Inflation rebounded slightly to 2.0% y-o-y in January 2025, up from 1.9% in December, according to the General Authority for Statistics’ (Gastat) latest consumer price index (pdf). This marks a continued overall upward trend for the Kingdom’s inflation figures over the last five months, with last month’s figures being the only decline in inflation since August.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices were up 0.3% on the back of a 0.3% uptick in the housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels category. Gastat’s full report on January’s average prices of goods and services is available here (pdf).

Rental prices were once again the culprit: The heaviest component in the Saudi consumer basket — housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels — saw an 8.0% y-o-y increase, primarily driven by a 9.7% rise in home rentals, in addition to a 7.7% hike in villa rentals.

Food prices also continued its upward move: A 5.6% y-o-y increase in vegetable prices drove food and beverage prices up by 0.8% y-o-y. Restaurants and hotels also rose by 0.8%, driven by a 3.1% y-o-y rise in the cost of hotel and furnished apartment services.

Education also felt the pinch, edging up by 0.6% y-o-y on the back of an 0.6% y-o-y increase in pre-primary and primary education costs.

A few items from the kingdom’s consumer basket cooled off: Furnishing and home equipment prices fell 2.4% y-o-y, driven by a 4.0% decline in furniture, carpets, and flooring prices. Meanwhile, clothing and footwear prices decreased by 1.5%, with ready-made clothing prices edging down 3.3%. Transportation costs also went down by 1.9%, as vehicle purchase prices witnessed a 2.8% decrease.

The figures came just above analysts’ expectations, with Capital Economics having penciled in a prediction that inflation would remain unchanged at 1.9% in January, according to a note seen by EnterpriseAM. Capital Economics sees the Kingdom’s headline inflation rate to hover around 2% y-o-y until 4Q, before slowing back down towards the 1% mark. Meanwhile, the IMF sees inflation holding steady at 1.9% and 2.0% this year and the next, while the Al Rajhi Capital sees inflation remaining stable at 2.1% in 2025 before cooling slightly to 2.0% in 2026.

WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX-

Producer prices were up 0.9% y-o-y in January 2025, on the back of a 1.5% increase in the prices of other transportable goods, except metal products, machinery, and equipment, as well as a 4.6% increase in the prices of agriculture and fishery products, according to Gastat’s wholesale price index (pdf). Meanwhile, January’s wholesale prices were up 1.7% m-o-m.

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