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Ma’aden begins construction on SAR 28 bn phosphate facility in Wa’ad Al Shamal

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: AIIB mulls investments in Gulf rail connection project + FII Priority summit tomorrow

Good morning, wonderful readers. We have big news in today’s issue in the mining and logistics sectors, as well as the Kingdom hosting high-profile diplomatic meetings.

THE BIG STORIES HERE- Ma’aden began construction on its SAR 28 bn phosphate facility in Wa’ad Al Shamal, Dar Al Arkan and partners landed the biggest real estate auction this year, and Surj Sports snapped up a minority stake in UK-based Dazn. Let’s dive in.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- The Restatex Real Estate Exhibition kicked off yesterday at the Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center and runs until Thursday, 20 February, with participation from of 70 real estate, investment, banking, finance, engineering, and consulting firms, as well as government agencies will be in attendance. The platform will showcase real estate projects and investment prospects in the Saudi market.

#2- The three-day Capital Markets Forum — organized by Saudi Tadawul Group — kicks off today at Riyadh’s KAFD Conference Center, before moving to the Four Seasons Hotel Riyadh for the following two days.

** EnterpriseAM will be at the Forum in Riyadh, Tuesday to Thursday. Feel free to drop us a line at awahid@enterprisemea.com — we’d love to grab a coffee and chat about the latest in the industry.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

#1- The three-day FII Priority summit, hosted by the Public Investment fund in Miami, Florida, kicks off tomorrow. The event is set to bring together global financiers and tech executives, including TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew, Oracle CEO Safra Catz, as well as PIF governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan. The summit will also reportedly feature an in-person address from US President Donald Trump.

#2- Saudi and Omani business leaders are set to gather in Muscat tomorrow for the two day Saudi-Omani Joint Business Forum, according to a post on X by the Federation of Saudi Chambers (FSC). The event — which is run by the FSC and the Oman Chamber of Commerce and Industry — looks to increase investments between Saudi and Oman and will see two-way meetings, panels, and field visits with the participation of some 75 business leaders.

#3- The three-day Saudi Media Forum begins tomorrow in Riyadh and runs until Friday, 21 February, alongside the two-day Future of Media Exhibition (FOMEX 2025), bringing together industry leaders to explore advancements shaping the media landscape. The exhibition will host over 250 companies, showcasing innovations in broadcasting, digital content, and media infrastructure. Specialized zones will highlight AI, production technologies, and content creation.

WEATHER- A foggy Riyadh will see a high of 17°C and a low of 12°C, while Jeddah will see winds and a 30°C high and 20°C low. Meanwhile, Makkah is expecting a 33°C high and 22°C low.

PSAs-

#1- Zatca will refund Vat payments incurred while implementing public benefit projects, the authority said in a statement. Projects under the category include building mosques, healthcare centers, and educational facilities, among others. You can check eligibility and apply for refunds on Zacta’s website.

#2- Some 24 ready-built factories in Al Ahsa’s First Industrial City are now up for grabs via Modon’s new early booking service, Modon said in an X post. Applications can be submitted here.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is mulling investments in a Gulf rail connection project, AIIB President Jin Lee Chun told Asharq Business, adding that the bank is in talks with regional finance ministers. The bank is also looking to support the development of regional infrastructure projects and drive a transition to carbon neutrality in the Gulf, Chun added.

REMEMBER- The massive project lines up with Saudi Arabia’s ongoing land bridge project, which is set to connect the Kingdom’s Red Sea coast to that of the Arab Gulf. The Saudi Railway Company (SAR) awarded a consortium that includes US-based construction management firm Hill International, Italian consulting firm Italferr, and Spanish engineering firm Sener the contract to manage the construction of the USD 7 Riyadh-Jeddah land bridge megaproject in late 2023.


#2- PIF looks to boost its private-sector links by increasing its contributions to local logistics and transport outfits by 60% by the end of this year, Bakr Al Muhanna, head of transport and logistics for Mena investments at PIF, told Argaam. The fund is specifically eyeing up potential investment options in the maritime transport, ports management and operations, and logistics sectors, aiming to sreamline the procurement of raw materials, manufacturing and distribution.

Adding on to a long list: The PIF already owns shares in the National Shipping Company (Bahri), Jeddah Islamic Port-operator Red Sea Gateway Terminal, and holds a 51% stake in Dammam Port-operator Saudi Global Ports. The fund also set up Folk Maritime last year to support the Kingdom’s maritime transport operations, Al Muhanna added. The PIF-backed firm is lining up a multi-mn USD fleet expansion over the next five years. The PIF also snapped up a 40% stake in Zamil Offshore Services to support the Kingdom’s maritime logistics sector last year, with plans lined up to upgrade its fleet and launch its services in new markets.


#3- Saudi Arabia is financing Yemen’s USD 1 bn economic program with the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF), according to a statement from the AMF. The agreement, signed on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies, aims to restructure Yemen’s debts with the AMF. The restructuring allows Yemen continued access to AMF resources.

#4- RawasiAlbina Investment’s board greenlit the company’s decision to transition to the main market, it said in a filing to Tadawul. The SAR 55 mn company’s move is still subject to CMA approval and to fulfilling requirements.

DATA POINTS-

Saudi Arabia Railways hit new highs in 2024: Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) transported some 13.7 mn passengers in 2024, up 22% y-o-y, according to a SAR statement on X. Passenger trains also bolstered operations by 19% y-o-y to record over 35.6k trips, as well as transporting 2.2 mn pilgrims during the Hajj season. The Kingdom’s freight operations were boosted by 15% y-o-y during the year, transporting 28.5 mn tons of goods and minerals.

OIL WATCH-

Is Opec+ mulling another delay of supply hikes? Opec+ is mulling another delay of a series of monthly supply increases that are set to begin in April, with some fearing that global markets are too unstable to absorb a production increase, Bloomberg reports, citing unnamed delegates. A final decision is expected in the coming weeks. Another decision to postpone the 120k bbl / d production increase would mark the fourth time that the group has decided to put off rolling back production caps which first came into effect in 2022, the business news information service said.

Russia denies prospects of another delay: Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak insisted that Opec+’ plan to restore a total of 2.2 mn bbl / d through monthly increases extending into late 2026 “remains the same,” Bloomberg said.

It’s not just Russia: Three unnamed Opec+ delegates told Reuters that so far there have been no talks on delaying the increase, with one adding that oil markets will be braced to absorb extra supply starting April due to the tightening of sanctions and increasing demand from China. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley and other analysts expect Opec+ to increase output levels.

REMEMBER- Opec+ began withholding 5.85 mn bbl / d, or 5.7% of global supply, via a series of cuts beginning in 2022 with the aim of supporting markets. The latest extension of output cuts through 1Q 2025 delayed production increases until April. The UAE was also allowed an increase of its production by 300k bbl / d from April 2025 instead of the beginning of the year as previously agreed.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Anxiety and anticipation continue on the international landscape this morning, as intricate negotiations over Ukraine, Gaza, and Lebanon continue to dominate headlines.

Ukraine summit stokes EU disagreements: The Paris-hosted crisis meeting saw European leaders clash over sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, a suggestion put forward by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer earlier. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called the discussion “an incomprehensible debate at the wrong time”, while Italian PM Georgia Meloni doubted the measure’s effectiveness.

EU leaders are scrambling to get on the Ukraine peace train, as senior US and Russian officials are set to meet in Riyadh today to lay the groundwork for a Trump-Putin summit aimed at ending the Ukraine war. (FT | Axios)

MEANWHILE- US, China butt heads over Taiwan: “We do not support Taiwan independence,” said a phrase removed from the US State Department website earlier this week in a claimed “routine” update. The removal elicited a rebuke from Beijing, which called it a “serious regression” on the issue, urging the US to “immediately correct its mistakes” or risk “further serious damage.” (Semafor | CNN)

CLOSER TO HOME- Israel will remain in five “strategic” spots inside Lebanon, in what Beirut deems a violation of the withdrawal mandated by the ceasefire agreement, due today. Israel, on the other hand, claims truce commitments including disarm Hezbollah were not fulfilled. (Bloomberg)

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2

MINING

Ma’aden begins construction on SAR 28 bn phosphate facility in Wa’ad Al Shamal

The Northern Borders Province inaugurated projects worth a combined SAR 29 bn at the Wa’ad Al Shamal City for Mining Industries, state news agency SPA reports. These include Saudi Arabia Mining’s (Ma’aden) Wa’ad Al Shamal Phosphate 3 project — worth some SAR 28 bn — as well as a host of industrial, logistical, and service projects from Modon, with a combined value of SAR 550 mn.

The big ticket: Construction work kicked off at Phosphate 3 — which was among 12 private-sector projects selected for government incentives and support in 2023 under the Shareek program. The new mining hub is set to push Saudi’s phosphate production capacity to 9 mn tons per year, up from a combined capacity of 6 mn tons from Phosphate 1 and Phosphate 2.

ICYMI- Saudi Arabian Mining (Ma’aden) signed three construction agreements worth over USD 922 mn for its third phosphate fertilizers project in Wa’ad Al Shamal and Ras Al Khair last January. The contracts came a month after the PIF-backed company acquired Mosaic Phosphates BV’s full 25% stake in the Ma’aden Wa’ad Al Shamal Phosphate Company joint venture, raising Ma’aden’s ownership in the JV to 85%.

MEANWHILE- The Saudi Authority for Industrial Cities and Technology Zones (Modon) is kicking off industrial, logistical, service, and infrastructure projects worth a combined SAR 550 mn at Wa’ad Al Shamal. The projects include developments over a 4.3 mn area to attract investments, ready-made factories and support units, substations and overhead transmission lines, and a 7 km bridge connection to the International Road.

Living quarters are also getting an upgrade: The province also inaugurated expansion works at Ma’aden’s residential city in Wa’ad Al Shamal, where developments will see the addition of three buildings with 32 units. These come on top of 483 units representing the first phase of residential facilities in the city. The investment ticket for these expansions was not provided.

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REAL ESTATE

Dar Al Arkan, partners acquire SAR 4.46 bn land in Jeddah

Dar Al Arkan + partners land the Kingdom’s largest real estate transaction in 2025: Dar AlArkan Real Estate Development, in partnership with Kenzi Al Arabiya and a group of investors, secured a 1 mn sqm residential and commercial plot in Jeddah's Al Nahda district for SAR 4.46 bn at the Orchid Land Auction, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The sale, organized by Itqan Real Estate, has been the largest real estate transaction in Saudi Arabia this year.

A strategic location: The land's strategic location on the King Abdulaziz Road, situated between Makkah and Madinah, attracts potential investments due to high traffic, especially from pilgrims, Itqan’s Chairman Abdulaziz Al Rashid told Aleqtisadiah.

REMEMBER- Dar Al Arkan has been active: The Riyadh-based developer is also working on residential villas for the first phase of PIF-backed Roshn’s flagship Sedra project in Riyadh under a SAR 215 mn agreement it inked in April 2024. Meanwhile, the company is exploring further listings for its Dubai-based international arm Dar Global beyond the London Stock Exchange, with potential targets including the New York Stock Exchange, Chairman Yousef Al Shelash said last month.

Its international arm has been busy as well: Dar Global was set to launch its first Saudi project in Riyadh in partnership with jewelry brand Mouawad in November. The company’s expansion follows joint projects with the Trump Organization, including Trump Towers in Jeddah and Dubai, as well as a 3.5 mn sqm hotel project in Oman.

IN OTHER DAR AL ARKAN NEWS-

Dar Al Arkan fully redeemed its USD 600 mn sukuk, which involved 3k bonds with a par value of USD 200k apiece, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The company utilized internal resources to settle the sukuk, while HSBC Bank served as the paying agent for the transaction.

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M&A WATCH

Surj Sports Investment snaps up minority stake in Dazn

PIF’s Surj Sports Investment has picked up a minority stake in sports streaming service Dazn Group, according to a press release. Although the size of the stake acquired by Surj and the value of the transaction were not disclosed earlier reports put the investment ticket at USD 1 bn. Bloomberg also had the story.

A JV on the way? The two companies are also in talks to set up a broadcasting JV — dubbed Dazn Mena, in a bid to develop new windows that capitalize on Saudi’s growing sports sector. “As part of the Dazn Mena joint venture with Surj, Dazn is committed to maximizing the reach and accessibility of sports, while delivering the best entertainment experience to a global community of passionate fans,” CEO Shay Segev said.

REMEMBER- Surj was reportedly in advanced talks last month to invest at least USD 1 bn in Dazn. Negotiations between PIF and Dazn began last year, with the fund reportedly bidding to acquire a 10% stake in Dazn for USD 1 bn back in October. PIF denied those claims later that same month.

Saudi’s sports push seem to be paying off: The Kingdom’s sports sector contributed USD 6.9 bn to the Kingdom’s GDP in 2023 and is expected to add USD 16.5 bn annually (1.5% of GDP) by 2030, according to a report by Surj in December.

About Dazn: The UK-based streaming service broadcasts more than 90k live sporting events annually in over 200 markets. Dazn is part of a USD 35 bn investment portfolio by US private holding company Access Industries.

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LOGISTICS

Nupco inks SAR 2.5 bn financing agreements + supply chain MoUs

Nupco signs SAR 2.5 bn financing agreements: The National Unified Procurement Company (Nupco), PIF’s procurement arm, signed four MoUs worth SAR 2.5 bn to strengthen healthcare supply chains and improve medicine availability across the Kingdom, according to its post on Linkedin. The agreements — signed on the sidelines of the PIF’s Private Sector Forum — aim to expand financing options and improve cashflow for suppliers.

FINANCING SUPPLIERS-

The breakdown: The company signed a SAR 1 bn agreement with crowd lending platform Tameed to offer advanced financing options for SME suppliers, as well as a SAR 1 bn agreement with First Abu Dhabi Bank’s Saudi branch to provide suppliers with immediate financing at “competitive rates”. A SAR 500 mn agreement was also signed with Banque Saudi Fransi to provide financing for Nupco’s suppliers. No further details were disclosed.

Nupco also signed a partnership agreement with Saudi Cities Investment Gate (Furas) to facilitate suppliers' access to potential investments. No details were provided on the value of the agreement.

STREAMLINING SUPPLY CHAINS-

Nupco also inked six MoUs with Aramex, Smsa, DHL and UPS, among others, to streamline supply chain operations.

#1- Boosting last-mile services: Nupco inked an MoU with UAE-based freight forwarding and logistics outfit Aramex and another MoU with Smsa to collaborate on last-mile delivery by facilitating direct delivery of meds and specialized devices to patients, according to statements here and here. The firm also inked MoUs with international freight forwarding giants DHL and UPS to expand last-mile delivery and streamline supply chains of pharma products, according to a statement.

#2- Enhancing SME access to med supplies: The company also inked a cooperation agreement with the Kingdom’s Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) General Authority (Monsha’at) to boost the movement and delivery of medical supplies, according to a statement.

#3- Boosting medical logistics across zones with Modon: It also signed an MoU with Saudi Arabia’s Authority for Industrial Cities and Technology Zones (Modon) to establish logistics and industrial projects in the Kingdom. The pair is also looking to expand local participation in healthcare supply chains, according to a statement.

6

INFRASTRUCTURE

Hyundai E&C awarded USD 389 mn solar power transmission contracts from SEC

Hyundai E&C secures solar transmission project in Madinah + Jeddah: South Korea’s Hyundai Engineering& Construction (Hyundai E&C) landed two contracts — worth a combined USD 389 mn — from the Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) for the installation of 380 kV transmission lines delivering power from solar plants to substations in the Madinah and Jeddah, spanning a combined 491 km, according to a company press release Korean media outlets say they have seen (here and here).

More on the projects: The Madinah network will span 311 km, connecting a planned solar power plant in western Saudi Arabia to a substation near Madinah. Meanwhile, the Qurayyat network in Jeddah will extend 180 km, linking another planned solar plant in Qurayyat to an existing power grid near Makkah. The turnkey contracts will see Hyundai E&C overseeing all stages from design and procurement to construction, with completion penciled in for November 2027.

REMEMBER- Hyundai E&C is on a Saudi spree: Hyundai E&C secured a USD 713.9 mn contract from SEC in November to build a 369-km section of the 500-kV, 1.1k-km high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission line connecting Riyadh with Kudmi in southwestern Saudi Arabia, with the project slated for completion in January 2027. Later that same month, the South Korean infrastructure giant inked a SAR 777.2 mn two-year contract to procure 500 kV HVDC overhead transmission lines from Al Babtain Power and Telecom, with the agreement set to come into effect in 3Q 2025.

That’s not all: A Hyundai E&C-led consortium will reportedly be working on the second phase of Aramco’s Jafurah Gas Field. The outfit had secured a contract in 2023 to build an HVDC transmission line linking Neom with the southwestern port city of Yanbu.

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REGULATION WATCH

Rett law’s executive regulations up for public consultation

Zatca is out with executive regulations on the Real Estate Transaction Tax (Rett) law(pdf), which will be up for public consultation on Istitlaa until Saturday, 15 March. The proposed regulations aim to clarify tax scope and mechanisms for tax payment and collection, while also outlining exemptions criteria, procedures for tax refunds, as well as Zatca’s authority to re-evaluate tax obligations.

The details: All real estate transactions will be subject to a 5% tax, regardless of the transacted property’s status, form, or use at the time of transfer under the draft law. It applies whether the transaction involves the entire property or a portion of it, whether the property is individually owned or jointly owned, and whether the property is completed, under construction, or off-plan. The 5% tax also applies when real estate transactions are settled via share swaps.

The new regs also lay out mechanisms for taxation in usufruct agreements that extend past 50 years, whereby taxes will be calculated in terms of fair market value, or the agreed-upon consideration — whichever is higher. Taxes will also apply to transactions relating to build-own-operate-transfer (BOT) projects, with calculations based on the market value of the project on the ownership transfer date.

Tax exemptions can be dished out based on the following criteria:

  • Inheritance distributions carried out under Islamic law;
  • Property transfers to registered endowments or authorized charitable organizations;
  • Documented gifts between spouses and relatives (up to the third degree). However, the exemption does not apply if the property is subsequently transferred again by its new owner before a 3-year period;
  • Government expropriation for public use or temporary state requisition;
  • Real estate disposals resulting from M&As, subject to the condition that company shares will not be sold for a five-year period;
  • Property transfers between entities entirely owned by the same individual;
  • Transfers to a certified real estate developer in compliance with off-plan sales regulations.

The seller or their representative could apply for a tax refund in the event of overpayment, erroneous payment, incomplete transactions, or cancelled transactions. For incomplete transactions, any received payment must be refunded, and the authority must be notified within a designated time period. Refund requests can be submitted within 12 months of payment or 60 days from a final court ruling or settlement with the authority, through Zatca’s website.

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EARNINGS WATCH

Solutions’ net income grows 34% y-o-y in 2024 + Luberef sees a 36% drop

SOLUTIONS BY STC-

Arabian Internet and Communications Services Company (Solutions by stc) saw its net income grow 34% y-o-y in 2024 at SAR 1.6 bn, driven by higher gross income and lower operating expenses, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. Meanwhile, the company recorded 9.3% y-o-y growth in revenues during the year to SAR 12.1 bn, buoyed by better performance across IT Managed and Operational Services (up 21%), Digital Services (up 8.1%), and Core ICT Services (up 3.2%).

ALSO- The company’s board recommended distributing SAR 1.2 bn in dividends for 2024 at SAR 10 per share, it said in a separate disclosure to Tadawul. This includes SAR 952 mn in ordinary dividends (SAR 0.8 apiece) and SAR 238 mn in special dividends (SAR 2 apiece).

LUBEREF-

SaudiAramco Base Oilcompany’s (Luberef) net income droped 36% y-o-y in 2024 to SAR 972 mn, as base oils and by-products crack margins decreased, it said in an earnings release (pdf). Meanwhile, Revenues were up 5.8% y-o-y during the same period to SAR 10 bn, buoyed by higher sales volumes.

ALSO-The company’s board greenlit the distribution of SAR 518.2 mn in dividends for 2H 2024 at SAR 3.08 apiece, with the distribution date and eligibility criteria to be decided at the next company shareholders meeting, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul.

Looking ahead: Luberef will focus on the development of the Yanbu Growth II project, aiming to become the only regional producer of all three base oil groups and expand Yanbu’s total production capacity to 1.3 mn tn per year by the end of 2025. “The project is the cornerstone of our expansion strategy,” President and CEO Samer Al-Hokail said.

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ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Saudia to lease two new plots at Heathrow this year

AVIATION-

Saudia to snap two London Heathrow slots in 2025: Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) is looking to lease two of its slots at the PIF-backed London Heathrow to Saudia — formerly known as Saudi Arabian Airlines — this year, effective from 5 April until 25 October, PIA Spokesperson Abdullah Hafeez Khan told Arab News. The PIA has already filed a request for the slot transfer to global airport slot coordinator Airport Coordination Limited (ACL), after they were returned from Vietnam Airlines.

BACKGROUND- The Kingdom’s flagship airline Saudia is already leasing two slots from PIA under a revolving six-month contract, with the remaining eight slots on offer currently going to Turkish Airlines and Vietnam Airlines, Khan added. PIA began leasing out slots at European airports after the EU Aviation Safety Agency and restrictions by the UK blocked the PIA’s ability to operate in the zone in 2020 amid concerns over compliance with international aviation standards following a deadly plane crash. The ban was lifted in November.

INFRASTRUCTURE-

Al BabtainPower and Telecom inked a SAR 390 mn contract to supply steel towers to Larsen & Toubro for the construction of a 500 kV transmission line for the COA-SOA Interconnection Link, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The contract has a 24-month duration.

INS.-

The Ins. Authority launched a digital services platform dubbed “Taamen” to streamline license applications, it said in a statement. The new platform offers ins. companies several online services, including the application, approval, and renewal of licenses, approval of products, and management of agency contracts, among others. The platform is supported by 14 supervisory and regulatory tools to improve compliance and transparency in the sector.

FOOD-

The General Food Security Authority (GFSA) completed its first 2025 wheat tender, procuring some 920k tons, it said in a statement. A total of 15 wheat shipments — sourced from the EU, Black Sea, North and South America, and Australia — are set to arrive at different ports between May and July to replenish stocks and meet domestic demand.

ARTS-

The Saudi Film Commission joined the International Federation of Television Archives (FIAT/IFTA), a global organization dedicated to preserving audiovisual heritage, it said in post on X.

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PLANET FINANCE

Bondholders push back against the IMF’s Ethiopia debt assessment

Is the IMF undermining Ethiopia’s creditors in negotiations over the country’s defaulted USD bond? A group of investors holding Ethiopia’s defaulted USD 1 bn bond is accusing the IMF of downplaying the country’s economic recovery as a means to force the country’s creditors to offer Ethiopia a larger haircut on its debt, the Financial Times and Reuters report. The investors argue that a rise in gold and coffee exports has significantly strengthened Ethiopia’s financial position, making the IMF’s assessment of the country’s debt outlook unnecessarily pessimistic.

IN CONTEXT- Ethiopia went into default in December 2023 after skipping a USD 33 mn coupon payment on its only international government bond, which came amid a period of intense financial strain related to the country’s two-year civil war that ended in 2022 and the Covid pandemic. The country received a USD 3.4 bn IMF bailout in July 2024 to help with its default, with the key stipulations that the country liberalize its exchange rates and reduce its debt levels in line with its exports.

The IMF’s export estimates lie at the core of the current dispute: The bondholder committee — which represents investors holding some 40% of the defaulted USD bonds — says the IMF has “significantly undervalued” Ethiopia’s export rebound following the country’s currency devaluation last year. The Fund’s economic forecasts, they argue, “artificially imply a solvency issue which requires Ethiopia to seek greater concessions from its stakeholders in order to meet the IMF’s lending criteria,” essentially forcing lenders to accept a haircut on their payout.

It’s true that Ethiopia’s export numbers show signs of a recovery: Ethiopia’s exports more than doubled in 2H 2024 after the devaluation, reaching USD 3 bn off the back of a 60% rise in coffee exports to nearly USD 1 bn and a 700% jump in gold exports to USD 1.3 bn. Meanwhile, imports dipped slightly to USD 8.6 bn over the same period.

Still, the IMF has concerns about long-term debt sustainability: IMF staff have acknowledged that exports are ticking up, but insist that medium- to long-term growth will remain at 9-10% of GDP, leaving Ethiopia’s debt still “unsustainable and in distress,” according to a January press release (pdf). Because the IMF’s USD 3.4 bn bailout for Ethiopia requires the government to cut debts relative to exports, slower estimated export growth has provided the Ethiopian government a rationale to ask creditors to take larger losses on its defaulted bonds.

Ethiopia’s creditors, for their part, are refusing to take a haircut on the country’s debt. Last year, bondholders rejected the Ethiopian government’s offer to take an 18% haircut on its outstanding debt, arguing that the country's recovery didn’t warrant such a deep loss. However, debt advocacy groups — including Debt Justice, the Horn Economic and Social Policy Institute, and the African Forum and Network on Debt and Development — argue that bondholders turned down an “extremely generous” offer that would have still yielded returns of about a third on the bondholder’s investment.

The clash over Ethiopia’s debt highlights a growing divide in resolving sovereign defaults, with investors pushing back against the IMF’s influence on restructuring efforts from Sri Lanka to Zambia, the salmon-backed paper highlighted. While the Fund doesn’t involve itself in debt restructuring negotiations directly, its economic forecasts set their tone, shaping creditor expectations and — investors argue — tilting the balance toward deeper writedowns.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mixed in early trading this morning — Japan’s Nikkei is up 0.4% and the Hang Send is looking at gains of 1.0%, meanwhile the Shanghai Composite is down 0.3% and the Kospi is down 0.1%.

TASI

12,266

-0.9% (YTD: +1.9%)

MSCI Tadawul 30

1,522

-1.0% (YTD: +0.8%)

NomuC

31,645

-0.3% (YTD: +0.5%)

USD : SAR (SAMA)

USD 3.75 Sell

USD 3.75 Buy

Interest rates

5.0% repo

4.5% reverse repo

EGX30

30,437

0.0% (YTD: +2.3%)

ADX

9,557

-0.7% (YTD: +1.5%)

DFM

5,383

+0.4% (YTD: +4.4%)

S&P 500

6,115

0.0% (YTD: +4.0%)

FTSE 100

8,768

+0.4% (YTD: +7.3%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,520

+0.5% (YTD: +12.7%)

Brent crude

USD 75.28

+0.7%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.60

-3.3%

Gold

USD 2,911

+0.4%

BTC

USD 96,129

-1.1% (YTD: +2.8%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.9% yesterday on turnover of SAR 5.3 bn. The index is up 1.9% YTD.

In the green: Solutions (+4.8%), Shaker (+3.9%) and Burgerizzr (+3.7%).

In the red: Anaam Holding (-5.8%), Almawarid (-3.5%) and Almajed Oud (-3.3%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 51.1 mn. The index is up 0.5% YTD.

In the green: Alrazi (+9.2%), Obeikan Glass (+5.9%) and Qomel (+5.1%).

In the red: TMC (-9.8%), Dar Almarkabah (-9.4%) and Purity (-6.4%).

11

DIPLOMACY

Rubio touches down in Riyadh ahead of talks with Russian officials today

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio landed in the Kingdom yesterday, Reuters reports. Rubio is expected to discuss Trump’s proposal for Gaza — which entails the displacement of Palestinians to neighboring Arab countries — with Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, Reuters adds.

US-Russian talks start today: The US delegation includes Rubio, Trump’s National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and White House Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff, who also touched down in Riyadh yesterday, the newswire wrote. They will meet up with Russian FM Sergei Lavrov and Putin’s foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov, who were due to leave Moscow for Riyadh yesterday, Reuters said citing Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

Where’s Ukraine? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed his displeasure at not being invited to the talks and stated that Ukraine will not recognize any settlements reached without its involvement, Ukrainian news agency Interfax reports. Zelensky is scheduled to meet Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman in Riyadh tomorrow, in a trip unrelated to the US-Russia talks. He will also meet with US Envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg later this week to discuss a possible meeting with Trump, who confirmed earlier Zelenskiy will be involved in the anticipated talks, without providing further details.

Axios also had the story.


EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

1Q: BinDawood Holding expected to close 100% acquisition of Zahrat Al Rawdah Pharma.

FEBRUARY

15-18 February (Saturday-Tuesday): Week one of Big 5 Construct Saudi, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center.

16-17 February (Sunday-Monday): AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, AlUla.

17-19 February (Monday-Wednesday): IAAPA Middle East Trade Summit, Riyadh.

17-20 February (Monday-Thursday): Restatex, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center.

18-20 February (Tuesday-Thursday): The Capital Markets Forum, KAFD conference centre, and the Four Seasons, Riyadh.

19 February (Wednesday): Derayah REIT dividend distribution.

19-21 February (Wednesday-Friday): Saudi Media Forum, Riyadh.

19-21 February (Wednesday-Friday): FII Priority Miami, Miami, USA.

21-22 February (Friday-Saturday): The Saudi Cup, Riyadh.

22 February (Saturday): Founding Day.

22 February (Saturday): Dazn Boxing event: Beterbiev vs Bivol II, Riyadh.

23-27 February (Sunday-Thursday): Riyadh International Disputes Week, Hilton Riyadh Hotel Granada.

24 February (Monday):Public Sector Excellence Forum, Movenpick Hotel & Residence Riyadh.

24-25 February (Monday-Tuesday): The Riyadh International Humanitarian Forum, Riyadh.

24-27 February (Monday-Thursday): Week two of Big 5 Construct Saudi, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center.

MARCH

1-30 March: Ramadan (TBC).

18-19 March (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

31 March- 3 April (Monday-Thursday): Eid Al Fitr.

31 March (Monday): Deadline for applying to theReal Estate General Authority’s Regulatory Sandbox Program.

31 March (Monday): Deadline for applying to the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Global Awards 2025

APRIL

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh.

3-20 April (Thursday-Sunday): AFC Asian U17 Cup.

13-14 April (Sunday-Monday): Human Capability Initiative (HCI) Conference, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

13-16 April (Sunday-Wednesday): EdgeX HCI, The Ritz Carlton, Riyadh.

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah, Riyadh.

18-20 April (Friday-Sunday): Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, Jeddah,

21-24 April (Monday-Thursday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh.

22-23 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): AAM Middle East, Riyadh.

23-25 April (Wednesday-Friday): Construction and Real Estate Development Exhibition, Jazan.

25 April- 4 May (Friday-Sunday): AFC Champions League Elite Finals

MAY

May: The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Global Awards 2025 announces its results.

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

12-15 May (Monday-Thursday): Saudi Smart Manufacturing, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-14 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global EV & Mobility Technology Forum, The Arena, Riyadh.

19-20 May (Monday-Tuesday): Tech-ecO-System Summit (ToSS), Riyadh.

23 May (Friday): Guns N’ Roses Show, Riyadh.

31 May-5 June (Saturday-Thursday): Hajj.

JUNE

6-9 June ( Friday-Monday): Eid Al Adha.

17-18 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

26 June (Thursday): 2024-2025 academic year ends.

30 June (Monday): Deadline for Cancellation of Fines and Exemption of Financial Penalties Initiative by the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (Zatca).

JULY

July: The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Global Awards 2025 awards ceremony, Geneva.

31 July (Thursday): Deadline for companies with SAR 2.5 mn or more in 2022/2023 revenues to integrate e-invoicing solutions with Fatoora.

29-30 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

AUGUST

5-17 August (Tuesday-Sunday): Fiba Asian Cup.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Money 20/20 Middle East, Riyadh.

17-18 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

23 September (Tuesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

3-9 November (Monday- Sunday): WTA Tour Finals.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday) The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh Front Convention & Exhibition Centre, Riyadh.

27-30 November (Thursday-Sunday): The World Rally Championship (WRC), Jeddah.

DECEMBER

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): International Conference on Nuclear Emergencies, Riyadh.

4-13 December (Thursday-Saturday): Red Sea International Film Festval, Jeddah.

December: The Fortune Global Forum 2025, Riyadh.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

2026

UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

2027

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.

Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

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