, iconic Egyptian bakery brand TBS is gearing up for expansion to the Kingdom.

WEATHER- Riyadh and Madinah will be partly cloudy today, while Makkah will continue to experience thunderstorms.

  • Riyadh: 28°C daytime / 17°C overnight
  • Makkah: 38°C daytime / 26°C overnight
  • Madinah: 32°C daytime / 19°C overnight

PSAs-

Drivers have until Friday 18 April to pay off traffic fines at a 50% discount before they return to full price, the General Department of Traffic said in a post on X.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

PIF-backed luxury EV maker Lucid will export 92% of its EV production with 13% earmarked for GCC markets, Asharq Business reported citing VP and Managing Director of the Middle East division Faisal Sultan’s interview with Arab News. The new factory – to be completed by the end of 2026 – will have the capacity to produce 150k cars once operational.

There’s more: The company is also in talks to establish a battery recycling facility, and is planning to open more locations in the country, particularly in the Dammam and Al Khobar areas, Sultan added. Lucid will consider sourcing its EV batteries from a local partner as well, but global players will likely be involved.

REMEMBER- Saudi is angling to become a global automotive industry hub: PIF has been actively investing in EV makers and the automotive value chain for some time as part of its diversification agenda, including investing multiple times in Lucid. The fund also launched its own EV maker Ceer in a JV with Taiwan’s Foxconn. In late 2023, PIF established a USD 550 mn JV with Italian tire manufacturer Pirelli to establish a Saudi plant with a production capacity of some 3.5 mn tires a year.

And Lucid is a pioneer: Lucid became the first global automaker to bear the “Made in Saudi”badge in January and exports its Saudi-made vehicles to other countries. The move came as the luxury EV maker prepares to ramp up production at its King Abdullah Economic City facility, set to roll out 155k EVs annually at full capacity.


MarketingHome Group received the Capital Market Authority’s approval to go public on Tadawul’s main market with a 30% stake, according to a statement from the authority. The company will be offering 4.8 mn shares with a prospectus expected to see the light “within sufficient time prior to the start of the subscription period.”

About the company: Established in 2006, MHG specializes in the trading and distribution of building materials, lighting, and ceramics. Currently, it operates 44 branches across the Gulf and Europe.

ALSO- Two companies secure approval for Nomu IPO: Qudra for Communications and IT secured approval to offer 18.2% of its capital — 5 mn shares — on the Nomu parallel market, Nomu, The CMA said in a statement yesterday. Hawyia Auctions was also approved to offer a 12% stake — 2.4 mn shares— on Nomu, the CMA said in a separate statement. Both offerings are limited to Qualified Investors, with the prospectuses to be published in advance.

About Qudra: The Riyadh-based firm provides parking management, RFID tracking, and identity management solutions for businesses and government entities in the Middle East. It was established in 2008.

About Hawyia: Founded in 2018, the company specializes in auctions, real estate management, and judicial custodianship, licensed by the Justice Ministry.


The Kingdom plans to convert 70% of its oil production into petrochemicals, leveraging its relatively low extraction and feedstock costs, Sukuk Capital financial analyst Faris Al Qahtani told Al Arabiya. Despite rising feedstock prices, Saudi petrochemical companies remain competitive on the global market thanks to government subsidies. Today, the sector accounts for 31% of non-oil exports, with a 4.7% of the global petrochemical market, exporting some 103 tons annually.

IN CONTEXT- Global chemical companies have been facing a rough patch due to rising costs and shrinking margins, with potential trade wars adding to recovery challenges. Local chemical giant Saudi Basic Industries Corp (Sabic) posted a SAR 1.54 bn in net income in 2024, rebounding from a loss, but falling short of expectations due to lower sales and continued geopolitical uncertainty.


SNB Capital can now conduct market-making activities on Nomu-listed pipes-maker Alwasail Industrial, after getting the greenlight from the exchange, according to a statement. The activities include maintaining a 50% order presence, a SAR 50k minimum order size and a 5% max price spread.

OIL WATCH-

Goldman Sachs cut its Brent crude forecasts to USD 65-80 a barrel, down from USD 70-85, driven by pressures on the US economy — posing risks for Opec+ and US shale producers, Bloomberg reported yesterday citing a note from the bank. While Goldman still sees crude staying above USD 70 in the near term, it “no longer sees USD 70 as the price floor,” head of commodities research Daan Struyven told the publication.

Goldman’s revision follows recent downgrades by peers: Morgan Stanley and Bank of America both see crude in the high USD 60s by 2H 2025, while Citigroup and JPMorgan expect mid-to-low USD 60s by year-end.

SPORTS-

Newcastle United ends 70-year trophy drought with Carabao Cup Victory: PIF-owned Newcastle overcame Liverpool 2-1 at Wembley Stadium on Sunday to take home the Carabao Cup, marking the club’s first taste of silverware in seven decades — just four years after the PIF took over the club.

The play-by-play: Goals from Dan Burn and Alexander Isak were enough to beat The Reds, who failed to mount a comeback following a Federico Chiesa goal four minutes into stoppage time. The Toons currently sit sixth in the league table with a game in hand, just two points off a Champions League spot and 13 points behind league leaders Liverpool.

REMEMBER- A PIF-led consortium took over Newcastle in a USD 408 mn transaction back in 2021, before the PIF bought out former owner Amanda Stavely, increasing its stake to 85% and pushing the club’s valuation to USD 1.3 bn. Since the takeover, the PIF funneled more than USD 1 bn into the club. Talks are currently underway for a fresh GBP 1.5 bn multi-sport 70k-seater stadium, which would be England’s second-largest club ground.


The Kingdom will see the launch of the FIFA/CIES InternationalProgramin SportsManagement in the coming months under a partnership agreement involving the Saudi Arabian Football Federation (SAFF), the International Center for Sports Studies (CIES), and King Saud University, according to a statement.

About FIFA/CIES: The program is a global sports management course offered in partnership with several universities worldwide, providing training in sports law, marketing, finance, and event management. It aims to develop professionals in the sports industry by combining academic knowledge with practical insights from FIFA and CIES experts.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Israel breaks ceasefire agreement: Israel launched several strikes across Gaza earlier this morning, breaking the fragile ceasefire agreement. The attacks killed at least 200 and marked the “most violent air attacks” since mid January when the ceasefire came into effect. The Israeli army and the Shin Bet said in a joint statement that they kicked off attacks on what they claimed to be Hamas targets.

Hamas and Israel won’t see eye to eye: Hamas on Monday accused Israel of violating the agreement — brokered by Egypt,Qatar, and the US — and failing to hold its end in the first phase. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said that resuming the war came after “Hamas refused time and again to release our hostages and rejected all the proposals it has been given by US envoy Steve Witkoff and by the Qatari and Egyptian mediators.” (Bloomberg | Reuters | Axios | AP)

AND- Trump threatens Iran over Houthi attacks: US President Donald Trump warned that any further Houthi attacks will be seen as an Iranian assault, vowing to hold Iran responsible. “Every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of Iran,” Trump said in a post on his social media platform Truth, vowing that Iran will “suffer the consequences, and those consequences will be dire.” (Bloomberg | Reuters | AP)

ALSO MAKING HEADLINES- Trump to discuss Ukraine ceasefire with Putin today: Trump is set to speak with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin about a potential ceasefire in Ukraine. “What's happening in Ukraine is not good, but we're going to see if we can work a peace agreement, a ceasefire and peace, and I think we'll be able to do it,” Trump told reporters yesterday. The talks come after Ukraine accepted a 30-day, US-backed ceasefire proposal last week. (Reuters | New York Times | BBC | The Guardian | Washington Post | AP)

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2

DEBT WATCH

IsDB closes USD 1.75 bn sukuk issuance

The Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) closed its first global debt issuance of the year, raising USD 1.75 bn in a USD-denominated sukuk sale as part of its USD 25 bn Trust Certificate Issuance Program, according to a press release. The offering pushed the bank’s total issuance volume beyond the USD 50 bn mark and saw participation from a broad investor base, including buyers from the Middle East, Europe, Asia, and offshore US accounts.

Where will the money go? IsDB said it will use proceeds from the debt sale to finance its social and economic development projects and initiatives in some 57 member countries.

About the offering: The five-year issuance was priced at par, meaning the coupon rate and yield are identical. It offers a fixed annual return of 4.211% paid in two equal semi-annual installments and is structured under the wakalah format.

ICYMI- The Jeddah-based multilateral lender raised USD 2 bn from its first benchmark sukuk issuance last year, which was priced at a fixed annual yield of 4.754%, before closing two more FCY sukuk sales later last year, lining up USD 1.25 bn and EUR 500 mn in October 2024.

IN CONTEXT- Global sukuk issuances are forecast to hit USD 190-200 bn this year, despite the spillover of geopolitical volatility in key sukuk markets. As global liquidity conditions improve, FCY-denominated sukuk are set to account for USD 70-80 bn of the total volume this year, compared to USD 72.7 bn in 2024.

ADVISORS- BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole CIB, Dubai Islamic Bank, GIB Capital, HSBC, KFH Capital, Nomura, Santander, and SMBC served as joint lead managers for the issuance.

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DEBT WATCH

Saudi Kayan secures murabaha facilities to refinance SAR 8.1 bn in outstanding debt

Tadawul-listed Saudi Kayan Petrochemical lined up SAR 8.1 bn in new murabaha facilities to refinance its total outstanding debt, extending maturities to 2034 from an initial payment deadline of 2027, the Sabic subsidiary said in a filing to the exchange. Procedures to settle and replace the firm's loans will be finalized today, with the financial impact of the refinancing scheme expected to appear in the company’s 1Q earnings.

IN CONTEXT- The Sabic unit has reduced its total outstanding debt to SAR 8.1 bn as of December of last year — through a mix of refinancing, extension of earlier loans, and early repayments — bringing it down from SAR 34.4 bn during the construction phase of its facilities, the disclosure read.

SOUND SMART- A murabaha facility is a shariah-compliant loan alternative in which a bank purchases assets on behalf of a client and sells it back at a pre-agreed earning margin, with payments made in installments. Unlike conventional loans, murabaha avoids charging interest and instead structures the transaction as a cost-plus sale, in line with Islamic finance principles.

ADVISORS- Saudi National Bank (SNB), Banque Saudi Fransi, and Alinma Bank acted as lead managers for the facility.

ICYMI- The Jubail-based chemicals producer narrowed its net loss to SAR 1.8 bn last year, down from SAR 2.1 bn in 2023, benefiting from higher average selling prices. Revenue increased 6.8% y-o-y at SAR 8.7 bn over the same period.

IN OTHER DEBT NEWS-

Nomu-listed Shalfa Facilities Management lined up one-year SAR 75 mn credit facilities from the Saudi Investment Bank, to back project guarantees, site preparation, and working capital needs, it said in a filing to the exchange.

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IPO WATCH

Entaj Foods’ share price jumps 30% in main market debut

Arabian Company for Agricultural and Industrial Investment’s (Entaj Foods) share price jumped the maximum 30% on its Tadawul debut, to close at SAR 65 apiece on its first day of trading up from its final IPO price of SAR 50, according to market data.

The company’s shares are allowed to fluctuate within a ±30% band, with a static fluctuation band of ±10% on the first three days of trading. Starting from the fourth day, shares will be allowed to trade at ±10% as circuit breakers take effect, and the static fluctuation limit will be removed.

BACKGROUND- The Riyadh-based poultry producer’s selling shareholder Arabian AgricultureServices (ARASCO) raised SAR 450 mn in proceeds through the sale of the 30% stake, closing at 208.4x oversubscription.

THE IPO PIPELINE AHEAD-

Key Tadawul listings to watch out for in 2025:

  • The PIF’s Saudi Global Ports has tapped banks including Goldman Sachs and HSBC to arrange an upcoming IPO;
  • PIF-backed Tabreed District Cooling has also reportedly hired Citigroup and SNB Capital to manage a potential IPO on Tadawul;
  • Medical procurement firm Nupco — a unit of the PIF — has reportedly tapped Rothschild & Co as financial advisor for its potential Tadawul IPO;
  • Budget airline Flynas is reportedly looking to go public this year;
  • BNPL platform Tabby plans to IPO during the 2025-2026 window;
  • Local tech services firm Ejada Systems has secured approval from the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) last month to take a 45% stake to market.

Zooming out: A total of 38 companies and 22 funds are planning to list across the region this year, signaling continued investor confidence in MENA markets. Saudi Arabia is set to lead the charge with 26 upcoming public offerings.

5

EXPANSION

Egypt’s TBS Holding to set up shop in KSA alongside Saudi’s Shahia Investments

TBS’s baked goods are coming to Saudi Arabia: Iconic Egyptian bakery brand TBS Holding is set to open a commercial-scale bakery in the Kingdom in partnership with homegrown food and beverage player Shahia Investments after the two companies inked a strategic partnership, according to a joint statement (pdf). The project, whose first phase is slated to kick off in 2026, aims to capture growing demand for baked goods in the Kingdom and has received assistance from the Saudi Investment Ministry.

Some details are still under wraps: Company representatives were not immediately available to discuss the project’s value, how it would be phased out, or the respective roles of each partner.

What’s cooking? Baked goods produced by the factory will include frozen products. Under the agreement, TBS will supply Shahia brands — such as Dunkin’, which it franchises here — as well its clients in the food and beverage sector.

Saudi is a hotbed of growth: “We consider our entry into the Saudi market as the beginning of a new phase of growth, as we seek to provide high-quality bakery products that meet the needs of the Saudi market,” said TBS Holding Chief Investment Officer and co-founder Sameh El Sadat. Shahia is looking to grow its market share in the Kingdom and outside as it expands in the nation’s bakery sector.

Further expansion in the cards? The partnership is a stepping stone for future expansion into the Gulf and European markets, according to the statement.

BACKGROUND- TBS was an overnight sensation back in 2008 after its summertime pop-up in Diplo on Egypt’s North Coast created a new market for high-end baked goods. It now employs more than 7k people and operates a portfolio of four brands. Its primary shareholder is Ayman Abbas, who invested in the company through his Intro Group in 2017. TBS is named for three partners — Tamer, Basel, and Sameh.

ADVISORS- Our friends at Beltone Holding were financing partner on the transaction, while Gen-X acted as financial advisor and Bayt Alnomow Capital served as the intermediary between the two companies. K&L Gates provided legal counsel to TBS Holding, while Al Zamil & Al Kharashi Law Firm offered counsel to Shahia Investments.

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REAL ESTATE

Dar Global puts down USD 390 mn for plots in Riyadh, Jeddah

Dar Global snaps up land plots for USD 390 mn: DarGlobal, the Dubai-based international arm of homegrown real estate developer Dar Al Arkan, acquired land plots in Riyadh for USD 297 mn and in Jeddah for USD 93 mn, it said in a filing to the London Stock Exchange.

The details: The Riyadh plots — acquired from Dar Al Arkan — include 190 parcels spanning a 466.9k sqm area, located in the north of the city near key landmarks and high-activity areas — and is set to be resold with a gross development value (GDV) of some USD 800 mn, according to the filing. Dar Global also landed 243 fully developed plots in Jeddah within a 863k sqm master planned-community from an unnamed local landowner, with the intention to sell directly to retail buyers at a projected GDV of USD 200 mn over the next two years.

The financing: The company will finance the acquisitions either through proceeds from the plots’ development or issuing new shares — or a mix of both — with payments to be wrapped up within 60 months of signing the definitive agreements.

REMEMBER- Dar Global has been busy lately: The real estate developer was set to launch its first Saudi project in Riyadh in partnership with jewelry brand Mouawad in November. The company’s expansion follows joint projects with the Trump Organization, including Trump Towers in Jeddah and Dubai, as well as a 3.5 mn sqm hotel project in Oman.

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CLIMATE

Environment Fund unveils SAR 1 bn green financing initiative

A new SAR 1 bn environmental initiative: The Kingdom’s Environment Fund launched a Riyad Bank-backed SAR 1 bn (USD 266.6 mn) financing initiative to support the environmental and meteorological sectors, state news agency SPA reported on Sunday. The program aims to increase the adoption of environmental technologies, attract private sector investment, and support research and innovation.

Not Riyad Bank’s first green initiative: In September 2024 alone, Riyad Bank closed a USD750 mn additional tier 1 capital USD-denominated sustainable sukuk issuance, contributed to the SAR 9.7 bn funding package provided to Acwa Power, PIF’s Water and Electricity Holding Company (Badeel), and Aramco subsidiary Aramco Power to develop three large-scale solar PV projects in the Kingdom, and inked a SAR 60 mn shariah-compliant bank facility with Tadweeer.

ICYMI- The Environment Fund also signed an agreement with the Small and Medium Enterprise Loan Guarantee Program (Kafalah) on Sunday to launch a loan guarantee program to help SMEs secure needed loans for their local environmental projects.

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MOVES

Liva taps Mohamed Altablooni as acting CEO

Liva Ins. appointed Mohamed Altooblani (LinkedIn) as acting CEO, effective 22 March, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. Altooblani, currently Liva’s CFO, brings over 17 years of experience in the ins. and reins. sectors, with previous senior finance roles at Chubb Mena and AIG Takaful Bahrain.

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EARNINGS WATCH

BinDawood’s net income inches up 1.9% in 2024, while 4Q sees 10.8% decline

BINDAWOOD-

BinDawood Holding’s net income inched up 1.9% y-o-y to SAR 280.2 mn in FY 2024, backed by an improved gross margin despite rising operating expenses, it said in an earnings release (pdf). Revenue was up 1.3% y-o-y at SAR 5.7 bn in the year, mainly on the back of the company’s SAR 186.5 mn takeover of Jumeirah Trading and healthier returns from its tech segment.

On a 4Q basis: BinDawood’s net income declined 10.8% y-o-y to SAR 109.7 mn in 4Q 2024, while revenues fell 1.8% y-o-y to SAR 1.4 bn. The company attributed its top line decline to its tech and retail segments which saw the closures of three stores.

Dividends: The company’s board approved distributing SAR 114.1 mn in dividends for FY 2024 at SAR 0.1 per share, set to be distributed on 29 May, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul.

REMEMBER- BinDawood and unnamed strategic partners are planning to invest SAR 1.5 bnfor expansion plans, which will see the firm roll out new e-commerce stores spanning 30k-50k sqm in several cities across the country, backed by smaller 2k-3k sqm distribution hubs.

ALDAWAA MEDICAL SERVICES-

Aldawaa Medical Services reported a 12.4% y-o-y increase in net income to SAR 370.1 mn in 2024, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. Revenue grew at a similar rate y-o-y to SAR 6.45 bn on the back of a significant expansion of the pharmacy business, a strong rise in distribution, and a 143% increase in logistics revenues.

In 4Q 2024, Aldawaa’s net income grew 12.4% y-o-y to SAR 103.8 mn, supported by higher gross income and expense control. Revenue increased 18.1% y-o-y to SAR 1.72 bn.

KINGDOM HOLDING-

Kingdom Holding saw its net income grow 22.1% y-o-y to SAR 1.24 bn in FY 2024, thanks to lower financial charges, tax reductions, cost savings, and gains from property sales, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. Meanwhile, revenue fell 11.6% y-o-y to SAR 2.39 bn, weighed down by lower dividend income and investment gains, despite higher hotel and other operating revenues.

ALSO- The BoD recommended a SAR 1 bn dividend distribution for 2024 at SAR 0.28 per share, it said in a separate disclosure. The distribution date has yet to be announced.

UNITED INTERNATIONAL TRANSPORTATION-

United International Transportation Company (Budget Saudi) saw its net income rise 12.4% y-o-y to SAR 311.7 mn in FY 2024, driven by improved fleet utilization and the integration of AutoWorld, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. Meanwhile, revenue was up 43% y-o-y at SAR 1.97 bn during the year, supported by fleet expansion and contributions from recent acquisitions, particularly frpom Overseas Development Company.

ALSO- The company will distribute SAR 78.2 mn in dividends for 2H 2024 at SAR 1 per share, it said in a separate disclosure. The distribution date has yet to be announced.

ARABIAN MILLS-

Arabian Mills’ net income rose 6.7% y-o-y to SAR 213.6 mn in FY 2024, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. Revenue grew 12.9% y-o-y to SAR 973.9 mn in the same period, supported by double-digit growth in wheat feed and bran, alongside steady flour performance.

YANBU CEMENT COMPANY-

Yanbu Cement’s net income grew 31% y-o-y to SAR 157.1 mn in FY 2024, on the back of lower selling and distribution expenses, and higher investment gains, it said in a disclosure to Tadawu l. Meanwhile, revenue grew 5.9% y-o-y to SAR 876.1 mn, as domestic growth offset foreign decline, boosting total production.

ALWASAIL INDUSTRIAL-

Alwasail Industrial’s net income grew 16.5% y-o-y to SAR 39.1 mn in FY 202, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The company logged a 3.2% y-o-y increase in revenue during the same period to SAR 460.1 mn, buoyed by increased sales in the pipes and fitting segments.

ALSO- The company’s board recommended distributing SAR 12.5 mn in dividends for 2H 2024 at SAR 0.05 per share, it said in a separate disclosure. The distribution date has yet to be announced.

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ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Retal signs SAR 493 mn housing contract in Riyadh

REAL ESTATE-

Retal inks SAR 493 mn housing contract: Retal Urban Development signed a SAR 493 mn, 30-month contract with its 80%-owned subsidiary Building Construction Company to build 371 residential units and develop infrastructure in Riyadh’s Sidra district, according to a disclosure to Tadawul.

ICYMI- Remal Al Khobar Real Estate, a JV 50% owned by Retal Urban Development, signed a SAR 450 mn contract on Sunday with Specialized Construction Company, a 40%-owned JV of Retal. The 15-month contract covers finishing and MEP works for Retal Rise and Nobu Hotel and Restaurant in Al Khobar.

M&A WATCH-

Almarai terminated its indirect acquisition of Jordan’s Hammoudeh Food Industries as “the seller was not able to meet certain conditions precedent,” it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The company said it remains open to future expansion plans to strengthen its regional presence.

BACKGROUND- Almarai’s subsidiary Teeba Investment for Developed Food Processing inked an agreement in October 2024 totake over the Jordan-based dairy producer Hammoudeh Food Industries for SAR 263 mn.

LOGISTICS-

Aramco’s Abqaiq oil facility to undergo engineering work: Aramco inked a SAR 257.5 mn contract with Kuwait’s Heavy Engineering Industries and Ship-building Company (HEISCO) for civil and mechanical work at Abqaiq oil facility, according to a statement on Boursa Kuwait. The project — which aims to enhance production efficiency — is set to be completed within 865 days.

The players: The Kingdom’s branch of Engineering for the Petroleum & Process Industries Company is the main contractor for the project, while Kuwait’s HEISCO will handle the civil and mechanical works for the later-scope stage of the project, the statement adds.

FINTECH-

Global payment services provider Checkout.com will integrate Tabby’s BNPL technology into its digital payments solutions under a partnership between the two firms, it said in a post on LinkedIn. The move aims to provide merchants with advanced tools to meet the growing demand for seamless and flexible payment options.

REMEMBER- Tabby is planning to IPO during this year or the next, but is yet to specify whether it will list on Tadawul’s main market or Nomu and the size of the stake it plans to take to market. The BNPL platform is also looking to relocate its HQ to the Kingdom from the UAE ahead of the IPO.

11

PLANET FINANCE

Brewing trade war to weigh on global growth, OECD says

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecasts slashed its global economic growth forecast on the back of persisting inflationary pressures and the potential upheaval in trade policies brought on by US President Donald Trump’s trade war, according to the OECD’s latest economic forecast (pdf). The Paris-based organization revised down its prediction for global growth in 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1% in 2025 — down from 3.2% in 2024 — before slowing further to 3.0% in 2026.

There’s a number of factors at play: Weakening business and consumer sentiments in some countries, coupled with rising uncertainty over economic policy indicators, have collectively contributed to the lowered growth prospects for the year. Meanwhile, “higher trade barriers in several G20 economies and increased geopolitical and policy uncertainty” are also weighing on investment and household spending.

The effects of slowed growth could appear soon: OECD sees global growth weakening in 1Q 2025, with consumer confidence having dipped early during the year, remaining “below long-run average levels despite strong growth in real incomes in many economies,” the report reads.

The big picture: GDP growth in the US is seen coming in at 2.2% in 2025 — down from a previous forecast of 2.4% growth this year — before slowing further to 1.6% in 2026. Growth in the euro area is projected to be 1.0% in 2025, down from a previous forecast of 1.3% growth, before rising to 1.2% in 2026. Meanwhile, China’s economy is expected to grow 4.8% this year, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous forecast, before slowing to 4.4% in 2026.

Inflation is also seen growing at a higher rate than previously expected, with annual headline inflation in G20 economies projected at 3.8% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026.

And higher inflation means…: Persistent inflation could “prompt more restrictive monetary policy and could give rise to disruptive repricing in financial markets.”

THE VIEW ON SAUDI-

The OECD expects the Kingdom’s GDP to grow by 3.8% this year, up 0.2 percentage points from its previous prediction in December. Economic growth is expected to slow slightly in 2026 to 3.6%.

Inflation is expected to come in at an average of 1.9% in 2025, up from last year’s 1.7%, before accelerating to 2.0% in 2026.

How this compares to other forecasts: The IMF and the World Bank slashed Saudi Arabia’s 2025 growth projections to 3.2% and 3.4% respectively, citing extended Opec+ production cuts. Meanwhile, S&P Global sees Saudi Arabia’s GDP growing by 2.8% in 2025, while Capital Economics penciled in a more optimistic prediction of 3.5%, citing anticipated oil output cuts, “but activity in the non-oil sector is likely to soften on the back of a turn to fiscal consolidation.”

MEANWHILE- Capital Economics expects the Kingdom’s headline inflation rate to hover around 2.0% y-o-y until 4Q, before slowing back down towards the 1.0% mark. The IMF sees inflation holding steady at 1.9% and 2.0% this year and the next, while Al Rajhi Capital sees inflation remaining stable at 2.1% in 2025 before cooling slightly to 2.0% in 2026.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are on the rise, tracking gains on Wall Street yesterday after US retail sales data helped ease investor concerns over a potential recession. Japan’s Nikkei and Topix are up 1.6%, while South Korea’s Kospi is up 0.6% and China’s CSI 300 gained 0.25%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is also up 1.9%.

Meanwhile, Wall Street futures point to another good day for US indices, with the Dow Jones up marginally and Nasdaq and S&P 500 seeing no change from yesterday.

TASI

11,883

+0.3% (YTD: -1.3%)

MSCI Tadawul 30

1,504

+0.6% (YTD: -0.4%)

NomuC

31,035

-0.8% (YTD: -1.4%)

USD : SAR (SAMA)

USD 3.75 Sell

USD 3.75 Buy

Interest rates

5.0% repo

4.5% reverse repo

EGX30

31,459

+0.4% (YTD: +5.8%)

ADX

9,451

+0.3% (YTD: +0.3%)

DFM

5,171

+0.6% (YTD: +0.3%)

S&P 500

5,702

+1.1% (YTD: -3.8%)

FTSE 100

8,680

+0.6% (YTD: +6.2%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,446

+0.8% (YTD: +11.2%)

Brent crude

USD 71.07

+0.7%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 4.00

-0.4%

Gold

USD 3,009

+0.1%

BTC

USD 83,982

+1.7% (YTD: -10.2%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 5.5 bn. The index is down 1.3% YTD.

In the green: Entaj (+30.0%), Retal (+7.2%) and Astra Industrial (+4.5%).

In the red: Naqi (-4.3%), Arabian Shield (-3.9%) and Ardco (-3.9%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.8% yesterday on turnover of SAR 50.8 mn. The index is down 1.4% YTD.

In the green: Apico (+27.0%), AlHasoob (+9.2%) and Naba Alsaha (+7.1%).

In the red: Keir (-13.6%), Sama Water (-7.0%) and Osool and Bakheet (-5.6%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Sadafco is distributing some SAR 288 mn in dividends for 2H 2024 at SAR 9.00 per share, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The eligibility date is set for 19 March, while distribution is scheduled for 10 April.

Alkhorayef Water and Power Technologies Company’s board also greenlit the distribution of SAR 52.5 mn in dividends for FY 2024 at SAR 1.50 a share, pending shareholders' approval at the next general assembly meeting, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The eligibility date will be the second trading day after the meeting, with the distribution date to be announced later.


MARCH

1-30 March: Ramadan.

18-19 March (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

31 March-3 April (Monday-Thursday): Eid Al Fitr (TBC).

31 March (Monday): Deadline for applying to theReal Estate General Authority’s Regulatory Sandbox Program.

31 March (Monday): Deadline for applying to the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Global Awards 2025

APRIL

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh.

3-20 April (Thursday-Sunday): AFC Asian U17 Cup.

13-14 April (Sunday-Monday): Human Capability Initiative (HCI) Conference, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

13-16 April (Sunday-Wednesday): EdgeX HCI, The Ritz Carlton, Riyadh.

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah, Riyadh.

17-23 April (Thursday-Wednesday): 11th edition of the Saudi Film Festival, Dhahran.

18-20 April (Friday-Sunday): Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, Jeddah Corniche Circuit, Jeddah.

21-24 April (Monday-Thursday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh.

22-23 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): AAM Middle East, Riyadh.

23-25 April (Wednesday-Friday): Construction and Real Estate Development Exhibition, Jazan.

25 April- 4 May (Friday-Sunday): AFC Champions League Elite Finals

28 April- 30 April (Monday-Wednesday): Automechanika Riyadh, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh.

MAY

May: The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Global Awards 2025 announces its results.

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

12-15 May (Monday-Thursday): Saudi Smart Manufacturing, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-14 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global EV & Mobility Technology Forum, The Arena, Riyadh.

19-20 May (Monday-Tuesday): Tech-ecO-System Summit (ToSS), Riyadh.

23 May (Friday): Guns N’ Roses Show, Riyadh.

31 May-5 June (Saturday-Thursday): Hajj.

JUNE

6-9 June ( Friday-Monday): Eid Al Adha.

17-18 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

26 June (Thursday): 2024-2025 academic year ends.

30 June (Monday): Deadline for Cancellation of Fines and Exemption of Financial Penalties Initiative by the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (Zatca).

JULY

July: The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Global Awards 2025 awards ceremony, Geneva.

31 July (Thursday): Deadline for companies with SAR 2.5 mn or more in 2022/2023 revenues to integrate e-invoicing solutions with Fatoora.

29-30 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

AUGUST

5-17 August (Tuesday-Sunday): Fiba Asian Cup.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Money 20/20 Middle East, Riyadh.

17-18 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

23 September (Tuesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

3-9 November (Monday- Sunday): WTA Tour Finals.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday) The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh Front Convention & Exhibition Centre, Riyadh.

27-30 November (Thursday-Sunday): The World Rally Championship (WRC), Jeddah.

DECEMBER

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): International Conference on Nuclear Emergencies, Riyadh.

4-13 December (Thursday-Saturday): Red Sea International Film Festval, Jeddah.

December: The Fortune Global Forum 2025, Riyadh.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

2026

UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

2027

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.

Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

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